First Post-Conviction Poll Shows Likely Loss For Stevens
The first public poll of Alaska conducted entirely after GOP Sen. Ted Stevens was convicted on all counts in his corruption trial shows a probable Democratic pickup in this deep-red state -- but Stevens is doing surprisingly well for a newly-minted convicted felon.
The new numbers from Rasmussen: Dem candidate Mark Begich 52%, Stevens 44%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Uncle Ted had taken a 49%-48% edge over Begich. So apparently getting convicted of a felony a week before the election can be quantified as taking five points off of a candidate's poll numbers.
On the one hand, this is still a deep-red state, and Stevens might have an outside shot at getting re-elected even with the conviction. On the other hand, the Democrat is up eight points a week out from Election Day, and more and more Republicans are calling upon Stevens to resign.
And those Republican leaders aren't the only ones calling for Stevens' resignation. The poll also shows that 52% of likely votes want Stevens to resign -- the same percentage as those who say they're voting for Begich.
I love this - the most senior Republican in Congress.
Ha ha! [/Nelson]
October 29, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
If stevens wins, what are the chances the democratic senate (along with the several republicans who have, rather conveniently, said he should step down) will vote to expel him?
Politically, it probably won't help the numbers as Palin will just appoint another republican, so would it be worth the trouble?
October 29, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
They have special elections up there. Palin doesn't have the authority to appoint a nose hair plucker.
October 29, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a question regarding Palin's ability to call for a special election if Stevens' seat is vacated due to his resignation. Here it is. Why resign now, when the term only has a few weeks remaining? The answer I come to is that the Democrat is likely to win next week's election, meaning that Alaska will have a Democratic Senator for the next 6 years, a real thorn in the side of the governor (who is that?). OTOH, if he resigns immediately, Palin might schedule a new election, giving the Republicans the chance to find a stronger candidate and more of a chance to retain the seat than they do now. Comments?
October 29, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's exactly why all the Republicans are crying NOW for him to resign.
Palin probably even has a certain well dressed Republican Govenor in need of more national and foreign policy experience in mind to run in the special run-off election.
I can't imagine the circus that would ensue if the Democrats get to 59 seats on Nov 4 and this seat is still unfilled due to a delayed special election. Millions of dollars would flood into Alaska.
October 29, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Next Tuesday's AK Sen election will happen on schedule whether or not Stevens resigns.
There are two separate issues here: Stevens resigning (1) from his current seat in the Senate, and (2) as a candidate for AK's next six-year Senate term.
Issue (1) is answered above. I don't know about the timing. I kinda doubt they'd have a special election to fill the next two months of Steven's term.
As for issue (2), I can only guess that some state Republican committee could nominate a replacement. But it wouldn't surprise me if it were too late for that.
October 29, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does AK have early voting? If so Uncle Felon could have banked a lot of votes already.
October 29, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes it does: http://ltgov.state.ak.us/elections/abinfo.php
October 29, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I voted yesterday and there were a lot of people voting early. No results posted yet that I can find:
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/
But steady lines of folks are coming in:
http://www.newsminer.com/news/2008/oct/29/early-voters-lining-polls-alaska/
I did not vote for Stevens and made my decision long before he was convicted of the charges. In my opinion, it isn't that difficult to avoid even the appearance of impropriety when you are serving in a public capacity. You just give up the ability to work deals and get something for nothing in exchange for serving the greater good - it is that simple.
October 29, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, that's only .71 points off Steven's poll numbers for each of his 7 felony convictions.
Can we start talking about margins of error in terms of triple homicides from now on?
October 29, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
October 29, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ask Tim Mahoney.
October 29, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
Off topic but you may want to take a peek over at NC senate race. Dole just got served with a "cease and desist" order from Hagan for a really disgusting ad.
October 29, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everyone should see the story on the front page - Cuban Americans were surrounded and threatened at a Palin rally and the police had to rescue them.
She needs to be shut down now.
October 29, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like KO is going to have a list of folks for his "Worst Person in the World" segment tonight. :)
October 29, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
nate silver predicted conviction swing of 5.8%.
October 29, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really the reason Uncle Ted will loose is not the moral plunge. He won't have the pull for pork anymore. That's all there is to it.
It's Alaska, m'dears.
October 29, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re-elect a CONVICTED FELON to the Senate AFTER he's been found guilty - oh, wouldn't that make Palin look good in 2012!
Maybe Palin can ignore Alaska completely and claim she grew up and has roots in 20 different states like Hillary claimed in the primaries!
October 29, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow - 44% of Alaska would still vote for a septuply-convicted felon, just because of the (R) by his name.
If that doesn't say IOKIYAR, nothing does.
October 29, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
as Ted likes to say..."No!"
No, you are staying in AK as even the voters there aren't sending you back to Washington....
October 29, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Still up in the air--AK has early voting that began 15 days before Nov. 4 (don't feel like doing the math). Link's above in a reply to Earthling.
It would be weird if early voting cinched this already. Anyone know early voting AK Dem/Repub ratios in AK?
October 29, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
As the King of pork in a huge state with a tiny population, there's probably 44% of the voting population that owe their jobs to To Ted.
October 29, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
psyclone,
what does IOKYIAR stand for?
-scratching my head on that one, sorry,
the petty is mean...
October 29, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's OK if you're a republican.
October 29, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
But that's not what Ted said yesterday!
October 29, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
McShit and Uncle Ted should both sit out the inauguration. Not only that, they ought to take a trip together, spend a week on Turtle Island at Fiji:
http://www.neilyoung.com/lwwtoday/index.html
WHAT a couple!
October 29, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink