CNN Poll: Obama Leading By Five Points; Race May Be Tightening
A new national poll from CNN suggests that the race may be tightening, with Obama holding a five point lead among likely voters over McCain, 51%-46%, which is down from an eight-point lead in early October.
One interesting tidbit: There's been a drop in the number who think McCain would most likely represent a continuation of Bush's policies, which suggests the possibility that McCain did manage to have a bit of success at the last debate, when he made a great show of claiming that he isn't Bush.
Nonetheless, Obama's advantage on the economy -- one of the primary places that Dems are arguing that McCain would continue Bush's policies -- remains enormous. A full majority of 53% say Obama would better handle the current crisis, versus only 38% who say that about McCain, and Obama's number is nearly double that of McCain's on the question of who would better help the middle class.
So Obama is still far and away the preferred choice on the most important issue for voters, whether or not they think McCain is the McSame as Bush. More when the internals are available.
Rasmussen Virginia Poll: Obama 54 McCain 44
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election
October 20, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sweet, that is a more important number than the national spread, which is actually good, since it has Obama over 50%
October 20, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you.
October 20, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love living in Communist Country!!! We're going to change this election and change this world!!!
October 20, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
OH! You're from that Arlington!
October 20, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too! I love commie livin'!!!!
October 20, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's too bad for McCain that we don't allocate our 13 electoral votes according to Fake-Virginia vs. Real-Virginia preferences -- I for one am glad that my Socialist, liberal, elite, education-valuing vote will nullify Nancy Pfotenpooter's vote here in Commie Country.
October 20, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just remember, it's the state results that give us EV's. Keep working hard!
October 20, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain isn't Reagan either. I don't think that McCain's going to be able to overcome the odds this late in the game. (I guess anything's possible though)
October 20, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only for vanishingly small values of possible.
October 20, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe on fivethirtyeight that value equals 6.9%
October 20, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh. A few days ago it was under 5%.
Note that almost all polls' MoEs are based on a confidence level of 95%. (It's in the fine print.) I.e., there's a 5% chance that the real value is outside the MoE.
That kinda means 5% is functionally equivalent to none.
Alternatively put, McSame is toast.
October 20, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
51%! 'Nuff said!
October 20, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right! The key number is Obama's. He stays at or above 50 percent and we're good.
October 20, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yo CNN:
Tighten this!
October 20, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, duh. Races typically tighten at the end. This is why Obama warns against any complacency.
October 20, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
More when the internals are available.
Thassokay . . .
October 20, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Film at 11?
October 20, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This was to be expected, and should cause no panic at the disco.
All Kerry states, plus New Hampshire, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado (all of which Obama leads in by significant margins). That equals victory. Think of that when you start getting anxious.
October 20, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
ABC has a poll teaser out that says there's trouble for McCain ("voters sour on Ayers attack").
If memory serves, this introduction is typically part of a larger poll. And, guessing from the tidbits, I'd bet the poll will give Obama a strong lead.
We'll see later this afternoon.
October 20, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
There was already a Washington Post poll out suggesting people don't think Ayers is relevant. ABC and WaPo often joint poll--could ABC be flacking its already released poll numbers?
October 20, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
From ABCNews:
October 20, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
The headlines seem to overhype (hypittyhype?) the Ayers backlash.
The Half-Baked Alaska backlash is much stronger and, IMO, much more important.
October 20, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
apparently Suffolk came out with the following:
Missouri: McCain by 1% point
Ohio: Obama by 8% points
October 20, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
here it is:
http://www.suffolk.edu/31491.html
October 20, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa! You guys see the Suffolk Ohio poll? Obama 51 - McCain 42!
October 20, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I thought the only Ohio polls that counted were ones that showed Grampy McSame ahead.
Ohio will make us proud on November 4th!
October 20, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
When the polls shrink to 1 or 2% difference before the election maybe Obama will question if he should have been more aggressive in attacking McCain.
If this is not a resounding landslide win for Obama (8-10+ points) we will not know who is President for many weeks (months) after Nov. 8. The Republicans will be insisting EVERY vote be recounted.
October 20, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Being a Democrat, I understand this sort of view, but I don't think there's any hard evidence that this race is trending back to McCain in any significant way.
Forget national daily trackers at this point in time. Look to state polling.
October 20, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
And when they don't shrink, what will your criticism be?
Here's the thing about not attacking McCain aggressively enough: he is doing just that. There are ads playing on The WEather Channel, for crying out loud, in which McCain says proudly "I voted with Bush more than 90% of the time..." Ads such as these are probably playing in battleground states, particular sections of battleground states, and all completely under the radar of the national media.
You know more about McCain's attacks because of that campaign is trying to run a national ad campaign via the media. Meanwhile, individual voters are getting bombarded with attack ads on McCain, but those don't get discussed.
October 20, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Practically the only ads running here in New Mexico now are Obama ads.
There is the one you mentioned and the education ad, and the I'm concerned not for lobbyists but for you ad which is also a good ad -
There's not much McCain profile left on the air here now.
October 20, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's because McIIIrd has only $50M left in the kitty. And, the RNC (religious nut cases?!?!)has stopped spend its $$$ on McIIIrd, preferring to spend what's left on preventing a Democratic super majority in the Senate.
Barak has more than $500M left to spend! According to reports I've read, the Obama campaign has bought up all the remaining available advertisement slots in the battleground states.
Let's not get complacent folks. Volunteer your time, toil and sweat to ensure a victory on November 4th.
"Never, never give up" - Winston Churchill
October 20, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wooooow. You can foresee the future? And with absolute clarity, too apparently. That's amazing. Where have you been all this time? Surely, you have unlimited leisure time to post because with that incredible precognotive ability, you must be enormously wealthy.
October 20, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
AHH!!!! I need a bridge to jump off of!
October 20, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't jump until you've voted for Barack!
October 20, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a great final-weeks mantra.
There's going to be a lot of emotional roller coastering between now and election day. Panic, sadness, unbridled joy, hope, despair, thrill, amazement, bliss...
It will pretty much be like watching any Redskins game.
October 20, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, bvd, thank YOU, for the laugh!
October 20, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everyone expected the national polls to tighten as we came down the final stretch. Not a big deal. Obama is still well ahead in the electoral map.
If McCain gains a point or two in the popular vote by way of Utah going for him by 35% instead of 33%, so what?
October 20, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or if the South rises in polling, who cares? hyperRevue is right.
October 20, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some tightening in the national polls was expected. But as others have pointed out already, its the state polls that tell the real story. CO, VA, IA, MO, NC, FL, NV and NM all show Obama leads. Further, GA, ND, and MT are definitely in play.
There is no need to panic...just stay focused and help the Obama campaign however you can.
October 20, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen, bro!
October 20, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
When does the ABC come out? What is with this teasing they hve been doing for 2 days. Post the results and be done wth it.
October 20, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, absolutely. No doubt about it. The race very clearly MAY be tightening.
Or not.
October 20, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
WHY DO YOU HAVE TO MAKE THIS ABOUT RACE?????? I BET YOU LIVE IN UNREAL AMERICA!!!
October 20, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. SF is about as unreal as America gets.
October 20, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was working over the weekend and much of the time had CNN or MSNBC even a little Fox on the TV too. I was unpleasantly surprised at the through the looking glass nature of the McCain Palin speeches. Really a pack of lies and mostly unchallenged by the media. I'm sure there are people out there who will hear this bogus crap and respond for McCain, the socialist stuff scared me, and I started to wonder how long before we see a serious act of violence. I can see red meat airheads actually being motivated to vote against a Muslim Socialist anti American who's too eloquent (that's bad), hangs around with terrorists and wants to give away your hard earned tax dollars in the form of welfare checks to black people who don't pay taxes. That's pretty much the essence of the McCain campaign now.
October 20, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't mention he's black. Did anybody see the Fox News Sunday interview with McCain? I thought they were going to cue twilight zone music. He was a hair away from talking about black helicopters at his daughters wedding. A real freak show.
October 20, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK. I'm going to take deep breaths.
It's just very hard for me to imagine, after these last 8 years, why *anyone* would vote Republican, let alone almost 50% of the registered voters. It's mindboggling.
October 20, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mindboggling, definitely.
Or like "turn your hair almost completely gray" kind of scary.
Or "rip your hair out entirely because of frustration with the voting public" kind of insanity.
October 20, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's wait until the 5th to start cutting our wrists over how nuts American voters are.
Ok? I mean, if the worst happens, I'm right there with you. I'll hold hands with anyone else who wants to jump in the Rio Grande Gorge with me.
October 20, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, Tena, Northern New Mexico needs you!
There's work to be done after the election, no matter what happens.
OT: That Rio Grande Gorge bridge scares me. When a car goes by the whole thing shakes--I guess I'm definitely NOT ready to jump with you!
October 20, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excuse me?
October 20, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Near Taos is a bridge across the Rio Grande Gorge that you can walk across to get an awesome view. If you are afraid of heights, it's kind of a nightmare. Or if you aren't and a tractor trailor goes by, it's also a nightmare (see above).
October 20, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been surprised this past summer that we actually had very few jumpers.
Last year we had 4 who jumped. That gorge is a big invitation to people who are in despair.
October 20, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was in response to the lecture I was getting, not to where the bridge is.
October 20, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
NOW you tell me . . .
October 20, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pubbies saw Mac slam Bam to the ropes - one time - and all went, "hell yeah!" Bam's numbers aren't dropping, but Mac's numbers are rising a bit. That is all. Tracking polls are already saying this is starting to diminish because of the ADD nature of Mac's base.
October 20, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain seems to have decided on a narrative for the last few weeks - Obama is a dangerous, unknown, socialist. He's beating that drum every where he goes and everywhere he's running ads.
All that matters now is swing state numbers. Obama seems to be playing for a landslide, whereas McCain is playing for a close win. I'd like to see Obama shore up a win before playing for the big win - this means heading back to Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, and even stopping in Wisconsin and Minnesota and then camping out in Pennsylvania for the next two weeks (having a constant presence there be it Obama, Biden, Michelle, Jill or Bill/Hillary). Florida, Virginia, NC, Ohio should be seen as gravy.
October 20, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Republicans' ACORN-fest last weekend, aided and abetted by CNN and Fox, has significantly changed the balance of the race. It got Republican voters motivated again, and it bled a few independents from Obama back into the undecided column.
The Dems need to highlight Republican vote fraud and irregularities. It's the Republicans, not ACORN, not the Dems, who are once again trying to steal an election by either preventing people from voting altogether or programming voting machines to flip votes from D to R.
October 20, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you post to polling evidence that supports this, or is this just speculation on your part?
October 20, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go and check the internals from Daily Kos's Research 2000 tracker. Check in particular the shifts among Democratic, Republican and Independent voters, and check the days on which they occurred. It is exactly in line with ACORN fest. As soon as the bloviators moved on to other stuff late last week, the shift stopped.
October 20, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
One more thing. Go and check the same on Rasmussen and Gallup. It's virtually the same pattern, same timing.
October 20, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOVE that Rasmussen Virginia poll. If Obama wins Virginia he will win!!!
October 20, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's what's kind of great about the 4th. Polls in Virginia and Florida will be the first to close. If he takes either of those states, it'll be over.
October 20, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I started to wonder how long before we see a serious act of violence.
Imagine how some of these people will react if Obama wins! They'll become unhinged. They were already crazy to begin with and then whipped into a frenzy by McCain and Palin.
October 20, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, all 67 or so of them.
I'm really scared.
Dude, we've predicted this reaction for close to 6 years. It's not like it's any surprise.
October 20, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't say I was surprised.
October 20, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, then you shouldn't be nervous about them, then.
That's what I meant - I always knew this would happen I just didn't know the candidate was going to encourage it. But there aren't that many of them and I hope they do flip out on the 5th - that will be the final end game of the entire goddamn movement.
October 20, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Early voting started today in Florida. Lines were long in at least the two polling places I visited. I am stationed here and this is a extremely repug area. Both early voting sites had a mostly African Americans voting. I spoke to quite a few persons and several told me they are afraid of what ocured in 1984 when 25,000 votes mostly from heavy AA precints where declared not valid due to caging. The supervisor of elections did a verification mailing about a month ago.
October 20, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry I meant to say 2004
October 20, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain seems to have decided on a narrative for the last few weeks - Obama is a dangerous, unknown, socialist.
Actually, it's more like "Obama's a dangerous black muslim inexperienced socialist terrorist who kills babies and will steal the election."
Inotherwords, it's teh FEAR, stupid. And fear can be a powerful motivator.
October 20, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once again, Obama let McCain off the hook. While Biden hit McCain hard in his debate of saying McCain has the same old policies as Bush, Obama did NOT hit McCain at ALL in the last 2 debates.
Obama let McCain's canned line about not being Bush just sit there without saying, "you voted with Bush 90% of the time." Even higher this past year. And you went on O'Reilly bragging about working to get Bush re-elected.
Instead, Obama is just trying to run out the clock and may be blow this thing that we have all worked so hard for.
October 20, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
"So the fact of the matter is that if I occasionally have mistaken your policies for George Bush's policies, it's because on the core economic issues that matter to the American people, on tax policy, on energy policy, on spending priorities, you have been a vigorous supporter of President Bush. "
October 20, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not good enough. It did not work. The CNN numbers show that less 50% of the survey now believe that McCain will continue Bush's policies. This shows that McCain has succeeded in convincing people that he is not like Bush.
October 20, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
See what the numbers look like after Obama spends $150 million proving that McLame is indeed the same as Bush.
Geez, you are quite the chicken little. This race is all but over, the final spread is all that's left to decide.
October 20, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm no it hasn't. It showed a majority of people IN THIS POLL believe so. That can be changed with ease, especially with ads using McCains own words to say "I voted with bBush 90% of the time"
October 20, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This makes no sense - Obama, by all measures, won all 3 debates by wide margins. Among the main reasons are that he didn't alienate people by attacking McCain, and he stayed calm and reasonable. People's respect for him grew.
Let go of the media-hyped boxing match mentality. People want reassurance and stability, not blood-sports.
October 20, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember -- money matters. And Obama has LOTS more than McCain in this home stretch.
October 20, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama is only up by 2% in the national polls going into election day but is up by 3-5pts or more in the polls in OH, VA, FL, CO, NV, and MO, then I could give a flying you-know-what about the national polls.
Ohio is consistently polling at or above 50% in most of the national polls and in almost all of the swing states. While McCain is picking up support, Obama isn't dropping below 50%. That is the most significant metric out there. If you're for Obama (or McCain) by this point and willing to tell a pollster you are, you almost certainly aren't going to change your mind over the next 2 weeks. If these numbers stick and Obama just splits undecideds with McCain by a 4-to-1 margin (with the 4 going to McCain), he's golden.
10pts in VA. In Rasmussen. Wow...
October 20, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
First sentence, second paragraph, should have read, "Obama is consistently polling..."
October 20, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm Obama is at 51 percent, that is a win. Add 2 percentage points to that and it's a blowout. Better not worry folks, just work harder.
October 20, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama just widened his lead in all three daily Gallup tracking polls. Yes, I understand that the race is won state by state - electoral college vote by electoral college vote - but I do think these daily national tracking polls give a decent sense of which candidate has the wind at his back. Moreover, I beleive that we usually see some correlation with state polls a couple of days after the national polls.
October 20, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
VA out of play? That must not be good for Mac. He loses the reace if that's the case. KEEP WORKING! Ras leans Repub so this news is even mroe significant.
October 20, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
And let's not forget about Obama's mystery buy of 30 minutes of primetime air Oct. 29th. Not sure what he's planning, but I bet it'll help wherever we are in that final week. Maybe McCain'll be able to afford a classified ad in the Pennysaver by then...
October 20, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
McSame's sph!ncter may be tightening!
October 20, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink