Poll: McCain's Foreign Policy Advantage Nearly Non-Existent In Three Biggest Battlegrounds
Still more stunning numbers, from today's Quinnipiac poll of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:
By smaller margins of two to six points, voters say they trust McCain more than Obama to handle foreign policy...Senator Obama...is winning among all age groups in all three states. He wins women by more than 20 points in Ohio and Pennsylvania and is competitive among men in all three states. Whether voters went to college or not, they are voting for him.
"Perhaps the most remarkable development is that Obama is doing significantly better among white, born again evangelicals in Ohio and Pennsylvania than did Democratic nominee John Kerry four years ago. He also is winning Roman Catholics in those states, historically the key swing voter group in the electorate and synonymous here with the blue-collar vote.
McCain is now preferred on foreign policy by only two to six points -- way too close for comfort on his signature issue. Now, it's true that the foreign policy numbers shift depending on how the question is asked. For instance, if you phrase the question around who is better prepared to handle terrorism or international crises, you might get different numbers.
Still, the fact that McCain's foreign policy advantage is nearly non-existent in the three biggest battlegrounds -- despite McCain's attacks on Obama as basically unable or perhaps unwilling to prevent terrorists from blowing you up -- is pretty startling, and may help explain why he's doing so well with blue-collar whites in those states, too.
TPM:
Your Poll Tracker results for IL-Pres, Oct 23 SUSA can't possibly be correct. You have O = 49%, M = 44%. I think those numbers may reflect only the candidates' standings in the 11th District.
October 23, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can tell. It shows McScum winning a few states.
Look, whaddya want, a fancy-shmantzy flash app where you have to dig around for the data, or some lame-ass sooo-yesterday page where you can see everything at once?
October 23, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Third attempt at this (I fucking hate this new system)
What makes a state a battleground?
Because I don't think PA counts.
October 23, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Neither do I. Neither is Virginia. The current "battlegrounds" or "swing states" are as follows: NC, FL, OH, IN, MO, NV, ND, MT, and, to a lesser extent, I would include CO and GA in there. Though recent polls and recent moves by McCain on his spending in the state suggest that CO is no longer a swing state. If McCain has given up CO, he's practically given up the election.
Kerry's states + IA + NM + CO = 273 EVs.
October 23, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds about right. Certainly NV, although small, definitely counts in close election.
The tracking poll graphic and the periodic reports of poll of polls don't track either. Yesterday, it was 51-point-something versus the graphic at 49.8 or so.
This TPM polling thing seems off to me. Better link to 538 and be done with it.
October 23, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most telling thing to me is that Obama (a Democrat) is polling better than McCain (a Republican) on, of all things, TAXES.
You know that a Republican's chances are pretty slim when polling suggests that their opponent is better on a bread-and-butter Republican issue.
Oh, and Obama IS better on taxes, for the record. :)
http://thepajamapundit.com/
October 23, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agree. the taxes numbers are amazing, and this shows up in poll after poll.
October 23, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's because we finally have a candidate who knows how to keep message discipline! Obama has made a very easy argument on taxes (make less than 250k, get a tax cut) and has hammered it home with no wavering. For years, the Republicans were masters at this while Democrats presented very nuanced and convoluted arguments (I'm not judging their merits here, just their presentation) which did not resonate with the American people, or were vulnerable to spin.
I think Obama's plan here was "keep it simple, stupid" and it's been a smashing success. Good on him!
October 23, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's amazing what a shitty economy and huge advertising budget can do for your perception.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 23, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that is because Obama did one thing that Democrats have avoided doing in years. And that is telling the people directly and plainly what his plan is and how it will work. It is remarkably simple, and Obama, Axelrod, and Plouffe should get massive credit for taking a plan and boiling it down to under 15 words and making it understandable.
More than that, they made it memorable and familiar: Taxes will increase to Clinton-year levels on everyone making $250,000 or more; everyone making under 250 get a tax cut; 95% of Americans get a tax cut.
What was Kerry's tax plan? Or Gore's?
I think the steady drumbeat by a courageous campaign willing to state their plan has made all the difference.
October 23, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually it's even simpler than that: If you make more than $250,000, your taxes go up to Clinton-year levels; if you are part of the 95% of Americans making less, your takes go down.
You can almost sing along to it, it's so familiar. That is a significant and understated accomplishment.
I think the Joe the Plumber thing backfired for this reason. It accepted Obama's formulation and presentation. By doing so, it reinforced it.
October 23, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Tena and I did well under the Bush tax cuts, but we did better under Clinton.
In the first place, I cannot be happy with some kind of phony windfall we didn't earn or deserve, especially when I know what that means to the economy and everyone in the country below the 25% tax bracket.
I cannot be happy with loads of folding money when I know there are over 500,000 people who just lost their jobs -
October 23, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. My taxes will go up, but so what? I can afford it.
And the world I live in is a much more rewarding place when the people in it are happy and doing well. I like the idea of trickle-up.
October 23, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Goddamn it that's the truth.
I don't know what the uber-rich lack that they can be perfectly happy fucking over the rest of the world so they can spend another $3500 on a pair of shoes -
October 23, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
mcShame: the more you see and hear about him, the more you like his opponent.
Battlegrounds have been subjected to a lot of mcShame. Could that be the explanation?
October 23, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Goldwater's granddaughter endorses Obama.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cc-goldwater/why-mccain-has-lost-our-v_b_137150.html
October 23, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
O that's going to leave a mark.
I heard 12 times yesterday at least that McLame's hero is Goldwater.
That one is gonna hurt.
October 23, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
There has to be something missing in these polls. I mean, Obama is leading by 10 in Indiana and by 12 in Ohio?... According to CNN, it's within the margin of error in Ohio and look at Florida: pollsters don't agree, it's Obama up or McCain up depending on which poll you look at. Is Quinnipiac really trust-worthy? I mean, 12 points in Ohio... That would just mean the 'Joe the Plumber' thing is a blow for McCain. 10 points in Indiana? Has anyone seen the internals?
October 23, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
10 in Indiana and 12 in Ohio are most likely outliers.
October 23, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Likin the trend though. No sign of McCain closing the gap meaningfully.
October 23, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
MoEs are computed for a 95% confidence level. That means one time in 20 you'll get results where the true value lies outside of your MoE. I.e., an outlier.
October 23, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like how Nate at 538 put it. A number like 10 or 12 probably represents a best of all possible worlds scenario.
An outlier is generally when something is really screwed up and "wrong" with the poll. This could well be just the upper limit of the margin of error given the recent Omentum.
October 23, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't we have a double digit lead without it having to be an outlier?
- don't answer: it's an all-purpose whine.
sorry.
October 23, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
No outliers. As Nate said they are a best case scenario. If we win big, it will be BIG in these states. Running up the score in several states while winning a few shockers (GA,AR,ND,MT, AND/OR WV)
October 23, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nate said he thinks they're "best case scenarios" but does not discount the possibility that they're just outliers.
October 23, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
True, it can be viewed both ways methinks. Nov. 4th will tell the story of twhat they are.
October 23, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely. I don't even know why they release these polls... It makes them look silly :D. Right now, no one knows how the race is in Ohio and Florida. I'm sure Obama will win them both but, mostly Florida because turnout in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward will be huge, but any poll that says Ohio is not too close to call right now looks missleading to me.
October 23, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
For argument's sake let's assume these polls are 100% outliers (which they could very well be). They will still garner a fair amount of attention and help further demoralize the McCain camp.
Further, people like a winner and there is always the possibility of them helping generate a bandwagon effect.
It's also just as likely I'm talking out of my arse here...
October 23, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
i actually don't mind if the mainstream polls continue to lowball obama's numbers. if it's gonna be a landslide, i know i'll enjoy reading headlines on nov. 5th about a "shocking" landslide much more than a predictable one.
October 23, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone here live in North Dakota? Is there anything real about Obama's chances there?
October 23, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nope. Just you :-)
October 23, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
-45ยบ keeps out the riff raff. ;-P
October 23, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Simple reason for this . . .
McCain has simply "run out of gas"! All he has left are the same old repetitive sound bites and a running mate that lures a few with short/short skirts.
October 23, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Payback for thumbing his nose at tire inflation!
October 23, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Remember when the McCain camp went crazy when that ABC poll showed Obama up 9? They didn't have enough days to rebut all the polls showing a double digit win for Obama HA!
October 23, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice graph of Republican Budget Policy compared to Clinton at:
http://fleetingmatters.wordpress.com/
October 23, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, the poll getting the most MSM coverage, because it's an AP poll, is a McCain-favoring outlier, showing Obama basically tied with McCain nationally.
October 23, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a robocall from Barack Obama. Disgusting, isn't it?
"Hello, I'm calling for Barack Obama and the DNC because you need to know that John McCain has gone on joint vacations with convicted felon Charles Keating, whose Lincoln Savings scammed thousands out of their savings, and held a fund-raiser in the living room of another convicted felon, G. Gordon Liddy, who advocated killing people and was part of the Watergate break-in. And Republicans will enact an extreme right-wing agenda if they take control of Washington. Sarah Palin and her Republican allies lack the judgment to lead our country. This call was paid for by Obama-Biden 2008 and the Democratic National Committee at 202-863-8500."
Oops, just kidding. Here, however, is the real robocall that's actually being used:
"Hello. I'm calling for John McCain and the RNC because you need to know that Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. Capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's home and killed Americans. And Democrats will enact an extreme leftist agenda if they take control of Washington. Barack Obama and his allies lack the judgment to lead our country. This call was paid for by McCain-Palin 2008 and the Republican National Committee at 202-863-8500."
Which do you like better?
October 23, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink