Poll: Obama Winning Florida Early Vote In Landslide
A new Suffolk poll of Florida, which shows Barack Obama ahead 49%-44%, has another statistic that could affect the outcome on Election Day: Among early voters, Obama is ahead by a 60%-40% margin.
Early voting has become a big thing in Florida, and current statistics show that enough early votes have already been cast to equal more than a quarter of the total votes that were cast in 2004. So Obama has already banked a good lead in a major swing state, if this poll is accurate.
Bear in mind, it's still possible to win the early votes but lose overall -- mainly because enthusiastic Obama supporters show up to vote early, but they would have otherwise voted on Election Day if the option hadn't been available. For example, Obama won the early votes in the Texas primary in March, but Hillary Clinton won on Primary Day itself by a wide enough margin to overcome the deficit.
Love it. Just love it. McLame is behind the 8-ball
October 27, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
While Eric's caveat is valid, it's mighty encouraging.
October 27, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric's post, caveat and all, misses the crucial point.
Yes, Obama is doing well among early voters. In fact, in every state for which we have data available, he's overperforming among early voters compared to the electorate at large. But, as Eric notes, that's not in and of itself sufficient to guarantee a favorable outcome. It could just be that Obama's supporters are voting now, and they'll be outnumbered on election day.
So that's why it's worth noting this: Most national polls that show a close race have Obama performing about as well among early voters as he is among the electorate in general. Most polls that give him a double-digit lead show him doing even better among early voters.
Now, we're getting data that allows us to discriminate between the two sets of polling, and measure their models against actual returns. And the results are entirely unambiguous. I know - I've been blogging about this for three days, and I'm starting to bore some readers. But I'll keep right on flogging this horse until pollsters feel compelled to release more numbers, and justify models that now look out of step with reality.
October 27, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you that the make-up of the polls don't seem to match reality. For example, in NC, African Americans are making up roughly 29% of the electorate but the most recent PPP poll puts African American vote at 21%.
October 27, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Early voting also prevents Election Day chicanery of the sort that allowed the R's to steal elections in the past. Don't forget that.
October 27, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep - anything that frees up the queues on Election Day, especially in crowded urban centers, even if just a little bit, is a good thing.
October 27, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I shouldn't say 'anything', because that would include bad things like vote suppression. Let me revise that to say, 'anything that gets people voting and still frees up the queues'.....
And I should also add, by getting more Obama votes banked early, it also increases the likelihood, especially this year I'd think, of getting more Obama votes in total.
October 27, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm so proud of my room-mate, who stood in line for 40 minutes at the Denver Ellections Commision just to get his mail in ballot today.
October 27, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does this include absentee ballots? I thought Republicans were leading with them.
October 27, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Republicans were initially leading in the absentee-ballot requests, but the Dems overtook them in the latest stats.
October 27, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I knew I heard somewhere that the GOP was ahead in FL early voting. I guess it was absentee.
October 27, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
FWord LWord
October 27, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this is good news. The elderly people in Florida are likely going to vote early, so it shows that we're getting some votes from the retirees. Obama's ground game in Florida is making it happen!
October 27, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am in the panhandle of Florida, the heavily republican area of the state and I voted last Wednesday in Santa Rosa County. The line was pretty long and I was wearing an Obama button on my lapel. For the first time I had people in line tell me how much they liked my button and that they were also voting for Obama. HERE! In Joe Scarborough republican land! They kill abortion doctors here for god's sake and people are voting for Obama! I can't tell you how hopeful I am now for Florida and the rest of this country. Just when I thought we as a country had grown to dumb to be governed we go and vote in someone as talented as Barack Obama. I guess all is not lost.
October 27, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting, if you read the comments of right wing pollsters like Zogby and IBD you'd think Obama is crashing today. But his RCP number moved up to 50.5 today - the highest they have ever had him. IBD has Obama at 47%, the highest he's ever been in their poll. Gallup has Obama winning registered voters by 10 points, just one off his high of 11%. He's up by ten in their expanded likely voter - tying his high water mark in that group.
Now Obama is only up by 5% in a new poll out of Florida?
Any more bad news like this and I'm moving to Canada.
And no, I'm not celebrating early. But you know what, when I watch my Seminoles play and they score a touchdown to go up by 10 with 3 minutes in the 4th quarter I friggin high five everybody around me. Even though I know the other team can still score quickly, recover an onside kick, kick a field goal and then win it in overtime. I'm crazy that way.
October 27, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby is actually a Dem but he is using a 2004 turnout model. He actually might by trying to suppress the lead a bit so Dems don't get complacent.
IBD is definitely a right wing poll who is also using the 2004 model with almost equal numbers of registered Dem and Rep voters.
October 27, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby isn't right-wing. I've seen several interviews with him and I think he personally leans left. His methodology just leans to "suck". Bad, albeit amusing, pollster.
October 27, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting that all of a sudeen Zogby is the bad guy. I suggest that those who don't like the numbers of his polls grow up and stop attacking the pollster: up until now, he hs actually been the most accurate.
In 2000, Zogby was most accurate of all pollsters, on all 50 states. In the end he was wrong onn only one: Florida -- which was STOLEN.
So stop beating up on Zogby simply because his numbers are closer than those you prefer: closer yes, but also more accurate.
October 27, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can I beat up on him because he predicted Obama by 10 over Hillary in the CA primary?
October 27, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wouldn't it be bittersweet if FL is the one that puts Obama over the top ?
October 27, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eh, I think anything over 270 at this point is going to be pretty Effn sweet.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 27, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
agreed. I don't care how he gets there. Just that he gets there.
October 27, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I meant on the election night, when the states are being called and FL comes in just in time for putting him over the 270 mark.
October 27, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, yes!!! But I dare not project as we have another weekend of canvassing ahead. It's not over yet. We're turning over every rock here. Dare I say it seems to be working though???
October 27, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS...
October 27, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS...
October 27, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 27, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 27, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR...
October 27, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
TINA FEY!
October 27, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
She can stay on earth!
October 27, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
AND TIMELY
October 27, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just don't see McCain voters showing up in huge numbers at the polls. McCain never got big support from the Republican base and in states like FL if Romney and Huckabee did not split the bases votes McCain would have not won. The base likes Palin but I don't think people go out of their way to vote for a VP. Face it come hell or high water Democrats are going to come out and vote this year while a light rain shower one election day will keep most Rethugs from voting.
October 27, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only problem is that this might get the repug base to roll over and wake up on election day. Last thing Obama needs is a larger repug turnout on the last day.
October 27, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
More likely roll over and go back to sleep...
October 27, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not sure how to read this early voting news. One thought is that it's not such a good thing if likely Obama voters see the great news and think to themselves, "Well, he's doing well enough without my vote, so why should I stand in line for hours if he's going to win anyway?" I hope the GOTV effort will effectively counter such thinking.
Another thought is that this could stimulate a groundswell where every Democratic and independent voter wants to get in on the winning side of what is clearly a historic election and will rush to the polls. I'm more particial to this line of thought, but either way it's too soon to tell.
October 27, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seems like there is most likely to be a drop in enthusiasm for potential McCain-Palin voters assuming things hold. Many of their backers are fired up for negative reasons, meaning that the key motivation is winning. If they don't think they'll win my guess is that some of 'em will bag out. Obama-Biden voters are driven by hope -- that the country can still and will function for the good of all of us.
October 27, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Red: Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.
Andy: Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.
October 27, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um...I really, really like Obama's candidacy and all, but based on the implication of your comment...
...I'm not sure I'm willing to shimmy through a 200-yard cesspipe to vote for him.
October 28, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The vast majority of people I've talked to while canvassing can't wait to get to the polls. They are well-informed, they know the country needs to change direction, and they want to participate in making history. They won't sit this one out.
October 27, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well Eric, I was sure under the impression that Obama won Texas in terms of delegates.
October 27, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
He did, but mostly because of the bizarre rules for the Democratic primary here. We have a primary during the day, then, after the polls close at 7:00, we have caucuses. It was especially problematic this year, because the Obama campaign was successful in letting people know about the caucuses (I've been here for almost 15 years, and this was the first I'd heard of them), so the caucus places were vastly overwhelmed (attendance was something like 10x what it usually is). Hillary won the primary, but Obama won the caucuses - and with enough delegates to take the overall lead in Texas.
October 27, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know.
I voted in Dallas. And I totally disagree that it's weird. I loved our caucuses - I felt like I was having a more direct effect on this election and my future by participating. And the turnout was stunning.
October 27, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I've been in Texas a hell of a lot longer than 15 years.
That was my first caucus vote too. Won't be my last.
October 27, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
You may like it, but since Texas is the only state (to the best of my knowledge) with this hybrid system, I stand by the word 'weird'. Or we could use peculiar, strange, whatever you like. Bottom line is that nobody else does it this way.
BTW, I had the same feeling when I was living in Wisconsin, and we had a brief flirtation with caucuses. But then it was just caucuses, so everyone knew what was involved. My problem with the Texas system is that it was previously just a way for the party insiders (the only ones who knew about the caucus phase) to override the will of the voting public. This was clear from how totally unprepared they were for the numbers they had this year. Plus, I couldn't get there, which annoyed me even more - I felt like my vote did not really count.
October 29, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't count on enthusiasm dropping from Obama voters on election day. A lot of people (like me) want to wait until election day to vote, since there is just more fanfare involved. Granted...I live in Cali so early voting isn't exactly feasible, but I still wouldn't trade in that adrenaline rush of casting my vote on Nov. 4th.
However, I am more than encouraged by the surge in early voting. There is no doubt that many of these same voters (specifically minorities) would run into a lot of voter suppression tactics and funny business at the polls on election day, so it's great that they are making sure their vote counts by voting early.
October 27, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love your comment!
October 27, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
No complacency here!
I'm on a plane tomorrow morning at 6AM for Ohio, where I will work like a dog through election day. It will be sweet to be in a swing state on November 4th.
October 27, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
This early voting stuff just gives them days instead of hours to hide/lose/invalidate those votes....
October 27, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
In my county in Florida we fed our ballots into the scanner ourselves and saw the count when it registered. At least on the surface they seem to be knocking themselves out to get this right.
October 27, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, Eric, now you're just trying to drive Tena insane.
October 27, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT, but front page reads Stevens convicted on all counts.
October 27, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
IT"S TRUE!!!!!!
October 27, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Helps us get closer to the magic 61 (filibuster-proof and Lieberschmuck banished).
October 27, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
And no "Obama wants to give your money to poor (black) people" lead stories today!
October 27, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in a fairly conservative neighborhood in North Florida, and when I voted last Friday I saw a lot of Obama stickers and Tshirts. I was surprised.
Our crooked republican legislature changed the rules on early voting a few years ago -- the polls are now only open 9a-5p during the week, and for restricted hours on weekends. This helps to prevent a lot of working people (as opposed to retirees) from getting to the polls before election day.
October 27, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
My county's 8-5 M-F and 8-4 Saturday. We got a lot of voters out last Saturday who were unaware of early voting.
October 27, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey - Stevens guilty on all counts!!!!!!1
October 27, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
hot damn!
October 27, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gee...a dishonest Alaskan politician. Drip. Drip. Drip.
October 27, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
There goes his career, right down the series of tubes.
October 27, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
****Dancing in joy!****
Now DEFINITELY press Failing to answer; "Governor Palin, are you endorsing Stevens?"
October 27, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
heeheeheeheeheeheehee!!!
October 27, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who gets his comfy massage chair if Stevens goes to prison?
October 27, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
But does this decrease his re-election chances with Alaska voters? /snark
October 27, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah. His chances are as good as Palin's.
October 27, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Goes to show everyone there are honest, law abiding citizens in Alaska that won't tolerate a public official who lies and cheats at the publics expense.
Did you hear that Sara?
October 27, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
HA!
October 27, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby is a Dem?
Really?
Then sombody needs to neck punch that worry wart.
October 27, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do like you so much! LOL!
October 27, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ted Stevens - GUILTY!!!
This'll run on all the news networks all week - it won't do much to McCain, but the Senate/Congressional candidates will sure take a battering ram up the pooper!
October 27, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know how to read this early vote. Traditionally Florida early voters are mostly seniors who want to take care of things early. I would not have been shocked to see McCain up early in Florida. Sixty - 40 Obama a week out is mind blowing.
October 27, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could the timing of this Ted Stevens thing be any more perfect??? Plenty of time for it to circulate over the airwaves and embed in the brain for the next week.
Let's also crack a smile each time Sarah Palin is asked for her comment on this and declines to even know who Ted Stevens is!
"You betcha I have no idea who he is!"
October 27, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just watch. Fox News will have under Stevens's name (D-Alaska)
October 27, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope it couldn't.
And just add that as the dead kitten on top of Princess Sparkle Starburst's existential sundae.
She's also by her Rovian tactics managed to really fuck herself when she goes back to her day job in Alaska. Now her ethics situation is being investigated by independent counsel that that commission she thought was in her pocket, brought in.
LMAO!!!!!!!!!
It seems to me that Alaska is in terrible need of some new government - the Stevens-Palin Repugs up there are sure one corrupt bunch of maniacs.
October 27, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, they could! CNN just the other day accidentally had Romney with a (D) next to his name, so God only knows what Fox will do ON PURPOSE!
And yes, there will be morons out there who will see a (D) after Stevens' name and think he's a Democrat!
Thanks to 8 years of Bush, IQ's are soooooo out of style these days!
October 27, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hell, maybe they should just secede.
October 27, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn you TPM! How the hell am I supposed to get any work done with all this great news coming out today?
October 27, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you have a basket leave request in for next Tuesday.
October 27, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
What day is it again? They all seem to be so similar as of late.....
October 27, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if there will be MSM mention of Palin working for a Stevens 527 group while out of elected office between 2002 and 2006...
October 27, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't there something on Palin's campaign site for Governor a couple months ago showing Stevens publically endorsing her and she immediately removed the video right when McCain made her his running mate?
October 27, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
60/40 seems a bit optimistic given that dems are 44.7% of the voters thus far, repubs 40%, and other/ind at 15.2%. Assuming he is getting 95% of the dem vote, and 15% of the repub vote (both a bit excessive)... that leaves him with 76% of the ind/other vote. I'd love it, but that seems very wrong.
Of course, it could just be rounding, as if you said 57/43, or 56/44 I'd believe it.
October 27, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
whats this I hear about the breaking news that the ATF uncovered a obama assasination attempt?
October 27, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
So far that's the only info that seems to be available--that they've broken up a plot. It's on AP as a news alert. Can't find it anywhere else.
October 27, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Link: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/APNEWSALERT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Why 102 people, I have no idea - unless they had a list of specific people to kill.
That's two things on the McCain Must Renounce list today (the first being that Wright ad).
If McCain says nothing, I'll assume that He's John McCain and he approves this message.
October 27, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign.
October 27, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh, McScum will say "It's Senator Obama's fault."
(Sad and scary that I can't say I'm just joking)
October 27, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe it's 102 because the skinheads can't count any higher than that. I'm a tad impressed they can get to 102, personally.
October 27, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure some of those are among the skinheads . . .
um . . . never mind.
October 27, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sadly, it's all too true: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081027/ap_on_el_pr/skinhead_plot;_ylt=An3EvppDedB1iXqGtnH6EqayFz4D
October 27, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Going by that link, it sounds a lot more small-potatoes than I'd originally imagined.
Not that that makes it any less dangerous - I just envisioned something bigger. This sounds like a Nazi Columbine, if you'll pardon the comparison.
October 27, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
102 people is a lot for two Orcs. I'm guessing that there's a few more yet to be outed.
October 27, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, me too. I completely understand that it only takes one nutter with a death wish, but when I heard "neo-nazi plot" I was thinking more than two skinheads with a fantasy...
October 27, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jeez. If these guys had been going for McCain (granted, impossible), Homeland Security might have had us at code red by now.
October 27, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
October 27, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hope people don't see this as a reason to not vote for Obama.
"We love him, but we don't want anything to happen to him, so I won't vote at all."
People, don't think like that! Just VOTE!!
October 27, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some of those responsible, law-abiding guns-nuts who need guns to defend against criminals!
Huh!? -- they were gonna STEAL the guns? Isn't that, like, illegal?
October 27, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
ATF disrupted a skinhead plot to assassinate Obama and kill 102 black folks. Centered in Tennessee and Arkansas.
Keep up your hate speech McCain and Palin...
October 27, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
You called it, Jonzie - hate speech is right.
O Jesus - my overarching paranoia starts to bubble up again -
October 27, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, the Repub die-hards will still vote for Stevens - if he remains a candidate, which is pretty much a given since we're a week away.
But DAMN, how sweet it would be if Alaska went blue!
October 27, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
is there any law against him running now that he's been convicted?
October 27, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope, he can run from a jail cell. And serve from there unless he's booted out by a 2/3 vote in the Senate.
October 27, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, that might depend on his sentence. LOL! If he does time, well, he's probably not going to get to serve if elected.
I actually don't know the answer to that.
October 27, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think so, but I could be wrong. The news will answer that question for us.
October 27, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Alaska may have laws about that - it's not just the US Senate here -
October 27, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
From http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/stevens_trial:
October 27, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shit, if there was a law barring felons from sitting in the Senate, the Republican chamber would be empty!
October 27, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but I'm not so sure that Senate Republicans would want to risk filibustering or going through a roll-call vote in order to keep the guy from getting tossed out.
October 27, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Congressman Jim Traficant (he of the strange hair and CSpan rants) was so popular that there was talk that he could still win his NE Ohio District after his conviction. The thing that did him in: lack of residency--the Federal Prison was in PA, outside his district. So unless the Feds have some pen up in Alaska, I think Sen. Stevens won't have this option.
October 27, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
But can a convicted felon serve in the Senate?
October 27, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
See above.
October 27, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
It doesn't make a hell of a lot o sense, since they can't vote in most states.
October 27, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's why I was asking. Felons are routinely singled out in voter rolls as well as employment applications, security clearances, and so forth. Would seem odd that they would be allowed to run for a national political office.
October 27, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
But will they give him work release to make it to votes?
October 27, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's say he wins and goes to prison. Can he vote by phone?
October 27, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also breaking: Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) convicted on all counts.
October 27, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stories from other news outlets here.
October 27, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
On another note, here's a good example of what the McKKKain campaign's strategy has wrought:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/27/obama-assassination-plot_n_138297.html
If anybody is surprised by something like this . . . they shouldn't be.
October 27, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry to say that the only thing that surprises me is that there haven't been more of these.
October 27, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did everyone see this yet??? Hilarious, but the end hits it right out of the park! You'll see why...enjoy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq8Uc5BFogE
October 27, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama should have it as one of his "commercials" during his prime time half hour special...
October 27, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just voted in Wisconsin!
~45 minute line (my dad reported over an hour at lunch time).
October 27, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Voted on Saturday - not much of a wait. I just can't wait to see the Chicago metropolitan vote completely cancel out the Republican suburban vote out here...just like it does every election cycle.
But this year will be so much more fun to watch!
October 27, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, and Pennsylvania all come in for Obama, I count 185 electoral votes by 8pm Eastern.
Damn, I'm holding an Obama Pyjama Party, but my guests might end up going home early.
October 27, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out all of the updates about Palin!
Obama, get some ads out about her on this quick!!!!
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/27/stevens-guilty/
October 27, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to the Miami Herald, down-ticket races in FL are also in grave jeopardy for the GOP:
October 27, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
And here's a tidbit for Tena in the Dallas Morning News...
October 27, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy Shit! Thank you.
By the way - Bruce Sherbet is a real standup guy - we are so lucky to have him. You could not ask for a more honest and hard working elections administrator. I really love the guy.
October 27, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
My college-age daughter was so excited to vote today here in Texas. My college-age son voted on the very first day. People are voting for Obama because they are excited, and are willing to stand in line however long it takes.
October 27, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not that anyone here needs to be told this, exactly, but it would be foolish of us to show less caution than the Obama campaign itself has been showing and take any premature victory laps.
Again . . . not that anybody needs to be told this. I'm just a superstitious soul and disinclined to jinx anything . . . even something so devoutly wished for as the vanquishing of McCain/Palin and the first errant rays of what may, at long last, be a Tomorrow worthy of that term.
With that, may I start off a Nouvelle vague?
THIS...
October 27, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't worry. Such power is given to neither you nor me. Check it out here.
October 27, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any chance in Texas of picking up Congressional seats?
October 27, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, I just got an email from a friend who moved to Florida last spring.
She says it is Omabamania in Florida. :)
October 27, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
When Eugene McCarthy ran against Lyndon Johnson in the 1968 New Hampshire primary, the most effective ad his campaign ran was also its oddest. It went something like: Think how you'll feel when you wake up in the morning to find that Eugene McCarthy has won the New Hampshire primary.
Seeing those words, 'Obamamania in Florida' makes me realize why that ad was so effective. The prospect that this could actually happen is just . . . words fail me.
October 27, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena:
Any Congressional seats going Democratic in Texas?
October 27, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can check out this tidbit I left for Tena up-thread.
October 27, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know what? This is NOT the Kerry campaign, nor is it the Gore campaign. This is the most brilliantly run campaign I have ever seen, and I've been following them since I could vote: 1972.
I am confident. Damn confident. I have put in the footwork, as has every person who has contributed and/or pounded the pavement and/or made phone calls. We will NOT stop until election day. In fact, I'm going to phone canvass tonight.
So, my point?
There is no jinx. Nobody is going to steal this election. And I am tired of being angry, and am moving on to a slowly growing sense of exultation. It ain't over til the fat lady sings, I know.
But really, it's ok to feel good, damn it.
October 27, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hear hear. Just not too good . . . yet!
October 27, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can we get those drape measurements now?
October 27, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Live in Miramar (just north of Miami) lined up at 7:00 AM with about 20 people in front of me. Center opened @ 11:00, student in my group who waited 5 hours prevous day and gave up... came back this morning to "try again"
by that time EV opened 50 people ahead of us (seems some were saving spaces - which was fine with us if they were BO votes) of the people in line I would be surprised if JM got 5 votes... took about 38 mins to complete process...
when I left was at least 300 people in line with no sign of slowing... drove to work in north dade and passed two early voting stations... lines incredibly long...
Folks Florida is in play... this is week two mind you of EV.
October 27, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I vary from day to day, oscillating between paranoia and certainty. This is a certainty day.
This shit is over.
October 27, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Toast. Extra burnt.
October 27, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
On paranoia and certainty? Sometimes these are opposite sides of the same coin. Been fighting with certainty since the night of Iowa caucus? Paranoia is a part of the fabric!
October 27, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
On election night I think the States are going to be jockying to see who gets to put Obama over 270.
If O pulls PA,VA or Florida...they can go ahead and call the election because the skies just get BLUER the closer you get to the Pacific Ocean.
October 27, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Q. Florida, how do you cast your votes?
A. Madame Newsanchor, the Great State of Florida yields the floor to the State of Virginia...
October 27, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Early voting means that MORE people will have the opportunity to vote, which is always a good thing for Democrats. The Texas scenario isn't comparable to Florida in that it was Democrats vs. Democrats rather than Democrats vs. Republicans. Anyone who thinks that voters having more opportunities to vote doesn't favor Democrats is a Republican in denial.
October 27, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby is a Democrat but his reputation for accuracy is mixed. He was accurate in 2000 but strongly predicted a Kerry victory in 2004.
The IBD poll is suspect not becuase of any Republican ideology but because of its own figures. About a week ago, it showed Obama only leading by 2 points(and got extensive coverage on Drudge) but its breakdown, which they publish in great detail, showed people between 18-25 breaking for McCain by 3-1. Obviously something was seriously screwed up. Even their latest poll, showing Obama up by three, shows Obama ahead in the 18-25 category by 52 to 41. All the other polls show Obama ahead by at least 20 points in that age demographic.
October 27, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just moved to Reno Nevada from Wisconsin. Wisconsin has early voting, but it's not nearly as accessible as Nevada. I've always voted on election day, mostly because in our neighborhood, I never had to wait more than 10 minutes at our polling place to vote. I think living in Janesville, a city of about 70,000, probably helped.
I was excited about relocating to Nevada, because of the fact that it's a battleground state with half of the electoral votes of Wisconsin, so I feel like my vote here has a little more weight. I was even more excited about Nevada's early voting and how hard they try to make it as easy as possible.
I did have a scary moment though in getting registered, but it turned out to be my fault. I obtained my driver's license here before we had a permanent residence. We initially relocated here in our RV, so I had a business listed (Grand Sierra Resort RV Park) at the DMV as my address. We moved into our new house about 3 weeks later. They caught the problem though and quickly helped me update my information right over the phone. I was in their voter database the very next day. I was impressed with how nice they were and how quickly they pinpointed the problem and resolved my issue.
I never thought I'd cast my vote for the biggest election in my lifetime at a Scolari's grocery store, but it was quite satisfying to get my vote in early. :)
October 27, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Vote don't gloat
October 27, 2008 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news keeps on coming. I'm sure enjoy reading all the posts about "Me, Me, McCain" and his dwindling fans. I notice that McCain doesn't talk about problems affecting "retirees", as he doesn't care about "old people", just "old money"
Barack Obama always refers to "we", "our" country and "our" government. He displays respect for all people, and will be a great President. I admire Barack and Michelle Obama - they are great role models for marriage, caring relationships, and loving parents.
October 28, 2008 2:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank God exit polls are never wrong. Obama is a shoe-in.
October 29, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink