Obama Campaign: Early Voting Stats Put Us In Strong Position To Win
On a conference call with reporters just now, in which the Obama campaign laid out a cautious but very optimistic picture of the campaign as it now stands, they also announced some amazing figures about early voting -- showing the Dems translating their advantage in voter registrations into a real advantage in banked voted.
In key swing states like Colorado and North Carolina, more registered Democrats are casting early votes than registered Republicans. Democrats now make up 56% of the early vote in North Carolina, compared to 48% back in 2004. Registered Dems now lead the early vote in Colorado with a 39% plurality, compared to a 42% Republican plurality in 2004. And though they started out behind, the Dems are on track to overtake the Republicans in Florida early voting on Monday.
Obama field director Jon Carson anticipated the obvious skeptical argument: That the early voters don't really change anything, because those people would have otherwise showed up on Election Day anyway. Carson then focused on a different number, of "new Democrats" and "new Republicans" -- that is, people who are either newly-registered voters or voted only sporadically in the past.
And the early votes from new Democrats are leading the votes from new Republicans. For example, 40% of all early Democratic votes in Nevada have come from new Dems, versus only 30% of GOP early votes from new Republicans.
"A higher percentage of our vote is new Democrats," Carson said, "and we have a lot more new Democrats."
Shhhhhh.....
October 24, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Will Ashley Todd now be at the top of every story?
October 24, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really hoped that Internet voting would have been possible at this point. I suppose hackers would have managed to muck it up.
October 24, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
On the contrary, I wish we never had electronic voting machines. I don't trust technology for presidential election...Frankenstien all over again...
October 24, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. The 2000 election showed the necessity for paper trails.
October 24, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
We should have registration of voters by civil servants and a requirement that a secretary of state cannot work for a presidential or other campaign thank you KKKatherine Harris and KKKen Blackwell.
We should have voting by mail with paper ballots in every state and those votes counted by civil servants observed by whichever political party wants to watch.
If Canada can do this so can the United States of America.
I have worked with computers since 1966 ( 42 years now ) and I do not trust machines to register votes and count them. Even if you had a paper trail, some person could rig the machine to register a Republican vote but still print out a Democrat vote.
Please answer a poll on health care at http://poll.democratz.org
You can watch Countdown with Keith Olbermann at http://liberal.democratz.org
October 24, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
The touch screen machines we have here in Nevada are great. Of course they print a paper backup. Seems that Nevada has a history of people cheating with machines and we weren't going to let that happen with our elections!
October 24, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't wish for internet voting. We need paper trails! Too many chances to mess things up if you involve technology.
October 24, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've never voted on paper; it's always been either a little lever you flip or a plastic orange button you push.
October 24, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Electronic voting in no way precludes a paper trail. Diebold et al. just prefer to keep things easily adjustable.
October 24, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
the early voters don't really change anything, because those people would have otherwise showed up on Election Day anyway.
Lets keep it in perspective.
October 24, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I mean we seem to be on track but we're not there yet. Not until the night of Nov 4, no matter what the opinion polls say.
October 24, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed.
You know, I'm as nervous as optimistic, as worried as excited -- even if things seem to be going well for us and even if the McScum camp offers something to LMAO about every single day. Very strange feeling. Certainly cannot be relaxed till the 4th.
October 24, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder. You may be right, but see comment down-thread.
October 24, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wha? This was supposed to post below your previous comment. #$^)Q@*
October 24, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
John McCain also puts them in a strong position to win.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 24, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The way things appear to be headed, I'd bet that regardless of the ratios, deep red state down-ticket Republicans are happier to get their votes in the bag now than are the Dems. At least if their current polling looks decent. Another week of attention-grabbing revelations from the McCain-Palin Campaign and associated wingnuts might have otherwise caused some of the early-voting Republicans to switch their vote or stay home.
October 24, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is that Team Obama is trying to push the "situation is grim for McCain" meme, thus creating more gloom and in-fighting amongst the McCain camp.
October 24, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
And to discourage McCain voters from voting.
October 24, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of in-fighting,
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/breaking/s_595030.html
Another laugh.
October 24, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, this is beautiful.
Of course, Ridge had his own liabilities, but were they as large as Palin's? Probably not.
October 24, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will not relax until November 4th when the election is officially called for Barack Obama.
I am a broke teacher who is barely able to pay the mortgage on my small 1940's house.
But I donated another $25.00 today (second time this week). Since the primary began, I have given around $750.00. That is so huge for me... but it will be worth it to have President Obama.
I am also traveling to Indiana to volunteer with other Obama supporters to canvass the area. It will be my first time to ever volunteer for a candidate.
Obama/Biden 2008 & 2012
October 24, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go, Dave!
Thanks!!
October 24, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hear Hear, I agree with you. Until the Republiklan party loses the preisdency and has no filibuster in the senate, I will not act overconfident.
October 24, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The stories about how many hours it is taking to early vote in some districts makes me wonder if turnout will NOT be significantly higher than 2006 simply because the polling stations are inadequate and saturated.
If so it would still benefit the more motivated side on Nov 4, but I would certainly prefer the highest turnout possible.
I think the next election cylcles will focus more and more on early voting / banking votes and on Obama style fundraising / organising.
October 24, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shocking Poll Results: McCain Trails Obama Even Among the KKK!
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=4298
October 24, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
In case you miss it, one of our reader posts is outstanding, best laugh I have had in a long time.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/astral66/2008/10/you-know-its-bad-when-the-russ.php
October 24, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
the early voters don't really change anything
On the contrary, by voting early people are not "in line" on Nov 4. Shorter lines benefit people who are in a hurry or impatient. Thus, by voting early you may ensure that more people, who go to the polls on Nov 4 actually stay and cast a vote.
It's like a twofer. You have a vote in the bag. And another you can more easily lock in at a later time.
October 24, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah, when that line snakes out the door and around the block, and then a rumor starts going through the crowd that there aren't enough ballots. Yeah, early voting's for me.
October 24, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. When I was stateside I always voted early. A few times I got caught unawares and had to go to my voting precincts on election day and put up with being challenged, people trying to get me to change my mind before I entered and who I voted for as I left. Never happens at the early voting places. Peace of mind is a gift to be cherished when it comes to casting a ballot.
October 24, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be poll watching on Nov. 4. I imagine I'll be seeing a lot of Republicans. The precinct I'll be at has a lot of stubborn old farts who don't like breaking with tradition. They love the buzz in the air that comes with election day. This new-fangled emphasis on early voting isn't for them.
October 24, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope there will still be tons of Dems voting on election day. Last thing we need to for all of us to have voted thus giving the repugs the incentive to rally their couch potatoes out to the polls saying we're all spent and victory is theirs for the taking.
October 24, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think all this early voting talk will have the effect of demoralizing the Republicans and reducing their turnout.
Obama supporters are so excited about Obama that we'd vote even if the election was a lock. We all want to be able to tell future generations that, yes, we were there, and we voted for him.
Republicans are just sad and frustrated about the whole state of things right now, and some of that is bound to translate into a "why bother" attitude on election day.
October 24, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this point I feel like I would walk "on my knees" if necessary, just to vote for Obama!
I talked to one mcShame supporter this morning. The person admitted he's "depressed."
October 24, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. If Repubs sense that their vote won't make enough of a difference to get their man elected, then why bother suffering through all those long lines at the polls, surrounded by dedicated Obama supporters who are/have been/will be out in droves.
October 24, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, my sister e-mailed me yesterday saying that she voted early in Florida. She said when it was her turn they had trouble finding her info or verifying her info. Anyways, it was settled and she finally got to vote. As she was leaving.....She was approached by an OBAMA lawyer. He asked her what happened and why she had trouble and he then took down her name and phone number! Proof that Obama is on top of things!!
October 24, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
KEWL!
Good to know Team Obama is on top of possible problems before they mature into fiascoes.
October 24, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin/Bachmann in 2012!
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/greenwald/39922
October 24, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
i wonder how much the enthusiasm gap combined with bad weather could effect the down ticket races.
October 24, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I tend to think highly of Gallup, but you gotta wonder at this description:
Get that? The headline at Gallup is that "equal percentages of Obama and McCain voters vote early" which would sorta, kinda, don't you think, imply equal numbers of each? No Obama advantage, in other words...And then this painfully worded "but there are WAY more Obama supporters to begin with" sentence to set things straight.
That said, I'm as nervous as a cat on a hot tin roof right now. Won't be in any other state until Nov. 5, when I'll either be delirious or deeply depressed.
October 24, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was reading up on Nevada and they said there were more Dems voting early than repugs, but they 'd received were repug absentee ballots and Dems so they were calling the vote counts even.
October 24, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
ooopppss!
were => more
October 24, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I did my part. I just returned from early voting in Charlotte, NC. The line was long, taking slightly over an hour to get through and it was mostly comprised of Obama voters, if I can be allowed to make stereotypical assessments of the people standing in line with me. So, there you go. Obama wins. ;)
October 24, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
By "stereotypical assessments of the people" I assume you mean they were all drinking lattes while waiting to vote.
October 24, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
They wore buttons that said "I'm a proud petless French sympathizing terrorist" and "My terrorist friend Bill Ayers is smarter than your Border Collie". They wore Birkentstocks, to boot.
It's pretty easy to pick out Obama supporters, once you know the signs.
October 24, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, cool! You were there too? lol
October 24, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush votes early for McCain.
Thank you George for that great endorsement. Love, JM
October 24, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously. Thanks, W. And Laura.
October 24, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know who's winning here in Oregon, but I'll tell you who's wasting money. Since I returned my ballot on Wednesday morning, I haven't received any further campaign lit from Jeff Merkley (D). Gordon Smith (R), however, continues to drop trash in my mailbox every day.
I hope he spends it all.
October 24, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, this is nice to read and all, but I really, really wish Obama's campaign would stop saying stuff like this...some will read that as a sign they have no need to vote.
Obama's winning in the polls, yes, but come election day 150 million people will be voting, NOT the 500-100 people contacted per poll.
Every fargin' vote counts! Make yours one of them!!!
October 24, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
This information isn't going to leak out for public consumption, though. They're trying to game the refs this way.
They did this throughout the primaries apparently.
This is inside baseball stuff. You lap it up. Are you going to not vote because of it?
Didn't think so.
October 24, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
New York Times article on O's visit to Hawaii...
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/us/politics/24cnd-obama.html?hp
I love this man.
October 24, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very touching.
Here's hoping she can hold on until January 20th.
October 24, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me, too. It breaks my heart that she may not get to vote for him or see him inaugurated. Anyone who's ever lost someone who helped form them into the person they are knows how sad this is.
I'm just glad he made it out to see her.
October 24, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just when you think McSlime can't sink any lower:
Is there any bottom to the Repuke barrel?
October 24, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
No.
This has been another edition of simple answers to simple questions.
October 24, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
haha!
The thing is, as they get more and more ridiculous I think their effectiveness drops accordingly.
October 24, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. I wonder how many people are listening to the whole thing just for the entertainment value.
October 24, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish the mainstream media would report more on McCain's penchant for "surrender." From Rolling Stone, October 18, 2008:
October 24, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope
October 24, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
On one hand I'm totally with all the people who are warning against getting cocksure with 11 days still to go. Sound advice.
But one thing that is good about these stories is that they create an Inevitability Narrative, just like Rove wove around W in 2000 and Clinton's campaign tried to weave around her in the Dem primary before Obama cracked it wide open. It's certainly building around Obama now and it can be effective in tipping undecideds toward your candidate. Everyone wants to vote for a winner and no one likes a loser. People are strongly influenced by what they perceive to be the opinions of others. It's also discouraging to the other team, and THAT message sure seems to be getting through, given the reports of circular firing squads inside the McCain campaign already.
October 24, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
When you put it like that, I agree with you and, like you said, it's the momentum stories like this build that becomes the positive. And you're right, people see a winner in the polls and vote for that winner - that is more the case for casual voters (i.e. independents) who haven't decided until the very end who they want. Momentum really helps sway them in those situations.
But all positives come with negatives, and the biggest is that "come back to bite you in the ass" scenario. I've had others regular commenters like HyperRevue tell me in the past to stop being a downer, but I see it as merely being very cautious. Being prepared for any scenario.
October 24, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stop being a downer!
October 24, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, in other words you think I'm the Steven Wright of blog commenters? HAHA
October 24, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love the way this thing seems to be playing out. Like the rest of you here, I feel that tug-o-war. On the one side, that sense of momentum building toward victory--a kind of giddy thrill...and on the other side, that dreaded "what if" paranoia. After all, we have been burned before. But overall, I feel pretty good.
Still, now is not the time to pause. Now is the time to seal the deal. Do whatever you can to help the Obama campaign. I will be giving another small donation today--only $25; its what I can afford right now, but everything helps. Donate time to canvas or phonebank if you are able. Whatever....just DO something! Yes we can!!!
October 24, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
What bugs me is how many electronic "vote-flipping" incidents -- always turning Democratic votes into Republican votes -- have already been reported, well in advance of the main crowd voting.
This should be big news, the lead item in every news program and newspaper. The Democratic Party should be screaming about it. The shambling Feds should be prodded into grumbling action. So... why are no sirens sounding? Why this quiet inaction?
Major efforts should be underway to isolate the problem machines, and possibly their entire model lines, from the voting process until their problems are fixed. And a major investigation into the causes should be underway. After all the previous incidents, notably in 2000 and 2004, this is still going on? Why are these machines even being used?
Vote-flipping could make all the polling (and campaigning) irrelevant, pointless, moot. And it is currently happening, not some hypothetical future possibility.
Yet the Obama campaign can blithely overlook that to say, "Early Voting Stats Put Us In Strong Position To Win"?
Gee, folks, do you mean the stats from the informal polling of early voters, or the stats from the actual ballots recorded by the machines?
Only the latter matter on Nov. 4.
October 26, 2008 2:46 AM | Reply | Permalink