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Another Poll Finds Obama Taking The Lead -- In North Carolina!
Yet another poll is showing Barack Obama ahead in North Carolina, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976.
The new numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.8% margin of error. A week ago, PPP had Obama up 47%-45%, a lead that appears to be increasing. The poll also shows that 60% of voters say the economy is their biggest issue, and this group is going for Obama by a 60%-34% margin.
Three separate pollsters have been giving Obama the lead here: PPP, Rasmussen and Elon University.
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North Carolina. Florida is close. Michigan is close. Colorado is close.
Wow. Could this be a huge victory for Obama (not that I want to jinx it or anything)?
http://thepajamapundit.com/
October 6, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Michigan is over, Obama's lead in Colorado is widening and he's now narrowly leading in both Florida and North Carolina. The tsunami is coming.
October 6, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sweet. Dear God, please let McCain burn himself out in tomorrow's debate.
October 6, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
An early coup de grâce?
I'd rather not. I want to see him suffer through the domestic-issues debate.
October 6, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wouldn't that be a hoot if Obama wins by bigger margin in N.Carolina than Ohio.
I'm suddenly a tar heel state fan.
October 6, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has anyone seen numbers in South Carolina? It looks like Obama's charging south (even GA is closer).
October 6, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
While our impulse is to dream of Obama winning ever state in The Union, I would be much happier if he only won 49--this excludes SC.
You see, SC has an unusually close senate race this year between Lindsey Graham (R) and [fake] Democrat Bob Conley. Conley is not supposed to win this seat, and for good reason. His policies on EVERYTHING are to the right of most Republicans.
Conley has raised something like $27,000 and spent $15,000 this entire election, and yet the last Senate poll of SC had the two candidates just 10 points apart. His purpose was simply supposed to be a place holder for the next time around when Democrats are hoping to field a better (or ever remotely desirable candidate).
If Conley rides Obama's coat tail to the Senate he will be worse than a Republican. He will be a "Democrat" who vocally protests the Obama administration, and then votes with Republicans on every issue.
October 6, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you kidding? Conley's a far-wingnut who's against the war, torture, and warrantless wiretapping. Graham's a far-wingnut who's for all of those things?
Conley would be a huge improvement.
God forbid we add one senator to the handful who give a s*&% about civil liberties, just because he'll otherwise act wingnutty and/or criticize Obama.
October 6, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly what I've been trying to tell people about Bruce Lunsford, the criminal and democratic traitor running against Mitch McConnell here in Kentucky.
No more DINOs! No more Blue Dogs! Death to the DLC!
October 7, 2008 8:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great news! Anybody else catch Steve Lombardo's analysis of the election in general over at Pollster.com?
October 6, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://pollster.com/blogs/steve-lombardo/
October 6, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! No wonder McLiar and his sidekick are going ballistic.
October 6, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Their internal polls in Michigan were worse than the public polls. I'm sure they're rushing to do some polling in NC now.
October 6, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't wait until November 4th!
Who is calling in sick on the 5th?
[raises hand]
October 6, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh definitely! I used to think I'd be up till the wee hours watching close election returns but now I am beginning to think the result may come in earlier than I thought. Yay! Got a big party hopefully to attend to celebrate on Friday, 11/7 (postponed from November 2000 and November 2004!).
October 6, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want to plan an Election Night party for Milwaukee-area TPMers.
I wish we had a private message feature on here.
October 6, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why would I call out, I plan on going to sleep EARLY come the 4th.
October 6, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and Dole is down by 9.
60 is getting closer and closer.
When do the GOP idiots stop listening to Rove? That permanent majority isn't looking so hot. I have this dream where even Fox viewers begin wonder why the hell Rove is on their tee vee set trying to explain anything about politics.
October 6, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought that was a Tom DeLay thing. Please straighten me out if I'm confused.
October 6, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Both. It was a pretty widespread meme around wingnut (esp. Texas wingnut) circles for a while.
I think Norquist or someone might have actually coined it...in one of those secret meetings they have.
October 6, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something did feel a bit strange giving Tom DeLay credit for anything original.
October 6, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know that many people here, myself included, sometimes cringe at how lengthy and devoid of zingers some of Team Obama's statements can be. That being said, this is pretty good. Thoughts?:
"“On a day when the markets are plunging and the credit crisis is putting millions of jobs at risk, the one truly angry candidate in this race kept up his strategy of ‘turning the page’ on the economy by unleashing another frustrated tirade against Barack Obama.
And if John McCain is wondering why he’s lost his credibility, he should look no further than the out-of-context quote he took from a 2007 speech in which Barack Obama warned of the subprime crisis we’re now facing. Since then, John McCain has called for less regulation no fewer than 20 times, proving that he hasn’t learned any lessons from the last banking scandal he was involved in and would give us more of the same failed economic policies as President,” said Obama campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor.""
October 6, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zingers don't win elections, stories do. And Obama has by far the most poignant story right now.
McCain's lost his booklight and seems to be flailing around bumping into the bookshelves.
October 6, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nicely put. Zingers are convenient handles to stories.
October 6, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hugh McColl, founder and former CEO of Bank of America endorsed Obama in the Charlotte Observer today. McColl is a legend and hero in this town so this is huge. He stated that he's endorsing Obama because he's best on the economy and best in a crisis. Big deal.
October 6, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Elon poll in NC was asking which of the two candidates would handle the economy better. Not that this necessarily contradicts the other two recent NC polls, but it's still important to get the fact straight.
FiveThirtyEight.com toke a closer look at the Elon poll when it came out and concluded that the overall preference of voters is virtually tied at 38.8 (McCain) vs. 38.9 (Obama)
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-104.html
October 6, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe the Elon poll was just who was better able to handle the economy, and not who would you vote for. Still good though.
October 6, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was at the Asheville rally yesterday(28000 plus) and the crowd was so in gear and the energy was flowing high. Obama bashed the hell out of McShame on health care and his smear campiagn. NC will turn blue this year and bring along a new democratic Senator Hagen with good old Liddy being shown the door! My wife and I did some canvessing on Saturday morning and from the results I saw NC is breaking hard for Obama.
October 6, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh-oh. I we can't hold on to NC, our dream of 400 electoral votes may be in jeopardy!
October 6, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've got bad news for you. Are you sitting down? It'll be eight EVs short of 400.
McSame will get: ID, UT, WY, ND, SD, NE (minus Omaha), KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, TN, KY, WV for 147 EVs.
Notable in their absence will be AZ and AK. That's the official McSame is Toast betting line for today.
October 6, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
538.com has W.Va. as tilts Obama, though I don't have the exact numbers. He's moved from 30 points down here in Kentucky to just 10 points down. I think McShame is still going to take Kentucky, but it'll probably be by less than 5. W.Va., though - that's nowhere near a given for the repugs.
October 7, 2008 8:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, it's safe:
GLOATgloatGLOATgloatGLOATgloatGLOATgloatGLOATgloat
Obama1st - that's one reason Obama has run a ground campaign - he connects with people in person like nobody has since Kennedy.
I haven't gotten to see him live, but everyone I've talked to who has says the same thing - the man connects with you completely - he generates all this energy and throws it to the crowd and they increase it and give it back to him.
He's winning this in person. When was the last time a candidate won the presidency in the US in person?
October 6, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
You've never been to a rally?! Seriously?
October 6, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
She would probably explode and nothing would be left but a little green globule on the ground... ;)
October 6, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL - no, but if I ever shook hands with Obama, I'd break into sobs I fear.
October 6, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's ok.
October 6, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most selfless thing I've ever done in my life was at Obama's rally in Louisville May 12. I was pushing my way to the front of the handshake line, and the only person in my way was a black man with his three-year-old daughter on his shoulders.
I stepped back.
Killed me to do it, but if anything will prevent me from spending my next life as a cockroach, that will.
October 7, 2008 8:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Alas, no.
October 6, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in NY, we get no love :-(
October 6, 2008 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Having seen Obama live and up close, I can vouch that he indeed does connect with his audience like few can. Sort of like Bill Clinton did when running in 1992 but more so. I am so glad intellect is winning big.
October 6, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
TENA: The thing I noticed was that the energy was so high..people really engaged, big time talks of early voting, volunteers FIRED UP and Ready to GO!Many people shed tears of hope and joy. I was standing beside a doctor and his wife and he is all for Barack's health care plan and feels this is an election victory issue for Obama. Barack launched into his line of "don't be hoodlinked..no bambuloozin..don't go for his lies"
The crowd was crazy at that point! At the same his youngest daughter is dancing around back stage!
it's comng...we are going to win on Nov. 5th...
October 6, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama1st - I got a piece of that standing in line to caucus for the man and he was nowhere near. The excitement was unreal - just being with other Obama supporters - it was incredible.
Y'all are lucky - I wish I could see a rally for real.
October 6, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
As far as I can tell, the "spam blogs" have stopped after the one time today. Not sure if tpm heard our plea (I did sent an email with a link to the blog), or the individual was "shamed" into stopping, or is it just a fluke?
Any ideas?
October 6, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's 50-50 - either he got scared off by your post, or Josh pulled the plug.
I have no idea which. Sorry.
October 6, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
In any case I take it that it's rare to have only one clogged thread.
We'll see.
These days are just too important to deal with gummed up threads.
October 6, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where I will be going, in my mind, on Nov. 4...
October 6, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
is here
October 6, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope y'all know what's happening here - it's fucking unbelievable but the Southern Strategy is breaking down.
That was my hope.
I really thought this could happen -
October 6, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
People are seeing in Palin what the GOP thinks of as the idyllic everywomen. McCain thinks most people are as dumb as Palin, and he's about to get a good smackin' for it.
October 6, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish that smack would extend to all the doctrinaire and smart ass liberals who continually make the REpugs' argument for them that Americans are stupid.
Jesus Christ - that's the Repugs line and yet 3 out of every 5 liberals on comments boards say the same fucking thing.
And will not acknowledge the self-contradiction.
October 6, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
New CNN Poll has obama up 53 - 45
October 6, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy shit. Only 2% undecided?
October 6, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's about time - the race is hardening.
McLame's cement fuckme pumps are hardening around his feet.
October 6, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
New CNN Poll
Obama 53 McCain 45
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/06/cnn-poll-obama-advantage-grows/
October 6, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I know what it is - sourtherns just can't stand Great White Northerners with lame accents!
Whodathunk???
October 6, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh.
I woulda.
Besides that, a woman really has to be careful about getting nasty publicly - especially in the south.
manners still count, more with women, too.
October 6, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I betcha that's what it is! I betcha!
October 6, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain should be out of funds in two weeks!
October 6, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
After that he can just hold his breath - till the election or whatever consequence.
October 6, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
And now the FEC is demanding an explanation from his campaign about irregular contributions.
October 6, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it? I know the RNC filed complaint against Obama today, but is the FEC demanding an explanation from McCain too now?
October 6, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay got it, I just now saw it's posted at TPM front page. The title is hilarious -- "FEC Questions McCain Donations; RNC Questions Obama's"
A sleeping dog?
October 6, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
For real?
Damn life is sweet.
October 6, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thumbs up on the CNN poll! Third one out today (along w/Gallup and Rasmussen) that shows an 8-point Obama lead.
October 6, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rallies are a lot of fun! When I met Obama at a booksigning at a Chicago area bookstore back in late 2005, his popularity was growing even then and there was a line of 1,500 people waiting to meet him. Now that felt like a rally!
October 6, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if McCain's people are trying to keep these polling numbers away from him before the debate.
October 6, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has Steve ConeHead Schmidt given him back his cellphone yet?
October 6, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain did a signing back in early 2006 in downtown Chicago that attracted.........about 40 people. I was one of them, but that was the John McCain I grew to love and not the erratic asshole he's become to win.
October 6, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's interesting that CNN's polls always have fewer undecideds than others. They must push people more into deciding. And it doesn't look like the people being pushed are breaking one way or the other.
October 6, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the CNN poll
October 6, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good -- given the way people are seeing her, the more Caribou Barbie is ranting and rambling, the better. She is killing her own political future along with the fuckhead.
October 6, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ugh, sorry. I meant to reply to acamus's post re Palin.
October 6, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
NBC is teasing a poll they will be releasing at 6:30
October 6, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know so many young people from the northeast who have moved down to NC because the cost of living in the North is too high. This demographic is less likely to have a landline and to have voted in the last election, plus they lean towards Obama, so the polls in NC might not be telling the whole story.
Also, I lived in the South for a while, and the way that Palin was winking in the debate would be seen as really trashy and the way that McCain behaved, not looking at Obama, would be considered really bad form for a gentleman who should be gracious to his opponent. I can't help thinking that Obama and Biden acted more like Southern Gentlemen, both being gracious and respectful under fire, in contrast to their Republican opponents. I would really not be surprised if this interpersonal behavior was not a tipping point in NC and Virginia.
October 6, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign. Look, in the south we know trailer trash when we see it.
LOL
And her voice drives me crazy, too!
October 6, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Double-ditto. Little old white Southern Ladies are appalled at both Palin and McCain for - gasp! - bad manners.
Do NOT fuck around with little old ladies.
October 7, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm annoyed by her accent.
But mostly because I won't be able to watch Fargo without thinking about sarah "you betcha" palin anymore.
October 6, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
And McWar is still going to Iowa this week...It must his Iowa internals must be really good.
October 6, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa, get a gander at those new Rasmussen swing-state polls! Up 7 in Florida, 6 in Colorado, and taking the lead in friggin' Missouri by 3!
October 6, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
375 folks, 375. Let's work our hardest to turn that map totally blue.
October 6, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink