Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.

THIS

As goes West Virginia, so goes the nation.

Fake America Leads Real America.

Obama clinging to massive electoral lead.

This is cause for celebration! Obama should go out and spend $150,000 on clothes.

"Come out, West Virginia, with your hands up! We've got you almost surroounded!"

"You'll get this cold clay jug humorously marked with three large XXXs when you pry it from my cold, dead hands!"

These state polls are just more evidence that it's time to ignore all but a few national polls. Why? Because more than ever they are all over the place. Pew has Obama up 14. Fox has him up 9. Rasmussen has him up by 6. Gallup, depending on which model you like, has him up by 5, 8, or 9. ARG has him up 5. Zogby probably has the tightest party ID gap (Dems +2) but shows Obama up 10. IBD/TIPP has Obama up by 4 but also has him losing 18-24-year olds to McCain by 10pts, 53-43, and suburban voters by 20, 53-33.(????????) At the same time, they have Obama winning Dems 87-5, McCain winning Republicans 84-7, and Obama winning indies, 42-38....but he's still only up by 4pts? Battleground has him up 2. And an AP poll just released today has him up by just 1pt. 1pt!

Is Obama up by 14? Nope, not a chance. Is he only up by 1 or 2pts? No way.

Personally, I watch three tracking polls - mostly because they have the most stability - Rasmussen, Gallup, and R2K. Gallup can have some strange swings but, overall, they results are pretty stable. And I like them even more now that they've got three models going. Rasmussen probably nails party ID the closest (a little under a 7pt Dem advantage) but his likely voter model may be a bit dated. R2K probably overcounts the Dem advantage at +9 but they've stuck with that spread since they started. And you know, Dems could have a +9 advantage in a year like this.

All three of my preferred tracking polls only include the last three days. Battleground includes the past 5 but doesn't poll on weekends. (???) Hotline switches their party ID seemingly every day. (yesterday, that had the Dems at only +2)

So, looking at these three polls, at worst Obama is up by 5 (50-45, Gallup LVI) and at best he's up by 10 (5i-41, R2K). In all of them, he's at or above 50. Rasmussen's 51-46 split probably is where the race it at right now. Give McCain 1.5% of the undecideds, Obama .5%, and the other 1% to third-parties, and you get an election day popular vote result of Obama 51.5, McCain 47.5, Other 1. Sounds about right.

OT, but I was just reading about Palin's interview with James Dobson...she refers to the election being "in God's hands", and encourages "prayer warriors" to pray for the desired outcome. Maybe she's channelling Marilyn Hickey, the most endearing psycho of the religious-right incoheriat...or maybe she's validating the insightful speculation of Frances FitzGerald, in her recent New York Review of Books entry:

"Out of church, (Palin) may be able to take a purely naturalistic view of international conflicts. Still, she has spend much more time in church than she has studying foreign policy, and the habit of mind these churches instill has little to do with diplomacy or peacemaking."

can we all just co-sign that Ohio sucks and it might as well caryy a confederate flag? I mean, seriously. Chainsaw that state and just drop it down in between Mississippi and Alabama and be done with it.

(but keep the rivalvry with Michigan. That's always fun...or at least it was until four years ago)

Can we all just co-sign that Ohio sucks and it might as well carry a Confederate flag? I mean, seriously. Chainsaw that state along the borders, pick it up and just drop it down in between Mississippi and Alabama and be done with it.

(but keep the rivalry with Michigan. That's always fun...or at least it was until four years ago)

America’s Next President

Good by George and Richard. We will certainly miss you both a great deal, given the deep understanding and sound judgment you demonstrated in committing our country to an invasion and a very expensive protracted war in Iraq. And many thanks also for keeping a close regulatory eye on Wall Street and our mortgage lending and banking system during your 8 year watch. Sorry Bill and Hillary. Of course we really wanted to have you back again so that Bill could have another shot at some more action with interns in the oval office; and we will certainly miss not being able to hear all the details of such encounters. Too bad John and Sarah. We will always be deeply grateful to you, John, for wisely putting the needs of our country above petty politics in choosing your running mate. But, Sarah, unfortunately it looks like we may never get a chance to fulfill our wildest dream of someday having President Palin lead the free world. On the other hand Barack Obama isn’t all that much, is he? He is merely an intelligent, articulate, and insightful 47 year old biracial man, a top of his class graduate of Harvard Law School and president of its Law Review, a former instructor in constitutional law for 12 years at the University of Chicago Law School, a 3 term Illinois State Senator and US Senator for the past 4 years, a Washington outsider with fresh ideas who wants to make significant changes in Washington. Come to think of it. Welcome Barack Obama!