Poll: McCain's Challenge At Debate Tonight Is Formidable
Here, courtesy of the new NBC/WSJ poll's internals, are some key numbers to chew over as we head into tonight's debate:
* Thirty-four percent feel more reassured by Obama's approach to dealing with the current financial crisis, versus 25% for McCain. Meanwhile, only 29% feel less reassured by Obama, versus 38% for McCain.
* Obama-Biden slaughtered McCain-Palin in the last two debates, with 50% saying Obama-Biden did a better job, versus only 29% for McCain-Palin.
* Obama's advantage on the economy in general is formidable: 46% say Obama would be better on that issue, versus 29% for McCain.
* Obama holds a sizable edge on other domestic issues polled here, including the mortgage and housing crisis, and energy and the cost of gas.
The upshot: As many others have observed, the pressure on McCain tonight to do something to jolt the electorate into seeing this race in a new way is now enormous. The race's dynamic is hardening by the hour: The public has gotten a close look at the candidates in debate settings, and feel more reassured by Obama-Biden on the issues that matter to them.
The problem for McCain is that he needs to go hard-negative in a dramatic, confrontational, attention-grabbing fashion, most likely on Obama's associations, which of course risks looking desperate and allows Obama to remind voters that McCain's own senior adviser said the McCain team doesn't want to talk about the economic crisis.
Tonight's debate, and the public's response to it, will tell us whether the race has come to resemble quicksand: The more McCain and Palin thrash around, the quicker they sink.
Ooo Greggy - formidable?
Gee, I am getting the idea you don't like McLame - Painful -
LOLOLOLOL!!!!!!
October 7, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think McCain will do reasonably well in tonight's debate given that it is a townhall format, and the moderator Tom Brokaw is one of his close friends, so he'll get softball questions.
October 7, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think all of the questions come from the audience and the internet, pre-screened, and there's no follow-up by the moderator.
October 7, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Brokaw gets to pick the questions and Ben Smith at Politico said that Brokaw didn't agree to the debate agreement not to do follow-up questions, so he may do them.
October 7, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's what Palin just said at the rally:
http://news.jacksonville.com/elections2008/live-coverage-of-palins-visit/
October 7, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
And more from that odious witch:
October 7, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Seeing as she lies as easily as she winks, I have to wonder what she is distorting when she claims Obama's team says 'no knowledge at the time' of Ayers' background.
It is of course a distraction, and there are far more odious and relevant Bad Associations(tm) on the Palin / McCain ticket (we all know 'em, no need to list here).
The idea is to paint Obama as a liar and a sneak. Priceless, when you consider the source.
BTW: Jesus' General.(NSFW) My pick for funniest blog entry of the day.
October 7, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
How can McCain whip up anger against Obama without seeming angry?
That's a needle that I seriously doubt he can thread, even with Brokaw holding his hand throughout the evening. You can't teach an old dog new tricks.
October 7, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Im sure McCain's buddy Brokaw will throw him a favor or two.
October 7, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Brokaw may have enough of his own ego wrapped around him that public perception of him isn't that big a deal to him - on the other hand, every reporter out there is chomping at the bit to get ahold of Sarah Palin and make themselves into the kind of figure Katie Couric managed - she's suddenly taken seriously; she did herself quite a bit of good.
Journalists will follow the trend. But Brokaw I don't know - he's been around so long and loves himself so much, who knows.
October 7, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Part of my hope is in the crowd. Many of them are not going to be quiet if an inane and irrelevant question is chosen.
October 7, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Plus the viewers with their hand on the button can penalize Brokaw for bad questions. I hope they will.
October 7, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's encouraging.
I didn't know there was an audience with some control.
October 7, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, they don't have real "control" - but I'm thinking of those "lines" where they can express approval or disapproval. And for all you know, Brokaw's crew will keep an eye on that - and feed him info. They should!
October 7, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
How is the crowd being selected? Was it just first-come, first-serve? If it was, don't expect a lot of crowd support for Obama. McCain is way up in Tennessee.
October 7, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I heard on the radio today that it was randomly chose by Gallup of local Nashville voters.
October 7, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
And Nashville isn't like the rest of Tennessee.
October 7, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
After Chicken George and his pal over at ABC did their thing I dont put anything past these frauds.
I just don't see Brokaw not softballing Johnny and hitting Obama below the belt.
October 7, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well she's definitely in barracuda mode now.
She's preaching to one hell of a volatile choir and if anyone from her audiences tries anything I hope to hell she and McLame get the blame. That's so fucking dangerous -
October 7, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Barack and Joe like BBQ'd baracuda!! No "mccain sauce," it's too bitter.
October 7, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's time for the MSM to take Palin down with her slingling of crap and "hate" speech. Why cover someone who is running from the public and media and feels that she can lie and lis-lead poeple.
October 7, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's what I think the media should do:
Equip every reporter and camera person (attending rallies of the Vendetta Twins) with a flack jacket and helmet. Make it known. Show the footage.
That would do more than words. More than anything. It would protect the press. And make it evident that chaos and anarchy were being incited at mcShame Vendetta Events.
October 7, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is probably going to try to manufacturer a controversy tonight. He'll take umbrage at some harmless comment in a way that only old cranky white people can do. He needs the drama. He's going to take his war medals out of his pocket and shove them in Obama's face or something. I predict some sort of prop popping up.
October 7, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Umbrage. Yup!
October 7, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can see it now: McCain goes Pulp fiction (as modified for debate)
Five long years, he wore this watch up his ass. Then when he died of dysentery, he gave me the watch. I hid this uncomfortable piece of metal up my ass for two years. Then, after seven years, I was sent home to my family. And now, little man, I give the watch to you.
October 7, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't it common knowledge around here before the first debate that the "debates don't matter"? Obama and Biden both proved that wrong, with the polls now all topsy-turvey.
All Obama has to do is show up and be himself. I don't think he ought to be in coast mode yet, but I think McCain's bullshit is now pretty much a non-issue. I mean, what can he pull out of his hat?
October 7, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin may be firing up her own base, but does anyone in McCain's camp think this is actually going to work on moderate Republicans or Independents?
October 7, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's the question, innit?
What are they doing? There's not enough of that base - are they trying to preserve a core to rebuild on? I can't figure it out -
October 7, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Digging themselves deeper they are. Spinning wheels.
October 7, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know what I think, I think that McCain is not even really trying to win at this point. No one legitimately aiming to win would announce that they plan to cut Medicare benefits for wealthy seniors. This is political suicide, especially for a Republican because a Republican needs Florida in order to win. The fact that McCain's campaign was willing to say that yesterday suggests to me that he is no longer seriously aiming for victory. Instead, I think that the plan is just to 1) rally the base to get them juiced about the party and 2) beat up on Obama enough to take his favorable ratings down a notch or two. The goal is not to win this year, but rather to lay the foundations for an effort to retake one or both houses of Congress in the 2010 midterms.
October 7, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know what, I think you're right.
He's just determined to sully Obama as much as possible before he's gone.
Clinton seemed determined to do that same thing at the end of the primaries - with her, who knows? I think she was playing hardball politics. McLame is just fucking furious. That's all there is to that. He cannot believe he's losing especially to a bi-racial candidate.
I am just sure CooCoo promised McLame the presidency. That's one way he kept him close in '04. Bush kept McLame close like he did because he knew McLame was an enemy and he needed to be watched. And Bush never intended to help McLame and will not as if Bush had any help he could offer anyone. He's totally irrelevant at this point - in fact, it's almost shocking the extent to which this most hated president has all but disappeared.
October 7, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't count on this being a giving up tactic. I suspect that the only internals they have where Obama is hurting is on issues of Obama's past, whether it is that voters claim they do not "know him" or that he is "inexperienced." It's all that the McCain camp's got at this point. They're polling terribly on almost every other issue, it seems, so they're playing it to the hilt. I think they're overplaying it, just like they've overplayed everything in the campaign since Schmidt took over. They seem tone deaf toward independents. I actually think a similar strategy (executed much more reasonably and moderately, rather than through fear mongering and temper tantrums) might have worked at one point, but since they have started this so late, they have to make the message over the top in order for it to get covered. And we can only hope that it is turning off independents as much as their negative attacks did in the debates.
And let's hope Obama doesn't "take off the gloves" in tonight's debate. I know that we all want him to, but I suspect that the team has done so well in the debates because they appear to answer the questions and seem reasonable and reassuring. The more McCain screams that Obama isn't trustworthy, the more his statements are falsified by Obama's measured demeanor.
October 7, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fine. I see the sense of what you are saying here, but I still come back to the question of why in God's own name would the McCain camp announce that they plan to fund their health plan by cutting Medicare benefits. Sure, that plays well to the hard-core conservative base that hates government entitlements, but it is political suicide among Florida retirees. In other words, their campaign yesterday deliberately chose to cost themselves independent swing votes in a very critical swing state in exchange for a more energized base. I can only make sense of that choice if I postulate that they are giving this election up for lost and simply looking farther down the road.
October 7, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It may be that they are giving up Florida as lost, but not the whole election. It may also be yet another sign that the McCain campaign is abysmal at message control. In that sense, they are not like the Rove-Bush model at all.
I think it could also be representative of the tension going on with McCain throughout this campaign: his self-fashioned (albeit false) image to which he is intensely attached versus his willingness to sell his soul and body in order to win the election. Even though all empirical evidence demonstrates his crap is bunk, I think the guy really believes his own hype, and on some level, he clings to the idea that his reasoning will influence voters because it just *should.* This is why he goes on an on about earmarks even though no polling data has ever supported this has been very effective. But in McCain's own mind, I really think he believes this is somehow essential to who he is. I suspect the same thing might be true about Medicare. He knows it must be cut to fund his tax cuts, so he is being "honest" with the American people in a way that Obama isn't. In some ways, he still seems to think this is 1996 or something.
Don't get me wrong: I think this is 100% delusional. But I think this is a man who really believes the spin he's created about himself, and he believes that the world just ought to operate the way he says it should. In those moments: earmarks and Medicare. But another part of him knows that he will not win doing this, and in these moments of desperation he fires his campaign staff and brings on Eskew to do the dirty work. I think we should definitely hold him accountable for all of this fear mongering hate speech, but I think he's convinced himself somehow that that's not really him, but just the way to win elections. (See: confederate flag in SC in 2000.) He can't follow through all the way, though, because he is in love with himself and thinks he deserves to be president. So he turns around and tries to say reasonable stuff or "talk straight." It just confuses and irritates voters, but he can't seem to stop himself.
October 7, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tacking on to your point, it also seems they're grooming Palin for a run in 2012.
October 7, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that Obama's task tonight is more formidable than McCain's:
1) McCain, for better or worse, is more comfortable in town hall atmospheres than Obama;
2) McCain is unpredictable, while Obama is steadier. Who knows what McCain will pull out of his hat tonight? It is easier for McCain to prepare for Obama than vice versa.
October 7, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've seen Obama in a town-hall type meeting. He was great!
October 7, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I so disagree and I'm so not worried.
I think there's a better than 50-50 chance McLame will blow sky-high.
October 7, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even if it isn't sky high, McCain doesn't come across well when he's peeved. Actually I think there are few politicians who can go on the attack in a townhall setting and make it work. Especially in an atmosphere where people are craving solutions, not smears.
October 7, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
word
October 7, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
And how can he not be PO'd? He's worked himself into such a lather the last two days (indeed prior to and throughout the first debate), that I think his emotion will be palpable and boiling. I look for some thing to pop in McCain tonite that leads to contempt, outright anger, SOMETHING.
And I hope those watching have a moment of "WTF?" when they see it.
Working the phones last nite for the WI Dems, there were a whole bunch of undecideds in my VERY conservative county. Two weeks ago, there were many more Repub-backers. I think things have changed for the better in two weeks for Obama at least in my locale.
October 7, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
So many people want Obama signs - and nary one to be found!
October 7, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Word up. These are supposedly undecided voters, not rabid partisans. I don't know what McBush is trying to do getting all personal and stuff knowing he has to face a bunch of supposedly undecided voters on Tuesday night. How do you just turn this stuff on and off? Mac had better watch out, or he'll get his ass handed to him on a paper plate.
October 7, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I too think that Obama will do fine.
My original statement of caveat perhaps comes from the fact that I am a NY Giants fan from back in the days when Joe Pisarcik infamously snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the Eagles.
My concern also stems from watching Dem candidacies blow up in the waning moments of Presidential campaigns.
Whether or not Obama does well, I do think that he absolutely has a greater challenge in preparing than McCain. McCain's unpredictability is the X Factor for tonight.
October 7, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you need to be more specific about Dems waning. After two debates in the past two presidential elections, both Gore and Kerry were down, and the numbers were trending away from them. In fact, based on pollster.com's graph, it looks like that Gore's end number ended up exceeding polls' predictions immediately before the race, though only by 2 points.
Don't get so caught up in the media hype that elections can be won and lost in the final few days. That might be true given our new 24 hour news cycle, but it might not. It certainly wasn't true historically. And I think so much of this noise on tv is something people are tuning out by this point. I'm not saying it's a lock for Obama, but most pollsters are indicating that at this point, people's opinions are solidifying and they are much harder to sway.
And I think McCain's unpredictability has shown itself to be a rather significant deficit among non-hard-core Republicans. After Bush, people don't want unpredictable.
October 7, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking as a long suffering Eagles fan who remembers that play all I can say is, at least the Giants have won a Super Bowl(s).
October 7, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm kinda hoping his skin turns green and he starts smashing everything in sight.
October 7, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's townhall experience is mainly with friendly crowds that toss him softball questions. And he didn't have an opponent (whom he dislikes intensely) sharing the stage. Plus, this is really is for all the marbles from the McCain camp's pov. So how he has done in the past is not that much to go on.
October 7, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you. McCain and Palin are throwing shit bombs without regard to the truth. Obama can come off too hot or too cool. He has a very tough job. Nothing is in the bag. I look for tonight to be a really good night for McCain. Never forget it is going to be two v. one in the debate. Brokaw, like nearly all of the millionaire network taking heads, is an unabashed McCain supporter.
October 7, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
The idea that McCain is much better in town hall meetings is a line put out by the campaign this summer in support of their "ten town halls" tactic, but there isn't a lot of evidence that it's true. Basically, their argument seemed to be that because Obama is better in nearly every other format, and McCain doesn't completely suck at town halls, that must mean that McCain is great at town halls. It didn't add up then, and it doesn't now, but we should use it to raise expectations nonetheless.
October 7, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice metaphor for what's going on.
I think even McShame and Failin -- or at least their handlers -- have to recognize that they can't win in the current environment and that their shit-throwing is more likely to boomerang and hit them in the face than taint Obama. (See, your metaphor is way better.)
What I'm most scared about is that what they're really trying to do is unleash the crazies convinced that Obama is the anti-Christ. They're out there and if they think McShame has given them the green light to do their thing, that would be the worst possible nightmare.
October 7, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Quicksand. Sinking.
http://picasaweb.google.com/warpstation/MccainHeadache#5251640084526955554
October 7, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am also afraid they are tying to unleash the crazies. It only takes one nut job to sink America into a national nightmare. It would seem that McCain and especially Palin are trying to incite violence.
October 7, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Win at all costs -- that's their strategy. If the ballot box won't do it, they seem to be willing to do the unthinkable.
October 7, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some other thoughts about the contenders. Obama's voice is reassuring. It "holds" you. His speech cadence is slow and calm. Soothing. So you listen to his words, which make sense.
mcShame, on the other hand, is wired tight. His jaw alone is off-putting. He rushes into sentences in ways that leave a viewer in the dust. There's no "there" there. You flinch or tune out. The man is gripped by rage and resentment. You have the sense he's one breath away from punching somebody out.
Given a choice, most sane viewers will gravitate to the tall, thin guy who seems to know where he's going and doesn't need to punch anyone out on his way there. Indeed, he calls you to come along with him. The road he sees ahead may be a hard one, the journey difficult, but he gives you the sense we're all in this together. We can do it. We'll make it work.
October 7, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink