It seems to me what the result is telling us is merely Repugs' woulda-coulda-shoulda sentiments about McScum's VP choice in the current political and economic climate. With Romney, they think, the economic crisis wouldn't have hit their campaign this hard. The base feels Huck would have brought their value and real executive experience to the ticket. The 20% are... sexually aroused?

Buyers' remorse.

That's because their is a wing of the party that wouldn't want her at the top of the ticket.

To be meaningful, the poll should not have limited respondents to three choices. As a result, the Flat Earthers split between Huckabee and Palin, leaving the non-fundies with a plurality. If other possible contenders (such as Pawlenty, Jindal, or Giuliani) were available, I suspect Romney would not be first. However, I agree that the poll suggests even the wingnuts see Palin as a risky pick for 2012.

Yea Huck and Palin would be pulling from the same people, leaving Romney with the lead. We would crush Romney because he just doesn't seem authentic whatsoever.

Well if Obama is the President we expect him to be here, the 2012 Republican Candidate will be a sacrificial lamb and only fringy candidates or 65yo+ types will be actively trying to throw their hat in that ring.

Any up and comer they have (Jindal?) will hold out until 2016.

Huckabee has a personality that doesn't grate, and he plays the compassionate conservative with more feeling than chimpy. He sold Dobson, and that almost put him over the top, but the club for growth wing couldn't trust him on protecting the wealthy, ie. more cuts for the filthy rich.

If he came up with a few thousand more votes here in SC he would have been their nominee. He'll be back though the gop bench is thin right now.

2012? You must be joking. Palin is total toast....

How can 20% of polled Republicans think of Sarah Palin as a leading candidate for the 2012 nomination? What's the matter with them.

Pat Buchanan and his wife = 20%

Huckabee as top-gun, Palin makes Huck look reasonable. However, Huck really doesn't have any areas of expertise.

He has a free show on fox to shill his pac, but that also means he's going to say alot of shit he'll regret.

Romney can't win in the deep south. Given Huckabee and Romney will be about equal in strength -- it could be a real knock-down drag-out primary battle.

that's the core base 20%, no matter how bad the repugs to do they still get that 20%, Bush approval rating 20%, etc....although I am a little encouraged to see that the novelty is wearing off, the thought of having to hear from her in 2012 in any shape or form was aggravating me.

The primary in two years is going to be wide open. After getting wiped out this year the Republicans are going to turn to an unknown. Just a hunch.

http://pufferfish.typepad.com/

Rocky/CBS4 Colorado Poll: Obama 52 McCain 40

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/oct/24/rockycbs4-poll-obama-has-12-point-lead-state/

Sarah Palin is a clown. Four years from now, the details may not be clear, but the impression she left will be. She will be remembered as an utter buffoon. Sure she'll have devoted followers. There will always be people in this country who, inexplicably, think of George W. Bush as our best president. They'll keep telling you until the day they die that history will prove him right.

It's like the John Birch Society. It would have a resurgence every 10 or 20 years, but it never really gained too much steam. The far right nuts will try to promote Palin, but they won't get anywhere. There are too many people out there like me, who won't forget, that won't let them succeed. In fact, I'm not so sure she's even going to last through her term as governor. She might be hounded out of there.

Republicans don't like unknowns... someone did a work-up since 1950s...

The guy with the most juice is..

1.) Incumbent
2.) Runner-up from previous year
3.) former VP
4.) A Bush

So, it looks like Huckabee - Romney.

Other folks that will dabble ...
Lieberman (j/k)
Palin (started on 2016),
Jindal(started on 2016),
Allen,
Gov. from S.C.,
Crist (started on 2016),

none of those three will get the nomination next time.

in two years the republican brand will be on the rebound and by 2012 real competitors will throw their hats in the ring. it won't be the also-rans and last chancers who threw their clown shoes in this time.

huck will make another run, but if he gets the nomination the rift in the party will be insurmountable. might even destroy the party. club for growthers won't play second banana to the christer wing of the party. and they can't if the party wants to play in the show.

Palin will be thoroughly discredited when McCain loses by a huge margin. She will be blamed, not McCain, because that's what Republicans do. She will have a following among the fundies and will have a career as a talk show host and entertainer, probably on Trinity Broadcasting.

You know you're a bad candidate when you cause people to believe that the guy who wears special underwear is a "safer choice" than you.

I lived through the 84 ass kicking Mondale got. It would be nice if Obama were to return the favor on a republican next time. Hell bring Sarah on she'll do just fine. Even Nixon had a sort of redemption maybe she will get a free pass for her faith...

I get an empty feeling when I watch her though...something about her

Meh, I think there's plenty of competition for Palin among McCain's other options for VP. She doesn't look nearly as strong in the general election as she might seem in the primaries. Would she really even win the nomination? Frankly, she just makes Huckabee look a lot better.

Could it be that as she gives her first policy speech...On Special Needs Children, she doesn't even know the facts...How about that FRUIT FLY, lets cut that earmark! Got Darn it this woman is crazy...Palin did not specify what fruit fly research earmark she was referring to (presumably a grant for olive fruit fly research), but she is apparently unaware that scientific research with fruit flies has led to valuable discoveries that have boosted autism research, as a study at the University of North Carolina demonstrated last year:

[S]cientists at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Medicine have shown that a protein called neurexin is required for..nerve cell connections to form and function correctly.

The discovery, made in Drosophila fruit flies may lead to advances in understanding autism spectrum disorders, as recently, human neurexins have been identified as a genetic risk factor for autism.

The study of fruit flies has also been used for other autism research and “revolutionize[d]” the study of birth defects.
I just don't get MSM just let's thing FLY...As foster mother and a adoptive mom of Special Needs Children, Iam ashame she is even allowed to speak about such a delicate subject, and turn it into a disgrace...
Fact checking
"Palin is a confident and compelling spokesperson for special needs children. But what the campaign gains in charisma, it loses in credibility." For example, she talked about "reprioritizing" spending in order to fully fund the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) -- ignoring the fact (or not knowing) that achieving that goal by redistributing the budget would require a 6.4 percent cut in ALL OTHER DOMESTIC PROGRAMS. That means Pell grants, Section 8 housing, low-income energy assistance, WIC, clean energy research, and "dozens and dozens of other programs." Not to mention the fact that McCain has opposed funding IDEA numerous times.
11 Days Before Election, Palin Endorses Obama's Call to Fully Fund IDEA
In Pittsburgh this morning, Gov. Palin gave a speech on special needs. A big focus of her speech was fully funding the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA). It took a long time, but I'm pleased that 11 days before the election, Palin has endorsed a position that Sen. Obama took more than a year ago, when he issued his policy position on disabilities. His first recommendation is to fund IDEA, a position he has advocated since he was first elected to Congress.

Here's what she didn't say:

In no part of her speech did Palin criticize the Obama-Biden plan for children and adults with special needs, or even draw contrasts between the positions.
Heather Bruce, Palin's Sis, Speaks

Gov. Palin's big sister, Heather Bruce, spoke with Autism One Radio, about raising her 13-year-old son with autism. What she said doesn't reassure me about her sister's understanding or commitment to autism. Here's what she had to say:

"She [Sarah] wants to help. She wants to help so badly, but she has a lot to learn, and she knows it. She’s fresh into this, being an advocate for autism, for Down syndrome. People expect her to know everything about everything. [She has said] We need to sit down Heather, tell me what your needs are, what do you wish you could see, what do you think would help the state. And that was just the time she was the governor."

So after Sarah has been an aunt to a child with autism for 13 years and governor for nearly two, the best endorsement her sister can give her is "she has a lot to learn, and she knows it"? Interestingly, she also gives credit to the Democratic candidates for also raising the issue of autism during the campaign. How strongly does she support her sister's candidacy? I can't tell after listening to this nearly hour-long interview.
http://specialneeds08.blogspot.com/

The sad truth about Sarah Palin from those who know her best...

It was laughable that Sarah Palin was touted as a shining star, well poised for 2012.

The reality she is one of those trinkets you pass out at trade shows, that looks good but soon is seen as another useless non productive gadget that sits on your desk but does not help get the job done.

Saying Palin is the future of the Republican Party is sad for the GOP which used to be a brand of quality and not cheap knock offs.
Attempting to sell a product with a fresh packaging and fancy paint has not worked for Ford, GM and Chrysler and has not been working for Republicans.

Telling everyone that the other products are junk, when yours is breaking down, subject to recalls and has lousy service no longer works.

Headline in related TMP story on Palin says "Go More Rogue". Originally I mis-read that as "Go More Rouge", thinking it was a story on Palin's make-up artist. At $11K/week, that staffer ought to be planting some stories at least.

Bill Maher explained that the $11K/week is not as outlandish as it first appears. It seems that the make-up artist is also Palin's foreign policy expert.

Interesting comments. It's always hazardous to make predictions four years out even before an upcoming election is over. I agree with Watson048 -- the current dynamic seems inordinately murky.

If our economic crisis turns out to be deep and Obama navigates it carefully, the Republicans could find themselves in a situation not all that different than 1936, where their brand needed major rehabilitation and recasting. Under that scenario, a Wall Street moderate like a Bloomberg might plausibly make a serious primary run. I grant you that a moderate might not win the nomination because of the entrenched power of the fundies and neo-cons, but such an effort could at least begin to reshuffle the power structure of the Republican Party.

Bvd's comments make a lot of sense to me. If Obama builds his governing tent big enough to include moderate Republicans, that could seriously marginalize the R's in 2012 and perhaps beyond. The challenge here is that if Obama becomes too "bipartisan" he might also piss off more left-leaning, red-meat Democratic activists.

This strikes me as a crucial dynamic. Right now the Democrats are extraordinarily united. But give it two to three years and let's see what that looks like. Ours is a diverse party that has been largely out of power for eight years. How will it stand up to the intense pressures to govern given the multiple crises we face and an opposition party well-versed in the politics of destruction? Recall the end of the Clinton administration, when many prominent progressives were lining up behind Ralph Nader rather than support Gore, who was viewed as too centrist.

It's not enough to say that Obama will avoid this fate because he has talent. Yes he does, but in general the longer a party is in power the more likely it is to fragment. This is particularly true if the times are tough. Look at how easily Carter's governing coalition collapsed.

Given all this, it's not a bad guess that Palin is toast. I hope so. However, I also wouldn't bet on it. Political rebirths happen frequently (e.g., as Fitgerald noted, look at Richard Nixon's rise from the ashes in 1968). Even Peggy Noonan acknowledged Palin's gift for political theater. Beetlejuice offers a scenario that sounds quite plausible to me. The friendly amendment I would offer is that Palin has similarities to Gingrich in that she seems to be a walking time bomb. If her current legal troubles don't sink her, I suspect that her ethical tone deafness could eventually sink her reputation even with the fundies.

I'd love to know who started the meme that Palin has a snowball's chance at 2012.

Don't forget ex-governor Jeb Bush in 2012. He was very popular in Florida. He's smart, a good politician, and was supposed to be the heir apparent. Right now he's lying low because of the mess his brother has made of the Republican Party, but if Obama is elected and makes some mistakes, as he will, no prejudice here, good old Jeb will be right there to pick up the pieces of the Republican Party and initiate his candidacy.

They are going to be fighting over there in no man's land for a long time, so if we pull this off(we haven't won yet, so please stay vigilant)we can enjoy their infighting for hopefully, oh say about twenty five years.

Probably toast, but she might. Depends on (1) how successful Obama (presuming he wins) is. She needs to show she's more experienced, so winning a senate seat is a must. And that nomination is no formality. Then (2) how the Republican party mutates over the next four years - get real or go more extreme (and yes that is possible, sigh). Then depends also on (3) issues. Cuba for example hasn't been one this time round - might be in four years. The smart choice would be Charlie Crist - he can deliver 25EVs, is more or less Obama's age, moderate enough to be seen as a serious alternative to Obama ... but will the GOP grandees allow it? Brings us back to point 2.

From what has been coming out about Palin in the Media. She has a very very slight chance for Republican Nomination. She doesn't have the money, she doesn't have the donor lists/database, she doesn't have a good group of around her, who are smart, loyal and can shape her message. I am also getting that she doesn't have the attention span to handle some major issues and their complexities.

She can probably raise money, and get a donor list in the next two years. She will get power if she helps in a big way getting Republicans elected in 2010. However, the staff and advisors part is going to be the most difficult part. From what I read, she goes through staff at a pretty high rate, as Governor of Alaska, and her campaign consultants weren't exactly wild about her.

When President GW Bush ran in 2000 Republican Primaries, he steamrolled the opposition, (except McCain) because he had all the parts to make a strong campaign, his and his Father's donor list and direct mailing operation, a very strong and loyal campaign staff and more money than they know what to do with.

Palin's 2 years as Governor of Alaska showed she was pretty pragmatic, and she didn't have to worry of pissing off right wing groups, because their power up in Alaska is minimal compare to some other states. She can't do that in the next two years. However, she will piss off Alaskans in a major way if she acts as a sychophant to the Far Right like Focus on the Family, Family Research Council, etc. Her re-election in Alaska is far from a given. I wouldn't be surprise she will be challenged in the Republican Primary.

A new ironic cartoon at the Reasons To Be Cheerful, Part 3 blog: "ItsAllMcCainsFault.com" (no. 2 in a series).

I am a moderate Republican. I will give you some insight on who will be the GOP nominee in 2012. Just do a search on YouTube for "Huckabee at CPAC." Watch the whole speech.