Dems Gain Major Momentum In Battle For House
Here's yet more evidence that the Dems are poised for huge gains in Congress: The Cook Report has released a new set of updated rankings on 25 House races -- and all 25 are shifts in the Dems' direction.
Most of these show that a Dem incumbent who was leaning towards a win is now more likely to win, or that a Republican once thought solid or highly likely to win is now a weaker position, albeit still favored. But a few of these show serious changes in the expectations for the Dems to pick up seats.
For example, the open seat of moderate Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD), who lost his primary for re-election, is now a toss-up in a district that voted 62%-36% for President Bush in 2004 -- helped in no small part by the fact that Gilchrest has been campaigning for the Dem.
For what it's worth, only one Democratic seat has recently been shifted towards the GOP: The seat of scandal-ridden Florida Rep. Tim Mahoney.
Check out the full list of updates after the jump.
AZ-01 OPEN, Renzi (R) - Lean Democratic to Likely DemocraticAZ-05 Harry Mitchell (D) - Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords (D) - Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
CA-03 Dan Lungren (R) - Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-04 OPEN, Doolittle (R) - Likely Republican to Lean Republican
CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher (R) - Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-50 Brian Bilbray (R) - Solid Republican to Lean Republican
CT-05 Chris Murphy (D) - Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
GA-12 John Barrow (D) - Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
IL-08 Melissa Bean (D) - Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
IL-14 Bill Foster (D) - Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
IN-03 Mark Souder (R) - Likely Republican to Lean Republican
IN-09 Baron Hill (D) - Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
KS-02 Nancy Boyda (D) - Toss Up to Lean Democratic
MD-01 OPEN, Gilchrest (R) - Lean Republican to Toss Up
MS-01 Travis Childers (D) - Toss Up to Lean Democratic
MO-09 OPEN, Hulshof (R) - Lean Republican to Toss Up
NH-02 Paul Hodes (D) - Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
OH-02 Jean Schmidt (R) - Likely Republican to Lean Republican
OH-16 OPEN, Regula (R) - Toss Up to Lean Democratic
PA-04 Jason Altmire (D) - Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
PA-08 Patrick Murphy (D) - Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
SC-01 Henry Brown (R) - Solid Republican to Likely Republican
TN-04 Lincoln Davis (D) - Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
VA-11 OPEN, Davis (R) - Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
R.I.P. GOP
October 16, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well doesn't this belie your conclusion below that "the race may be tightening"?
October 16, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think so, HTX. The Cook Report report is likely based on some earlier polls, whereas the daily tracking polls - AND some recent state-by-state presidentials - have shown some signs of narrowing the last few days. (examples over at pollster.com)
October 16, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you believe every change in 24 hours means anything.
October 16, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
True, I would guess that the daily tracking polls make up most of the basis for Eric's statement. I barely follow the dailies anymore - I've been watching pollster.com's state-by-state charts.
There is definitely a lag effect in those polls, but pollster tries to objectively analyze each poll and smooth out a trend - they don't jump around as much based on a new outlier. The state-by-state trends were steadily rising for Sen. Obama until the last day or two, and their program pulled Ohio back into the "toss-up" category this a.m.
So, I hear you, Tena - and you were probably just trying to poke Eric a bit - but I don't think that Cook's report disproves Eric's tentative characterization.
October 16, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
If anything, the subject reminds us that Obama and friends are right when they say this is not the time to get cocky. You don't need to contribute a dime, you can make a few phone calls for them or visit a few neighbors. Or give them even five bucks if you can. Be part of history:
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/splashd1
October 17, 2008 3:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
The revolution will be televised.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 16, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish the election were next Tuesday. I really really do.
October 16, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
So do I. WI is Obama +17 at the moment.
October 16, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh to retire Mean Jean...
October 16, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
re: MD 01
The Democrat, Frank Kravotil, is also helped by the fact there are no other major contested elections in MD - and the Obama campaign has everyone EXTREMELY enthusiastic. but somehow, this has not (yet) resulted in much press coverage. You would think that the only contested Congressional race in the state, one that covers a district which includes part of Baltimore County, would get pretty regular coverage in the Baltimore Sun, but they haven't had a story in 3 weeks.
October 16, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, the Sun has decided to become a New York Post wanna-be, so they don't do actual news anymore. Though you can find out anything you want about Michael Phelps...
I hope Kratovil can pull it off. One thing that he may have going for him over past Democratic candidates is that Gilcrest is a pretty decent guy and a lot of Dems were willing to vote for him. Harris hails from the Looney Toons wing of the Republican party and isn't likely to pick up much Democratic support, if any.
October 16, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
MD-6 might not be a lock for Republican incumbent Roscoe Bartlett.
Challenger Jennifer Dougherty faces a tough contest, but there are many newly registered Democrats in the district, and Bartlett is under 50% in polls.
If Dougherty got some last-minute cash, Maryland's Congressional delegation could be 8 out of 8:
http://jenniferdougherty.com/
October 17, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink