MSNBC: Obama Crosses 270 Electoral Vote Threshold
Chuck Todd and the gang at MSNBC's First Read become the latest electoral-vote crunchers to decree that Barack Obama has crossed the 270 threshold without any of their designated toss-up states:
After moving the battlegrounds of Colorado and Virginia from Toss-up to Lean Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee now has crossed the 270 Electoral Vote threshold in NBC's electoral map. One week before the election, Obama leads McCain 286-163, up from his 264-163 advantage a week ago. As we pointed out on Friday, the significance of moving Colorado and Virginia into Obama's column is this: If Obama wins those two states, plus Nevada, he can still get to 270 -- even if he loses Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
And that's a pretty huge "if," given that Obama has double-digit leads in Pennsylvania and is narrowly ahead of McCain in Florida and Ohio in many polls.
First Read's calculation is yet another reminder why today's WaPo poll finding Obama up by eight in Virginia is such a big deal. If Obama can snatch Virginia, which is increasingly likely, it means McCain will have to sweep the big three battlegrounds, requiring a win Pennsylvania, in order to still have any hope at all of winning. And that just isn't going to happen.
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Frum was right. I sure hope nobody listens to him.
October 27, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
What're you referring to?
October 27, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
David Frum: Time for a Triage. A pretty good read. And good advice for Republicans.
October 27, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Down-ticket GOP'ers are in much more trouble than they realize.
The more they remain ignorant of this (i.e., don't read Frum or follow his advice), the worse they'll get crushed in the coming landslide.
October 27, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think there are some in the GOP who know there's in screwed shape down ticket. There was a quote from the GOP that literally *every* seat is at risk. It was hyperbol, but he was trying to get across that even "likely" seats are now moving over.
If you read the Kos tracking of Congressional races every day, there's bad news all over the map. Even in big GOP districts, races are tightening up.
John
October 27, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
David Frum wrote in the WaPo that mcCaint should give up on the presidency, and run the campaign so as to best help out R senate candidates in trouble. yeah, i'm lookin at you mcConnell, you worm.
October 27, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks y'all.
October 27, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I read that.
Sumpin tells me he ain't gonna do that - he's all Mavericky, remember? Not a team player.
October 27, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. McSlime doesn't give a shit about down-ticket races.
October 27, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
But, wait, Obama wants to redistribute wealth!??!
October 27, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ahem, ahem, ahcollectiveownershiphemhemhem...
October 27, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
yup, like her clothes, right?
October 27, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. I love the way Palin's unscripted arguments keep "rearing their heads" against her in the most hilarious ways.
October 27, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. A campaign that can't keep its message straight. How could they govern?
October 27, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Last week some of us were talking about Palin manuvering for work after the election (FOX anyone?). Well, here's some speculation off abc's main site: http://blogs.abcnews.com/screenshots/2008/10/will-people-tun.html
October 27, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Frankly, I hope she hears god tell her she should go home and focus on her kids.
October 27, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
amen
October 27, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Trainwrecks have the same effect on people.
October 27, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is so true! I honestly don't think she can think fast enough to be on tv. Unless it's a train wreck show... where she's the train wreck and her job is to interview other such train wrecky folks.
October 27, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
so she'll be interviewing McCain?
October 27, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Over and over....
October 27, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
They could also auction the clothes off - one by one. And give the proceeds to Alaskans. Or exorcists.
October 27, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
careful, this auctioning off Palin's clothes might, um, whip up the base.
October 27, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe she can be one of those unapologetically acknowledged-to-be-second-rate celebrities on truTV, like Gary Busey or Tonya Harding. She kinda is the Tonya Harding of presidential politics already.
October 27, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't Jerry Springer have a political career before descending to his place in the media?
October 27, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's got the "it factor". I couldn't read past that. I threw up a little in my mouth.
Alaska state laws prohibit Palin from accepting compensation for speaking engagements or books while she is Governor.
October 27, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, you know what Palin thinks about Alaska "law." They're really more like guidelines. Wink, wink.
October 27, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kind of like all of the natural resources in the state of Alaska.
October 27, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. And here's the greatest blog on a metaphor for Palin - from AKmuckraker at mudflats:
http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/10/26/the-lyin-the-witch-and-the-wardrobe-an-alaskan-tale/
Hillarious. And sad. But true.
October 27, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
The White Witch....perfect!!
October 27, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
You spoiled the surprise! :)
October 27, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ooo Greggy - I'm loving me some of this "that's all but certain not to happen."
What a way to start this agonizing week -
October 27, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damn. That is music to my ears, after 2000 and 2004.
October 27, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
No kidding. They can hang chads and no one will care.
October 27, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't that the truth!!!!!!!
October 27, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has Obama right where he wants him!!
October 27, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, yup!
HA!!!
October 27, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
exactly.
he just doesn't know what to do with him.
October 27, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why does anyone still consider PA a swing state? Obama is up by huge margins there.
October 27, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ratings... (tee vee, newspapers, magazines, yippeeee!)
October 27, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have no clue, but, hey, let's indulge them. Let's say McCain somehow breaks through the 10 point deficit in Pa in this last week and wins it. And wins Ohio and Florida.
He still doesn't win the election, if Obama's leads hold in Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia. Putting the former Bush states of NW and Iowa in Obama's column already, that makes Nevad, Colorado and Virginia collectively Obama's firewall states, if the completely unbelieveable happens and he loses Pennsylvania.
And he won't lose Pennsylvania.
October 27, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Last night on the local news they reported that Bernalillo Co. (ABQ) has so far seen 34,000 Democrats vote early, vs. 15,000 Repugs.
October 27, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a great illustration of how the nets - even Chuck Todd - have been playing games to make it seem closer than it is. Barack crossed 270 weeks ago by having all the Kerry states, plus CO, IA & NM. I've been saying this for weeks and no one's paying me the kind of cash Todd gets. Life's damn unfair.
However, it is valid to point out Barack now has enough "red" states to win without OH, FL or PA. In fact, the problem for the Repubs now is that they will have an almost impossible time stealing this election simply because Obama has too many states going for him. It's one thing to steal it when all you have to do is commit massive fraud in one state, maybe two. But to steal 5 or 6 or 7 states... they're fucked.
October 27, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm listening to you bvd. I can't pay you but I believe you.
October 27, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Second.
October 27, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Third.
October 27, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't be counting those chickens now.... We don't really know anything until Tuesday night. That said, woo hoo!
October 27, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I count no chicken before its time. But in terms of going by polling results he's had it for a while now, whether the nets have admitted it or not.
That said, I'm spending as much time as I can this week canvassing, even if NJ is a certainty.
October 27, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
The next person who says that is getting his teeth scattered all over the pavement.
Please stop it - I don't need constant reminders about 2000 and 2004. Believe me - I will never forget those elections.
That said, please quit telling me not to count my chickens, dammit.
October 27, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I got fucking egged after Saturday's ABQ Obama rally. If anyone can talk about fucking chickens, it's me.
October 27, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
If anyone can talk about fucking chickens, it's me.
now, there's no reason to bring rick santorum into this discussion
October 27, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whahahahaha! XD
October 27, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is like a replay of the primaries. Where the media hyped each primary, though the conclusion was already foregone. Of course Obama kept working. As we will continue to do. It's a landslide I'm working for!
October 27, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Precisely. We have to double our efforts now to make sure the landslide is so huge - and the down-ticket coattails so long - that no repug argument against a mandate will gain traction.
They'll make the argument all right, regardless of the outcome, but only a real landslide will make it look ludicrous.
And Kentucky's got four red congressional seats we're trying to turn. Only a dem landslide is going to turn them.
October 27, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I dare say the prospect of a landslide will cause more Obama volunteers to redouble their efforts than to slack off. It's just saying that more of them are motivated by positives than by fear of defeat.
BTW, sincere thanks for your efforts. Go get 'em!
October 27, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Yellow dog, did you see on the TPM front page the story about the McConnell debate voice recorder debacle? If not, check it out. Trying to illegally record your opponent in a senate debate isn't a good way to be reelected.
October 27, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep - PageOneKentucky and BareFootandProgressive both had it last week.
Much, MUCH funnier and more ridiculous than Josh implies.
I've been anti-Lunsford on anti-DINO grounds and predicting a McConnell win since January, but Media Czech at Barefoot is right - Mitch is imploding even worse than McCain.
A real Obama landslide might take Mitch out, but a landslide is what it's going to take.
October 27, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know I know (I'm originally from Lexington). I still have some Woodford Reserve ready to go.
October 27, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man after my own heart! Woodford Reserve, for you champagne-slurping heathens, is one of the top three sippin' bourbons in Kentucky.
Smooth enough to drink straight; too fine to adulterate with even ice.
Oh, and Go Wildcats!
October 27, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, you've got to deal with all those skootches who will jump up and down for being overconfident. Or worse, for jeopardizing BigO's victory by making his workers get all complacent-like.
October 27, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Totally agree on both points. Todd have been *extremely* careful not to put Obama above 270 even when it was obvious that he has been for some time.
To a degree, he's being "carefully" not to call the race.
But I also agree that the media, including Todd, wants this to be a Close Race.
On the "stealing" point, I think people are correct. The election is moving out of the range where it can be stolen. Places like IN and NC trending Blue kills that off. They would need to steal so many states that it's not even funny. If you think the hype over Acorn was bad, wait for an election where 5-7 states are stolen. If it was just CO or OH, they probably could get away with it.
John
October 27, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, why the continued obsession with Ohio and Florida? I know the answer, but is seems like everyone is stuck discussing the last election.
Any look at the polls shows that in a narrow election scenario Obama's path to the White House will be through Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico.
Plus, a scenario in which Obama loses Penn but wins Colorado and Virginia sounds like, well, ridiculous speculation. There has been exactly one poll in Penn in the past month with Obama under 50% and that one had Obama up by 8. McCain has never polled over 49 in any Penn polls going back to the Revered Wright/Bitter days. And that was one 49% in early April from a Republican pollster.
If there are some internals that show something different in Penn, please show it. Though Obama/Biden non-pressence in Penn seems to be pointing in other directions. And I don't expect you to blow smoke up our bums. But it seems the only reason Penn is being brought up is because McCain wants it brought up.
The real story seems to be that McCain can win Ohio, Florida, NC, Indiana, Missouiri and Virginia and still lose the election.
October 27, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
O my god that is just music to my soul -
October 27, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Totally agree: the election has been stuck this way for weeks. Only the media and the right wing true believers think otherwise. It's now a case of GOTV. The votes are there. Let's get them out!
October 27, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another VA poll out today (VCU) has Obama up 11!!!!! MOE is +/-4. Without VA McCain is lost....
October 27, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
BVD is my secret twin.
October 27, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great minds, like, think. Y'know?
October 27, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I for one am not going to be happy if this election comes down to a Nevada squeaker. If by 8:00 EST, PA and either Ohio or Florida hasn't gone to Obama, I will die. Die I tell you.
When I hear people saying that we can lose PA, OH, and FL and still win, I wanna scream. If we lose those states, that will mean that the election is trending across the board in McCain's favor. And the trend would very likely affect CO and NV as well. Why not. How can anyone be so blase about this.
We have to win PA and at least one of the other two. What a horrible night it will be if we don't.
(This from another tread. It's more appropriate here.)
October 27, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
We do not "have to win" PA. Will it be a tighter, more difficult victory if we don't? Of course. But there are still paths to 270 without.
On the other hand, if McCain loses either OH and FL, he's done.
October 27, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
People talk as if a loss of PA would be a completely insular event, as if it would not indicate a more far-reaching trend. I don't buy that. If PA were to flip, a lot of other states would likely flip with it. In theory of course -- i.e., counting numbers on one's fingers -- is all looks very plausible, if, if, and if. In reality, not so much. PA is sensitive to and reflects national trends, just like every other state.
And wouldn't you know, here it is Monday of the last full week of the campaign, and the polls are contracting right on cue. The TPM Tracker shows Obama in 6 point territory this morning. With eight days to go and the MSM slavering for a horse race...
F**k! The main question now is: will I survive this?
October 27, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good god.
Ignoring you now.
October 27, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh I see. Not enough cheering. Hey, we're winning in 10 different ways everyone! Can't lose! No Way! Yippy! Hurrah! Jump up and down for joy! It's a done deal!
I'm not saying we will loss PA, OH, and FL. I'm saying it's foolish to think that we could lose all three and everything else (VA, CO, NV, etc.) would remain the same. Plus, like it or not, the polls do show a contraction today. Which isn't to say that won't rebound tomorrow, of course.
On the whole, way too much over-confidence, swagger, and braggadocio going on here. But then that's just my temperament. Which of course isn't allowed by website cheerleaders.
October 27, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
O for god's sake - no one can so much as whisper that they have confidence without 15 of y'all jumping all over us.
If you want to worry your way through the next 9 days be my guest.
But I don't want to sit here and lose for 9 days just so I win on the 10th - it still feels like shit when you lose no matter how "prepared" you might be.
October 27, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
By the same token, confidence and swagger apparently isn't allowed by website handwringers. Gotta have something to worry about, I suppose.
October 27, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just think your level of concern and worry is unnecessary and, to be frank, annoying. But, by all means, carry on. Please don't let me stop you.
October 27, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Still haven't explained how we could loss PA, OH, and FL and it not affect other races, not reflect something else going on across the board. That sounds implausible to be. I'm holding out for the best case scenario, not really having much faith in the worst.
October 27, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because the demographics of PA (specifically the Appalachia areas that would presumably turn the state to McCain) aren't the same as the demos in places like Colorado or Nevada or Virginia.
October 27, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a cool and reasoned comment. Totally resisted the temptation to hyperbole. Kinda reminds me of BigO :-)
October 27, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't mind the caution. (I only get annoyed when folks start saying the Obama campaign is inept, etc., based on a minor polling fluctuation when there's an entire campaign as evidence to the contrary.) But I don't think the national trend argument is that simple. McCain is going all out in PA and targeting a particular demographic. To say that some success with these targeted attacks will necessarily spill over into states like CO and NV may not be a logical conclusion. Even much of his national message at this point isn't meant for a national audience. It's just free airtime for the people he does want to reach. I think the "battleground" states most susceptible to McCain's current attacks are PA, OH, and NC. But I think organization will make the difference.
October 27, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the scenario that's remotely possible has McCain somehow winning where racism could still be an issue, the Rust Belt, Appalachia and Florida...The idea would be that McCain could win in those places, but in the Mtn. West and in the exurbs of VA he has done enough to close the deal.
October 27, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Basically we are just bringing up the nightmare scenario, and still finding a way to 270.
October 27, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
We're not going to lose PA.
Someone had a good point that PA was a faint by Axelrod and others to get McCain to piss his money down the drain in an expensive state to try to win. That includes the "Internal Democratic Poll" that showed the race tighter than people thought. All bullshit.
John
October 27, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where has Howard Dean been, and doesn't he get a lot of credit for the way this campaign has been going? He was kind of the grandfather for the grass roots, internet as a valid and useful tool, wasn't he? I just don't see him much in the news or on the talking head shows.
October 27, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
DAMN STRAIGHT!
Thanks for reminding me to finish work on the "Howard was RIGHT!" sign I'm taking to the Obama victory party here Tuesday.
October 27, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
He'll be around for the celebrating and should certainly take a big old bow. He's earned it.
October 27, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.politicususa.com/en/Obama-Early-Voting
In New Mexico, it's Democrats 56%, Republicans $33 early voting, compared to 50-38 in 2004.
Obamanos!
October 27, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow - last night I heard that in Bernallilo Co. it was 35,000 Democrats have voted early vs. 15,000 Repugs. I hadn't seen figures for the whole state.
October 27, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
McSame up only 4 pts in ARIZONA! How sweet would that be.
October 27, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't John McCain close the deal in Arizona?
October 27, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS JUST IN: With a little more than a week left, yet another MSM outlet forced to concede race not "tight as a tick." Up next" Water--is it really wet?
October 27, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
You cracked me up with that one.
But I'm sure they could find a way. We need a blog for MSM conflict story suggestions.
Time... does it really fly?
October 27, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sometimes. It flies when you don't want it to and crawls when you would give anything to advance.
;)
October 27, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
When I was at UNC Law School, we had a professor who could actually make time stop. You'd look at the clock an hour after class started, and lo and behold, no time had passed.
We were pretty sure that Dean Smith used this professor's powers when he needed to put 18 points on the board with two minutes to go.
October 27, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
The earth: why do Democrats deny that it's flat?
October 27, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
I do love you.
October 27, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Back atcha!
October 27, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is Tom Friedman a Democrat?
October 27, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Time flies like an arrow.
Fruit flies like a banana. (Seen on T-shirt)
Tom Friedman is a fruit fly.
October 27, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
If one more person worries about Penn they are going to get a cyber punch to the neck.
Obama's lead in the RCP average is 11.2 in Penn.
Obama's lead in New Hampshire is 8.7.
Obama's lead in Virginia is 7.7
Obama's lead in Colorado is 6.5
Obama's lead in Iowa is 11.8
Obama's lead in New Mexico is 8.4
And for some f-ing perspective, Obama's lead in Ohio is 6.0. McCain has broken 50 in any poll in Ohio twice since the 9/1 and both times it was in a Rasmussen poll in September. Meanwhile, Obama has broken 50 in 7 polls since 10/17.
Recognize!
October 27, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Word up!
Rep yo city, baby -
my playas run this bitch - that's my mantra.
October 27, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you.
Some people are getting really insufferable.
October 27, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's going to be a really long week.
October 27, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's
gonna
be
a
L O N G
week.
October 27, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever. Polls are NOT votes.
You've heard it before: take nothing for granted.
October 27, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me try this again in English
And for some f-ing perspective, Obama's lead in Ohio is 6.0. McCain has only broken 50 in Ohio twice since 9/1 and both times it was in a September Rasmussen poll. Meanwhile, Obama has broken 50 in 7 polls since 10/17.
October 27, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Vote! Vote! Vote! Vote! Vote!
There will be plenty of time to celebrate (hopefully!) come 11/5. We need to GOTV! We need everyone to focus on closing the deal!
This is a message from The Coalition to Point of the Obvious. :-)
October 27, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
O if I hadn't voted, I wouldn't bother and I'm thinking of asking for my ballot back since Obama doesn't need me.
Come the fuck on people. There is no one person on this board or reading it who is going to blow off voting.
Save it for people who don't vote - we do, obviously.
October 27, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tena's right. But if you spammed the network comment boards telling them to vote, we'll forgive you. Know your audience!
October 27, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right. There'll be plenty of time to celebrate, but I'm starting as soon as I leave the voting booth on Tuesday night. What's the best watch-party you've heard about? We're doing a pajama-party wearing Obama Pajamas. After he wins and we're pooped from partying, we'll be suitably dressed to sleep (if that's even possible).
October 27, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
But what if Obama loses New York?!
October 27, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, he'll find it right quick. Prolly just hiding underneath CA and IL.
October 27, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well then stay off Central Park West, because I'll be jumping from the balcony of the penthouse where I'll be partying, watching returns. But don't bet on it. Planning to stay up there all night and drink martinis, descending by elevator only.
October 27, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is clear is that Team Obama never relied on any specific state or narrow group of states to the exclusion of others. This appears to be a basic part of all plans, and justifies all the miles traveled in the primaries. A momentum is building that is a product of vast number of voters. McCain shall not run the table nor will this election be decided by one state. The Republicans are broken, the question is the depth at which to place there institutional coffin. Enjoy it folks this time is the burial of forty years of madness...........
October 27, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Chuck Todd is awesome. Period.
That said, I'm not going to count McCain out -- no matter how much his running-mate tries to sabatoge his campaign...
http://thepajamapundit.com/
October 27, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have to say, I think moving Arizona to "toss-up" is a little excessive.
But Pollster does now have Georgia as a toss-up!
October 27, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think its the Hispanic vote that is making it a toss-up.
October 27, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
How's this for 'bang for your buck'? The GOP pays pennies to launch a slimy robocall campaign in a couple states, and Politico dutifully amplifies their 'buy' by loudly proclaiming it to any and all of their news feeds like Yahoo here. Talk about free advertising:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081027/pl_politico/14975
Remind me again about our 'liberal media'?
October 27, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
We're lucky none of us is running the Obama campaign. The hand wringing and mood swings here would have been enough to make any campaign so erratic that McCain's would have looked straight talk by comparison.
But maybe we should all be afraid ... aren't the fundies playing the prayer card. Does that trump our GOTV card?
October 27, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
October 27, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think they should start praying the night before. Fast and pray. Without ceasing. Not even for a second! And you what Jesus says about prayer. "Go into your closet and pray." Definitely don't leave the closet till the vote is in.
October 27, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
We watched a hard fought battle in Pennsylvania during the primaries and with a whole lot of money spent over six weeks, Obama was able to change the numbers. McCain doesn't have the money or the time. Pennsylvania is not going to turn red in a week.
October 27, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has a chance to steal Arizona from McCain. That's the real story.
The hispanic vote is coming out strong for Obama.
October 27, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
That has been fascinating to watch. Very gratifying.
October 27, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see lots of obessive hand-wringing here this morning and I'm right there with you.
Waiting for Nov. 4th http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry-david/waiting-for-nov-4th_b_137029.html
I found this bit of comic relief to help.
Enjoy! 8 more Days!
October 27, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait a minute. . . his name is Chuck "TODD"? Related to infamous hoaxer Ashley Todd??!! This PROVES she was a Democratic plant!!
;-)
October 27, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
todd palin, too!
October 27, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Todd as in d00d 0ne.
October 27, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why does everybody say if he loses "Pennsylvania?" He is way up in all of the polls.
October 27, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can draw your electoral map on the site below:
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/
I just did it and gave the Moose Queen and the Grump every state I thought they'd have a good shot at, including Nevada and Florida.
When I was done, Obama was trouncing them! Wow! Then I gave the two of them Ohio for laughs, and Obama was still easily winning. So, hell, I three the bad guys Penna. as well, and they *still* lost! Try it, it's amusing. I can't easiy how McCain can win. I guess that's what the pundits are telling us!
October 27, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Latest foot-in-mouth event from Caribou Barbie, from the AP:
"LEESBURG, Va. – GOP Vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is meeting with the Israeli ambassador to the U.S. as part of a three-city tour in Virginia designed to upend Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican John McCain in a state that hasn't backed a Democratic White House hopeful since 1964.
Palin greeted ambassador Sallai Meridor and apologized for not being able to meet with him sooner. She told the ambassador: "We look forward to ... working with your Jewish agency.""
Palin, what a maroon! (Apologies to Bugs Bunny!)
October 27, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know what is with you people who want the polls to look so favorable for Obama. As far as I'm concerned, the more people are scared, the better. Be afraid. Be very afraid. Then volunteer, donate, and vote.
Unless you're tying your self-worth or your emotional well-being to Obama's standing in the polls, it shouldn't matter to you how the MSM chooses to hedge their maps.
October 27, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
We aren't discussing whether we'll volunteer, donate, or vote. We would all do that whether Obama is up a zillion or down a zillion. The fact is that we want to do that not because we are afraid or scared of a McCain win, but because it's what we believe.
Meanwhile we are enjoying the prospect of the end of the Reagan/Bush disaster and the chance that those clouds of fear will be rolled back for a good long time. That's something to have fun with over the next week is it not?
October 27, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT:
She actually said that?
October 27, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Tito the Builder"? "Joe the Plumber"? What's next Colonel Mustard?
October 27, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pacr after the election is over it will Tito the builder in the living room with the wrench
October 28, 2008 12:37 AM | Reply | Permalink