A Night At The Congressional Races
Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:
Coleman Rebrands Himself As The "Hope" Candidate
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who dramatically announced that he was canceling his negative ads when poll data showed him falling behind Al Franken, is aggressively rebranding himself with some familiar language. The new example: Coleman kicked off a bus tour this morning with the title "The Hope Express." It should be said: Coleman has quite a bit of audacity.
GOP Keeps Up The Attacks Against Franken
Norm Coleman's declaration that he didn't want to run negative ads doesn't seem to have bothered the NRSC, who are making up the difference for him. Here's their new attack ad against Al Franken:
"Al Franken: He'd make things worse," the announcer says. This slogan has come up in multiple ads from the GOP. It's not clear just how effective it could be for an incumbent party to admit that things are bad, and then argue that the other guys shouldn't get elected because they would make it worse.
Cash-Strapped GOP Shifting Ads Away From Challengers, Helping Incumbents
The under-funded NRCC has been forced to reshuffle its ad spending away from non-incumbent candidates -- whether they're running for GOP-held open seats or as challengers in Dem-held seats -- and refocus money on helping incumbents. Money has now been allocated to help once-safe incumbents like John Shadegg (AZ), Lee Terry (NE) and Dan Lungren (CA).
Poll: Dem Congressman Trailing GOP Challenger
A new Research 2000 poll shows Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) trailing Republican challenger Lou Barletta by a 43%-39% margin. Kanjorski's district leans Democratic -- and Barack Obama is running narrowly ahead here, too -- but he's generally seen as a lackluster campaigner who could end up being outpaced by Barletta's populist campaign against illegal immigration.
GOP Smells Blood In Mahoney Scandal
NRCC Chairman Tom Cole told the Palm Beach Post that Rep. Tim Mahoney's (D-FL) sex scandal serious increases the GOP's chances of defeating the Congressman. "On a scale of one to 10, this is a 12," said Cole. Meanwhile, CQ has changed its rating on the race from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Republican."
McConnell Ad: Lunsford's Clinic Killed A Veteran
Wow. Check out this new ad from Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), keeping up on his campaign's theme of saying that Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford's clinics gave poor care to veterans:
"I believe that the clinic helped kill my husband," says a widow in the ad. Take this as a sign that McConnell thinks he's in serious danger, and feels the need to pile on the attacks against Lunsford.
GOP Ad Accuses Dem Candidate Of Getting Corrupt Government Contracts
The new NRCC ad in the heated Colorado House race echoes allegations made by Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) against Dem candidate Betsy Markey, accusing her of using her position as a Senate aide to steer government contracts to a family business:
The Markey campaign has repeatedly pointed out that Musgrave hasn't offered evidence for her charges, while the Musgrave campaign has said it's up to Markey to prove that she hasn't violated the public trust.
Dem Candidate's Ad: Kansans Are Getting "Hosed" On
Senate candidate Jim Slattery (D-KS) isn't given much of a chance in his race, but he's sure come up with a great ad. The ad shows angry Kansans being "hosed" on by a giant Wall St. executive holding a gas pump, using a very interesting camera angle to depict what's going on:
"As Kansans get angrier, rich executives just get richer," the announcer says. "While they're getting bailouts or gushing record profits, the rest of us are just getting hosed."















Norm Coleman is the Hope candidate: I Hope he doesn't get re-elected.
October 14, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Andrew Sullivan is saying that he was told that a NYT/CBS poll that will come out tomorrow shows BO with a 14pt national lead (BO 53-JM 39)
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/obama-mccain-53.html
October 14, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
NBC just reported that 14 point poll.
October 14, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's true:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/14/opinion/polls/main4522273.shtml?tag=topStory;topStoryHeadline
October 14, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes!
One more faltering debate performance by McCain (or a relentless attack at the debate) and the GOP can fold the tent.
Please, Senator McCain - please bring up Bill Ayers tomorrow night. Please, oh please...
October 14, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is great news for John McCain. (tm Atrios)
:)
Setting that aside, Nate at the 538 throws a little cold water on it:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/cbsnyt-poll-preempt.html
CBS has been trending going +3 towards the Dems. There was that nutty outliner last time that had a lot of us scratching out heads:
CBS/NYT
10/01: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%
10/06: Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 45%
10/14: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 39%
This is much more in line with 10/01 and another two weeks of McCain melting.
John
October 14, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Al Franken: He'd make things worse."
So a real campaign has turned into an SNL skit.
October 14, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, just like a real VP candidate has turned into a series of SNL skits.
"Republicans: decades of experience trashing the border between reality and delusion."
October 14, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The under-funded NRCC has been forced to reshuffle its ad spending away from non-incumbent candidates -- whether they're running for GOP-held open seats or as challengers in Dem-held seats -- and refocus money on helping incumbents. Money has now been allocated to help once-safe incumbents like John Shadegg (AZ), Lee Terry (NE) and Dan Lungren (CA).
This is great. The GOP is almost all on the defense at this point, with few areas to attack to gain seats.
If we can get rid of Lungren here in CAL (he's quite the wingnut) and Shadegg in AZ, that would be fantastic.
Shadegg was one of the Rep's to announce his retirement, but the GOP dragged him back into the race out of desperation.
That money is needed for Lungren is amazing. CQ has that seat still listed as *safe*:
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=profile-000000000599
That's a strong Bush district. If he's in need of money, the GOP is in deep shit all over the map.
John
October 14, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The Hope Express"!?
This sort of mediocrity always brings me back to that moment in my youth--it came late, in college, I think--when I realized that the world was filled with inept, incompetent, unmotivated grown-ups.
October 14, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
That NRSC ad is going to totally undercut Coleman's attempt at rebranding himself.
October 14, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
More concern for Coleman, or as I prefer to call it, hope for Franken, since I'm trying to help Franken rather than stop Coleman: voter registrations are up in Minnesota just like elsewhere. We don't have party registration, but the new ones are coming from Democratic parts of the state. http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/30924344.html
October 15, 2008 1:38 AM | Reply | Permalink