What?  No more money in the kitty for TV ads in AZ?

Get Cindy in here with her checkbook!

this is third or fourth Arizona Poll with Obama and McShame within the margin of error. I would to see Obama make a play for Arizona.

A week ago or so I read at kos that a reputable local pollster there predicted a much close race on the election day. Posters from Arizona also said Obama's ground game is in full swing there as well. Too few poll results to say anything with confidence, but it would be a soul-killing loss for McScum.

God I would LOVE to see that happen.

McCain 46%, Obama 44%...  The previous ASU poll from a month ago put McCain up 45%-38%.

Now that's tightening I can believe in!

Mom lives in Tucson. She says a lot of Obama Biden yard signs have been popping up in her retirement community south of Tucson (Green Valley). Snow birds are descending, bringing their left leaning ways with them.

Obama's taking 41 states and Arizona is one of em.

Kurt Davis of McCain campaign states: "John McCain will win Arizona. He's won every election he's run here in Arizona since 1982," Davis said.

That is true, but it also was not the John McCain we are seeing now. I suspect he will hold AZ, but not by much. They are just starting to feel the effects of the economy now. My friend in Glendale (Phoenix) said his company has no forthcoming contractual bids, and when he does bid, he will do so at no profit just to keep his employees covered for their health care and retirement accounts. He cares about his workers. BTW, he is voting for Obama.

Tucson is more blue, UA helps with that, employs a lot of people, plus all the students. Obama should win Pima County I believe.

What I don't understand, is: How on Earth can TPM averages be shrinking (Obama at +6.2 today) and Arizona is shading into pink and maybe purple territory? Either the national polls are right in tightening or the state polls are right.

Someone must be wrong.

Maybe everyone is wrong.

I really think Obama should hold a campaign rally in Phoenix, AZ this weekend. I think he would turn out a huge crowd and force McCain to throw money at his own home town. It would be great stuff and a sure full day media grab for Obama.

I read that McLame is now running ads in Georgia.

Georgia.

I also just heard that about half of the expected voters (70% based on '04 and I think it will be higher) in New Mexico have voted already either early or absentee.

Wasn't Arizona hit fairly hard by the mortgage crisis and falling home prices? Plus, there's been a shift in the demographics from retirees predominating to younger families with children.

Since the younger a person is, the more likely they are to be an independent voter, the fact that Arizona, is not a done deal for McCain, isn't as wild a notion as it would have been a decade ago.

I live in Tucson- Pima County is fairly Democratic. There are many Obama/Biden signs and bumper stickers. I have seen one sign and two bumper stickers total (I've been keeping count). On Saturday Obama volunteers canvassed my neighborhood and were verifying that every Democrat possible had voted early (like me) or were planning on voting. Their organization is very good.

A lot of people in AZ don't care for McCain. His anti-earmark stance has meant he brings no money to the state and he has basically been running for president full-time since 2000. I think many Arizonans are ready for something different.

Just sent off my Arizona absentee ballot. Nice to see Arizonans not giving McCain a free pass just because he represents our state.

I went to the Tempe Public Library today to drop off my mail-in ballot. LOTS of people waiting to early vote... dozens in fact. In the middle of a weekday.

It made me very happy. I don't know that these were majority Obama voters (though it's likely, Tempe is a blue city), but it really was thrilling to see so many people interested in participating in the election.

Living in Phoenix, there is nothing I would love to see more that McShame lose Arizona. However...the Arizona SoS is Jan Brewer, a RWPA (right-wing partisan asshat) who would have no problem rigging the AZ results, at least to avoid the embarrassment to the Republican party. She has avoided transparency in elections in AZ at every opportunity.

If Obama wins Arizona, the sight of McCombover struggling to take it on the chin as his beady litle eyes bubble with blood might just make my head explode with pleasure.

You know what would be devastating to Republicans? Not just McCain losing Arizona, but looking at the electoral vote map over in that sort of direction --->, McCain, the GOP standard bearer, and by extension, the GOP itself looks to be able to win only a hand full of states, mostly in the tradtional South. If things happen that way, the Republican Party will become the minor, regional southern party that Andrew Sullivan predicted they were in danger of becoming. I for one would shed many crocodilian tears if that were to happen.

Good morning, everyone!

Quinnipiac polls:

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53, McCain 41
OHIO: Obama 51, McCain 42
FLORIDA: Obama 47, McCain 45

Associated Press/Gfk polls:

Obama holds leads in New Hampshire (+18), Pennsylvania (+12), Nevada (+12), Colorado (+9), Virginia (+7), Ohio (+7). Tied in North Carolina, Florida.

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/

The thing is, people in Arizona have seen McShame up close and personal for 26 years. They know better than most what a petty, narrow-minded vindictive prick he is. They've seen his out-of-control temper. More than a few of them have been subject to his unhinged tirades and vendettas launched at the smallest imagined slight. And while they might be willing to tolerate that in a senator who generally votes the way they want (it's still a fairly conservative state, though growing less so by the day), I bet many are frightened at the prospect of him in the White House.

Aww come on I made this thread last night and got absolutely no recognition. Yea I said it, I want some love from my TPM bretheren.

Good piece by Walter Shapiro on how McSenile came to be where he is now:

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/29/mccain_2000/

I'll tell you, this incessant up/down, jubilation/despair is turning me into a nervous wreck. And, believe me, I'm not alone.

Here in Europe, lands of the cheese-eating surrender monkeys and dreaded socialists, where we take free first class health-care for granted, (oh, the horror, the horror) and where we don't like religion intruding into politics, (pinko, terrorist-appeasers that we are), this election is edge-of-the-seat stuff.

Most Europeans, far from being anti-American, like and admire the US. It's the Bush/Cheney Axis of Imbecility that we hated. The prospect of McSlime and his nut-job bible-slut delivering 4 more years of the same, (assuming they don't turn the planet into a radioactive ash-heap), fills us with horror.

Obama is going to have an absolutely
huge reservoir of good-will to tap over here and, I believe, in the rest of world. Just as the US did after 9/11 until Bush and his gang of crooked incompetents threw it all away.

You know, if an enemy of the US was seeking to destroy the US's power and standing, they couldn't have done a better job than The Decider.

George W. Bush- Agent of SMERSH.

It would be interesting to see a news account of exactly how the Obama campaign has handled Arizona. I'm guessing the reason it is close -- and has been for a few weeks now -- are many.

1) Changing demographics and the double threat to retirees with the stock and housing markets down, as noted above.

2) Overconfidence from McCain and a stealth campaign by Obama (so as not to appear disrespectful of a native son).

3) The real native sons (and daughters), native Americans and Latinos.

4) Lots of Arizona Republicans despise McCain and as long as he is going to lose anyway would be happy to be part of his comeuppance

I've been a regular visitor but with this new poll in AZ I just had to jump in. I've been campaigning for Barack since the primaries. There is a lot of anti-McCain sentiment in AZ.

I've thought for a long time that we have a chance to win here. I figured it was only a matter of time before the latino population would figure out that Obama was their guy.

We closed the gap to 9% during the primaries the disadvantage was that we just didn't have enough time for people here to get familiar with Obama - but despite that we turned out 14,000 in a rally a couple of weeks before Super Tues.

Didn't get to read all the comments, but seems as if the Palin effect has effected Arizona... His numbers started tanking in his home state, almost on cue.

Somewhere Between Joe the Plumber and Sarah the Palin, McCain's own homeies woke up to the charade.