Election Central Morning Roundup
Polls: Obama Ahead In The Battlegrounds -- And Running Close In Arizona
The new CNN state polls: Obama is up 55%-43% in Pennsylvania; up 52%-46% in North Carolina; up 52%-45% in Nevada; up 51%-47% in Ohio; and is trailing McCain 53%-46% in McCain's home state of Arizona. McCain will probably win Arizona in the end -- but as for the rest of those states, it's looking more and more likely that this election will be an Electoral College landslide for Obama.
Obama In Florida, Virginia And Missouri; Biden In Missouri And Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is campaigning in three swing states today: An 11 a.m. ET rally in Sarasota, Florida; a 5:45 p.m. ET rally in Virginia Beach, Virginia; and a 10:30 p.m. ET rally in Columbia, Missouri. Joe Biden has an 8:30 a.m. ET rally in Arnold, Missouri, and will then go to Pennsylvania for a rally in Williamsport and a rally later at night in Allentown.
McCain In Ohio; Palin In Missouri And Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning through Ohio today: Rallying his supporters at 10 a.m. ET in the aptly-named town of Defiance, Ohio; A 3:10 a.m. ET rally in Elyria; and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Mentor. Sarah Palin has a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, then goes on to Pennsylvania for a 4:15 p.m. ET rally in Erie and a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.
McCain: Okay, Obama Isn't A Socialist, But He's Still A Radical
In an interview with Larry King last night, John McCain had this to say when asked bluntly whether Barack Obama is a socialist: "No, but I do believe that he has been in the far left of American politics, and stated time after time that he believes in spreading the wealth around."
NYT: Early Voting Is A Hit
The New York Times reviews the latest early-voting stats, showing that early voting has now earned itself a major place in American politics. It's now expected that a full third of the total votes across the country will have been cast early, relieving congestion at the polls on Election Day as voters whose minds were made up get in their say beforehand -- for example, I mailed my absentee ballot this morning.
RNC Ad: Can You Wait While Obama Learns To Be President?
Here's the RNC's new attack ad, airing in targeted states, hitting Barack Obama on inexperience:
"Would you get on a plane with a pilot who has never flown?" the announcer asks. "Would you trust your child with someone who has never cared for children? Would you go under with a surgeon who has never operated?"
and this cant be good for McCain:
ExxonMobil Posts Biggest Quarterly US Profit In History
October 30, 2008 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Would you get on a plane with a pilot who has never flown?" the announcer asks. "Would you trust your child with someone who has never cared for children? Would you go under with a surgeon who has never operated?"
So, only former Presidents get to be President?
October 30, 2008 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
My thoughts exactly. When, exactly, was McCain already president? Did Bush let him have a practice run and not tell anyone?
October 30, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, only those who have graduated from President school. Or something.
October 30, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Only John McCain knows what it's like to come in fifth from the bottom of his class in President School.
October 30, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kind of a poor metaphor for them to make. I mean, McCain's crashed how many jets?
October 30, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
lol I believe it's five? And maybe just the one while on duty?
October 30, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! Good point!
And remember what General Wesley Clark said,
'how does being shot down and surviving in a POW camp qualify one to be president?'
October 30, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right on the money.
Besides, this ad accuses Obama of never having been in charge of anything and a previous RNC hatchet job had the line "no executive experience."
Ummm, when exactly has McShame run anything? What executive experience has he ever had?
Right now, the candidates' executive skills are on full display in their campaigns, huge, complex, multi-million dollar enterprises. Case closed.
October 30, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Moose, as said above, he has run a few planes into the round. That can't be denied.
October 30, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
True. He makes Bush look like a better aviator by comparison. Which is apt, since it's crystal clear McShame would be even worse than the worst president in history.
October 30, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been wondering about this, too. I'm guessing that either they're considering his time as a Navy officer as "executive experience," or they're just trying to gloss it over and hide behind "years of experience." The fact that it makes anyone who thinks about it scratch their head does suggest that the ad is pretty wide of the mark.
October 30, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would you get on a plane with a pilot who has crashed three times?
October 30, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has crashed multiple planes. You'd think he'd have at least stayed away from that construct.
October 30, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Duh. Note to self: check the WHOLE string of comments before posting.
October 30, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Which is a problem, given the 22nd Amendment.
Not to mention the paradox of how to become a former President before becoming President.
October 30, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not to mention that actually thousands of people do go under the knife of medical students doing their first operation. Every year. The fact that we don't hear about it shows how successful they are because they have a trained, experienced surgeon standing behind them keeping an eye on things and advising them. Kind of like, well, a Vice President who's been picked for his experience and ability to advise the President.
Instead of winking, of course.
October 30, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't McCain crash three planes? I don't think I'd use the pilot analogy if I were them.
October 30, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think I'd use the pilot analogy if I were them. McCain's an experienced pilot . . . who crashed three planes.
October 30, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would prefer an elite pilot, child care provider, or surgeon.
October 30, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
You forgot to add the Mason-Dixon poll of PA that shows Obama ahead by only 4: 47-43. Probably an outlier; let's hope it's not predictive.
October 30, 2008 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Given where every other PA poll is, you can safely take that as an extreme worst-case scenario. Which is an awfully nice place to be.
October 30, 2008 9:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
From a trend perspective it's actually good news for Obama. I think the last time Mason-Dixon was in the field it was 46(O)-44(M). So I wouldn't get too stressed over this poll.
October 30, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Better question for the RNC ad: Would you get on a plane with a pilot who has already crashed 3 planes in the past?
October 30, 2008 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dammit, bvd beat me to it. But I believe the figure is actually 5!
October 30, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tee hee hee!
October 30, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dammit. Me too. And it was 5.
October 30, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
for example, I mailed my absentee ballot this morning.
Yeah, but what good will a Hillary Clinton write-in vote do?
(just kidding)
October 30, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone else getting just a shade anxious about the national polls tightening?
I would just love to see a small uptick for Obama in the next couple of days, which would be more than enough to carry him through to Tuesday.
(I know things are still looking good in PA, CO and VA and that is all that matters, but when the DKos poll is down to 5, I get a little nervous)
October 30, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Things are tightening here in Missouri. The Obama campaign is great, but the racists and evangelicals are pushing hard. Everything depends on GOTV.
October 30, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not nervous one bit. I fully expect that McCain will end up with around 48% of the national vote. What I don't expect is for him to PA or VA. And without one of those two, he has no path to victory. None. Nada. Nathan.
October 30, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'd just like a smaaaaaallll Obama uptick. Just enough to get through the weekend.
I'm hoping the informercial will do that.
October 30, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's up in Zogby (close to 7 points versus 5; and Zogby is using a 2004 turnout model). I expect his lead will expand again with Rasmussen.
All I want are consistent/stable polls in VA, PA, NM, CO, NV, IA.
October 30, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course that wouldn't be a bad thing but they really don't matter bro. Also, McCain will get 46 MAX. He WILL NOT touch 48 percent of the vote, he hasn't all year so why would that start now?
October 30, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
What a crappy RNC ad (I am going by the transcript here, vid not working).
McCain should be stupid to draw the pilot analogy.
And about caring for children - What price Malia & Sasha ?
The repugs have scraped teh morans barrel.
October 30, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
These questions are SOOO STUPID. Does the RNC realize that McCain has never been president either? Technically, you can ask the same questions of McCain. UGH!
http://thepajamapundit.com/
October 30, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gooner,
Obama went up 2.2 points in Zogby. (They do not include the Kos poll)
On 10/23, the RCP Average was 50.1 vs 42.6. So far today, the Average is 50.0 vs 43.8.
I think the Kos poll was overly optimistic and came back down to earth. I'm not sure if something happened internally or what - but a 5 point McCain jump from one week to the next seems pretty absurd when the other polls are really just showing about a 1% uptick for McCain.
Maybe this was Markos strategy to motivate us this week.... :)
October 30, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby is throwing darts at the wall- I know Obama had to come off the 8-9 point lead a little bit, but I'm hoping it's more than 2-3 on election day.
October 30, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
You misunderstood. His Zogby lead increased by about 2, from 5 to 7. Feel better now? ;)
October 30, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, I understood. I was simply saying that Zogby's polls are crap.
After digging around a bit, I think that it's clear that this uptick for McCain is coming from republicans in red states coming home. It will mean bigger wins for McCain in South Caroline, etc., but as long as the numbers in CO, PA, VA, IA and NM don't move, Obama should be fine.
October 30, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Was this Mason-Dixon PA poll the one Joe Scarborough was teasing about this morning? I had to turn the show off; obviously the guy has a point of view, but this morning he seemed cranky about everything Obama, bitching about the commercial buy, the press, the LA Times video, the press being sexist about Palin (pleeze!). But he kept whispering about some secret PA poll that was going to terrify the democrats. Mason-Dixon is it?
October 30, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Joe the Scarborough seemed cranky to me this morning too. I'm pretty sure this was the poll he was talking about.
October 30, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Joe is in full partisan mode. I can take him when he gets that way.
October 30, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Joe is in full partisan mode. I can take him when he gets that way.
October 30, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Uugghhh...Scarborough has been absolutely unbearable lately. He just seems extraordinarily pissed off at everything. After his rantings this morning, I decided to swear him off until after the election.
October 30, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad I'm not the only one. To be honest, he looks dull and squinty as if he were hung over.
I've made the opposite pledge, Schrodinger. I only turn the show on to catch Chuck Todd who has real information. After the Obama victory celebration Wednesday morning, I'm turning off MJ for good. Mika is fine, but Willie is too snide and Joe asks the most leading, thick-headed questions around.
October 30, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
October 30, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
*I'm* gonna look that way next Wednesday morning, but at least I'll be smiling!
October 30, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scarborough has been absolutely unbearable lately
That's assuming he's *ever* bearable.
October 30, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I reached the same pledge a little over a week ago. The entire vibe of the show has become depressing. It's completely dominated by Scarborough's bitterness. And Scarborough's attacks are beginning to approach the credibility level of Hannity.
I really don't like the regulars on the show, but sometimes watch because they often have interesting guests. But I don't even see why sane Republicans would want to watch that show these days. It's like a morgue.
October 30, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fix of my last post - The RCP average does not include KOS
And yeah, the Mason-Dixon poll is way outside every other poll. Seriously, if you are going by the average of all of the polls you are doing yourself a disservice. It seems to me that the best way to understand all of the assumptions and bias is to balance them against each other.
October 30, 2008 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Mason-Dixon Poll (PA) is actually GOOD news for Obama. He's gained a point and McCain has lost a point since they were last in the field.
October 30, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's what people need to realize. O is even gaining in crap outlier polls.
October 30, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, piloting a plane is the absolute worst metaphor for the McCainiacs to use.
Like when he keeps saying "I know how to win a war!" Huh?
Or "I know how to deal with an enemy!" Uh, lie on your back and whimper until they decide to let you go?
These folks are just plain stupid.
October 30, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I know how to deal with an enemy!" Uh, lie on your back and whimper until they decide to let you go?
Classy as ever.
October 30, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
You must admit it is stupid for McCain to utter the words "I know how to deal with an enemy" or "I know how to win a war."
Surely.
October 30, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL, exactly.
October 30, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I meant that Zogby had Obama coming up 2.2 points. They have him up by 7. And last weeks numbers were skewered by a 54 day on Wednesday for Obama. Look at the trend from when they started polling and figure in for the one weird day and they are pretty smooth.
Another example of why you can't just look at polls individually - Rasmussen now has Obama up my 51 to 46. Yesterday folks freaked at Obama being a 50 to 47.
But the difference between the two days numbers could have been is being at 50.5 vs. 46.6 and today it being 50.6 vs 46.5.
October 30, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
and not these polls were taken before the infomercial. I expect the polls to change tomorrow:)
You can ignore the maxon-dison poll. it is a repub poll.
Nate mentioned it the other day.
October 30, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Folks going on and on about Joe Scarborough here and at DailyKos. I just don't get it.
I know Joe is a Republican and his show has Republican-is-good-Democrat-Party-bad slant to it. So I don't watch it. i know that it will only make my blood boil, this parade of half-truths and outright lies.
So why do you watch it? It's like saying, "Oh, God, I hate foreign films! Hate 'em! And I can't believe what they show every morning at the Foreign Film Cinema down the street I go to every day! Uggh! Aaagh!"
October 30, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't watch Morning Joe, but I think it's a good idea to know what the other side is saying. It tends to temper one's point of view and balance one's perspective.
October 30, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
As Rachel M. says, never forget the "rubber/glue" rule: if Caribou Barbie gets to take a crash course in How To Be A President complete with on-the-job training (and considering the age, infirmity and temperament of her running mate, I would hope she's already deep into this course!), then why is it more dangerous for Obama to become President?
Ah yes, that winning GOP tactic: hypocrisy.
October 30, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do they honestly not see that when they use this line of attack it sticks to Palin?
Lizard brains, all of them.
October 30, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Me thinks their brainstems are over-stimulated.
October 30, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes McCain has never been President and he takes is own analogy to far since we was a pilot. I guess being a pilot and having flown is the same as having been president. Isn't that reall his whole I have experience argument?
October 30, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can you wait for Governor Palin to read the constitution?
Can you wait for Senator McCain to read Alan Greenspan's book?
October 30, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought we were using Greenspan's book for heating fuel this winter. And if you believe Palin's interview with Couric, even if you put the constitution in front of Palin and she read it, she couldn't name it as a document later.
October 30, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
new rules:
no new pilots - only existing pilots get to be pilots
no new parents - only existing parents get to have children
no new surgeons - only existing surgeons get to perform surgeries
no new presidents - only past presidents get to be presidents.
October 30, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Would you go under with a surgeon who has never operated?"
SOMEONE has to be first... or we wouldn't have any surgeons.
October 30, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wish the executive experience argument would go away. All I hear here in Alaska is how Palin has more experience than anyone because she has executive experience.
She does not know what the vice president does.
She has zero foreign policy experience and other than cramming for her debate has spent about three minutes thinking about foreign policy. Palin is "running stuff" here in Alaska. She is our Decider.
Experience??? Shut up already.
October 30, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
First time Obama has run a presidential campaign.
Second time for McDrill.
When was the last time we heard anything from the republicans that withstood the least amount of scrutiny? Seriously?
October 30, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
First time Obama has run a presidential campaign.
Second time for McDrill.
When was the last time we heard anything from the republicans that withstood the least amount of scrutiny? Seriously?
October 30, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink