Poll: Obama Expands Lead, Makes Big Inroads On National Security
The new Pew poll finds Barack Obama with a big lead against John McCain, and also finds that he's made big in-roads on national security issues.
The top-line numbers: Obama leads McCain by 14 points, 53%-39%, among likely voters, compared to a 49%-42% result a week ago and a 46%-46% tie back in early September.
On issues, Obama has vastly expanded his lead on the economy since the early September numbers. Back then Obama had an 11-point advantage, 47%-38%, but since then -- with the financial crisis and the presidential debates intervening -- Obama now leads by 21 points, 53%-32%, on the issue.
On Iraq, McCain led by seven points in early September, 48%-41%, but now it's Obama with a six-point advantage, 48%-42%. McCain still leads on who is most trusted to prevent a terrorist attack, but the gap has narrowed: McCain led before by 25 points, 56%-31%, compared to an 11-point lead now, 49%-38%.
Debates made more difference than anyone realized.
October 21, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I tell you what -
I was saying all along I didn't think they mattered that much, but you're right - they did.
Every single rule of thumb for elections has been all but destroyed by this election.
The Obama signs are springing up like mushrooms in Taos - store fronts have huge Obama signs - for real.
October 21, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Every single rule of thumb for elections has been all but destroyed by this election."
Hopefully.
It ain't over 'til enough Electoral votes are in that this bogus "voter fraud" crap is totally irrelevant.
(And yes, I'm sipping the freakin' kool-aid.)
October 21, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not quite true. Perhaps we will know on Nov. 4. But the most important rule of thumb that has yet to be broken is: This Country is Not Ready for a Black President.
October 21, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree....only the most narrow-minded elements of this country are not ready for a Black president. By elevating the status of one Black man, all people of color gain validation. That is just too much for some of the "whitebread" types who need someone to look down their noses at. No more. Enough.
October 21, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's because McCain lowered the bar for Obama something fierce with his "Just a Celebrity" smear.
That and I think these polls reflect more the Palin selection than the debates.
October 21, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you read the internals it has to do with several factors. McShame's erratic behavior, his selection of Palin, his age.
October 21, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't Obama close the deal with the "John McCain will cure cancer, eliminate all Muslims and bring about the second coming of Jesus" demographic?
October 21, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't Obama crack that 54% barrier!!!
A Hem....
THIS!
October 21, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 21, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 21, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
PIZZA?
October 21, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mmmmmmmmm pizza..aaaagahgglegahggledrool [/Homer]
October 21, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, have you been to Ardovino's in El Paso?
*drools*
October 21, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
No - you're making me hungry.
lol
October 21, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ardovino's has this awesome spinach pizza with feta cheese. I always like adding thinly sliced red onions, mushrooms, and chopped tomatoes to that pizza. So frakking good.
October 21, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
god you're cruel! lol!
i'm eating leftovers and they are decidedly lusterless.
October 21, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good God, you people are discussing pizza and you're not even in New York City.
October 21, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
El Paso is my hometown and I missed Ardovino's? Is it new? I'm stuck in DC with the lame-ass Chipotles (which everybody here thinks is great - imagine if they ever tried Chico's?!)...But I must give props to the Well Dressed Burrito, a shack buried in an alley off 20th street that's que bueno...
October 21, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
SWEETEST for ALL
October 21, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR AMERICA
October 21, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 21, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 21, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
!!!
October 21, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 21, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN!!!!
October 21, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
REAL AMURKA!!
October 21, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
AND CARIBOU BARBIE!!!!!!!!!
October 21, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
YOU BETCHA!!!!
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 21, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
WINK!!!
October 21, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also as well!!
October 21, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
LMAO I love you guys.
October 21, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "only poll that matters" is the one going on right now in thirty-one states that allow early, no-excuse voting. Therefore his Pew poll is very good news.
October 21, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sent my ballot back Express Mail about an hour ago.
:):):)
October 21, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't it feel great to have voted? I swear this vote felt different than any I ever cast.
I have drunk the Kool Aid and truly believe that this man is THAT ONE to lead us to a better place.
October 21, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I've drowned in the kool-aid. I totally believe in this man and I've never believed in another candidate like I believe in him.
I suspect that no matter what happens after he's elected I'll still feel this way.
He's certainly different than any other candidate and I don't mean his ethnicity.
The only other candidate I ever saw who came close was Bobby Kennedy and I was really too young and too stoned to pay that much attention.
October 21, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I posted a while back how people like my stepfather are never going to vote for Obama. Well...I just learned he also voted early (in Colorado no less!) and cast his ballot for Obama. He's 65 and this is the first time he's ever voted for a Democratic President. His reasoning: National Security. He thinks McCain/the Republicans have gone off the deep end and that an Obama presidency will go a long way to restoring the honor of the US in the international arena.
I'm just happy we have early voting, because now his vote is locked in. In Colorado! Woo hooo!
October 21, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's awesome um..errr Awesom0
October 21, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meanwhile, I just voted early - in Virginia! Woo hooo!
October 21, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
O my god! That gave me goosebumps!
It's the Palin Effect in action!
October 21, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, if the Republicans have lost men like my stepfather (a good man, we just can seldom discuss politics together) then they're in deep, deep shit.
He also shared another interesting opinion. He thinks most of his like-minded friends feel the exact same way and will vote for Obama, but none of them will publicly admit to it. It's a reverse Bradley Effect if you will...
October 21, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
My 81 year old father (who lives in Ohio) told me he'd never vote for McCain because he chose Palin as his VP. He voted for Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004.
I live in Cache Valley Utah (a very conservative place). My physical therapist told me today that a number of Republicans have told her they're voting for Obama. One even said he was voting for Obama and straight-ticket for the Republicans in all the other races. Obama doesn't stand a chance in Utah (despite the fact that he's winning the yard sign election by about 20:1), but if McLame is losing any significant number of Republicans in Cache Valley, he's in big trouble out West.
October 21, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Utah Republicans defecting? Wow. As you said, he won't win Utah, but methinks this still represents to proverbial canary in the coal mine.
October 21, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, I knew that they were running strong in SLC, but you're right about Cache Valley. To paraphrase, if they can't make it there, they can't make it anywhere. . .
My apologies to NYC.
October 21, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that's just what it is - the Palin Effect is a Reverse Bradley Effect, except this one seems to be quantifiable because it doesn't depend on hiding one's immorality, which is what denying racism is about and I don't think it's quantifiable because who would admit that after the face? No one and no one was ever asked.
But here we have loads of people saying that very thing - they won't vote for McLame because of Palin.
October 21, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I said the exact same thing to my wife last night about Bobby Kennedy. I am ever so inspired by him.
October 21, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I said the exact same thing to my wife last night about Bobby Kennedy. I am ever so inspired by him.
October 21, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I said the exact same thing to my wife last night about Bobby Kennedy. I am ever so inspired by him.
October 21, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena! You got your ballot! Right on!
I just got mine in the mail about 10 minutes ago. I can't wait to rip it open and vote!
(*And* I got an "Obama-Biden" shirt in the mail today, too...didn't even know I was getting one. Red-letter day.)
October 21, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It came yesterday and I went and picked it up and voted a straight Democratic ticket and Express Mailed it right back.
Yay! I'm glad you got yours - feels awesome.
October 21, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
So who did you vote for?
October 21, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I voted yesterday. It felt great!
October 21, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I voted two weeks ago.
I will be doing voter protection for the AFL-CIO's Lawyers Cordinating Committee at a polling booth in Columbus on election day.
October 21, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's great. I'll be poll-watching on election day.
October 21, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain loses (and I think he will, though this Pew poll is almost too good to be true), I really think his campaign "suspension"/demand-to-postpone-the-debate will be seen as his biggest mistake, along with picking Palin (who on the very same day embarrassed herself so badly with Katie Couric). The economy would've swung voters Obama's way, but McCain's erratic behavior accelerated and enhanced the movement away from him.
October 21, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right. But we keep forgetting to give Obama credit for the way he played McCain's stunt. If Obama had went along, it would have played out much differently for McCain.
October 21, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
YES! Very important that Obama played the whole thing cool and didn't fall for any stunts...
October 21, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seconded.
October 21, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the whole reason for McCain's "suspend the campaign" gimmick was to distract from Palin's interview with Couric. That's why he canceled Letterman to talk to Couric himself.
CBS destroyed them by spreading the SP interview out over several days.
October 21, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ya know, I've always wondered about that "prevent a terrorist attack" question. I mean, really, how much impact does a president have on preventing folks from coming onto our turf and trying to do something to hurt us? They can fund the agencies, and promote fancy dancy new spy cams and 'corders and other listening/looking devices, but what keeps us safe on a day-to-day basis? I would argue that it's equipping and paying boots on the ground first responders, but even then they're responding to an incident rather than preventing it. What do y'all think (I must be feeling sorta Palin-esque right now--forgive me!)?
October 21, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, I'll bite:
1. You be respectful of other's countries/cultures. A deep resentment of America's policies in a populace in general will always lead to the possibility of extreme resenters turning pro.
2. You have a reputation for not backing down/letting wrong-doers go. There's gotta be consequences for fucking with America.
3. You don't act so much on your own as with the U.N. It gives you more credit than unilateral action will when there's a lot of backing (Here's where my personal politics most comes into play--I absolutely think it's stupid for America to be a policeman. I mean, we don't get paid for that shit.)
4. The obvious one: You try, again, to solve the Palestinian/Israeli(and Lebanon/Syrian/Jordan) conflict. This one's hard, but at least make a real effort. And we can't just act like Israel's our "51st state" (quote was from some Italians who got into an argument with me once).
5. Oil. How many petrodictatorships are we funding here? We gotta get our energy consumption/Independence thing done for real this time. There are studies showing that the higher oil prices go, the less freedom in the providing countries (take Russia for instance).
6. Ok, I'm done for now. Add your own. I'm just saying that how we look at problems can go a long way to stymieing terrorism.
October 21, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
All good points. All excellent points. But how in the world can a thinking person attribute those to McCain over Obama? Thanks for the well-reasoned answer!
October 21, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know. All I do know is that Obama or McCain have a lot of agenda-setting to do. It won't be easy. But to me, Obama seems like he'd be the most rational one at the helm. (of course I think that, look where I'm posting! ;) )
October 21, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are we going to get a tracking poll composite for today?
October 21, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
October 21, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kinda my point. Why do they ask the question? And what is the "real" question that you think responders are answering? Just who gives them more warm fuzzies?
October 21, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why isn't Obama 15% ahead...LOL!
October 21, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The internals in that poll just blow you away. Especially that early voters break even more strongly for Obama than the sample as a whole. Very. Very. Good. News.
Paging idiotic!
October 21, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Early voters: 58% Obama (vs 34% mcShame).
October 21, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are we going to get a tracking poll composite for today?
October 21, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
It appears that McCain is giving up on Wisconsin and New Hampshire:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/george/2008/10/stephanopoulo-3.html
October 21, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Soon he'll only be competing in the pro-American states.
October 21, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
LMAO! Post of the day.
October 21, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
While the corporate media yaks on about the Bradley Effect, we had better beware the Diebold effect. The election has been won. All that is needed is to "vote".
October 21, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
You cannot steal an election with a 15 point difference.
It's practically impossible to get away with that.
October 21, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's that Electoral map that's problematic. 15% in one poll doesn't mean squat. If it's close enough, the repugs can steal this thing regardless of the actual vote.
Florida 2000.
Ohio 2004.
October 21, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's that Electoral map that's problematic. 15% in one poll doesn't mean squat. If it's close enough, the repugs can steal this thing regardless of the actual vote.
Florida 2000.
Ohio 2004.
October 21, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I worry that all the talk about the Bradley effect is being set up as a cover story for the Diebold effect. But then, I'm paranoid - I have the psychiatric records to prove it.
October 21, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're really not; you're really just snake bit - we all are. We've watched it happen - twice.
But the larger the spread, the more difficult it becomes to the point where it really does become impossible to pull it off plausibly.
October 21, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're correct as far as the popular vote goes, but what about the race for the electoral college. All McCain and company need to do is pull a Diebold move in just two or three states that are up for grabs to get enough EVs when combined with the red states he'll win.
October 21, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Pennsylvania is the state to watch for Diebold shenanigans. Josh's video on the front page says Mac has already given up Iowa, Nevada & Colorado (I think it was those 3) and his campaign is focusing on PA now. He's behind in PA so what makes him think he can win there? Shenanigans?
October 21, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
My thoughts exactly.
October 21, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
God, I hope this an electoral tide (how 'bout a tidal flood?) coming in for Obama-Biden. Something far too big to explain (or cheat) away and a massive boost to Obama's plans for restoring effective governance.
October 21, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nitpick: Pew says 52-38, not 53-39.
October 21, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Likely voters = 53 to 39
(the lower figures are for registered voters)
October 21, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah. Thanks.
October 21, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Final Pennsylvania Registration/Voter numbers -
Final Nevada Registration/Voter numbers -
(h/t to FightingRegistrar's diary over at Kos - http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/21/134515/12/1008/637662)
October 21, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Jonze. Very useful Info.
October 21, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Goddamn, Jonzie - I've been told and told by Democratic activists that if we can get out our vote, we can never lose because more Americans are Democrats than are Republicans.
It's a straight fact - if we can turn our people out, we can stay in charge.
October 21, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
But more americans are conservative than liberal. Weird world we live in hmmm.
October 21, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for this info! I was getting worried after seeing Josh's TPMTV today...
I personally registered 53 new PA Dems over the summer and early fall, and now it's canvas and call, call and canvas and then get everyone to the polls on November 4th.
For all you early voters, I'm so jealous! I know, I could vote absentee, but for reasons beyond the comprehension of mere mortals, our Board of Elections sends the absentee ballots back to each polling place for manual counting on election night. It's going to be a long, long night, but I can't wait to carry our precinct's results up to Obama headquarters and party!
PEACE
October 21, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are we going to get a tracking poll composite for today?
October 21, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been wondering the same thing. Gallup posted over 2 hours ago. I'm not sure why the delay. Gotta get my fix!!
October 21, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry about the multiple posts!
October 21, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if this means that Biden's "he's going to be tested" prophesy won't work to McCain's advantage as the old wanker hopes.
October 21, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still don't understand why McCain scores higher on the "protection from terrorist attack" question. How could any rational person choose that buggy-eyed steamhead over cool, calm and collected Obama in a serious crisis?
October 21, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps on the basis of the "McCain's so gawdawful to look at that the turr'ists want to stay as far away as possible" theory? Maybe people think that Obama is so handsome and dreamy to look at that the evildoers will come staggering up to him in a cloud of heart-shaped thought bubbles...
October 21, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
at this rate, McCain's only hope is the Bradly Affect.
October 21, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
All Obama has to do is win VA. We're done.
October 21, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doing my part. I'm taking off of work on November 4 to help make sure all Virginia residents get to the polls and cast their vote.
October 21, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Again we warn...IGNORE POLLS: VOTE..CALL...KNOCK ON DOORS...REMIND...HELP!!!....Remember New Hampshire.
(This is a campaign advisory from Obama/Biden 08)
October 21, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
From a commenter on another board that 100% reflects my thoughts on the matter:
This poll feels like the first time I saw boobs.
October 21, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
Second!
October 21, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You said "boobs"...
October 21, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
That is the comment of the week. At least -
October 21, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
thanks. wish I had thought of it myself. But I know a funny when I see it.
My talent is being able to find talent.
October 21, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huffington Post Link to MSNBC's Election Map - Pretty Much Giving the Election to Obama
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/21/chuck-todd-mccains-got-no_n_136545.html
Video is in the middle of the page.
October 21, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder what the pundits, like Morning Joe, who kept saying the race will tighten, the race always tightens, when the traditional gallup poll (likely voters) went down to +2, but now it is +7. I think these robocalls were the final straw.
October 21, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those, and Michele Bachmann and Palin's "real America" and...
;)
October 21, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Powell's endorsement, and...
October 21, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
The unbelievable candidate we have in Obama, and
PEACE
October 21, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Morning Joe regarding McCain "He's got no ground game." Is he conceding that McCain has lost?
October 21, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he is like a lot of Repubs are resigned to Obama's victory at this point. I think there was some hope that after the debate McCain could possibly aggressively put forth some economic message that would resonante, but that never happened. Instead they got Plumber Joe, robocalls, and Powell's endorsement of Obama.
October 21, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hell, even Pat Buchanan's been inching up to conceding when Rachel pushes him on it!
October 21, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena's right we've all been snakebit before. That and the fact tha I'm a Cubs fan means I'll be one nervous Obama-lovin' white boy for the next 2 weeks.
gonna knock on more doors...
October 21, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the thing with this election that I see:
Obama's campaign has steadily gathered momentum and he's been forging ahead steadily until now McLame is all but acknowledging he's lost - he was interviewed this weekend and asked what he'd do if he lost and he didn't say "I'm not going to lose." He said: "Don't feel sorry for me."
You can't really get away with stealing an election with this scenario out there - nobody is gonna buy it. People will be furious and there will be dire consequences, I think, if they try.
Too much pent up progressive demand that has gone unmet - it will translate to anger.
October 21, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
"That and the fact tha I'm a Cubs fan means I'll be one nervous Obama-lovin' white boy for the next 2 weeks."
That makes 2 of us Greg....
October 21, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is wonderful news, but we all know we have to keep working and volunteering for Senator Obama until the election is over and McCain officially concedes.
Then, and then only then, can we exhale and celebrate.
October 21, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice. How does this poll square with others over the past few days that show a tightening race, with Obama dropping slightly, and McCain picking up a couple of points? It's impossible to compare different polls without knowing the party breakdown that is being used. Show a greater Repub segment in the voting sample, and the race tightens. Show a larger Democratic segment and the race opens up. Who has the most accurate allocation of D to R to I?
October 21, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver at 538.com had a good post just this morning on the differences/quality of all the tracking polls.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html
October 21, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
What poll has O dropped support? McCain has only gained support, O hasn't dropped it much.
October 21, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
An interesting little bit from the Pew Poll -- Obama now outscores McCain on reducing the influence of lobbyists in Washington by 45 to 34%.
I think that's at least partially due to Josh and the TPM crew for continually posting on McCain's ties to lobbyists.
October 21, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or all those Obama ads about McCain's lobbyist run campaign.
October 21, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Latest NBC Poll: Obama 52% - McWar 42%,
and yet some of the pundits keep saying that the polls will get closer in the last 2 weeks...
I keep hearing this every day, and every day, Obama's lead is growing...
Any takers?
October 21, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink