AFL-CIO's Internal Polling Shows Dramatic Gains For Obama Among Rust Belt Union Members
In another sign of key movement in his direction, Barack Obama has dramatically improved his standing with three key constituencies in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to internal polling conducted by the AFL-CIO that an official shares with us.
AFL spokesperson Steve Smith says the union federation will release polling numbers later this morning that show jumps in those three states among gun owners, veterans, and retirees. Here's an advance look:
Among union gun owners, it's now 58-30 Obama, up from 48-41 in early September, a 21 point jump.Among veterans we're at 58-32, up from 49-41 in early September, an 18 point jump.
And among retirees, we're now at 59-31, up from 52-37, a 14 point improvement, nearly double the margin.
Smith adds that AFL polling also shows big gains for union members overall in those three states:
In Ohio, Obama now has a 29-point advantage (61%-32%) over McCain among union members, an improvement of 16 points since August.In Pennsylvania, Obama's support has risen 22 points to a 63%-27% advantage.
In Michigan, Obama now holds a commanding 68%-23% lead among union members, up 26 points.
If these numbers bear out, this is a pretty big deal, because union voters comprise a big chunk of the vote in Rust Belt states. Obama's apparent gains underscore yet again the big role union organizing in the swing states played in filling the vacuum left by the relative lack of outside group activity on the left this year.
Card check! Card check! Card check! If this is not a 100-days piece of legislation, shame on Obama and all the dems in Congress.
All by itself it's more than worthy and long-overdue. But it's now clear that union voter education and GOTV efforts will make the difference for democrats this year.
Unions have earned - not the billion-dollar handouts corporations demand and get from repugs - but the simple justice and equal access repugs and their corporate masters have denied workers for decades.
October 29, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
October 29, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Damn straight. The unions have more than done their job, now it's time for the Democrats to do theirs."
...and take away the secret ballot rights of workers! Day 2: Second Amendment and free speech...Dems are on a roll!
October 29, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
A Vote suppressor worried about union voters.
October 29, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
SFC, your concern for all things constitutional duly noted.
October 29, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bingo! Could not agree more. EFCA should absolutely be part of the first 100 days agenda. And not as a quid pro quo for labor, though it would be well-earned, but as a matter of justice and fairness, and as a central part of the Obama administration's strategy to raise the living standards of working families.
October 29, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
This explains then why the mcShame folks have been doing these ads and robo-calls in rust belt states related to second amendment rights and gun ownership, etc.
If the union folks are fired up for Barack. And the mcShame folks are angry, resentful, and depressed... and stay home in droves.... how sweet it would be.
October 29, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Look, we've crossed the threshold - we're less than a week away.
I was lying in bed before I got up and I was hit with a huge wave of CALM.
We've won. I know it.
October 29, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please don't spike the ball on the five-yard-line. Early celebrations are a jinx.
Besides, the world always looks great when you wake up in Taos.
October 29, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Second. Both the ball-spiking sentiment, and the Taos sentiment.
I woke up to find that it was snowing and raining here. I hate noreasters.
October 29, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not spiking the ball.
You want me to take my calm and confidence and go away so y'all can hand wring and worry?
October 29, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
yep -- the attacks aren't working.
October 29, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nothing is working for McLame.
October 29, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
You guys obviously haven't heard that Obama wants to quote "spread the wealth around," yeah, his own words...
October 29, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good!
October 29, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
...except for the triggers on shotguns he and others in his campaign have pointed at each other and their collective feet. In a sense people are right that it ain't over. There is more blood-letting to come.
October 29, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Big smile! :)
October 29, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is indeed quite a turnaround, given that just a couple of weeks ago we were being told by union officials that the contest was very "fluid" due to racial issues. Those union workers got out there and obviously did some good.
October 29, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's quite a turnaround alright - it's beyond the point of no return for McLame.
October 29, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Go go gadget union workers.
October 29, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I was there. I am still anxious. But each day brings its set of good news.
I am trying to make up my mind on which channel I should watch election night
MSNBC: I can not stand Gregory. He is just a bad republican puppet.
CNN: They refused to show the Obama commercial.
ABC: Not a chance.
Any ideas?
October 29, 2008 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
No - I'll be here, but other than that - I have no idea what channel I'll be on cause I don't like to yammered at by anyone.
MSNBC is probably the least obnoxious. IMO.
October 29, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
C-Span. I mostly watch C-Span throughout this cycle.
October 29, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right - me too and it is the best choice.
October 29, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's how I watched all of the debates, but will CSPAN be running it?
Nope--just checked and they've got the 1787 Constitutional Convention scheduled. I kid you not!
http://inside.c-spanarchives.org:8080/cspan/schedule.csp
October 29, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Argh. Then I'll go with PBS...
October 29, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
The PBS station here doesn't have any election coverage scheduled until 10 p.m. (that's EST).
October 29, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
The 1787 Constitutional Convention?
Please don't spoil the ending for me. :P
October 29, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Try the Cooking Channel. I don't know if they'll be covering the returns but that Giada De Laurentis is cute as a bug.
October 29, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are one of the funniest people I've ever encountered.
You are witty as hell!
October 29, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hahahahaha (my colleagues around me must be thinking I'm gone nuts!).
October 29, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
My husband loves her--calls her show his Food Porn fix.
Plus, her mac and cheese recipe is a heart-stopper (calls for something like a quart of heavy cream) but is the best ever!
October 29, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Watch PBS. They're not as annoying as any of the cable or broadcast outlets.
October 29, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Our TV died on Friday....
October 29, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
So Obama is running around doing interviews and doing that big 30 min ad buy. His real goal is to eat up the next 3 days. By taking the attention he is preventing the media from talking about McCain's smears all day. Then we have the low press weekend and we turn into Monday and Tuesday which will mainly be talking about the election itself rather then the smears. If they run the country 1/10th as well as they ran this campaign then we are going to be in pretty good shape.
October 29, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the campaign is going to be on cable this weekend all over the place - Obama is going to be on TDS.
Michelle was on with Leno - and boy what an asset she is - goddamn. She's amazing.
I think the idea to to keep the focus on the Obama-Biden campaign -
October 29, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well its something they can do that McCain can not. Having Palin or Cindy on TV or McCain for that matter is not a plus for their campaign.
October 29, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Opinions have hardened. People aren't looking for a candidate any more, they are telling their friends who they will/did vote for. They are planning what to wear at the Obama victory parties. Looking forward to seeing the historic event. Wondering if the Palin freak show really could be repeated in 2012, and shaking their heads, still finding it tough to believe it happened the first time. Wondering about Obama's cabinet.
October 29, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you. Geo and Tena.
Today is another good day for senator Obama. I can't wait to see the commercial tonight.
Did you notice that mcWar has now to advertise in Georgia, Montana, West Virginia.
October 29, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I read last night that they have ads on the air in Georgia.
I read that and I knew - McLame is so fucked - he's barely ahead in his home state and I wouldn't' be one bit surprised to see him lose it.
If we wins in Az it's going to be a very small win.
October 29, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
I won't take credit for this because I read it somewhere else- Many white voters realize they can't afford (literally) to be racist in this election.
Obama is benefitting from his calm and controlled reaction to the financial crisis, and many racists realize they would rather have a black guy who can handle a crisis than a white guy who freaks out.
October 29, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Praise to Richard Trumka, Secretary-Treasurer of the AFL-CIO, for his outreach to union workers on behalf of Obama and his words of wisdom regarding race.
October 29, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
You said it.
He talked about race in an adult way. Imagine that.
October 29, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
That speech really ought to be more widely seen and heard - it was really something. One of the most honest addresses I've ever heard about race in this country.
October 29, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Big score for reason, and judgment.
I've never understood how anyone whose livelihood is made possible by progressive labor law could even think of voting for a Republican. And, *everyone* who must work for a living has benefited mightily from these laws, not just union workers.
Why would chickens vote to elect a wolf as hen house guard?
October 29, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because they're republican chickens?
Somewhere in there there's got to be a bad knock-knock joke.
October 29, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
lol... I see your feeling pretty good this morning. ;)
October 29, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, yup! :-)
October 29, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
The trade union movement is the main underpinning of the middle and working classes,,, without it, as we have seen the last few decades, it's a Porache or pickup kinda world,,, and that is dangerous.
Part of the 100 day agenda should be repeal of all impediments to union organizing and expressions of workers rights and well being. As bad as it is, Wallyworld is the least of the baddies.
Too little space to tell you all the story of my late mother pouring a bucket of boiling clorox and grease water on the heads of the company goons who came to the house to 're-educate' by father, who was a United Steelworkers organizer at Republic Steel.
October 29, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude = can't do that - that's a state matter. States determine that.
October 29, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is it not a civil rights issue? Or could it not be recast as one?
October 29, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Remember all the hand wringing and pundit pronouncements that Obama would have problems gaining Caucasian "working class" voters? Likewise with Catholic and Jewish voters, amongst whom Obama now enjoys substantial leads?
October 29, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
And let's not forget his problems with Latino voters....
Here's hoping that Obama develops similar "problems" with white Evangelical voters.
Hey, a girl can dream, can't she?
October 29, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
That isn't that far fetched.
The religious right split before this campaign even started. About half the evangelicals peeled off from the Repugs on two issues: the environment and the war.
October 29, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes and as soon as the dust settles after the election, I predict reams of paper will be covered with pundit "wisdom" about this election and what happened and who voted for whom and why the pundits think it did.
October 29, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
The elderly? Why would they care about their children and grandchildren?
October 29, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Finally!
McCain has broken the 40% barrier and is in the low 30% to high 20% bracket. That's what I've been waiting to see! Now if the national numbers start going south for him, I'll be tickled pink!
October 29, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
NEWSFLASH- the tickets to the Obama rally on election night are GONE!
I signed up for one yesterday when I received the email. My wife tried this morning and found out there are none left.
This is shocking. And pretty cool for me, because I get to go!
October 29, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
My fiance and I got them too!
October 29, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Crap. Snooze I lose, I guess. I just saw the email on that. Where are you guys? I'm down in Springfield.
October 29, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm actually in Milwaukee, so there is some question if I'll even be allowed to attend. I've been reading it's only for IL residents. WTF?
October 29, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah the email starts out saying "Illinois supporters are invited to attend...", but there isn't anything about it in the prohibition section below. I would suggest asking them before you drive all the way down though. I bet you can get in.
October 29, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm driving down anyway (I'm meeting up with friends to watch the returns).
If I can't get into Grant Park and have to settle for celebrating in the streets outside the rally, so be it.
October 29, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome job, unions. This is terrific news.
October 29, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why is Obama going to Iowa?
October 29, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because he's Obama and he's going to hit every state he can between now and Tuesday.
That's my guess, anyway.
October 29, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
OK, to both Tena and PH.
I'm so accustomed to Democratic candidates careening here and there because of nasty poll numbers that I'm finding it hard to wrap my mind around the fact that Obama has a strategy and has stuck to it from the beginning.
October 29, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think to close the loop on all of the supposed battleground states. He was in CO, NV, NM, IN, OH, PA, VA, NC, MO and FL. The only supposed battleground states he has missed are WI and IA.
Also, IA really is where it all started and I think he wants to thank/rally the troops one more time. He wants to secure his states...
October 29, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I saw an anti Obama sign today on the side of the road. It quoted Jeremiah Wrights God damn America sentence. If it is still there tonight I'm going to go sign hunting for more tonight on my bicycle with a gold club.
October 29, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
golf club even.
October 29, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Mike, is that Arlington VA? My wife had a place near Lee Hwy and George Mason. We would grab the Ballston Orange line into the District.
If it's Arlington, TX, why not rent a 4WD and knock out those signs, Texas-style?
October 29, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
haha. Arlington, VA.
I've lived in Texas and have seen how people 4wd right off the highway in traffic. That doesn't fly too well here.
The sign was on North Quaker lane right before you turn onto 395 North if anyone wants to give it a whack before I get home.
Hey, ummm...can I get arrested for whacking this sign with a golf club? thnx
October 29, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I think destruction of private property is still a crime. Nonetheless, if I still lived down there, I'd take my gold golf club and whack the heck out of it and all of its brethren.
October 29, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Does anybody know where to get Rasmussens individual day numbers (not the rolling 3 day)? I'm curious about Sunday's individual numbers.
October 29, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you have to be a subscriber (which, stunningly enough, involves you giving Rasmussen some cash).
October 29, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can't get the individual day numbers even if you are a subscriber (as I am). Just an early look and the internals, which are rolling averages as well.
Some things to note about Rasmussen's internals today.
*Obama lost some Dem support to McCain.
*Men are starting to shift to McCain. He now leads by 5 with that demo, 51-46. For days, it was virtually tied.
*Obama's "very unfavorables" have ticked up just a tiny bit. His very unfaves are still high and haven't really changed.
*He leads 46-43 in the "certain to vote for" category. Just a few days ago he had a 47-40 or 48-40 lead.
*He still leads women overall by 11, 54-43.
*He's trailing McCain among white women, 50-48. Two days ago, McCain was ahead by five, 51-46. Yesterday, McCain was ahead by 1, 49-48. Three days ago they were tied at 48.
*He leads indies by 5, 50-45. But I think that lead is being offset and maybe even overtaken a bit but his loss of Dem support. Again, it's only a few points (McCain went from 10 to 13 over the course of a few days among Dems, while Obama dropped from 88 to 85) but there are a lot more Dems than indies.
He's still at 50% and the undecideds are shrinking. I'm OK with a +3 lead but I'd much rather have it be 51-48 than 50-47.
Reluctant conservatives finally coming home, older undecideds sticking with the devil they know. Throw some racism in there and you've got a tightening race. It was going to happen and it was a certainty that undecideds were going to break more for McCain than Obama. But Obama just isn't dipping below that 50% in many national and key state polls. In 2000 and 2004, none of the candidates was registering 50% in any national poll in the days leading up to the election. In fact, most of them didn't hit the 50% at all during the entire campaign season.
October 29, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Thanks for the info.
Seems pretty variable. Today he's down by 2, yesterday down by 1, two days ago down by 5 and three days ago tied.
October 29, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Save yourself some money and pull those numbers out yer ass. They are bound to be just as good as Raspberry's. Har Har har.
October 29, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
41 states. 404 EVs. It's gonna happen.
October 29, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am watching a McCain rally live in FLA. Is it me or has JM aged a bit? He is really looking old.
October 29, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think he has been looking ancient and terrible. He's visibly aged since the first of the year.
October 29, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
For fun, look at Bush in 2000 and today. He looks terrible and he took more vacation days than anyone.
Can you imagine McCain after 4 (or even 8) years as President? He'd turn into the Crypt Keeper.
October 29, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Turn into?
October 29, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Touche.
October 29, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or start looking like James Carville. Is he on one of those extreme calorie-reduction diets or something????
October 29, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Carville has been holding onto the Ring a bit too long.
October 29, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Big grin.
October 29, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
He'd never make it, HyperRevue and most people get that and what that would mean - Sarah Palin as president and CIC.
He'd never make it through 4 years. He'd be 76 by the time it was over and he's aging very quickly at this point.
That's what happens - it's not so much gradual as it is a kind of series of steep descents when you finally are past a certain point - people (and animals, too - I've watched two cats do this as well as my parents) age in chunks and McLame is going down hill fast, which is what happens.
October 29, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
On the other hand, Sarah looks positively spunky! My yahoo page greeted me this morning with a really keen headline: Palin Gearing Up for Presidential Bid in 2012?
That's just Super!
October 29, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
You betcha! Yup, yup, and wink!
October 29, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
CT Voter, every time you do that my knees buckle. Garsh!
October 29, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually union/worker empowerment is a Federal civil rights issue,,,,, just as FDR. One of the first things to repeal is Taft Hartley, and with it will fall the anti worker state so called right to work laws.
Taft Hartley can be deftly handled by Executive Order,,,, either as a suspension for time, or permanently. Workers of the World unite,,,, you have nothing to lose but Republican/nativist tyranny.
October 29, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'll wait until the weekend state polling to be convinced that there is no lag between national and state polls. There's no question we're seeing the the gap close nationally (apparently Gallup will show McCain +2 in their traditional LV model today )but maybe it is all coming from deep red states.
October 29, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
How do you know that about Gallup?
October 29, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! Blessings on the Union. What a miraculous job of campaigning you have done. Thank You So Much!!!
October 29, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink