More Polls Show Obama Ahead In Battleground States
A new set of polls from Rasmussen shows Barack Obama further dominating in key swing states -- though McCain retains an edge in Ohio for this particular firm:
• Colorado: Obama ahead 51%-45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, Obama had a narrower 49%-48% edge.
• Florida: Obama up 52%-45%, outside the ±3% margin of error. Last week, the two candidates were tied at 47% each.
• Missouri: Obama up 50%-47%, within the ±3% margin of error. Three weeks ago, McCain was ahead 51%-46%.
• Ohio: McCain with a 48%-47% edge, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, McCain was up 47%-46%, pretty much the same as now.
• Virginia: Obama up 50%-48%, within the ±3% margin of error, not all that different from Obama's 50%-47% lead a week ago.
All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004, and all totaled they have 80 electoral votes. If John McCain were to lose even one from the Republican column, winning would become extremely difficult.
THIS
October 6, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 6, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 6, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
TERRORIST!!
[oops, sorry, I thought I was at a McCain rally...]
October 6, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL.
October 6, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I bet you're one of those evil sleeper trolls.
October 6, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh no you don't! THAT'S ME, DAMMIT!
October 6, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, well, HQ is very happy with your results at TPM quite frankly. People are giddy with Obama's successes in the polls and downright rude about both McCain and Palin. You may just be called back for further training.
October 6, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gosh doggoneit, that was suppose to be "isn't very happy," you know.
October 6, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 6, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
(yay got the right word this time!)
October 6, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 6, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
GREAT
October 6, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
!!!JohnSidneyMcMENTUM™!!!!
October 6, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
NOW THIS IS AN AD I CAN BELIEVE IN........
USING McCain's own words against mr McSAME!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHW-RO1_WN0&eurl=http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/10/06/dnc-uses-mccains-own-words-against-negative-attack-ads/
October 6, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fantastic ad - is it actually running on TV?
October 7, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ohio is just unbelievable. And they have suffered so, wow, talk about thick headed.
October 6, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
If things continue to trend Obama's way in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri and New Hampshire, Ohio will be merely an after thought.
Not taking Ohio for granted, but noting that they way things are shaking out, it may not be relevant to the ultimate outcome.
October 6, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reporting from Ohio Central!
(Literally...I've been in Columbus for over 2 years now.)
We'll be voting for Obama. If only those pennsyltuckians in southwest Ohio would wake the hell up (I'm looking at you, you OH-02 voters for Schmidt).
~
October 6, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
if,
I've been here for over 50 years, and I have never seen a Dem have a better organization, boots on the ground, voter reg. and yardsigns than the Obama campaign for a Presidential race.
We WILL win Ohio!
And I get pissed off when I see people diss us, or discount polls that show Obama ahead here.
So fair warning to everyone, if you REALLY want to piss me off, call Ohio McCain country, or other such bullcrap.
October 6, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe the Buckeyes will do it.
Here is the ABC poll that has Obama ahead +6
http://www.abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=5963651&page=1
October 6, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks acamus.
Here's hoping we can pull the Hoosier state into the Obama column too and make it a Big 10 state sweep for Obama!
October 6, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Big 10 (11) carries Obama to White House on their shoulders.
October 6, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
My mom just moved back to Ohio where most of the family is. My feeling from poll data and knowledge of the state is that Ohio is close but heading towards Obama. It's a somewhat culturally conservative and reluctant to go for him, but will see through McCain before the end. Especially once they realize he's not a maverick but is basically GW Bush all over again.
i.e. another 3rd generation dynasty, born on 3rd base and thought he hit a triple. Also has the same lack of curiosity, same problems with corruption and ties to power and nepotism, and same overwhelming personal ambition to out-do his father and grandfather.
And that McCain, the real McCain, is so NOT Ohio.
October 6, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why was early voting so low in turnout? Is that concerning?
October 7, 2008 1:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm very disappointed in the latest poll I saw of the Schmidt-Wulsin race. Everything I've seen and read about Wulsin indicates that she's a quality candidate. Is there something I'm missing? Is she a poor campaigner? Does she start operating on random reporters during press conferences?
October 6, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, Wulsin is a great candidate, it's just that the district is one of the most Neanderthal you'll see this side of the Mississippi.
We have an excellent chance of winning at least the 15th (Kilroy) and Regula's old seat in Ohio
October 6, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was so close in 2006, though. I thought in this year's climate Wulsin would be doing better.
That'll teach me to become attached to candidates thousands of miles away from me. And on that topic, Sean Tevis for Kansas State House of Representatives! Go Sean!
October 6, 2008 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
ABC has Obama ahead in Ohio by six, 51-45
October 6, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I recall Nate's comments over at the 538, Rasmussen has been a shade under Obama's numbers in the primary season and the other national ones in the post primary. Less an outliner than perhaps a few points behind.
John
October 6, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah... head over to the 538, scroll down the right hand side and see that Rasmussen has long shown McCain better in OH than some of the other polls. It's not the only one, but it's been pretty consistent.
Again... I wouldn't throw the poll under the bus. But there's been enough other polling in OH over the past week to feel very positive about it. Nate has it +2.5, and the trending strongly to Obama.
John
October 6, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
So house effect not outlier?
October 6, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
new poll from abc news shows obama up by 6 in ohio.... ras never had obama leading in their polls but abc is another trend of polls out of ohio showing obama leading...http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=5963651&page=1
October 6, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amelie,
Pardon my English, but Ras is full of shit about Ohio.
We're going to win Ohio.
I guaran-fucking-tee it!
October 6, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
:)
October 6, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
loving the fact that Obama is staying at or above the 50% of these polls. Keep on truckin!
October 6, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
That Ohio number is bunk. It's like Ras is phoning a completely different electorate than every other major pollster.
Apart from that... HOLY SHIT!
And to top it off, Charlie Cook has moved MO from 'Lean McCain' to 'Tossup'.
October 6, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Tyler!
October 6, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great news.
October 6, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
MISSOURI!!!!!
We're gonna do this!!!
October 6, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're d@#^ right we are!
October 6, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting article on the grassroots effort for Obama in Time.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847473,00.html
October 6, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack Obama is doing the smart thing by focusing on the economy and letting his handlers and the surrogates do the counterattacking. Earlier this afternoon on CNN aka FOX, listeners where emailing and phoning in the saying they detest the negative attacks and many where accurately accusing McCain of throwing the first punch.
October 6, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
"If John McCain were to lose even one from the Republican column, winning would become extremely difficult."
Understatement can be fun. How about:
If John McCain looses two of these states, a win could be calmly orchestrated by coup d'etat.
October 6, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
At the moment it looks like Obama has all of Kerry's states, plus NM and IA. He just needs one of these.
And people in FL haven't had time to learn about McCain's plan to go after medicare. Which Obama is sure to bring up at the debate tomorrow night.
October 6, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, that will go over like a lead balloon.
October 6, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or like, as a drummer once said about an up and coming band, a lead zepplin.
October 6, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like that :)
October 6, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Moonie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 6, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Wha'?...I did bloody wha' to the 'otel room?"
October 6, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yea Missouri!
October 6, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is too wonderful for words!
The momentum is now I think a juggernaut - I don't think it's stoppable.
McLame is going to lose it Tuesday night. The Keating 5 thing didn't go down well with him - he seemed unprepared for it. Maybe he really thinks Obama won't do that - hahahahahaha!
Best hustler of all time.
October 6, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suggest a new theme song for the Obama campaign: Swagga Like Us (TI--Paper Trail).
October 6, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oo - that's ill - I love it!
October 6, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought you might appreciate the song.
October 6, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup -- and that's incredibly stupid of them. In this financial crisis and they didn't see this coming? They panicked and came out in a conference call and said "He did nothing wrong"? Unreal.
October 6, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
No wonder McCain jumped ship from Michigan. He has to protect Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Colorado.
October 6, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's no way he can keep ahold of more than a couple of these states. There's only so much time and TV time.
October 6, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good luck with that - he lost Florida today when it got to be public that he'd pay for his health care plan by gutting medicare and medicaid.
Boy that was a bright idea.
October 6, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
The man is brillant I tell you, BRILLLLLANT!
October 6, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like a 15 watt oven bulb covered with the remains of an explosive chicken pot pie.
October 6, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that brillant.
October 6, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
thanks for the visual image you should write a book or something on a restroom wall.
October 6, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good Lord, you just gave me the best idea for a book. Write a novel as a collage of photographs of the paragraphs written on bathroom walls across the world.
Definitely going to have to save that for when I win lotto, quit my office job and go back to university to study art.
October 7, 2008 2:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I tell you what, talk of cutting medicare is the proverbial third rail in American politics and McCain knows that. The fact that they went ahead and took that approach leads me to the conclusion that they already know they are going to lose and are just trying to go out in a blaze of wingnut glory. Look forard to a lot of aggressive talk of cutting capital gains tax rates, and missile defense shields and cutting farm subsidies and a host of similar, electorally unpopular Heritage foundation pet projects. I think that they are just hoping at this point to rile up the base and chip away at Obama's favorables enough to start a wave to retake at least one house of the congress in 2010.
October 6, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's really the only way it makes sense. If McCain truly had any guts, from a conservative pov he would have voted "no" when all those earmarks were added to the bill. His problem is that is that his strategy clung to long to the having one foot in the "go for the independents" door and one foot in the "go for the base" door.
October 6, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
As Chuck Todd put it, all the swing states are now Red States. That is not good for news for McCain, Palin and the GOP.
October 6, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me thinks you have that backwards. All the red states are now swing states.
October 6, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's lost Va, too - so protect what? He would have to get back up there and he can't.
Colorado is close.
October 6, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, Missouri!!!
October 6, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
It really doesn't get much better than this ... until McCain gets embarrassed tomorrow night and the economy continues to tank.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 6, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
NBC Poll
Obama 49, McCain 43
If this is worse poll, you are rocking.
October 6, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Latest WSJ/NBC: O 49, M 43.
Last WSJ/NBC numbers: O 48, M 46 from 9/12 - 9/22.
Oh, and Pollster.com JUST TURNED FLORIDA BLUE, and estimates that Obama now has 296 electoral votes.
YES.WE.CAN.
October 6, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes We Can, Indeed.
October 6, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
O my I'm going to break into tears!
We having elected Barack Obama -
October 6, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am dreading the debates. I swear, I should just drink through the whole thing so I can relax. I saw you can't wait. Wish I were able to feel that way. And Brokaw drives me nuts. Who is moderating the third debate?
October 6, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
O my gosh - I was ready to jump out of my skin last week.
No more - I can't wait! I wish it was tonight. McLame is going to go all McNasty - I can't wait!
October 6, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with Tina. I was a wreck before the first two. No more.
Bring it on, old man.
October 6, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bob Schiefer(sp)
October 6, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, I couldn't remember.
October 6, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The even worse Bob "STOP PICKING ON WAR HERE MCCAIN" Shieffer.
Here's how I've handled the debates. I get a nice bottle of wine, I mute the sound and turn on CNN. When the squiggles go down for my guys, I change channels. If the squiggles go down for the McNasty Tina Fey team, I drink, and continue watching. If the squiggles go up for McNasty and Tina Fey, I drink more, and then I change channels.
Last week, I alternated between "Children of Men" and the debate. I think my strategy is why Joe Biden won.
: )
October 6, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just hang out at Sadly, No! and snark with the DFHs.
~
October 6, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Alright. That's my plan of action.
October 6, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I put it on C-Span and snark here.
October 6, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bingo!
October 6, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I played Palin bingo, it was so fun, maverick was the first word to be filled out on my list.
October 6, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
The third debate is being moderated by Bob Schieffer, McSame's good buddy.
October 6, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was he the one that screwed over Wes Clark?
October 6, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, he certainly was. There is no question that Schieffer is a McCain buddy.
October 6, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just hit the mute button whenever McCain is talking, and read about it afterwards. No point in raising your blood pressure for nothing. If it looks like he's having a meltdown, you can turn it back on. :-)
October 6, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is pretty much what I do :)
October 6, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's change in the electoral map we can believe in.
October 6, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Ras has, when leaners are included, Obama 300 EV, McCain 174, with OH, VA NC NV and MO as toss ups. They've put FL CO and NM into Obama's camp.
October 6, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
CO too!!!!
October 6, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama:Press Avail in Asheville, North Carolina
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TWjfKgR1fM
October 6, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
This was wonderful. Once again, he calms me down, makes me believe we can work our way out of this mess, and totally makes McCain appear SO out of touch. Thanks!
October 6, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen.
October 6, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
He nailed it again!!!
There is simply no comparison between Obama's articulate, well-reasoned approach and McCain. None.
October 6, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
And what is the nice icing on the cake, that this is a FOX News/Ras Poll. It must sting for them to have report that their own polls are showing it's all over for McCain.
October 6, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
fox will hate it last week hannity and o'reilly were saying sarah palin won the debate and it will show in the polls today they said mcsame will be even with obama or bewteen one-three points down
just shows what they are like really fair and balanced my ass
October 6, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
John McCain's Deep Insidious Kremlin Ties, and How They Helped Russia Gain A Strategic Foothold In Western Europe.
Read all about it, and click it on up, for other readers to discover. Thanks.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/10/mccains-very-deep-kremlin-ties.php
October 6, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I ain't a-scared of Bob Schieffer, and I ain't a-scared of Tom Brokaw.
And I bet Barack Obama isn't scared of them, either.
October 6, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
And when push came to shove, Gibson and Couric suprised us. I'm not holding my breath, but who knows.
October 6, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, was he the guy that screwed over Wes Clark?
October 6, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know. He threw nothing but marshmallows at Bush in the last debate. He's a horrible old lickspittle, but I don't know about the Wes Clark thing.
October 6, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he was the interviewer when Wes said a fighter pilot doesn't necessarily make a Commander-In-Chief.
October 6, 2008 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
He most certainly was.
October 6, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRwsk56lN44
October 6, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good friends with Bush. Surprised Kerry agreed to him moderating the debate, but in hindsight it shouldn't have.
October 6, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, he was the one. Luckily, Schief has to keep it to domestic issues.
October 6, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I expect McNasty to continue his anger tomorrow. As for Sarah Palin, madam baracuda, i am sure he is going to continue her attack dog role.
October 6, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't barracuda an attack fish?
October 6, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
ouch...nice...lol
She's definitely a fish.
October 6, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Supporter yells "Kill Him!" at Palin rally
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/06/in_fla_palin_goes_for_the_roug.html
"Okay, so Florida, you know that you're going to have to hang onto your hats," Sarah Palin told a rally of a few thousand here this morning, "because from now until Election Day it may get kind of rough."
You betcha. And the person dishing out the roughest stuff at the moment is Sarah Palin.
"I was reading my copy of the New York Times the other day," she said.
"Booooo!" replied the crowd.
"I knew you guys would react that way, okay," she continued. "So I was reading the New York Times and I was really interested to read about Barack's friends from Chicago."
It was time to revive the allegation, made over the weekend, that Obama "pals around" with terrorists, in this case Bill Ayers, late of the Weather Underground. Many independent observers say Palin's allegations are a stretch; Obama served on a Chicago charitable board with Ayers, now an education professor, and has condemned his past activities.
"Now it turns out, one of his earliest supporters is a man named Bill Ayers," Palin said.
"Boooo!" said the crowd.
"And, according to the New York Times, he was a domestic terrorist and part of a group that, quote, 'launched a campaign of bombings that would target the Pentagon and our U.S. Capitol,'" she continued.
"Boooo!" the crowd repeated.
"Kill him!" proposed one man in the audience.
October 6, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have to be careful how we look at things like '"Kill him!" proposed one man in the audience.' We need to call the GOP on their false generalizations about terrorist ties, but we should not make their mistake. There are crazy people in this world, and their support of a candidate does not reflect on that candidate.
We need to look at issues, not associations.
October 6, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
TIME: "Can Obama's Grass-Roots Army Win Missouri?"
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847473,00.html
October 6, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everyone should read the Time article on Missouri.
This is exactly why the Obama campaign is so exceptional and will be regarded as the most brilliantly planned and executed presidential campaign in ages, perhaps ever. There will be whole books written just about the conception, methodology, execution and discipline of this campaign. It will be the new paradigm for political campaigns.
October 6, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. And how MO GOP scoffed and laughed at Obama's team in the beginning. They ain't doing that now.
October 6, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, how was your birthday? (Oct 2)! Mine was the best ever!
Senator Biden gave me the BEST birthday present when he gave Palin that look right after he got finish clownin McCain's health plan, callin it the ultimate bridge to no where.
....He was like B@#$%* please!
October 6, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too! My day started out kind of rocky but by the time the debate was over and the snap polls came out, it ended up being one of the best birthdays ever. Missed you! - Happy Birthday a bit late!
October 6, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thx! Happy belated birthday to you!
October 6, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re CNN Poll: Obama's lead increases when third parties are added
Obama 53
McCain 42
Barr 2
Nader 2
October 6, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty much every poll I've seen indicates when the others are included, Obama lead increases.
October 6, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the anti Obama vote. They take away from McCain's gains.
October 6, 2008 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have noticed the same pattern: votes for third party candidates diminish McCain and boost Obama.
October 7, 2008 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Kill him!" proposed one man in the audience. That's terrorism the GOP can believe in.
October 6, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's the likelihood that the people at tomorrow's town hall who are selected to ask questions will be McCain plants? There have been suggestions that in prior town hall meetings McCain's handlers have done just that.
October 6, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a good question. And is Brokaw getting to choose which question is asked, and then calls on the person? Or are they just selected from the crowd at random? And who decides which internet questions are selected?
October 6, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Brokaw chooses, I read that a few minutes ago.
October 6, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh well. It'll be hard to find an economy question that slants for McCain.
October 6, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well since we know there was that pathetic question about flag pins during the horrible Charlie Gibson/George Stephanapalous-moderated Hillary/Barrack debate, I think it is a safe bet that there will be some heavily slanted questions in favor of McSame. Ideally, the questioners would be true undecideds. Don't count on it. And Tom Brokaw, the moderator on Tuesday night, is clearly a McSame admirer.
October 6, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
If so, then Obama has an added burden -- stay on message (economy, economy, economy) but also be ready to deal with bias.
October 6, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fifty-three percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing Obama for president, with 45 percent supporting McCain.
In this poll, George W. Palin's negatives have gone from 21% on her roll-out to 40% now. I hope she keeps running her mouth ...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/06/poll.of.polls/index.html
October 6, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain had another 6 point move downward on Intrade today.
October 6, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is a victim of over-regulated Intrade markets.
October 6, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
October 6, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is at 69.5.
Will we see him hit 70 tomorrow? I think so.
October 6, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the EV vote # for Intrade has Obama at 353.
October 6, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm no longer making bets against the rightwing press. They've totally stunned me more than once during this campaign.
So I'm not going to say Brokaw will throw it to McLame yet.
And as for Schieffer - when is that debate? McLame keeps bleeding numbers like this and I question whether he'll bother.
October 6, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's on the 15th.
October 6, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correct.
October 6, 2008 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Turning on the TV tomorrow to watch the debate. Making Corned Beef and Cabbage in Honor of the steer and the COW!
October 6, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to chuckle at how Republicans are retreating into the backwoods. For years, they've decried the evil east and west coast. Now, they've added the signature city of the heartland to their axis of evil.
October 6, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Next up: St. Louis?
October 6, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Denver..
October 6, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could Butte and Boise be not that far behind?
October 6, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nate Silver from 538.com is on Countdown right now.
October 6, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama campaign is right on top of things, I tell ya. Most of you probably know that Obama has a "channel" all his own on Dish Network. From what I've seen they've been playing his 2 minute economic ad and they've also been playing the film that ran before his acceptance speech.
Anyhoo, I'm watching Olbermann just now and Obama's commercial about healthcare comes on (the one with the two arrows) and a little message comes up in the corner of the screen that says "Press Select Now to see Obama's Plan" and then when you press select - it takes you straight to Obama's channel. How awesome is that? His campaign is using every new technology at their disposal. I just LOVE IT!!!!
October 6, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meanwhile, back at the McCain ranch...
October 6, 2008 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those Rethug deadenders in Ohio are a stubborn bunch. I have a mental image of them trudging ahead like those Omish horses with the blinders on. (No offense to the Omish, btw)
October 6, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard someone else today remarking on the same thing I've run into with life long Republicans. They can agree with you on every point and still tell you they're going to vote Republican. It's become part of their identity. That can change but they need to get a lot of peer pressure to change and unfortunately that's why those churches are so useful to Republicans (and those Catholic bishops, may God forgive them).
October 6, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well by the same token, there are Democrats who feel exactly the same way about voting for Republicans.
Yellow dog Democrats? Democrats who would vote for a yellow dog if that's who had the D -
I'm almost one - not quite, but these last 8 years has caused me to pull a straight ticket every time.
October 6, 2008 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
That Bishop should be horse whipped. What crap.
October 6, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keith is just on a total snark and outrage rant about Palin.
October 6, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wish I could see it way out here in international land! I miss Keith!
October 7, 2008 8:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's an article on how the debate will run tomorrow - http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/10/mccain_obama_deal_puts_limits.html
Brokaw selects which questions will be asked, but he or the questioner cannot pose a follow-up and Brokaw cannot comment on the answer given.
For this debate there is a 31-page "memorandum of understanding" that was negotiated to by both camps.
October 6, 2008 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
31 pages for a debate? Holy shit -
October 6, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess there is a lot to account for, given the audience interaction and such. Plus there's plenty of extraneous rules...like they're not allowed to bring in some written pledge, march over to the other opponent, and try to get them to sign it a la Rick Lazio in the NY Senate debate.
October 6, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Repubs might not know how to govern, but they sure know how to win at all costs. I hope the Obama camp and the Democratic party is getting ready to avoid fraud and voter intimidation
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95440887
October 6, 2008 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
The figures I read here are strange! I understand they're from Fox/Rasmussen, but the aggregate number from RealClearPolitics has Obama up in OH by 3.5 for the period from 9/24-10/05. Only two of their polls have Obama down, and that was only by 1 point!
October 6, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
RealClearPolitics is a winger site.
October 6, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
every nation deserves it's leaders.
that said relax and take a breather from the permanent Obama-advocacy (i am looking at you Tina)
if what happen to wall street and the near collapse of Americas financial market did not slap some sanity back in to the voters head then nothing will.
If America votes for Bible spice and old spice then redneck inertia have caught up with the coastal-intelligentsias enlightenment project
October 6, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
O goddamn it - that isn't my intent.
I call it like I see it - I'm not stretching. It's not deliberate advocacy.
sheeeeeeit!
October 6, 2008 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Geez these polls make my heart skip a beat. I must admit I'm nervous, but I wouldn't want it any other way.
I'm surprised how much I'm invested in this election.
Let me take a deeeeeeeeeep breath....
October 6, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
“Never retreat, never explain, never apologize. Get the thing done and let them howl.”
-Nellie McClung.
This quote epitomizes the Obama campaign, and Miss Tena.
October 6, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love you! Do you have snow on mountaintops there? We do now.
And I was wondering - Albuquerque lost power in 4 regions the night it rained and the the next morning a whole lot of the Taos Valley went down. Did y'all lose any power?
October 6, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
snow on mount baldy and the ski basin. no power loss. i'm going to puerto vallarta friday. yihaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
October 7, 2008 12:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama went to Keating! Am I late?
http://my.barackobama.com/page/invite/keatingvideo
October 6, 2008 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
A little.
October 6, 2008 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
WISH-TV Indiana Presidential Poll 10/6
Obama 46 McCain 46
http://www.wishtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9134079
Obama will be in Indiana on wednesday.
He is doing a two day bus tour of Ohio starting thursday. Obama will speak at rallies in Dayton, Cincinnati and Portsmouth on Thursday.
October 6, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you know where in Indiana?
October 6, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to get into a whole thing here, but I was just watching Olbermann right now and he had a quick little clip of Palin getting on her plane and she was wearing a skirt that hit right above the knee and then knee-high leather boots. Really? Does that not really sit well with anyone else?
October 6, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why wear a skirt? Cows don't need no stinkin skirt!
October 6, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
wtf, why do I even go to these right wing sites.
Has anyone seen the recent Ann Coulter article?
Biden Secret Service Code Name: 'Assassination Insurance'
by Ann Coulter
10/01/2008
Should she be reported to the Secret Service for stuff like this or did she not cross any boundary?
October 6, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
She should be reported and something should be done, but Ann famously said about Clinton: "The only remaining question is impeachment or assassination."
Used to be IOKIYAR - but I don't think that rule is operative anymore.
I find that very offensive.
October 6, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
… they’re sing'n a different tune…
October 6, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chuck Hagel's wife to endorse Obama
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jl4RIfcVYSklHSEj1aw8kRbQnW8QD93LC03G0
October 6, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
More EXCELLENT NEWS!!! no doubt
October 6, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kewl!
October 6, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now if Hegel himself...
(I can dream can't I)
October 6, 2008 11:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn I misspelled :(
October 6, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Acamus - Indianapolis Indiana.
October 6, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, won't be able to go see him, but good to see him coming here. Even if we don't go blue, if we can divert McCain and Palin's time and resources then I'm happy.
October 6, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT: The following was posted on WaPo in reaction to Sarah Palin's speech, in which she accuses Obama of "palling around" with terrorists.
......
>b Or as someone even better once put it:
I would send out for assistance but there's someone on the signal wire
And the corporation logo is flashing on and off in the sky
They're putting all your names in the forbidden book
I know what they're doing but I don't want to look
You think they're so dumb, you think they're so funny
Wait until they've got you running to the
Night rally, night rally, night rally.
Posted by: DrBB | October 6, 2008 10:40 PM |
October 6, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops.
The first paragraph of the quote was supposed to read:
Well, as someone once put it, "I liked it better in the original German." Or as someone even better once put it: ..... etc.
October 6, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since the VP debate, Palin's favorables have continued their steady slide, while Biden's have jumped. (I wonder if Pat Buchanan still thinks Palin wiped the floor with Joe.)
Using Friday as the baseline in the Kos/Research 200 tracking poll (the last poll based entirely on pre-debate polling), Palin has lost two points in net favorability and is now at minus 12.
Biden has gained seven points and is now +26 -- a point higher than Obama even!
And McCain is at minus 5.
October 6, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
So according to the tracking poll, her unfavorability is now 39%. Her floor is probably about 30% -- how close to that point is she going to be in this cycle?
October 6, 2008 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ugh, it's getting sick.
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/attytood/GOP_hits_rock_bottom_Calls_Obama_in_an_official_release_terrorists_best_friend.html
October 6, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
desperation has its sick side that is for sure.
October 6, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great piece, I followed thread (clicks?) and got this -
+ Convicted felon joins McCain in Pennsylvania
March 14, 2008 10:20 AM
SPRINGFIELD, Pa. -- Among the local dignitaries saluted prior to John McCain's town-hall meeting here: Robert Asher, a Republican National Committeeman from Pennsylvania -- and a felon convicted on public-corruption charges.
Asher, a local power broker who runs a family candy business in nearby Montgomery County, was convicted in 1986 for his involvement in a scheme to bribe public officials to win a no-bid state contract. Asher had raised money for Rudy Giuliani before his withdrawal from the race in late January, and signed on to McCain's campaign in February.
October 7, 2008 12:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
The GA numbers look amazing:
SurveyUSA
9/15: 57-41 McCain
9/29: 52-44 McCain
InsiderAdvantage
9/10: 56-38 McCain
9/30: 50-44 McCain
Research2000 also has it in that same range now: 50-43 McCain.
The Senate race there between Chambliss-Martin is getting a little close for comfort for Chambliss.
This is still a "reach" for Obama, but it's not another sink hole for McCain to defend.
John
October 7, 2008 1:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
One thing I love is the small stuff, and what it my predict. Jessica Yellin on CNN today mentioned that she had called around asking Sec. of States about voter registration.
Last week in Clark county , Nevada 39,000 people signed up to vote.
October 7, 2008 2:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
remember at the end of the primary when Hillary Clinton's racist voters come out of the woodwork, remember Harriet Christiansen, I think this is what is happening with the republicans, they are about to lose they know about it, so bitterness and resentment sets in, in the coming days we will see ugliness, unheard before.
and some republicans would be forced to examine their affiliation with their redneck cohorts.
October 7, 2008 4:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
ICONOCLAST: Bush hometown paper offers endorsement of Obama.
http://www.lonestaricon.com/absolutenm/anmviewer.asp?a=3337&z=290
October 7, 2008 4:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the real problem is that he underestimated just how wacko the right-wing base is. I think he knew from 2000 that it was kind of wacko, but I think the campaign failed to recognize that if they really appealed to the base, they would lose everyone else--even long-time members of their own party. It seems that Bush was the last Republican who could keep together the fiscal wing and the religious wing. That party isn't an umbrella anymore; it's just a right-wing extremist newspaper with racist cartoons propped up over a few people's heads.
At least I hope so.
October 7, 2008 6:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
On GA - we have a terrific ground game here now driven greatly by volunteers. About 30-50 staff still but we had 300 Organizing Fellows all summer getting this organized and at least 135 staff here for over a month before 80 we redeployed to other states.
Voter reg is up and early voting is huge - nearly 200K the first week, 40% African American, anything over 30% in total foe the election overall and GA is neck and neck.
Our volunteer coordinator waited an hour and 20 mins to vote yesterday so the ground game is getting folks out early as well.
It seems like there is a wave coming down from VA, thru NC, SC is likely close (no good polls recently) as we are...
October 7, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think a lot of what happens in Ohio depends on how successful the Obama campaign has been at arranging transportation from college campuses to early voting sites. The Buckeye State has a LOT of colleges and universities. In the last election a lot of the student voters dropped out after being forced to stand in line in the cold and rain for several hours.
October 7, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink