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Election Central Morning Roundup

Polls: Obama Ahead In Florida, Ohio And Pennsylvania
A new set of Quinnipiac polls gives Barack Obama the lead in all three of the largest swing states: He's up 51%-43% in Florida, 50%-42% in Ohio, and 54%-39% in Pennsylvania, all outside the ±3.4% margins of error. Three weeks ago, Quinnipiac put Obama ahead in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but behind by seven points in Florida. The reason for Obama's surge: The economy.

Bill Clinton Campaigning For Obama Today
Bill Clinton is holding two rallies for Barack Obama today in Florida, after spending months being criticized for showing too little enthusiasm for the Democratic nominee. The first event is at 12 p.m. ET in Orlando, and the next one in Fort Pierce at 2:45 p.m. ET.

Obama In Wisconsin, Then Back To The Senate
Barack Obama has a campaign rally at 11 a.m. ET in La Crosse, Wisconsin, and is then heading back to Washington for a vote on the revised bailout package. Joe Biden does not have any public events, but is preparing for the debate and will also attend the Senate vote. Michelle Obama is holding two rallies today, one at 12 p.m. ET in Boulder, Colorado, and the other at 6:10 p.m. ET in Kansas City, Missouri.

McCain In Missouri And Then Washington, Palin In Debate Camp
John McCain is campaigning this morning in Independence, Missouri, and will then head back to Washington tonight's big Senate vote on the revised bailout. Sarah Palin is off the campaign trail, preparing for tomorrow's debate with Joe Biden.

McCain: I Take Strong Exception To Accusations That My Campaign Is Lying
John McCain met yesterday with the editorial board of the Des Moines Register, where he had a very tense exchange over whether his campaign has been honest in its personal attacks against Barack obama:

McCain was asked how he can inspire confidence with less than 100% absolute truth in his campaign. "Because I've always had 100% absolute truth, and that's been my life of putting my country first, and I'll match that record against anyone's, and I'm proud of it," McCain said. "And an assertion that I've ever done otherwise, I take strong exception to."


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Ooh, now we know how to get under his skin. New theme for the 527s: McCain lies, lies, lies. Keep poking him with that stick until he blows up.

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Not just Liar.

Pompous Liar!

Yeah, and he did that serpentile tongue rolling during these replies too. There was a post at 538 and a video of cuts from the debate. Liar, Liar!

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And the tongue in cheek. At a strategic point. Betrayed by his unconscious. Political suicide.

Yeah, I think the tongue-rolling is McShame's tell. As a poker player, Obama probably recognizes it, too.

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Not just a pompus liar, a liar who believes his own BS. He is even lying to himself.

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That's the pomposity. Right there!

He's like an internet troll: 100% committed to his own illogical bullshit, and when called on it, he starts bashing the crap out of the nearest strawman.

"It's time that normal Joe six-pack American is finally represented in the position of vice presidency," Palin said

Take that Cheney - you elitist wine swilling bastard! I don't want to hear your crap any more about Wyoming!

Actually, he's an elitist blood-swilling bastard, but that's just splitting hairs.

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...because the President representing Joe-Six Pack worked out so well.

It was barely concealed contempt. I don't want this man in the White House.

Well, remember, John McCain wasn't elected Miss Congeniality in the Senate. And think about it. Who could be more suited for the White House than a cranky old man who prattles on endlessly about the purity of his motives and actions while vilifying everyone else?

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He's hoping Palin will win over voters with her version of Miss Congeniality. It's all she has. A recent poll shows Palin to be more "likable" which will be all some voters care about.

Wow, at least a few of these need to be posts of their own. (1) Those are some pretty big leads for Obama in Penn., Ohio, and Florida. That's the election if those numbers hold. (2) Kudos to the Register for not sucking for a change. (3) Damn right I'm pissed about the prospect of an "normal Joe six-pack" as VP. That's effing ludicrous.

Like Jon Stewart said: "Not only do I want my president to be elite, I want someone who is embarrassingly superior to me."

What I don't want is somebody who can beat me in beer pong.

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McCain isn't responsible for all the lying done by his campaign. That lying is above his pay grade.

Remember campaigning is a tough business.

If he wants to know why he is losing, it is in large measure because his reputation as a truth teller is in shambles.

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Palin: Just think of me as Joe Sixpack.

Boy, they're aiming high, aren't they? Joe Sixpack goes to the G8? To the UN? State of the Union?
Spare us, Oh Lord!

McShame: Pompous Liar! Contemptuous, pathetic old man.

What a roll of the dice, risking the country and the world!

Reminds me of the series of Earnest Movies (Palin Goes to the UN).....

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Cereal Liar: Breakfast of Losers!

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Cereal Lies: Breakfast of Pompous Losers!

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Has anybody else noticed that Obama's poll numbers are all around 50-51% but McCain's are fluctuating between 41-46%?

The new Quinnipac numbers are breathtaking.

Well, fuck you, too, McCain.

Those Quinnipiac polls seem to be the last straw for RealClearPolitics. With no toss-up states they are giving FL, OH, NC and VA to Obama in a 348-190 landslide.

Holy shit. Boy do I wish the election had been held yesterday. But I'm glad the start of early voting in a number of states comes just as Obama is hitting his high-water mark.

(Of course, in a sane universe a ticket as appalling as McPain / Failin' would be headed for a 50-state wipeout.)

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GOOPers are already whining about "voter fraud" in Ohio because of a flier they found promising free drinks at a bar for newly registered voters. And the flier mentions Obama.

Fuck the Ohio GOP.

those crooks have been stealing elections for years.
The gig is up and now they're squealing like the pigs that they are.

She's a holy roller who probably frowns on alcohol use. She didn't come up with the Joe Sixpack bullshit herself; that ancient political cliche had to have been programmed into her by her handlers.

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So just as we want to hang "Joe Sixpack" around her neck - for the fundies.

So do we want to keep linking mcShame to Craps.

= Fundies with bundled undies!

Actually, she was involved in changing the laws so that the bars could be open until 5:00. I think that was just as Mayor of Wasilla, not as Gov. of Alaska.

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They had been open until 5:00a.m. for decades prior to the legislation that tried to civilize drunks. They had two hours to sleep it off as bars were permitted to re-open at 7:00a.m.

Because I've always had 100% absolute truth

Hee hee, why is each and every Repub candidate a God wannabe?

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mcShame Campaign:

Running on Contempt!

Trust our Pompous Lies.....

That's tellin' 'em, TheraP!

Why do interviewers always seem to back off when liars push back, as in "He DID, and I can provide documentation! It's on my website!" Obama didn't want to teach sex to kindergartners, I've read the legislation myself, so it can't be on McCain's website. Politifact.com dissects that whole ad and calls it a pants on fire lie, also explains the parts that pertain to younger kids.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2008/sep/11/kindergarten-sex-ed-hardly/

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Fear not. Other editors will come prepared...

This reminds me of Bush's "America does not torture!" and a lot of other boldly deceitful Bush-isms: they are not lies, why? Because the speaker (A) does want to say them and (B) doesn't want them to be called lies, irrespective of the details/truth. Therefore (C), they're not lies.

the members of the editorial board already know the facts. the purpose of their interview is to form the basis of which candidate they will be endorsing, no? they don't need to smack him down in real time during the interview. they will smack him down when they endorse obama.

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Thanks for posting the politifact link. I couldn't find material on the Obama "fight the smears" site.
And I hope it's true that other editors won't just roll up the tent when McCain says he's not gilding any lilies. The sex education for 5 year old's just galls me and it's so easily refuted.

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It drives me nuts that the people who get to interview him are unprepared when they confront him over his lies. Would it really be too tough to plan ahead and have the details printed out in front of you regarding each topic or claim that he's lied about? Would it really have been too hard to say, "All right, Senator, if the details are on your website let's get online and go through them together - and we'll also open someone like factcheck.org alongside it and see what they say."

It's pathetic - confront him with the specifics and don't be cowed by his arrogance or history.

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whoops - beckylee beat me to it.

Because I've always had 100% absolute truth

Well, that's kind of the thing with liars... they'll always say they're telling the truth.

Yes, it's called failing to hold yourself accountable. He wants to say that Barack Obama is a dirty black child molester, then he doesn't want anyone to attribute the falsehood to John I-approve-this-message McCain. He is the man of deep integrity who just wants to spread perverse known falsehoods against his competitor and be venerated for such dishonorable antics. And now that he's caught, he wants to continue the abuse but still be the man of such integrity.

Yes, and it's the one and only thing McShame has been consistent about. If you're going to lie, you're going to lie about your lying, and you're going to lie about everything.

And if you're a REALLY good liar, you're going to convince yourself you're telling the truth every time you lie.

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Ah, but you failed to note the apparently ever present POW reference which makes it all 'okay'…

"…but, it's not the facts that changes my positions and my honorable service to this country."

Facts 'that' changes? Huh? And just what is the 'it' he refers to which is modified by this awkwardly phrased claim? The interviewers opinion, as her termed it? Or, her assertion? Or, something else? The object modified is simply not clear.

He is starting to sound like his running mate…

Oh: have I pointed out that Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape—and earlier, VIetnam era equivalent training—actually teaches service personnel to lie under circumstances in which any information at all is disclosed to interrogators? They are, foremost, instructed to withhold information from their captors.

Hmm. Training for the Senator to run for the highest office in this land? I'm just sayin'…

Anybody else think the Quinnipiac polls may be just a too good to be true? a 15 point swing in Florida? 15 point lead in PA?

Statistically, that's always a possibility. Barring other factors such as selection bias, you always have a 5% chance of being wrong. So while good numbers are always encouraging I want to see more details plus other state polls as well.

That's my gut instinct. But I've also thought that most polls under-value the cell phone vote, so who knows.

It's the Biographical Big Lie!

Tell it, repeat it and repeat it and repeat it...

Seems to work...

I'm seeing a landslide coming, look out.

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Tsunami by sea. Landslide by land.

Someone should send flowers and chocolates to that brave reporter who kept pressing McCain on his lies even when he got mad.

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Likely an editor. Editors are brave!

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Read this from 538:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/tongue-jut.html

Then watch the McCain Iowa video again. Watch for the tongue!

Absolutely recommend that 538 article! It quotes an expert on poker tells, a former FBI interrogator:

Tongue-jutting behavior is a gesture used by people who think they have gotten away with something or are “caught” doing something....

This behavior has several meanings – depending on specific situations – but is usually associated with one of these: I got caught (taking candy from a drawer), gleeful excitement (look at what I just did, Mom), I got away with something (and I didn’t get caught), I did something foolish, or I am naughty.

Ooops, must have misplaced a tag there - that last paragraph is a continuation of the quote, not my own words.

The Q-pac polls are a SEISMIC SHIFT. Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio are among the oldest demographics in the nation. McCain had been doing very well among elderly voters, certainly until the debate. Obama, by being STRATEGICALLY smart, didn't rise to McCain's TACTICAL bait, and was thoughtful and respectful. Old folks like that.

Then on Monday, the old folks - like the rest of us - saw their retirement funds shrink. They've seen McCain running around like a chicken with his head cut off. They don't like that. They blame Bush and McCain for the mess. Not Obama.

The key question here is what will happen when some sort of package is passed and things get back to normal. How many of the old folks will drift back to McCain?

Obama should just keep reminding them that McCain wanted (wants?) to privatize social security.

Can you imagine the scale of the clusterfuck we'd be in right now if they had managed to push that through?

Ya know, I'm pretty sure they teach comprehensive Language Arts in kindergarten too and I don't think kindergartners should be reading grown-up books. Wait, what? Comprehensive and age-appropriate aren't mutually exclusive?

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kindergarteners reading grown up books....

Give me a break!

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Did you see McCain's response on "taxpayer funded health care" for his entire adult life? He was seething!

And his excuse? He's not an astronaut, but he understands things about space.

This guy is so close to blowing his top... just keep poking and poking. That famous temper will be displayed between now and the election.

PEACE

In which case I wish Obama the best of luck; as Pedro Martinez can attest, it is very difficult to grab a bowling ball by the ears.

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In every challenging interview he's trying to quietly disagree, a seething anger is just below the surface. He had an interview on NPR Morning Edition today and his tone of voice was the same as it was in the Iowa interview. "I dishagree with factcheck.org" about Obama's support of age appropriate sex education. Then he directs the interviewer to his website, which frees him from having to provide any more detail. Does anybody think he writes what's on his website? I doubt he even knows how to navigate to it. Old POW injuries, doncha know. He can't use his fingers.
He thinks being President is his "due". The questions from the press and a more than worthy opponent annoy him greatly.

watching the des moines register interview videos i have to wonder how many/few endorsements from respectable newspapers will mccain be able to get?

He lied to defend his lying behavior. Illuminating!

I really don't know how he is going to govern if he wins this election given the collapse of public trust in Washington. I also don't know what will be left of his political career if he loses this election.

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OMG! Quinnipiac forgot to pass their polls through the magic red-tint/shift filter. The corporate overlords are going to be pissed off beyond belief.

Anyone else notice how much McCain starts to blink when he ratchets up the bullsh*t? Look at the video again -when he says that the bill was to teach sex ed to children, he suddenly gets all blinky. He slows down again when he references his Vietnam service.

Someone get me to a poker table with this guy!

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He likes craps. He likes to roll the dice. No skills or strategy necessary. No "tells".
Obama, on the other hand is a poker player, and a good one, so say his colleagues on both sides of the aisles of the Illinois Senate

Given that pretty much everyone is calling Missouri safe for McCain, it is odd that both Michelle Obama and McCain are holding rallies there. Is it possible that the campaigns' respective polls are showing the State as in play?

It looks like the state is very much in play...

http://www.kansascity.com/772/story/821792.html

Missouri is, I think, the last state that rationally in Obama's reach. If he wins MO, it means he's probably already defended NH and PA and won IA, CO, VA, NV, FL, IN, and NC.

So, it's not really needed... but it sure wouldn't hurt.

Next on the list is Montana, but I think that's out of reach this year. Maybe in the 2012 re-election campaign. =D

If Palin did anything it is that she totally put Alaska and Montana in the bank for McCain. She put FL back in play though. MO is as much of a bellweather as you can get, it has only gotten the presidency wrong ONCE, and that was when they voted for Stevenson. They see the trend going for O and they want to join in. I would say IN is less likely to vote for O than MO is.

Do you know the margin by which Kerry lost Missouri to Bush? ~197 thousand votes.

Do you know how many new Missouri voters the Obama campaign and its affiliated support groups (like the Teamsters, the SEIU, etc) have registered? ~200 thousand.

When SurveyUSA shows that McCain has a 2 pt lead in likely Missouri voters and Research2000 shows McCain with a 1 pt lead in likely voters, remember that these "likely voter" screens actually filter out some of these newly registered voters. In other words, all of those maps which show Missouri "leaning" to McCain are premised on poll data which have skewed slightly in McCain's favor. I am cautiously optimistic that the Show-Me state will uphold its reputation as the most bell-weathery bell-weather in the nation by piling on to the Obama landslide on November 4.

Barack to McCain in the debate:

"Look me in the eye and say it to my face, John."

That should stir something up.

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I don't trust those Quinnipiac numbers at all for I do think those states are tight. However, it is good to see that at least Obama is competitive in Ohio during the time that early voting is happening.

These numbers are amazing. God I hope they hold, and that they are accurate.

I'm trying not to get too excited, but if I'm a McNoShame supporter, then I'm worried. We're in a good spot.

And, on a side note, as a beer drinker I am offended by Palin's remarks.

Should we take it that the Des Moines Register won't be endorsing McCain?
Heeheehee..........

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I don't think McCain comes off that badly on the "lying" clip. The interveiwers dropped the ball and should have pressed a lot harder. They should have had the facts on that childhood sex bill (it was about sexual predators, not teaching kids how to shag) and they should have hit him on his lying about Obama raising taxes. They let him off the hook and a lot of viewers will see McCain coming off as strong and assertive.

Someone downthread notes McCain's blinking behavior, too.

I can't recall if it is in Joe Navarro's book (which I should really re-read again) or not, but Annie Duke--who got Navarro into poker and whom Navarro got into reading FBI interrogation manuals--notes on one of her CD's that rapid eye blinking (relative to the subject's normal blink rate) is another tell that someone is lying.

A couple of McCain's comments to the Des Moines Register have me cringing.

First, as part of his reponse to the issue of Palin's level of experience and limited exposure to the media, McCain said: "some people that know that Franklin Delano Roosevelt didn't address the American poeple on television". Help me here please -- didn't FDR speak on the radio because few if any Americans had TVs back in 1944? Was TV even around then?

Second, when talking about the failure of the economic bill to pass the House, McCain said: "if I were dictator, which I always aspire to be...". WTF?

That's probably in reference to Biden's gaffe when he said that FDR went on TV in 1929 to calm America down, which some in the right wing are already using as proof that Biden's just as dumb as Palin.

If you give 100 interviews and speeches and have 5 gaffes, it's a little bit different from giving 5 interviews and having 5 gaffes.

A couple of McCain's comments to the Des Moines Register have me cringing.

First, as part of his response to the issue of Palin's level of experience and limited exposure to the media, McCain said: "some people that know that Franklin Delano Roosevelt didn't address the American poeple on television". Help me here please -- didn't FDR speak on the radio because few if any Americans had TVs back in 1944? Was TV even around then?

Second, when talking about the failure of the economic bill to pass the House, McCain said: "if I were dictator, which I always aspire to be...". WTF?

A couple of McCain's comments to the Des Moines Register have me cringing.

First, as part of his response to the issue of Palin's level of experience and limited exposure to the media, McCain said: "some people that know that Franklin Delano Roosevelt didn't address the American poeple on television". Help me here please -- didn't FDR speak on the radio because few if any Americans had TVs back in 1944? Was TV even around then?

Second, when talking about the failure of the economic bill to pass the House, McCain said: "if I were dictator, which I always aspire to be...". WTF?

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Did Palin know that about FDR and TV?
We've heard joking about bein' dictator before from King W.

"It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Someone call the punditocracy, and tell them Obama is closing the deal.

The CNN poll is out later today.

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... And an assertion that I've ever done otherwise, I take strong exception to. ...

Your objection is duly noted Senator Two-Face. ;-)

There's still a lot of campaign remaining, including more debates. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The campaign has to keep the pressure on and not let up. That said, it's better to see the trend of polls we've been seeing than the other way around.

Last week the RNC announced that it was spending 4 million on ads in Indiana.

It's time for McCain to start pulling back on states he can't win ..... and defending what he believes he can win. That should be coming soon, and it will be very interesting.

SENIORS! SENIORS! SENIORS SHIFTING TO OBAMA!!!
The Q-Pac polls from Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio measure three of the demographically oldest states in the union.

These are children of the Depression, and when they saw their retirement accounts shrink on Monday after reading about the biggest bank failure since the Depression, well.....

Certainly there is a possibility the Q-Pac poll may be an outlier...but there are three of them from three states. And if other polls taken soon back them up, then McCain and his people will be able to answer the old "boxers or briefs" question with the response, "Depends."

These number already have them soiling their pants.

The real question here is what happens when things quiet down and a bailout package is finally passed. How many of these 401-Konverts will go back to McCain?

McCain/Palin campaign's problem is that they are still preaching to their rightwing choir this late in the campaign rather than going for independents and moderates in the middle.

McCain shouldn't be running so hard to the right in October.

"Because I've always had 100% absolute truth"


If the Obama camp doesn't use that line and then systematically show all the news orgz that have called out McCain for his lying then someone needs to. It would make a great ad.

BRAND NEW CNN polls just out, Obama up in Florida,Minnesota,Missouri,Virginia, AND Nevada. Time to donate and get to work, this sort of motivation doesn't get any better. Let's turn that ENTIRE map blue.

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