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Poll: A Dead Heat In McCain's Home State Of Arizona

Another poll shows that John McCain could be in serious danger of losing his home state of Arizona -- and remember, the Obama campaign just announced that they'll be advertising there for the first time in the general election.

The new numbers from Research 2000: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, with a ±4% margin of error. The key number from the internals is that Obama is winning the early vote by a 54%-42% margin, and this group is expected to make up 17% of the total likely voters.

Another important number, showing McCain's latent vulnerability: In a test run for his 2010 re-election against Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, McCain is trailing 53%-45%.


66 Comments

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Anybody who lives near AZ better get over there and lend a hand. (paging Tena.... ok, now I'm off to do some errands, Tena... get in your car and drive!)

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Calling all Californians: Get yourselves to AZ.

(in NM, it's not totally in the bag, I'm volunteering here this weekend)

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And if you can't leave CA, help us out on No on Prop 10. To clear up confusion, defeating prop 10 keeps same sex marriage legal.

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I thought it was Prop 8 not Prop 10?

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O thank you, Little Baby Jebus. Thank you so much!

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It's the Rapture I tell you!

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Does anyone know for certain that Janet Napolitano is going to challenge McCain in 2012?

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I doubt that McCain will even run again, whether or not Napolitano throws her hat in the ring.

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Well if he does, I want to know where to send my donation to his opponent.

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I want Obama to win by a landslide.

But winning Arizona? It's uncomfortably like grinding McCain's face in the dirt of his state and yelling, "EAT IT, OLD MAN!!!"

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No humiliation is too great for McShame, the mendacious shit-weasel.

"Terrorist, Marxist, anti-semite, liar, etc. etc.".

The dishonourable son-of-a-bitch has it coming and I, for one, haven't an iota of sympathy for him.

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After the last 8 years, and being called "un-American", I'll gladly (figuratively) grind gravel into the Republicans faces.

It's called "teaching a lesson". Look, you don't want't to get hurt like this again? Then don't subvert the Constitution and treat those who don't agree with you as treasonous.

Sorry, but I'm too full of schadenfreude to worry about McCain's feelings right now. He should have thought of that before he took his campaign into the cesspool.

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I find myself torn. Part of what initially drew me to Obama was his call for us to put such bickering behind us, but I must admit that your approach also has an obvious attraction. If the Republicans are willing to put such scurrilous tactics behind them as demonizing us for defending our Constitution, then I am willing to let bygones be bygones, but if they are not them a well administered lesson in what-goes-around-comes-around seems altogether fitting and apt.

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Just remember to be patient. it took the democrats eight years of push to reclaim their populist progressive roots. The republicans have them as well, they just haven't been seen since Ike. It may take a while for us to affect a transformation of our party. It may not even succeed, not matter how necessary to finding sustainable solutions for American's problems.

I can guarantee that it will take twice as long or not succeed at all if democrats can't find that mythical empathy we have heard so much about. Not every republican is a neocon and being absent from the discussion is not an indictment of guilt for rank and file voters, not matter what their political persuasion.

I would ask democrats to be magnanimous in victory, patient in practice and follow the lead of your new president when it comes to relations with the "opposition" party.

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You are right. We can express anger privately. But we need to get a grip and reach out to all those folks who are good and decent people - but just scared. Be compassionate - even if it takes everything you've got.

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You sound like a Republican I can believe in. . .

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Well, I am new at it, so perhaps that is where the cognitive dissonance comes from. :O)

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Hey - Gore lost Tennessee.

Payback time.

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I'm glad you're all reminding me that karma is a beeotch.

I guess it's just that, inside, I'm all:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcxCdDXm7ao

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I'd love to see Obama win Arizona. Not so much because I want to see McCain ground into dust. Really, it isn't that at all. I want to see a blue Arizona so it shows the actions of their Senator in the way he's running his campaign (me first, screw the country) are not going to be tolerated in politics anymore. Sure, it's a pipe dream but it's mine and I like it.

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Humiliations galore! This early voting really can't be underestimated. By all indications Obama has planned for it, kinda like mapping out the delegate path in the primary, while the McCain campaign is playing by 1980 rules.

http://pufferfish.typepad.com/

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Instead of calling Obama 'eloquent', they should have labeled him a 'strategist'. Maybe then they would have taken him more seriously. This is just too funny.

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Greater love hath no man than this: if Obama trounces McVile in Az., I'll quit smoking. That's how badly I want to see it happen...

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... if Obama trounces McVile in Az...

Trounces?  That's kinda weasly :-)

How 'bout if he edges McSlime in AZ but trounces him nationally?

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Howzabout he trounces him absolutely fucking everywhere? Weasely, my rosy red ass...

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Absolutely. Screw 'em everywhere. I've still got some really bad memories of the first Tuesday in 1984 that I need exorcised.

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I likes you so much.

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Weasely, my rosy red ass...

Heh.  I'm sure you've tried to quit before.  I'm struggling with it right now.

Those ambiguous promises can look awfully fuzzy in the rear-view mirror when those cigs are calling your name!

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Trick or Treat, Johnny!

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The hope and news here is fantastic...the end of of reagan economics...trickle down...rove tactics...fear...war...lies and corruption...cheney...torture..raids on our constitutional rights...

love it and tuesday night will be an outstanding occasion for all!

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Again:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcxCdDXm7ao

But the polls are narrowing! GOTV! Do your part, make this a LANDSLIDE!

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Or better yet, from the same film:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_xBT_xavzM

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AZ-Pres: Neck and neck...

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30.

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/31/11279/222/947/647893

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Obama will still lose AZ by 5-6 points, but the fact that it is that close will annoy McCain. Which I like.

Not to mention the fact that it will further support a media narrive of "this thing is over, McCain has to defend his own home state!"

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As I said earlier, this is just another example of Obama probably being wise to spend the dollars in that state.

At this point, it doesn't look like it's so much about winning as it is about making the map blue in a number of possible ways. Arizona, it seems, could be part of that.

But even if it is more about winning, this move also makes sense. If a few things go wrong in Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Arizona can be part of a backup plan.

Sure, it might seem like a waste of money, particularly if the Obama campaign is sending out e-mails telling supporters that they are being outspent by McCain and the RNC in West Virginia and Montana. But that supports that Obama is doing. He's taking the fight to them, and the only reason they are spending money in these states is because they think they have to do so. It's all about boxing them in.

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Hee hee, Rick Davis insists Iowa is dead even, but he doesn't mention Arizona is!

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Just looking at the map,,,, McCain doesn't seem to be doing so well in his old Confederacy base land,,,, good for Dixie, the tide is turning.

Jeff Davis and Mars Robin would not tolerate this presence in their day,,,, Change is truly coming. Win Georgia.

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Time to make another donation. I support full out war against the old man in my former college state!!!!!
(And you're right, hootowl, my area of dixie is goin' blue....please, God, please, God....)

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I wish somebody in the Obama would persuade Barack to go and campaign this weekend in Arizona.

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Somewhat OT, but I'm driving through the red regions of Wisconsin this week.

It's incredible - I'm seeing signs and hearing Dem radio ads for the state assembly (lower house) and Senate in areas that haven't even seen a Dem on the ballot in recent history. This is happening in districts where the Republican incumbents thought they'd be in for life!

Obama's landslide will be great. I can't wait to see the effect downticket. This could really be fun.

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As I said earlier, this is just another example of Obama probably being wise to spend the dollars in that state.

At this point, it doesn't look like it's so much about winning as it is about making the map blue in a number of possible ways. Arizona, it seems, could be part of that.

But even if it is more about winning, this move also makes sense. If a few things go wrong in Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Arizona can be part of a backup plan.

Sure, it might seem like a waste of money, particularly if the Obama campaign is sending out e-mails telling supporters that they are being outspent by McCain and the RNC in West Virginia and Montana. But that supports that Obama is doing. He's taking the fight to them, and the only reason they are spending money in these states is because they think they have to do so. It's all about boxing them in.

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Huh - Obama has a 24 or 25 point lead in Illinois...McCain has a ONE POINT lead in Arizona.

When is Rod Serling going to step out of the shadows, cigarette and all, and tell us we're in a Twilight Zone episode???

This is unfrickin-believable! YAAAYY!!!

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Time to make another donation. I support full out war against the old man in my former college state!!!!!
(And you're right, hootowl, my area of dixie is goin' blue....please, God, please, God....)

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YUP. Gotta bite the bullet!

Ba-Ba Ba-BOM! (Beethovan's 5th!) ♫ ♪ ♪

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I think Obama can win arizona. Weekly Reader says he will. That's my story and I'm sticking with it.

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The Kos is reporting in Arizona, Obama is leading McCain in early votes.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

Early voters (17 percent of sample)

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54


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Holy shit!

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What? McCain getting heat from some young upstart in his own backyard? Well there's nothing to say to that except:


THIS

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IS

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GREAT

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EXCELLENT

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IS...

Ah, fuck it, I'll do this my way...

THE ULTIMATE BITCH SLAP!!! FOR MCCAIN!!!

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EGG-CELLENT!

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NODES!!

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Winning Arizona would be gravy. It's not important to win Arizona, but I'm glad to see that Obama is advertising there if for no other reason than to get into McCain's head.

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O I disagree.

I think winning AZ would be one damn big deal.

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Yup. Practically unimportant, perhaps, but symbolically HUGE.

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Symbolic! Think the 4 notes of Beethovan's 5th: Ba-Ba Ba-BOM!

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Here's an excerpt from Stan Greenberg's letter to Bill McInturff.

True, McCain and Palin have made “Joe the Plumber” famous, but not in ways that have been helpful to McCain. In our tracking of people’s viewing of the news and communications over the previous few days, what they have heard about Obama has made them more favorable by 10 points (46 to 36 percent), while what they have heard about McCain has made them less favorable by 8 points (36 to 44 percent). Week after week, Obama gets favorable comments from voters, but McCain, mostly negative.

Last week, we tested the big, unfolding tax debate - including the “Joe the Plumber” storyline of wealth redistribution, raising taxes on the wealthy and cutting taxes for the middle class. Obama was winning that argument by 14 points (see Democracy Corps poll of 1,000 likely voters nationwide conducted October 21-23, 2008). In this battleground poll, Obama has taken virtually no water on being “too liberal” or “will raise my taxes” - both essentially unchanged over the past month at 51 percent.

In our regression modeling for the presidential battleground states, the two biggest drivers of the vote are who “brings the right kind of change” and who is “on your side.” Obama enjoys double-digit advantages over McCain on both - with about 53 percent of likely voters choosing him, creating an upward pressure on the vote. The structure of this race just has not changed as we have moved to the finish line.

http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?ID=2277


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Oops, a wrong thread! Sorry, it was supposed to be posted in the tax thread... nonetheless it's a good read.

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The irony of McCain's wins now being in remnants of the Old Confederacy, is that just like President Davis' comment during the winter of 63-64 when states with excess winter clothing, Georgia especially, would not share it with the armies of Lee and Johnson. In disgust, Davis observed that the Nation was dying of a theory, state soverignty,,,, John McCain'd campaign is likewise dying of a theory,,, a failed economic and governance model of what has become his own party. The Rove theory of slim baby slime isn't helping much either.

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"Davis observed that the Nation was dying of a theory, state soverignty,,,, "

I love that do you have a reference or a direct quote? It sums up this election and the last eight years perfectly.

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"Davis observed that the Nation was dying of a theory, state soverignty,,,, "

I love that do you have a reference or a direct quote? It sums up this election and the last eight years perfectly.

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PREDICTION:

Final tally: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, Others 3%.

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It wouldn't surprise me a bit if McCain did not run for re-election in 2010. The number of R's who have endorsed Obama is a pretty strong indicator that the slimy campaign he's run has badly damaged his reputation, perhaps permanently.

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McCain losing twice?
Reminds me of the old joke from the 60s. Definition of a three time loser; a pregnant prostitute wearing a Nixon pin while driving an Edsel.

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