Obama Over 50% In The Poll Of Tracking Polls
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today. With one new day of post-VP debate data within these three-day tracking polls, Barack Obama's lead is just getting wider:
• Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 48%-42% Obama lead yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 52, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-40% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.4%-42.7%, even wider than his lead yesterday of 49.9%-42.5%. And more importantly, Obama is now over the 50% mark.
Go BO, America has your back.
October 4, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess Palin's performance at the debate didn't have impact.
October 4, 2008 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course it had an impact! If it hadn't, McCain's numbers would still be where they were last week.
October 4, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not quite sure how to take your comment. Snark? The tracking polls are looking at the last three days, only one of which is including the debate. McCain's numbers dip just a tad as compared to the poll average just before this one. Therefore, no impact by Palin. Which means McCain is in the same screwed position he was before the debate.
October 4, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, there's still no national representative poll about the VP debate, after those early snap polls of undecideds?
(No, I'm almost sure what results would look like, it's just that some MSM idiots like Buchanan won't shut their mouth until they see real polls).
October 4, 2008 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
according to rasmussen's site, they had one in the field, and it's available to subscribers of their site right now; for those who aren't subscribers, they were supposed to release it late today. i'm not a subscriber, so i don't know what it says, and as far as i knew a couple hours ago, they hadn't released it.
October 4, 2008 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/45_say_biden_won_debate_37_say_palin
Biden won, of course.
It mainly broke among party lines but Biden was stronger.
October 4, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks nova and Musgrove. Hopefully other pollers release their results soon so those idiots will look like idiots as they are.
October 4, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
as for ifill, i thought she was terrible. much of that is because the mccain campaign bullied the commission into shortening the time frames for answers and exchange between the candidates, but she was pretty horrible, i thought.
October 4, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well she didn't act as a monitor.
October 4, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, Ifill was a disappointment. I guess I'm only a wee bit surprised.
Acting like a monitor probably isn't necessary. Most viewers can tell that a candidate did or didn't answer a question. A gentle observation after the fact that the Q wasn't answered is probably enough.
It did seem to me like she screwed up some of the questioning -- order of answering, time for back-and-forth, etc.
October 5, 2008 12:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I wish she had pressed Palin to answer the questions asked -- it was not Joe's job to call on her for not answering questions (e.g., deregulatino). Of course, if Gwen had gone any further than that, the McCain campaign would have jumped on and whined forever, but Palin wouldn't have "answer[ed] the questions the way you or the moderator like" anyway.
October 4, 2008 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ifill is always terrible as a debate monitor. Do you not remember 2004?
October 5, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you want to see awful debate moderating, wait until this week when Tom Brokaw -- personal friend of McCain's and "mediator" between the McCain camp and the media -- hits the chair.
Oh, and Browkaw was the one who convinced NBC to kick Olbermann & Matthews off primary/election night coverage for MSNBC.
He is a complete tool.
October 5, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
And now the Obama campaign is going proactive on McCain's negative ads:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14283.html
October 4, 2008 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
BOOYAH!
so now, even if they don't run the ads, it doesn't make obama look foolish, because palin was running her mouth (i'm thinking here about mccain's campaign having mispredicted (haha, i feel like GWB using a word like that) what they thought obama was going to do last week. if they do run the ads, people will see it for what it is: trying to cut and run from the economy.
as they say on the intertoobz, PWNT
October 4, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh. Every time I think I know how smart this campaign is they prove they're even smarter, and quicker on the uptake, than that.
October 4, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good call! Obama is gonna brand McCain as erratic when there's a crisis. Fighting fire with fire! Obama is lean and gettin' mean!
October 4, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pitbull is now campaigning in Nebraska, and Obama is playing defense...
The McWar campaign is so out of reality and so delusional...
October 4, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah and McScum was in IOWA and full of shit...
October 4, 2008 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biden won by 45% to 37% to pitbull according to Rasmussen...
October 4, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
SNL doing a pretty funny skit on the debate.
October 4, 2008 11:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin made considerably less money than rival Sen. Joe Biden, but the Palin family gave more to charity in the last two years than Biden has in the last eight combined, according to Palin’s tax records released Friday afternoon. Palin, the running mate of presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), and her husband Todd reported meager earnings from 2006 and 2007, at least by presidential-politics standards. In 2006, the Palins paid $11,944 in taxes on $127,869 in income. In 2007, they paid $24,738 on $166,080.
But in 2006, they donated $4,880 to charity, and in 2007, they donated $3,325.
By contrast, Biden (D-Del.), Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s running mate, has donated a total of $3,690 since 1998 despite his higher Senate salary, according to an analysis posted by National Review.
Biden is not as cheap as the Oilbama, who voted for the Bush Cheney Energy Bill, “the Community Organizer for the Poor” and his wife Michelle donated less than 1% to charity. This is another stark difference between the character and substance of Oilbama Vs. McCain.
Oilbama and his American hating racist wife talk about helping the poor but use a slumlord, Rezco, to finance their expensive home in Suburbia and stiff the poor when asked to donate to charity, while McCain served his country with Military service.
October 4, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whats the point of trolling, you know Obama is going to win.
October 4, 2008 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably gave a big chunk to the Alaska Independence Party!
October 4, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah? That you? Didn't know you had time to troll. How's the witch doctor?
I've got a new nickname for you. How about Bozo the Palin? Like it? I don't care.
Keep looking for Putin's head.
October 4, 2008 11:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is great news!!! For McPalin!!!
October 5, 2008 6:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent points! That reminds me to send a note to Miserable W. Failure thanking him for opening the oval office doors to a black man. ...and not just any black man, mind you, but the most liberal pinko commie crypto-Muslim ever elected to congress.
...poor Dubya, they don't call him Turd Midas for nothin',
LK
October 4, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have I told you yet how much I love that avatar? It rocks!
October 5, 2008 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
He invented the turd burger!
October 5, 2008 1:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
this reminds me of when the other team was getting its ass kicked and either its players or its fans kept talking shit. know what we chanted?
SCORE-BOARD! SCORE-BOARD! SCORE-BOARD!
October 5, 2008 12:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama house isn't in suburbia. Kind of undermines your credibility when you can't get your facts straight.
October 5, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
why was she in Texas the other day, California, and Nebraska, while McCain was in Iowa? Arent those states almost pretty well detirmined?
The McCain campaign is a trainwreck and Im loving it.
October 4, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
well Obama is competitive in Omaha county, so McWar has to defend that one...
Maybe the McWar campaign is broke...and they need her to raise money for the RNC
October 4, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm about the most pessimistic reader you'll find on this board, but--knock on serious wood--I can smell victory. (It smells like napalm in the morning, for those out of the know.) I'm not going to skip my volunteer GOTV training tomomrrow, but damn, I can smell it, I can taste it. (Again, K-on-wd.)
Robert
October 4, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin is raising money in Texas and California folks. I have a feeling that they're running tight on money, or project they will be. She can raise money for the RNC, and then the RNC can use that money to run ads and fund GOTV campaigns for the McCain Camp.
October 5, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
> they're running tight on money...
That may well be the case, at least in a relative sense. Overall Obama has been outspending McCain in most of the battlegrounds. The Hill suggests that's why they pulled out of Michigan.
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/public-funding-limits-pushed-mccain-out-of-michigan-2008-10-04.html
October 5, 2008 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
One data point supporting BigO's decision to forgo public financing.
I had a feeling that'd be a big win, but with no data to back it up, I figgered I'd keep it zipped for a while :-)
October 5, 2008 12:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
They have to be running short on money. When was the last time Republicans had to defend Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina and Colorado? They usually had the luxury of picking blue states to attack in addition to the perennial battleground states of PA, OH and FL--though PA is looking like it's not much of a battleground.
I'm going to send Obama a few more dollars. He needs it now, not next month.
October 5, 2008 12:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
John Sidney McCain is completely unfit to be president.
I just finally finished the Rolling Stone article - Jesus god!
October 5, 2008 12:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just started in on it...
I remember linking a few months back to an article in an AZ newspaper about what a real douchebag McSame is and has been his whole career. I think I'll do a little digging for it, but I'm kinda pessimistic about finding it.
October 5, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is it, right?
http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/2008-08-07/news/postmodern-mccain-the-john-mccain-some-arizonans-know-and-loathe/1
October 5, 2008 1:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes! THANK YOU very much!
Here's a link to a single-page printable version of that nine-page article: Postmodern John McCain: the presidential candidate some Arizonans know and loathe
The RS article is long but entertaining, too. But in case I don't have time to make it all the way through, the above article told me all I need to know about that scumbag.
October 5, 2008 3:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
HusseinTenaX,
I too read the Rolling Stones article, its epic and potentially damaging to McCain. We should use this article as preemptive material against McCain.
October 5, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's worse than Commander CooCoo Bananas!
October 5, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tena why do you hate POWs and GOD loving Nymphomaniac.
what did they do to you.
in my mind Sarah gives a great rim-job and that is just fine, she can learn the other things in due time, just ask the editor of NR.
McCain knows how to win wars by losing them and that is what a hero does, so just back off
October 5, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sheila Broflovski: What's a rimjob?
October 5, 2008 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
"What the heck is a rim job?" I think is the quote.
October 5, 2008 1:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're probably right. I shoulda double-checked. Damn Alzheimers! :-)
October 5, 2008 1:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
She can finger a flute!
that was her talent for Miss whatecer!
October 5, 2008 1:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just stopped off for a bit at No Quarter for some late night entertainment and man, those people are freakin' out. . .
October 5, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
O post some of their shit - be a pal. I love schadenfreude right before bed - it's my favorite bedtime snack.
October 5, 2008 1:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
TenX go read the open thread comments. They are funny and they are freaking.
Here is one:
Watching the “Camp Obama” video… it’s not too far a stretch to imagine Obama’s well armed civilian militia… as equally armed as our military… in armored vehicles coming down our streets using automatic weapons to intimidate and shake down residents just as “community organizer” groups have used the legal system to intimidate and shake down financial institutions.
Another:
Plus, a good chunk of those 18 million Hillary supporters will vote for McCain. Plus, we are very busy converting our friends and families as well.
Last one:
My country has given up on ME. My father was an 82nd Airborne Paratrooper in WWII fighting for our freedom and world peace. He is dead. I look at his picture every single day and wonder what he would think of America and Obama. It’s not pretty. He would cry like I do that this country has let someone so vile near the White House. We have lost our pride. Yes, I will move. Why? Because the thought of wearing a Burka and speaking Arabic is a lot less appealing than the alternative and, come on let’s be honest, it’s real possibility with this idiot.
October 5, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I also served with the All Americans (82nd ABN 1/508) and appreciate your fathers service and resolve.
Airborne!
October 5, 2008 2:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
are these pretending or are they serious.
you mean to tell me that there are people who know how to use a computer people who have went to school and still think in that one dimensional way.
Obama's paternal grandfather a Kenyan Muslim so Obama must be a Muslim too, but but Obama's maternal grandfather is white and christian does that mean that he is christian too.
you see the Muslim thing is just a cover for racism.
why are people so dumb; when they can afford it
October 5, 2008 3:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, guess they're not too happy about the magical whitey tape's release being delayed. I guess the GOP hit machine wanted to release it later in the year to get Oscar buzz.
October 5, 2008 1:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Michelle Obama smear?
They go for her and I think we'll see Obama get mad - finally.
I do.
October 5, 2008 1:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, Ok. B BUT ISN'T THIS:
GOOD NEWS!
October 5, 2008 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
OT: the cubs lost. again. jesus fucking CHRIST.
October 5, 2008 1:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good night - my cat is telling me it's time to go to bed.
October 5, 2008 1:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Star Tribune Minnesota Poll
Obama 55 McCain 37
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/30470234.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUr
October 5, 2008 1:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's cause for a drink. And everyone should make an effort to read the Rolling Stone piece. It's devastating.
October 5, 2008 1:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Star Tribune poll also has Franken up by 10 points. Based on looking at other recent poles in MN for Senate, this one is an outlier and I take the +10 Obama figure from Star-Tribune in that context. I'll wait for confirming data from other services.
October 5, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
this is just more good news anyone else smelling landslide I am
I mean these polls dont even count the millions of young people who have registed to vote for obama as they only work on 2004 data for these polls would love on that had the new voters in
October 5, 2008 1:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
They also don't properly pick up the ground work that the Obama people have done such a fabulous job at. Palin will boost the enthusiasm of Talibangelicals and flakes/nut cases of various stripes, but not like Obama's organization will drive turnout.
October 5, 2008 2:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a kool-aid chugging Dem. who says the debate removed all doubt about the Moose Queen:
"The VP is no longer an issue," said Democrat Tad Devine." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/03/AR2008100300074_2.html?sid=ST2008100202256&s_pos=
On Google, you can find various Republican-oriented quotes from the "Democratic Strategist" going months back. It must have been vapid, meaningless quotes that convinced him this time, such as: "I think we need a little bit of reality from Wasilla Main Street there, brought to Washington, D.C."
Jim Hoagland didn't agree, calling Palin an "albatross." concluding unlike the "Democrat," that Palin's debate "did little to dispel the serious doubts about her readiness to be vice president, much less president." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/03/AR2008100303307.html
October 5, 2008 3:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a kool-aid chugging Dem. who says the debate removed all doubt about the Moose Queen:
"The VP is no longer an issue," said Democrat Tad Devine." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/03/AR2008100300074_2.html?sid=ST2008100202256&s_pos=
On Google, you can find various Republican-oriented quotes from the "Democratic Strategist" going months back. It must have been vapid, meaningless quotes that convinced him this time, such as: "I think we need a little bit of reality from Wasilla Main Street there, brought to Washington, D.C."
Jim Hoagland didn't agree, calling Palin an "albatross." concluding unlike the "Democrat," that Palin's debate "did little to dispel the serious doubts about her readiness to be vice president, much less president." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/03/AR2008100303307.html
October 5, 2008 3:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
what if god was a pollster
October 5, 2008 7:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
This morning, Star Tribune Minnesota Poll has Obama leading by 18%: Obama 55% to McCain 37%.
The poll was conducted last week among 1,084 likely voters.
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/30470234.html?elr=KArksi8cyaiUHK:uUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU
October 5, 2008 7:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Am I the only one that realizes this is happening is a span of 2 weeks. They don't joke when they say people make up their mind by October. This is the type of election 100s of books will be written about.
October 5, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also, a new Columbus Dispatch poll has Obama up by 7 points in Ohio.
The newspaper's poll was conducted Sept. 24-Oct. 3 by mail among 2,262 likely Ohio voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
A poll done by the Dispatch in the middle of August suggested McCain had a 42 percent to 41 percent lead. Obama's support among Ohio Democrats has increased 10 percent since then, and he now has the backing of two-thirds of those who voted for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the March 4th primary.
In the August poll, just half of Clinton's supporters said they were behind Obama.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5juXNS8XQlCmb1punqTKdkYrUVoRgD93K7KFG0
San Francisco Chronicle speculates: Is Colin Powell endorsing Obama this week?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/05/BA8N13AVK0.DTL
October 5, 2008 8:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
People sure do make up their minds in October! We saw both candidates in action in real time during the recent and ongoing economic crisis and "bailout" business and now have some real experience with each candidate on which to base a decision. I think a lot of people got over the fear or uneasiness with Obama due to that. So we have the economic crisis favoring Dems plus Obama's typically thoughtful, steady performance, both contributing to what could be a decisive break toward Obama. Here's hoping! Me,I'm still headed for Nevada soon to campaign among strangers.
October 5, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I meant this to be a new post. Sorry.
October 5, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is a huge sampling number.
October 5, 2008 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
check out 538 it is the worst pollster in the world.
so bad that KO should put it on his list
October 5, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
O is playing jujitsu by PREEMPTING Mac's new attacks. Mac WILL be playing right into his hands and continue to be portrayed as erratic in a crisis.
October 5, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
And McWar is still going to Iowa this week, LOL. HE STILL DOES NOT GET IT...
Here is the new Obama ad, so good...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/05/obama-ad-responds-to-comi_n_131982.html
October 5, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's face it, there's simply no room in this modern political world for a dinosaur and his neanderthal woman.
October 5, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink