Careful now Greg lest you be accused of "measuring the drapes".

This is an excellent point. While I think Obama did great tonight, I felt worried throughout the debate that Mccains comments might resonate with voters. Perhaps it was me being overly anxious but I agreed with some of the pundits that this was mccains best debate and wondered if that would be reflected in the "Snap-polls" afterwards. As you mentioned above, the narrative of the race was fixed over the past couple of weeks. Ordinarily, mccains tactic of questioning Obama's character would have gained at least some traction (I'm sorry to say), but with the financial crisis, people are looking for answers not gossip.

It's not longer a matter of if it's over (FUCK YEAH!), but of how much the margin of the victory will be...

I know what kind of victory I want: LANDSLIDE!

19 days to get it done!

Yay! Hopefully when he wins I'll see him in Millenium Park here in Chicago!

Anyone else hear of that rumor that he's going to give his acceptance speech here in Chicago?

And in case no one noticed..........

Markets in ASIA are crashing as we speak.

Well said, Greg.

Greg nailed it.

In this environment, McCain's Ayers strategy is really almost worse than no strategy at all.

But I wonder if the real agenda is to help the GOP in close Senate races. The Ayers crap may drive away independents, but it could help bring out the base. And the contested Senate races right now are in places (NC, KY, GA) where the GOP could win with a base-turnout strategy.

McCain-Palin: all aboard the Fail Train.

http://pufferfish.typepad.com/

Oh please.

This narrative was set about two years ago. Obama made all this happen with a brilliant strategy. Obama takes down the DLC/House of Clinton, rather quickly I might add, and then parries to tackle the Repub Party and Big Media, with their 24/7 Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers while ignoring all McCain scandals, on his way to a potential landslide win. All this with a name like Barack Hussein Obama and darker skin than any American Prez has ever had.

There was a little blip where the Repubs, helped by their ad agency the MSM, got a bump out of their convention and Obama figuring out how to handle Hotlips Paylin, but otherwise Obama has been dominant ever since Iowa. These incredible feats are not by accident. This is not happening because of the financial meltdown (which has been happening for months/years and they decided to do something about it all of a sudden for the elections). Obama very consciously set the stage for most of what's happening right now in terms of his puling away.

Truly a story of brilliance for the ages.

Sorry, I'm obsessed... but I feel used because it turns out Joe may not even be a registered voter.

Definitely on the mark. My same thoughts about pulling out "Obama's" negative campaigning. Serious, John, I think you've made a mistake that was your negative campaigning and Obama able to get back on the issues. Obviously something jumping Jack no-flash has no clue about.

I was a little worried that the press would pick up on Obama's "I don't want to pay taxes" out of context (what? they'd never do that!), but hopefully they won't. McSpud was flailing by bringing up Ayers. It's been debunked and it's too late. That's last week or the week before's news.

Unfortunately for McSpud, the market didn't go up today so no use breaking out the good china. When you have states like CO, OH and even Fl shaded light blue something's bad in the kitchen and it ain't the eggs.

No one doubts that McCain is his own person, with his own story. -- Greg Sargent.

I do.

Which campaign have you been covering?

One comment that needs to be made about this video in their (correct) rush you point out McCain's "Health" comments:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFmxm_jjgSs

Watch is close, and pay attention to Voter Tracking. *Don't* look for McCain's comments at the end. Pay attention right before that.

The Women and Men's votes are often quite divergent. A key point to watch is where the Men and Women *combined* jump through the roof in agreement.

2:49 in when Obama starts talking about Common Ground. Specifically to reduce the number of abortions through Education. By 3:10 when his message is becoming clearer to the people being polled, they are the highest through the whole segment. They are a combined higher than where McCain would go in the opposite direction with his "Health" comment.

The "Health" comment is the one that will get run into the ground, as it should.

But I think the point here that Dems need to take home is that these were OH indys plugged to the machines. Decided Repubs are, as a group, not super favorable to Sex Education / Pregnancy Prevention as a way to cut abortions. Decided Dems are on the other side, obviously. Indys are where we find why "most Americans favor strong sex education and contraception education".

The Dems really need to forcefully take Ownership of that issue. Sure, they lose the Base and the Fundies. But these OH indies, which are replicated all across the country, are strongly in support of this issue.

It simply needs someone like Obama to (as McCain belittles) make the eloquent Narrative of why this is an area we can find some common ground to move forward in a positive way.

I'm pro-choice. The anti-abortion folks have pissed me off all the way back to my early young teen understanding of the abortion issues in the late 70s. But as much as the abortion debate frustrates me, the fact that the Sex Education / Contraception Education issue has gotten eaten up by the Base/Fundies into an element of the abortion debate pisses me off just as much.

We have got to understand that the Majority of the Country is with us on Education, but the Narrative and Talking Points are getting driven by the Base & Fundies. We can actually take over this issue if we stop being scared of them and nail *our* Narrative well.

We all hate what Ab-Only a/k/a Just Say No To Fucking has done to our country. Too many rates are up under the Bush Admin - teen pregnancy, SDT's, abortions. It's just horrid policy.

So we need to use those horrid number to our benefit as teeth to making the argument.

What we need to see in that clip is that main stream, undecided America is rather strongly Pro Eductation to reduce what they see as problems - pregnecies, abortions, SDTs.

I can only hope that we do seize the issue in the next 4-8 years. Kids aren't going to stop fucking. And the sad fact is the it's the Kids Who Fuck Stupid who end up pregnent or getting SDTs. We need to smarten them up. :/

John

Might I suggest a new theme song for McCain?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0bqAp2MA9M

Greg, that's some great analysis of the state of the race right now. There's just one thing on which I can't agree with you, and that's the trivializing of the debate of the virtues of the Enterprise captains. Obviously Picard was better in almost every way. He just needed to loosen up with the ladies some and he would've been perfect.

When you appear "erratic" in your behavior at a time when the nation is facing the biggest crisis of the century, and Americans reach to a consensus that he's hot headed, he lost the election. At a troubled and shaky time, people look for somebody they could rely on and somebody who is steady. If you ask me, it is that "maverick" brand that cost him the election. That is how the history will be written. He has been trying to play the "Obama-is-risky" card and that is not working precisely because a risky maverick is saying it. At other times, it might have worked. American people, more than half at least, are too smart to fall for that.

The election was over the day McLame decided to suspend his campaign for the 2nd time. Until then, I thought he'd compete hard and keep it close, though I was sure he was going to lose.

Is it me or does it look like McCain is completely uncomfortable promoting sleazy attacks on Obama? I don't think this is a matter of honor - whatever his campaign does is his responsibility and they have been ugly. But he's really bad at it. Palin is great at it because she has a dark, empty soul. I don't think McCain is a saint but he's just not up for the task. Perhaps it's a result of a) what Bush did to him in 2000 and b) the Keating 5 experience. I don't know. But while I thought he looked nervous and shifty throughout his appearance tonight, he looked especially uncomfortable raising Ayers and abortion. And in response, Obama looked and sounded, as usual, cool and collected.

Or is this just a matter of McCain having no balls? Easy to be a dick with a collection of fly boys to back you up at the officers club. Not so easy on a stage. one-on-one, with an opponent whose ass you can't threaten to kick. In other words, is he just your typical bully?

Hey, does anyone else think Schiffer did a good job tonight? I was actually rather impressed myself.

The anger of McCain is evident if you watch his interaction with his wife when they are together in public. Cindy stands near John, though slightly behind him, in an obedient manner.

Barack and his wife are always next to each other, holding hands or arms intertwined. When they leave the stage together, one has their hand on the other's back.

Tonight, McCain walked off the stage to work the crowd and left his wife, likely wearing heels, to fend for herself coming off the stage with no handrail. Real class act.

It is no wonder he made the snide comment he did about the health of the mother (in regards to abortion) being used by liberals to mean almost anything.

Tonight on stage Cindy looked like she knew she was going to get a beatin'. I hope she files for divorce as soon as McCain loses the election.

Joe the Plumber was/is a Republican. He does not say it, but every bit of what he says about Obama/McCain clearly reveals it.
Check out his interview at CBS:
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/10/16/politics/horserace/entry4525242.shtml

Don't be silly. Everyone knows that Captain Picard is far superior to Captain Kirk.

I do contend that Barack is excellent, possibly the best in two & a half centuries; however, I am a malcontent, so, I do have complaints. Two complaints are how would we "...enforce unfair trade agreement,...", "stand-up to other countries,...", & I do need to learn much more about Joseph Wurzelbacher. There are others, most of which I am holding back until late on the fourth. I do figure that until then, our most scathing criticism should be aimed @ John; however, John seems pleased to anger virtually everyone. Does he perceive his campaign as an airplane? He seems to enjoy landing airplanes as a flaming lateral. John keeps saying "I've got the scars to prove it." One of the reasons that I want Barack to win is to not have to hear "my friend". The "cone of silence" did not work f/ Max Smart, it did not work f/ John McCain, & John McCain says that he honors John Lewis, but, he keeps trying to put the cone on John Lewis' head.

The beartrap is exactly what happened. The McCain campaign probably had the whole Ayers/ACORN strategy laid out since the summer, hence the "community organizer" stunt at the convention. What they didn't foresee was the financial collapse which finally focused voters off the stupid tangential stuff of the last two cycles and squarely onto the issues. McCain never recovered and, instead, has been careening from one policy proposal and one smear to another. McCain, the (start air quotes) health (end air quotes) of your campaign is at critical.

Just saw it, because I was out this evening.

I was daring to hope Obama will win before this. Now I know he's going to win.

As is my custom, I analyzed and compared the separate parts of the participants to this debate: bubble graphs of no. and length of words and sentences, word clouds. I added a study of the number of speaking turns of each candidate too. You can find this and more at my Word Face-Off blog. Similar analyses of the previous debates are hyperlinked from there.

I think perhaps there's a larger dynamic at play that has caused Obama's apparent win. And it's not in the details. Not in the winces and anger on the part of McCain. Not even in Obama's well thought out policy arguments or his quick parrying of the smears thrown at him.

I think the "aura" that Obama projects trumps it all. Why? Americans are truly frightened about the economic plight facing us. We are now living in a reality of uncertainty (even if the reality of hard times hasn't hit home for everyone yet). And in this regard, Obama's whole demeanor projects calmness, rock solid steadyness, and a life raft in tumultuous seas.

The fidgeting, angry, incoherent at times image projected by McCain is just what Americans are trying to escape. It's as simple as that, I feel.

I think what we have to remember, more than anything else, that every mistake McCain made is this debate was 100% avoidable, had he run a different campaign. If the line, "George Bush is not running for President" had come in the first debate, and had been hammered home from the McCain camp. for months... I think things might have gone very differently.

I have been saying (though not here on TPM) for months now that the "McCain is 3rd term Bush" line was just bad, faulty, and easily countered. McCain never directly countered it until tonight. If McCain had clearly said from day one, "I am not George Bush. Senator Obama is not running against George Bush. I will not continue George Bush's policies," Obama would have had a much harder battle. McCain has not, and continues to fail at, defining himself outside of George Bush and the past eight years. So sad that such a flimsy and simple attack from Obama went unchallenged for so long. I guess, if anything, it shows how badly run McCain's campaign has been.

Whoo boy, is the Mav going to be mad tomorrow morning.

McCain is going to kick Tucker Bounds' "You know what"!

http://thetruthburns.wordpress.com/2008/10/11/we%e2%80%99ve-gone-from-silly-season-to-hate-week-what%e2%80%99s-next-kristallnacht/

I've seen only Barack's 2004 speech, a few sound bites, and tonight's debate. j(I of course watch plenty of clips on the web.)

How anyone can support McCain after his Evil Munchkin floor show amazes me. Thank God my good Republican upbringing didn't take. I'd have to be apologizing for this doofus.

Anyway, I think I put my finger on Obama's slowly rising numbers among older white voters--and not so old white voters like me.

Obama looks like one of those nice young black statesmen we remember from the glory days of the new-minted United Nations.

He looks like the startlingly polished and attentive young black doctor that treated some elderly white voter's family so well that time one of them was sick--and he was even American!

Obama is tall, slender, dark-eyed, trim, contained in his movements, and his voice is pitched in the same range as Mr. Spock. His ears are even whimsical. McCain comes across as Shatner in his girdle years.

Obama also has an gentle persistent earnestness that reminds me of another Star Trek creation: Data.

I think the earnestness, the gentleness, the calm plays very well with senior white voters. Obama reminds them of a time when they weren't afraid.

I watched the debate on CNN so that I could follow the graph of how viewers were responding to the debate. Each time that McCain brought up Joe the Plumber, the graph dipped dramatically.

I think that has been one of McCain's problems throughout the debates. It's as if he prepares 30 minutes of material for a 90 minute debate. Thus, he continually repeats himself to the point that it turns people off. Perhaps in most debates it would be enough to get off the clever one liner or the snappy zinger. However, it comes off as insincere and lacking depth and seriousness, particularly when your opponent thinks in thoughtful paragraphs.

Last night Joe, our stealth McCain supporter, was interviewed by Katie Couric. He said "you might not like McCain but you know where he stands". That is a direct quote from the Bush 2004 campaign.

Joe needs to be defined for what he is; a partisan who will be touted by the McCain campaign as some sort of poster child for mainstream America. Don't let this guy become what McCain wants him to be.

Joe is actually both right, and wrong. Yes, McCain is not liked (even by his own party), and no his positions shift conveniently as the political environment does the same.

Flush this guy fast...

I just like to add to the Joe the plumber debate. I'm happy for him, but FOR A SERVICE MEMBER WHO PUTS THEIR LIFE ON THE LINE EVERDAY, I DON'T MAKE CLOSE TO TO WHAT HE MAKES...And that says to me and should say to the country something is truely wrong with the tax code.

Obama -- McCain
Presidential -- head about to explode
Focused on the economy -- obsessed with the petty (earmarks, Ayers, partial-birth abortion)
Sticks to the issues -- diverts to the trivial
Positive -- negative
Reassuring -- unhinged
Strategic -- tactical
Consistent -- erratic
Ready to govern -- desperate to win
44th president of the United States -- returns to Senate in dishonor and disgrace

here is the link, Joe the plumber who is obviously republican isn't even registered to vote:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/The_Joe_file.html#comments

McCain's mission in last night's debate was to prove to the right-wing extremist dittohead base that he is every bit as much a vicious lying thug as Sarah Palin.

And in this, he succeeded.

All I know is that Joe the Plumber was given like 8 mins on MSNBC this morning and he was all about he's glad that we took the fight to them in Iraq and social security is bad, etc. He's a confused fringe Republican, of course he likes McCain. It's such a sham.

No. It is not over. Nothing to do with measuring drapes, either.

We know McCain will continue to run 100% negative ads for the duration. Just because his attacks backfired in debates doesn't mean they will backfire as TV ads. At this point probably too much importance is being attached to last night's debate, given no gaffes by Obama (for me it's getting harder and harder even to imagine him making a major gaffe). It's possible that Obama's position in the polls will go up a bit as a result (assuming the snap polls are accurate and that, among independents watching, Obama won hands down.) And I see that InTrade has Obama up, last time I checked this AM, another 3 or 4 points. All very good signs. We should feel optimistic.

But there are many, many people who will vote or might vote who did not watch the debate. If McCain can get enough of them to pull within 2 or 3 points by Election Eve, does anyone here really want to take it for granted that another Republican effort to steal an election will surely fail? Based on what I've read, I can't.
(Mark Crispin Miller's edited 2008 volume, Loser Take All: Election Fraud and the Subversion of Democracy 2000-2008; and Steve Freeman and Joel Bleifuss' Was the 2004 Presidential Election Stolen?)

If Obama/Biden are up by their current margin as of Election Eve, it will be far harder for the Republicans to succeed if they do try to steal it. There will be widespread outrage and much greater demand for, and indeed insistence, on the MSM being aggressive in getting to the bottom of what happened.

Yes, things are looking good right now. But: Chickens. Not. Hatched. And the better Obama does the more likely we'll get working progressive majorities in both the House and Senate. Can you envision an embarrassed, uber-angry (is angrier possible?), humiliated, and beyond-reach McCain filibustering needed legislation next spring? I can, all too readily. Getting to a working 60 Senate votes could matter a whole lot. A lot of Congressional, state and local races also hang in the balance.

So I really hope our side will resist the temptations to give thought to when it is "over" until the defeated candidates have made their concession calls.

Carter won rather convincingly and I imagine Obama will too, but as Joe the Plumber has shown us, the average American will demand real change in 2012.

Look for a Friday drive time announcement that Palin has decided to step down from the VP slot in order to take care of her children and her beloved state of Alaska, and for Joe the Plumber to be the new VP candidate.