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Obama Keeps Big Lead In Tracking Polls

Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today. With two days of post-VP debate data within these three-day tracking polls, Barack Obama's is maintaining his big lead over John McCain:

Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead yesterday.

Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead yesterday.

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, unchanged from lead yesterday.

Research 2000: Obama 52, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.4%-42.7% -- identical to his lead from yesterday. Note that Obama is not only up by nearly eight points, but is over the 50% mark.


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South of 45% is the place for McCain & Co.

Politico is reporting that BO is going to bring up McCain's involvement in the Keaton Five scandal on Monday.

I guess this is what BO meant when he said "if they bring a knife to the fight he will bring a gun"
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14302.html

Well Obama has real ammo and McCain is shooting blanks.

I really believe Obama should just let his surrogates stick with the Keating 5 card. He needs to stay above the fray and attack the Republicans for trying to change the narrative because they have nothing to run on.

If one or two banks fail between now and Nov 4th it put the McCain smears on hold. The public aint in no mood for McCain's smears.

doh! I linked the same thing below. I guess I'm too slow.

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Companion web site:

http://keatingeconomics.com/

Any journalist that actually feels like studying up on K5 will get all he needs right there.

This is a great move. Plouffe, Axelrod and Obama are clearly ready for this. McCain's going to regret letting Palin make the 'palling with terrorists' charge. I mean really regret it.

It will shred the 'Maverick' myth, once and for all.

It seems the numbers are set in place with Obama at 48-52 and McCain 40-45. Its over, many Republicans are already admitting to it. McCain's last attempt to gain ground is to smear Obama, but given the current situation America is in right now and given how Obama's campaign fights back on these attacks so easily it just doesn't seem McCain stands any chance at this point.

Nice.

Interesting article on Politico now. Obama has created a new McCain Keating website. I'm surprised they've done this to be honest.

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I'm not surprised in the least.

This is the endgame. The Obama campaign knew this was coming, and they've been waiting for it to happen.

They sure haven't been caught flat-footed. Click the 'News' link on that site. There is so much documentation there.

Keating Five at least has some bearing on the current economic mess, in a round about way. I think Obama is just making sure that he wont be asked about Ayers at the debate without McCain being asked about Keating.

Even more than that, it's a way for the Obama campaign to talk about McCain's dirty laundry and the economic crisis at the same time (deregulation being the common thread between then and now). Very clever.

Since FDR, through 15 presidential elections, a grand total of two Democratic candidates have won a majority of the popular vote: LBJ in his '64 landslide, and Carter just barely in '76 (50.1%).

Can Obama make it three?

They need to have that picture of McCain in the party hat sitting with Keating in the Caribbean I think I saw on here once somewhere on the front page of that web site.

This is a slippery slope Obama has to watch himself on. He can't get tied up in smear wars, because he needs to be about the issues. He really needs to tie McCain and Keating into the current economic mess. I also wonder how this will play with John Glenn, who was at the Springsteen rally today I believe. He's an icon in Ohio and bringing up Keating will sully Glenn again.

Also according to the Keating Five wiki, McCain was A]a bit player and B]the only Republican along with four other Democrats.

According to the wiki, McCain was only added to add a republican to the target so it wasn't seen as partisan. And when McCain was added, the GOP made sure to add Dem hero John Glenn. On the other hand maybe McCain and Glenn were let off easier given their respective hero status.

They're on it -- they are tying it into the issues, using it to highlight the fallout from deregulation.

I agree -- I don't see any smear about it. Keating is factual, and very, very relevant to the issue that dominates this election.

Just put it in the narrative by using surrogates. Then the media will talk about it. Obama doesn't have to mention it himself until absolutely necessary.

I can appreciate your concern, but I don't believe we'll actually ever hear the word "Keating" come out of Obama's mouth, and in politics, let's face it, that's what matters.

Now is the time those surrogates really need to earn their positions in the new administration.

Hey Jonze, couldn't this also be an Obama feint as well? I mean, set up the website, have a few surrogates bring up Charles Keating without Obama ever uttering the man's name - all to get the McCain camp to go ultra negative, even shooting their Jeremiah Wright load. What do you think?

I don't know. I just believe that blowing off the Ayers talk as the nothingness that it is was the better tactic. the Politico article has the McCain Camp spin which is to the effect "Look how rattled Obama is, when Ayers name is brought up he panics and throws Keating out to try and distract away from his terrorist connections". I think this does add more weight to the Ayers smear (even if I completely believe it's utterly ridiculous and have been saying so since it was brought up in the primary debate at Hannity's urging).

Also this is Obama's last big salvo, whereas McCain still has Rev. Wright. Now in the same Politico article it says that Wright is off-limits as a direct edict from McCain, but we all know it's going to be played.

And this is also doing exactly what Obama said he wanted to guard again, he's allowing the McCain Camp to "turn the page" and make the campaign about "associates" and distractions.

My play on this matter would have been to keep doing what Obama was doing, call the McCain Camp out for their tactics and how they wanted to "turn the page" and then keep hitting him on the economy. I guess I'll have to wait until the roll out tomorrow before giving a final opinion, as Keating could be tied into the current economic crisis in a roundabout way. Doing so will be key in my opinion. As of right now though, I wouldn't have "gone there" I would have used surrogates to explain away the Ayers smear, explain that he was 8 years old and only casually knows Ayers, a college professor today, though being on the same program boards. Call it out as a distraction and move on.

I don't think this will lead to Rev. Wright, as that's being saved for the last week of October and will get played for all it's worth leading up to Nov 4th.

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You're way over-thinking this, Jonze.

What makes you think K5 is the last bullet in Obama's gun, anyway? What about this guy?

The co-host of a recent top-dollar fundraiser for Sen. John McCain oversaw the payment of roughly $1.7 million to a Colombian paramilitary group that is today designated a terrorist organization by the United States.

Carl H. Lindner Jr., the billionaire Cincinnati businessman, was CEO of Chiquita Brands International from 1984 to 2001, and remained on the company's board of directors until May 2002. Beginning under his tenure, Chiquita executives paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (known by the Spanish acronym AUC), which is described by George Washington University's National Security Archive as an "illegal right-wing anti-guerrilla group tied to many of the country's most notorious civilian massacres."

Following a Justice Department indictment last year, Chiquita admitted to illegally funding the paramilitaries and agreed to pay a $25 million fine. Chiquita's payments to the AUC began in 1997 and lasted seven years; roughly half of the funds came after the group was designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the U.S. State Department in 2001.

According to the Justice Department, the payments "were reviewed and approved by senior executives" of Chiquita, who knew by no later than September 2000 "that the AUC was a violent, paramilitary organization."

Late last week, Lindner co-hosted a $25,000-per-person fundraiser for McCain and the Republican Party in the wealthy Indian Hills neighborhood of Cincinnati, Ohio. The event raised about $2 million; Lindner also serves on McCain's Ohio Victory Team.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/02/mccain-fundraiser-oversaw_n_110354.html

I don't think Keating 5 is anywhere nearwhat Plouffe and Axelrod have ready to go. It just depends on how low McCain wants to go.

They would not play this game if they couldn't win it. Take a breath.

I do agree with your assessment that the Keating 5 scandal has to be tied into the current economic situation, which I think it will be. But I sort of disagree with the tactic of just letting the surrogates explaining away Ayers - whats the saying, "If your explaining then you're losing." The combination of on-message republicans and a lazy media could be a toxic cocktail for Obama come November 4th. Remember how silly the Swiftboat guys seemed when they first reared their ugly heads, thinking that any rational person would see through their bullshit? Well, four more years of a Bush presidency later, I personally don't feel as if countering with Keating is the worst thing in the world. What do you think?

BAsed on the stats, right now is when voters cement their decision. What happens a week from the campaign, given Obama's lead at this point, is irrelevant. If Obama can maintain his position for the next couple of weeks, he wins.

Even before this, I noticed that that news talking heads were talking about the "gloves coming off" without differentiating between McCain and Obama. In other words, McCain goes negative, and its reported in a way that it seems both campaigns are going negative. So in some sense, if he's going to be blamed for going negative he might as well do a smart negative campaign (ie Keating 5 - financial mess)

Agreed. On Meet the Press today, Peggy Noonan, David Gregory and Gwen Ifill were already practicing false equivalance (reminding me why I usually don't watch). You expect it from Noonan, but for Gregory and Ifill it's a dereliction of duty. So what the hell... let 'er rip!

I saw it, too. And on other shows as well I kept expecting someone to say, "well, hey, Obama isn't doing this." Oh well, as you say, let it rip.

For any night owls or people out west, HDNet is showing Neil Young's documentary on CSNY's 2006 Freedom of Speech tour at 12:40 a.m. Eastern. That was the tour for Neil's Living With War collection. I caught the early showing this evening, and it was very well done -- moving and motivating.

HERE is a teaser video from the Obama campaign about the new Keating web site they've put together.

Sweet. McCain brought a knife. Obama brings a gun. Of course I mean this in a non-violent direct action sense.

In thinking forward to Tuesday night's debate, I think Obama's on solid ground in this respect: There's no way McCain can bring up the Obama campaign's negative advertising unless he wants millions upon millions of people to hear about the Keating Five. But if the subject turns to negative attacks, all of McCain's on Obama have already been digested by both the media and the public, mostly dismissed, and seem to be having the opposite effect of what the McCain campaign had hoped.

I say let's hear that discussion.

YAY. Local Virginia news mentioned McCain's brother calling Northern Virginia communist country moments ago.

Every little bit helps. Nothing like dissing the voters in order to get their support.

NC Gov. Easley says "Barack" is "Hawaiian for Bubba,"
As a native Hawaiian I will coin a new word in Hawaiian, since we dont have one that fits.
Barack=President

Thank you for that!

Welcome to 20 posts ago. :P Just kidding. Cheers.

I hope McCain got some good naps in while he took this weekend off because Monday will be Keating 5 wall to wall.

The Keating 5 site is going to be awesome. I had a feeling they were going to hold onto this one for October. And it looks like they have a whole documentary coming to the site tomorrow, which is SO much better than a bunch of articles. Man, these guys are good.

Blows one's mind really. It's like watching a pro team take on a division 2 college team.

Clearly, they placed this one in their long-term strategy, took long time to prepare for this and just waited for the right timing. Now this is called STRATEGIC.

So, what you're saying the video is a tactic and not a strategy?

Tactics were putting together the threads, strategy was buying the website!

Because I don't think they would have brought it up where it not for good political contexts established. From the beginning of the general election, the McCain camp keeps trying to frame this whole thing as a personality battle, but (I think) Obama has pushed it back to define it as an issue vs. non-issue personality battle, and in that very process simultaneously attempted to destroy the authenticity of the personality the opponent touts. This Keating thing is one of those things that can help achieve this goal, and now is the best timing.

* Then again, I may be making an ass of myself (English is, strictly speaking, not my first language, so sorry if I'm not making sense).

.... or what kawika says.

:)

BTW, did anyone see the ABC special on Friday night about the candidates and their spouses? The Obama part was fine, but what surprised me is that the program actually covered McLame's first marriage, the auto accident and her injuries. Even showed old footage of his her trying to get around using a cane and mentioned how she kept news of the accident from him so as not to worry him while he was a POW. Also had brief interviews with friends of the couple who spoke glowingly of her. And then they went onto his adultery with Cindy. Yes, it all went by quickly, but at least they covered it. Hope America got a good look at the Maverick.

A Maverick is a bovine without balls!

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Another great oppo site:

http://www.johnmccainrecord.com/

October's gonna get bad for McCain. Real bad.

OK can we agree The POW BS is BS ...I have yet to know a POW that is proud of being a POW.
Being a POW does not of itslf make you a patriot.
Coming through it and making it through your life is good!
Using the POW brand to further your political career besmerches others who have suffered, through imprisonment.
Look, they failed their mission, they waited for help.
Did McCain break out and rally his troops? Hell no. So no more war hero Kukai!

kukai= feces in hawaiian

An interesting thing about coverage of the Keating 5 business is the accompanying photos of McCain at that time. He looks so much younger then compared to now - which brings up age issue from the backdoor: old and way old. Sorry, dude.

We call that MAKULE...It does not translate well, but translate to having a hazy rememberance of events! (In a better light)

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