CBS/NYT Poll: Obama Winning Big -- If New Voters Turn Out
The new CBS/New York Times poll gives Barack Obama a big lead over John McCain: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, not significantly different from a 52%-39% Obama lead last week.
Some polls show a tighter race, while others generally agree with the CBS/NYT number -- and it turns out the difference comes down to whether you believe the much-discussed new voters will turn out in the end.
This particular poll's likely-voter model is breaking from the traditional requirement that respondents will need to have voted before -- it predicts that 13% of registered voters will be likely voters casting their first ballot ever for president.
And, the poll informs us, this group is going to Obama by a 60%-31% margin. If those new voters turn out, Obama could win in a blowout.
Of course, if these voters don't show up in the end -- and they haven't in the past -- it could be a whole lot closer.
True, but I still believe that all previous models have to be thrown out the window vis-a-vis this election.
It's going to make new rules. He's changing the electoral map - that ain't so far-fetched. Reagan did it and he did it with a campaign that Obama learned a lot from.
Optimism. It's a damn nice place to be after 10 or more years of nonstop snark and cynicism. It feels good.
October 30, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fuck yeah!
October 30, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still think it's pretty funny when people claim these RV / LV splits when it comes to this election. While there still will be a gap between the two it will be pretty narrow this year.
Does anybody have the numbers on what it was like for clinton in 92? He definitely pulled in a lot of first timers for that election.
October 30, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't have any numbers on new voters for you, but speaking of B. Clinton, this made me feel happy yesterday--
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/the-element-of-surprise/?ei=5070&emc=eta1
October 31, 2008 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't have any numbers on new voters for you, but speaking of B. Clinton, this made me feel happy yesterday--
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/the-element-of-surprise/?ei=5070&emc=eta1
October 31, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
You got that right!...
-Sho got that right.
October 30, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hamatreya, earth song. One of my favorite poems.
October 30, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric! WTF?!
Dude, I've never argued with you before, ever. I've seen you get dissed by the crew here day after day for being more pessimistic than Jacob Marley himself on Christmas Eve.
But, WTF? Do you watch MSNBC at all? Because tonight, Keith Olbermann's show had footage from the early voting states that made my heart beat so fast it nearly tore out of my chest.
Dude. You best have posted this before seeing Keith tonight.
October 30, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some polls (e.g. today's Fox) show a tighter race because they're weighting party ID differently, not because of the likely voter model.
I'll take any kind of Obama win. I'd prefer a massive blowout of epic proportions. I'll take a 50+1 win, if that's what it comes down to, if the new voters don't turn out.
October 30, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Though if all of those "Joe the Plumbers" don't come out the way he didn't for McCain's rally today, then I think we're looking at a blowout.
October 30, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Still, thousands of unregistered students can be bused in.
October 30, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was another awesome, pathetic moment today, wasn't it? I have the feeling that, around Friday of next week (which is when I plan to come down from my buzz and face the real world again-god will I be shitfaced on Wednesday morning) I'm going to miss all of this.
October 30, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can also take the non-scientific, enthusiasm tact. Last Saturday in ABQ, Obama drew 45k+ and McCain (same day same city) drew, I think, 3k.
Morale completely changes a basketball game, a football game, a battle, and it can and will change these poll numbers. This shit McCain's putting out right now is just to dampen this non-measurable number. Is it working? I may be wrong, but I bet it's backfiring.
October 30, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
See, here's the thing. Barack's been setting records all year. In campaign donations, volunteers, members of his websites (official and others, i.e. facebook, myspace, et. al.), he outnumbered everybody. Everybody. He withstood everything he could come across so far in just the primaries -- and while some pundits say there've been nastier ones, and it's not bean bag....um.....well, it could've been prettier -- BUT it all turned out good in the end! And in all of these things, Barack has held steady. The man has a spine of steel. Not cold steel, though. Warm.
I think his heart warms it.
The dude is smooth, smart, and he's gonna be our next President. And I think he's gonna do well.
Chill out. Pessimism and arguments aren't what the man needs. He's not made that way. He could use our support and enthusiasm and ideas and energy. He doesn't need our ugliness. No one does.
October 30, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, sorry. This comment was meant for the pessimists in general, and not anyone I'm responding to above.
October 30, 2008 11:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't imagine people who registered for this election cycle NOT voting. Sorry I just cannot.
October 30, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't either and registration is stunning. Michigan, last I heard, had registered 98% of those eligible to vote.
October 30, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is an incredible number. Very heartening, and a real punch in the face to all of the cynics out there.
October 30, 2008 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
What else is extremely heartening is that almost all the GOP attempts to suppress voting have fallen flat.
Bush made believers out of Americans by god - quit taking democracy for granted!
October 30, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's truly beautiful. It's like all of these older Americans are waking up at the same time a generational shift is taking place. I wish I was better at explaining what that means, just a great feeling that I have.
October 30, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know exactly. My parents are in their late seventies, and for the last several years have been depressed by what they see happening to this country. In the depths of 2006, my mother actually said she was glad she wouldn't live to see what this country was coming to under Bush.
Now, they are the most fired-up politically I have ever seen - for Obama!
They are excited and hopeful and eager - and I have to stop typing now because I'm crying.
October 31, 2008 8:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right. Those newly registered this cycle and those already registered years ago but didn't vote recently are two totally different groups.
October 30, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
After seeing MCain do his grumpy old man bit on TPMTV, it's a wonder that he's pulling 41% at all.
He's so not cutting it.
October 30, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT, kind of.
Obama really slams the repug way of life on Maddow's show. He is looking and sounding very, very confident.
What a difference between him and the repugs.
October 30, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
He said the 6 magic words my dears: I'm winning this election right now.
He knows.
October 30, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but 'right now' isn't Tuesday...
OUCH, someone punched me through my screen again!!
October 30, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just quoting him.
And you know Obama by now - when does he ever say the wrong thing?
When has he ever "popped off."
October 30, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
He doesn't. I think Obama actually gets the youtube era. Biden's learning. But Palin and McCain? Not a chance.
You know I was just joking in my last comment, right?
October 30, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes.
I don't seem antagonistic do I?
October 30, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
And what's so intelligent is the way he is slamming the administration of the last 8 years, not republicans in general. It's why he can win over reasonable conservatives. And no snarks about "reasonable conservatives", folks. They exist, and they're breaking for Obabma.
October 30, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I've got a semi-conservative friend in Kansas City (he actually works for a local oil company, no less), whose swinging for Obama. He called it a choice between a "geezer and a Professional".
October 30, 2008 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, that's good to hear.
October 30, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm in central Tx and know quite a few. We could go blue after the Reaganobots die off.
October 30, 2008 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, you may have just sent our friend Tena into another stratosphere altogether.
October 30, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
TenaX 2016!
October 30, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
There is a Repug contingent in Texas who are dying off, frankly - all the old time big money names in Dallas, for example, are dying off. The whole demographic of the state is changing.
We'll go blue next time.
I wanted it to be now - I'm dreaming like you won't believe, but I don't think about it much.
One can only ask for so much from the universe in one fell swoop.
;)
October 30, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd be willing to relocate my family to TX to make this happen next cycle. Can it be close to Lockhart so I can frequent Kreuz BBQ?
That's all I ask.
October 30, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I think I know where Tena can get some really sparkly designer clothes ready-made for campaigning, on discount!
October 30, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome! You should check out my friend Josh's blog on Tx Barbecue and other fine dining. It's a blast. Ever had the sauce at City Market in Luling? I know vegetarians that go there to buy sauce.
October 30, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
the blog, (sorry, I was on the phone):
http://spasticsynapse.blogspot.com/
October 30, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, thanks for the link. I've spent many great times in TX, and will check this out for sure. I was a traveling musician for the first 30 or so years of my life and we'd go a hundred miles out of our way for some great TX BBQ.
Is this off topic? lol
October 30, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep! It's kind of like getting cut with a really sharp knife. Sometimes you see the blood before you even realize you've been cut.
October 30, 2008 8:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like that!
October 30, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
In other words, it's all about the ground game now. And those of us who have legs in good enough shape to walk, and voices in good enough shape to talk should be canvassing and phone banking this weekend. WE can make the CBS/NYT voter model look prescient. (Not that there aren't a whole lot of better reasons to be out there pounding the pavement.)
October 30, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am going to tell you all: Barack Obama's GOTV Ground Game effort is the most organized GOTV effort in the history of political elections. If you look at early voting numbers, you can see that these "new" voters are coming out. I have personal, first-person stories of these voters coming out and voting early, or committed to voting on election day. They will turn out. They already are.
October 30, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I saw a quote from some Repug who said what you are saying and said: "it's scary."
LOL!
I'm sure it is terrifying to Repugs.
When I caucused for Obama in my not very large precinct, there were over 2000 Democrats there caucusing for both candidates. There were exactly 10 Repugs trying to have a meeting out in the hall and you should have seen their faces as we just kept appearing and the lines got longer.
They were seeing their future.
October 30, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
My office has a lot of twenty-somethings that are absolutely plugged in to this election. Many of them have already voted early here in Colorado. I really believe that even the best-case polls will be surpassed.
October 30, 2008 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe it, too.
October 30, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word.
Just got done reading my poll monitor training materials and, let's just say its looking to me like the mofos will vote if Obama has to send Nathan and his cohorts out to dart 'em, cuff 'em and physically stand their asses up in the line at the polling place.
October 30, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
The striking number for me is McCain's 41%. Pretty low still. I'd love to see him end up below 40, which would send a message to anyone willing to run this kind of sleazy campaign in the future.
Hear what I'm sayin' Libby Dole?
October 30, 2008 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dare we start a "THIS" chain?
October 30, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 30, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
October 30, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 30, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR SARAH
October 30, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
PROVIDED SHE CAN SHIFT THE BLAME!
October 30, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
TO UNREGISTERED PLUMBERS
October 30, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
SILVERMAN!
October 30, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR THAT ONE!
October 30, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR HILLARY CLINTON!!!!
October 30, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
PRINCESS SPARKLE STARBURST, HER BARRACUDANESS
October 30, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
BIG TEETH, ALL SLIME, ALL THE TIME!
October 30, 2008 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know where Eric gets that. A light voter screen simply goes on the likelihood to vote scale..and that is what most polls including robopolls do.
So too it turns out does Gallup's LVII..which Eric uses every day in his tracker average
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111121/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Expanded.aspx
October 30, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
it turns out the difference comes down to whether you believe the much-discussed new voters will turn out in the end.This particular poll's likely-voter model is breaking from the traditional requirement that respondents will need to have voted before --
October 30, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think they're waiting for election day. I've seen so many youts (yes youts) who are energized for Barackatak.
October 30, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
hey watch this video. Its important for the upcoming election. Take a look. "McCain Voter Fraud" on youtube.com. Heres the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGF-HEd6XnA
October 30, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hilarious.
October 30, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been having that dream for years. We need a landslide to overcome this shit. I hope BO and the new congress will deal with election reform before the mid-term. KICK SOME ASS! I want Pelosi cutting nuts and I want Harry to grow some.
Is that wrong?
Growing up is hard to do. America is trying.
October 30, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Big if. None of the polls have found ANY sign of young voters turning out. The youth, as usual, will find some last hour justification for not voting. Bet on it!
October 30, 2008 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
O I'm so sure you're right.
All your concern the last couple of days has made me see the light.
October 30, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. What if they find Obama as uninspiring as they found Kerry?
October 30, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahh, da yoot vote. Lemme check the intrade numbers....
OK, I'll take that bet.
October 30, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
My point isn't that Obama is going to lose. If you actually read my post, all I said was that the youth, a significant subset of new voters, wouldn't show up.
The early vote in Florida.....
(http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-earlyvote3008oct30,0,5283353.story)
"But voters younger than 35 -- especially the college-age group that has drawn so much attention from Democrat Barack Obama's campaign -- are doing what they have largely done in elections past: staying home."
The early vote in Nevada.....
(http://www.lvrj.com/news/33494194.html)
"While turnout statewide was nearly 25 percent through Sunday, it was just 20 percent among Hispanic voters, 14 percent among voters under 30 and 15 percent among those who didn't vote in the last three elections, according to an analysis of state early voting records through Sunday prepared by America Votes, an organization that works to mobilize voters."
October 30, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, came back after me. Past really is prologue, I guess!
Is this the part where you ask me if I'm distracted by shiny objects?
October 30, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
anyway, if you can work past the hurt feelings and look through those articles, you'll find a couple of things to be concerned about. Again, I'm saying Obama will lose. Even with a 2000-esque youth turnout, Obama is ahead.
October 30, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol Hurt feelings?
Nice Freudian slip in there, btw.
October 30, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll take you up on that bet. They will turn out in record numbers.
October 30, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh wow, you are a classic whistling-past-the-graveyarder! What an easy bet! I'll definitely take it! You've got no evidence whatsoever to base your comment on. Remember, the youth vote *did* get out for Kerry, more so than ever before. A simple check of the stats would have shown you. And it will be considerably higher this time around.
October 30, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fair enough. I agree with that. Rather, I don't believe youth turnout will exceed 2004, if at all.
A couple of sour notes on the youth turnout so far...
(http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-earlyvote3008oct30,0,5283353.story)
(http://www.lvrj.com/news/33494194.html)
And these are states where Obama has been trying to jack up turnout.
October 30, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't it new voters who put Obama over the top in Iowa and other primary states?
I'm just guessing but if Dean had been the nominee in 2004, the first time vote probably would have been higher.
What's different about the Obama organization, is how young it is, compared to most presidential campaigns. If that's any indication, the kids will turn out in droves.
October 31, 2008 2:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can spend all day on Nov. 5th parsing the voter demographics, and I'm sure you will probably be able to hang on to your theory....Just don't wake me, Because I will be sleeping off a huge OBAMA is POTUS hangover!
October 30, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's difficult at best to predict the behavior of new voters. However, by simply paying attention we know that this year is different from other years in terms of the motivation and enthusiasm of very large numbers of young men and women. They don't all have to show up and certainly not all of them will. Having said that, if only 30 or 40 percent of them show up it could have a huge impact on the outcome in numerous states where the polls are indicating a tight race. No one could be foolish enough to be counting on all of them actually voting.
Typically about 20% or so would show up to vote. This year, however, something different is clearly going on among the young people and it seems a fairly safe bet to say that more will show up this year than typically do. Given the vast numbers in that category this year, if 50% show up it could turn a close victory into a comfortable one. And remember, we're just talking about young, first time voters as opposed to all newly registered voters. I have to say that whatever the number ends up being it is very likely to play a significant role in the outcome.
October 30, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is anecdotal stuff, but I've directly heard at least one example of this, and I've seen it on a few blogs. It seems that some (and really, it's impossible to know how many) youth/new voters are purposely bypassing early/mail voting to vote on Election Day.
They know all about long lines, please vote early, blah blah blah. But their thinking runs along these lines:
Something really big is going to happen on November 4th. And I want to be a part of it, by voting on that day.
I've been a part of too many campaigns where the expected youth vote failed to materialize on the fateful day, so I don't want to get my hopes up too high. But in this campaign centered around Hope and Change, I might spare a little of one word, expecting the other.
October 30, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check this video out, its important for the upcoming election. "McCain Voter Fraud" on youtube.com. Heres the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGF-HEd6XnA
October 30, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just did some phone banking for Barack this evening. Good to comeback and read some good news.
October 30, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
How'd the phone banking go?
October 30, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was good.It's not the first time I volunteered for Obama. I did quite a bit of phone banking within the New York State during the primaries.
This time I went to "Call for Barack," party in uptown New york. They already had a list of phone numbers we could call.
I called about 15 residents in Bristol, Burlington and Borderstown in PA. I got to call pretty much registered democrats. Three of them said they voted Hillary in the primaries but had no problem voting for Barack. One said he was voting for McCain. I asked why? He said he wants to honor McCain's military service. Others sounded pretty much like voting for Obama.
We were not calling just to urge to vote. But also providing them with information on the nearest Obama office or house party they can attend in the next four days and can sign up to volunteer in their local area. Three of them seemed very interested to attend GOTV events in their local areas.
I'm attending another Phone Banking event here at an art gallery over the weekend.
October 30, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're a good guy.
October 30, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign in a big way.
October 30, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too.
October 30, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, let's register, organize our campus, knock on doors, get all fired up about Obama....but on Nov. 4th, oh sorry, got some laundry to do.
I don't think so, they're showing up, in big numbers.
October 30, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cosign. That's the big difference from Kerry in '04 - youth were saying they were for Kerry in polls, but they weren't out working for him, knocking on doors, calling, etc.
If the only people under 35 who vote for Obama are the ones who have spent even one day calling, walking, mailing, whatever, it'll more than voted dem in '04.
October 31, 2008 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
at the training i took today to work the polls on election day, the deputy clerk said the precinct that includes the university had about 1,900 registered voters four years ago but has about 4,200 this time around!!!
the only early voting michigan has is a very restrictive (albeit on the honor system) absentee ballot. here in my city they've really ramped up the staffing and beefed up the precincts/polling locations to try handling it. four years ago the lines were several hours long. let's hope that doesn't happen this time. but it's definitely something to keep an eye on in states like michigan where early voting is very limited.
October 30, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for your effort and report. Let's get those new guys out to vote!
October 30, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just now sent another donation ($100) to the campaign. With only five (or six) days to go, I'm done, I think (and I'm almost broke, that's for sure, LOL). But who knows. They sent out two emails about the resource gap in one day today, and I read Scum is closing the ad gap now (though by sacrificing other states).
I know the money we sent has been extremely well spent. I just wish I could do more.
October 30, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just watched part of a McDegraded campaign speech on NBC. What really struck me was the contrast between the audience's response to all the usual tired crap being spouted, almost all of it lies.
They clapped listlessly, as if out of politeness. faces were glumm. Cindy stood there with a sour almost-smile nailed to her praying-mantis face, while everyone else looked glum or resigned or bored.
I got the powerful impression that even McSlime's supporters don't like the man--like having to vote for the asshole was a painful duty, like getting root-canal.
The contrast with an Obama audience was instructive. O's audience were wildly enthused and excited. People were smiling and laughing and looking happy and engaged. They clearly loved Obama and were clearly eager to vote for him. I hope this is indicative of the result. I devoutly hope so...
October 30, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are right. So many "McCain voters" will cast their ballot not for him, but against Obama. McScum has never had any real love from the party establishment in the first place, and now many of his fan must have been rightfully turned off as they seeing the campaign he's running. He doesn't have any love or any real support.
At this point of the campaign, you are supposed to draw large, enthusiastic crowds. Instead he bused in nearby school kids to fill his event. Instead of keep scattering crap the next five days he should concede now.
p.s., I'm glad you survived McScum's speech!
October 30, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're onto something here Jack. It explains the turnout at his rallies, and the hate. If you know you're behind, you become bitter and start lashing out.
And Cindy, jeesh. I know that I'm going to get some shit for saying this, but if she doesn't look the picture of an abused wife, then I guess I have no radar for that kind of stuff at all.
October 30, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I also meant to say, lashing out or just giving up. They look beat.
October 30, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know why anyone would give you any shit for pointing out the obvious. Perhaps McScum's stopped physically abusing her, (according to Az. Doctors, she used to turn up in the ER exhibiting all the typical signs and marks of spousal abuse),but as things go down the toilet for the McCombover gang, you can bet she gets the sharp edge of his tongue, if not worse. She does not look like a happy woman.
October 30, 2008 9:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the way "cunt" rolls off his tongue, you can bet she gets that a lot.
October 30, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
She is really messed up and very unhappy is right.
I just don't get her at all - why she stays with him. She's got the money. I don't have a lick of respect for her - I wouldn't put up with that little shit for 10 minutes and especially not if I was a fucking heiress.
October 30, 2008 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought the same, honestly. She looks like a mind-controlled, brain-washed battered woman who manages to keep control of her wealth anyway but has lost control of anything else about her life.
October 30, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a perfect description of her - quite an insight - she's lost control of her life.
I strongly suspect that she's anorexic -
October 30, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
His is a classic American male story, isn't it? Leave first wife for wife with money. Translate that wealth into power. Recognize in your subconscious that she has the money that makes you the man. Lash out at her.
Pathetic.
October 30, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
They are a very pathetic couple. I see nothing there.
October 30, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see vampires.
October 30, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
This may have been posted already, but I'm posting it anyway as I just now saw it. "Robots Attack!" video from the campaign.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg56KbtmARc
Unlike the lunatic fringe on the other side, they never lose a sense of humor. No wonder though, humor is impossible without sanity and intelligence.
October 30, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops, sorry, a wrong thread.
October 30, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep.Not too much Psycho analysis needed there. John and Cindy what you see is what you get.
Plastic on the top and shallow inside.
October 30, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if she is abused or not, but she sure looks like she is high a lot; not an herbal look, rather the look of someone hooked on Xanax. A few pills and a martini kind of air about her. Or maybe just mean.
October 30, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they don't come out we win by 5, if they do we win by 9. We like to procrastinate though, so we won't vote early, we will show up on election day. I'm in NY though so I couldn't vote early even if I wanted to.
October 30, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be honest. May be because I'm in New York or because I hardly watch any news on TV, I'm surprised by the broken attack machine of the GOP.
I do know they are throwing these ridiculous, flabbergasting smears against Obama, but I don't find any co-ordinated and well crafted fear tactis to rally their troops and bring O down.
I just don't.
October 30, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where in New York? I live in Manhattan.
October 30, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I recently moved to Brooklyn, but still spend a lot of time with friends near Columbia Univ.
October 30, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think there are any.
The party is not functional. They are just going off in 50 different directions, throwing money away on chocolate elephants and Palin's shopping spree -
There's no party organization left.
October 30, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not even that they have the "red meat" to tear Obama down. It's that people literally don't care. They want to know how you will help them. Obama and Bill are masters at knowing what the electorate wants, it's very keen.
Remeber when McPalin were slightly ahead agter the convention (yeah I can barely remember it too) it was because of cultural issues. Obama, during that time said that once this race got back to substantive issues they would end up ahead, and look what happened. Now McPalin are losing both culturally and substantially.
October 30, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've got this Sam & Dave tune going on: "Hold On! - I'm Coming! Ho-old On - I'm Coming!"
I'm "..solid [for Barack]"...
October 30, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sam and Dave?! Man, you must be really old! (just kidding, I remember them).
October 30, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
New voters, republican defectors, a huge chunk of independents are all needed to begin this re-alignment of American politics.
Obama needs to claim a mandate through an overwhelming victory. He needs so many votes that congress will work with him, and not against him.
This is a moment in politics that occurs every few generations, and it needs to be capitalized on.
I don't know what the historians will call the Obama era, progressive realism, or economic fairness. It should look like the New Deal, but tailored for the problems of these times. Reagan called his a "New Beginning" for whatever that was worth. I'm sure Obama will have a fitting theme for the plans and work ahead.
October 30, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The AP is reporting that BO has asked Rham Emmanuel to be his WH chief of staff if he wins on tuesday
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_RDP?SITE=NEYOR&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
October 30, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
BULLSHIT, No way in hell the Obama campaign would let that leak.
October 30, 2008 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ambinder has a story up about Rahm Emanuel being asked to join the potential Obama White House as Chief of Staff. Now of course all sides are denying the rumor, the Republicans are jumping on it saying Obama's post-partisan image he's selling is phony if he's thinking about bring in brass-knuckle brawler Rahm to be C-O-S.
I know many folks in the progressive movement hate Rahm's politics and DLC connection, but he'd make a hell of an enforcer/bad cop to keep folks in line. This would allow Obama to stay above the day-to-day politics, allowing Rahm to be his bulldog. Rahm is very partisan, however is that out of loyalty, and would that loyalty go to the Obama White House?
No others believe Emanuel is being floated to step the "pallin' around with anti-semites" talk bubbling out of the McCain Camp gutter right now.
What is crazy is "The West Wing" connection here - Matt Santos was modeled off of Obama, and his COS Josh Lyman, was modeled off of Emanuel.
October 30, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frankly, I would expect Rahm to run for Obama's senate seat rather than join the White House team.
October 30, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jesse Jackson Jr is supposedly lined up for that spot.
October 30, 2008 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, he's has far too much power in the House. Why give that up to become the junior-est Senator?
The Senate seat goes to Jackson Jr. or Madigan.
October 30, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope. Most likely thats going to Lisa Madigan.
October 30, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I seriously doubt Blagojevich will ever name anyone named Madigan to anything more than dogcatcher.
There's some buzz around Tammy Duckworth, and people like Bill Daley and Jan Schakowsky are also possibilities, but I would expect Jesse Jackson Jr. to end up with it.
October 31, 2008 12:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
The best way to keep Madigan from running against him would be to give her a safe Senate seat. If he doesn't care about that, then yeah, she doesn't get the nod.
It's most likely Jackson Jr.
October 31, 2008 6:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Third paragraph should read:
October 30, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is an article on Huffpo rthat was taken right after the Primaries that said "No Dems supporting Obama? Rahm will handle it..."
He would definitely keep people in line and get the job done.
October 30, 2008 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been liking me some Rahm lately.
And I like looking at him for sure.
October 30, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just one weekend to go ... each minute that goes by my nervous anticipation grows. Not nervous about losing -- we are gonna win this thing. Just ready to have it happen! I'm poll-watching first thing Tuesday a.m. then driving people to vote later on. It is gonna be the greatest day ... we killed them in 2006 and here we are again!
October 30, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just one weekend to go ... each minute that goes by my nervous anticipation grows. Not nervous about losing -- we are gonna win this thing. Just ready to have it happen! I'm poll-watching first thing Tuesday a.m. then driving people to vote later on. It is gonna be the greatest day ... we killed them in 2006 and here we are again!
October 30, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard a rumor
October 30, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm so excited move beyond Nov 4 and focusing on the Obama cabinet, his honeymoon days before the oath of office.
Four more days. Can't go fast enough.
October 30, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's had his transition team picked and working behind the scenes for months.
He's ready to walk right in and take over.
I can't wait.
October 30, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me try this again. I heard a ruomor that Obama was thinking about Fitzgerald for AG....just a rumor, right?
October 30, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where did you hear that?
That would be the answer to a very fervent prayer of mine - I think that one is a gimme.
Fitzgerald is married to the law and he could come in and he has the background information on a lot of shit from his investigation.
I think he's the perfect pick.
I was so wrong about Biden that I hesitate to say this - but I would just love to see Patrick Fitzgerald as AG - o god I would.
October 30, 2008 11:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
When Emmanuel was advising another democrat he told him that he needed to get out and do more fundraisers so he could be have money to buy enough t.v ads. The candidate was a little testy, but finally relented.
He raised enough money to defend himself against a smear that came late in the New Hampshire primary. The candidate didn't win the primary, but he did go on to become president. The year 1992; the candidate Bill Clinton, and that's the rest of the story...
October 30, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
That seems like some pretty simple advice.
October 30, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
So was "let the weapons inspectors finish their work..."
October 30, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Touche my friend, touche....
October 30, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rahm is pretty cool. Modern James Bond style politician.
Lots of energy and coolness.
October 30, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very cool, love that.
October 30, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think John McCain is a narcissist. I don't necessarily like giving titles to behavior, but if you have ever had to deal with this disorder, then you know the signs. I believe Cindy is your typical narcissist's wife. Also, as for broken bones, she did have the wrist thing a couple of months ago.
October 30, 2008 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're right - I also think Cmmdr CooCoo is a narcissist.
What's been such an eye-opener to me is how much worse it seems McLame's neuroses are than Bush's even.
October 30, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm watching Colbert now -
Am I only one who just thinks he's the funniest man alive? After Eddie Izzard...
October 30, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is so talented. And very bright in his approach to comedy. I was depressed when he left TDS, but he has more than made up for that move.
October 30, 2008 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
He strikes me as extremely bright.
October 30, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I personally like Jon Stewart more than Colbert. I often find Jon more politically poignant.
I love Colbert for his silliness.
Jon Stewart
David Letterman
Sthephen Colbert
Bill Maher
My favs in that order.
October 30, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mine are:
Hannity's America
Glen Beck
Lou Dobbs
Laura Ingram
in no particular order. I sometimes watch the reruns late at night. Lou Dobbs is so dreamy.
October 30, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
We both have more or less the same dose of comedy per week.
October 31, 2008 12:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone else watching The Daily Show. OMG so funny
October 30, 2008 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Last night Stewart was hysterical on Obama's infomerical:
"It began with scenes of actual amber waving grain ..."
When a political comedian can make you laugh at sendups of your own favorite politican, he's more than good - he's a genius.
October 31, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unless the Emanuel as COS leak was intentional, I think the fact it's out could hurt the possibility of it happening, because Obama runs a tight ship and it obviously means it came from somebody in the Emanuel camp. Ambinder says the sources are legit, so it wasn't somebody just reading the tea leaves.
Obama's "Team of Rivals" might end up meaning "democratic rivals" as Dean and Rahm pretty much detest each other (though at the end of the day they know they're playing on the same team). Emanuel is a hardcore DLC Clintonista HOWEVER didn't endorse during the primary which is very telling itself.
October 30, 2008 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frankly it's four days too early to speculate. Also, electoral implications of this "leak" are insignificant.
We still have a election to win...
October 30, 2008 11:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Emmanuel will have a role of some type maybe not chief of staff, and definitely not press secretary. Imagine a stream of bleeps at press conferences.
There will be former Clinton people like Laura D'Andrea Tyson, and some new faces lke Austan Goolsbee.
October 31, 2008 12:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Future majority is saying that 80% of registered youth do actually vote, judging by 2004.
http://www.futuremajority.com/node/3307
The problem in the past has been low registration rates, rather than low turnout of registered voters.
I guess we'll see what happens on the 4th, but there is some cause for optimism.
October 30, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I likes it a lot. It makes me feel bubbly!
I knew that was a myth - that young voters didn't turn out in '04. It's a right wing lie - StiltonCheddar.
In fact they have been turning out and I really trust them to get it done this time.
I don't know what age qualifies for young voter status, but we have some regulars who I think fit who are dedicating chunks of their lives volunteering for the campaign. Nathan, for example.
October 30, 2008 11:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, don't forget the percentages of new voters who turn out are a fraction of a much larger pie than 2004.
October 31, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I have mentioned this before, but Bush is going to run amok with deregulating environmental rules, real estate laws, etc., and they say (WaPo) that a new administration will have a tough time overturning them without loads of paperwork and valuable time loss. Very depressing.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/30/AR2008103004749.html?hpid=topnews
October 30, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and going after medical leave and family leave, nice.
October 30, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, gang, I just checked the weather report for November 4.
Looks like sunny and in the 60s for most of the country!
God must love us after all. He won't even let loose with some McCain Rain.
October 31, 2008 12:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. I saw the forecast just a bit ago...60's and sunny. :) It's gonna be a beautiful day.
October 31, 2008 12:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tuesday Nov. 4 - Taos - Sunny and high around 62.
October 31, 2008 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
There could be a big time snow storm on Tuesday in Colorado and Wyoming.
October 31, 2008 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
CA central: Rain stops on Tuesday, karma or what, after a week of it :)
October 31, 2008 12:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
BTW: WTF is wrong with Kansas, just saw this post of Huffington. I guess that is why the guy wrote the book: 'What's wrong with Kansas?' I thought maybe they would be a little more enlightened by now. Is anyone here from there?
Blog quote:
"I've been working for him (Obama) in Missouri because Kansas is hopeless, we are not even going to get rid of that Bush enabler Sen. Pat Roberts".
October 31, 2008 12:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tues. Seattle - Showers, 48 degrees..Perfect! My county is all mail in vote. Go Gregoire and Burner!
October 31, 2008 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is so cool - from a story in the NYT on Sarah Palin and polls:
You know, if that's a valid finding, that is really cool.
October 31, 2008 12:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I forgot the link - http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/us/politics/31poll.html?_r=2&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
October 31, 2008 12:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a youth voter who did vote for Kerry in 04, but wasn't too excited. Obama has inspired me and I plan on voting. I believe that a lot of youth like me are waiting until the 4th to vote. The novelty of voting for a history changing candidate on the actual day is worth standing in a long line. I hope there are a lot of people like me. Also, I know we're all worrying about a McCain steal but I think Obama's going to win in a landslide.
October 31, 2008 12:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Using simple algebra, one can break it down assuming none of the new voters turn out. Obama 44, McCain 37 (and apparently 6% undecided) is the weighting among the remaining 87% of the voters. Extrapolate that and Obama still wins something like 53-44.
October 31, 2008 1:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
God I cannot wait until Nov. 5.
Good night, my dears.
October 31, 2008 1:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Using simple algebra, one can break it down assuming none of the new voters turn out. Obama 44, McCain 37 (and apparently 6% undecided) is the weighting among the remaining 87% of the voters. Extrapolate that and Obama still wins something like 53-44.
October 31, 2008 1:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
For the record, my hometown of Bloomington Indiana has three early polling places: one on campus (Indiana University--30,000 students) and two for the other 65,000 or so residents. Early this week the local paper said turnout on campus outnumbered the other two stations combined. I think the "youth" are turning out!
October 31, 2008 1:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think if Americans are allowed to really vote, Obama wins. But I think Bush would have lost last time if the vote hadn't been stolen. Nobody is concerned about that?
October 31, 2008 1:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
matyra: "...You can also take the non-scientific, enthusiasm tact. Last Saturday in ABQ, Obama drew 45k+ and McCain (same day same city) drew, I think, 3k..."
Worse than that; McCain drew 1000 to 1500. And 3 days later Michelle Obama drew ~3000 supporters to her event in northern New Mexico.
October 31, 2008 1:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
matyra: "...You can also take the non-scientific, enthusiasm tact. Last Saturday in ABQ, Obama drew 45k+ and McCain (same day same city) drew, I think, 3k..."
Worse than that; McCain drew only 1000 to 1500 in ABQ. And 3 days later Michelle Obama drew ~3000 supporters to her event in a small city of 16,000 in northern New Mexico
October 31, 2008 1:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
"POLLING SHOCKER! IN LAST DAYS, McCAIN CLOSES GAP TO ONE POINT!(?)"
No, that's not real. It's typical of what Drudge had been running till yesterday, though, scavenging far and wide to find some oddball outlier poll, then liberally pissing his trowsers in odiferous excitement over his banner-headline "discovery."
Yesterday and today, though, he is micturating himself just a bit less. Maybe he finally got the memo? After the election, we'll see if the giddy pants-wetter considers any actual toilet training. Yucch!, in any event.
October 31, 2008 3:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
That ominous "and they haven't in the past" is troubling.
October 31, 2008 4:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Greg for your cynical "vote of confidence" in the "new voters".
Jeez, no wonder dems have been losing out in the past elections.
As a lib, dem leaning blogger, I would have been happy if you had bothered to spin this in a positive way to encourage those silly "new voters" to move their asses and vote now.
October 31, 2008 4:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Eric. Not Greg. Eric The Cynic :P
October 31, 2008 7:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I swear when I saw this, it had Greg's name. I can't believe my deceiving eyes.
I think Eric is channeling Ben Smith of Politico.
October 31, 2008 7:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Reading this thread I get the feeling that if Obama doesn't finally win, there are going to be mass suicides. The RCP has him below 50% today.
October 31, 2008 5:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Reading this thread I get the feeling that if Obama doesn't finally win, there are going to be mass suicides. The RCP has him below 50% today.
October 31, 2008 5:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well actually RCP has it 50% to 44% as of now.
October 31, 2008 5:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Reading this thread I get the feeling that if Obama doesn't finally win, there are going to be mass suicides. The RCP has him below 50% today.
I'm almost certain people don't usually gather around in a party.
I don't mind reading a crtical comment, but If I may, please refrain from offerring your company during moments of strss.
"If Obama looses you'll die, Obama came one step closer to loosing this morning..."
Geez....Good morning and have a good day.
October 31, 2008 6:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign.
October 31, 2008 7:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, McScum now needs endorsement from the celebrity cum terrorist cum socialist cum Muslim cum godless communist?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqaoSzSGFNw
Wow... pathetic. I'm sure so many people will change their mind and vote for Scum. Idiot!
October 31, 2008 7:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good morning! It was fun reading through this thread over my morning coffee. Nice to get the positive vibe, especially after Eric Fest.
41 States. 404 EVs. Everybody's voting this year: Yoots and Coots and Puss in Boots. TX goes blue this year, dancing the LBJ Slide!
Yeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaa!
October 31, 2008 8:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
406 EV votes is our high water mark(that would include (ND,MT,GA,AZ,IN)
October 31, 2008 8:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Barack was right to tell us to chill the fuck out...he WAS on it!
October 31, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I figured out what the numbers would be with regular voters in this poll.
Regular voters: 87% of the electorate
Obama 50.8%, McCain 42.5% (8.3% margin)
New voters: 13% of electorate
Obama 60%, McCain 31% (29% margin).
Total votes: (100% of electorate)
Obama 52%, McCain 41% (11% margin).
Not too much different.
Here's how I figured it out.
Obama's number x(.87)+60(.13)=52(1)
McCain's number y(.87)+52(.13)=41(1)
The stuff in the parenthesis is multiplying the numbers by .87 for the 87% regular voters, and .13 for the 13% new voters. You add new + regular to get the total vote which is 1 or 100%.
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah....
October 31, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
About that youth vote, I almost reverse-swallowed my oatmeal this morning on being greeted with the latest wingnut fluff piece on the front page of the Washington Post, a sob story about Falwell's Liberty University students' struggle against the nefarious and evil Obama...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/30/AR2008103004757_2.html?sid=ST2008103004790&s_pos=
Plus, here in Loudoun County, VA, we're constantly fighting the hordes from Patrick Henry College, a creepy little college for the home-schooled spawn of the "man walked with dinosaurs" crowd...
Please let it be over!!
October 31, 2008 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey,
We home-school our daughter in a cooperative of fifteen or more other families because our local district is full of knuckle-dragging religious zealots and Fox News Fascists. We work very hard to provide them with this alternative to standing in line and regurgitating state curriculum and we do it without grants or vouchers.
We often confront the stereotype that your comment promotes in public, and there are many who would take this right from us if they could.
Choosing ignorance cuts both ways.
October 31, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bless you for doing that.
I think there are two things going on here:
1) Home-schooling started in the '80s as a way for freakazoid parents to teach the Bible instead of secular education, and that's the reputation it still has. It's only been in the last decade or so, when the fundies and freakazoids have taken over the school systems, that secularists and liberals have chosen home schooling as the only way their children can learn secular facts.
2)To give CloudPhreak the benefit of the doubt, he made the reference to home schoolers in the context of "Patrick Henry College," which is, in fact, a place that gives supposed college degrees to people who believe that man walked with dinosaurs.
October 31, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. I understand the context of the comment. We actually have a lot in common with many of the conservative religious families that we know, with one 'fundamental' difference. While I begrudgingly support their right brainwash their children with stone age superstition and fascist propaganda,(in a perfect world it would be considered child abuse),I think they consider us subhuman for our secular, rational approach to teaching our children. Other than that, they can be nice folks.
October 31, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
-Apologies for the soap boxing, and back to the thread.
I think the new voters will turn out. I saw Obama in San Marcos, Tx and couldn't believe the crowd -Diverse, inspired and motivated. We've never had a choice like this. I remember being 18 and voting against Reagan. It was weird, like an asylum. Everyone was voting for the movie star.
My niece voted for the first time last week. I was so proud of her. She went with my wife, mother,sister and daughter,(not the same person, though this is Texas), and they had lunch afterword.
My mom was a Reagan Republican, but she put down the Kool Aid when Bush became Gov.
Our county caucus was historic. Lots of youth there.
They'll show.
October 31, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those voters are going to show up alright. Look at the early voting. Notice all the Black people in these lines? Obama will win in a landslide!
October 31, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink