AFL-CIO Mail Blitz Hammers McCain As "A Disaster For Retirees"
The AFL-CIO keeps up its intense and very targeted economic assault in the swing states, dropping half a million copies of this mailer hitting John McCain on a host of issues important to retirees, a key swing constituency.
Click on the images to enlarge:
The AFL official who sends over the mailer says this mail blitz, combined with an intense door-to-door effort, represents the final push in the union's efforts to target three constituencies: Gun owners, vets and, now, retirees. The above mail is going only to retirees, who represent a key umber of undecideds in the battlegrounds.
One other interesting note: The AFL is dropping this piece, and is now sinking additional resources, into Indiana and North Carolina, in addition to the core swing states, suggesting that the big unions, too, are seeking to broaden the map in the race's final stretch.
What about the 'reversed' Bradley effect?
It was Bill Maher who I heard it from the first time. And it might have an impact bigger than the Bradley effect itself. This suggests some people, in the privacy of the voting booth, just won't vote for an African-American even if they said so before in a poll just to avoid looking racist. The 'reversed' Bradley effect suggests that many of those people, also making their final choice in the privacy of the voting booth, will just say: "I don't like voting for an African-American... but, you know, the economy is hurting so bad, I care about my job and the future of my kids so much... I really hope nobody is watching out there..." And you vote for Obama, just because you fear another four years just like the previous eight. You bet this will happen. And we'll probably be surprised by it on Election day.
October 20, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's what I think: I think plenty of people might tell their friends and neighbors something that they think makes them look better - but not a pollster. They don't take names and I don't think anyone cares that much about a pollster who doesn't know who they are.
Inasmuch as the whole thing is speculation to start with, why bother to make something up to layer over what someone has told a pollster? It's not capable of being measured - just go with what they say - nobody can ready their minds. It's stupid to try to invent something when nobody knows and it's just made up.
October 20, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
It may be stupid but that's clearly never stopped anyone before.
I think the analysis that CNN did last week shows the uselessness you are talking about: Obama actually nets _maybe_ 2% factoring in all those who will vote strictly for their own race and those who will vote strictly against the other guy's race (statistically insignificant difference. Eg: not that many Hispanics hate blacks enough to vote McCain simply on race alone).
That 2% though is only really a gain among folks who self-identify as concerned about the candidate's race. Among LV's as a whole I doubt there's any kind of statistically significant difference.
The only thing that could change is if the minority vote explodes, which could happen. In that case it's clear the advantage goes solely to Obama since he's polling in the high 90's among black voters.
October 20, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the thing you and the theorists who came up with this thing work it with numbers - that's the only thing you have to go on with the so -called Bradley Effect - it's all numbers.
Numbers and people are way different things. I look at people. I do not believe there has ever been any such thing as the Bradley Effect. If there was, and it's not proven, then it was only a template for that one election.
It's theoretical - it can only be theoretical. Nobody asked these people if that's what they did - y'all looked at numbers.
I think numbers are great for manipulating reality. I don't believe this theory.
October 20, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
But manipulating reality is much more fun than simply observing it ;-)
October 20, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well true dat! LOL! Hell careers are built on that idea. LOLOLOL!
October 20, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know, no one is talking about the ARROGANCE of the man himself, Bradley that is.
We are talking the 1980s and he goes on TV and says he is NOT WORRIED that he would lose or that no one would vote against him for his skin color.
He showed no humility and maybe some felt he took their VOTES FOR GRANTED and did not go vote or changed their votes. Afterall, he was supposed to win comfortably.
October 20, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
See? There are an infinite number of possibilities that describe what happened.
There is no One explanation - because nobody asked the people involved. You can't look at numbers and extrapolate attitudes. Dammit!
October 20, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Judy Miller has gone to Fox.
Why is that not a surprise? Goddamn - Cheney's Bitch - neo-con all the way and she lied and she lied and she lied.
October 20, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
The choice is between disasterous McCain proposals that never pass in Congress or disasterous Obama proposals that do.
October 20, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
*Troll Jizz*
October 20, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, your last best hope is "Vote for Gridlock!"
Good luck.
October 20, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
How can anyone look at her career trajectory and think going from a major newspaper to Fox is a step up?
God Judy, you are pathetic, you stupid neo-con.
October 20, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno... Maybe she was about to get fired (again) and Fox is her NeoCon welfare sugar daddy.
October 20, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
She, more than any other reporter who aided and abetted the Bush admin, look silly and pointless now. She has to, I mean, HAS to, wake up some mornings and chew her own arm off to get out of bed with the likes of Fox, etc.
I hope there are no more acts in her pathetic little play.
Same goes for Fred Hiatt. (I just love dumping on him, and hate to miss an opportunity!)
October 20, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Halperin at Time's The Page reported that McCain had $47 million on hand at the start of October. If true, that's really bad.
October 20, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, flufferwink,
THIS
October 20, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
IS
October 20, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
GREAT
October 20, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
October 20, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
FOR
October 20, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain!
October 20, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe that the robo call associated with this campaign can be heard here:
http://thinkdodone.typepad.com/ccd/2008/10/pro---obama-robo-calls-in-ohio-john-mccain-would-be-a-disaster-audio.html
Regards,
Shaun Dakin
CEO
StopPoliticalCalls.org
October 20, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. The CEO? Damn.
October 20, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I really think there are some voters who might say something different to a pollster than what they actually believe. But by the way the most important is maybe not those who say something, but those who just say "I don't know who I'm voting for". At the end, though, this people might end up making the best decision for themselves, and I think that's what the 'reversed' Bradley effect will look like, particularly in states such as North Carolina, North Dakota, rural Ohio or West Virginia.
October 20, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think race will be a big issue though I do think it will has some effect. You only have to read the blogs to see that racism and bigotry are still alive and well in the US. I think most educated voters will look at all the issues and decide who is best equipped to resolve them. McCain has shown that his obsession with becoming president has taken precedence over his concern for the US. He wavers back and forth but what is of utmost importance is his selection of a totally unqualified person to be his VP.
Obama displays intelligence, logic, calmness, an awareness of the issues, and most importantly the quality of knowing that he is not omnipotent and thus relies on the expert advice from those whose experience have placed them in high regard. Colin Powell is an excellent example as is General Mark Clark and non other than Warren Buffet.
October 20, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink