McCain Camp Scaling Back Ads In Key States, Betting On Pennsylvania
In the latest step in their plan for an upset win in Pennsylvania, the McCain campaign is reportedly scaling back its planned ad buys in five other states -- New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota -- to free up money for Pennsylvania and a few other key swing states.
The campaign is spreading out the advertising time it's already bought in these states for the coming week, and will instead stretch it across the final two weeks of the campaign. It's unclear whether the campaign has committed to buying this time and can't back out, or whether they view it as a compromise between staying the course or pulling out entirely.
The key here is what the McCain campaign thinks it can do in Pennsylvania. The state has 21 electoral votes, and it hasn't voted Republican since 1988. If they can overcome their current steep deficit and poach it out of the Democratic column, they could afford to lose Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia and still pull out a win if they can hold on to all the other Bush 2004 states.
I just don't see it. The numbers are awful. Obviously he has to compete somewhere, but it seems odd that he's choosing Pennsylvania, unless the idea is just to "compete" in a blue state so the press can point to something in the remaining days that shows a sign of life.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 21, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, per Al Giordano, part of their calculation may be that PA is seen as more fertile ground for race baiting than, for example, CO or ME. They'd be hoping for a replay of the primary there with lots of pounding of Rev Wright, "bitter", etc. (This anecdote may throw some cold water on that scenario...)
Also, I've heard (can't remember where) that McCain's people will point to the Obama campaign's continued PA focus (recent appearances by Barack, Biden, and both Clintons) as evidence that they're not the only ones who see the state as in play.
October 22, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
How much of a hail mary is this?
The latest polling out of Texas per R2K shows it McCain 52, Obama 40. It would be like Obama deciding his best path to an electoral college win was through Texas and setting out in the last 14 days to make it so.
The mind reels.
October 22, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
A whole rosary full (that's 50 for the non-catholics)!
October 22, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect this will work out about as well as McCain's efforts to flip Minnesota and Wisconsin.
I think the reason they picked PA is that there is no early voting, and they are hoping for some late breaking surprise to help them catch up. The internal numbers on early voting in the McCain campaign must be pretty awful for them to give up on Colorado to focus on PA.
Maybe McCain should concentrate on trying to win California. It has way more electoral votes than Pennsylvania, so that McCain could afford to lose even more Bush 2004 states.
October 21, 2008 11:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Murtha's unfortunate comments are not going to help Obama. It's not that he's *wrong* per se, but, jeez, with friends like these...
October 21, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunate, except that it's, unfortunately, factual.
October 22, 2008 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Relatedly, here's what Rendell says.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/21/rendell-still-a-little-nervous-about-penn-asks-obama-to-return/
October 21, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
A little paranoia at this stage of the campaign is good! Bill and Hillary need to make some rousing speeches out in western PA. And someone give Murth a case of two-week lockjaw!!!
October 22, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Des Moines Register writes: McCain and Palin will be honeymooning in Iowa this weekend with the tax payers' money. A week before the election day, they're going to a state where they are double digit behind.
This is called menage a trois of 3 hotheaded mavericks: McLame-Palin-Schmidt.
October 22, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Brutal.
October 22, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
PA is McCain's least bad option at this point.
October 22, 2008 12:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I saw this today via Memeorandum that, if true, underscores why McCain is betting on PA: Internal polls show a very different picture than the polls we're seeing, and it's a much closer ballgame there.
I also agree with drdr. No early voting means they have exactly two weeks to convince most voters, whereas here in Colorado early voting and mail-in applications have been really popular.
IF the internal polling is what drove them to try to make moves in MN and WI, however, there is probably a big letdown in the future for McCain.
The bottom line is that Obama is forcing him into a strategic defensive position that can only involve a few states. One map I did see shows how McCain could win with PA and without CO, NM, and VA
It does require Ohio, though, and that's no guarantee for anyone today.
It's a matter of poaching a blue state that out-does Obama's poaching of red states.
And it's the only thing that seems to be the strategy du jour. Could change.
I apologize for the unclosed url ref--it won't work.
October 22, 2008 12:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nate@538 just posted a pretty good entry about this.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/mccain-brings-hope-to-pennsylvania.html
October 22, 2008 12:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has already proven to be stratigically astute against an opponent who is short on money. I feel certain that Obama has the best internal polling for Pennsylvania.
No doubt it's going to get nasty these last two weeks...McCain's campaign will find new lows by using Wright to try to invoke racism even more. But I wouldn't be surprised if Obama has one more October/November surprise up his sleeve (similar to Powell's endorsement). As promised, he brings a gun to a knife fight.
October 22, 2008 1:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just as I have learned to stop second guessing the Obama campaign because it turns out they are far, far better at this than I, I have also learned to stop thinking the McCain campaign has any good reason for what they are doing, beyond random flailing.
October 22, 2008 4:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
In a lovely irony, Hillary will work PA for Obama and help him win it.
October 22, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
How's that work?
"Hi, folks. Please forget all the racist innuendo and character smears I was peddling here this summer. Barack is really a great guy."
October 22, 2008 8:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oskieoskie, give it a rest. That battle has already been fought and the armistice signed. Time to move on.
October 22, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain thinks he can flip a state in 2 weeks that some polls show he's lagging in by up to 13 points? While losing in so many others around the country?
Bartender, I'll have what John's having ...
October 22, 2008 3:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain thinks he can flip a state in 2 weeks that some polls show he's lagging in by up to 13 points? While losing in so many others around the country?
Bartender, I'll have what John's having ...
October 22, 2008 3:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um, I'm pretty sure McHigh left the bar and met up with his pharmacist weeks ago. Looks like LSD with a bump of amphetamines. Oh yeah, and Viagra for the Iowa honeymoon.
October 22, 2008 7:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not having read Kennedy & Palast's article in Rolling Stone, I wonder about the big move that
McCain is making in Pa. With the result in Ohio four years ago, I've since wondered to what degree the pentecostal nut-jobs may have infiltrated the polls and tabulation apparatus (and/or organized crime).
An outright theft would send people into the streets to a degree never seen in this country. The ensuing violence would put big smiles on the faces of Rush and Dick Cheney.
The trap door then drops open?
October 22, 2008 4:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
If the polling in Pennsylvania remains strong in Obama's favor and then, during the final days of the campaign, if In-Trade buys in favor of a McCain win were to reverse and rise exponentially, against common sense, I'd be VERY concerned.
See previous message for explanation.
October 22, 2008 4:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
mcpalin = giuliani
pennsylvania = florida
hail mary = epic fail
October 22, 2008 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Forget polling who cares about that. What you have to realize is the amount of newly registered voters in the state. we have more than 1 million more democrats in PA than Republicans. Turn out the vote (which trust me the O camp will do) and we can win.
October 22, 2008 8:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
And in that spirit, I just now sent another $50 (for the "Final Decision" deadline).
October 22, 2008 8:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why would they pull out of a state where polls show them down five in order to try for a state where polls show them down 10?
Maybe they're using the same mathemetician for political strategy who calculated that they could give another trillion away in tax cuts for the rich and balance the budget by cutting earmarks.
Or the same one who told them that they could win by picking Failin and going with a wingnut/base strategy in a year when the economy is first and foremost on everyone's minds.
October 22, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Electoral votes. Pennsylvania has 21 of them. Also Pennsylvania was the hardest fought Dem primary State and things got heated and ugly there. You have the race factor, along with the "cling to guns" factor - it gives McCain his best chance.
Also I think ego is involved and he doesn't want to be playing defense, he wants to be seen on offense.
October 22, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
That would be the logical explanation. I guess from their perspective, better to roll the dice and gamble on a longshot for 21 electoral votes than play it safer and go for a more attainable 9 votes.
If they're basing this calculus on the Democratic primary in Penna. that would be as stupid as selecting Palin, in my view. Over and over again, the idea that primary results can predict general results is being shown to be a myth.
And the more his ego is part of their campaign decisions, the better.
October 22, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Chris Bowers has the most cogent explanation I've seen yet -- a lot of it based on where early voting takes place and the fact that Penna. doesn't have it.
http://openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9288
October 22, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
o.k. - I admit, I'm a conspiracy kook. But if we loose, it will be the result of a combination of Pentecostal nut-jobs and organized crime AND push-pulling the silly putty mindset of the rural vote in more states than Pennsylvania. If we loose, this year will make the 2000 and 2004 thefts miniscule in comparison. Everything will fly apart.
October 22, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, General McCain closes out his campaign with an election eve rally at Gettysburg.... Rush Limbaugh plays Lewis Armistead. Chris Buckley plays Richard Garnett. Rendell plays Meade and our man plays the hero, Winfield Scott Hancock:
angel of our best nature.
October 22, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain does whacky stuff like campaigning in Pennsylvania (instead of defending North Carolina Florida and Colorado, which would also help other Republicans.)
This isn't new: The night before super tuesday McCain came up to Boston to campaign on Mitt's home turf. Didn't matter of course, Romney won Massachusetts. It was a show of bravado, not strategy.
McCain is a typical gambler, he thinks in terms of surprise outcomes, he enjoys long odds because the payoff is potentially huge.
October 22, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink