McCain Campaign's Ad Spending Now Nearly 100 Percent Devoted To Attack Ads
The McCain campaign has now shifted virtually 100 percent of his national ad spending into negative ads attacking Obama, a detailed breakdown of his ad buys reveals.
By contrast, the Obama campaign is devoting less than half of its overall ad spending to ads attacking McCain. More than half of its spending is going to a spot that doesn't once mention his foe.
I asked Evan Tracey -- who tracks national ad spending for the Campaign Media Analysis Group -- to detail the amounts each campaign is spending on specific different spots. The idea was to gauge the precise degree of the McCain campaign's shift into negative mode amid his slide in the polls, and determine whether the Obama camp was following suit.
The results were striking, and suggest a sharper turn into negative campaigning as time runs low. For one thing, Tracey says, Obama is now outspending McCain by nearly two to one on the air -- Obama is spending $2.4 million per week, and McCain is spending $1.3 million weekly. But on to the breakdowns.
As of October 1 -- three days ago -- the McCain campaign's $1.3 million weekly is being broken down as follows, according to Tracey, who stressed that he himself wasn't labeling the ads either "positive" or "negative":
* Nearly half a million weekly is funding the ad called "Dome," which attacks "Obama and his liberal allies" in Congress for favoring "massive government."
* A shade more than half a million is funding the ad called "Mum," which attacks "Obama and his liberal allies" as "mum on the market crisis."
* Much of the remaining McCain money is funding a spot called "Overseas," which says that "Barack Obama and his liberal allies are to blame" for jobs going overseas. A negligible amount of the remainder is going to a positive spot, the "Original Mavericks" ad.
This is a dramatic shift from the period before he suspended his campaign. At that time, Tracey says, McCain was spending in the neighborhood of half his ad money on the positive "Original Mavericks" ad, and around half on the negative "Dome" spot.
This week, by contrast, "Original Mavericks" ran on Monday only eight times, suggesting that this positive spot is "cycling out of the rotation," as Tracey puts it. "McCain took out the "Mavericks" spot and replaced it with "Mum," Tracey says.
Now let's look at Obama's spending breakdown.
Of his $2.4 million weekly, Tracey says, well over half -- $1.4 million -- is funding the spot called "Real Change," which criticizes the status quo but doesn't mention McCain once.
The remaining million per week is funding a smattering of ads that do attack McCain, on topics like Social Security, health care, and McCain's "fundamentals of the economy" line.
Pretty striking contrast.
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
October 3, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Three times in one day (by my scan) -- great to have you back!
October 3, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
my goodness the little baby jebus does love me and Barack Obama.
'This was my fondest hope - and I thought it was coming in the home stretch - but people consistently have polled negatively on attacks on Obama.
This is gonna be the greatest thing for voter turnout on our side EVAH!!!!!
October 3, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you guys haven't seen this new ad, it's excellent. I love the way they stretch McCain into some kind of caricature in the background.
It's almost creepy, but that's spot-on and I LOVE it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOqSQeKsspU
October 4, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just in case you haven't done the math, less than half of $2.4M is pretty close to almost all of $1.3M. It seems clear from the other figures you provide that McCain is spending more overall in total dollars on negative ads than Obama is, but the difference isn't as stark as the headline and two lede grafs would imply.
October 3, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was the first thing I thought of when I read this report. Obama is running almost as many negative ads as McCain, he just has enough cash in the bank that he can overshadow it with positive ad buys.
One of the many benefits of opting out of public financing.
The real question is...if McCain goes to far and the Obama campaign actually decides to go negative, watch out. Imagine $2.4 million in negative ad buys for a week or two, and the damage he could do to McCain with that (even if he didn't do it long, to maintain his "new-politics" image).
October 3, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
What has not been factored in, is that Obama will be raising his media buys by 10 to 15 percent per week beginning next week!
That's why his decision to skip public funding.
How ironic the Republicans are taking a Government handout and the Democrats are pulling themselves up by their bootstraps.
And now we have a National welfare program for Wall Street.
Truly we are in Alice's Wonderland.
October 3, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
And this is why the campaign Axelrod and Plouffe created to usher Obama into the Presidency will be taught about and hashed over for the next four years and beyond.
It's almost as if they were waiting at every turn for the next move the Republicans would make, smiling as they waited patiently.
"Oh, fancy meeting you guys here ..."
October 3, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup! Team Obama is playing a masterful game of chess, while Team McStain are still playing checkers over a pickle barrel.
In a pickle? Over a barrel? Well, you get it...
I still want to see at least one Keating ad before this whole thing is over. Come on Axelrod, throw me a bone!
PEACE
October 3, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keating ad
Well said, Spencers Mom; I can't wait to see a Keating ad sneaking into the campaign. We almost forgot about this excellent McCAin adventure.
October 4, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree! I hear the "Keating 5" is releasing a new album just in time for president Obamas inaguration. And remember without McCain, it would be the "Keating 4"-For shame John Mc Cain palling around with econmic terrorist.
Do it Barack-PLEASE play the Keating 5 card-it is sooo relevant to whats going on in todays financial meltdown. Win baby Win
October 5, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are absolutely correct. Obama's campaign has been air-tight and disciplined, two characteristics that the candidate has imposed on it, though the managers deserve much credit. How many times in the past year, months, weeks, has the Greek Chorus been freaking out, saying "you'd better do this, you'd better do that, and you'd better do it fast!"? They have never strayed off course, and like you say, wherever the McCain ticket arrives, there sits Obama, waiting.
October 3, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure you were being ironic here, despite the received wisdom, there's not much new about welfare for the rich.
October 4, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Look at Sarah over there on the right - tell me she didn't have on about 5 times too much cheek color last night.
She had on way too much makeup.
October 3, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
But that tatoo lip liner held up!
October 3, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not just the lipliner - the lip color: it never varies one iota; the eyeliner and the eyebrows = tattooed on. Betcha.
October 3, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am looking forward to watching gravity work on her tatooed face. Won't that sag be beautiful at 60?! Thank goodness I my chances of living to see it all fall are good!
October 3, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I'm still around when she hits 60, then I'd say that I'm late for that big dirt nap.
October 3, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that like "plaster[ing] on the makeup like a trollup"? At least John's taste in bimbos is consistent.
October 3, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe Cindy uses a trowel...
October 4, 2008 12:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do they still have Merle Norman up in Maverilaska ?
October 3, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this what you mean?
October 3, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have forgotten you are only supposed to be spooky at night. Frightening, simply frightening.
Nocturnal submissions only in the future.
October 3, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have to ask yourself, "which is more frightening: the Merle Norman queen or Sarah Palin?" Given those choices, I'm pretty benign.
October 3, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
AIYEEEEEEE! That made my hair stand - don't do that.
lol
October 3, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what you get when you Google Merle Norman. Couldn't resist.
October 3, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
That photo is what they call Nightmare Fuel.
October 3, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the Nightmare Fuel.
October 3, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like a trollop?
I guess McShame likes his women that way.
Of course, considering he spent $5,500 last month on a make-up artist, this shouldn't be a surprise.
October 3, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait'll he calls her a *unt.
October 3, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
He probably already did after he saw the first
Couric interview.
October 3, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought he was talking about Couric at that point.
October 3, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't that his default term for those of the female persuasion?
October 3, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does it bother you that much, really? With all due respect I think this kind of criticism makes us look ridiculous and shallow.
October 3, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Real Change is one of the best presidential ads ever, accomplishing the task of clearly educating the voters on the implications of this election and of presenting a candidate that comes off as very presidential. It's an ad which truly raises Obama's positives.
October 3, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which is more expensive? National ad buys, or targeted buys?
As I mentioned in the last thread, I'm wondering about cash issue wrt the McCain campaign.
October 3, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
targeted
October 3, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is what I think most people at this point think about political ads: Not another goddamn political ad - and then they throw something at the TV.
October 3, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Governor Palin is campaigning in your state, Tena. Think about that for a moment.
The conservatives Queen is campaigning in Texas. How's that for a mindblower?
October 3, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah's accent really grates on the Texas ear.
Most voters will watch her the same way Sarah watches SNL -- with the sound turned off.
October 3, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or like how I watch debates, presidential or otherwise: on mute.
October 3, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
She is coming here to repay the debt owed to the Liberty Legal Foundation, the Dobson group from our state fighting for her up in Alaska. They lost in court yesterday and attacked the judge for supporting gay marriage in a ten year old ruling. As a Texan I offered them additional help. Phil Gramm and Tom Delay are available.
October 3, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Somebody else told me that this morning. I think I swooned. No I swooned when somebody posted the 10 point lead Obama has in Penn.
But man, Texas has to be more volatile than anyone thinks if they are sending her down there.
October 3, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha! Texas is one place that folks will still come out to see poor little Palin. After the rally, we'll see the blog about the thousands that lined up to see her. Maybe she can drum up another "kill him" comment from the crowd.
Look for her to have a "wardrobe malfunction" and expose her cleavage and handgun!
October 8, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Their internals must show that Texas is slipping a bit otherwise why waste a day there....
Any visit by McPalin outside their target states with 32 days left is campaign malpractice.
Also Hillary will be in Arkansas next Friday...I wonder what the Obama internals are showing there?
October 3, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's probably fundraising/campaigning.
October 3, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's only in Texas for the money. She didn't do anything public in Dallas except wave as she got off the plane. Then she did a private event with a bunch of rich people, The RNC pocketed the cash, and she and moved on.
October 3, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stay classy John!
October 3, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
My son found the Obama channel in dishnetwork this morning. Channel 73, all Obama all the time. How much does that cost ? It's actually really cool
October 3, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT: What's really cool is your avatar. It mesmerizes me every single time.
October 3, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT- all three times I've been able to align my screenname and password long enough to post a silly comment here ? I'm a flattered woodnymph
October 3, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hm. That really is an amazing avatar. Goes with your screen name, but you knew that. lol...
October 3, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking as a former campaign consultant, McCain going 100% negative is a desperation move. It means they think this is the best shot for changing the dynamics of the race, which is now trending entirely in Obama's direction.
October 3, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
That would make sense. It says you believe that your vision/ideas are not resonating with people and your only hope is to get the lesser of two evils vote.
October 3, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's also an attempt to keep people who are considering voting early from doing so, putting more pressure on Obama's GOTV machine on election day.
A desperation move, but one with a bit of strategy behind it.
October 3, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. This is the classic last option of a failing campaign. I'm assuming things are about to get real ugly. Wright, Ayers, Communist-Muslim rants and direct questions about Obama's patriotism. Palin already started last night and today with her line about Obama supposedly saying our troops in Afghanistan weren't doing anything but hurting the locals.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 3, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama doesn't have to say it...it's a known fact.
October 3, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
A cornered, bleeding animal.
October 3, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
A wounded badger always kicks with its legs...
October 3, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aye, but he regrets the tone the campaign has taken. If only Obama had agreed to do those town halls . . .
And what a prick that Rolling Stone article showed him to be.
October 3, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
i think the mccain campaign doesn't realize that it's his brand that's hurting and he needs to fix his brand more than try to damage obama's. that is just wasted energy (money & time).
October 3, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're right. But the McCain campaign has decided it's not worth the resources to try to fix his brand. It's sort of another McCain "Hail Mary."
October 3, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember the original Maverick from Texas. He refused to brand his cattle so when round-up time came, he claimed all the unbranded cattle as his.
McCain is thinking along the same lines. By making an issue how bad Obama is, he's imply he is the exact opposite.
October 3, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain/Palin campaign now 100% negative?
What else they got? Nothing!
Poverty of ideas + branded as liars = Screwed.
October 3, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
My mother (in Texas) chewed out an Obama phone caller the other day because the caller interrupted her soap opera. She told the caller that she was going to vote for the person who bothered her the least, and added that the Obama campaign should note that she napped between 12:30 and 1, and if they wanted her vote they'd damn well better not call during her nap.
I'm ALL about the Republicans getting active and bothering people in Texas! That state is FULL of people like my mother!
October 3, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're 4 weeks out - everyone is sick of it.
Personally I hate phone calls. I have an aversion to making calls for a candidate for that reason. I can't bring myself to do that to someone else - but I know it's effective or they wouldn't do it.
So don't be offended any of you have phone banked - this is just me personally. It's not about y'all - y'all are awesome to do what you do and I thank you very much.
October 3, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama campaign has shown a pretty amazing ground game. It's a pretty solid bet that a note went into the database: "Minimize calls. Don't call between 12:30-1 (nap)"
October 3, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd sure love Obama to bring this up on Tuesday.
October 3, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure he will. He's not backing down. McCain's only hope in the debate is that his buddy Tom will be the moderator.
October 3, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
John's response: "If you had just agreed to my town hall meetings proposal, none of this would have been necessary." It's become a reflex now.
October 3, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
That and tying Mccain to Bush is now "looking to the past."
October 3, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I would say in response to that, if McCain pulls it out at the debate: (in his best Obama voice) "John, I don't know why you keep saying George Bush is the past. George Bush is the present--he's the president today--and I think the American people know that. They know if we elect another president who's just like George Bush, tomorrow's not gonna look any better than today. Joe Biden and I want to move the country forward."
October 3, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good. Another point: the smoking wreckage that George Bush created, with your approval and support John, is what we have to deal with *today*. Oh if only it were the past, John McCain.
October 3, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
McSame and Bible Spice have never been good at history.
Bush's policies are present, not past, well not yet anyway. Some of them won't be in the past for many years likely.
October 4, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope he says that in the debate, because Obama's response would be, "So what you're saying is that you're lying in your ads because I didn't do the townhall meetings? Is that what you're saying,...John."
At which point McCain has a major meltdown live on tv.
October 3, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great answer. I hope Obama's people are reading this thread.
October 3, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sad news. The Sioux seem to have gotten SFCWallace's avatar over at the Little Big Horn this a.m. All that is left are his posts. He was a brave man. Never abandoned his posts.
I am not sure if he is gone to that new McCain HQ in Virginia (located in the airspace above Appamattox) or took a wooden arrow financed by tax breaks to aid Oregon, but sis a sip of tax free Puerto Rican Rum until his avatar is interred or returns.
October 3, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like TPM's new server isn't keen on new avatars. I can't get rid of this one for love or money or lack of trying.
October 3, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
By jeezum, they'd better fix that by Nov 4. I'll be darned if I'm gonna keep this stupid avatar past McCain's defeat.
October 3, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
My avatar is like McCain. Inconsisent and usually broken.
October 3, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
8 swing states atm, Obama needs to win 1 of those 8 to win. He is leading in 6 of them. Is McCain desperate? He be a fool if he cant see the writing on the wall.
October 3, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is a fool.
October 3, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aye, a lying, foolish fool.
October 3, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
So if McCain is all negative in his ads now, then his debate performance on Tuesday should be really interesting. I would expect him to mirror those ads and be even angrier and more contemptible than he was in the first debate. Not a good way to win over undecideds.
October 3, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
My thoughts as well. My wife - a child therapist - says that he's exerting a tremendous amount of energy trying to keep his angry behavior in check.
One wonders what the pressure must be like for him at this point. If you read the cover story on McCain in the current Rolling Stone, you know what I mean.
October 3, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
She reminds me of a flirtatious waitress, the kind who snap their gum, wink, and nudge you with an oversize hip while ignoring your spouse.
October 3, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
whoops, was supposed to be a reply to Tena's remark about 500,000 women, below.
October 3, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the link for anybody who hasn't had a chance to read the Rolling Stone story. It's a must-read.
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain
October 3, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks very much, I was wondering where I could find it.
October 3, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Attack ads have gotten McCain into the hole he's in today. And what's the saying?.. "When you find out you're at the bottom of a hole, the first thing you should do is stop digging." Guess they haven't heard that one.
October 3, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
He should have drained the swamp instead.
October 3, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, just gag me.
Via Andrew Sullivan, Rich Lowry's reaction to Palin:
I think I have to hurl.
October 3, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
And 500,000 more women just said: "no fucking way".
Do you know any women who are comfortable with the idea that the career women their husbands spend time with are all winky and adorable?
Ha ha ha
October 3, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not only that, but consider that it's acceptable for Rich Lowry to talk about how starbursty and mesmerizing Palin was, and now consider what the reaction would be if some female commentator started drooling about how masculine and manly and mesmerizing Obama was, while specifically bringing her gender into the discussion. She'd be laughed out of a job.
October 3, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
In my part of the world we would send her off to a cousin in CT as a disgrace to white wimmenhood.
Unless she weren't white.
October 3, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
So so true. I mean I never even thought of that and it's so obviously true.
wow.
October 3, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was for CT's wonderful comment on the goddamn double standard.
October 3, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
She is supposed to appeal to the base.
October 3, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I noticed. And she's like catnip to a certain segment over there. Unfortunately, the things that she personifies that they love about her are the very things that repel independent voters, drives those on the left batty, and completely offends a large chunk of female voters in a way that blows back at John McCain himself. This is a clear cut case of one foot forward, three steps back.
But hey, the base loves her...
October 3, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes, base instincts.
October 3, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
She reminds me of a flirtatious waitress, the kind who snap their gum, wink, and nudge you with an oversize hip while ignoring your spouse
October 3, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
That car in the TV is gonna run me over! AHHHHH!
October 3, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hah! This made me remember when I was 6 and home from kindergarten, sick, sitting on the couch, watching TV, which was kinda exciting, because my mom didn't allow us to watch much, and Jack Lalaine (spelling?) was on, and he looked directly into the camera and said "Now get up off that couch!"
I was scared.
And I did as I was told.
But eventually, I figured out he couldn't actually see me. During the same program. As a six year old, I was a lot sharper than Rich Lowry.
October 3, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, that's a really unfair assumption. You're just a lot smarter than Lowry clearly assumes the majority of voters in this country are.
And fortunately, the majority of voters are a lot smarter than he assumes they are as well.
October 3, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a great story....LMAO.
October 3, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the polls keep dropping she'll have to do a Sharon Stone impression. OK, I know. Leave Brittney alone.
October 3, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, some of us men just found it downright creepy.
October 3, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are among the sane and healthy.
October 3, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously.
October 3, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
VAMP. Yup. And any man who falls under her spell is a number one sucker!
For further info:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/10/vamp-a-type-of-femme-fatale.php
October 3, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you having trouble getting to the Dish today?
October 3, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. Are you?
October 3, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. Maybe it's my work computer. Ton of timeouts.
October 3, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what happens when people hurl their remotes through the tv screen.
October 3, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOLOLOL!!!!!
October 3, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
And yet the viewers still said Biden won...
October 3, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a shite for brains Lowry is. So he must think she's running for Miss America instead of Vice fookin President.
October 3, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's something about seeing a hypocrite run smack into Karma!
Such a pathetic, diminished figure.
October 3, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a shift? When has he not been virtually 100 percent negative?
The only "positive" McShame ad I've ever seen (and I use that term loosely) was that God-awful "original maverick" that that ran during the Olympics.
Even before his drop in the polls, McShame was running the most negative presidential campaign I've ever seen -- not to mention the most untruthful and deceptive. After all, they've got nothing positive to say that will actually appeal to the voters they need.
October 3, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Say Greg - except for the people having trouble with avatars, I gotta say this site is working great! My comments are posting in seconds flat!
'
Wow!
October 3, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
We'll expect more updates from your polling real Taos workmen.
October 3, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
[golfclap]
The point was that while anecdotal, it indicates to me that lots of people are paying attention and it also tells me that wherever these so-called low information voters might be hiding, I don't run into many.
October 3, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Low information voters are hardly hiding. They are posting like crazy that Palin won the debate because Biden did not show Obama's birth certificate or soemthing.
October 3, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
It could be worse. They could be spending 110% on negative ads.
October 3, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
John McCain has always given 110% to his country.
First.
October 3, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
A scary BLACK MAN coming get your WIFE AND DAUGHTER! Boo! Run away fast!!
Jeez-louise.
October 3, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you making a play for one of the Heath girls?
October 3, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why will BO be successful this time lies in the stark differences between Hillary and McCain. McCain isnt as strong a candidate as Hillary is and he is running a worse campaign than Hillary.
By the end of next week we will hear rumors about other states McCain is contemplating pulling out of because he cant match BO dollar for dollar and the RNC cant help him that much because they are putting their emphasis on the congressional and senatorial races.
The fat lady is warming up her voice.
October 3, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
So let's keep giving to BO to keep the ads a comin'.
October 3, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
What the hell happened to the Republicans? It's like they didn't even show up to play this year. They fielded the weakest bunch of candidates in the primary so that even a reanimated corpse like McCain has a chance to walk away with the nomination. Then, the legendary campaign know-how takes a powder and sits out the game while McCain gets Bush retreads to maneuver his campaign over a cliff, back up, and then go over the cliff again. Until Palin's debut at the ball, the big money was sitting on their hands. Now, they have a bad case of the willies and even Krauthammer is throwing in the towel.
Why are the Republicans ceding this one? Do they think their chances will be better in '12? (can our memories possibly be that short?!) I can't figure out why they put in their third string and then went home.
October 3, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
In my opinion, it is because there is no actual Republican Party now. It's a bunch of factions at war with each other.
October 3, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
the writing was on the wall. when you've got an extremely unpopular second term preznit breaking records for low approval ratings, you're gonna get the long shots, the last chancers, and the self-financed vanity candidates. especially since current conventional wisdom is that if you win the nomination but lose in the general election you don't get a second bite at the apple.
October 3, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree - NH is gone - even RCP has it in the Obama leaner column today as they do WI, PA and MN. That means the average in those states is Obama +5-9.9.
Assuming the Obama ground game is worth 2-3 pts (conventional wisdom) and the cell phone bias in the polls adds another 2-3% (per 538.com) then any state that is McCain is not leading by more than 5 points on election day is in play.
If the lead continues to grow and the base gets demoralized by the looming obvious defeat then states like GA, AR, SC, MT, WV and a few others could fall as well.
McCain has run a terrible campaign and his army is outmanned 4-1 in the field or more by Obama with paid staff. The volunteers are a force multiplier..Obama is in EVERY state in some way and that will pay off on election day with a few surprises I think.
October 3, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to digress, but we have always heard of sports backgrounds of young Obama and Biden.
How come we never hear any sports stuff about McCain? Was he in the band or something shameful?
October 3, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Harrumph! I was in the band.
Was there supposed to be something shameful about that?
At any rate, I've never heard anything about McCain being a musician.
October 3, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, was he in the Latin club instead of something manly like feetball is my point. Played the tuba myselfs.
October 3, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there something with the word "allies" and how it sounds that the McCain campaign likes?
I've noticed it has popped up in his radio ads on stem cell research also along with the ads above.
October 3, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the military connotation.
October 3, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
In a time when the American people are begging for answers and solutions to the problems facing our country the only thing McCain offers are more negative ads. McCain can't run on the issues so he is left to run from them. McCain does not know how to govern so all he gives us is negative ads and lies which is only thing McCain is good at and knows how to do.
Wonder how he would run our country? hint hint
October 3, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
John McCain - all negative, all the time!
October 3, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I predict that Senator McCain will soon claim that he has never run a negative campaign ad. Ever. And that he takes strong exception to any claims to the contrary.
And then a more direct threat that includes the word "punk."
October 3, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT: Great avatar
October 3, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
He said that in Des Moines to the newspaper there the other day. "I am Proud of the campaign we have run" and denied using negative ads and ever lying...
October 3, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
So both are spending the same amounts on attack ads? Obama just puts a similar amount to "What am I going to do" ad buys.
A million dollars a week on ads? That's all? The ground campaign must cost a lot more than I figure. I mean $84M over two months - where is it all going?
October 3, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear that the cost of Cinemax for all the hotel rooms in all the cities that they visit every week really starts to add up.
Oh, and I heard they had a padded cushion added to all the seats on the Obama jet for comfort.
October 3, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I phone bank one evening a week and canvass houses Saturdays & Sundays. I am in N.E. Ohio, and we have canvass events a few times a month.
I feel strange calling people at home too, but most don't answer.
Going to people's homes, knocking on doors is different for me, but the positive feedback makes it all worth it!
OBAMA MUST WIN!
I am just trying to do my part, and I send $10 every week or so, and that's harder than canvassing but I'll continue to do this until November 4th!
OBAMA 08
October 3, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
And thank you so much for doing that - you honestly are a better person than I am - no snark.
:)
October 3, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
WTF with some pundits...I can't believe what I am hearing. As if pitbull has a brain and is ready to be VP or President...
MSNBC must be freaking out that this is no longer a close race.
Even now, even McWar has conceded Michigan, they are saying that Michigan is only leaning Obama, and they are still saying it is closer than ever...
October 3, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain Memo: 'Respectful Campaign':
October 3, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain dropped $8M in Michigan, almost 10% of his federal public funding, and he will get zero return. If he has to pull out of PA in a week to 10 days, i.e. if he sees no poll movement down to 5% or better for him, then his campaign is in a death spiral.
October 3, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was that all public funding, or are they counting money they spent from their primary funds as well. Obama recently said he's going to spend $39M on Florida, but was obviously including his primary spending in that State into his final number.
October 3, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the number between Memorial day and Labor day. They say 6.15 mil for that time period. So 8 mil in total is not far fetched, but obviously it seems the number includes both the sources.
http://www.mcfn.org/press.php?prId=69
October 3, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are her kids being home schooled?
October 3, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope - at least they haven't up until the campaign.
They may be doing something like that now as I've seen the various children with her frequently. I also understand that the oldest daughter (the pregnant one) has been withdrawn from school - I guess because if there's anything better than a pregnant, unwed 17 yr-old, it's a pregnant, unwed 17 yr-old dropout.
October 3, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something tells me he watched the debate with his pants around his ankles.
October 3, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
All this negativity that McCain is spewing, via his campaign ads and in his own personality, has got to be doing a number on his physical health. Just look at all the diseases that are stress related. And he's had multiple cancers. Doesn't he realize what he's doing to himself? Or is he truly blinded by ambition?
By the time next Tuesday's debate rolls around, I wouldn't be surprised to see even more facial tics, grimaces, confusion, etc.
October 3, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
NPR is reporting that a new "Committee for Truth in Politics" is running ads in Penn. and Wisconsin saying Obama voted 4 times against protecting "infants that survive late-term abortion." Bill Peaslee, former head of North Carolina Republicans, just incorporated this committee. There's another one similar called "Born Alive Truth," an Illinois 527. Does anyone know what the basis is for these accusations--I mean what these votes were about?
October 3, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/obama_and_infanticide.html
In addfition, if you go to Andrew Sullivan's blog and search "obama, born alive" he's got several entries and links that discuss the issue.
October 3, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you.
October 3, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's face it, Republicans going negative is nothing new.
What is interesting here though is that almost 100% of McCain's ads are joint RNC/McCain Campaign funded.
That means half of each ad is paid for by the RNC, who just brought in a bumper $66 million crop.
Campaign Finance rules essentially mean that there has to be some mention of congressional opponents in every ad for the RNC to partially fund them. Hence 'liberal allies in Congress'.
The RNC and McCain will be going 50/50 on these ads. We have to accept the RNC Cash as McCain cash.
(Also explaining the negativity: it's kind of hard to run positive ads with half RNC funding and comply with Campaign Finance Rules isn't it?)
October 3, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
All I want to know is if that means the McCain campaign seriously stretches thin.
And yes, the RNC cash is effectively McCain's cash (hint: loophole), but the RNC cannot drop the whole 66 mil for McCain, right? They need to invest good chunk to the congressional/senatorial races as well. I wonder how much of the RNC money will be going to McCain.
October 3, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
cant they make Obama a little bit darker?
i can still just about see his face.
October 3, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
On the wink: I thought she was winking at Gwen! I had to go to a meeting half way through the debate and I asked if anyone else had been watching. The person who had thought Gwen was the intended target too. And, yes, it was creepy and disconcerting.
On the grammar: Save me!
On the offspring: so the soon-to-be "happy" couple are both high school dropouts? So far Sarah's not having to worry about those distressing college fees she brings up occasionally. Keep up the good parenting!
And my last hope: think they'll recall her when she returns to Alaska with her tail tucked between her legs?
October 3, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I saw the "Committee for Truth in Politics" ad. It is similar to the Born alive ad. Obama has a rebuttle ad for that and all he has to do is run that ad in the places that the 527 smear ad is running.
October 3, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain response to the Dish Obama Channel is to send out ads via telegram.
October 3, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply |