Obama's Lead Keeps Growing In Tracking Polls
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, showing Barack Obama expanding his lead even further:
• Gallup: Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 48%-43% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 47%-42% Obama lead yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, the same as yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead 49.9%-42.5%, even wider than his lead yesterday of 49.4%-42.9%.
Bear in mind that these three-day surveys were conducted before last night's vice-presidential debate. As such, they don't tell us what effect -- if any -- that the debate had on the race. But what they do give us is a baseline for determining that effect as we see more polls over the next few days.
Major props, Eric.
That's perfect.
October 3, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just want to say that I agree with virtually all of your comments and you're one of my favorite commenters here.
(Then again I have a soft-spot for any avid reader of Japanese literature)
This is definitely fully in the bag for Obama now. All going to plan.
October 3, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
It ain't over till its over. Give. Volunteer.
October 3, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hard for me to do so when I live in Australia.
I have volunteered for dems abroad though.
October 3, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Donate: Another weekly $30 dropped yesterday.
Volunteer: Phonebanking NH this weekend.
Not letting up. One bit.
October 3, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
O thank you so much.
Yeah, Obama has closed.
Everyone promised me that Kerry was a closer. [rolls eyes] I love John Kerry and always will - he's a great American, IMO.
He's one of the worst campaigners I've ever seen.
October 3, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seconded.
On another note, what happened to my avatar?
October 3, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some people's avatars appear and disappear lately.
I don't know why - I'm pretty hopeless at that kind of thing, but you aren't alone.
October 3, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a web developer by trade, and I have a computer science degree.. I could probably fix the problem... (hint hint greg sargent/eric kleefield/someone)
October 3, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mine plays hide-n-seek too.
October 3, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Couldn't agree more. Wonderful man. Great American. But a Brahmin through and through.
Not a huge fan of Teresa either, she's like Peggy Guggenheim, without the good taste.
October 3, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Congrats, Tena - you are one of the very few I've seen here or anywhere able to draw the distinction between a candidate (Kerry was a very good candidate) and campaigners (he was a dreadful campaigner, most likely as a result of listening too closely to the likes of Bob Shrum, who needs to be traded to the Republicans for a second-round draft choice and cash).
October 3, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I expect these numbers to hold up very well following the debate. What did Palin do to help McCain last night? She proved she isn't a total idiot. How comforting.
October 3, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Spot-on. I think we're going to see another push up for Obama in the wake of this debate (And subsequent ones).
There is very little McCain can do at this point.
If I could write debate questions, I would try and throw in a bizarro-world FOX news style question with:
"Seeing as Obama is clearly the victor in this election, what will you, and your ignorant running mate, be doing in order to lose gracefully in november?"
October 3, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember the RNC is great at voter suppression & vote rigging. There are so many ways to tamper with votes in electronic voting it's absurd! Don't count McCain out just because he loses.
October 3, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
For vote tampering to be really effective, it's gotta be a close race to start.
Obama's showing in these tracking polls are beginning to show tamper-proof margins. While they're no means final, they seem to show that we're very close to the point where McCain is not going to be able to regain the lost ground.
And if it does get to the point where the election is disputed, that's when you'll see the true bare-knuckles Obama. He will not let McCain or anyone else take something from him that he has rightfully won. You can bet anything - everything - on Obama never, ever backing down if his win is in jeopardy of being taken away from him.
October 3, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
They like a 50-50 outcome. Then they can steal enough to cross the finish line. A 5-8 pt margin on election day would be hard to dispute and distort.
October 3, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, remember that most of the key swing states are now controlled in part or whole by Dems (OH, NM, PA, CO, and VA). It's a lot easier to cheat when the fox is guarding the hen house.
October 3, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
She proved she isn't a total idiot, but did little to persuade people that she's worthy of her prospective position. Even people who spoke positively of her qualified their support by acknowledging her lack of fitness to serve as VP.
Biden gave one of the best debate performances I have ever witnessed. He understood that his task was to attack McCain and fulfilled it in a way that was easy to understand while conveying a sense of intimacy and candor with both the issues and his audience.
October 3, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, she convinced people that maybe she really was qualified to be mayor of Wasilla.
October 3, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do not trust any polls that do contain a comparative Maverickyness Meter.
Sarah Palin's Soliloquy.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/10/sarah-palins-soliloquy.php
October 3, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Edit:
I do not trust any polls that do not contain a comparative Maverickyness Meter.
Sarah Palin's Soliloquy.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/10/sarah-palins-soliloquy.php
October 3, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well with the news of the job loss today plus the vote on the bill today, the next few days will be about the economy.
So the narrative will remain the same:
McWar is responsible for this mess thanks to his buddy GWB, he is angry and has poor judgement. And pitbull is brainless and has no substance...
So you can expect next debate to see McWar says "Senator Obama is dangerous..."
October 3, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
The next debate is going to be very interesting.
McLame knows he has lost this - I'll be really curious as to how he handles this.
My gut tells me right now that he is trying to figure out how to get out of it - he doesn't want to have to fuck with it when he's lost this already. He really hates Obama - god you can tell. You don't have to reach for it - he just physically always shows that the really cannot stand Barack.
I think it's because McLame cannot believe he's lost this election and particularly cannot believe he's lost it to an African American candidate.
ROFLMAO!!!!
The GOP consistently undersestimates the AMerican people. We are far more decent than they ever have given us credit for.
October 3, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I seriously think he has some form of psychological aversion to losing. Bill Gates has the same thing.
He's always been the underachiever, and now the one thing he came close to actually getting legitimately is being snatched away from him by an uppity young man, black no less.
This makes him *angry*, very *angry*.
Also I think McCain is realising that he's lost, why else would you start pulling out of states? He's just trying to minimize massive losses and maybe keep a state or two red.
October 3, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is almost molecule for molecule what has motivated Commander CooCoo Bananas - and underachiever with Daddy issues.
And god help us if we ever get another insecure president. That's what was wrong with Nixon - he was insecure. It's a killing trait in someone who aspires to leadership.
Jeez.
October 3, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand your Bill Gates reference. Can you please explain?
October 3, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
The difference is, Bill Gates is actually a pretty capable winner. And once he wins, he knows what to do with it. (Even now that he's out of day to day MS operations, look at his foundation work.)
October 3, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
But he didn't have anyone to pull the strings for him in any way that wouldn't have been openly apparent. When the media started to actually look at this guy for what he was and the shine on the turd wore off, it was inevitable.
Take an hour to read the Rolling Stone cover story for this month. Amazing at how the McCain brand is so far removed from the actual McCain.
October 3, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frankly I think everyone has tuned out McLame.
People know Obama isn't dangerous now.
October 3, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
People know Obama isn't dangerous now.
That was the most important thing Biden achieved last night. His performance helps to reassure undecided voters about the safety of electing Obama president.
October 3, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, no, no . . .
Sydney is responsible for this mess because of his ties to Phil Gramm.
October 3, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
October 3, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love seeing you here. You took a break a while back?
October 3, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow... I never like to get too high or low with the polls.... But GOD DAMN!!!!!!!!! What would be even better is a BIGGER ASS KICKING...
+12 or so by Sunday.... And then after BUSTING McCain in the MOUTH on the economy on Tuesday, +15 by Thursday....
I Love it....
October 3, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, but one of the moron commenters on TalkLeft will tell you that "we have a weak candidate- Hillary would be 20 points ahead on a bad week". [rolls eyes]
October 3, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
At least she can play the flute.
October 3, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
This one time? At band camp?
Ew, sorry. Did NOT need that mental image...
October 3, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure many instruments were played.
Just to reinforce things for you :)
October 3, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Plus, everyone, up to and including Bill and Hillary Clinton, have totally underestimated Barack Obama.
He's the best hustler I've ever seen operate. Don't ever bet money against him - seriously.
October 3, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's an expert poker player, you can tell.
October 3, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that absolutely unflappable exterior seems to have a way of frustrating opponents and making them self-destruct. It's an established pattern now- can't just be a string of coincidences.
October 3, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The poker face he has is amazing.
October 3, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The bailout passed.
October 3, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
A Kos diarist has assembled a catena of comments from p.o.'d RedState bloggers. This is hardly the most important document you might ever read in your lifetime, but it is kind of fun to see the grousing going on over there. In other words, you might want to check it out.
October 3, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they are upset, I'm always tickled to see it.
Schadenfreude baby - it's the breakfast of champions.
October 3, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, dear Tena, you are a woman after my own heart.
October 3, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
This one:
"'In the last three weeks we have gone from a workable winning strategy to being in a losing position. That will not change by hoping for Bradley effects and polling bias.'
Hoping for Bradley effects.
This is the Republican Party."
Made me crack up.
October 3, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was amusing. It must be a rough job, finding gems at a place like RedState.
October 3, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that McWar has very few options left. He is cornered. He has lost credibility. So he either goes nuclear, playing the race card...and this is proven a losing strategy...
or he goes nuclear and play the race...
October 3, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this point, he'll try anything that hasn't been tried or overplayed before.
October 3, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I were Obama's folks, I'd make sure McCain is patted down for weapons before the next debate.
And don't let him near anything Obama's drinking.
October 3, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
October 3, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm going to Colorado for four days before and including election day. I can't stand to spend the last days of this campaign in Utah.
One month to go! Things are looking good as long as we all keep doing what we can.
October 3, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not ready to call this for Obama until 10pm nov 4. The GOP is still the GOP, and Obama is still Black.
I will believe it when i see it. Obviously i'm thrilled with the polls though.
October 3, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you. I'm elated by the recent polls too, but the GOP is still the GOP. For risk of sounding like a one-note Johnny, I'm not celebrating at all until we close this thing on November 4. There are still too many challenges ahead such as voter suppression, October Surprises, etc. etc. Let's keep vigilant and keep pushing, contributing, volunteering, talking, fighting the media cycle every day, and writing letters to the ed. The larger the victory the sweeter the beer, and the more we can get done in 2009!
October 3, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I had to stop there - too much schadenfreude - I'm stuffed.
;)
October 3, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, that was the very most surreal comment I read on that blog. I have grown so accustomed to thinking of the Republicans a devious geniuses who manage again and again to play Lucy to our (democratic) Charlie Brown that it shocked me to realize that there are republicans who think the same thing about us. Gosh, I almost feel important for knowing that.
October 3, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I once visited Redstate and I saw so much faux reality that I couldn't ever go back.
Real "I reject your reality and substitute my own" stuff.
Sort of like McCain's answers to the Iowa interview.
October 3, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
They get that through long practice dismantling the constitution by reading it backwards and inside out.
I'm not kidding -I didn't realize that anyone could do what they do with statutes and the constitution and actually make it work for 5 minutes. They managed almost 12 years - but not really. People shook off the hypnotic trance of 9-11 right after the '04 election.
That election scared most people I've run into.
October 3, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I frightened every dove in the Taos Valley when I read that.
October 3, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I liked that word choice, "invaded." Evidently the fellow who wrote that comment owns the neighborhood, you see, and those other homeowners with the temerity to vote democratic are trespassing.
October 3, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too f'n funny folks.
October 3, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd really like to believe that this is a done deal, and there's lots of reasons to think that might be true. But national polls are not one of them. National polls only do two things:
1) Make the supporters of the leader feel good. No question, I love seeing Obama's average national support number creeping closer and closer to 50%.
2) Create a general impression in the media and public of which candidate is winning. That actually matters somewhat if it causes the media to stop calling the race "close".
But what really matters at this point is states. Awesome news that McCain is pulling out of MI, but that also means he will be doubling down on red states. The red state battlegrounds are all still very close and things could be a lot tougher for Obama to move here on out.
Don't get me wrong, I like where Obama is right now and the direction things are going. But it is always easier to defend that to capture, so we will have to work extra hard to keep those numbers in VA, CO, FL, OH, MO, IN, and NC moving in Obama's direction.
No time for rest or complacency.
October 3, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bah Humbug. GOTV is all that counts now. Obama's persuaded people, now he needs to motivate them.
October 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
たぶんあなたとお部屋テナか何かを得る必要があります
October 3, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
True, I've notice here in ABQ NM in the past week there's been nothing but McCain attack ads and not a squeak from Obama. Gotta keep the momentum going people!
October 3, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really want to assure that nasty Republicans Senators up this year [e.g., Dole-NC; Sununu-NH; Collins-ME; Coleman-MN; Cornyn-TX; Smith-OR; Stevens-AK and others] are swept out,/b> like the trash that they are.
Obama is going to need a Congress full of "real" Democrats [on the House side too] to pass the legislation and approve the judges needed to reverse our national Titanic.
October 3, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Every Democrat who spoke today following the vote gave Obama credit for helping to get this very unpopular bailout bill passed. It's my guess McCain will wash his hands of the whole deal and hit Obama hard for screwing the American public. After all, he's already show his skills as a flip-flopper. We'll see how the press plays it, but if Obama faces a leadership moment, this is it. It's my guess he'll spend from now until November defending his part in this and trying to sell the American public on a bill that everyone really hates.
It probably wasn't the best idea to mention Obama's name so much today. I really don't think he wants to have this one pinned on him.
October 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
eh- too late, too stupid - nobody buys it for one overwhelming reason - The Failure of Our Economy Belongs Wholly to the Repugs. They had the government for the last 12, 13 years.
It's their fault we had to bail anyone out.
October 3, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not according to O'Reilly. Have you seen the interview with Barney Frank? Amazing.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/02/frank-demolishes-oreilly_n_131445.html
October 3, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Palin found out about her ticket pulling out of Michigan when she read the paper this morning. Well I guess it's understandable because she has to read ALL of 'em, MOST of 'em, whatever is put in front of her . .
October 3, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has won over the Kerry supporters. I don't see Wisconsin, Minnesota or Pennsylvania going for McCain. New Mexico and Iowa are Bush states that McCain has already lost. Which means that Obama just needs to win Ohio or Florida or Missouri or Colorado or Virginia or North Carolina or Indiana or two out of Nevada, Montana, and West Virginia. And it is quite possible that he wins each of these states!
The McCain campaign is in deep, deep trouble. Palin's performance last night might have set the floor for McCain but may have also limited his ceiling. He has a lot of states to defend; in many of which he is behind. With limited time he'll need to do some desperate things which will in turn lead to losing more independents. He has run a poor campaign and he is a poor candidate.
October 3, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush just pinned it on the Democrats. He read off a list of Democrats who helped get this passed, and mentioned the names of ZERO Republicans. I think the Republicans are hoping the public turns on the Democrats for helping to pass this bill. This could end up being a very bad day for the Democratic Party.
One thing that really concerns me: our Party and the least popular president in history are now aligned on an issue that the public hates.
October 3, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
They hate it but maybe understand that it has to be done? Either way, it's a bitter pill that leaves me disgusted.
October 3, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are still two more debates. I hope Obama will do as good a job as Biden did last night.
October 3, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just donated another $50.00 to Barack Obama...and bought a yard sign and a long sleeved tshirt to go with my sweatshirt and 2 short sleeved tshirts.
Obama/Biden '08/'12
October 3, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the reminder. I just donated.
October 3, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be happier when Obama breaks 52-54% steadily and J-mac sits below 40%. That's close to a Diebold/Jeb/SCOTUS proof majority. But honestly it wouldn't surprise me if they tried the ol' switcheroo anyway. Hey, they got away with it at least twice that we know of. Now is the time to pound em hard sans the reach around. Incidently, did anyone else catch Palin's flub last night..."John McCain has already tapped me!"
October 3, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I did catch that odd line, and, sadly enough, all I could think of was how it seemed to work in with another phrasing she couldn't help but share with us last night: "drill, baby, drill". (I believe Biden said "drill, drill, drill" in hopes that he would be corrected with the actual, pathetic line by Palin.)
October 3, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Made another $50 donation yesterday. Hosted a debate party last night with about 30 people. Emailed about 400 friends to donate to http://my.barackobama.com fundraising page and am starting to see the donations coming in.
Every little bit helps right?
We also need to support the DSCC (http://www.dscc.org) and individual senate races. There are between 6-10 winnable senate seats in Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon, Virginia and even North Carolina.
October 3, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just saw this on NYT
I wonder if McCain or Palin has any good answers to explain this?
October 3, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just last night, McWar was saying thaht bush should veto the bill. It was on Countdown.
I am not worried at all. McWar is cornered. He was for the bill. He once said he WAS THE ONE who was going to RESCUE the bill, and he lost total credibility...
So if he goes against this bill, and blame Barrack, it would backfire...
October 3, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone notice that Obama is up in North Carolina by 2 in the latest poll today. North...Freaking...Carolina!
October 3, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
It gets even worst
October 3, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I think people will come away thinking a little more of Palin but less of the McCain/Palin ticket. But even though Biden won the debate I don't expect it to be noticably reflected in the polls.
It looks like America has just about decided who they want as the next President. The air is just about completely gone out of the GOP ballon.
October 3, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still can't believe anyone could think that Palin did a great job. It speaks volumes about how low expectations really were for her. Let's face it, even Dan Quayle could get through a debate.
Some have even suggested that Tina Fey will be able to take this week off at SNL. Sorry, but I think Palin just gave her plenty of ammunition to use. She may not have gotten lost in more word salad- reading from notes tends to help avoid that- but she provided a ton of "folksy" nonsense.
Remember how funny it was when Tina Fey winked at the camera on SNL? Who would've thought that Palin would actually validate that caricature during a vice-presidential debate? The cutesy schtick was an absolute farce. Not exactly what you want to see during a serious economic crisis. Hopefully, Fey will lampoon all that "doggone" notecard reading on tomorrow's show.
And someone should really make a video montage of all the times Palin used the term, "Maverick".
October 3, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
No kidding; it was pretty depressing hear the post-debate analysis on the "ultra-liberal" NPR saying that Palin had demonstrated to those disturbed by her interviews that she is, in fact, qualified to be President. Apparently, being able to put together coherent sentences for 90 minutes is qualification enough now.
October 3, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno about NPR sometimes. I wonder if they were infiltrated by loyal Bushies like everything else in DC was.
October 3, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, they were.
Bush put a bunch of Republican toadies on the NPR board, and they put through a bunch of actions [like giving Tucker Carlson a show, for a while] that decimated the independent NPR "brand."
The place is officially [or offally] hopeless.
October 3, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin's gotten so much attention over the last few weeks that many Americans may feel they know more about her than Joe Biden. Joe was brilliant in the debate, and so I think he, and Obama, benefited a lot more from it. Polls seem to agree.
October 3, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
October 3, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
That CNN poll said it all, 84% of people thought she did better than expected, HOWEVER, a majority STILL thinks she isn't ready for the job.
October 3, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm still really worried about MN and WI. What is going on in 'Sota? This is ridiculous. I'm looking at you, racist, low information white voters.
We gotta close it out, GoBama: http://fiturl.com/0jN
October 3, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is why MSM pisses me off, I live in NY and I picked up the NY post to see what they said about the debate and Biden ISN'T EVEN ON THE COVER. It was like Palin debated a ghost.
October 3, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope McCain pulls his ads and staff from PA, because the keystone state is way out of his reach.
October 3, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink