Poll: Obama's Lead In Virginia Grows Even Bigger
The newest survey from Public Policy Polling (D) not only has Barack Obama ahead in Virginia, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since the LBJ landslide of 1964 -- it's the widest lead he's had in their polling yet.
The new numbers: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, outside of the ±3.2% margin of error. This is consistent with other recent polls that show Obama building up a sizable lead here.
The internals show Obama winning 42% of the white vote, way ahead of John Kerry's 32% in 2004. This could explain why Obama is doing so well: Sixty-three percent of respondents say the economy is the single most important issue, and this group is going for Obama 59%-36%.
Late Update: Now this is interesting. A new ARG poll gives Obama a 50%-42% lead in West Virginia. The major caveat here, of course, is that ARG's track record during the presidential primaries was simply less than stellar, and other polls have given McCain the lead here. But maybe the economic crisis is having an effect here, too.
Media reaction:
Why cant Obama close the deal and break the 55 percent margin?
October 9, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yes!
And this from the internals: McCain widens lead among those citing "Domestic Terrorism" as their top concern.
October 9, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pat Buchanan chopping the air asking "Why can't Obama close the deal and break the 55 percent margin?"
October 9, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is leading in West Virginia of all places, Someone, tell McCain throw in the towel....please.
October 9, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is leading in West Virginia of all places, Someone, tell McCain throw in the towel....please.
October 9, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
!
October 9, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cautiously optmistic. Realistically hopeful.
Nothing for to add, except, "can this really be happening?" on two counts-
1. An Obama landslide.
2. An onset of a New Depression
Am blessed to live in interesting times (and I thought that was encapsulated by my war experience).
October 9, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well put. Obama needs to win by a Roosevelt-style margin because he is going to have a Roosevelt-scale set of problems to deal with when he comes into office.
October 9, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perfect put.
October 9, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
PerfectLY put.
PREVIEW!!!!!
October 9, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bravo Josh on the snark on the front page about the testicle ownership!
October 9, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't imagine how much Obama calling him a coward, and now Biden as well, is going to get under his skin. Adding insult to injury (the poll numbers).
October 9, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Run! He's gonna blow! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79q_5HJYSis
October 9, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I had to smile when I read it as well. A couple of days ago, I made a post on my blog (the personal/not TPM-based one) that related the current McCain campaign to the Joker's "So what happened? Did your balls drop off?" quote in The Dark Knight. Couldn't have been more appropriate then than it is right now...
October 9, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS AMAZING BARACK IS LEADING IN WEST VIRGINIA WOW,I STILL DON'T FUCK WIT THA POLLS!
October 9, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's cool, but could you stop fucking with the caps lock on your keyboard?
October 9, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
ha!ha! bvd thanxs 4 reminding me LOL!!!!
October 9, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a hard time believing that WV poll. First of all, it's ARG. Second, on the same day they (ARG) are showing Obama only ahead by 1 in Minnesota, 47-46. That said, while there haven't been many polls out of WV, those that have been released have shown a surprisingly tight race there, with McCain at +4-+5. Those polls came out about 2-weeks ago. The +8 Obama ARG poll released today seems way wrong, but I don't doubt that the state is up for grabs. It has A LOT more Dems than neighboring VA and OH and they are probably getting a lot of spillover (ads, news stories, etc.) from those states.
We'll know the state is in play if McCain or Palin show up there in the coming week or so. Then again, they'd be wise to focus their energies on larger EV targets - WV just isn't a big enough prize.
October 9, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
But McCain is in Winconsin today, and one report has him back in Iowa this weekend. They need to have running up and down from FL to NC to VA to OH. Not that I'm complaining about it.
October 9, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is pretending (or trying to make it look like) that he is still competing there? Unless their internals show some legitimate reasons, I have no idea what they are thinking.
October 9, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah! Like Kentucky! With three more EVs than West Virginia and even more dems!
Come to Kentucky, Barack. Just one day - a.m. in Hazard and p.m. in Hopkinsville.
You won't regret it - really, we're a cheap date.
October 9, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
RFK Jr. just called for the media to finally wake the f*** up!!!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr/alaskan-independence-part_b_133261.html
October 9, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great article by RFK Jr., too.
October 9, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link. I'm not sure whether the Obama campaign should use this information but I am sure they will know what to do.
October 9, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Loves me some RFK, Jr...
October 9, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is a good thing that Obama looks poised to win this thing with a huge electoral mandate from a wide cross section of this country, because he is going to need to be able to project a great deal of popular legitimacy to get done the many, many reforms he is going to need to effect. We really do not want a squeaker of an election that leaves us with a president (like Bush in 2000) whose legitimate claim to the office is tainted (although I have to admit that the taint did not slow him down any). The next president is going to need to ask all of us to make sacrifices to turn things around, so it is important that the whole country feels invested in his presidency.
October 9, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at his favorables. They've shot up 10 points in a week. 60/40.
Meanwhile, Sarah Palin's are 48/52. And this is supposed to be their shining star?
October 9, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Shining star" indeed...
October 9, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with Musgrove above - every media tv outlet with the exception of MSNBC will still wonder why Obama hasn't cracked 60% in any poll instead of covering that his lead against McDepends widens each day.
Then again, if he did reach 60, they'd wonder why he hasn't reached 65%...and so on and so on.
October 9, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shorter media: It really IS a horse race. Please keep tuning in. We need the ad revenue, please!
October 9, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think at this point (as he cracks the 50% ceiing) they'll shift from reporting actual numbers to some language like, "With many polls showing Obama slightly ahead..."
Also, they'll cite "concern among voters over Obama's reported ties to domestic terrorism."
Never underestimate the media's ingenuity in achieving fair and balanced reporting.
October 9, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is wrong with these folks in VA? Are they deaf to the smears against Obama? Are they not afraid of being called communists?
Strange things are afoot in the land.
October 9, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The DC area (including MD and VA) is going to be one happy and wild place to be November 4th at around midnight. You all should come party with us!
October 9, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
There will be one very large block party that night, spanning the entire mid-Atlantic corridor and stretching as far north as Boston. Those of us up in rural New England may have to drive to the nearest village, but such are the vicissitudes of country life.
October 9, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll look for yer blue shoes.
October 9, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
You guys see these fake ads? Theyre funny...and spot on!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/08/ads-spoof-mccain-inner-sa_n_132979.html
October 9, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
This race is so over. Can we just vote next week and get on with it?
October 9, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
You sure can - depending on where you live, anyway. Early voting in Illinois starts next week!
October 9, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I voted today. Can I get drunk now?
October 9, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. Get to work for your local Dem/Obama office. Nov. 4, 8 p.m., start your drinkin'.
October 9, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Come on Mountaineers!! We need your help booting the GOP out of Washington!
October 9, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm highly encouraged because I recently moved and had to re-register to vote...I applied back in August and it took me nearly two months to receive my new voter card, which I finally did a few days ago.
A few weeks before I did, I called my county office for an update and, after apologizing for the delay, said everyone is delayed because of the flood of new registrants coming in.
Yes, Illinois is Barack's state, but similar things are happening throughout the country and THAT is encouraging!!!
October 9, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heard some rumors that RFK Jr. might be on Bill Maher's show tomorrow night...I hope he is so he can talk that Alaska Secessionist stuff up!
Oliver Stone is also planned to be on there - damn, I hope he's a panelist and not just a interview!
October 9, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
DOW just dropped another 500 points today - and McCain's bowels just moved in his pants as a result!
October 9, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
West Virginia?!?!?!?!?
Okay, in truth, I believe that poll about as much as I believe in Santa Claus, but still, it makes me every bit as happy as filled stockings on Christmas morning.
October 9, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.
October 9, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Breaking news: New poll shows Obama up 14 points in Pa.
http://www.citizensvoice.com/articles/2008/10/09/news/doc48ee3943a5436906503493.txt
October 9, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this point, the DEMS are trying to Humiliate the GOP out of town.
Humility is a virtue, but the american people may not have any mercy on 11/4, thinking about their bank account and boiling at the sight of any 'R' beside a name.
October 9, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
It has been funny to watch conservatives gag on their caviar at McCain's 300 billion "surprise" mortgage purchase plan.
And now ABC news has a breaking bulletin about the stock market, "cratering" in McSame speak.
Cratering, like his numbers on the Intrade Prediction Market.
Cratering like republican down-ticket candidate numbers.
October 9, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry - but any polling firm that issues polls where Obama is up 8 in West Virginia, but only 3 in Ohio; or only down 5 in Montana, but only up one in Minnesota - is utter trash.
October 9, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
With regard to the West Virginia poll, ARG used a lesser percentage of Democrats (55%) and a greater percentage of Republicans (35%) in their survey than what was the actual voter turnout in the 2004 election (58-30) when George Bush won. The ARG poll well may be real, and it may speak to a movement in the country toward an electoral landslide.
October 9, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
These polls have all been infiltrated by agents of the nefarious evildoers at A.C.O.R.N and are all FRAUDULENT HOAXES. It's all part of a larger plot to distract the public from the fact that the entire housing crisis and financial meltdown was precipitated by poor people and their bogus voting registration forms.
October 9, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay. I've been out of work for three years, some of it self-imposed. Just started a 9-5 two weeks. Getting paid this Friday and WILL DONATE ALL OF IT TO THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN!!!
I am so proud to be an American during this exciting times!!!!!!!!
October 9, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
There’s an old anecdote about a British naval commander, who, upon seeing a French cruiser on the horizon, would call for his red vest just in case he were to be wounded in battle;he wouldn’t want the sight of blood to demoralize his men.
The same British naval commander, just a few years hence, spotted an American frigate and promptly called for his brown trousers.
I think McCain has just called for his brown trousers just in case his “Depends” spring a leak.
October 9, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Believe the WV poll. Thank Ralph Stanley's radio ad.
October 9, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pulling 42% of the white vote in Virginia is simply astounding. I mean, just think about that...nearly half of all white people in VIRGINIA are able to see an African-American in the White House. That's pretty impressive.
GoBama: http://tinyurl.com/5f9l2d
October 9, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink