McCain Campaign Pulling Out Of Michigan And Staffing Up In Virginia
I just got in touch with the McCain campaign, and they're not contesting this big news from Jonathan Martin that the McCain campaign is pulling out of Michigan:
John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play.McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.
McCain's campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
In a sign of how rapidly the race is shifting right now, Evan Tracey, who tracks national ad buys for the Campaign Media Analysis Group, tells me that as of Tuesday, McCain was outspending Obama in Michigan. Now McCain is apparently pulling out.
Separately, it's surprising that this didn't get any national coverage to speak of, but the McCain campaign also announced yesterday that he's adding a dozen new offices in Virginia, where Obama has gained in recent days. If nothing else, Obama is forcing McCain to spend more money in a state that hasn't voted for a Dem for president for 44 years -- LBJ in 1964.
Big things happening.
Big things,indeed.
This is going to be disheartening news for McCain supporters. And that's as important as ceding Michigan to Obama. Disheartened supporters aren't energentic supporters.
Wonder what's the state of his finances at this point?
October 2, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. That means Palin has to do just that much better tonight in order to offset the dampening of enthusiasm engendered by the appearance of defeat.
October 2, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Greg. MI is a done deal. MO next?
October 2, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the plan. I am working on it.
October 2, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Luckily (or unluckily depending on your view) East St. Louis is in IL or Obama just might take MO.
October 2, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are any of those McCain Virginia HQ's in Appamattox?
October 2, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://instantrimshot.com/
October 2, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, you are like so totally right Wallace dude. You mean not all U.S. Americans don't have maps? Like totally bitchin. Wallace, you are my hero!
October 2, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Er, fine, no argument there. I tell you truly, however, that even without East St Louis moving across the river, MO will still go blue this year. We here in the Show-Me state like to go with the winner (we have the most reliable records as a bell weather of any state in the nation) and that will be Barack Obama this year.
October 2, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure they're keeping the news of this from her (is she in a cone of silence?). She is a political creature, and they are different breed, but I can't imagine the pressure that must be building in her right now. And because of Couric questions, we all know that she knows that there are those out there mocking her, and consevatives questioning her readiness.
If it was me, two minutes before stepping in front of the cameras (and millions of people world wide), I'd be puking my guts out.
October 2, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wonderful news, this. I tip my hat to BatGuano, Billy Glad and all of the rest of you good volunteers in Michigan. Meanwhile, I have every confidence that our folks in Virginia are going to rise to the new challenge this presents.
October 2, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
That great musician is already ahead of them!
October 2, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would like to think that I personally scared McCain out of my state. But I'm just one of Obama's Michigan posse.
October 2, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. But I have to go back into Indiana now. I was over there for Clinton. The suburbs are so depressing.
October 2, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking for staff and volunteers here in Virginia, we're on it!
October 2, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
That makes the McCain strategy ultimately all about PA. They are going to try to make a play for WI/MN/NH, but realistically they're not going to have much luck. On the other hand, he has to defend, VA/OH/CO/NV/NM/FL/NC/IN
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
October 2, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
The latest Mason Dixon poll out of VA still has McCain up by 3. They're the only one and I think they're wrong. During the primaries, MD always underestimated Obama's support in southern states with large AA populations. I think the same thing is happening here. I really think Obama is ahead in VA.
October 2, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Recent polls would suggest that PA is pretty much out of reach. That's a lot to be reaching for... and the size of the state means that it will be quite an expenditure unless GOTV efforts are micro-targeted.
October 2, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Polls are putting WI out of reach too, and the most recent poll (CNN/Time) has Obama up by 11 in MN. More polling is needed in MN and NH, but I think MN is safe. NH is the only one that I'm not sure of; McCain's got some deep roots there. Obama could still eek out an NH win though.
October 2, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
On the other hand, he has to defend, VA/OH/CO/NV/NM/FL/NC/IN
Hm. True, but one wonders about OH. I guess we soon get to find out pretty quickly how closely modeled the polling samples have been.
Black turnout high in early voting
http://www.ajc.com/news/content/metro/stories/2008/10/02/black_early_voting.html
October 2, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't trust that for a second. I may mean they feel that they have better voter supression/fraud mechanisms in Michigan. Regardless, I really think Obama should put the pressure on and look at some of the other states that seems solid red states but are close and open up some new battlegroud states...
October 2, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've also heard rumblings about McCain trying to contest Maine, although whether it's for all four votes or just one is not clear. Is a legitimate operation even remotely possible, with less than forty days before the election?
And has anyone heard anything about Obama in Montana, Georgia, or Missouri?
October 2, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama pulled out of Georgia last week
October 2, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought he stopped running ads but still had a large number offices in the state.
October 2, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's got offices everywhere, but it's my understanding that they're mostly staffed by volunteers. (Who are doing a FANTASTIC job, by the way. Most of the paid staff was sent to NC.
October 2, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's still got one here in Bibb county...
October 2, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard he only kept one there to annoy you.
October 2, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's nice to be appreciated...
October 2, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama iis still here w/ about 50 staffers and registration and GOTV plans are going strong.
I have seen some cable ads but as far as local TV goes I don't watch it.
Early voting has started here and I saw a report that it is huge and up and overwhelmingly black....we had 600K unregistered blacks in the state, most here in Atlanta
Recent pols are McCain +8 and +6 if this keeps getting away from him we could get it done edp, if Barr gets 3-4% here.
If we are not competitive we can all go to NC or FL to help.....I think we are going to get it done if Obama can pull a little further ahead.
October 2, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, but didn't Sarah Barracuda say in a speech in front of (and I quote the McCain campaign here) 60,000 adoring supporters that Michigan was McCain country now and forever??
Funny what sour grapes life throws at ya, eh??
October 2, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pulling out of MI. That's a HUGE concession. HUGE. And having to spend more in VA? Ouch. I wonder what McCain's finances look like right now.
October 2, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thats a good question.
October 2, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the RNC can help him with ad spending, right? But there's only so far ads can go. And he needs to use his own funds for field offices... That must be taking a huge chunk out of his pocket.
October 2, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but even the RNC has to be wondering if that money can't be spent elsewhere. If McCain is looking like he's getting his clocked cleaned, it'll be harder for 527s to raise money, too.
October 2, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The RNC money can't help him with field offices.
October 2, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
He was out of IA last week as well so why in God's name McCain went there this week shows how incompetent his team is wasting a day there right now
October 2, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS
October 2, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 2, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 2, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 2, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 2, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
!!!
October 2, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 2, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
JOHN
October 2, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 2, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
BIFURCATION!!!!
October 2, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain!!!!
October 2, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
TRIANGULATION
October 2, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
YA BETCHA!
October 2, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol... you guys...
October 2, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
YER DARN TOOTIN'!!!!!!
October 2, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty soon you'll see drop outs in Wisconsin, New Mexico and Pennsylvania...I'd like to add Indiana, Ohio and Florida to that list, but McCain needs to maintain his desperate theatrics somewhere that has big EC numbers.
October 2, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are only so many states he can pull out of without conceding the election.
New Mexico is gone. Wisconsin is no better for him than Michigan.
October 2, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he's packed up in California and Vermont too...
October 2, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The way things are going... AZ may be on the chopping block shortly.
October 2, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you never had any hopes for Michigan?
October 2, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who cares what SFC thinks about Michigan. The fact of the matter is the McCain camp thought Michigan was one of their best chances of flipping a blue state and they're now giving up that dream.
With New Mexico and Iowa all but put away at this point and with Obama putting so many previously super red states in play (Indiana, Missouri, Florida, North Carolina), McCain has to play defense all over the map and as Nate Silver puts it, "if all they're doing is playing defense, that gives Obama so many scratch-off tickets -- Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and perhaps Indiana, Nevada, and Missouri -- that it's essentially inevitable that he'll get lucky in one or more of those states, several of which he already appears to have the lead in."
October 2, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe that was my point. The hilarity that somehow it is OK he is pulling out of MI was just too much for me.
October 2, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still have hopes for Mich and Penn and NH.
October 2, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's good to stay positive.
October 2, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Buck up, buddy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlsitMRQAdA
October 2, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Nightwish version may be more appropriate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gkg88Mw5xJw
October 2, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kind of you to point that out. Thanks
October 2, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
No problem...that's what I'm here for....
October 2, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
My Friends, I'm pulling out of Michigan because, once again, I'm putting my country first.
Senator Obama, on the other hand, is staying in Michigan. It's quite obvious that Senator Obama is putting his own candidacy first when it comes to this election.
October 2, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
There he goes, phoning it in again....And again, and again, and again.
http://my.barackobama.com/modules/votercontact/login_signup.php
October 2, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is funny, and exactly the kind of stupid thing McCain or his campaign would say.
October 2, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Makes perfect sense, as I believe pulling out is the only birth control method the freakazoids allow.
October 2, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It is now quite lawful for a Catholic woman to avoid pregnancy by a resort to mathematics, though she is still forbidden to resort to physics or chemistry."
- H.L.Mencken
October 2, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain blinked.
October 2, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seems like he has spent the entire campaign blinking
by misunderestimating Obama and his clear contempt for him simply colors his purely reactive and tactical view
October 2, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love the smell of retreating Republican in the early afternoon... smells like victory!
October 2, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if she and McCain butt heads on this...obviously, with five kids, Sarah Palin is against pulling out!
October 2, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
However many kids she has....it's not for us to comment about that - don't you think?
October 2, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are only so many states he can pull out of without conceding the election.
New Mexico is gone. Wisconsin is no better for him than Michigan.
I guess he's putting all his chips on PA.
October 2, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Loving the new server...
October 2, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think finances are going to matter all that much. I mean $84M to spend over two months is a whole lotta money, and that's not even counting what the RNC is spending on McCain/Palin.
I mean I think they could run ads in Michigan if they wanted to, but by pulling out the ground troops they concede it anyways.
They need the experienced ground troops elsewhere is all. It's not as if you could hire fresh new folks now for the final month.
October 2, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmmm, I thought the "experienced ground troops" were relocated to Sedona a few days ago to help prep Sarah for the debate.
October 2, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
She probably wore them out!
October 2, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very good news.
Not to state the obvious but McCain must be hard up for money. According to RCP he's got a 96 point electoral college deficit. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data
when you're down that much, you don't conceded a state with 17 votes unless you're having money problems.
For potential donors, it's probably seeming like an investment in John McCain is a loosing one, and/or they aren't so sure they want him in the drivers seat anyway.
October 2, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chuck Todd was talking about the tipping point this morning. The narrative in the media will start to pick up steam that McCain is tanking. If Palin fails tonight, there will be many in MSM who will be talking about a huge Obama electoral victory. What enthusiasm McCain has from supporters will begin to fade, causing Obama's lead to increase, leading to...
October 2, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
If she "treads water" - I think that's the best they can hope for.
October 2, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yeah. Joe KLein is writing about Obama's temperament vs. McCain's temperament (guess who looks better?), the political media is chattering about the polls, and the ObamaPollSplosion, as Ambinder put it, and now this.
I don't think Palin is going to fail tonight. I think she's probably going to be considered the winner, because the expectations are so low.
I don't think that's going to have any effect, though, because people seem to be getting a real snootful of the grumpy old man at the top of the ticket.
October 2, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Failure" and being mocked colors people's perceptions. They're gonna "see" Tina Fey. Trust me!
October 2, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
When campaigns seek to lower expectations around debates they usually discuss it in terms of debating style. With Palin, they're tuning in to see whether she "really is dumb as rocks." That can't be good.
October 2, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
...A big victory?
I'm too superstitious to say it will absolutely happen but it's looking good.
October 2, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not either, but the pundits in the MSM need to be saying something. They love a close horserace, but the polls are too much in Obama's favor, so they'll go overboard: "Is McCain's campaign dead in the water? We discuss that after the commercial break." "Will Obama outperform Bill Clinton?" etc etc.
October 2, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
...complete and utter nuclear China Syndrome meltdown by Grumpy McCrankypants on National F*cking Television.
There will be blood, my friends. Bloooood.
October 2, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was thinking "No Country For Grumpy Old Men."
October 2, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder about the money, as well, given that Michigan was relatively close. Closer than Wisconsin, certainly.
Donors won't be investing in McCain, either way, though, because he's gotten the 84 million from we taxpayers. They'd have to invest in the RNC.
And how's that for an attack line? "Obama is paying for his own campaign. We're paying for McCain's. Why did McCain want to stick it to taxpayers?"
October 2, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
And after tonight's performance, it'll be interesting to see if Palin still goes out to that Oct. 4th fundraiser in California. Of course, if money really is an issue, there's always Cindy.
October 2, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Halperin apparently says the RNC is considering going up with ads in Maine. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!
Yes McCain please try to contest Maine! In fact plan some rallies there. I'm sure Bangor and Augusta will welcome you with open arms!
October 2, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
You've got to be kidding me... What a waste. He must be REALLY desperate if he's going to Maine, or even just considering it.
October 2, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's actually surprisingly viable; Kerry won it by only nine points despite it being more or less in his backyard, and Obama's leads in the two most-recent polls (both conducted post-Lehman) are +5 and +4. Maine is also one of two states that splits up some of its EV by congressional district, although since both CDs are similar, that isn't likely to come into play.
October 2, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
My cousin lives in Maine and she told me that McCain has been running ads there. While Maine does have a proportional electoral system, it has a grand total of 4 electoral votes.
McCain and the Republicans are looking so incompetent.
October 2, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you want to use banners, bumper stickers and road signs as an indication of how Maine will go, McCain doesn't have much of a chance. The Obama/Biden blue is everywhere. Plus, Olympia Snowe has been laying low of late, and Collins is in a deep struggle of her own against Tom Allen.
October 2, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't realize that Susan Collins is struggling. Sort of a shock, isn't it?
October 2, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
What would Al Gore have given for NH's 4 electoral votes in 2000?
October 2, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can hear the behind-the-scenes "shoulda picked Mitt" meme developing now. I admit it, I love watching them destroy themselves.
October 2, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Romney wouldn't have come across much better during this economic crisis. Still, he wouldn't be the kind of embarrassment that Palin is.
October 2, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
At least they would be assured Utah on Nov 4th.
October 2, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
HAHA! Yeah, but Utah is the most conservative state in the country. They'll always vote Republican.
October 2, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not even close...Idaho baby!(well it is geographicaly close).
October 2, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Setting up staff in VA.... exactly where that radio ad is playing!
Hot Damn!
October 2, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is moving his Michigan staff to Virginia. I am scared !
In a couple of days, he'll move them to Indiana and Missouri. And that'd really scare me.
October 2, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Basically just trying to keep red states red. Who knows, maybe the blog over at redstate.com will start leaning left.
October 2, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maine's votes split I believe. Maybe they are counting on grabbing one of those rural Maine EV's.
October 2, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news.
After this campaign, the Palin pick, etc, I would like to see McCain crushed electorally.
He deserves it for selling out any admirable qualities he used to possess.
October 2, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
MAINE??? That's like assigning Helen Keller a book report project. What's he thinking??
October 2, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! Thanks, I needed a laugh.
October 2, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude...good thing you're not a Republican talking like that. You'd be shouted down as a sexist Deaf-Dumb-Blindaphobic hate monger...
October 2, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Dumb"?
I think you're confusing Helen Keller with Tommy.
October 2, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
SFCwallace....
I get your point that McCain isn't contesting vermont and california because those are two states that Obama will win handily. But there is a difference. Michigan was one of the FEW blue states that Republicans and McCain claimed they could flip. As of 10 days ago... Rove was saying McCain would play in Michigan and could win it. 10 days later? He is completely pulling out his mechanism.
McCain's road to 270 is getting steeper and steeper. Mccain has too much territory to defend and not enough territory to be on the offensive.
Pulling out of Michigan is a devastating move to McCain's chances (considering Obama is going to flip Colorado, New Mexico, and Colorado relatively easily...and now McCain has to fight for FL, OH, VA, NV,and NH.)
McCain is even campaign in MISSOURI. The pundits this morning said it all... When the Republican is spending time and resources defending MISSOURI, then the Republican is in trouble.
October 2, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, Missouri is a swing state. Obama was just under-performing there compared with other Democrats. It has a slight Republican lean, but Clinton carried it twice and Kerry and Gore were competitive there.
October 2, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Missouri is not Idaho. It can be flipped for Obama.
October 2, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the next headline:
McCain Suspends McCain Campaign to Deal with Emergency Collapse of McCain Campaign.
October 2, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Overall GREAT news for Obama since Michigan was truly one of the blue states where Obama had to spend money and time to defend particularly since he NEVER campaigned there.
Well soon the McCain camp is going to have to defend North Carolina for Obama is surging there.
Virginia is going to be all about the ground game. I think this will be a very close state.
I still say McCain's pull out has more to do with Ohio and Florida than any where else.
October 2, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Read all about John McCain's long shameful history at rolling stone mag."
I'm sure that's an ubiased accurate report of the facts...Did Sean Combs write the article?
October 2, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, take a look at it. Filter out the side comments and just look at the data, and -- as a non-comm who probably never got 'the cinderella' treatment -- you may be interested to see how McCain skated through the service. Yeah, it's the Rolling Stone, but there's a lot of solid data, seriously.
October 2, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pork,
He claims he still has those same admirable qualitites and that it's Obama and the Democrats that have forced him to "slightly alter" his demeanor.
Translation - I need to bullshit my way into the hearts and minds of the conservatives.
I've met John McCain a few times loooong before this election. He was one of the nicest people in the world - AT THE TIME. I cannot stand the jagoff (Chicago expression) he's become to win the election.
October 2, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the next headline:
McCain Suspends McCain Campaign to Deal with Emergency Collapse of McCain Campaign.
October 2, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
going back to AZ to regroup...
October 2, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
mind = blown
October 2, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's reached 68 on Intrade.
It's getting pitiful for the other side. But I'm strong. I can handle seeing a colossal failure... as they most assuredly deserve this. And mcShame is going down in Flaming Infamy!
October 2, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
We laugh now but just watch, the taxpayers are going to be stuck bailing out all those worthless McCain futures from InTrade in just over a month.
October 2, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love it when a plan comes together!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyz_2DEah4o
(for the music)
It is indeed a moral (and morale) victory to be forcing McCain to give up on a swing state and move funds and people to a red state.
Awesome!
October 2, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Give me a break. We were never a swing state in anyone's minds except McCain's and Palin's. Ask the people who live in Michigan.
October 2, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
But but but but... what about the 2000 primary? We loved McCain in 2000! Of course that was when he was running against this real lamebrain Republican, from Texas, whatshisname.
I actually voted for McCain in 2000, just because I couldn't vote as a non-card-carrying dem, and that Bush guy scared me (I sensed the darkness in him).
But this year, no way was Michigan going to give McCain another chance at our sensitive hearts.
October 2, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in central Michigan. Obama has field offices all over the state--19, I think. I assume he will keep some of these but pack the rest up and send the paid staff and volunteers next door to Ohio and Indiana, making it that much harder for McCain to win those states.
October 2, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
WI has 43 field offices. And a ground game like nobody's business is well underway!
October 2, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check this out:
Why doesn't John McCain want victory any longer?
October 2, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
"giving up"
Those are the magic words.....
October 2, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
That McCain - he's a quitter.
October 2, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Latest News:
Mcain decides to pull out of Vicki Iseman; no more paid staff, no mailings, and certainly no advertisements.
October 2, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Time for this again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3ijYVyhnn0
October 2, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can smell the victory in the air...sooner or later McCain campaign is going to be pulling out of Pennsylvania pretty soon.
October 2, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bam !
Nice job Henry five
October 2, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
It voted for LBJ in the 1964 landslide and will vote for Obama in the 2008 landslide. YAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
October 2, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
LBJ's brain says, "thanks for your vote in '64".
;)
October 2, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain really wants to win this race, he should put 10 or 15 million into New Jersey. /concern
October 2, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was thinking NY, you know there are alot of spurned Hillary voters there. Ripe for the picking, if you ask me!
October 2, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you say that about NJ? The polls look solid for Obama. Do you doubt them?
October 2, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The polls are close, but that's because NJ hates politicians, but hates Republican politicians more. Republicans often look at perennially close numbers there and dump loads and loads of money into NJ. It's the Republican money pit, and I was in the mood to concern troll a little. Can you blame me? :)
October 2, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Folks, the stock market tanked again today. Tell me if this is not KARMA. This is bound to influence the debate tonight. It's the frame within which everyone will be viewing the debate. The viewers are not gonna care about Biden's past or anything. But they're gonna see the huge gamble that is SP! And they're gonna say to themselves, these gosh darn repubs have messed things up so badly.... and she's one of them!
Poof!
October 2, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the context of the race, that is good news. But in the context of our lives, that is not good. We are about to go an additional $700 billion in hock to China, and it doesn't seem like it will make much difference.
Jan 20th cannot come fast enough, IMO.
October 2, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not rejoicing in any way about the bad economic news. Just stating that by the time of the debate, folks will have gotten another strong dose of repub "success" under bush.... and thus... that makes Palin's row even harder to hoe.
October 2, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
But in the context of our lives, that is not good. We are about to go an additional $700 billion in hock to China, and it doesn't seem like it will make much difference.
I disagree. The fact is that the economy has been wrecked for some time, and this fact was being kept on the down low.
It is a *very* good thing for the markets, the banks, the credit windows, and everything else that's exposed to the big shitpile to TAAAAANK BIIIIIG - RIGHT NOW.
Let's have the truth out right now while people can still make an intelligent decision about this election.
October 2, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I realize I live in a little blue Virginia enclave (i.e. Charlottesville), but I honestly think the state is going to go to Obama. I grew up in the Shenandoah Valley, and that Ralph Stanley ad is about as good of an endorsement as any candidate could hope for--really, it doesn't get much better than that! Also, the Virginia Obama campaign is extraordinarily well-organized. It's the best-run campaign I've ever witnessed. If McCain hopes to keep Va. red, they are going to have to scramble, and I don't think his peeps have the enthusiasm and energy Obama's workers have. (And for all of you who think Virginia has too much racist residue to elect a black candidate, let me remind you that Virginia elected the first African-American governor in the U.S.)
October 2, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: "let me remind you that Virginia elected the first African-American governor in the U.S."
I will indeed let you remind me. Hadn't thought of that.
October 2, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well worth pointing out.
October 2, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I keep telling people! Don't count out Virginia. If we could elect Doug Wilder ("back" in 1989) then we Barack Obama can win the Commonwealth in 2008.
That said, keep working! I went home last weekend, and the town close to mine had a LOT of McCain signs. (Of course, that may be due to the historical nature of that town, but I won't go there.)
After this weekend, all my next weekends belong to Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
October 2, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow... before the debate, McCain was suffering from Premature Congratulation.
Now, with Michigan, he suffering from Premature Evacuation. Poor Cindy...
...but that's the Heartache of Electile Dysfunction.
October 2, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
You'd think he could get lucky and score one of those 4-hour woods, but the poor old guy just keeps pissing himself instead.
October 2, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, wouldn't you love to see an ad with McCain and Palin lolling in two outdoor bathtubs?
I really think that's what Palin is to him... just an ED pill on two legs.
October 2, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I had that twin bathtub image, too. Laughed a lot at that one. Would Couric get a tub, too, so McCain could slip under the bubbles in embarrassment whenever Palin vigorously endorsed a policy he's against?
October 2, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The irony is that Couric's the one who's throwing the football through the tire swing, at the moment! Go figure.
October 2, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a huge development. Tipping point, indeed, even allowing a 6% cushion for the race in the race. To the above poster regarding NH, I think Obama wins NH w reasonable comfort, especially they check out Palin's performance tonight. They aren't THAT kind of Republican in NH; they loved the Old McCain from 2000, not this dishonorable shell who's sold his soul and become his own worst enemy. Some of them just don't realize it yet.
October 2, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush won NH in 2000, McCain now is closer to McCain 2000 than Bush ever was...
October 2, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is all part of the superior qualifications of McCain as Commander in Chief, SFC. His strategy is to respond to the tactical withdrawal of Obama from North Dakota. From there he will, unnanounced, cross the invisible border with South Dakota, surround the Sioux by the Little Big Horn and then....well, you know the rest.
October 2, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
A fair point. But a lot of people voted for Bush in 2004 who would not vote for him today. I'm just saying that NH isn't like Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, etc. Lots of Obama support from MA. I see Obama taking it. I hope I'm right (not that it's all that likely to come to 3 EVs, but who knows?) I realize it probably isn't possible but I wish Obama could take a run at ME; would help in the Senate race, too.
October 2, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sarge, this isn't 2000, or 2004. This is basically a concession, and he's just trying to keep it from turning into a blowout. Like punting when you're down 17 with three minutes left.
In the words of John McCain, "it's OVER!"
October 2, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the race is all about PA, it's over. We are working our a***s off here in the Keystone State and we are NOT going to let it turn red. We have been registering new voters here like you would not believe--my mother and stepfather were out in front of the K-Mart in Phila. on Monday night while my daughter and I were registering voters at the Steelers game (lots of McCainiacs tailgating at Heinz Field, sad to say).
Can't beat a three-generation effort.
October 2, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain draws down in Afghanistan before the job is done, to tie down most of the troops in Iraq.
That is what this move looks like to me.
October 2, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's not feel too excited just yet. If you look at the NY Times map and give Obama New Mexico and Colorado from among their toss-ups he is at 269. So he'd need one more for among New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Is Obama the favorite now? Sure. Is he over the top yet? Hardly.
October 2, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The flip side of this is that McCain has to run the table on all those states you just mentioned. That'd be difficult to pull off even if he were favored in all of them, which he isn't.
October 2, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are not supposed to look at the NY Times map.
It is at the bottom of the tank for Obama.
October 2, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
"What Senator Obama doesn't understand is..."
That line, that attitude, repeated over and over, helped McCain put himself in the hole he's in. He just had to belittle and attack, rather than talking coherently about a vision. So tonight, if Palin tries to go after Biden, it's just going to backfire. Everybody understands that she'd never even heard of Biden until three weeks ago, so her church-lady scolding tonight is gonna flop. This year, people are voting for the candidate with the most credible dream, not the most credible oppo research.
October 2, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has always been a complete fraud, without any of the values and principles that he has been long credited with having.
Read all about John McCain's long shameful history at rolling stone mag.
Use this link to get to it.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/10/must-read-on-mccain.php
October 2, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
VA isn't a head fake by Obama. He's leading now in the RCP average down there, and CNN-Time has him up by 9 points.
October 2, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pulling Out Of Michigan to defend Virginia. This with yesterday's news that McCain is making a $5 million ad buy in Indiana and moving offices there to defend the state. All the while McCain was in Iowa yesterday, a state that has long since gone Obama blue.
Weak candidate. Weak campaign.
October 2, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
WOO-HOO!
I grew up in Michigan, and I feel _so_ vindicated now. I mean, I would have loved to see McCain sink more and more time and money into a state he would never win, but the feeling of knowing he's accepted defeat there is glorious.
BTW, the reasons (IMHO) McCain was screwed in MI (I mean, aside from Michiganders having more sense than that):
1. Kwame Kilpatrick (corrupt mayor of Detroit) resigned the day after Obama told him to.
2. If a hunter who plays hockey doesn't put your ticket over the top in Michigan, nothing ever will.
3. He LIED about BUYING AMERICAN! C'mon! We're not all gung ho about it (my first car was a Honda), but that's not something you lie about in Michigan!
So good riddance Johnny McNasty. The Wolverine State would've picked your bones clean.
October 2, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
SFCWallace, if NH is your only hope now of flipping a blue 2004 state, you're in big trouble. PA is polling away from you as well. In the meantime, Obama has all but locked down two red 2004 states (Iowa and New Mexico) and is looking good for taking at least one of these: Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, and North Carolina. McCain also can't take Missouri or Indiana for granted. It's an increasingly troubled electoral map for him.
October 2, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
No margin of error for Grampy McSame!
Oh, that's the way, uh-huh uh-huh,
I like it, uh-huh, uh-huh.
That's the way, uh-huh uh-huh,
I like it, uh-huh, uh-huh.
That's the way, uh-huh uh-huh,
I like it, uh-huh, uh-huh.
That's the way, uh-huh uh-huh,
I like it, uh-huh, uh-huh.
October 2, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Get out and stay out!
October 2, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
While pulling out of Michigan is meant to save some dough, it will have negative consequences that will cost him dearly.
First, the perception game. McCain has pretty much announced that he's losing and doesn't have enough money and resources to go around.
Second, loosing accelerates the money drain. McCain has held up a sign that says: "Giving money to me is like throwing it away."
October 2, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a very good point.
October 2, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, after reading some posters' comments over at Kos, I can see McCain perhaps making a legitimate play for WI as well (when it comes to 2004 blue states). Kerry and Gore did just eke out wins there in '04 and '00. I think Obama still carries the state, but I suppose WI can be added to the potential-blue pickup states for McCain. I really think PA is falling out of contention for him, though, and I still like Obama's possible road-to-victory much better than McCain's right now.
October 2, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out that new Rasmussen New Mexico poll!
Obama 49
McCain 44
Not good, SFCWallace, not good! :)
October 2, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
The McCains are worth $100million dollars. If Hillary could use her own money, sure makes you wonder, why McCain didn't use his. Probably explains the contempt he has for Obama too! He never dreamed he would lose to Obama, or Hillary.
October 2, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
He can't since he took the $84 million in public funding...
October 2, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josh's comments:
McCain's decision to pull out of Michigan is the news of the day. But here's what strikes me as significant about this: I think this is the McCain campaign telling us that they do not believe the latest shift in the race's momentum is temporary. They believe this is the terrain they are going to have to play on for the final four weeks. And that dictates digging in in the 2004 red states and hoping they can pull off wins in every one of those states.
The problem on this is that some of them are already gone: Iowa (+12.1 at the 538) and New Mexico (+5.8 but trending higher). That's 12 out the door right there.
They're not enough alone to swing the election. But then there's Colorado that's right behind NM, but a bit lower in trending. Those 9 with the 12 above *would* flip the election.
That's without getting into OH, FL, VA which are absolute firewalls for McCain.
We still are a long way out, and we saw how quickly this flipped from "worried" to the "Obama Landslide Potential" a lot of us thought there could be back in June. It remains an insane campaign year with enough twists, turns, nutty candidates and useless media to make our heads explode.
But the "50 State" plan has pushed in enough areas that at this late date we're able to see some massive cracks in the old Red Firewall and some amazing opportunities for states to pick up.
John
October 2, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Take a look at emptywheel's blog on this very topic. She expects mcShame to run racist ads in MI as their strategy:
http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/10/02/michi-gone/#more-2807
October 2, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is most interesting is that the states that Obama will not win are showing the same trends in terms of McCain's huge leads there dropping as well:
http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/jnail/blog/&blogId=4477
8-10% drops similar to the battlegrounds there as well.
Hillary is campaigning in AR next week as well...hmmm
October 2, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
good riddance to bad rubbish.
does this mean that the NRSC ads will go away too?
October 2, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
good riddance to bad rubbish.
does this mean that the NRSC ads will go away too?
October 2, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is great news. In hindsight, if McCain had chosen Romney instead of Einstein, Michigan may be a lot closer now, not withstanding all the other disasters so far.
One prediction for the dreaded "October surprise": Palin poses in Playboy and Penthouse, trying to appeal to the pubescent teenage/40 year old in mom's basement demographic (then the campaign advisors realize most of them can't vote)
October 2, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is very good news for Obama and horrible news for McCain of course.
I think the same should be said for Pennsylvania. Why if his message wasn't resonating with voters in Michigan the McCain camp thinks it will work in Pennsylvania?
The McCain campaign in my opinion have always been a 3 state campaign this entire election Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.
I do believe McCain will lose one of these states and losing either one of these states will be the end of his campaign.
October 3, 2008 2:53 AM | Reply | Permalink