McCain Shifting His Ad Spending From Kerry States To Bush States, A New Analysis Finds
In another sign that John McCain is on the defensive as time runs out, the McCain campaign is shifting its ad money out of blue tossup states and into red tossups and even traditionally red states, according to ad maven Evan Tracey.
McCain has dramatically slashed his ad spending in Wisconsin and New Hampshire and reduced it in Pennsylvania, suggesting that he's either losing hope or giving up hope in winning in three states that went for John Kerry in 2004, or that he doesn't have ample enough resources for them.
He's also reduced his spending in Colorado, which went for Bush but is showing a lead for Obama, suggesting he may be losing hope there, too.
"There's definitely a scaling back in those states," says Tracey, who tracks national ad spending for the Campaign Media Analysis Group and gave TPM some numbers so we could flesh out and synthesize disparate reports about various spending shifts into a big picture.
By contrast, McCain has increased his ad spending in Virginia, long a reliably red state, and in Florida, where Bush won and McCain was long expected to prevail without too much trouble. "They are definitely shifting some resources here for the endgame," Tracey says.
We asked Tracey to compare ad spending in each state on Monday of this week, or October 20th, with Monday of last week, or October 13th. The idea was to get a sense of McCain's more immediate spending shifts as the race winds down.
Here's what he found:
* McCain has dramatically slashed ad spending in Wisconsin, running 256 spots this past Monday, down from 352 the previous Monday.
* McCain has scaled back spending in New Hampshire, running 40 spots this past Monday, down from 55 the previous week.
* McCain has cut ad spending in Pennsylvania, running 284 spots this past Monday, down from 336 the previous week.
* McCain has slashed spending in Colorado, running 195 spots this past Monday, down from 243 the previous week.
And by contrast...
* McCain has increased his spending in Florida, a battleground that McCain was supposed to win without too much trouble, running 339 spots this past Monday, versus 311 the previous week.
* McCain has boosted his spending in Virginia, long reliably red but trending blue, running 182 spots this past Monday, up from 169 the previous week.
Tracey notes that there were a couple of exceptions to this pattern. For instance,he says, McCain's ad spending has also dropped in Ohio and North Carolina, two states that are effectively dead heats.
But Tracey says he thinks these shifts are not about McCain confidence in those states as much as they are about the shortage in available ad time in them that's been created by Obama's massive spending and the ad buying done in local races. In other words, McCain's getting outspent by even more than before in these dead-heat, must-win states.
I'm not sure how much more EXCELLENT NEWS the McLame campaign can take.
~
October 23, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. We're getting to a tipping point here.
October 23, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has scaled back spending in New Hampshire, running 40 spots this past Monday, down from 55 the previous week.
Well, I hope this is EXCELLENT NEWS for me as well as McCain because hopefully it means I won't be catching so many of his asinine ads here in, of all places, Boston. Only thing I've been able to figure is that we're getting bleed-over from his New Hampshire-targeted advertising. I mean, I see the occasional McCain/Palin bumper sticker here but it's not like he's ever had a prayer in Massachusetts.
October 23, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait wait wait.... this makes no sense at all, why is he pulling ads in both CO and PA. If he loses CO and doesn't gain any blue states then this race is already over. Is he even trying to get to 270 anymore? Or is he just trying to not make it a complete and utter landslide for Obama, which would tarnish McCain's legacy.
October 23, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
the thing is that there can be more than one reason for reducing expenditures -- it can be because money running out or because there isn't available ad space
October 23, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the RNC and the McCain campaign each has decided the other side is gonna lose, then that obviously means the RNC doesn't want to spend their money for the other side anymore. Meaning McCain is on his own, into October with $47 (43?) million in his hand. It's not quite surprising he is shifting his resources.
And quite frankly, anything can happen, but he is now at the point where he needs to decide whether he wants to lose everything or not...
October 23, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I don't know about ad space but the money issue wouldn't really explain CO. If he was having money issues he should be doing much bigger cuts in states he has no chance in and sending them into the states he must hold to get to 270. Of course then again if he did pull out of all the blue states completely then it would just increase the bad press he has been getting already, and piss off the GOP in those states and lower moral in their ranks.
I think the reason why its hard to figure out what they are doing is that they have no good options at this time and they just keep throwing stuff at the wall to see if anything helps them, and it also sounds like he is taking advice from to many people with to many strategies. Kind of reminds me of Hillary's campaign but to a much higher degree of chaos.
October 23, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
That doesn't add up Greg. It is only about money shortage or shifting to defense. We only know what McCain had planned to spend in these states because of reserved time so the "can't find air time" argument we have seen people push doesn't wash because they have the time reserved and are canceling/scaling back.
October 23, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I knew it was all over when they said they'd give the clothes away to charity!
October 23, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
And we all know that ain't happening.
October 23, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Palin will need the classy wardrobe for when she's doing commercials for Doritos (1996 Bob Dole reference).
October 23, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah giving up the clothes is about as likely as Bristol giving up the baby.
October 23, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sense a third-trimester "miscarriage" coming.
And yes, I can be even more vicious than that.
October 23, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean I can't trust what they say? :)
October 23, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah giving up the clothes is about as likely as Bristol's wedding.
October 23, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Intrade should start some markets. Or someone. Wouldn't that be fun?
October 23, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny how they said donating the stuff was the plan all along -- but it took them overnight to come up with that line.
October 23, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
She'll give up the clothes; otherwise they will be taxable income.
October 23, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
And what kind of big fat chance is there she'll claim them?
October 23, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I worry that McCain is pulling ads because he is relying on voter suppression in those states. Wow, am I nervous. Please reassure me. Someone? Anyone?
October 23, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's nearly broke and Colorado is moving away from him.
We don't dig that $150,000 wardrobe crap here. That's the cost of 100 acres or more of ranch land.
October 23, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, you're being nervous. Nobody pulls ads to rely on voter supression. They do it because the money ain't there. At this point McCain needs a game changing event on a national scale. Throwing up a few more ads in one state isn't going to do anything.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
October 23, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
See my post down a ways...the GOP has had at least four key setbacks in recent days on their voter suppression efforts:
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/court_throws_out_wi_ag_voting.php
October 23, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
And when all else fails...attack your own party...
McCains new, and last, strategy claiming he never really agreed with Bush...
If he really wants to clear his conscience get rid of that sorry vp pick of his.
October 23, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's obvious gang -- McCain has had to dramatically cut his spending because of money. There is no way for him to compete with the fundraising machine that is the Obama campaign.
And I'm about to make another donation...
http://thepajamapundit.com/
October 23, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg, do you mean October? Not September?
And is Obama sucking up what available time there is for advertising with his massive budget?
In other words, even if McCain had unlimited funds, it is possible that he'd still have difficulty because Obama is saturating the airwaves?
This question also pertains to the possibility of McCain doing a 30 minute infomercial after Obama. Even if he has the money, will logistics permit it?
October 23, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, god..... who would even tune in other than the "base"? (and yes, pun intended!)
October 23, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
doubtful. think about it.
thursday night (oct 30) primetime has some of the highest rated shows for some, if not all of the networks. so that night is probably out -- it would probably be too expensive for mccain, and the networks probably don't want to preempt their winner shows.
friday night (oct 31) is halloween. no one home at primetime to watch mccain.
saturday night (nov 1) is ... well, saturday. no one home.
sunday night (nov 2), you have the NFL sunday night game issue -- i don't think the NFL and NBC are going to mess with the schedule ... it would be a whole lot more than just the 8 minutes that game 6 might have to be moved.
monday night (nov 3)? most likely too late to make a difference ... and you have monday night football.
obama effectively picked the LAST POSSIBLE EFFECTIVE primetime spot.
axelrod + gibbs + obama = MCCAIN PWNT
October 23, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, I asked a question about it and your post answers it. Thanks much.
October 23, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't you think Halloween would be ...... well .... just about perfect?
(The hesitation was due to trying for snark suppression!)
October 23, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm in southern Maryland where we get many of the same ads as Virginia (I've been seeing lots of ads for Mark Warner, too). McCain is running an ad featuring the desk in the Oval Office and an ominous voice telling us that the most inexperienced man ever to run for President is about to take on an enormous crisis on day one.
I really don't see how that's going to help McCain. People have already decided that whether they agree with his policies or not, Obama is capable enough to be President. And besides that, this crisis is economic which doesn't exactly inspire confidence in McCain's ability to deal with it either.
October 23, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's really got to have a lot of people rolling around on the floor laughing since Commander CooCoo Bananas just spent the last 8 years sitting in that office.
Yup yup, you betcha!
October 23, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
W00t! I just got replied by HusseinTenaX! Does that make me an official member of the TPM Poster's Club?
October 23, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most inexpierenced outside of Lincoln and Kennedy,,,,, also FDR if you believe Hoover's rants.
Time to run the rascals out!
October 23, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I'm tempted to put the champagne (okay, a micro-brew) in the fridge to chill, I'm still concerned about the massive voter suppression efforts in states such as Colorado.
Not to get too conspiratorial, but if state elections officials were to tweak the rolls in McCain's favor, he'd still be president (and able to pardon anyone).
If such a thing were to occur (and not be definitively uncovered before December 15th), the only recourse for wholesale election fraud is impeachment.
And that could be made moot by one airstrike on Tehran, no?
October 23, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure - if that's how you like to get yourself through the day - go ahead and fantasize paranoid outcomes all you want.
Just pardon me if I don't buy one fucking bit of it.
;)
October 23, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right, of course. But then again, who would've thought the Supreme Court would shut down the 2000 recount in Florida?
October 23, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes but why the hell do people want to keep dragging us backward?
Please - this isn't 2000; this isn't 2004.
October 23, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Dragging us backward"?
Huh?
I'm just suggesting vigilance and passion. Let's prune these thugs.
October 23, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Massive voter suppression" is just suggesting vigilance?
No one should be complacent at this point, but what is gained by throwing scary terms around like "massive voter suppression" when you didn't really back-up your claim?
October 23, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
My apologies. I assumed we (mostly) follow similar news sources.
Of course, I'm heartened by the push-back in OH and WI. But I think Greg Palast makes a fairly compelling argument that the threat still exists.
Did I miss something? Is Palast in tin-foil hat land?
October 23, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's just that we aren't dailyKos. If you are going to say "massive voter fraud", you'd better have a link, probably more than one. Also are you talking about registration fraud? Or fraud with early voting. What?
That said. We've seen attempts to throw out registered voters, but they've been hampered (check out recent rulings, sorry no links but they are within the past week on TPM).
Also, none of this matters if Obama has a significant lead. It would take real massive voter fraud to make up more than a fraction of a percent in the vote totals. Looks to me that only previously red states are going to be in that boat.
October 23, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
sorry, "massive voter suppression"
October 23, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Matyra. Good points, all.
I'd be far more inclined to include links if TPM offered an embedded html editor. I've usually messed up when I've try to embed links manually.
That said, there are current reports of death threats against the OH Secretary of State.
October 23, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
On CNN. Sorry, no link for that now.
October 23, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just paste whatever the link is, and everyone can just copy and paste it into another browser window.
October 23, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/22/ohio.website.hacked/
The had an interview with Secretary Brunner on American Morning today, in which she went into further detail.
October 23, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks. Interesting article.
October 23, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to worry. Bush has royally screwed the pooch and the Republican brand is so bad that they're getting their asses handed to them all across the country - not just the Presidential election, but all down the ticket. On top of that, McCain has run one of the all-time classic incompetent campaigns - even worse than Kerry did. They can't possibly steal enough votes to swing this election.
Once Obama is safely in office they won't have the DOJ covering their backs, and all their voter suppression efforts will be opposed by a government that actually cares about such quaint things as people's right to vote.
October 23, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
What specifically are you referring to in Colorado?
October 23, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check a TPM post from Robert Nemanich on October 4th: "VOTER SUPPRESSION IN COLORADO---GOP Sec of State, final weekend of registration"
My apologies, I don't have the patience to deal with html code at the moment.
October 23, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude are you just dying to lose, or what?
October 23, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, of course - that's it.
October 23, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
My point is that I see a lot of Dems starting their end zone dances, instead of keeping their eyes on the ball.
It may be that I'm operating on old (or even exaggerated) news. But that does not make me a fatalist.
I just don't want us to pull a DeSean Jackson.
October 23, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mike Coffman was dragging his feet on less than 7,000 registrations. It's nothing near as bad as was being reported in the NYT. Even our state Democratic chair, Pat Waak, was mystified at the numbers being reported. Most have been corrected. At the worst, there are a few thousand newly registered voters who neglected to check a box and will have to vote a provisional ballot.
We have a Democratic Governor, State Senate, State House, and soon, a second US Senator. The Sec of State, Mike Coffman, is running for Tom Tancredo's House seat and wants to be seen as acceptable in this newly blue state.
October 23, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The GOP is on a losing streak with its voter-suppression efforts. Key court and AG rulings against them in Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio and Nevada.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/court_throws_out_wi_ag_voting.php
October 23, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the SCOUSA ruling put the scare in a lot of the lower courts - they're not going to get backed up by Scalia & Co. The SCOUSA ruling was so dismissive that it didn't really give even a hint of hope to the Loyal Federalist Society member in the lower courts looking for a way to hook the election for the GOP.
Of course the GOP will keep filing hoping to create Noise and an Echo Chamber that worries some voters from casting a ballot. But the way the margins are building, and the way the Obama Ground Game is getting out the message, that doesn't seem very likely to have a big impact.
John
October 23, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a friendly FYI:
Typically, the abbreviation used for the Supreme Court is SCOTUS
October 23, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Scalia did have their back. It's just that the majority didn't.
October 23, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you provide a link about the "massive voter suppression" going on in Colorado?
I'm familiar with what's happened in Ohio, the rulings in Indiana, and some of what went on in Nevada, but I've not aware that there's "massive voter suppression" going on in Colorado.
October 23, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
What specifically are you referring to in Colorado?
October 23, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here we go again. Obama is ready for it man. He has been ready for EVERYTHING they have thrown at him starting with the primary. Don't you think he knows what he is doing? What has happened so far with his campaign that makes you think he doesn't have the lawyers lined up and ready for any problem. If you have seen a fuck-up in Obama's campaign call MSM cause it will be big news. If it worries you that much, call up Obama campaign and ask what you can do to help - poll watch, contact lawyers, learn voter registration laws. Do something.
October 23, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was supposed to be posted directly under the fweep from anonymous bosch about voter suppression.
October 23, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like he's just trying to avoid a landslide loss. Or perhaps he's counting on robocalls, which have the advantage (to him) of being much cheaper and a medium that's better suited to the sleaze that's the focus of his campaign.
October 23, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll go with 'all in on robocalls.'
Cheaper. Virtually no restrictions.
He can accuse Obama of drowning puppies and washing his car with fresh baby's blood if he wants to, for cents on the dollar compared to TV and radio.
It's desperation time for McCain and Palin. And deperate times call for sleaze to the max. Robocalls will give him the best sleaze-to-dollar ratio for his money.
October 23, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bingo!
Maybe we can just call it STD. Though I imagine that catching syphilis would be preferable to catching the moral and ethical sickness the McShame campaign has.
October 23, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice work, thanks. And the comment about Obama taking up available time - just a wonderful unintended (or maybe intended?) side-effect of having lots of money.
October 23, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Our only hope is the Slave States."
October 23, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
WEll then there is no hope because:
There are no fucking slave states.
October 23, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I dont know if any of you guys have seen the post that Mike Murphy posted about what his old boss, JM, should now do. In short he wants McCain to drop all ads and take the rest of his money and buy 2-3 30 minute chunks of air time a la BO. The thing is he may not have the money to do even that.
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/10/ready_for_prime_time.html
October 23, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now the HuffPo is reporting that McCain has cut of his former campaign manager Mike Murphy because of his criticism of how the campaign is being run.
Plus the NYT is suppose to release a story on sunday about the infighting going on in the McCain camp.
Its almost over people, its almost over.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/23/mccain-cuts-off-murphy-cr_n_137130.html
October 23, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Times already published a story in the deadtree version about Mike Murphy. And other former McCain aides.
Link: Murphy offers McCain advice. McCain says "Screw you!"
October 23, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Times Sunday magazine story about the infighting is already online (though I haven't read it yet):
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/magazine/26mccain-t.html?pagewanted=all
October 23, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
With friends like these....
Knowing McCain as well as he does, Murphy should have expected this very predictable reaction.
October 23, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
How much would it cost to match Obama's 30 min slots? And even if McCain has enough money, how realistic would it be to arrange with news organizations to get prime time slots at this point?
October 23, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've stopped obsessing about whether or not Obama is going to win. He IS.
I want to see a margin of victory, both in the EC and the popular vote, that is SO massive that the Republicans drive to challenge the results fizzles out......
Buying sparkling cider for the kids, and the best micro-brew I can find for me for election night. We'll huddle around my laptop and celebrate, celebrate, dance to the muuuusic........
October 23, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
There you are! Are you froze? It was 14 in Taos when I got up.
It's warmed all the way up to 36.
October 23, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bombay Sapphire straight up with a twist on election night.
October 23, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Boones Farm on ice.
October 23, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hear, frickin' hear.
October 23, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Makers Mark on the rocks at Old Burdicks, downtown Kalamazoo, where the big O party is going to be here.
October 23, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Knob Creek in a flask as I celebrate in Grant Park ;)
October 23, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm jealous!
October 23, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm jealous!
October 23, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ommegang or 3 Philosophers watching Fox TV try to spin . . .
October 23, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The best bourbon I can get my hands on.
October 23, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Woodford Reserve. Smooth, a tad sweet, good.
Full disclosure: The distillery's within a few minutes of where I grew up. Every time I visit the folks, we always drop by for a 'tasting'.
October 23, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
1992 Château La Garde (Péssac-Léognan) sounds about right.
I hope it's an early blowout, since I only have one bottle.
October 23, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg, I realize and appreciate you are seeking portents everywhere -- keep 'em coming! -- but are most of these fluctuations quite as dramatic as you make them out to be?
October 23, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he's saving money for one last attack volley closer to the election.
He'd be better off buying some prime time programming like Obama. Maybe the Monday the 3rd time slot that Obama also considered. That way McCain could be the last person to talk to some undecided voters.
October 23, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really doubt he would have the money for that. Obama spent $5 million alone on moving him, his staff and the press around in September.
October 23, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know why, but the part about McCain not being able to get on the air because Obama has bought up all the air time just cracks me up.
October 23, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know.
Obama: chess.
McCain: checkers, with one color.
October 23, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!!!!!!!
Checkers with one color = that's priceless that is!
October 23, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Checkers might be too deep. More like tic-tac-toe...and they're still convinced they can win.
October 23, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you got my shout-out for the very understandable explanation about standard errors, and weighting by sample size....
October 23, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Missed it, but thanks anyway.
October 23, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is so funny!
Tic Tac Toe depends on who goes first! So it's a crap shoot! Which is definitely his game! But even then... yes, hoping to win tic tac toe.
We are the campaign of HOPE. They are the campaign of DELUSION.
October 23, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scissor, paper, rock.
October 23, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg?
These numbers are OCTOBER numbers, correct? Not September?
October 23, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has anyone in the McCain camp uttered the phrase "firewall" yet?
October 23, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's hard to build a firewall when the flames have you surrounded...
October 23, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
GOP rats are starting to fight over the lifeboats.
October 23, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT - That birdbrain Larry Johnson over at No Clue has a new post up that chastises Obama for his "contrived Hawaii trip". Says that his grandmother isn't really at that sick and blah, blah, blah, political stunt blah, blah blah. Man, that guy is shameless.
October 23, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
No fucking shit? - I was waiting for the first winger to do that -
Good. Did you watch the vid Josh had up on the front page with Obama explaining why he is going (has gone, I guess) to Hawaii?
Those ugly little bastards are just digging their graves deeper -
October 23, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, the pond scum at freerepublic has been making that whine for the last couple of days.
October 23, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a question for the gang... (TENA especially). Will the scurvy lot of ya be on tpm election central posting as you watch the returns coming in on November 4th?
I kinda want to be "with" this gang when the results come in.
October 23, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would not miss out on some TPM election night. And while not a betting person, I think we're gonna have the results toute suite that night!
October 23, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I've said - I'm in Casa de Nube until the middle of November, so I'm here election night unless something comes up -
October 23, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a dj for a local freestyle/ecstatic dance community in Santa Fe, and I am currently working on a "victory mix"........I'll post it when I'm done.......
October 23, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please don't. Post it, I mean. Until he's actually won.
I'm superstitious.
October 23, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like in the NHL, don't raise the cup until it's yours to raise.
October 23, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, I'll post it election night. I don't know how to actually post the music, but I'll post the list of songs.........
I will not screw with karma.
October 23, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
With these servers? Good luck.
October 23, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama bought up all the time so McCain can't run ads. But now he doesn't need it - so he is just going to run cartoons.
That would be sweet.
I think this is probably more of a white flag. McCain's Bob Dole moment. This bullshit talk of 'Our Internals Say We Are Winning!' Is just that, utter bullshit. Look at the polls out of PA today - you don't end up with 3 different polls showing exactly the same numbers unless the race has been settled. Will it end up being 12 in PA - no way. It'll probably be 5 or 6. But I don't buy for a single second that McCain's internals have him any closer than 8 there. The public polls are just too consistent to allow for massive poll error. Thats just a fact.
So, McCain is now Dole. He is going to lose. He needs to work on his legacy, work on fixing Palin's image, and try like hell not to allow states like Indiana to go blue. Because if that happens, you go from losing this election, to setting the tone for the next four. A victory is just a victory - a trouncing is lasting.
October 23, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cartoons? Nice. I think Road Runner and Wile E. Coyote would be appropriate.
October 23, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT, but Joe Klein has a full Obama interview, which I think was posted some moments ago. Go read it if you have time -- very impressive (though needless to say).
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/10/the_full_obama_interview.html
October 23, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Definite must read.
October 23, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link. Let me share one bit, right off the top, that struck me. Klein points out Obama is known as a rational, deliberative decision maker and asks him what about having to decide fast, on your gut--asks for examples of that. I think Obama's answer about how he dealt with the Wright business is illuminating:
That was a great speech, really remarkable, and for exactly the reason he specifies. First time in decades--maybe ever, including Clinton--that I really felt like a candidate was talking to me like an adult rather than a braindead product of some marketing genius's imagination. And he's doing it in this interview as well. Even when he was my 3rd favorite candidate during the primaries this ability has always impressed the hell out of me.
October 23, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link. Let me share one bit, right off the top, that struck me. Klein points out Obama is known as a rational, deliberative decision maker and asks him what about having to decide fast, on your gut--asks for examples of that. I think Obama's answer about how he dealt with the Wright business is illuminating:
That was a great speech, really remarkable, and for exactly the reason he specifies. First time in decades--maybe ever, including Clinton--that I really felt like a candidate was talking to me like an adult rather than a braindead product of some marketing genius's imagination. And he's doing it in this interview as well. Even when he was my 3rd favorite candidate during the primaries this ability has always impressed the hell out of me.
October 23, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am very confused by McCain strategy. He is reducing spending in CO and PA?? He has to win one or the other in order to get this election, no way to do it without both.
October 23, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, you fell into that trap of assuming McMoron's campaign has a coherent strategy.
October 23, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's only one explanation: this is no longer about winning but is now about avoiding a landslide loss. They're now defending what used to be solid red states that the R's took for granted. Once the swing states have turned blue and the red states become swing states, the permanent Republican majority will become a permanent Republican minority. In short, it's now about trying to salvage something from the wreckage.
October 23, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, you fell into that trap of assuming McMoron's campaign has a coherent strategy.
October 23, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wallace? Where are you? All I've seen in the past few weeks is a single drive-by posting of some kind of bizarre, weak-point rhetorical question and then you're gone.
Why have you abandoned your principles and tucked tail and run away? I don't think anyone here *hates* you or has anything against you. In fact, I've seen quite a few posters commend you for having lucid posts with some thought behind them. Where did that Wallace go?
Why is it the Republicans and their supporters are simply unable to deal with uneasy situations or adversity? They cannot brook any dissent whatsoever as they see that as weakness and lack of message discipline. Democrats are (almost) always ready to admit to faults and flakes AND WORK TO FIX THEM. November 5th, or even January 21 is by no means the end. It's just the beginning and any critical, observant, concerned voices should always be welcome and appreciated.
So Wallace, how about it? Why don't you come on back and try engaging again. I'm sure you'll be welcome if you're civil and back your points up with something more than just "um, because!".
And the same goes for anyone here. Sycophants should not be welcome. Ever. By either party.
October 23, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
fwiw, I saw a few posts by him t'other day touting the AP poll when it came out. But I guess it's pretty discouraging to try and fight it out with us when there's so little ammunition available. Still and all he's one of the better people from the opposite camp who posts here.
October 23, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, it looks like McCain's Pennsylvania strategy worked about as well as Robert E. Lee's. They've both ended up retreating to Virginia.
Unfortunately for McCain, it seems Obama -- unlike Meade in 1863 -- has outflanked him and gotten there first.
October 23, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those of you who remember, the McCain campaign reminds me of the exploits on that old TV show F Troop.
October 23, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is at this point in tic-tac-toe game. McCain being X and Obama of course being O's and it's now McCain's turn.
| X | O
---------
| O | X
---------
| X | O
October 23, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone know how the "equal time" issue with network television plays out with Obama having bought all this time and McCain none? or does it apply only if it is non purchased time? thanks....
October 23, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only applies to Network (non-paid) events or shows.
October 23, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about 1 in 6 voters in CO being purged from the rolls.
McMoron has no strategy. The RNC has had a strategy for at least 8 years.
http://www.gregpalast.com/rolling-stone-its-already-stolen/#more-2118
October 23, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link. Is there a per-state breakdown anywhere?
October 23, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is BS. There was a problem with less than 10,000 new registrations. All but a couple thousand have already been fixed. The remainder will either be allowed on the rolls by their County Clerks or they will have to vote provisional and clear up their registration.
http://coloradoindependent.com/12387/counties-get-creative-on-check-box-flaw-on-voter-registration-applications
October 23, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
thanks for that clarification
October 23, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hokey smoke! Obama 44, McCain 40 in Montana (per front page of TPM).
Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia and Georgia would make it a very nice night.
October 23, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is in sufficient analysis to conclude McCain is receding spending in these states. He may be diverting ad dollars to robocalls.
I like the narrative though...McCain on the run.
October 23, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I haven't yet noticed any fewer ads for McSame here in W.PA, I have noticed there is a bit of a lack of interest in the Caribou Barbie rally happening a couple of miles down the road. As of 9am this morning, they were still announcing that there were tickets left.
LOL!
October 23, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe we need to get some polls out of Utah :)
By the way, Obama isn't the only one who got some gray hairs over this last year. Don't know what I would have done without ya'll on TPM.
October 23, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
They say that imitation is the most sincere form of flattery! So Obama goes to Hawaii to visit his ailing Grandmother and GrandPa McCain goes to Bush states to visit his ailing campaign. That's kind of the same thing...(not so much)
October 24, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink