"McCain has a 47 percent -- 41 percent edge among people who say terrorism is extremely important."

Of course terrorism is important to the GOP.  How could they hold in in fear without it?

It's called an outlier. Did you bother to dig deep into that one, Wallace? Poor soul.

What the hell kind of question is that "toughest decision of your life" question?

Uh, I wouldn't go to either of those two guys because, duh, I don't know them.

This question is all about what's wrong with American politics--driven by likability and relatability. I'm glad it's working in our favor, but it still strikes me as a ludicrous question. Is there much tradition of this question in polls? Since it's Faux News, I'd love to blame it on their simple-mindedness.

The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.

How can he lead by 10 points in a survey, when the headline says they're tied?

People shouldn't get to worried about this one:

VA-Pres
Oct 22 Mason-Dixon: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

Keep in mind the M-D was the outlier on the last cycle:

VA-Pres
Oct 2 Mason-Dixon: McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%

John

SFCWallace:

Just chill out. You cannot change the game, so go with the flow. In the end, after Obama hopefully wins, your life will get so much better.

Did you happen to notice this? 39% to 23% ratio of conservatives to liberals in this poll. Yeah...that's realistic.

Is it wrong I have an Obama poster in my office so everyone passing by sees it or? I'm a supervisor if that makes any bit of difference.

Is it wrong I have an Obama poster in my office so everyone passing by sees it or? I'm a supervisor if that makes any bit of difference.

Something else interesting about that AP poll:

McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support "bounce" or something more lasting.

In other words, what we have is a five-day tracker where McCain had a couple of good days late last week, like he did in many of the other polls. Also, the sample size for likely voters was 800, meaning that 160 were interviewed each night. That kind of polling is subject to Diageo-magnitude volatility.

I'd guess that the O+5 RV figure, which is more likely to reflect the actual electorate this year, is close to right. It would probably be O+6 or 7 if the interviewing had continued through last night.

Hotel Reservations - Check
Flasks filled - Check
Gas tank filled - Check

The opportunity to see Obama win the Presidency at Grant Park - PRICELESS!

Most ridiculous poll fact out there - outside of the 2 polls showing Obama only ahead by 2 or less. IBD/TIPP has shown the race a bit closer than other trackers. They just showed Obama going from a 6pt lead yesterday to a 3.7 lead today. Part of the tightening is because McCain is now tied with Obama in the suburbs - a week ago, he was trailing by 20!

Now, that stat is wacky enough in itself. But it's not the most ridiculous. The wackiest part of their poll comes when you look at the age demo breakdowns. Obama leads among voters aged 25-44 by 3, 47-44. Among those aged 45-64 he leads by 12, 48-36. With those over 60, he trails McCain by 6, 46-60. You're probably asking, if Obama is doing that well with these age demos, how can it be so tight?

Well, maybe that's because they have McCain leading Obama among the 18-24-year old demographic by 10, 53-43.

53-43 lead for McCain. Among the youth voter demo.

Yeah....right.

It also depends on how the polling is done. If it's
by phone, is it to a cell number ? And how many people actually answer their cells all the time ?
Land line ? Same question. I usually let it roll over to phone mail if I don't recognize the number
or it says unknown number. And what if the cell is turned off and it rolls over to phone mail.

Or is it in person ? Then where is it being done.

All of this can bias a poll or survey.

C

It also depends on how the polling is done. If it's
by phone, is it to a cell number ? And how many people actually answer their cells all the time ?
Land line ? Same question. I usually let it roll over to phone mail if I don't recognize the number
or it says unknown number. And what if the cell is turned off and it rolls over to phone mail.

Or is it in person ? Then where is it being done.

All of this can bias a poll or survey.

C

Mike from Arlington- If you work for the federal government, this is not allowed (Hatch Act). For private firms, I guess it is a matter of company policy.

9 of the 14 polls used in the RCP average have Obama with over 50% of the vote. Only four have McCain over 45 - two at 45 one at 47. In 7 of the polls, Obama's 44 percent in the AP poll actually beats McCain. In 10 he ties or beats McCain.

Since 5/02, McCain has been ahead or tied in the poll of polls for exactly 10 days.

So, what we basically know is that in the Republicans fondest wish Obama is up by 1 with 8% undecided in a poll that downplays Obama's initial result by 3% and ups McCain's by 6%.

Anyone heard anything about this one? Could be nothing. But I'm one of those Dems that will be freaking until it's all done on 11/5.

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/10/22/report-obama-internal-poll-shows-two-point-race-in-pennsylvania/

The one good thing is all of the many ways Obama has to win vs. McCain right now (getting to 270). He can still lose PA and win by carrying VA, NV and CO along with IA and all of Kerry's other states.

But...like Tin Cup. "Hey, I played 18-holes of golf with a 7-iron. Can you?" "Shoot...I never even thought to try."