More Confirmation That McCain's Ad Campaign Is Now 100 Percent Negative
As we reported here on Friday, the McCain campaign has shifted nearly all of its ad spending into negative ads by pulling its positive "Original Mavericks" spot and replacing it with an attack ad hitting Obama and his "liberal" allies in Congress.
Today the Wisconsin Advertising Project released new numbers confirming this and offering more detail on just how big the gulf in negativity is between the two campaigns. It finds that while McCain's spending was nearly 100 percent negative during the week ending October 4th, negative attack ads constituted roughly a third of Obama's ad spending.
The Wisconsin project also has a fascinating breakdown of how Obama is swamping McCain in state-by-state spending:
Over the past week, the two campaigns were roughly even in spending in Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign has outspent the McCain campaign by a margin of over 3 to one in Florida, over 2 to 1 in New Hampshire, over 3 to 2 in Nevada, over 8 to 1 in North Carolina, and over 3 to 1 in Virginia
Separately, Biden just made a reference to McCain's 100-percent-negative campaign while speaking in Florida, suggesting this meme may now become a stock reference in his stump speech.
Has McSame given up on NC? Or maybe he just doesn't have the resources to defend it?
October 8, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think they are in disbelief of the prospect that NC could turn blue. Can't blame them for thinking that way but I would have erred on the side of caution earlier. Now? I'm sure NC is going blue.
October 8, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
the ole caught footed syndrome.
October 8, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Well, it hasn't gone blue since the 1968 realignment, so we don't have to worry about defending it ever. Furthermore,"
(For reference, it took them until July to open their first offices in VA, and they only opened up shop in Indiana a few weeks back.)
October 8, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
What makes this even more remarkable is that McCains NATIONAL HEADQUARTERS and one of his seven homes is in Virginia... I mean, C'mon! How incredibly efficient would it be to do at least a couple events between naps on the weekend?
October 8, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
[smile!]
October 8, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope so. That would be a dream.
October 8, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
But...But...Cindy McCain said Obama's campaign is the dirtiest, most disgustingly slanderous campain in history!
Who am I to believe anymore??? HAHAHA
October 8, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Methinks the lady doth project too much.
October 8, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kind of strange that he's still spending so much money in NM. You'd think he'd be using that money in VA and NC.
October 8, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, you would think. But the McCain campaign hasn't exactly proven themselves to be the best electoral strategists.
October 8, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who?
October 8, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, McCain.
Here in NM, there's a barrage of McCain ads, and it just seems that he'd be going after states that he can win.
October 8, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the local NM info. I live in CA and have no idea what it's like to see TV saturated with campaign ads :-)
Greg's post says spending there is roughly equal. If NM is not really close, it'd make sense for both camps to cut down.
Maybe McSame thinks NM'ers can't resist voting for a local AZ boy?
October 8, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've noticed that there is a barrage of Obama ads, too. It looks to me like just about time a McLame ad airs, it's followed by an Obama ad.
October 8, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that is true.
Throw in all of the representative ones (ABQ hosts practically 2 of the 3 rep district ads), senate ads, and third-party "issue" ads, and I don't see how an honest advertiser trying to sell a product makes a living. There are no commercials but political ads!
October 8, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now, a new attack line on Ayers from the McCain campaign--probably to appear in a television ad.
--from John M. Murtagh, the son of the judge that was targeted by the Weather Underground.
So if Obama runs an response ad of him being 8 years old at the time of the WeatherUnderground attacks, then the McCain campaign will come back with an ad of John Murtagh at age nine. Typical.
October 8, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
And we were all so concerned that Obama was getting outspent so badly over the summer and that the "celeb" meme was going unchallenged.
Hmmm... I guess Obama really did have a strategy after all. Who would have thunk it?
October 8, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not just a far-sighted strategy; also great reaction to unexpected events as they come along.
Amazin' ain't it?
October 8, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting analysis from the new ARG poll for those who are worried about the national polls tightening up:
October 8, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
As in the primary, Obama is running his campaign to do as well as possible given the rules. McCain, on the other hand, seems to have brought Mark Penn's brain aboard.
October 8, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hah! And that's not judgment we can believe in, my friends.
October 8, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe that's what's making Steve StupidSchmidt's head so pointy?
October 8, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stupid is right - anyone who hires Schmidt after this debacle is a complete idiot who is dying to lose.
October 8, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought that was a really good point.
For all the talk about a 50 state strategy, Obama has actually been much better at focusing his vast resources in on states where he really does have a legitimate chance at victory.
So much of the discussion about the election is focused on things happening at the national level. McCain tries and tries to capitalize on that coverage bias, with no clear plan for how it will lead to electoral victory. Meanwhile, Obama's local efforts go largely unnoticed and lead to these types of skewed results.
October 8, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
to venture a guess at their motives, i think that the negative campaign ads aren't necessarily for the soft middle or independents, but are for the republican base. sen. mccain understands that there will be plenty of ballot/registration challenges by local GOP operatives in swing states and as long as he can get out the vote for republicans- energize the base as much as possible, they can challenge sen. obama in the states that matter (ohio and florida) for sen. mccain's chances to win.
energize the base with attacks ads and negative stump speeches and they will be more willing to work on election day to get out the vote for mccain. turnout is still very important to win and i think the mccain campaign is looking ahead and trying to do that now.
October 8, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given how the campaign has thus far been run, it's not clear to me that they're even capable of being this tactical. But I agree with your line of thinking: Palin is energizing the base.
Of course, the problem with that, as it always has been, is that the "base" has shrunk considerably, and McCain's job was to lure independents over to his side.
So while the "base" may be energized and willing to work on Election Day and GOTV efforst, they're not going to be working with a lot.
October 8, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's bizarre how McCain used to be the centrist figure. His has become the part of whack jobs.
Not good tactical skills. Or do I mean strategic? (Remembering McCain's attack about Obama not knowing the difference)
October 8, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
As Tony said above, it's as if they've brought Mark Penn on board.
I was thinking on the way into work that the McCain campaign has well and truly done an awful job. Think about it: he's a war hero, had that whole maverick thing going for him, and he's running against a black guy named Barack Hussein Obama. Hussein and Obama, in the same name? While everyone talks about how Obama should be ahead, I'd argue that McCain, had he been any of the things that he claims he is, would be kicking the ass of the black guy with that weird name.
October 8, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
you're right. there has been no major indication that the mccain campaign has the ability to be strategic in their campaign plans- they seem to be making it up as they go along.
this morning on npr, reporters were speaking with mccain supporters who were attending a rally headed by gov palin. one of the attendees noting how it would "scare me to death" if sen obama becomes elected. i think the verocity of such their revulsion has been amplified with their "all negative all the time" methods. that message seems to be clearly only be for their base (at rallies and in targeted ad slots) and not for mixed audiences (viewers of last night's debate).
while i agree that the mccain campaign hasn't shown the foresight and anticipatory moves that the obama campaign have become deft at, perhaps my supposition might be a lucky coincidental circumstance rather than a premediated outcome.
October 8, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's true that she energizes the Republican base. But she does the same for the Democrats'.
So it's probably a wash.
October 8, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
This really does not surprise me at all that McCain just outright said "Guys, f*** it - I'm 72, this is my last chance at the White House. I know I promised a clean campaign, but God dammit, get me Rove on the phone!"
I still despise the man for going this route, but it really doesn't surprise me that he did and for those who ask why he did, you have your (potential) answer above.
OK, I'm also not as naive as some may think because I do realize that desperation is also a factor here. I mean, it's one thing to say "Let's run a clean campaign" when you just won the Republican primary, then it's something else when you're a month away from the Big Day and you're down 6-7 points nationally with the worst economy in recent memory hovering over your head like Stinky from Ren & Stimpy.
October 8, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
NM is +7 for Obama per RCP aggregate poll. More taxpayer (federal funding) money going to waste by their doomed campaign.
October 8, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is fun. Joe Biden about SNL this morning.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/08/biden-cracks-up-over-snl_n_132925.html
October 8, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I saw that this morning on GMA. It made my morning, actually.
October 8, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll bet he watched it with the sound ON.
October 8, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another good indicator of McCain's despiration and mental status is that inane high whiney voice he uses to explain himself to people,,,, it was really spooky last evening and the body language of the people close to him revealed it.
My little grey cells woorked on this overnight,,,,and voila, as Hercule Poirot would say, it came to me. It's the same creepy come hither voice that we used years ago in the dreaded age appropriate sex ed classes for the little kids when we role played situations for them so they would know what to avoid when Uncle Herman wanted to entice them out behind the dumbster for some 'treats', like putting his hand in their pants. Yes the same voice and body language. Spot the Looney, folks.
October 8, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is like a priest in the "closed" confessional box.
October 8, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
He kept trying to be - I don't know, but he'd drop his voice into that tone that meant he was trying to be human, I guess - and it is so obviously forced that it has the affect of putting people off.
Obama is natural. He just connects with people.
October 8, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem with McCain "hitting Obama and his "liberal" allies in Congress" is that it reminds people of McC's Republican allies in Congress and they're as unpopular as Bush is.
October 8, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
If these negatives don't work, what does McPalin have left?
The debate doesn't seem to have changed McCain's numbers today.
Maybe the Palin infomercials with Hannity on the GOP propaganda network will be the game-changer.
Yeah, that's the ticket.
October 8, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink