Poll: More Voters Think McCain Would Raise Their Taxes
Here's a very curious result from the new CBS/New York Times poll: More registered voters think John McCain would raise their taxes than think Barack Obama would, a sign that the Obama campaign's constant assault on McCain's health plan -- and its taxation of health benefits -- has been paying off.
Here's the relevant question:
If he were elected President, do you think (candidate) would raise taxes on people like yourself, or wouldn't he do that?Obama: Would 46%, Would Not 41%
McCain: Would 51%, Would Not 38%
Taxes are usually a slam-dunk issue for the Republicans, but this poll suggests that Obama has done well more than neutralize the issue. It may even be playing in his favor.
In the horse-race, Obama has a lead among likely voters of 53%-39%, up from a 48%-45% lead a week ago. Among independents, McCain led 49%-39% a week ago, but Obama has shot up to a 51%-33% lead.
Wow. Sticking to the issues really can work.
October 14, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow...that fourteen point spread is alarming. The internal numbers, in addition, to saying, More Voters think McCain would raise their taxes, also shows his negatives are up. The negative attacks against Obama are not working and its pissing off voters who more concerned about the economy.
October 14, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're ignoring the good news for McCain in this poll.
"McCain still leads among Republicans."
October 14, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
His lead among the HATE mob won't be enough. Thanks for saying it right.
October 14, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I spit out my water when I read that. I guess more work needs to be done to change that one.
October 14, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its called Staying On Message!
October 14, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amazing how that works when you have a disciplined candidate who's knowledgeable and articulate on the issues.
October 14, 2008 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ouch. Someone get the bengay.
October 14, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain will go for it, after he gives Mr.Puddles some snausages.
October 14, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think actually he needs vaseline!
October 14, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good god! After 40 years it has finally sunk in on Americans that the Democrats really aren't just tax & spend liberals?
Will wonders never cease!
And that CBS poll due out that shows a 14 point spread will be seen by most normal people - not the poll freaks here ;) - as the c correct state of affairs and it should move some weak McLame-undecideds over to Obama just cause it's the bandwagon -
October 14, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is that CBS poll.
October 14, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I looked, I read, I swear I did!
LOL!
October 14, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
A little shellshocked, I know. It happens to the best of us.
October 14, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy crap!
When the republican candidate is the apparent tax raiser to most people, it's beyond reasonable doubt that he's seriously fucked.
Obama can end this tomorrow, but still, a simple victory is not enough. It's landslide time!
October 14, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. I want to hear the door slam behind Bush in 2009.
October 14, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Staying positive and on message has its rewards. And clearly Obama is reaping those rewards.
October 14, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
preface: i'm not saying you're one of the people i'm about whom i'm about to post, but this is a good place to make the point.
i think on november 5th, we all need to go back in the TPM archives a month or two, and look at how many people were second-guessing obama's campaign, and hand-wringing and shrieking for blood (i, personally, was guilty of the third of these).
October 14, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why? Let it go. If and when Obama wins, I'm popping a bottle or two of bubbly. No time to say I told you so, it's time to celebrate the culimination of two years of very hard work (or however long you've been in his corner).
Don't hate, celebrate.
October 14, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's something I need to plan to do. Pick up a bottle of something nice for election night.
October 14, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
i'm not hating on anything.
i suppose i'm suggesting that, assuming everything goes well, hopefully the hand-wringing gets held in check in 2012.
it's not "i told you so." it's "don't act like george fucking steinbrenner."
October 14, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
You all don't know handwringing from shinola. I have a friend (strong Obama supporter) that won't give it up. I sent her the Robert Schelesinger piece from US News & World Report titled "Barack Obama will defeat John McCain - This One's Over". Her reply was "Don't get cocky - it's bad luck." Then she called to tell me they are going to steal the vote in Ohio. I said don't you think Obama has enough lawyers, enough money and enough sense to straighten that out if they try? And don't you think the poll numbers are strong enough they can't do it? She just muttered about how 3 weeks is a long time. Blah blah blah. This has been going on with her from way back in the Hillary Clinton days. Obama is winning IN SPITE of my friend!!!
October 14, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I got an email from the Obama campaign indicating I was one of the first 100,000 supporters. I believe I sent in my first contribution last October.
October 14, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a 50 year old bottle of cognac just waking for an excuse to be opened.
October 14, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Never tried good cognac. May we come over to your house to help you test it?
October 14, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget, McCain has Obama right where he wants him!
October 14, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's going to make his move any minute now.
October 14, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure it's Obama's assault on McCain's health plan that's doing it, though. I think it's Obama's insistence that he would cut taxes for the middle class and McCain would cut taxes for the rich. Obama has stuck to that message and hammered it home, and it's working. He's is the first Democrat in recent memory who seems to understand the value of strict message discipline.
October 14, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Down is up and up is down. Seriously.
Or just maybe things are finally straightening themselves up.
There is hope for all of us yet!
October 14, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hee hee!
Yes there is.
October 14, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now THAT was weird. I tried to post the message above and a modal window popped up that said, "Your session has expired. Please log in again."
Never seen that one before...
October 14, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
You should see what I have to do just to sign on to TPM!
October 14, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I miss the trolls. At least on 538 they would still get a couple to brag about how the Bradley effect actually means this poll shows a McCain lead. Who do we get to have as punching bags now?
October 14, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I bet the new learning curve slowed them down.
October 14, 2008 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
You are behind me in posting this by almost 20 minutes. Check out my post on the other thread.
Some of the stats from CBS / NYT polls:
Obama now leads by 18 points among independents. The same poll last week showed McCain led among independents.
21% say their opinion of McLame has changed for the worse in the last few weeks. Two main reasons: McCain's attacks on Obama and his choice of Palin. Even 33% McCain backers say he has been attacking Obama rather than explaining what he would to as president.
McLame's favorable/ unfavorable is 36/41; Obama's 50/32.
Obama now enjoys leads over McLame with both men 53-41% and women 52-37%. 82% of Hillary's voters now back Obama - up from 67 percent last week and the highest number to date.
With voter registration up in many key states this year, 63 percent of those casting a ballot for first time in 2008 are backing Obama.
Source: CBS, with minor changes in language.
October 14, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This CBS/NYT poll validates what GWU/Battleground poll of this morning, which also showed Obama leading by 13%.
No BS matters except polls.
October 14, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
BO up 14, well we all know what that means. Tomorrow night we will not only hear about Ayers but also Rev Wright, bitter-gate and clinging-gate.
Here comes the kitchen sink and the dish washer strategy from the McCain camp.
October 14, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
These very poll results indicate that the jig is up on that old kitchen sink BS. McCain is seen as the negative nabob. Nattering.
October 14, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The tax numbers are surprising; and I hope other Dems are taking copius notes of Obama's playbook. Remember 2004? Kerry was all about raising the taxes of the richest 2% (or something like that). Obama is talking cutting the taxes of 95%. Such a simple twist in language can have a huge difference.
October 14, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its all about message discipline.
October 14, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The terrorist doesn't want to raise our taxes?
I wonder whose message is getting through???
October 14, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like the new poll tracker! This place is getting all fancy and shit. Maybe I should put on a tie while I blog.
October 14, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm wearing a zip tie.
October 14, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
You look better in that zip tie. Way to celebrate !
October 14, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Greg, i must admit, i like the new poll tracker map thingy.
October 14, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
one criticism about the new poll tracker map thingy. there should be a little note to indicate what the colors mean. Everyone may not be able to figure that out.
October 14, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
What do you mean? All you have to do is guide the cursor to the state, and the info pops up. UT and MS do not have polls taken recently.
October 14, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thus they find themselves in beige oblivion.
October 14, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This ia why I don't trust polls. Especially, individual polls.
This could be a outlier. Realistically it may well be 8-10 points, which is good enough.
Plea, make sure you energize and help in every possible way to help GOTV operation.
October 14, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aww, come on kash. I know you're right, but can't we just enjoy it for a couple more minutes?
:)
October 14, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry.
I'm both excited and nervous.
I'll tell you this. The best predictor all the way through, for me, are not the polls but Obama and his campaign.
Their demanor, focus and strategy suggest a strong Obama victory. They haven't lurched for a second in the last three weeks. And that's the better predictor than any polls.
October 14, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I check "Strongly Agree" on this post, kash.
October 14, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain said he was down by 8 himself in his last speech. "They say we are down by 6, we got them right where we want them." We know he is lying about that so it AT LEAST has to be 8.
October 14, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The good news about polls like this showing Obama way up is it drives the media narrative. Instead of the media talking about what Obama needs to do all the time, now they are saying what does McCain have to do to catch up, not only that but when ever McCain tries to do something it looks desperate because he is so far behind.
October 14, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree - it also lends to the bandwagon effect - which leads to the "L" word.
;)
October 14, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you on that point. I have said previously, poll are important to drive the media narrative. Especially, those snap polls- God bless them- have helped in setting up the narrative in favor of Obama.
This poll will help in setting the narrative- Ayers attacks are not working and more "pundits" will pressure McCain to give up on the attacks.
All I'm saying is Obama may not be ahead by 14 points nationally.
October 14, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
No - he may not - I think he's ahead by more.
October 14, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're right. And I don't mind buying a drink either. I love you for your upbeat mood.
October 14, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've a question for you guys, but before I do I just want to make clear that I am an Obama support, albeit from afar. I'm mostly a lurker here and read the posts as well as comments, and I know nothing of the science of polls...
So my question is, when Obama was down in the polls a few weeks ago, the tone around here was that the polls shouldn't be trust due to a number of reasons (first time voters, registration imbalance, cell phone uses, etc), but now that Obama is up dramatically the tone is quite different. Why should these polls be trusted now? I know that the state-by-state polls are what matters more than the national polls and Obama is up in those too, so is the attitude toward all these national polls just because it's nice to see Obama up or is there any specific reason to trust these polls now than when Obama was down?
October 14, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just cause Obama is up. National polls are largely meaningless. The fact that the state polls reflect this same movement, however, is what really matters.
October 14, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, okay cool. I was just curious. It is a lot more fun when Obama is ahead for sure...Thanks for the answer.
October 14, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
See I still believe the polls are too low. ;)
October 14, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
In addition, most people say that the national polls don't mean anything until after the conventions and, in some cases, after the debates.
October 14, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly, I kept saying wait until after the first debate and then we can panic if we are down.
October 14, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Many on the site also pointed out the ground game as not being noticed in the poll. They also pointed out the growing number of monetary donations to the campaign...If the polls held true the monetary amounts should have decreased.
October 14, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is a big difference between a margin of 3 (the best McCain could muster) and a margin of 10.
Its pretty easy for a poll to be off 3, 4, even 5 points. For reference, go check out some of the wildly humorous ARG polls during the primaries. At 10, however, you would have to spill coffee on your polling data to mess up the topline result.
Head over to fivethirtyeight.com and find Nate's post on the correlation between the national margin and the final EC margin. At +10 - we are talking a serious bruising. Even if the polls are 5 points off - +5 also results in a low 300 EC victory for Obama.
You can also check out RCPs 2004 battleground state averages. RCP (yes, some people hate them) uses a simple no-science-involved average on the polls. If you compare their 2004 averages to the final results - you will find that the margins are all within 3 points.
So, in summary, the national average right now is 8. You can safely say "We are winning." Even if the current polling proved to be, historically, the worst polling ever done - we would still be winning.
October 14, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is the blog entry on 538 that I was talking about:
Popular Vote v Electoral Vote, Part II
And here are the 2004 RCP battleground averages:
2004 RCP averages
October 14, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's been running his Taxes ad pretty heavily during Baseball LCS and major football games.
Also on the Military Channel
October 14, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ground game, demeanor, consistent message, they all are good, and polls are the fruit of all that. Would anything count if we were 13-14% down now? How would we or the Obama campaign behave were he to be double digit behind? It is the poll that helps stay calm, stay on one message, and stay the course. I'd trade anything for polls.
Is that enough? No. We have heck of a lot work to do to translate those poll numbers into actual votes, now and on Nov. 4.
October 14, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Olbermann doing a great job with ACORN and the history and the DOJ fired lawyers - has David Iglesias, the asst. prosecutor from New Mexico, on tonight.
October 14, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn you Olbermann. You're the anti-Blitzer on ACORN, and chicks dig you!
October 14, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good to hear that after all the nonsense about ACORN -- about time someone start setting the fact straight. Every single smear from the Scum camp should badly backfire, and next up is ACORN.
October 14, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
And in response, intrade hits the 80.0 mark for Obama.
October 14, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just the other day I listened to Stephanopolous on Bill Press say it was amazing that the race was still close - that the Dem should be up by at least 12 at this point. He was obviously cherry-picking. Suck on this poll, Georgie boy!
October 14, 2008 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unffingbelievable. Just can't get past the flag pin ordeal can he?
October 14, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting stuff in the poll. Looking very good. The weighting didn't seem too off either in my view- seems to favor Independents though.
October 14, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Somebody tell Keith O to chill.
October 14, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those who are nervous about the election - I really like the focus over at DailyKos (aka the great orange satan). Kos has latched onto a quote of James Carville:
Work hard, don't relax. But don't do it out of desperation - this is about running up the score. This is about paying back old debts. We can not only win this election, but with a little more work we can break the back of the Gingrich/DeLay/Bush conservative movement.
Throw the f*ckers an anvil.
October 14, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think we are in general agreement, but I disagree with the perspective here. I wouldn't worry about throwing an anvil at anyone. It's not about their guy losing or any kind of payback. This isn't about running up the score... It's about being prepared for anything and not letting up. It's about Obama winning and hopefully implementing progressive policies that help out the nation and the rest of the world.
October 14, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Either way will work, I bet.
Let's make it a LANDSLIDE!
October 15, 2008 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Against Eric's composite of 5 polls,
CBS/NYT: 53-39
Battleground: 53-40
dKos/R2K: 52-41
Gallup: 53-43
ABC/Post: 53-43
The average of these 5 polls gives Obama 11.6%.
As Tena said above, Obama must be way ahead than these polls indicate, so I'll go with Friday's Newsweek poll that had Obama leading by 15%.
October 14, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, this nugget means something even more important than Obama's tax message is sinking in. It's so important that I'm surprised that nobody has pointed it out yet.
This means that to voters, John McCain simply isn't believable. He's been hitting the "Obama the tax-raiser" theme for weeks now, and if this is the result, he might as well just suspend his campaign again, because he's in for a major asswoopin in 3 weeks.
October 14, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with hello_world.
I'm not sure how much this crosstab really tells us about taxes. I am sure what it tells us about the Republican brand.
Voters don't trust Republicans to
-- tell the truth
-- look out for people like them
-- or serve the public interest.
October 14, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me get this straight: McCain and Palin, like Bush, say "Government is the Problem." They pretend to be for fiscal restarint and against taxes. Bush's tax cuts and disastrous deregulatory, "trickle down," tax cuts for-the rich-only economic policies have left millions jobless, while creating the largest deficits in American history, and more federal debt than 220 years of history preceding him combined.
But they argue that Obama will cerate more big government, not them. McSame and Palin say they are against big government, but have no problem with the shredding of the constitution, un-warranted spying on all Americans, or forcing women to have babies when they are raped, or criminalizing the agonizing personal decision to have an abortion.
All this reminds me of a frightening book I've recently read, a sequel to 1984 that takes place just six years from now, called America 2014: An Orwellian tone I swear! My favorite are the altered Bill of Rights. Seriously check em out at www.Bush1984.com. It's so close to reality It makes me fear our "democracy" is turning into the reality in this book.
October 14, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
O if you want to get all paranoid, I suggest you google "John Titor."
I swear the facts are staring to cut it awful close to his predictions.
there ya go - find a dystopian fantasy and chances are you can make it fit your dystopia.
;)
October 14, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
In a dash of good news for the McCain campaign, McCain clings onto a slim lead within the McCain and Palin families.
October 14, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
The poll numbers look good. As a Floridian, though, I'll believe Obama's won when McCain concedes. That will be one euphoric day.
October 14, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate @ 538 says that John McCain has entered the "dead girl, live boy" territory". That's all he can hope for now. The worst thing he can do to Obama is endorse him.
October 14, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink