New Polls Show Tight Race In Key Swing States
The newest polls show tight races in some key swing states -- with two separate polls confirming a close race in Indiana:
• Indiana: Obama is up 46%-45% in a new Selzer poll, and it's a tied race of 47%-47% according to a Research 2000 poll released last night. Obama was up 47%-44% in a Selzer poll from a month and a half ago, and Research 2000 had Obama up 48%-47% the day before yesterday.
• Colorado: Marist has Obama ahead 51%-45%, with a ±4% margin of error. The key state is that Obama has won the early vote 59%-41%, with a 46%-46% tie among the remaining likely electorate. There is no prior Marist poll for comparison.
• Virginia: Marist has Obama up 51%-47%, with a ±4% margin of error. There is no prior Marist poll for comparison. The polls in Virginia right now are split between those who say Obama is narrowly ahead and those who say he's way ahead.
Also, the new Fox News national poll has Obama ahead 47%-44%, with a ±3% margin of error, a much closer lead than the 49%-40% advantage from a week ago.
I'd be much more concerned about the Fox if--well, if it wasn't Fox, and if Rasmussen and Gallup weren't looking steady with some improvement. Plus Ben Smith reports that NY Times/CBS will show Obama up by 11 later today. Good enough for Drudge, though, I'll bet.
October 30, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fox changed the partisan weighting on their poll.
October 30, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Fox poll?
Laughing my ass off!
October 30, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if Fox is intentionally narrowing their poll results to show a McCain comeback? Just saying...
October 30, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
As Kooky Palin would say:
You betcha!
October 30, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
They are- they dropped the party ID from Dem +6-7 from their last poll to Dem+1.6 in this one.
It's a complete joke
October 30, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, not sure what to make of that. Ben Smith is saying that tonith's CBS-NYT poll has Obama up 11. That's not exactly the tightening the GOP is trying to spin.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 30, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
"the" swing states Eric? Or "some" swing states? Analysis? Anything?
October 30, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
All this tightening of the race is to be expected.
I imagine we'll see a 3 - 4 pt Obama lead heading into the polls, with 2 - 3 pt leads in key swing states.
Even if 3 of the 4 crucial states go to McCain, just one of those to Obama pretty much gives him the presidency.
And my glass of beer is totally half full.
October 30, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say it's about 54% full.
October 30, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's now a 6-7 point lead instead of a (probably unsustainable) 8-9 point lead. No biggie.
I'm convinced last night's informercial will stem (and probably turn) the tide back to Obama ebough to get him through election day.
October 30, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
We debunked that Fox poll in another thread. They just changed the party weighting to get a different result.
VA is worrying me a touch. I want to see Obama up by double digits in all polls there.
IN (my state) is going to come down to GOTV. The governor's race is not close (sadly), but I am hopeful the upside to that will be to lull conservatives into staying home. This is a conservative state but I don't sense much enthusiasm for Mccain.
October 30, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
IN looks weird to me. Right next to it is IL, where it is possible for Democrats to get elected.
October 30, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Again Erik, you forgot to mention the following polls:
North Carolina: Obama 52: McWar 46
Nevada: Obama 51 - McWar 44
Pennsylvania:Obama55% - McWar 43
Again, Erik, if you were spending some time to analyze a poll
and read the internals, you will notice that the Fox Poll is biased and has been debunked already.
The sample uses shows a 2% difference between Dems ID and Repubs ID.
October 30, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks you!
October 30, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you guys haven't noticed, I think he's doing his best to stem complacency. Not that I think that matters for TPM readers.
October 30, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry to disagree but this ultra-drama approach has been the case the whole year.
October 30, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Completely agree.
John
October 30, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this point I'm not even sure if Eric is a real person. I mean, look at his bio: it's got a picture of Napoleon Dynamite.
October 30, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
For what it's worth, Diego/Hotline 10/30 tracking poll (Obama 48-42) is weighted 41% Democrat, 35% Republican -- which matches precisely with today's Fox/OD poll. As H/D notes, Obama's losses are coming mostly from independent voters swinging towards McCain.
Party weighting doesn't completely explain the new Fox/OD numbers. In this latest survey, they too report independent voters swinging to McCain. Their latest poll finds Obama winning independent voters 46-41 (n=146 +-8%). Their last survey (20-21 Oct 08) had Obama up with Independents by nine, 44-35 (14% undecided, pretty substantial). Considering the large margin of error in this poll with independent voters, that swing could well be statistical noise. On the other hand, there may be a pattern emerging, with Obama losing his comfortable margin with independent voters.
Economist/YouGov just released a October 25-27 poll themselves, with Obama ahead 49-42 and party weighting at 34.7% Dem, 26.1% Rep, 37.3% Indie. Obama wins Independents in their poll 44-41 (N=366). Who's right? I have no idea.
Even so, with Democrats still edging out Republican registrations by several points at least, Obama winning his party in equal or greater numbers than McCain, and winning independents by small margins -- Obama wins. I think we're just seeing a natural tightening of the race, but a still comfortable lead for Obama-Biden.
October 30, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
My mistake. Fox shows 41% LV-D, 39% LV-R (+2D).
October 30, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has there been any movement in Joe the Plumber's household?
October 30, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only in his bowels.
October 30, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're pretty funny, Eric. Indiana is now a "swing state"??
And the national Fox poll has some pretty eye-popping breakdowns of Dems and Repubs. Eye-popping in that there are nearly equal proportions of Dems and Repubs in the poll, which seems, um, WILDLY AT ODDS WITH REALITY!
October 30, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
No shit... I don't know what Eric is thinking there. IN is a "Landslide State". If Obama takes it, he's on a massive Landslide wave.
I wouldn't get too worried about the Marist numbers. Nate has CO at 5.5 and VA at 5.9. The CO is above Nate's numbers, which is a sign of a "good" poll result. The VA is under, but Nate's number is split between those who see it as close and those who see it as wide.
John
October 30, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously?
I think Eric knows his commenters pretty well. Well enough that I think he's just yanking everyone's chain, and doing a pretty fine job of it.
October 30, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric's like Bush, toying with our emotions, keeping the fear alive, not bothering to look at the particulars (like how this poll was taken), keeping us on edge....
lol, you have to admit that it's kind of funny.
October 30, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
So the choices are:
(a) idiot
(b) troll
I don't see either of those being a benefit for him. :)
Seriously, why troll the loyal readers who click here to read the posts and push out Josh's ad revenue? In the process of doing that, he piss away his credibility in the TPM Empire with us. His payback for that is to figuratively sit there in TPM Towers with his hand wrap around his Johnson getting off each time one of us goes on a jag pointing out that he's an idiot when it comes to polling.
The cost/benefit on that one isn't very good for the little buzz he gets... if the answer is (b).
The reality is that come 11/5, TPM goes back from being Election Central driven to being News & Issues & Muck driven. What makes *us* drop by in those times is the credibility the site has. People like Josh and Greg and contributors past & present. If you first started coming here during the Social Security War, or the USAG War, or some other point, the thing that kept you coming back is that you got good news, good analysis, and the willingness of TPM to scratch below the surface of News/Spin to the nonense going on underneath.
For the folks who started coming to TPM during the Election and for Election Central coverage, the "bones" the site made with the USAG story or the SS story may just not have any meaning to them. Election coverage is their gateway into the site. You want them to stick around for that point when Waxie & Co. in Congress and the Senate finally have a Obama Adminisration that allows certain people who knows where Bush Admin bodies are buried to start testify in oversight hearings. There are huge stories out there that TPM does as well as anyone that are going to start washing up on the shores in 2009.
So there just is no point to play (b) with them.
If it's (a), then Eric needs to bust his balls to get up to the standards we expect out of TPM. Those huge stories that are coming? We won't stick around TPM to him cover them in the fashion that we see the polls handled.
John
"I'm rambling again..."
-The Stranger in the Big Lebowski
October 30, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well said, tosh. I agree.
October 30, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not only that, it's a "KEY" swing state!!!!!!
October 30, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ohio is looking sweet.
ALL polls show Obama ahead.
October 30, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
About that Fox Poll
10/10
Obama 46 McCain 39
Democrats n=371, ±5 percentage points; Republicans n=304, ±6 percentage points;
independents n=190, ±7
10/23
Obama 49 McCain 40
Democrats n=401, ±5 percentage points; Republicans n=345, ±5; independents n=148
10/30
Obama 47 McCain 43
Democrat LV n=379, ±5; Republican LV n=364, ±5; independent LV n=146, ±8
It turns out that if the Dems go from a roughly 6.5% advantage* to a 1.4% advantage in 3 weeks the polls tighten considerably. But Obama still wins by 3.
October 30, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fox is cooking the books, both for RV and LV.
Check the very end of their poll PDF:
From last week's +9 to this +3 they:
Went from +6D to +2D in LV demo.
Went from +7D to +1D in RV demo.
Imagine, Fox thinks that even *registered voter* demographics had a huge swing last *week*.
If you simply reweight their own data by last week's 43D 37R, you'll see that there has been very little change. Something like +9 to +7, NOT down to +3.
October 30, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still want to know two things:
Who are they polling and are they accounting for early votes in these polls?
If they are only showing people who have not voted yet - well, that is not the entire picture.
October 30, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fox is cooking the books, both for RV and LV.
Check the very end of their poll PDF:
From last week's +9 to this +3 they:
Went from +6D to +2D in LV demo.
Went from +7D to +1D in RV demo.
Imagine, Fox thinks that even *registered voter* demographics had a huge swing last *week*.
If you simply reweight their own data by last week's 43D 37R, you'll see that there has been very little change. Something like +9 to +7, NOT down to +3.
October 30, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
2% difference?! That IS crazy.
Re: VA and CO, pace Nate Silver, I think the state polls are still lagging a day or two behind the nationals and may be reflecting the gains McCain made between Sunday and Tuesday. IMO the pendelum's swinging back Obama's way after the past 24 hours...hopefully we'll see his state leads increasing again (at worst, simply stabilizing) over the weekend.
And time keeps on tickin'...I'm counting down by hours now.
October 30, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
How is i you mention Nate Silver but didn't mention that he said lagging polls is a MYTH.
October 30, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm asking in all seriousness. Does Eric contribute anything to this site? All I ever see from him is shallow, reactionary snark or verbatim postings of polls with no contextual analysis under an often misleading, sensationalistic headline. I'm not sure if he's ever explained to us just who Marist is and why we should pay attention to their polls any more than Rasmussen.
October 30, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Eric posts polls with commentary designed to annoy people. And judging from your comment, he's doing an outstanding job of it.
Maybe he doesn't do commentary on who, for instance, Marist is, or Rasmussen, or anything like that because he thinks the commenters are a bunch of poll-addicted junkies who will be familiar with them. Who knows?
I've been a long time reader here at EC, and your comment about whether Eric contributes anything, ever, is, in my opinion, really out of line and needlessly cruel.
October 30, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I co-sign this.
I've bitched at Eric quite a bit but mainly for conclusions drawn that I thought were premature or strangely stated and I've never questioned his role here - I thought that wasn't up to me, in the first place, and I figured I was in the minority when it came to hating polls.
October 30, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've actually bitched more at Greg over conclusions I thought weren't warranted -
Yet I spend all my time here. Which ought to tell Greg and Eric that I think they are good bloggers. I've told Greg that before and I've given props to Eric a number of times.
I try to bitch and praise as equally as I can - but poor Eric gets most of the heat. I think he does know us pretty damn well.
;)
October 30, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric gets the heat from a lot of people because he chooses phrases and words that people object to. But all the criticism happens when his descriptions are less than flattering for the Obama campaign. I've yet to see someone get up in arms when Eric describes Obama's lead as "widening".
October 30, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're absolutely right.
October 30, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think that's totally true. I'm sure there's a partisan element to the abuse he gets from commenters here, but a large part of the criticism also stems from his tendency to read movement into the polls that's simply not there. Judging by his posts, he doesn't seem to understand when the movement he sees is most likely just statistical noise.
October 30, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're probably not going to get this, but I understand your point, and I have issues with aggregating polls in general. Too much like meta analysis, of which I am not a fan.
However, if Election Central didn't do some sort of poll aggregationg, people probably would be deeply annoyed with that, as well, so for Eric, it seems like a lose-lose situation.
Perhaps the better solution would be to post the aggregates and nix the commentary.
October 30, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
'and nix the commentary'. Nailed it.
Just the reputed polls, Eric, just the reputed polls.
October 30, 2008 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, I acknowledge that I was probably a bit overharsh on Eric. But I've never understood the value of these poll posts. The daily movement of polls almost never has any bearing on the actual race, and multiple posts about polls over the course of a day seems like overkill. And I've never gotten the impression that Eric really understands how to read polls. How many times has he posted a headline about one candidate or the other "closing the gap" because the average of the polls has moved by two tenths of a point?
And that stuff makes up a huge portion of the posts he does here.
October 30, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ugh that marist polling group doesnt like to give out much info do they?
Though they do show that their LV method cuts down Obama support.
October 30, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
As if we needed any more proof that Fox is a partisan hack organization and in bed with the GOP, they blatantly play with polling demographics in order to show the race tightening. How could Fox defend this if questioned about it?
October 30, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jonze, to the layperson, they just need to say "it's statistics. We took the blah and blah cofactor and blah blah blah" and they'll back off.
Unfortunately, it takes a lot of work to see who's using stats honestly and who's using it to say what they want to say. During election time, there ought to be a neutral statistician at each network, sitting next to each political "analyst".
I'm not sure if that's funny, whacko, or what we ought to be doing...
October 30, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to my inner avatar, recent polls results from my home state that show 23% of Texans believe Bahrain Houston Yokohoma is a Muslim shows we still have "THEE" math.
October 30, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's time for Obama to visit Arizona during his upcoming western state swing. It'll throw McCain off his own strategy, or whatever he has left of it.
October 30, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Over 12,000,000 Americans have already voted, according to the local news here - and that sounds right. Close to 2,000,000 have voted in Texas already, over 50,000 have voted in New Mexico, etc. etc. etc.
October 30, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
And you cancelled out exactly one of those Texans who believe Mullah Obama will cplace a payer rug in the West Wing. Bless you. Course so did I.
October 30, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saw that - 23% is a long way from a majority.
It's about what Bush polls favorably at.
October 30, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I did too! Reading that in the paper this morning made me want to go out and vote again...
October 30, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama is really up 18 pts in early voting in Colorado, it's looking really good for him here.
According to Dan Balz at the Washington Post, the number of early votes in Colorado so far is already greater than half of the total number of votes cast in 2004. Yeah, Colorado has been growing in population the last 4 years, but still...that's an amazing statistic.
Early voting has been going on here since the 20th, and it's extremely easy. I showed up to vote last Wednesday morning and the polling place was stocked with poll-workers and machines as if it were election day. Additionally, every registered voter in the state is sent early voting information -- and on top of that Obama has been advertising early voting hard here.
I can see now why the McCain people see Pennsylvania as do or die. Colorado looks to be extremely difficult for them.
October 30, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looking at internals for the Fox poll they have the breakdown as 41%Dem-39% Rep-16% Ind. Most pollster use around a 6% difference Dem-Rep.
Also in looking at Fox's poll from last week they had a completely different break down (43&Dem-37% Rep.-16%Ind).
22 October 2008
Polling was conducted by telephone October 20-21, 2008, in the evenings. The
total sample is 1100 registered voters (RV) nationwide, with a margin of error
of ±3 percentage points. A subsample of 936 has been defined as likely voters
(LV), with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
This poll doesn't show a tightening in the race, but instead a case of Fox playing with the numbers to give that impression. This poll is nothing but a farce by Fox.
Democrats n=401, ±5 percentage points; Republicans n=345, ±5; independents n=148, ±8
Obama supporters n=462, ±5; McCain supporters n=370, ±5
October 30, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not concerned. The polls should be tightening. The funny thing is they aren't tightening as much as one would expect.
October 30, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not concerned. The polls should be tightening. The funny thing is they aren't tightening as much as one would expect.
October 30, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looking at internals for the Fox poll they have the breakdown as 41%Dem-39% Rep-16% Ind. Most pollster use around a 6% difference Dem-Rep.
Also in looking at Fox's poll from last week they had a completely different break down (43&Dem-37% Rep.-16%Ind).
22 October 2008
Polling was conducted by telephone October 20-21, 2008, in the evenings. The
total sample is 1100 registered voters (RV) nationwide, with a margin of error
of ±3 percentage points. A subsample of 936 has been defined as likely voters
(LV), with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
This poll doesn't show a tightening in the race, but instead a case of Fox playing with the numbers to give that impression. This poll is nothing but a farce by Fox.
Democrats n=401, ±5 percentage points; Republicans n=345, ±5; independents n=148, ±8
Obama supporters n=462, ±5; McCain supporters n=370, ±5
October 30, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't mind polls tightening really, because Dems have the registered voter advantage, meaning all that we need to do is get out the vote. It's one thing to fill out a form for a couple minutes at a booth or on a street corner, it's another thing to stand in line for an hour+ to actually vote.
October 30, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
good point
October 30, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
This will break hard for Obama in the last 72 hours. You will hear the tone of McCains speeches get all warm and fuzzy as reality sets in. As for Palin her fangs will always be out.
These voters aren't turning out in historical numbers because they love the way things are going.
October 30, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not a real poll junkie but I don't see any breakdown by demographics, for instance, in VA - age, race, etc. Maybe I'm missing it. But a one-time poll of 752 people with no demo breakdown doesn't sound very reliable about much of anything.
Maybe someone else sees it differently:
http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/
October 30, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
If fixing polls is all Faux Noise has at this point I say just let them have it.
It's more pathetic than anything.
October 30, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
So FOX changed their party ID? What I really like about the NBC/WSJ polls is that their party ID's remain UNCHANGED from poll to poll. I think that is how polls should be.
I am glad the Obama team is not taking anything for granted. They are fighting hard every single day.
October 30, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is some perspective on the Fox News poll...
Right now, this is what I have calculated as the average Party ID weights used by all the polls that release this information...
Dem 38.1%
Rep 31.6%
Ind 30.3%
Since the Fox News polls gives us it's poll internals, we can weight the support by party ID, and get a better idea of what the poll would be saying if it's likely voter model was more in line with the norm. Doing this, you end up with a much different result:
Obama 50.1%
McCain 42.1%
Other 2.6%
Undec. 5.2%
So that is +8 vs. +3, all because of how you determine likely voter turnout.
I use this same methodology when I make my poll average everyday. I make sure that each poll is "normalized" to the same likely voter model, so that a +4 in one poll is not different than a +4 in another.
October 30, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome! October Surprise:
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/10/qaeda_wants_republicans_bush_h.php
Just when we need it. Not quite the OBL level of useful material, but no doubt the McCain Camp is hard at work to roll this into an add.
Of course what's more interesting is to see the Obama Campaign flip through their playbook for the play they had diagramed long ago for this.
John
October 30, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
October surprise for mcCain:
Oops. Reported at DailyKos.
October 30, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain hurting Joe The Plumber's brand! LOL:
:)
October 30, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joe is going Rouge!
John
October 30, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
RCP Poll Averages
Colorado
10/23
O - 50.4
Mc - 45
10/30
O - 50.8
Mc - 44.3
Florida
10/23
O - 47.8
MC - 45.8
10/30
O - 48.5
Mc - 45.0
Ohio
10/23
O - 49.7
Mc 43.7
10/30
O - 49.2
M - 43.4
Virginia
10/23
O - 51.5
Mc - 44.5
10/30
O - 51
Mc - 44.5
Penn
10/23
O - 51.5
Mc - 41.8
10/30
O - 52.3
Mc - 42.8
North Carolina
10/23
O - 49.2
Mc - 47.2
10/30
O - 48.7
Mc - 46.2
Missouri
10/23
O - 48
Mc - 45.3
10/28
O - 48
Mc -47.8
Indiana
10/23
O -46.3
Mc - 47.3
10/28
O - 45.8
Mc - 47.3
Yeah, this roller coaster is killing me
October 30, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It's tightening, I tell you. Trust me!"
-McCain Poller
John
October 30, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Opinion Dynamics is a good polling Organization.
In 92, Clinton had similar tightening...even down one point on some polls.
That ended during the weekend and he finished off with an electoral landslide.
Don't worry, this is normal.
Or worry. What ever works for you.
October 30, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
BTW, almost 30 millions did watch the informercial last night:)
October 30, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
And McCains rallies are now filled with paper airplanes, and spitballs...
Sounds like detention hall with Cindy and John.
October 30, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
For anyone who's lying awake at night wondering if McCain can pull this off; even though he's is ten points behind in PA, he's sending Sarah to campaign there today.
He's not just incompetent, he's wonderfully, deliciously incompetent.
What's more, he's ticked off George Will, again.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102903199.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
October 30, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sam Wang
* As of October 30, 12:01PM EDT:
* Obama: 367
* McCain: 171
* Meta-margin: Obama +8.62
October 30, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC: The polls are getting tied in PA...
What a bunch of idiots...
October 30, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tightening my ass. There hasn't been meaningful movement in either national or state polls in a month; this thing is so over. Not counseling complacency by any means, but really, some people could stand to chill a little bit.
October 30, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, you may appreciate this story from Texas. One Hester Abrams recently died in Austin, and this is the last part of her obituary:
"Hester was a natural, graceful athlete with a passion for fly fishing, scuba diving, paddle tennis, tennis, and golf. She was a self taught guitar player, and the harmony when she sang was pure beauty. In lieu of flowers, memorials may be given to the charity of your choice. P.S. She would appreciate it if you would vote for Obama."
October 30, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gee, I sure hate to gloat at McGeriatric's discomfort, but:
...oh, dear. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...sorry. I guess I'm just a cruel bastard.
October 30, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
RE;
I saw that McCain moment ..... "Is Joe the plumber here ? Where's Joe ? " Tick Tick Tick .... Joe's not here ? Well you're all Joe the plumber !"
Losing your #1 campaign prop . Now that incompetence we can all believe in.
Where's a plumber when you need one ?
October 30, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
RE;
I saw that McCain moment ..... "Is Joe the plumber here ? Where's Joe ? " Tick Tick Tick .... Joe's not here ? Well you're all Joe the plumber !"
Losing your #1 campaign prop . Now that incompetence we can all believe in.
Where's a plumber when you need one ?
October 30, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
According RCP Obama is ahead by 9.5 in PA. A tightening but statistically irrelevant.
Here's the breakdown:
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/27 - 10/28 625 LV 4.0 47 43 Obama +4
Morning Call 10/24 - 10/28 610 LV 4.0 53 42 Obama +11
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 768 LV 3.5 55 43 Obama +12
Rasmussen 10/27 - 10/27 500 LV 4.5 53 46 Obama +7
Marist 10/26 - 10/27 713 LV 4.0 55 41 Obama +14
InAdv/PollPosition 10/26 - 10/26 588 LV 3.8 51 42 Obama +9
See All Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html
October 30, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fox is doing us a favor. By reporting out polls that are tightening it will motivate our side to get out and vote and to volunteer and to kick their friends in the butt!
it's not enough to simply win. We have to win with a big enough mandate that the right wing will be gagged at least for a while.
October 30, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fox is doing us a favor. By reporting out polls that are tightening it will motivate our side to get out and vote and to volunteer and to kick their friends in the butt!
it's not enough to simply win. We have to win with a big enough mandate that the right wing will be gagged at least for a while.
October 30, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric - Why does Fox not release their demographics for their polls? This was how we were able to determine that AP/GfK poll was a farce.
BTW, of course the Fox poll asks if you think the media is pushing any candidate over another. Man, they must spend ALL day in their news rooms just fuming over MSNBC and the other media outlets not being a mouthpiece for the right like they are.
October 30, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
mk,
Fox did release enough to determine that this poll is a farce. Or rather, that the real movement in their poll from last week is 1 or 2 points toward McCain, not 6 points.
See the last section of the poll pdf. As has been reported in the comments above, fully 4 to 5 points of the 6 point "tightening" is actually changes in party ID!
Even more shocking, to me, than these changing party ID weights in the likely voter model is the fact that they changed the weighting even more in the *registered voter* sample. Think about what that means... they really think there was a 7 point swing in party identification in the past week???
The only explanation I can imagine would be if they simply don't adjust the party IDs of their samples. But that would be a lousy methodology.
Using consistent party ID weights, the FOX poll would have O up ~7 over McCain, which is completely within reason.
Opinion Dynamics has some explaining to do.
October 30, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
...or if you use the average party ID weights from all the polls, Obama would actually be +8. Statistically tied vs. +8.... hmmmm.
October 30, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Selective sampling in order to create a headline ... or to keep Grampy in the game.
October 30, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fox fixes their polls on the same day that the statement is released from Al Qaeda. Wow, such perfectly synchonized timing.
So now they can put the urgent call out for all voters to help McCain win the election and show Al Qaeda who really runs America.
Can these people be any more obvious? Seriously.
God help our country if it works (again).
October 30, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It won't.
October 30, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the "wild-card" I'm most concerned about....for instance, how it might be playing out already in Florida...will the youth vote stay home or vote? http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-earlyvote3008oct30,0,5283353.story
October 30, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you guys know who Selter is? Selzer is the GOLD STANDARD of polling. It is the most accurate poll of THEM ALL. It shows Indiana is........a tossup. I hope she does some more polling.
October 30, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I appreciate the info on polls, but it leaves my head in a spin. So, I'll just check in on fivethirtyeight.com once a day.
October 30, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I'll just add this, as a "grey beard" who voted in every election since I have been eligible: if the youth vote isn't at least 5% higher than what Kerry got, and if Obama loses because of it (and yeah, it'll be in battleground states), then I have an answer for that question of what Obama should cut in his priorities: anything and everything that has to do with "making college affordable" (and I throw in a "take that" to those white parents of young kids who are in the middle class and vote Republican). Now, for something more positive and uplifting (albeit in reliably blue California), here's the next wave of new "potential" voters, and not good news for the GOP: http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/1355487.html
October 30, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you have to question whether this is a deliberate attempt (by Fox) to bolster the voter fraud meme that the tards have been pushing on their base. If they can show a neck and neck race going into the election, and then it's an Obama win, then they can do a bunch of specials on ACORN.
I did my first canvas on Sunday. I'm out in a "minimize the loss" area of Ohio, and you can really feel the anger on the McCain side. They aren't being polite. "That name is not mentioned in this house!" That kind of thing. Several on the list were youngsters (
October 30, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aggregate polls say nothing in terms of statistics (I can't say that they are insignificant because that has another meaning in statistics). Kind of like an average of averages. It's a nice number to talk about but it doesn't mean any thing statistically. Also kind of like talking to a philosopher/astrophysicists who pointed out to me the meaningless of pondering what is outside of the universe. If the universe includes everything then nothing can be outside of it (actually it would be literally nothing that is outside of it, not that you can measure nothing).
Aggregates meaningless, from an Obama supporter.
October 30, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure how you can say that they dont mean anything. They tend to be more accurate than the polls are themselves. It's like forecasting the weather. The consensus of all of the computer models is generally more accurate than any model. The consensus of all human forecasters is generally more accurate than any one forecaster.
If you aggregate the results together in the right way and weight them on the same terms, they should be more accurate, since a larger sample size is being polled than any one poll.
October 30, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink