Multiple Polls Now Show Obama Ahead In Florida
One key thing about the new Quinnipiac polling released today is this: It is now the fourth recent public to find Barack Obama ahead in Florida, a state most observers have previously thought would be John McCain's to lose:
• Quinnipiac: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, in a poll released today. Three weeks ago, McCain lead 50%-43%.
• PPP (D): Obama 49%, McCain 45%, in a poll released yesterday. Three weeks ago, McCain was up 50%-45%.
• ARG: Obama 47%, McCain 46%, in a poll released a few days ago. Two weeks ago, the candidates were tied 46%-46%.
• Mason-Dixon: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, in a poll from a week ago. They also had Obama ahead 45%-44% a month ago, but were something of an outlier at the time.
There are other pollsters that don't have Obama ahead, but they've all shown him making significant progress:
• Rasmussen: Tied 47%-47%, in a poll released two days ago. Late last week, McCain had a 48%-47% edge.
• SurveyUSA: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, In a poll released two days ago. Two weeks ago, McCain was up 51%-45%.
The reason for Obama's surge in Florida is the same as it is everywhere else: The economy. Both the Quinnipiac and PPP polls, which have supplied data on this, show that over 60% of Florida voters list the economy as their most important issue, and they give Obama a double-digit lead over McCain on how to handle it. By contrast, security issues only register in the teens, and McCain's advantage on those doesn't appear to be big enough to overcome the economic hurdles.
The economy? Surely that's part of it. But Sarah Palin? You KNOW that is a big reason.
October 1, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Have you seen today's spate of stories/videos on Palin's debate style and its successes in Alaska? I begin to worry that she has had the perfect setup to do well tomorrow night. Also, the format seems tailor made for her: short reply segments without candidate interaction. She will be able to get in plenty of her populist, "cute", Joe-6-pack sound bites without ever having to reveal how vacuous she is in specifics. As one Alaska pol who debated her two dozen times remarks: "She's a master of the glittering generality." There's a possibility here of a bit surprise and a second Palin bump in the polls.
October 1, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
bit = big
October 1, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
We'll see. Impressions are pretty difficult to change. And if all people see is a pretty face and little substance....
Remember, the low info voters may not be the debate viewers.
October 1, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe. But I've got a funny feeling about this. "The media hate me because I'm a Joe-6-pack American." I'm holding my breath to see how this weird new brand of demagoguery plays out.
October 1, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
If our economy wasn't imploding and Iraq War was over, maybe she could sweettalk her way into the WH. But not this year. Most of the undecideds are either Dems or Independents. They're looking for answers. The few she has is not what they want to hear.
October 1, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's exactly right. Her "Average Gal" thing worked before the seriousness of the Economic Crisis set in. Most people would prefer a VP candidate who actually can name one major newspaper or magazine when asked what she reads.
October 1, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
With 34 days before the election, the current National Enquirer cover story is about Palin's Extramarital Affair, while The Globe cover is focused on "Cover Up Exposed! McCain Wife Hooked On Drugs".
We don't need no stinkin' Rove or Swiftboaters, the tabloids are doing the work! And I'm guessing that the trash mags are much more effective in reaching those "low information" voters.
October 1, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
And it's pretty sweet revenge -- the tabloids get mainstream attention because the GOP and Drudge demanded that the media consider their wild stories about the Clinton Administration.
October 1, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do think that she'll outperform expectations, but I think at this point, it won't matter. The CW has set in that she's not experienced enough and is just not up to the job. People will look at everything that she says through that filter and will be ultra-critical and ultra-skeptical. Vague generalities will not be enough. As Chuck Todd, intimated this morning, she's probably too far gone at this point.
October 1, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, that's exactly right.
There's too much out there that says Palin is an inexperienced, in-over-her-head lightweight for one debate performance to alter.
October 1, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
And perhaps most important, she's the new face introducing herself to the country, so just "not tanking" isn't enough. She has to prove to the national audience that she's good enough, or she's failed.
October 1, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the Quin poll, discussing all the states:
October 1, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
The economy, Sarah Palin's idiocy, McCain becoming unhinged. I'm sure they're all factors.
October 1, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain isn't panicking, he should be.
October 1, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is weird mix of anger and panic. All other things being equal, I do not envy his aides who have to deal with him behind the scene. I wonder if some of them start bailing ship here soon.
October 1, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Especially when the guy justifies everything that he does with his ambitions and his POW experience. "Whatever it takes"
October 1, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I saw a newsclip online where McCain actually had the gall to insist that Obama really WAS trying to puash explicit sex ed into little kids' minds. He kept pointing to "documentation", secure in the knowledge that most viewers wouldn't know what he was talking about. And then, of course, he brought up the Honor/Service to Country/POW thing again. Does he really believe his lies? Is he THAT good a liar?
October 1, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Put yourself in their shoes. What do you do?
I guess you send everything you got to Ohio and Florida. You must have both to have a shot.
But if Colorado and Virginia continue their move to Obama, you have to either reverse that trend in BOTH states, or you have to win Pennsylvania. But a McCain win in PA is looking fairly remote at this point, especially with this Quin poll.
Alternatively, maybe you give up on either CO or VA, do everything humanly possible to hold Florida and Ohio, and focus what resources you have left on moving Wisconsin or Minnesota.
October 1, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think they're aiming at WI and MN. It really is their only hope, a weak as it is.
And I'm wondering just how much more Barr is going to hurt McCain, now with this bailout. Those in his party with the big libertarian leanings are going to be pretty disgusted once McCain says "yea" on this bailout. A lot might just throw up their arms and stay home on Nov. 4th.
October 1, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, NC is in play also. If it keeps moving towards Obama, a WI/MN strategy will not work for McCain either.
October 1, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is spending heavily in Ohio too as we write.
We will win Ohio.
Book it!
October 1, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Que Sarah Sarah
It's the lethal combination of SARAHs -- Palin and Silverman.
October 1, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, Silverman had to redeem her name. And she's done so in spades!
October 1, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't know what you were talking about till I Googled. My God, what a video!! I love it! Anyone not seen it yet? Go to TheGreatSchlep.com.
October 1, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight made a prediction last night in a really great analysis of yesterdays polls. He predicted that Quinnipiac would show something of a large Obama lead if Ras and SUSA showed him only one point down. Key Graff:
October 1, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that the debate format "helps" lower the bar for Dame Simpleton. Nevertheless, by forcing shorter answers, you also force more questions. And the more questions jump around, the more potential for Simpleton Mix-ups.
Incidentally, I just got word that Ifill broke her ankle yesterday.
Moderating a debate "under the influence" of major pain relievers should be verboten!
October 1, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
The polls from 2 days ago don't count, good or bad. I'd not go back there. What counts is today, and I like what I'm seeing today.
Every day from now on is election day as early voting has begun (I'd appreciate if somebody provides data on early voting numbers or where to look up for this).
McCain is already panicking. Worse is yet to come.
It is not good for a heart patient (well, patient with 1000 chronic diseases). I fear he might end up in ER on election day and get a few sympathy votes or do a drama of that sort, as a last resort.
October 1, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
All the above mentioned reasons are part of it - but I think the debate changed things significantly.
A lot of people really saw Obama for the first time. They'd seen some speeches maybe, or snippets on the campaign trail. But seeing him in this setting - intelligent, calm, standing straight, sounding reasonable and completely uninterested in engaging McCain's nastiness or cheap partisan shots - made many folks finally see the man we've been watching for so long.
October 1, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. It's hard for me to remember that some people (a lot of people) have not been engaged in this election since the primary.
October 1, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Read the internals of the Pew poll and that's exactly what it shows.
October 1, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
YUP. Agreed completely. I don't believe the increase in momentum toward Obama would be happening at all if O hadn't knocked it out of the park Thursday night.
It wasn't just what O said. The visual was an almost exact image of Kennedy-Nixon, 1960. Very powerful stuff.
October 1, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I remember that debate very well. We were so full of joy and hope, because we knew for a fact that Tricky Dick was toast.
October 1, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Repubs are beginning to be openly upset with how McCain is running his campaign
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/14146.html
Of course they are also asking for McCain to smear Obama with Rezko, Wright etc. (Wouldn't be effective in this economic mess.) The line I like best:
October 1, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Give me a goddamn break - I really, really hope Obama's campaign understands they're being set up with the whole "Palin failed two test debates last week" bullshit!
Talk about a classic case of making your opponent underestimate you.
McCain & Co. are so totally looking for Palin to take control tomorrow after assuming Biden underestimated her.
DON'T FALL FOR IT, JOE!!!!
October 1, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Read this NY Times article on her previous debate performance.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/01/us/politics/01palin.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
When one compares the assessment (confident but vague) to how she answered Gibson and Couric, I really don't think she has the intellectual prowness and knowledge to "take control." Maybe survive, but not control.
October 1, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I fully expect her to be really nasty and snide in order to try and bait Biden into attacking her. She needs to get the media to talk about how Biden was mean or condascending to her.
October 1, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Any woman who whines about the boys ganging up on her doesn't deserve to be in politics. Yes, I'm talking to YOU, Hillary.
October 1, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The other thing is that in Alaska she was running on her own platform and agenda. I'm sure she felt much more confident to stake out positions and defend them.
Now she's running with McCain's agenda and national Republican party platform, where she is clearly out of her depth on a wide range of issues. I think she will be terrified of making a mistake by contradicting McCain or the party in front of a national audience.
I expect a lot of long pauses, run-on sentences, and meandering non-answers chalk full of "approved" talking points.
October 1, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
As well as a lot of "Well, Gwen, in Alaska..."
October 1, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly.
She doesn't know her ass from her elbow when it comes to national issues.
October 1, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm waiting for her answer to what our approach be to the national health care crisis and to no child left behind.
October 1, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed.
And it's also worth pointing out that she's not debating a little-known Governor from Alaska this time. Not even in the same park, not even the same game.
October 1, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain & Co. are probably freaking out right now.
October 1, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
And Bill Clinton is doing two stops down there in Sunshine State. Not a huge fan of him these days, but he can be helpful to Obama down there. More local press. And Bill Clinton reminds people that times used to be good.
October 1, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I still smell a big Alaskan rat!
October 1, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bill Clinton - oh, you mean the guy who's been praising McCain solidly for the last two weeks, but won't do the same for Obama because he's "only met the guy once"?
That Bill Clinton? The one who's making every effort to make sure Hillary is able to run again in 2012?
October 1, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that Bill Clinton. I don't like the guy, but all that stuff he blathers on about doesn't really stick with the 50+ year olds who come out to see him speak. They hear him stand on stage and say Obama is the one to vote for, and that's what the local press writes, and there you have it.
October 1, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Palin still worries me - not at all about what she knows or her experience, but because I simply don't trust the American voter to see through her.
She can babble all she wants about absolutely nothing, but as long as she does it in a charming, aw shucks kind of way - with the occasional Alaskan street slang thrown in - average joe voters will watch that and just find her to be sooooooo adorable. So adorable that they'll vote for her and McCain without a second's hesitation.
THAT is what worries me about her! The average idiot giving her the benefit of the doubt because she's just so damn cute!
Welcome to the new "reality show" era of politics!
October 1, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe in the past, but not this year. There's too much crap going on...people can't get loans and are seeing their 401ks sinking fast. They see the current administration on tv struggling to explain what's going on....you really think they're ready to turn to someone who sounds more illiterate than their current president?
October 1, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's right.
In an average Presidential election year, Palin helps get votes of guys who pound-off looking at her photo. However, if you don't have a job, or are worrying about the one you have, there's no time to fantasize.
October 1, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Welcome to the new "reality show" era of politics!
That's funny. I said these exact words to my wife last night.
Look Joe, it's your life so worry like this if you must, but at least consider the facts as we know them.
The current frame is about the economy. It ain't getting better any time soon, and short of mushroom clouds over Manhattan there isn't a terror alert high enough to change that focus. Obama OWNS this issue. The Republicans own the *creation* of it as an issue.
The VP issue works better for us than it does for them, no matter how fucking cute or adorable Ms. MILF '08 might turn out to be. Why? The economy. People, especially retirement age people, are scared to fucking death of having to stand in bread lines should this thing unwind all at once.
Stark, raving fear focuses the mind like nothing else in the human experience. Trust me on this one fact, if nothing else.
October 1, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're right about him. He definitely seems like he still has a chip on his shoulder about the primaries.
October 1, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, he has the chip, but he also desiring the adoration of the Democrats out there, and a repairing of his image. He knows he has to be supportive in stump speeches.
And he also knows that if Obama wins and he didn't play ball somewhat, he would be completely locked out of the DNC and the insiders come 2009. Bill wants to be a player.
October 1, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
You won't see Sarah the politician up at that podeum tomorrow night - no, you'll see Charming Sarah up there with all smiles, witty quips and a glow about her that will make Biden seem like the old fart she's subtly been trying to make him look like.
And like I said above, many (TOO MANY) will fall in love with that Sarah and vote for that Sarah.
"Screw the economy, screw my financial future - as long as Sweetheart Sarah's a heartbeat away, I'm all for it! BTW, did you see her bangs yesterday? God, I wish mine were like that!"
October 1, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Disagree. See my post above. She's going to be nasty and play the "Sarah Barracuda" thing to the hilt....just like at the convention. She NEEDS Biden to attack her or lose his patience with her. Her only hope is the victim card.
October 1, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
It doesn't fucking matter how she plays it. See my post above, too.
October 1, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
As expected McCain & Co. are freaking out. From Jonathan Martin at Politico this is there statement from the polls:
“These polls are laughable. We hope Obama thins they’re true. The national tracking is clear: Some polls have us down 2%, some 4, some as high as 6. How could you have national numbers like that, but have those kinds of numbers in three of the largest, most competitive states in the country? These states are bellwethers because they closely mirror national demographics. Given the volume of campaigning in those states, we expect that they are close to the national track – if not tighter.”
October 1, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't notice that you had posted this as well. My bad.
October 1, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
"We expect that they are close to the national track." In other words, they have no evidence that these polls are laughable.
Either they're lying or they believe their gut feelings over the evidence. My money is on the former.
October 1, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
No one has posted it, so I thought I would. Here's the McCain camp's comment on the new Q Polls:
October 1, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heh. So, not surprisingly, polling is another area McCain doesn't understand, and he just parrots the reassuring things his advisors tell him.
The truth, of course, is that national polls lead state polls because they're conducted more frequently (though there's also more noise, so an apparent trend may not be real.) And that's exactly what we've seen -- a few days after the national tracking polls showed Obama opening up a lead, polling in those large competitive states is starting to show the same thing.
October 1, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, keep laughing guys... all the way to an epic defeat in November.
October 1, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
What Hillary Clinton should do IMMEDIATELY after the debate is appear on ALL of the cable networks for the rest of the week blasting Palin's performance and her answers.
THAT will put a damper on the potential PUMA effect resulting from seeing "Barracuda" in action tomorrow.
October 1, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's no PUMA effect. The PUMAs are like three old ladies, Larry Johnson, and a computer. If you look at the polls, women don't like Sarah Palin. And any woman who seriously supported Clinton, wouldn't vote for Palin even with a gun pointed at her head.
October 1, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't seen or heard much from Hillary lately...and Bill? oh lordy, lock him up till everything's over. I wish she would do just that, but get right down to basics, all she can see or think of is 2012.
October 1, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am putting some of my CNN Market funny money down on IN
October 1, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sam Wang
As of October 1, 8:00 AM EDT: Obama: 312 McCain: 226
October 1, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why is Obama wasting his time and money in Florida? Shouldn't he be focussing on the swing states???
October 1, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hee, hee!
October 1, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
FL, FL, FL.
October 1, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
....I wish Tim Russert was here......
October 1, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah Palin will perform just fine tomorrow night.
She'll hit all her little zingers with precision. She'll stay well within her comfort zone.
Nothing will be said except chant slogans lovingly devoured by the pig-eyed conservatives and red neck low information voters.
This election is not going to be decided by them.
It's gonna drive me into madness watching it.
October 1, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess that's the way to triumph over some voters' instinctive racism -- put up a candidate so horrendously awful a guy just HAS to do the right thing. President Palin is the stuff of nightmares. Geena Davis starred in a great TV series a few years back about the first female President (Note she was a "token" VP first) but geeze, the woman had education and BRAINS.
October 1, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is very obvious that the majority of you are Obama fans. So I have a question for all of you that a Senator who is backing him couldn't answer. In the short time Obama has been in the Senate what has he actually done for the American citizens? I am not asking what is he going to do but what has he done and I know that since he became a US Senator he has spent a good deal of that time running for president, so that could explain why he hasn't had time to do the job he was hired for.
I know that he is talking about raising taxes for big businesses. Of course we all know that the little guy will pay for that because big business isn't just going to pay the higher tax without getting it back somehow. So it doesn't matter that he keeps saying that he isn't raising taxes for the middle class. We are going to need all the extra money we can get our hands on to pay for even higher prices at the pumps and in the stores.
As for this bailout, how many times did Barney Frank (D, MA) get asked about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? Combined they lost $14B this past year. He never once admitted that there was a problem and he still won't take any blame at all for this financial mess, even though as chairnam of the financial committee his job was to oversee the banking industry. And who in congress benefitted the most from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That's right it was Sen Dodd, Sen Obama and Rep Frank. Isn't that amazing.
As far as I can see the democrats including the wicked witch from the west, backed Bush on the Bailout so they could use it against the republicans in this election. If it doesn't work they will blame Bush and the republicans. If it does work they will be able to pat themselves on the back for a job well done. What they should have done is come up with a better plan. Maybe letting these companies file bankruptcy. What does Bush care? He is counting his days. There were plenty of economists who gave legitimate possibilites to get out of this mess without a financial bailout.
October 4, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink