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Is GOP Senator Gordon Smith Doomed? Early Voting Numbers Suggest It's Possible

The early vote, a key statistic that has been closely watched in the presidential race, appears to have already taken a toll on one Republican in particular: Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon, whose re-election campaign now appears to be in serious trouble.

Indeed, a victory now appears to be very difficult for him -- which would put Dems one step closer to the magic number of 60 in the Senate.

The pattern of the early voting in Oregon -- where all balloting is conducted by mail -- is clear from the opinion polls. A SurveyUSA poll from Monday had Smith's Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley up 51%-41% among the early voters, with an estimated half of the total likely votes already cast. A release this morning from Public Policy Polling (D) has Merkley up 59%-37% among early voters, with 59% of the total likely votes now cast.

If these numbers are accurate, then Smith would need to win the remaining likely voters by a two-to-one margin, just to scrape out a bare win. But right now, he's only ahead 51%-39% among this remaining group in the PPP numbers. And if the newer ballots don't immediately come in at that two-to-one-ratio for Smith, that means Smith's required margin of the remaining votes would keep going up.

Don Hamilton, communications director for the Oregon Secretary of State's office, confirmed to Election Central that over half of the total vote for 2008 has probably been sent in already, with the remaining votes making up a decent mix of registered Democrats and Republicans. A win is not impossible for Smith, but the math is very daunting.


30 Comments

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Is there such a thing as too much good news? Because I don't know if I can maintain this state of bliss without exploding into a billion tiny pieces.

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It's not good news but just signs of it. Four days more.

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Right. Just need to make it to Wednesday morning!

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IF you all can please donate to ALL Democratic candidates that you all can. I have donated to people I didn't even know existed in MN, TX, OR, NC, KY, OK, GA, etc.

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Coattails? This is a train and they're just jumping on.

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Glad I called all my family members in that great state and encouraged them to vote for Merkley. This really is an all-in struggle where no politics are local.

Smith was certainly no Senator Hatfield.

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THIS

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IS

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EXCELLENT

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NEWS

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NEWS

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FOR OREGON!

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aw, you totally ruined it. I was waiting for the "FOR" and then I was going to say "PUMPKINS"

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Well, Oregon State's colors are orange and black. So that's in the spirit. And the school's former athletic director was nicknamed "The Great Pumpkin". Does that count?

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yeah, it does. Cool.

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PUMPKINS!

Damn--you beat me to it!

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As an Oregonian, who knows both Smith and Merkley, I couldn't be happier. Smith is slick; he voted like a repug for the first five years of each term and then pretended to be "Mr. Moderate" each time election year rolled around. There is a fair amount of residual good will in this state towards Hatfield and other moderate Repubs even though the breed is nearly extinct.

Kudos to the DSCC. They pounded Smith relentlessly as GWB's best buddy. It wasn't pretty, but it was apparently effective.

Merkley isn't exciting, but he is a good policy guy, and he will generally be a good vote.

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God bless Tom McCall. All of my Democratic family members voted for him when he ran--for anything.

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Poor Gordon Smith...if only he'd been running in a pro-American state.

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If only he hadn't fertilized his crops with e-coli.

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Great news.

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This is a great way to end the week. I have been canvassing on weekends and delivering lawn signs for Merkley since early in the primary (and it was a tough primary, too). At times it seemed quixotic--daring to think we could pull down an incumbent Senator that was--to be frank--fairly well liked in the state.

But I bought into the idea that grassroots support and a feet-on-the-street organization could carry the day. I think it helped that Jeff endorsed Obama early in the primary--before it was a safe thing to do. It caused some friction, but after the primary the Merkley campaign in my neighborhood moved into an office with the Obama campaign.

Coordination of efforts leveraged the dozens (hundreds?) of volunteers that came streaming into the Obama/Merkley office. It is awe-inspiring to have been a small part of this effort. Before this campaign I have never done more than vote and send money. But I can tell you now that it is a great privilege to knock on doors and have a few minutes to chat about the election with my fellow citizens.

I will be out again this weekend, with an extra spring in my step. Not because I think Jeff will need the couple of extra votes that I may be able to sway, but because it will be (until next election) my last, best chance to engage in meaningful conversations about politics with complete strangers.

Reading the poll numbers in Eric's article brought a little mist to my eyes. And joy to my heart. Go Jeff! Go Barack! Go Us!

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What was your take on Steve Novick? What's he up to now?

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As an Oregonian, who knows both Smith and Merkley, I couldn't be happier. Smith is slick; he voted like a repug for the first five years of each term and then pretended to be "Mr. Moderate" each time election year rolled around. There is a fair amount of residual good will in this state towards Hatfield and other moderate Repubs even though the breed is nearly extinct.

Kudos to the DSCC. They pounded Smith relentlessly as GWB's best buddy. It wasn't pretty, but it was apparently effective.

Merkley isn't exciting, but he is a good policy guy, and he will generally be a good vote.

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Merkley has been polling well the second half of the month. Nate has him at an 84% win percentage this morning. This isn't one of the seats that's going to be a close call.

John

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That's going to be 8 new seats in the Senate: OR, NM, CO, AK, NH, NC, VA, and MN. Let's hope GA makes 9.

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Gordon Smith, you have been zapped by Karma. you ran a dirty race just like McCain, and you are both going to the scrapheap. Of course, you're both filthy rich, so I can't really get my full dose of schadenfreude.

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I hit the streets Thurs. night in Portland for
Obama and Merkley.

This is the first time, I have
ever went door to door for a candidate(s). Talk about a "RUSH". I was so pumped up, it was hard
to sleep!

The Obama ground game in Oregon Rocks. As we went
door to door. Some voters had not turned in their
ballots or even filled them out. One dude was hanging out listening to Soul music, while, his ballot just sitting on the coffee table. As soon we as we told him about Obama and Merkley he filled out his ballot right
then and there!

As we returned to the the Obama office some young
hippie type guys stopped us, and give us flowers.

What a great day it was.

Winning is the ONLY OPTION!

peace from Portland.

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According to todays news, only about 41-45% of registered voters had voted in Oregon--less than at this stage of the 04 election. Where does that number come from

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Too bad Ranger Gordon. You should have just set on the fence like always, but no, you have to use your questionable connections in DC, like Karl Rove, to use smear tactics. We're on to Bu$hco's tricky names like Healthy Forest's Initiative and more lately "Freedom's Watch" that pumped $ into your campaign.

So long Gordy. My advice to you is to change your ways, start canning organic food and join We The People in keeping LNG out of Oregon. The Indians
probably have a few things to say to you too...G:

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