Poll: Obama Now Leading McCain In Red Swing States
Here's a stunning finding buried in the new Pew poll: Barack Obama is now narrowly leading John McCain among voters in the 10 battleground states that voted for George W. Bush in 2004.
The poll finds that among those voters, Obama is now up 47%-43%, which is within the margin of error, but still noteworthy. In the past few weeks Obama has steadily gained, and now passed, McCain among these voters.
A week ago, according to the poll's internals, McCain led among these red battleground state voters by seven points, 49%-42%. Two weeks ago McCain led among them by 10 points, 51%-41%.
No wonder McCain is transferring ad spending out of the blue states and into red ones and spending much of his final campaign time in the Bush states. He's trying to staunch the red bleeding.
Separately, the poll also finds that Obama is leading McCain by 16 points (52%-36%) among registered voters overall, and by 19 points (53%-34%) among the 15% of respondents who say they've already voted.
THIS
October 28, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 28, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 28, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 28, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 28, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
ZOGBY!!!
October 28, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 28, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
AMERICA!!!
October 28, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
MATTDRUDGESEANHANITYANACOULTERTHEFIRSTDUDEREALVIRGINIAJOETHEBLUMBERTRACYTODD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 28, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS RIGHT WHERE MCCAIN WANTS HIM!
October 28, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCMENTUM!!!!
October 28, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
OBAMA CLINGING...
October 28, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't want to be a dampner, but the Pew numbers seem too good to be true. Anyways, focus on the state polls. Forget nationals.
October 28, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Pew numbers IMO do 2 things, 1 can be bad and 1 can be good.
The bad part is it hurting turnout for Obama, and Obama has been fighting that idea for a long time.
The good part is it help fuel the fire in the fight within the GOP. There will be more finger pointing if polls keep showing they are not making any ground.
October 28, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Uh...what did u just say?...lol
October 28, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very good news for Obama can make people feel they don't need to vote because it will be a land slide.
Very good news for Obama can also make Republicans blame each other for why they are losing, thus they end up fighting more and saying stupid things like....
McCain adviser calls Palin "a whack job"
October 28, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
For some people, it can work the other way. It depends on whether they're voting because they have to or because they want to. I.e., voting out of hope or fear.
A lot of people like to run with a winner. Being stuck with a loser (McSlime) can be very demoralizing and make you more likely to stay home on election day.
October 28, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word.
Nobody is complacent about this election. Nobody. Voter registration in Michigan, for example, is at 98% of those eligible to vote.
Registering doesn't always mean voting - but this time, I think it does.
I think these models people are using from past elections are useless in this one. I really do.
October 28, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I know that's how I felt in 1992.
October 28, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah - 1992; and how I felt in '06.
October 28, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was annoyed in 2006. Of course I was also excited to vote for Lamont, and Murphy, but as I was handing over my ballot to the poll worker, said poll worker was gabbing with a friend. Both were elderly males, and the conversation went something like this (they had just shaken hands): "Whoops! Maybe we shouldn't have done that. People might think we're gay or something! (It was bizarre)" Snicker snicker snort. "Whoa! We wouldn't people thinking we're too close or nothing" Snicker snicker snort. All I could think was "Jesus, just grow the heck up already, would you?" (They were both old enough to be my grandfathers)
Weird. All the poll workers at the school that I vote at appear to be in their mid-nineties.
October 28, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
At least you voted in a school. They have us voting in churches all over Dallas and it offends the fuck out of me to vote in a church.
October 28, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh...what did u just say?...lol
October 28, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's good as long as it reinforces the narrative Obama is winning big (esp when McScum is trying to claim it's tightening). I don't think it makes his supporters complacent but it can discourage McScum supporters.
October 28, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am not a fan of polls, but it comes down to accuracy the Pew Poll is the most reliable. Its safe to say if the early vote numbers continue to hold Obama will have a good night on Nov 4.
October 28, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. Pew has one of the best reputations out there. And if they're right this time - or even close - there's going to be some major surprises with red states turning blue on election night.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 28, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, he's up 47%-43% in "10-swing states"?
We don't get a state-by-state breakdown?
So, this is basically a regional poll? Which is probably even less relevant than a national poll.
October 28, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a breakdown of the swing states:
http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html
Obama's leading in every single one.
October 28, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. I know he's up based on other state polls, I was just questioning Pew's policy of lumping them all together.
October 28, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
NPR does this as well in their battleground state poll. I agree with you. If they are not going to share the info about how each state broke down, that composite average amounts to a rather useless datum.
October 28, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Theoretically, he could be up huge in one and trailing in the 9 others. We know that's not the case based on other polls, but this Pew number by itself doesn't really tell us much.
October 28, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
This battleground stuff is just a piece carved out from their 1500-respondent national poll. Here are the results for the entire poll:
October 16-19 23-26 Ob Mc Ob Mc Reg voters 52 38 52 36 Likely voters 53 39 53 38By lumping battleground states together, they keep the sample size high enough to have some meaning. If they were to break out each state, the sample size would be very low and the MoE uselessly high.
October 28, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Battleground analysis*
Republican states -- -- O 47 - Mc 43
Democratic states -- -- O 57 - Mc 31
Battleground states -- O 53 - Mc 35
October 28, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
*Battleground states are CO, FL, IN, IA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI.
October 28, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
The 10 RED Battleground states are CO, FL, IN, IA, MO, NV, NM, NC, OH, and VA
October 28, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
The 10 RED Battleground states are CO, FL, IN, IA, MO, NV, NM, NC, OH, and VA - so that is the universe the write-up addresses.
Also note, that the linked survey says that overall if ALL the red states were combined, Obama is close to being in within a statistical tie with McCain.
October 28, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the PDF:
October 16-19 23-26 Ob Mc Ob Mc Rep BG states 42 49 47 43 Dem BG states 61 30 57 31 All BG states 52 37 53 35Battleground states are CO, FL, IN, IA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI.October 28, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have officially entered rapid-cycling mood swing freakout time. sigh......next Tuesday, please HURRY!!!!
October 28, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
O.K. The local police just called me because my entire purse was found in the middle of the main street this morning. I think I had left it on the top of my car roof and drove into town. My mind is going fast.
October 28, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chillin in NYC. No swings. We're in. Fear not.
October 28, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
What?!?! Redistributing your money to Main St. instead of Wall St.?!?!
Socialist!!!!
October 28, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh...I'm right there too! It's rollercoaster time - I cycle between convinced a landslide is imminent and being equally convinced that the GOP will find a way to steal it (again).
And even when I'm in landslide mode, that can suddenly trigger a fear (irrational, I hope) that the reports of a potential landslide will depress the Democratic turnout!
I had problems even opening this thread...is this good news or bad news? LOL
October 28, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's raining today. Is that good or bad for Obama? The World Series was postponed until tonight, or maybe tomorrow night (given the craptacular weather the Northeast is experiencing right now). Will that make people more or less likely to vote for Obama? My dog tried to eat a dead squirrel this morning. What does that mean, exactly, for the election? My Obama button fell off my coat yesterday, and landed face side up. Omen?
Needless to say, my productivity has been steadily declining the closer we get to Nov. 4.
October 28, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
My Obama button fell off my fleece vest over the weekend, and ended up in the pocket, all by itself, safe and sound. Strange, but wonderful.
October 28, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe you are suffering from acute election anxiety, something affecting 125% of the people visiting this web site. The only known cure is WINNING!
October 28, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only cure for that is to get offline but the cure is often worse than the disease.
;)
October 28, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I need my peeps. None of my close friends are political junkies like me.
October 28, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. It's a Hobson's Choice.
;)
October 28, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm tired of talking about the election with my husband, especially since we agree on everything about it. But I still need to spend two-thirds of my day reading about it on TPM.
My ulcer is ready for this election to be over.
October 28, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two constants so far -
(1) all polls for swinging to Obama...
(2) all vote flipping swinging for McCain.
October 28, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
OK, Palin is upgraded.
October 28, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, the Blame Game begins.
October 28, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't be surprised if this was coming from Huckadoodle or Mittens supporters in McCain's campaign. They're already looking to 2012, and hoping to cut Palin off at the knees.
Mwahahahaha. The long knives come out.
October 28, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't Lincoln Chaffee call her something similar shortly after she was nominated?
October 28, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I misremembered. He called her a "cocky wacko".
October 28, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you have not already read them, you need to check out the arguments for Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin for RNC chair. They are both hilarious and brilliantly illustrative of the hole that the conservative movement has dug itself in this country.
October 28, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, once you finish reading those, you need to read Frum's take on Rush Limbaugh's "blueprint" for a conservative turnaround. All I can say is that Limbaugh has a much larger megaphone than Frum, and that suits me just fine in this case.
October 28, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just now read those. LOL, thanks. Yes, for the reason you mentioned, I kept chuckling.
October 28, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
We all know she is a whack job, although it is rather nice to have that affirmed.
October 28, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
By a McCain guy, that is.
October 28, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure your analysis of the state breakdown is right, though it's certainly ambiguous. I read that as noting three categories for all states: R, D and Battleground. The 10 battleground states are the ones listed in the footnote, and the remaining 40 states would fall into the R or D camps. Maybe someone should confirm with Pew?
This could be wrong, and it certainly seems implausible. I like our chances, but this figure (winning 47-43 in a batch of states including TX, KS, AL and SC) would seem to augur 1932 or 1964.
October 28, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
My impression, reading the poll, is that the red state reference relates to those states within the 10 listed in the footnote that voted Bush in 2004.
October 28, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are 15 battleground states listed. Presumably, the 10 "red" ones went for Bush in 2004, and the five others the other way.
October 28, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
15? hm. you're right. not sure where I got that number. thanks
October 28, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
53-34 among those who have voted leaves 13% either voting for 3rd party candidates, confused about who they voted for, refusing to state, or voting down ticket, but not for president. Speculating that 3rd party and non-president voters account for 2-3% at the most, that leaves at least 10% unwilling (or perhaps confused) about who they voted for. Given the hostility to the polling firms found in right wing circles, I'd say it's a safe bet many of these are McCain voters, so the likelyhood that Obama is actually 19% ahead in early voting is practically nil, especially when considering Pew's overall numbers give Obama a much larger spread than anyone else's. Still, even if Obama is only ahead by 6 or 7 points in the early voting, that's good news.
October 28, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
53-34 among those who have voted leaves 13% either voting for 3rd party candidates, confused about who they voted for, refusing to state, or voting down ticket, but not for president. Speculating that 3rd party and non-president voters account for 2-3% at the most, that leaves at least 10% unwilling (or perhaps confused) about who they voted for. Given the hostility to the polling firms found in right wing circles, I'd say it's a safe bet many of these are McCain voters, so the likelyhood that Obama is actually 19% ahead in early voting is practically nil, especially when considering Pew's overall numbers give Obama a much larger spread than anyone else's. Still, even if Obama is only ahead by 6 or 7 points in the early voting, that's good news.
October 28, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Harsh! But a very good observation.
October 28, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, I know that complacency is a real issue, but I still remember how excited I was to vote for Bill Clinton in 92, even though the polls showed he was very likely to win. I wanted to vote for this new kind of Democrat. To be involved in the whole experience.
I got to my polling station, and there was a long line, and it was raining, but no one left. Everyone was excited.
There might be complacency, but I imagine there's some real excitement out there, too.
October 28, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
HIgh voter turnout and long lines at polling places are more likely to deter Republicans this year than Democrats.
Who wants to wait in line an hour to vote for a loser?
October 28, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
See below :-)
October 28, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The blogger at Thatโs Me On The Left wrote this beautiful poem about Oilbama, who voted for the Bush Cheney Energy Bill.
I will vote Obama
I will vote for a man I know nothing about.
I will vote because it is time for a black man in the White House I will vote for a man I really havenโt researched, and I really donโt want to know anything bad about Because I will feel noble and good that I voted for a black man or a man who definitely is NOT George Bush.
I will vote for a man whose mother left America on purpose and stated the Americans around her in Indonesia were โnot her peopleโ
I will vote for a man whose father and stepfather were not Americans or Christians even though I felt uncomfortable about that Romney fellow and his Mormonism.
I will vote for a man whose father figure mentor in Hawaii was a communist and hated America and โwhite oppressionโ
I will vote for a community organizer, even though I donโt know what that is Saul Alinksy is the creator of the community organizer concept
I will not Google Saul Alinsky
I will not Google ACORN
I will vote for a man who ran unopposed for his Illinois State Senate Seat
I will not Google how that happened to occur
I will vote for a man who allies himself with an unrepentant radical terrorist
But he is an โeducation reformerโ now!
I will not Google Bill Ayers enough to find out what he wants to reform public education into
although my children go to public schools
I will vote for a man who listened to Reverend Jeremiah Wright for 20 years
I certainly will NOT Google Black Liberation theology, white oppression, and Marxism in the same search!
I will feel good about myself after I vote Obama
who is not George Bush
I will feel good that America voted for Obama
I will await the praise from the worldโs opinion of us on our wise choiceโฆ
I will be surprised when they still hate us
I will be surprised when I start to hate who I voted for.
I will vote โanybody but Obamaโ in 2012
October 28, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, congratulations moron! At least you managed to attribute the source of your bullshit rather than fraudulently claiming it as your own drivel.
Baby steps, loser.
October 28, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you have someone to keep watch over you next Tuesday night? Just to make sure, you know, you don't hurt yourself or others?
October 28, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your intro is old and stale, why don't you start using "Barack, the bush/cheney energy bill voter"?
October 28, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
sour grapes much?
October 28, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, how remarkable. Such lyricism and miter. Here's one that I wrote for Obama. I call it simply:
Obama
A cold winter breeze
dark morning embers shudder
huddled and waiting
like blooms that sleep in the dirt
waiting for the sun
to dance in the flame
October 28, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
On second thought, I think I want to name my haiku Hope, and dedicate it to Obama. Yes, I like it better, and is actually what I had in mind. So here goes:
Hope
A cold winter breeze
dark morning embers shudder
huddled and waiting
like blooms that sleep in the dirt
waiting for the sun
to dance in the flame
October 28, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone who doesn't know anything about Obama at this point is a moron who hasn't been paying attention.
Obama has been campaigning for almost 2 years and if you don't know him it's because you don't want to; or perhaps you are one of those white people who just don't think you can really know an African American.
Hell if I know what the problem is, but anyone who doesn't Barack Obama by now is fucked up.
October 28, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just remember that Barack is bi-racial. He's just as white as he is black. People forget that.
(Kay Bailey will be here (EP) tomorrow to endorse Bush Buddy Dee Margo (wife Adair is Laura Bush's best friend?) for the Texas legislature.)
October 28, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooh, poetry corner on TPM! I wanna play too!
There once was a guy named McCain
Who flew out here on his wife's plane.
But he had awful numbers
Thanks to talk of plumbers
And flushed his chances down the drain.
October 28, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol... Bravo. Very nice.
October 28, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
McLandslide.
John
October 28, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stanch. Not staunch. :)
Yeah, I'm THAT guy.
October 28, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Staunch" is an accepted variant spelling of "stanch."
And vice versa, interestingly enough, according to the American Heritage Dictionary. See the usage note here, as well as the definition here.
October 28, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep in mind that ALL of the polls exclude a fairly significant % of the pop. People who do not have land based phone lines and have cell phones only. These represent anywhere from 2-3% (conservaitve estimate) to more likely 4% of the voting public. The demographics list them in the under 29 years old range which votes overwhelmingly for Obama. So have heart when you see Obama's numbers on all these polls...just add a few more % points and you have a more acurate #.
October 28, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pew polling now includes cell phones. So that may account for the better Obama numbers.
October 28, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for this info on Pew, which is new to me.
October 28, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is about the 3d or 4th poll which shows Obama creaming McCain in early voting.
Don't believe the MSM line "hard to tell whether these would be just election day voters anyway"
Bullshit.
A banked vote is better than a "likely vote" any day.
Ask anyone who has ever walked a precinct on election day
Pundits are wondering what the Ground Game will look like next Tuesday
This is the trailer
October 28, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can someone explain the calculations here. Speaking to an early poll person in WI, they mentioned the ballots go into a locked room and are counted on election day, not before.
How do we know the numbers? Or is that just a WI thing? Or is it not true at all and this person was either misguided or deliberately misleading. Never know in my conservative part of the state.
October 28, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
When they poll, the ask the respondent whether they voted and for whom they voted. So it's like an exit poll, not hard numbers.
October 28, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am also confident that there are a number of white people who do not want to admit that they are voting for Obama.
October 28, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
My best friend married a woman from Georgia (call her R), and although R is herself a very sensible woman, she comes from a long line of what you might call "southern Belles." My wife and I met my friend and his wife for drinks on Sunday evening and R told us how her grandmother confessed, almost shamedly, that she cast her early ballot (in Georgia) for Obama. She told R because she knew that R was also supporting Obama, and she wanted to tell someone, but she did not want the news to spread among her friends at the country club.
R laughed as she told us this, however, because another of R's friends told R that she had the same conversation with her grandmother (who is a member of the same country club as R's grandmother). In other words, there is evidently an epidemic of older, white southern Belles in Atlanta furtively voting for Obama, but anxious that they maintain the appearance of being good country-club Republicans. A reverse Bradley-effect, perhaps? Let us hope that it is a bigger thing than anyone might have guessed.
October 28, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love this anecdote. I truly do.
October 28, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, has nothing to do with the topic at hand, but if anyone missed SNL last night, you missed this little gem!
Jon Hamm's dead-on impersonation of a young and drunk James Mason in the Vincent Price Halloween Special was absolutely hysterical!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdqBuP-F5gQ
October 28, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops, I meant last weekend, not last night!
October 28, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
My best guess for the minimum winning scenario is the following:
Obama wins :
Me,Vt,NH,Ma,RI,Ct,NY,NJ,De,Md,DC,Pa,Oh,Mi,Il,Mn,Co,Ca,Or,Wa, and HI.
Electoral College total = 271
California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii put him over the the top in the final moments.
So if any red or vacillating eastern state moves over to Obama's column, it'll be over with faster than stink on shit.
October 28, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Election night will be a violent repudiation of the Republican Party.
They will be humbled in the most amazing way. And that humility, no matter how pronounced, will be good for the GOP.
October 28, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I agree complacency might reduce the turnout I think we all need to stop hand wringing and worrying. We also need to stop trying to deconstruct every word of every poll. It's not worth it. This next week is going to be hell enough for us. We are the committed and therefore the most with an emotional stake in the outcome. Let's not make it worse for ourselves.
Does anyone else agree that these early turnout figures are a sure sign that the combination of Obama's message and massive rejection of the Bush/McCain policies are going to energize voters sufficiently to turnout en masse?
I think the electorate wants to pile on the misery. People on our side want to run up the score just to vent their pent up anger. There is an urgency in this election that hasn't existed before. I think we're seeing the beginnings of a wave that will carry over even beyond November 4th.
That's enough to offset, and more, any complacency produced by the current state of the polls.
October 28, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
To quote Lesley Gore....
"it's my election and I'll freak if I want to..."
lol....
October 28, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well at least I tried.
October 28, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
even the msm is picking up on THIS one.....
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27416412/
October 28, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thread drift...
On Josh's piece on the front page:
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/240472.php
He should update it to mention NC:
2004
3,552,449 total votes
30.8% voted early
1,094,154 voted early
2008 (10/28 5:22am)
1,411,999 voted early so far
More *already* have voted early, for a rate of 39.7% what voted overall in 2004.
The splits are up huge:
2008 vs 2004
Dem: 54.6% vs 48.6%
Rep: 28.1% vs 37.4%
None: 17.3% vs 14.1%
That's just staggering with a full week out.
I think there are two thinks to keep an eye on from the early returns on Tuesday:
#1 - VA: if we're up comfortably there, then we win. We will be too well firewalled to lose
#2 - NC: if we lead there and keep it comfortable, then it's landslide time
If NC stay broken from the Red in out direction on 11/4, then we'll pick off other Red States that are starting to teeter.
Still need to GOTV. Too many downticket races where we can crash the Repubs to let the opportunity slide by.
John
October 28, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
These numbers are amazing. Thanks Tosh!
October 28, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent stuff ... thanks
October 28, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
A Haiku...
Republican rule.
Ends not a moment too soon.
Carcass smells like poop.
Another Haiku...
McCain's fun campaign.
A joy for your eyes and ears.
They feast on themselves.
Another Another Haiku...
Palin goes out rogue.
Flops like flailing bird.
Alaska's deep shame.
Thank you.
October 28, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lovely. Bravo!! Very nice.
October 28, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love this Pew poll--and they've got a great rep--but tend to think that it's an outlier, as it's so far beyond what any of the trackers from the past several days are showing. Right now it looks like Obama's lead has dropped to about what it was before the Powell endorsement. Hoping that the Wednesday-night speech will stop the slight momentum that McCain seems to have gained since Friday.
October 28, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Pew survey is a national survey, not a survey in swing states as the post implies. It's kind of a no brainer to note that Obama leads nationally. But there is no necessary relationship between being ahead nationally and taking the electoral college.
October 28, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Watch the Obama TV "special" tomorrow night. Call everyone you know and urge them to watch. From what I can gather, it's going to be spectacular!
October 28, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain belongs in a Nursing home. Palin should go back to that small town in Alaska where she was Mayor of Hooterville? Or was it Bug Tussel? In less than a week they will be nothing more than a 'Fart in the Wind!'
October 29, 2008 2:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lots of dumb male voters who don't make up their mind till the last minute are quite prone to wanting to be on the winning side.
All of those empty field offices reported by Nate Silver tell the story.
For the latest on McCain's Turtle Island-Gate, check out:
http://www.neilyoung.com/lwwtoday/index.html
October 29, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lots of dumb male voters who don't make up their mind till the last minute are quite prone to wanting to be on the winning side.
All of those empty field offices reported by Nate Silver tell the story.
For the latest on McCain's Turtle Island-Gate, check out:
http://www.neilyoung.com/lwwtoday/index.html
October 29, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lots of dumb male voters who don't make up their mind till the last minute are quite prone to wanting to be on the winning side.
All of those empty field offices reported by Nate Silver tell the story.
For the latest on McCain's Turtle Island-Gate, check out:
http://www.neilyoung.com/lwwtoday/index.html
McCain can now buy a penthouse condo in Buttfuck, Utah, divorce Cindy and party like he's always wanted to.
October 29, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain can now buy a penthouse condo in Buttfuck, Utah, divorce Cindy and party like he's always wanted to. (lots of blondes thereabouts...)
October 29, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Josh: I'm in love with your server....
October 29, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink