Breaking: House Passes Bailout Package. Now What?
The House passed the bailout plan moments ago by a comfortable margin, 263 to 171. The political world exhales, and the strangest presidential campaign in recent memory takes yet another turn.
Now what?
The passage of the plan has the potential to help McCain a bit. It could rally the markets, ease everyone's sense of impending apocalypse (a bit), and allow McCain to expand the campaign beyond the economy into areas where he might have a hope of turning things around.
McCain desperately needs the conversation to get back to the question of Barack Obama's fitness to be commander in chief: Time is running out, and while McCain still holds a decided national security edge, Obama's performance amid the crisis has in a broad sense closed the "preparedness" gap between the candidates.
But on the immediate political question of which candidate, if either, will benefit, McCain's unlikely to bank any real political gains. His earlier, and higher-profile, effort to insert himself into the process was a bust. The public has clearly decided it favors Obama's handling of the crisis. And Obama has been edging into a more active role amid the evolving meltdown, calling House members to rally them behind the bailout and repeatedly demanding on the stump that Congress pass the plan.
Also key: A majority of GOPers again opposed the plan. Ninety one House Republicans voted for it, and 108 voted against, again casting doubt on McCain's ability to rally members of his own party behind a measure that he suggested was necessary to rescue the Republic from doom.
Still, predictions are basically futile. The latest news could shift the dynamic of the race (again) in unforeseen ways and send us (again) into uncertain territory as the race enters the final stretch.
What's next? I don't know but I'm sure than McCain will attack Obama for some stupid reason in no time.
October 3, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think we're in that weird situation with mcShame now. Like we were in with Hillary in the Spring. The game is over. But not for the opponent. Thus I think we can expect some pointless theatrics... so it keeps the base "cooking" and believing in spite of all evidence to the contrary.
In this case, however, it's even worse for the "other side" - due to something called "early voting."
Which makes the whole thing even more pointless for mcShame and the Dame... and all the more delicious for us.
Even the air seems more bracing! Healthier. The sun brighter. What a great Fall it's going to be!
October 3, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, indeed ... I love the fall every year but this time you are right -- it's cleaner and better and nicer!
October 3, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's next? We all hold our breaths for one full month, cross our fingers and hope that Americans look at the overwhelming evidence that points to Obama as our next president.
Then, when the election dust settles, we all get to work to make this country better.
I hope...
http://thepajamapundit.com/
October 3, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
9th straight month of job loss and the entire time McCain was singing the praises of the 'fundamentals of the economy.'
No way this race goes off economic issues.
October 3, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg I don't buy the pundits' insistence that Americans hate this bailout. I think if you asked correctly, almost everyone would say that something needed to be done -
I really cannot gage how well people understand how completely interdependent all our financial institutions are, but I think they got a big fat lesson in the last 10 days.
I don't think there is one thing that is going to save John McLame.
October 3, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the bailout is like going to the dentist. A necessary evil. But we do it.
October 3, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate it, but I hate the idea of a run on the banks worse.
October 3, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
And as soon as it passed, the Dow went down 150 points. Weird.
October 3, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not really, Investors realised that it isn't a silver bullet.
October 3, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't pay attention to the Dow so much. It's a lagging indicator. Hedge funds and credit flow is where the action is - or isn't.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 3, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the market is still above where it started.
October 3, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're both exactly right.
October 3, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Might not even be related to the news.
October 3, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
And in any case, the market adage is, "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news."
October 3, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I was a McCain strategist, I would be thinking:
"What can we do to turn the race around and put McCain in front?"
1) Stunts are out. He's overplayed that hand.
2) Issues are out, Americans only care about the economy, and they agree with Obama there.
3) Personalities are out, Obama has a reassuring, calm personality and McCain seems erratic and angry.
4) That leaves.. constant smear attacks, which are ineffective seeing as Obama has no real dirt on him which hasn't been extensively hashed and rehashed in the primaries.
Therefore, McCain is royally screwed. Quod Erat Demonstratum.
Obama victory in november.
October 3, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
They won't throw in the towel. Smear attacks, and a lot of ads about how Obama will raise your taxes and isn't ready to be CIC. Palin will be out whipping up the base over the abortion issue. Ineffective, but it's all they got.
October 3, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like flogging a nag.
October 3, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not saying they will throw in the towel (Although.. with the michigan pullout)..
But they certainly can't win at this point.
October 3, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please stop calling it a bailout.
It is not that. It is money mittens to keep billionaire Wall St. urchins warm this winter.
October 3, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even all the money those billionaires have isn't enough to make up the massive losses that will affect the market without the bailout.
October 3, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
And this is coming from someone with the same first name as you.
October 3, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which is why they need to stop calling it a bailout. I understand that it is needed. I was just having a little fun playing around with the notion of picking a better marketing slogan.
October 3, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for that. It never ceases to amaze me that people look at this shit so shallowly.
I hate this bill, but like I said - I hate the idea of a run on the banks a whole lot worse.
And if something didn't shore up the credit base immediately, everything looked to me like a possible death spiral and I think - that's how I read Obama and the Democrats - that's how they saw it.
October 3, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's rubbish. It's a global problem that we started. To think otherwise is provincial. We had to step up to the plate, regardless.
The good news for Obama is that nothing will turn around between now and the election. McCain is toast. There's no Hollywood happy ending to this tale of economic woe, certainly not in the short term. More likely this is will play out like a European film; reality will grip us all and we will find some bittersweet meaning of economic happiness within our own means. It will be black and white.
Obama wins in a landslide unless there's a hollywood manufactured terrorist or national security incident, and even then, I like his chances of winning.
But we had to bailout or rescue or whatever you want to call it, because it was a mess of our making.
October 3, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clean-up costs.
October 3, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
yep.
October 3, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word.
October 3, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clusterfuck?
October 3, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't agree that most Americans hate the bailout either.
Also, the economic news will remain bad for quite some time despite today's action.
October 3, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is more hate that we were put in a position where we needed a bill like this.
October 3, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah = that's the thing I think Obama and Biden have hammered home - if it needed to be already -
The failure of our economy is the fault of the GOP. It is their failure.
October 3, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
now what?
now california is asking for seven billion dollars.
October 3, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, see http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/221684.php
October 3, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
That will be the debate going forward. Economy will still be king although McCain will try to attack McCain on his "associations", "the surge", and taxes.
October 3, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I assume this is Candidate McCain attacking Senator McCain?
October 3, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Considering how much he flip-flops, this is an accurate statement.
October 3, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, McCain is sort of running against 2000 McCain already, and there's been signs that he's a couple cards short of a full deck...
October 3, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
In both debates, the focus groups had absolutely no response when the topic of the surge came out of McCain's or Palin's mouth. When Obama and Biden talked about withdrawing and making Iraq responsible, big positive responses. I think this pretty reflective of the independents/undecideds out there. They would be wise to avoid the surge and focus on domestic issues.
October 3, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. Haven't they seen the polls the last two years? Don't they remember what happened in the 2006 election?
The surge as an issue is a non-starter.
October 3, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
{{{{{{SWOON!}}}}} Who are you and if you're male, do you believe in polyandry?
Nobody ever talks about 2006 but me. It's like it never happened.
Thank you.
October 3, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I certainly do! Now if we can only convince my wife...
By the way, been following you out here for many weeks, and I know you had a birthday yesterday. Hope it was a great one.
October 3, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pelosi's speaking. "We have to make sure this never happens again" WTF???
Um..we had regulation in place - remember the crash of 1929?
It was the stinking republicans - Phil Gramm, John McCain and the like who rolled back those regulations and allowed this crap to happen.
So who's to say in 80 years when this tragedy has passed that greedy bastards will not roll regulation back again?
Those who do not learn from the past are destined to repeat it.
October 3, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
In defence of the republicans (I never thought I'd say this), many key democrats were lax and permissive about the removal of regulations where they should have been actively working against it.
October 3, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
In part this had to do with the Dixiecrats who were basically Republicans. As well as during the Clinton era, the general sense that Dems had to move to the center and become more like Repubs if they were going to be competitive.
Obama isn't as far left on economic issues as the Right would like to make him out to be, but Obama will, I believe, be unlike Clinton and institute a progressive/liberal philosophy in our country's approach to the business world and the economy.
October 3, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Clinton did help this whole thing along -
But the circumstances as they were when he was in office really did logically lead to the notion that the restrictions the regulations placed on us were hurting us in the global marketplace.
It made some stupid sense at the time. It was just based on a long term idea that was too optimistic.
October 3, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
See what happened, my dears, is George W Bush. The idea with loosening regs would have continued possibly to work for us if we had continued on the same track with the surplus Clinton piled up for us.
No one foresaw Commander CooCoo Bananas happening - no one thought Herbert Hoover was going to come back from the grave.
October 3, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh, I don't think even Hoover, if he'd come back, would have done as bad as ol' W.
October 3, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kamatsu here's Rep. Ed Markey (MA-D) on the House floor back on 10/19/00:
"In the Commerce Committee, Democratic members worked cooperatively with the Republican majority to craft a bipartisan bill that addressed investor protection, market integrity, and competitive parity issues raised by the original Agriculture Committee version of the bill. As a result, we passed our bill with unanimous bipartisan support. Following that action, we stood ready to work with members of the Banking and Agriculture Committees to reconcile our three different versions of the bill and prepare it for House floor action. But after just a few bipartisan staff meetings, the Democratic staff was told that Democrats would henceforth be excluded from all future meetings, and that the Republican majority leader was going to take the lead in drafting the bill. What's more, we were also told the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee (Phil Gramm) was invited into those negotiations--despite the fact that this bill comes within the Agriculture Committee's jurisdiction over in the Senate and the Senate has not even passed a CEA bill. In fact, the Senate Agriculture Committee decided not to include the swaps provisions sought by the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee when the committee reported S . 2697, because these proposals were viewed as so controversial."
Dems didn't roll over, they were cut out of the process time and time again.
October 3, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I listened to Durbin during the Senate debate Wednesday, and he recalled a vote on an amendment in 2001 which in the words of Phil Gramm would have "destroyed the Sub Prime credit market". The Amendment lost 50-49. Durbin said, "wouldn't it have been great if we had destroyed the subprime market in 2001?"
(I am currently looking up the bill and Amendment in question)
I totally agree with your assesment. There wasn't a consensus to pushback on deregulation on the Dem side, but there were some serious attempts.
October 3, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
This might be a stupid question...anyone else going to see "An American Carol" tonight? (Dinner and a movie; just doing my part to keep the ecomomy rolling)
October 3, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fuck no. Next question.
October 3, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would it be weird for me to point out that that pic is pretty hot?
October 3, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm holding out for "W". Should be fun.
October 3, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, that is one way to spin it and I think that we will do well to push that meme. On the other hand, I expect that a month from now when the economy has gone down further since the bailout (and it will; even if this bailout package works, it will simply serve to make the decline less steep, not to turn things around altogether), the Republicans hope to run on a platform of having opposed the "failed Pelosi-democratic giveaway to Wall St fat cats."
It will be a shameless mass of nonsense propaganda, but shameless nonsense is the GOP's bread butter.
October 3, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
er "bread and butter."
October 3, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here in Australia the right blamed one of it's greatest Prime Ministers (Paul Keating) for High interest rates in his first term as treasurer directly after one of their own government's economic mismanagement caused them to skyrocket in the first place.
And we almost bought it too.
October 3, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought our bread and butter was voter suppression...it's hard to keep this stuff straight.
October 3, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink