With early voting now coming to an end, a new CBS poll finds that Barack Obama has already banked a massive lead going into Election Day, which John McCain will have a tough job overcoming.

The numbers: Among the subset of early voters, Obama has built up a lead of 57%-38%. Among all likely voters, including both the early vote and those people who haven't gone yet, it's 54%-41%.

With the common estimate being that roughly one third of all ballots cast this year will be early votes, this means McCain would have to win the the remaining votes on Election Day by a margin of nearly ten points just to eke out a narrow win in the overall popular vote.

It's possible for McCain to do this -- and the internals show that the early voters are disproportionately self-identified Democrats -- but it's definitely a tough job.

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

DSCC Ad: Coleman Refuses To Answer Questions About Lawsuit Allegations
The DSCC ad is closing out the Minnesota Senate race with this new TV ad calling GOP Sen. Norm Coleman flagrantly corrupt, focusing on last-minute lawsuits alleging that a donor funneled $75,000 to the Senator via his wife:

The most recent polling has shown the momentum swinging back to Coleman after a period in which Al Franken had taken the lead. But if the local news media ends up being focused in the last few days on corruption allegations against Coleman, it's possible that the undecideds and soft supporters of third-party candidate Dean Barkley could break to Franken.

Coleman Ad Fires Back, Accuses Franken Of Being Behind The Suit
Norm Coleman had his own ad, accusing Al Franken of being behind the lawsuits and conspiring to attack Coleman's wife:

"This time, Al Franken's crossed the line," Coleman says, his wife by his side. "My name's on the ballot -- I'm fair game for his ugly smears. My wife and family are not." The Franken campaign has strongly denied any involvement in the lawsuits.

Read more »

Jack Murtha, whose once-certain re-election has now been put in serious danger after he called his constituents racists and rednecks, has brought out two new weapons in his campaign: Bill and Hillary Clinton, who remain popular after they campaigned throughout the region for the Dem primary, and have recorded robocalls for the embattled incumbent.

Here's the Bill call:

Click To Play

"Jack has been a tireless worker for Western Pennsylvania and indeed for our whole country," Bill says. "His leadership is critical in this time of grave economic uncertainty because he's got a proven track record of creating new jobs and promoting economic development in his district and in a way that's good for everyone."

And here's the Hillary call:

Click To Play

"Jack Murtha knows Western Pennsylvania; Jack's a true leader," Hillary says. "He fights everyday for you, for our troops, and our veterans, just as he fought for me. I ask you please to support Jack Murtha on November the 4th."

Meanwhile, both parties are fighting hard in this seat. The NRCC's FEC papers from yesterday show they spent $465,000 in last-minute advertising yesterday for the race against Jack Murtha, whose once-safe re-election is threatened by him having called his constituents racists and rednecks. The DCCC also made their own massive buy of $450,000 in TV time, phone banking and mailing.

Here it is, the prank call in which a Canadian shock jock convinced Sarah Palin that she was speaking with French President Nicolas Sarkozy:

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama's lead expanded slightly again today, as most pollsters show him pulling away from John McCain in the home stretch:

• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% lead from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-47% Obama lead from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 48%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.2%-44.1%, a lead of 7.1 points, compared to the 51.0%-44.1% Obama lead from yesterday. Obama's lead also increased in yesterday's Composite, as well as in the one before that.

In Colorado later this afternoon, Barack Obama will pounce on Dick Cheney's endorsement of John McCain earlier today. From the prepared remarks:

I'd like to congratulate Senator McCain on this endorsement because he really earned it. That endorsement didn't come easy. Senator McCain had to vote 90 percent of the time with George Bush and Dick Cheney to get it. He served as Washington's biggest cheerleader for going to war in Iraq, and supports economic policies that are no different from the last eight years. So Senator McCain worked hard to get Dick Cheney's support.

But here's my question for you, Colorado: do you think Dick Cheney is delighted to support John McCain because he thinks John McCain's going to bring change? Do you think John McCain and Dick Cheney have been talking about how to shake things up, and get rid of the lobbyists and the old boys club in Washington?

Colorado, we know better. After all, it was just a few days ago that Senator McCain said that he and President Bush share a "common philosophy." And we know that when it comes to foreign policy, John McCain and Dick Cheney share a common philosophy that thinks that empty bluster from Washington will fix all of our problems, and a war without end in Iraq is the way to defeat Osama bin Laden and the al Qaeda terrorists who are in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

So George Bush may be in an undisclosed location, but Dick Cheney's out there on the campaign trail because he'd be delighted to pass the baton to John McCain. He knows that with John McCain you get a twofer: George Bush's economic policy and Dick Cheney's foreign policy -- but that's a risk we cannot afford to take.

A huge gift.

Uh oh. More trouble for Sarah Palin on the foreign policy front. In an interview with Fox's Greta Van Susteren yesterday, Palin professed confidence in victory on Tuesday as follows:

We realize that more and more Americans are starting to see the light there and understand the contrast. And we talk a lot about, OK, we're confident that we're going to win on Tuesday, so from there, the first 100 days, how are we going to kick in the plan that will get this economy back on the right track and really shore up the strategies that we need over in Iraq and Iran to win these wars?

Now, it's not fully clear that Palin was saying outright that we need to redouble our efforts to win an ongoing war in Iran. That's what her words mean. But it could have been a slip of the tongue.

Still, given the startling lack of foreign policy knowledge Palin has demonstrated, the possibility that she meant precisely what she said certainly can't be dismissed.

Late Update: Here's video:

It isn't every day that the Obama campaign alerts reporters to a glowing endorsement of McCain, but Dick Cheney -- he of the approval rating in the teens -- is another matter.

So the Obama camp was quick to blast out to the press this vid of Cheney saying today that "the right leader for this moment in history is Senator John McCain":

Cheney's claim that McCain is the "right leader" for this particular moment is particularly interesting in light of the Arizona Senator's recent claim that he was "terribly disappointed" with the Bush administration on the economy and in light of his call for a "clean break" with the admin on energy. It'll be interesting to see if the McCain press operation highlights this particular endorsement.

Late Update: To be a bit clearer, either Cheney doesn't believe McCain's claims that he represents a change from Bush-Cheney policies, or Cheney thinks that a clean break from his own policies is what's called for right now. The latter doesn't seem terribly likely.

A reader sends in a nasty mailer that just hit Philadelphia-area in-boxes, blasted out by a GOP group called the Republican Jewish Coalition, suggesting that a vote for Barack Obama could lead to another "tragic outcome" for the Jewish people.

Click on the image to enlarge:

"Concerned about Barack Obama? You should be," the mailer warns. "History has shown that a naive and weak foreign policy has resulted in tragic outcomes for the Jewish people."

The mailer helpfully notes that the image is a pic of Obama speaking in Germany.

That's the first page of the mailer, and according to the reader, the second page (which we don't have) goes on to hit Obama as weak and naive over his willingness to meet with hostile foreign leaders and his allegedly anti-Israel advisers. The mailer is a reprise of an earlier print advertisement that the group ran that made those points.

The mailer is similar to another viral email smear that has been making the rounds in the state: Last week the Pennsylvania GOP was forced to disavow an email to Jewish voters likening a vote for Obama to the events leading up to the Holocaust. Here you have the same point being made in blazing color.

The Washington Post has some amazing detail on the two campaigns' organizations in Virginia that dramatizes why Obama is outperforming in the state:

More than 10,000 volunteers are working for Obama in Virginia, according to the campaign...

Grass-roots activity in Virginia for McCain appears to be less energized. A recent two-day swing through every Northern Virginia campaign office for both candidates found crowds of volunteers for Obama on the phones, being trained to canvass and passing out signs, stickers and other material. McCain's offices were universally quiet, in some cases with just one or two field workers sitting at a counter or table and little foot traffic.

This week, just days before the election, Obama's Web site advertised more than 300 events in Northern Virginia; McCain's advertised seven.

To put this in perspective, consider that according to a WaPo poll earlier this week, more than half of Virginia voters said they'd been contacted by the Obama camp. Even better, among likely voters who'd been contacted but who hadn't heard from the McCain camp, Obama is leading 75%-22%.

This appears to be the story in other states, such as Indiana: Obama put an organization on the ground in "out of reach" red states, then worked and worked to make the race close or even take the lead, leaving the McCain camp scrambling to catch up.

The remaining schedules for all the candidates are pretty revealing.

Today, John McCain is in Virginia and Pennsylvania. Sarah Palin is hitting Florida, North Carolina And Virginia.

On Monday, the final day of campaigning, McCain will hit Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, and finally, his home state of Arizona, according to a McCain campaign memo blasted out last night. Palin will visit Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Alaska.

As you can see, this means that with the sole exception of McCain's visit to Pennsylvania, McCain and Palin are devoting their time to a dozen states that are either battlegrounds carried by Bush or were previously reliable red states. (No word on tomorrow's schedule yet.)

What about Barack Obama and Joe Biden? According to what we have of their schedules (we've got all of them from today through Monday except Biden tomorrow) neither man is spending a single second in a Kerry state -- save perhaps when they make flight transfers.

Instead, both are campaigning in Bush states from here on out: Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

McCain Playing Defense In Home Stretch -- Including Arizona
John McCain is spending the final days of the election by almost entirely playing defense in states won by George W. Bush in 2004. And perhaps most ominously for him, his final Election Eve rally will be held at midnight in his home state of Arizona, where the polls are close and the Obama campaign has just announced a new wave of advertising.

Obama In Nevada, Colorado And Missouri; Biden in Indiana And Ohio
Barack Obama is holding a 10 a.m. ET rally in Henderson, Nevada, a a 5 p.m. ET rally in Pueblo, Colorado, and a late-evening rally in Springfield, Missouri, with the latter two also featuring Michelle Obama. Joe Biden is holding an 11 a.m. ET rally in Evansville, Indiana, a 4:15 p.m. ET rally in Marion, Ohio, and a 6:30 p.m. ET rally in Bowling Green, Ohio;

McCain In Virginia And Pennsylvania; Palin In Florida, North Carolina And Virginia
John McCain has a 9 a.m. ET rally in Newport News, Virginia, a 12 p.m. ET rally in Springfield, Virginia, and a 3 p.m. ET rally in Perkasie, Pennsylvania. Sarah Palin has a very busy day ahead of her: A 9 a.m. ET rally in New Port Richey, Florida; an 11:45 a.m. ET rally in Polk City, Florida; a 2 p.m. ET rally in Ocala, Florida; a 7 p.m. ET rally in Raleigh, North Carolina; and a 9:30 p.m. ET rally in Glen Allen, Virginia.

Poll: Possible Tightening In Pennsylvania
A new Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania gives Barack Obama a lead of four points, narrower than other pollsters out there have shown. The numbers: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±4.5% margin of error, compared to a 53%-46% Obama lead from a few days ago.

Former Bush Speechwriter: We're Already Seeing The GOP "Circular Firing Squad"
Former George W. Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson has predicted that the post-election Republican Party, assuming it suffers a massive defeat as many people expect, will not be a pretty sight. "Usually a loss results in a circular firing squad of recrimination and anger, not a healthy discussion of the directions of the future," said Gerson. "And the reality is we're already beginning to see that right now."

Obama Does Radio Ads For Down-Ticket Dems
Barack Obama has taped two radio ads for Dem House candidates running against moderate GOP incumbents. Here are the ads for Dan Seals of Illinois and Jim Himes of Connecticut:

The incumbent Reps. Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Christopher Shays (R-CT) are both in districts that Obama is likely to carry by landslides, and Obama's coattails might be enough to carry Seals and Himes over the finish line against incumbents who probably would have won under more normal circumstances.

CNN downgrades McCain's home state from "safe McCain" to "leans McCain."

The network also moves North Dakota from "leans McCain" into the "toss-up" category. The Obama camp announced today that he's going on the air in both states, plus Georgia.

Fun and telling footnote: After reporting that, CNN adds:

But there's some good news for McCain down south: Louisiana has moved from "lean McCain" to "safe McCain."

Take the good news where you can get it...

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

GOP Candidate's Ad: Democrats Have Blown Up Our (Fiscal) Houses
Wow. Check out this truly amazing new ad from former Rep. Melissa Hart (R-PA), who lost her re-election in an upset in 2006, and is now in a rematch against Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire. The ad accuses the Democratic Congress of blowing up America's fiscal house:

Unfortunately, it looks like no real explosions were used in the making of this ad. Hart's campaign manager informed Election Central that the ad was most likely done with computers.

Franken's Closing Argument: Coleman Is "Trying To Fool You"
Here's Al Franken's new attack ad against Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), accusing him of running a "fake positive campaign" and lying about his political record and personal scandals:

"Norm Coleman really did take 52 trips paid for by special interests -- remember Alaska?" the announcer says. "Norm Coleman really does live in a million-dollar home owned by his special-interest friend. Norm Coleman really has voted with George Bush almost 90% of the time."

Read more »

The early vote, a key statistic that has been closely watched in the presidential race, appears to have already taken a toll on one Republican in particular: Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon, whose re-election campaign now appears to be in serious trouble.

Indeed, a victory now appears to be very difficult for him -- which would put Dems one step closer to the magic number of 60 in the Senate.

The pattern of the early voting in Oregon -- where all balloting is conducted by mail -- is clear from the opinion polls. A SurveyUSA poll from Monday had Smith's Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley up 51%-41% among the early voters, with an estimated half of the total likely votes already cast. A release this morning from Public Policy Polling (D) has Merkley up 59%-37% among early voters, with 59% of the total likely votes now cast.

Read more »

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama lead is steadily ticking back up again, suggesting that the recent period in which the race was starting to tighten may be over:

• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% lead from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 48%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.0%-44.1%, a lead of 6.9 points, compared to the 50.5%-44.2% Obama lead from yesterday. Obama's lead also increased in yesterday's Composite.

Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), who's trailing in the polls, is up with another nasty TV spot attacking her Dem opponent as a tool of "Godless Americans" and the atheist agenda -- in fact, Hagan is criticized for even going to a party with atheists:

"If Godless Americans threw a party in your honor," the announcer says, "would you go?"

Here's the basis of the Dole camp's claim that Hagan has sold out to the atheist agenda: Hagan attended a fundraiser up in Boston hosted by literally dozens of donors, two of whom happen to head up a little-known atheist group on the side called the Godless Americans PAC. The PAC itself never even donated to Hagan, who for her part is a regular church-goer and Sunday school teacher.

"I just think Elizabeth Dole is trying to top out her desperation day by day," Hagan spokesperson Colleen Flanagan told Election Central.

So has John McCain's big play for Pennsylvania, where he's hoping to poach 21 electoral votes out of the Democratic column, been paying off in the opinion polls?

The answer: Not in any way to speak of -- even though McCain and Palin have have each visited the state many times in the last two weeks, and Palin is herself spending all of today there.

McCain's own level of support has recovered somewhat from a deep hole he was in weeks ago -- when the economic crisis hit, he was down by as much as 15 points -- but his gains haven't significantly weakened Barack Obama's position. McCain has simply grabbed back some of his lost support from the undecided column, but Obama hasn't actually lost much from what he gained during the same period.

The graph from Pollster.com illustrates the situation very clearly:

Only two polls in the last week, from Mason-Dixon and Strategic Vision (R), have put Obama below 50% support, while most others have him above that key level. For example, CNN has Obama up 55%-43%, and the local college Franklin & Marshall has him up 53%-40%.

Obama should still be expected to score a decent-sized victory here, unless the polls turn out to be drastically wrong or show a dramatic swing to McCain in the next few days.

John McCain's new 30-second spot, set to air in key states, presents a closing argument based on his POW biography, and the implication that he's the real candidate of substance:

"I've served my country since I was 17 years old -- and spent five years longing for her shores," McCain says, as footage of him in his Vietnam hospital bed is played. "I came home dedicated to a cause greater than my own."

McCain then talks about how he'll cut government waste and grow the economy, closing on his campaign's theme that Barack Obama is an empty suit, without mentioning him by name: "Don't hope for a stronger America. Vote for one."

Swift and targeted on-air responses have been key to Obama's success, and the Obama camp has just unleashed a particularly hard-hitting response in the Norfolk, Virginia market to the RNC's ad there charging that he wants to cut defense spending, an important local issue.

Here's Obama's new spot:

"John McCain's gotten so desperate, he'll say anything," the ad says. "His defense spending attack -- it's a lie."

The ad quotes McCain military adviser Robert Kagan saying: "Obama wants to increase defense spending. He wants to add 65,000 troops to the Army and recruit 27,000 more Marines to fight terrorism."

The ad concludes that Obama "knows a stronger military means a safer America, and a stronger economy here in Virginia."

Late Update: The Kagan piece the ad refers to is here. It's an analysis of a speech that Obama gave in April of 2007, which Kagan sarcastically said showed that Obama, rather than espouse a "left-liberal" foreign policy," was articulating a role for America as an aggressive "interventionist" because (said Kagan) that's what Obama's advisers think the "American people want to hear."

Late Late Update: Steve Benen -- again -- provides much needed context.

Still more signs that John McCain is in a panic over Arizona. He now has a second slime call running in his home state, this one attacking Obama for his "present" votes in the state senate and hitting him as a "follower" and not a "leader."

For good measure, the call also calls Obama "America's most liberal Senator."

Here's audio of the call, which was sent in by Milly Haeuptle, an artist and teacher in Flagstaff, AZ, and received by other readers around the state:

Click To Play

The caller introduces himself as calling for "McCain and the RNC." Then it continues:

Because with two wars abroad and an economy in crisis, we need a leader in the White House, not a follower. As a state senator, Barack Obama refused to take a stand on politically risky issues 129 different times by voting "present." And in his short career in the U.S. Senate, he's voted the party line an astounding 97 percent of the time, earning the title of America's most liberal senator.

Barack Obama talks a lot about change, but we can't trust his track record to deliver it. This call is paid for by the Republican National Committee at 866-558-5591and authorized by McCain-Palin 2008.

The claim that Obama has the "title" of "America's most liberal Senator" is, laughably, based on the National Journal's ranking of him as the most liberal in one year -- 2007. Recycling this one, along with the state senate stuff, is really scraping the bottom of the barrel.

McCain has now been reduced to harassing his own constitutents with this kind of nonsense.

Late Update: The same call is also running in Colorado.

Since John McCain is suggesting that Obama is secretly plotting to seize the wealth of masses of hard-working plumbers, builders and hockey moms in order to transfer it to lazy poor people, this new Gallup poll seems significant:

The latest polling, taken amid McCain's big Joe the Plumber assault, shows that 58% favor a fairer distribution of wealth than exists now, while only 37% say the current distribution is equitable. While the poll does show that only 46% favor "heavy taxes on the rich," that's not how Obama would describe his plan, obviously.

Keep in mind that McCain is directly attacking Obama for his generic support for the mere idea of spreading the wealth and of the basic government function of redistribution. As Matthew Yglesias puts it: "A large majority of Americans have favored spreading the wealth around."

I'd only add that there's obviously more to McCain's attack than an effort to have a good-faith discussion about economic policies. Just as with the Ayers attack, this particular assault is really about suggesting that Obama harbors secret and vague radical schemes, whether it's undermining American strength and the war on terror from within or sapping the American economy with.shadowy wealth-transfer schemes that will take your money away. It's just more of the "risky unknown" stuff.

Late Update: Steve Benen adds an important point about the real goals of McCain's "spread the wealth" attack.

Another poll shows that John McCain could be in serious danger of losing his home state of Arizona -- and remember, the Obama campaign just announced that they'll be advertising there for the first time in the general election.

The new numbers from Research 2000: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, with a ±4% margin of error. The key number from the internals is that Obama is winning the early vote by a 54%-42% margin, and this group is expected to make up 17% of the total likely voters.

Another important number, showing McCain's latent vulnerability: In a test run for his 2010 re-election against Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, McCain is trailing 53%-45%.

Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races:

Bachmann Rolls Out Attack Ads Against Tinklenberg -- With Fake Citations
Michele Bachmann has unleashed a new wave of attack ads against El Tinklenberg, the relatively-conservative Democrat who has taken a narrow lead in the polls in the wake of her disastrous appearance on Hardball. Here's one of them, alleging that he broke the law and rigged contracts when he was the state's commissioner of transportation:

Meanwhile, Minnesota Public Radio says the facts contradict Bachmann's claims, right down to the claim that the Minneapolis Star-Tribune said Tinklenberg broke the law: "But the stories did not claim Tinklenberg broke the law." Furthermore, a 2003 report from the state's legislative auditor, which looked into the bidding processes of several government agencies, never mentioned Tinklenberg himself or alleged any crimes.

CQ: Dems Poised For Historic Second Wave
CQ's latest House race ratings show the Democrats headed for a historic second consecutive wave election, with double-digit gains in the House. If the 25 races currently rated as toss-ups are split evenly between the two parties -- an essentially neutral and cautious assumption -- the Dems would have an overall net gain of 18 or 19 seats, for a total of 254 or 255 seats.

Read more »

It's one of the key underplayed stories of this election, but more and more media figures are beginning to acknowledge that the onetime Ruler of Their World has lost his hypnotic sway over the media.

Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post, for instance, yesterday asked: "Does Drudge matter?" Though Cillizza didn't take a position one way or the other, the mere fact that he dared to raise the question is significant. Cillizza has been one of the most prominent purveyors of the "Drudge Rules Our World" theory of American politics, as recently as a few weeks ago.

WaPo's Howard Kurtz, the ultimate Beltway media insider, also recently raised questions about Drudge's not-so-iron-grip on the press corps, asking whether his influence is "overstated" and expressing decided skepticism about Drudge's current pull.

Perhaps best of all, look at how Mark Halperin is handling Drudge this morning:

For Halperin to describe Drudge as "semi-defanged" and to rib his "fifth-to-last refuge" is a seminal moment of sorts. Recall that Halperin is the person who originally coined the "Drudge rules our world" phrase.

Read more »

On a conference call with reporters just now, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said that the campaign is going up on the air in the final stretch in three states: Georgia, North Dakota, and ... McCain's home state of Arizona.

Plouffe said that yesterday's "rear view mirror" ad attacking McSame would go up in Georgia and North Dakota, and the positive closing spot, which features the endorsements of Warren Buffett and Colin Powell, would go up in Arizona.

The campaign had previously run ads in Georgia and North Dakota but had gone dark after McCain seemed to be holding on in those states.

The Arizona gambit, obviously, is an entirely new move.

View both ads here.

Late Update: Plouffe adds that one reason for entering Arizona is that the Obama camp thinks they're doing very well with the state's hispanic and suburban voters.

Late Late Update: Two other interesting points from Plouffe. First, he said that the campaign is very pleased with where they stand with independent voters in the West, predicting that they are key to the campaign's chances in Colorado and could conceivably help tip Arizona Obama's way.

Also, Plouffe pushed back hard on the notion -- heavily promoted of late by the McCain team -- that undecideds will break heavily to McCain. He said internal data belies this and has left the campaign happy with the way Obama is perceived by undecideds both personally and on the issues. He added that get out the vote efforts would make Obama very competitive with the last-minute deciders.

More good news for Obama on the early voting front: It's been extended in North Carolina, reports the Charlotte Observer.

North Carolina Republicans, predictably, are outraged by the extension -- not because Obama is leading McCain in early voting in the state by 59%-33%, as of two days ago -- but because they say they're worried about the stressed out election officials.

New McCain Ad: Obama Endorses McCain -- And Lieberman
The new McCain ad, set to air in key states, features footage of Barack Obama in a Senate hearing from January 2007, praising the McCain-Lieberman plan on global warming:

"I want to thank Senator Lieberman, as well as Senator McCain, for the outstanding leadership that they've shown," Obama says. This ad might have been more effective if Joe Lieberman had been McCain's running mate, instead of somebody who denies man-made global warming. And furthermore, the environment isn't even one of the big issues in this campaign.

Obama In Iowa And Indiana; Biden In Ohio -- And Delaware
Barack Obama has a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Des Moines, Iowa, and a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Highland, Indiana. Joe Biden is curiously starting the day with a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Newark, Delaware -- in his home state, which is a virtual lock to vote Democratic -- followed by a 2 p.m. ET rally in Kettering, Ohio, and a 4 p.m. ET rally in Lima, Ohio.

McCain Touring Ohio; Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning through Ohio today, with a 10 a.m. ET rally in Hanoverton, a smaller 12:15 p.m. ET event in Steubenville and another such event at 1:30 p.m. ET in New Philadelphia, and a 5:50 p.m. ET event alongside Arnold Schwarzenegger in Columbus. Sarah Palin is continuing on the campaign's much-derided attempt to win Pennsylvania, with a 9 a.m. ET rally in Latrobe, and a 4 p.m. ET rally in York.

Obama Camp Downplays Report Of Rahm As Chief Of Staff
The Obama camp moved last night to talk down an AP report that the candidate approached Rahm Emanuel about being chief of staff -- though they didn't quite deny it, either. Obama told the Chicago Sun-Times, "I'm trying to win an election," and David Axelrod said, "Don't believe everything you read."

Poll: Obama Up Ten Points In Colorado
A new survey of Colorado from Public Policy Polling (D) confirms the general consensus that Barack Obama is on his way to winning the two-time Bush state of Colorado. The numbers: Obama 54%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.2% margin of error.

McCain To Appear On Saturday Night Live
John McCain will make a special guest appearance tomorrow night on Saturday Night Live. Whether he moves anybody's votes with the appearance will be anybody's guess, but at least it shows he's a good sport about all those recent sketches in which Darrell Hammond has torn him to pieces.

McCain: Joe The Plumber Is "My Role Model"
At a rally last night in Ohio, John McCain referred to Joe "The Plumber" Wurzelbacher as "an American hero, a great citizen of Ohio and my role model." And no, this is not from The Onion.

The new CBS/New York Times poll gives Barack Obama a big lead over John McCain: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, not significantly different from a 52%-39% Obama lead last week.

Some polls show a tighter race, while others generally agree with the CBS/NYT number -- and it turns out the difference comes down to whether you believe the much-discussed new voters will turn out in the end.

This particular poll's likely-voter model is breaking from the traditional requirement that respondents will need to have voted before -- it predicts that 13% of registered voters will be likely voters casting their first ballot ever for president.

And, the poll informs us, this group is going to Obama by a 60%-31% margin. If those new voters turn out, Obama could win in a blowout.

Of course, if these voters don't show up in the end -- and they haven't in the past -- it could be a whole lot closer.

A reader sends in this mailer by the Pennsylvania GOP which hails Hillary for the feminist breakthrough her candidacy represented -- displaying an affection for Hillary that is somewhat atypical for Republicans -- and even likens John McCain to the New York Senator.

The mailer, a bid for Hillary voters in Pennsylvania, features McCain and Hillary gazing at each other above a testimonial to Hillary's 18 million votes, a picture of Sarah Palin, and even an evocation of Hillary's criticism of Obama during the primary: "Both she and John McCain have shown the American people proven results, not pretty words." Click on the images to enlarge:

Responds Hillary spokesperson Kathleen Strand: "It is safe to say Hillary Clinton does not approve this message. She made history earning 18 million votes and has urged everyone who supported her to vote for Barack Obama because they have so much more in common with him than they do with Senator McCain. Voters should not be distracted by last minute, desperate attempts that claim otherwise."

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Hagan Files Lawsuit Against Dole Over Atheism Attack Ad, Launches Rebuttal Spot
Senate candidate Kay Hagan (D-NC) has announced that she is filing a defamation lawsuit against the campaign of GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole, over an attack ad that accused Hagan of selling out to the Godless atheist agenda. Hagan also has this new rebuttal spot:

"I'm Kay Hagan, and Elizabeth Dole's attacks on my Christian faith are offensive. She even faked my voice in her TV ad to make you think I don't believe in God," Hagan says. "Well I believe in God. I taught Sunday school. My faith guides my life, and Senator Dole knows it. Sure,politics is a tough business, but I approve this message because my campaign is about creating jobs and fixing our economy -- not bearing false witness against fellow Christians."

Two More Polls Have Dole Losing
Meanwhile, two separate polls today show Hagan leading Dole by six points: Hagan is up 52%-46% in Rasmussen, with a ±4% margin of error, and Hagan is ahead 43%-37% in National Journal, with a ±4.9% margin of error.

Read more »

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. The recent tightening in the race appears to have stopped for today, with Obama's lead expanding slightly:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-47% Obama lead from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.5%-44.2%, a lead of 6.3 points, compared to the 50.2%-44.4% Obama lead from yesterday.

Some must-watch video: McCain spokesperson Michael Goldfarb, pressed on CNN to name Obama's anti-semitic associates, pulls a bit of a homina homina homina.

He seems to want to blurt out "Jeremiah Wright" but is of course aware that John McCain is on record saying that Wright isn't an issue for his campaign. Check out Goldfarb's creative solution to the dilemma:

Pressed to name a single anti-semitic associate of Obama's, Goldfarb says: "I think we all know who we're talking about here," but declines to say who.

That sums up the entire McCain campaign in a nutshell, doesn't it?

Also: A good point from Atrios on this.

Get ready for a deluge of Wright rantings.

The National Republican Trust PAC, which has been airing an ad attacking Barack Obama's association with Reverend Wright in three battleground states, has now put down for a national buy on five networks that will last from now through election day, a consultant with the group confirms to me.

The ad will run nationally on Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, and NBC for the next five days, the consultant, Rick Wilson, says -- "all the way until election day."

The ad, which you can watch here, features the now-infamous footage of Wright's livelier sermons, and intones that Obama "never complained" about Wright "until he ran for President," adding that Obama is "too radical, too risky."

Previously, the ad was only running in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, as Ben Smith reported the other day.

Now, however, the ad will run nationally, Wilson says, adding that the group just got through getting the spot vetted with network lawyers and is good to go.

Late Update: Wilson tells me that the PAC will have spent $2 million on this national buy by the end of tomorrow.

Everyone has wanted to know when or whether Al Qaeda would try to swing the Presidential election. Well, we now may have our answer:

An al Qaeda leader has called for President George W. Bush and the Republicans to be "humiliated", without endorsing any party in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, according to a video posted on the Internet.

"O God, humiliate Bush and his party, O Lord of the Worlds, degrade and defy him," Abu Yahya al-Libi said at the end of sermon marking the Muslim feast of Eid al-Fitr, in a video posted on the Internet.

Libi, one of the top al Qaeda commanders believed to be living in Afghanistan or Pakistan, called for God's wrath to be brought against Bush equating him with past tyrants in history.

Hmmm. Looks like McCain didn't get the coveted Bin Laden boost yet, so for now he'll have to settle for this far more obscure figure.

Seriously, if the Repubs grab on to this, as seems likely, there's plenty of material for Dems to be ready with push-back. There's plenty of evidence, from people who know what they're taking about, that Al Qaeda prefers pro-war Republican rule in America and that saying such stuff could be designed to help McCain win.

Remember that journalist Ron Suskind reported that CIA analysts concluded that Bin Laden had released a tape of himself on the eve of the 2004 election in order to help Bush stay in power, partly because his presidency made such a handy recruiting tool.

Even better, counter-terrorism expert Richard Clarke recently surmised that Al Qaeda might try to swing the election to McCain, perhaps with a terror attack, or with some kind of videotaped remarks. Looks like one Al Qaeda leader may now be proving Clarke right.

Late Update: I forgot the best part -- the other day the news broke that Al Qaeda supporters on Websites affilitated with the group said they were actively pulling for McCain to win.

The newest polls show tight races in some key swing states -- with two separate polls confirming a close race in Indiana:

• Indiana: Obama is up 46%-45% in a new Selzer poll, and it's a tied race of 47%-47% according to a Research 2000 poll released last night. Obama was up 47%-44% in a Selzer poll from a month and a half ago, and Research 2000 had Obama up 48%-47% the day before yesterday.

• Colorado: Marist has Obama ahead 51%-45%, with a ±4% margin of error. The key state is that Obama has won the early vote 59%-41%, with a 46%-46% tie among the remaining likely electorate. There is no prior Marist poll for comparison.

• Virginia: Marist has Obama up 51%-47%, with a ±4% margin of error. There is no prior Marist poll for comparison. The polls in Virginia right now are split between those who say Obama is narrowly ahead and those who say he's way ahead.

Also, the new Fox News national poll has Obama ahead 47%-44%, with a ±3% margin of error, a much closer lead than the 49%-40% advantage from a week ago.

Hmm, a new twist to robo-slime-gate. John McCain appears to be pumping one of the nastier species of his robo-slime into a state where he has no chance whatsoever of winning.

A reader just outside of Seattle, in Washington State, reports to us that she got this McCain robo-call that was running yesterday in Arizona -- it paints Obama as unprepared to handle terror and singles out Joe Biden's recent claim that Obama was likely to be tested by an international crisis early in his first term.

The reader, Anne Francis, who is general manager for a company that books Broadway shows in venues across the country, played us the call, which came into her home phone.

The Real Clear Politics average has Obama up by 17 in this state. So we're not sure what to make of this.

Perhaps most of the Kerry toss-up states are so out of reach that the GOP is pumping robo-slime wildly in all directions in hopes of somehow getting some blue state, any blue state, to flip somewhere. Or maybe the robo-slime machine is in overdrive and cracking up and the GOP has lost control of it, like some kind of rampaging Franken-Slime monster on the loose.

Over the summer Bill Clinton was reported to be miffed that Barack Obama wasn't talking up the successes of the Clinton economy as a way of making the case that Americans are better off when Dems are in power.

If that's true, Bill will be cheered by the speech Obama gave moments ago in Sarasota, Florida, where he basically said that a vote for him was a vote for a Bill Clinton economy. Here's what he said:

The average working family is $2,000 dollars poorer now than when George Bush took office. When Bill Clinton was president, the average wages and incomes went up $7,500 dollars. So I've got an economic plan that is similar to Bill Clinton's and Senator McCain's got an economic plan similar to George Bush's. Look and see what works and what doesn't.

Those last two lines weren't in Obama's prepared remarks yesterday, but now they appear to have been cycled into his stump speech now.

In another bit of interesting ad-libbing, Obama hit John McCain and Sarah Palin for making a "virtue out of selfishness," and embellished a bit on his "peanut butter and jelly" push-back from yesterday against McCain's efforts to paint him as a closet socialist. Speaking of Obama's desire to roll back the Bush tax cuts on the very rich, Obama said:

John McCain and Sarah Palin, they call this socialistic. Y'know, I don't know when they decided they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness. Y'know, the next thing I know, they're gonna find evidence of my communistic tendencies because I shared my toys in kindergarten -- cause I split my peanut butter and jelly sandwich with my friend in sixth grade.

As I argued yesterday, the politics of peanut butter and jelly are more complex than they appear.

Nielsen releases its ratings on Obama's infomercial last night:

The combined overall household rating for Senator Barack Obama's Wednesday night infomercial, in the top 56 local television markets where Nielsen maintains electronic TV meters, was 21.7...

In comparison, the final debate between the two presidential candidates received a 38.3 household rating in the top 56 local TV markets. The candidates' first debate on September 26 received a 34.7 household rating in the top 55 markets; their second debate, on October 7, received a 42.0 household rating in those markets.

One-fifth of households for a political ad -- okay, a political ad on steroids -- seems awfully high, no?

Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

GOP Ad: "We Know John Murtha Doesn't Respect Us"
Here's the NRCC's new ad against Jack Murtha, replaying the video of Murtha calling his constituents racists and rednecks:

The latest polls show the once-safe Murtha now locked in a tight race with his unknown GOP opponent. If Murtha loses, this will end up being remembered as the Democratic version of a "Macaca Moment."

Dem Ad: Bachmann's Claims About Financial Regulation Are Literally Laughable
The DCCC has this new ad against the notorious Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), featuring video of her getting laughed at by a debate audience when she said the financial crisis was caused by too much regulation of Wall St.:

Bachmann was well on track for victory before her McCarthyist rant on Hardball, but the DCCC really smells blood in the water -- the latest FEC filings showed them buying up over half a million dollars in advertising against her.

Read more »

The Obama campaign goes up in states across the country with a pair of closing-argument ads that return to the themes that launched his campaign nearly two years ago: Bringing people together in the service of change.

The first spot highlights his endorsements by Colin Powell and Warren Buffet to argue that "something's happening in America...people from every walk of life...uniting in common purpose." The spot seems designed to give viewers a stake in Obama's candidacy by making them feel caught up in a historical moment that's driven as much by them as by the candidate:

The second spot shows Bush and McCain in the rear-view mirror -- literally -- to reinforce the frame that's held for many months now: Change versus more of the same...

The outside groups on the right are starting to hit the race panic button as time runs out and things look increasingly dire.

The National Republican Trust PAC, for instance, just reported to the FEC that it sank nearly $900,000 into a new ad buy, most likely for this spot hitting Obama with a bunch of footage of Jeremiah Wright's rants:

The group had previously vowed to spend some $2.5 million on the spot, so this current buy falls short, but nonetheless amounts to real ad cash. (There's still more time, obviously, for the group to do a second buy.)

Meanwhile, another winger outside group, Let Freedom Ring, which has been known to spend serious money, is up with this new spot using Martin Luther King's "content of their character" line to urge a vote against Obama:

Late Update: A commenter below explains the spot's rationale:

Seems to me like the target audience on the second one is white Democrats who want to be reassured that they are not racists if they don't vote for Obama. (See, even that black person doesn't like him, and he can't articulate why, either!)

Chuck Todd and the gang at MSNBC's First Read have a nice little scooplet (no link yet):

Tomorrow, according to sources, Al and Tipper Gore will be stumping for Obama in West Palm and Ft. Lauderdale. It's the first time he's campaigned in Florida for president since 2000. While he's campaigned in the Sunshine State since 2000, he's not done so for a presidential candidate since he himself was running.

The image of Gore in Florida, for obvious reasons, will be a powerful one for rank-and-file Dems. Also note the extraordinary amount of attention that the Obama camp is lavishing on the state in the home stretch.

Bill Clinton was there yesterday with Obama, who holds a rally there this morning, and now Gore tomorrow. You have to imagine that all the Dem activity in this state, which was supposed to be an easy win for McCain, is rattling the McCain team like nothing else.

Late Update: Gore spokesperson Kalee Kreider emails to confirm that the events are indeed set to go.

Polls: Obama Ahead In The Battlegrounds -- And Running Close In Arizona
The new CNN state polls: Obama is up 55%-43% in Pennsylvania; up 52%-46% in North Carolina; up 52%-45% in Nevada; up 51%-47% in Ohio; and is trailing McCain 53%-46% in McCain's home state of Arizona. McCain will probably win Arizona in the end -- but as for the rest of those states, it's looking more and more likely that this election will be an Electoral College landslide for Obama.

Obama In Florida, Virginia And Missouri; Biden In Missouri And Pennsylvania
Barack Obama is campaigning in three swing states today: An 11 a.m. ET rally in Sarasota, Florida; a 5:45 p.m. ET rally in Virginia Beach, Virginia; and a 10:30 p.m. ET rally in Columbia, Missouri. Joe Biden has an 8:30 a.m. ET rally in Arnold, Missouri, and will then go to Pennsylvania for a rally in Williamsport and a rally later at night in Allentown.

McCain In Ohio; Palin In Missouri And Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning through Ohio today: Rallying his supporters at 10 a.m. ET in the aptly-named town of Defiance, Ohio; A 3:10 a.m. ET rally in Elyria; and a 6 p.m. ET rally in Mentor. Sarah Palin has a 10:30 a.m. ET rally in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, then goes on to Pennsylvania for a 4:15 p.m. ET rally in Erie and a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.

McCain: Okay, Obama Isn't A Socialist, But He's Still A Radical
In an interview with Larry King last night, John McCain had this to say when asked bluntly whether Barack Obama is a socialist: "No, but I do believe that he has been in the far left of American politics, and stated time after time that he believes in spreading the wealth around."

NYT: Early Voting Is A Hit
The New York Times reviews the latest early-voting stats, showing that early voting has now earned itself a major place in American politics. It's now expected that a full third of the total votes across the country will have been cast early, relieving congestion at the polls on Election Day as voters whose minds were made up get in their say beforehand -- for example, I mailed my absentee ballot this morning.

RNC Ad: Can You Wait While Obama Learns To Be President?
Here's the RNC's new attack ad, airing in targeted states, hitting Barack Obama on inexperience:

"Would you get on a plane with a pilot who has never flown?" the announcer asks. "Would you trust your child with someone who has never cared for children? Would you go under with a surgeon who has never operated?"

Here it is -- Barack Obama's prime-time infomercial:

The piece itself -- with a mix of Obama's life story, praise from Democratic leaders and some discussion of policies we've all heard before -- is less interesting than its own existence and what it represents. Nobody has attempted something like this since Ross Perot, and he had his own money to bankroll his informercials.

It's intriguing to consider the enviable problem the Obama campaign has on its hands: Their small donors have been giving them so much money, they're left to think up new ways to spend the cash before the election is over.

A last-minute attack ad from Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), who is narrowly trailing Democratic challenger Kay Hagan in all the polls, has the Hagan campaign accusing the Dole team of crossing the line from ordinary mud-slinging into legal defamation -- and the Dole campaign accusing Hagan of trying to deny her allegiance to the Godless atheist agenda.

Here's that ad, which hammers Hagan for holding a fundraiser at the Boston home of a donor who also happens to head up a group called the Godless Americans PAC, a group that stands for pretty much what you'd expect from the name:

"Godless Americans and Kay Hagan -- she hid from cameras, took Godless money. What did Hagan promise in return?" the announcer says, followed by a photo of Hagan mixed with the voice of one of the atheist activists declaring, "There is no God!"

The Hagan campaign has now announced they're seeking a cease-and-desist order, charging that the ad would lead a viewer to believe that it's Hagan herself declaring there is no God -- when in fact she's a regular churchgoer and Sunday school teacher. "Elizabeth Dole is attacking my strong Christian faith," Hagan told reporters.

And the mud-slinging only gets nastier from there.

Read more »

Ana Marie Cox gets some great color from Sarah Palin's event today, where she rambled off her energy speech script so many times that her own teleprompter practically exploded:

Here, in Toledo, where she just gave a speech on energy independence, Palin's own independence took a literal turn: If there is any one place she has gone rogue, it is against her teleprompter.

Visible over the shoulder of the press corps, the monitor that displayed Palin's speech shifted occasionally, as its operator struggled to pick back up after she drifted off in tangents, dropping in folksy-isms like urging some "tappin' into new ideas" and noting "special interests" -- "I've had to take on some of that," she said, "especially up there in Alaska, where they didn't want any shakin' up."

Her ad-libs are short on "g's."

Following along in the prepared remarks, another theme developed in the lines Palin delivered: herself.

To the statement, "So, we introduced the big oil companies and their lobbyists to a concept some of them had forgotten -- free-market competition," she inserted, a "when I got elected," as in, "So, we introduced -- when I got elected -- the big oil companies."

And when the remarks had her warning "energy security...demands of us that we shake off old ways, negotiate new hazards and make hard choices long deferred," she made the plea personal: "I do not want to hand this problem off onto my children or to your children."

Hmm. Someone just might be eying 2012, we wager. The rest of Cox's piece, which argues that Palin's rebellions against McCain's message are less about shafting McCain than they are about her general tendency to veer off script, is here.

On another note, does anyone else think it's kind of bizarre that at an event staged at a solar energy plant, Palin hit her "drill, baby, drill" line again?

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

Another Poll Shows Tight Race For Murtha
A new poll from the Las-Vegas based Dane & Associates, commissioned by GrassrootsPA.com, shows Jack Murtha with a bare lead of 46%-44% over GOP opponent William Russell, within the ±3% margin of error. GrassrootsPA.com is a right-wing site, but it should be noted that Dane is a non-partisan firm that has done polling work for politicians of both parties from across the country.

New Mahoney Ad: He's A Jerk, But Look At The Other Guy
Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL), whose sex scandal has probably doomed his bid for re-election, has this new ad in which constituents admit he's been a personal disappointment, but his opponent's positions on the issues would damage the country:

One line in particular seems poorly written for a politician in Mahoney's situation: "He (Rooney) doesn't have Congressman Mahoney's experience."

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John McCain and the Republican National Committee are now running robocalls attacking Obama as weak on terrorism -- in McCain's home state of Arizona, according to multiple readers from the state.

The call signals genuine worry about McCain's home state at a time when several polls show the race to be much closer than expected there.

McCain's robocall, which was played to us over the phone by Mary Joe Bartel, a retiree who lives south of Tucson, attacks Obama as unprepared to defend the country from terrorism, singling out Joe Biden's recent remarks about the likelihood of Obama being tested by an international crisis early in his first term.

Here's the script:

I'm calling for John McCain and the RNC because Barack Obama is so dangerously inexperienced, his running mate Joe Biden just said, he invites a major international crisis that he will be unprepared to handle alone.

If Democrats win full control of government, they will want to give civil rights to terrorists and talk unconditionally to dictators and state sponsors of terror. Barack Obama and his Democratic allies lack the experience and judgment to lead America. This call was paid for by the Republican National Committee and authorized by McCain-Palin 2008.

Two other Arizona readers -- David Lorti, a Phoenix realtor, and Jerry Mooers, a retiree from Sun Lakes -- confirm to us that they received the same call today.

A poll last night found Obama within two points of the Arizona Senator. The call means Republicans are sinking resources into a state that obviously should have been a complete lock for McCain, with time fast running out.

Simply extraordinary. Audio when we get it.

Late Update: Here's the audio.

Click to play

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama's support may have dipped slightly in today's polling as the race slowly tightens, but John McCain has failed to make new headway and Obama remains ahead:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, compared to a 52%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.2%-44.4%, a lead of 5.8 points, compared to the 50.6%-44.4% Obama lead from yesterday.

The new CNN polls confirm the conventional wisdom that Barack Obama is close to locking up Colorado and Virgnia -- a combination that would would deliver him the presidency if he holds on to all the Kerry states -- and he's running strong in other swing states, too:

• Colorado: Obama 53%, McCain 45%. Two weeks ago, Obama led 51%-47%.

• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, not all that different from the 51%-46% Obama lead two weeks ago.

• Georgia: McCain 52%, Obama 47%. This is not significantly changed from the 53%-45% McCain lead a week ago -- but it is significantly different from the 17-point win that George W. Bush had here in 2004, and could have serious implications in down-ticket races.

• Missouri: McCain 50%, Obama 48%, basically the same as a 49%-48% McCain lead two weeks ago.

• Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, not significantly changed from the 54%-44% Obama lead two weeks ago.

All five of these states went to George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 75 electoral votes. These surveys all have a margin of error of ±3.5%.

As noted above, Virginia and Colorado together would guarantee Obama the presidency if he can hold all the other Kerry states -- an assumption that seems like a pretty safe bet at this point.

A quick thought on Obama's appearance today in Raleigh, where he mocked McCain's efforts to paint him as a closet socialist by confessing to his Marxist leanings in Kindergarten.

The levity masks something that is deadly serious. This represents a real effort to push back against the McCain-Palin attacks, by reminding people that Obama is the one who is solidly in the mainstream on the economy, while painting McCain as the extreme one.

As one Democrat noted to me today, the Obama campaign is well aware that McCain's attacks on Obama as "redistributionist," as absurd as they are, continue to get attention in the national media. McCain's portrayal of Obama's economic plan as extreme leftism hadn't yet met with sustained push-back from the Obama team -- they tried talking about Joe the Plumber but soon dropped that line.

Today's "kindergarten" and "peanut butter and jelly" hit seems like a pretty solid effort to get serious about defusing the "socialism" charge with a bid for the center on the economy and a reminder that McCain's views are the extreme ones.

Obama is using gentle humor and some un-threatening imagery to do this. He's reminding folks that McCain's efforts to paint the basic and thoroughly uncontroversial government function of redistribution (not to say the proposed tax hikes on the very rich) as frighteningly Marxist or socialist is about as wild-eyed and radical as sounding the commie alarm about kids sharing toys.

The battle here is over who gets to define the center, which in the real world is inhabited by Obama, and who succeeds in marginalizing the other as extreme. Barack Obama is probably the greatest public communicator in decades, so it's worth keeping in mind that beneath the jokes a very serious and high stakes game is often being played.

The tide of McCain robo-slime keeps rising. The latest McCain robocall hits Obama over his "20 year" friendship with "convicted felon" Tony Rezko, saying he helped Obama buy his "mansion" in a "swanky" neighborhood.

For good measure, the call blames the entire financial meltdown on the Democrats' two years of control over Congress.

"Since the Democrats took control of Congress only two years ago they have driven our economy into the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression," says the call, which was reported to us by readers in Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, and North Carolina.

Here's audio:

Click To Play

Script:

Hello, I'm calling for John McCain and the RNC because you need to know that Barack Obama and convicted felon Tony Rezko have been friends for almost 20 years. Rezko donated and raised thousands of dollars of political contributions for Obama. And Rezko helped Obama buy his $1.6 million mansion in a swanky Chicago neighborhood. Obama needs to come clean on this deal before the election so that the voters can judge whether Obama received monetary benefits from these Rezko favors.

And since the Democrats took control of Congress only two years ago they have driven our economy into the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. And what's their solution to the problem? To spread more of our wealth around by raising our taxes and giving it to those who don't pay a single penny of federal income tax.

With friends and priorities like these Barack Obama and his Democrat allies lack the judgment to lead our country. This call is paid for by the Republican National Committee and McCain-Palin 2008 at 866-558-5591.

As I've noted before, these calls no longer make news. McCain weathered the initial fusillade of bad press that greeted his initial wave of robo-slime, and the big news orgs lost interest. Now McCain can keep pumping out the robo-slime at ever slimier levels without paying any kind of price for it in the national media.

The first public poll of Alaska conducted entirely after GOP Sen. Ted Stevens was convicted on all counts in his corruption trial shows a probable Democratic pickup in this deep-red state -- but Stevens is doing surprisingly well for a newly-minted convicted felon.

The new numbers from Rasmussen: Dem candidate Mark Begich 52%, Stevens 44%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Uncle Ted had taken a 49%-48% edge over Begich. So apparently getting convicted of a felony a week before the election can be quantified as taking five points off of a candidate's poll numbers.

On the one hand, this is still a deep-red state, and Stevens might have an outside shot at getting re-elected even with the conviction. On the other hand, the Democrat is up eight points a week out from Election Day, and more and more Republicans are calling upon Stevens to resign.

And those Republican leaders aren't the only ones calling for Stevens' resignation. The poll also shows that 52% of likely votes want Stevens to resign -- the same percentage as those who say they're voting for Begich.

In Raleigh just now, Barack Obama went beyond the prepared remarks in pushing back on McCain's "socialist" attacks, ad-libbing about the shadowy Marxist and redistributionist leanings he's secretly harbored since kindergarten:

"By the end of the week, he'll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten," Obama said, as per the prepared remarks. Then he added: "I shared my -- I shared my peanut butter and jelly sandwich."

It's a nifty way of highlighting, in a roundabout way, the McCain-Palin attacks in all their utter childishness.

Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

Right-Wing Group Jumps In Against Murtha
The right-wingers smell blood in the water in the wake of Jack Murtha's comments calling his constituents racists and rednecks, and now Vets For Freedom is going in with this ad buy of more than $50,000 against Murtha:

This ad avoids the "racist" comments, but instead features Marines saying that Murtha, a veteran of the Vietnam War, smeared and betrayed American troops when he said civilians were killed in cold blood at Haditha: "I expected to be attacked by the insurgents -- not from Congressmen at home."

DCCC Airs New Ad Against Murtha's Opponent
The DCCC is now having to come to Murtha's defense, as well, running this new ad attacking Murtha's opponent William Russell:

The DCCC has not yet disclosed the exact size of the ad buy, but it will be more than the $84,000 that the NRCC has put into advertising on this race.

Read more »

On the trail today in North Carolina, Barack Obama will hit back at McCain's efforts to paint him as a closet socialist, tightening the "desperate McCain attacking to avoid real discussion of the economy" frame in a particularly memorable way.

From the prepared remarks:

We've tried it John McCain's way. We've tried it George Bush's way. It hasn't worked. Deep down, Senator McCain knows that, which is why his campaign said that "if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose."

That's why he's spending these last few days calling me every name in the book. I'm sorry to see my opponent sink so low. Lately, he's called me a socialist for wanting to roll back the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans so we can finally give tax relief to the middle class.

By the end of the week, he'll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in Kindergarten.

That kind of unforced mockery, even levity, tends to be a good indicator of genuine confidence in the outcome. Internals looking good, we wager. Full Obama excerpts after the jump.

Read more »

Still more polling, this time from the Associated Press, paints a bleak picture for McCain in at least six Bush states:

Barack Obama now leads in four states won by President Bush in 2004 and is essentially tied with John McCain in two other Republican red states, according to new AP-GfK battleground polling...

The polling shows Obama holding solid leads in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes....

In addition, Obama is tied with McCain in North Carolina and Florida, according to the AP-GfK polling.

To put this in perspective, consider that if Obama holds the Kerry states, and doesn't win either Ohio or Florida, he can still win by putting together a combination of two or three out of Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and North Carolina, three of which he's leading by sizable margins.

And that's not even including the multiple other Bush states he's leading in, such as New Mexico, Iowa, and Missouri. In short: Even without Ohio or Florida, getting the Kerry states, plus two or three of these seven -- CO, VA, NC, NM, IA, MO, NV -- makes Obama the next President.

Last Friday we reported here that McCain's Pennsylvania spokesperson fed local reporters a highly incendiary version of the hoax story about the attack on the McCain volunteer well before the facts were in, telling reporters outright that the "B" carved into the victim's face stood for Barack.

The McCain campaign has now denied the story on two separate occasions, faulting TPM's reporting on it.

"The liberal blog post" has "no basis in fact," a McCain spokesperson has now told Channel 4 in Pittsburgh, in a reference to our story. Before that, McCain national spokesperson Brian Rogers denied the story to MSNBC, claiming sloppy reporting by the Pennsylvania reporters.

Let's be as clear as possible here: Two separate news organizations in Pennsylvania are on record saying that McCain's Pennsylvania spokesperson gave them the incendiary version of the story.

Either those news organizations independently decided to lie and smear the McCain campaign in identical ways, or the McCain campaign is lying in its denials.

Let's go over what happened.

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In another sign of key movement in his direction, Barack Obama has dramatically improved his standing with three key constituencies in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to internal polling conducted by the AFL-CIO that an official shares with us.

AFL spokesperson Steve Smith says the union federation will release polling numbers later this morning that show jumps in those three states among gun owners, veterans, and retirees. Here's an advance look:

Among union gun owners, it's now 58-30 Obama, up from 48-41 in early September, a 21 point jump.

Among veterans we're at 58-32, up from 49-41 in early September, an 18 point jump.

And among retirees, we're now at 59-31, up from 52-37, a 14 point improvement, nearly double the margin.

Smith adds that AFL polling also shows big gains for union members overall in those three states:

In Ohio, Obama now has a 29-point advantage (61%-32%) over McCain among union members, an improvement of 16 points since August.

In Pennsylvania, Obama's support has risen 22 points to a 63%-27% advantage.

In Michigan, Obama now holds a commanding 68%-23% lead among union members, up 26 points.

If these numbers bear out, this is a pretty big deal, because union voters comprise a big chunk of the vote in Rust Belt states. Obama's apparent gains underscore yet again the big role union organizing in the swing states played in filling the vacuum left by the relative lack of outside group activity on the left this year.

The newest polls in the big three swing states paint a very clear picture: Obama seems to be pulling away in Ohio, and to a lesser extent in Florida, while his big lead in Pennsylvania is holding steady.

Here are all the latest polls from just the last few days, beginning with some new Quinnipiac polling out this morning:

Florida

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

Oct 27 Datamar: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 27 Suffolk: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 46%

Ohio

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 42%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 28 SurveyUSA: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 26 Univ. of Akron: Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 25 Univ. of Cincinnati: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 24 PPP (D): Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%

Pennsylvania

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 28 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 28 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Temple Univ.: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 26 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 25 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 24 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

McCain is trying to make a last stand in Pennsylvania, but there's really no evidence that it is in any way working at all. And without Pennsylvania, if he loses either Ohio or Florida, both of them Bush states, then the game is basically over.

Obama To Air TV Special Tonight
Barack Obama is set to air his half-hour TV special on most of the major networks tonight, an experiment in long-form TV advertising that hasn't been attempted since Ross Perot -- and not by any major-party nominee in many decades. This is in many ways a tribute to the massive fundraising ability of the Obama campaign that they could even think to attempt this, in contrast to Perot's self-financing.

McCain Ad: Obama Isn't Ready To Be President "Yet"
The new McCain ad, set to air nationally in order to pre-rebut Barack Obama's TV special tonight, rolls many of the campaign's attacks against Obama into one single spot for the home stretch -- that Obama is a vapid celebrity who will raise your taxes and isn't ready to lead the country in tumultuous times:

"The fact is Barack Obama's not ready -- yet," the announcer says. The use of the word "yet" seems rather odd here. The campaign seems to have hit a wall in their efforts to paint Obama as an extremist who shouldn't be trusted with the presidency at all, and are now saying that voters should wait a few more years if they really want to elect him president.

Obama Ad Hits McCain On The Economy -- And Palin
This new Obama ad, targeted at key states, uses text (but not an announcer) to remind viewers of all those quotes from John McCain where he admits he doesn't know much about the economy -- then proceeds to hammer him for picking an unqualified joke of a running mate to give him advice on these issues:

"I might have to rely on a vice president that I select," McCain is quoted in the on-screen text. "His choice?" we are then asked, followed by video of a winking Sarah Palin from the veep debate.

Obama In North Carolina, Then Campaign In Florida With Biden -- And Bill Clinton
Barack Obama is holding a 12 p.m. ET rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, a joint rally with Joe Biden at 4:30 p.m. ET in Sunrise, Florida, and then an 8:30 p.m. ET rally with none other than Bill Clinton in Kissimmee, Florida. This will be the first joint appearance by former president and the current nominee. Joe Biden is also holding a 10:15 a.m. ET solo rally in Jupiter, Florida. Michelle Obama is in North Carolina, with an early-afternoon speech before the North Carolina Baptist Convention, and a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Rocky Mount.

McCain In Florida, Palin In Ohio
John McCain is campaigning today in Florida, with a 10:15 a.m. rally in Miami, a 1:15 p.m. ET national security summit in Tampa, a 5:15 p.m. ET rally in Palm Beach, and will be appearing as a guest tonight on Larry King Live. Sarah Palin is campaigning in Ohio, with a 9:30 a.m. ET speech in Toledo on energy policy, an 11:15 a.m. ET rally in Bowling Green, and a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Chillicothe.

Report: Senate Dems Reviewing Plan To Oust Lieberman From Chairmanship
The Hill reports that the Senate Democrats are forming plans for committee assignments in what is expected to be a well-expanded majority -- and a notable change would be to kick Joe Lieberman from his chairmanship as punishment for campaigning against the Democratic Party this year. Such a decision would have a built-in tradeoff, though, as Lieberman would be less likely to vote with Dems on crucial cloture votes.

Is it possible that John McCain could lose his home state of Arizona, which has only voted Democratic once in the last 50 years? A new poll from Arizona State University puts McCain ahead, but also suggests that an Obama win is not at all out of the question.

The numbers: McCain 46%, Obama 44%, within the ±3% margin of error. The previous ASU poll from a month ago put McCain up 45%-38%.

Other recent polling has shown a close race, too. Rasmussen has McCain up 51%-46%, down from a 59%-38% lead a month ago.

McCain should still be seen as the favorite to win Arizona, but it's certainly not a good sign for him that any poll even has it close right now.

The McCain campaign is up with two radio ads in West Virginia, a state that went for George W. Bush by 13 points in 2004, according to an employee at one of the state's major news stations.

One ad attacks Obama for Joe Biden's recent "clean coal" remarks, and the other hits Obama over his "bitter" comments.

Previously, on the GOP side, only the RNC was spending money on ads in West Virginia. That the McCain camp is now spending on ads in the state is yet another sign that the broadening map is putting McCain on defense in multiple states that went for Bush last time, sometimes by significant margins, and forcing him to spend money in them with time running out.

The employee, who's with WCHS in Charleston, tells us that McCain is running this spot on the station geared specifically to West Virginia that attacks Obama on coal, charging that while clean coal means "thousands of jobs" for West Virginians, it's opposed by "Obama, Biden, and their liberal allies":

The WCHS employee also confirms that the West Virginia station is running another McCain ad that stars Hank Williams, Jr., hitting Obama over the "bitter" line, a spot that had only been previously heard in Montana.

"When Barack Obama said folks like you and me were bitter, and clinging to religion, I knew he just doesn't understand small town America," the ad says. "We love our God, and we love our guns, 'specially handed down from our grandfathers. And we resent it when liberals like Obama question our way of life. Don't be bitter, vote McCain."

GOP Takes Out Big Loan For Home Stretch
The RNC has taken out a $5 million loan in the home stretch of the campaign to give to the NRSC and Senate candidates, joining other party committees that have made the same decision in order to maximize gains -- or in this case, minimize losses -- on Election Day. The party's big challenge will be to avoid a nine-seat loss that would give the Dems a filibuster-proof majority, but even a Dem majority that came close to that would be highly damaging for the GOP.

Right-Wing Celebrities (Sort Of) To Minnesota: We Apologize For Franken
The new NRSC ad against Al Franken features a rather novel gimmick in their attempt to paint Franken as an untouchable Hollywood celebrity. In this ad, right-wing Hollywood B-listers apologize to Minnesota for the way Franken has given their profession a bad name:

Was Dennis Miller not available? In all seriousness, Franken has by now overcome some of the problems from his goofy comedy image that dogged his campaign for quite a while. If the GOP is to defeat him now that he's taken a narrow lead in most polls, they'll need to win Minnesotans over on substantive issues. Oh, wait a minute...

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ABC, which is the only one of the networks that won't air Barack Obama's unusual 30-minute special during prime-time tomorrow, has taken a bit of a swipe at Obama and told its viewers not to watch Obama's appearance.

A source sends over some video he took of an ABC ad that the network has now aired for its program "Pushing Daisies," which airs tomorrow night at 8:00 P.M., the same time as Obama's special. The ad urges viewers to ignore the other networks' programming at that time:

"Wednesday, America, you have a choice," ABC's ad says. "Get political with the other networks, or enjoy the Emmy-winning drama full of surprising revelations: ABC's `Pushing Daisies."

At the mention of getting "political with the other networks" someone intercedes with an expression of disgust: "Please."

ABC lost its chance to air Obama's special tomorrow because it delayed too long in answering the Obama campaign's request to buy the air time.

As swipes go, it's a pretty light-hearted one. But telling viewers dismissively not to watch one of the the two candidates make his case less than a week before the election seems like a pretty dodgy place for a network to go.

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. John McCain has chipped away slightly at Barack Obama's lead in today's polls, but Obama is still ahead and remains at over 50% support:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.6%-44.4%, a lead of 6.2 points, compared to the 51.2%-44.0% Obama lead from yesterday.

Citizens United, the conservative group headed by notorious Whitewater scandalmonger David Bossie, is distributing hundreds of thousands of DVDs attacking Barack Obama's associations with Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers in newspapers in Ohio, Nevada, and Florida this week, a group spokesperson confirms to us.

A reader in Ohio reports to us that she received a copy of the DVD, called "Hype: The Obama Effect," in her copy of the Columbus Dispatch this morning.

We checked in with Citizens United spokesperson Will Holley, who confirmed to us that the DVD was distributed in the Dispatch today, and will be disseminated in copies of the Cincinatti Enquirer and Plain Dealer tomorrow, followed by the Palm Beach Post and the Los Vegas Review Journal on Friday.

The DVD, a trailer of which is here, features media figures fawning over Obama and conservative commentators mocking them over their affection for the Illinois Senator, as well as footage of select Wright rantings. It also discusses Ayers and Tony Rezko, and warns viewers that there's more to know about Obama's shadowy ideology and associations than he has let on.

"He is representative of the ultimate left of the Democratic party," Dick Morris says of Obama in the DVD.

Holley said that "hundreds of thousands" of copies of the DVD would flood these states via these papers by week's end, but he declined to be more specific.

Holley said his group was prohibited from putting the content in TV ads by McCain-Feingold. "We had to do a little out-of-the-box thinking to market this," he said.

Florida governor and leading McCain surrogate Charlie Crist signs an executive order today extending the early voting hours in this crucial swing state where Obama is giving McCain the fight of his life:

Effective immediately, early voting sites will be open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m., through Friday, October 31, 2008, and for a total of 12 hours between 7:00 a.m. on Saturday, November 1, and 7:00 p.m. on Sunday, November 2, 2008.

Of the 2.1 million Florida voters who have already voted, 45% have been registered Dems and 40% have been Republicans.

So this extension, which Crist did in consultation with other local officials, is certainly no favor to McCain from Crist, who's reportedly been at odds with the McCain campaign for various reasons.

The McCain campaign apparently thinks you don't have a very long memory -- or much regard for the truth. It has just released what it's billing as a new ad attacking Obama on Iran -- even though the McCain camp already put out the same ad back in August, only to see it widely exposed as deeply dishonest.

Here's the "new" spot:

The narrator in this spot, which is timed to a now-denied report in Haaretz claiming that the French president doesn't like Obama's Iran policies, says: "Obama says Iran is a 'tiny' country. 'Doesn't pose a serious threat.' Terrorism? Destroying Israel? Those aren't serious threats?"

But as we and others noted in August when this new ad was released the last time, by juxtaposing a truncated Obama quote with the words "terrorism" and "destroying Israel," the ad badly distorts Obama's actual words, as well as his position on Iran in general.

The full Obama quote that this ad butchers was delivered by Obama on May 18, 2008, and you can read it right here. Obama said: "Iran, Cuba, Venezuela -- these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don't pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us."

So obviously, Obama didn't say that Iran doesn't pose any serious threat, as McCain's ad pretends. Rather, he clearly said that Iran doesn't pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us.

What's more, Obama didn't simply say Iran was "tiny," as the ad suggests, in an effort to con you into believing that Obama sees Iran as no threat at all. Rather, he said it was tiny compared to the Soviet Union.

These serious distortions are also at odds with Obama's actual positions on Iran. Obama has repeatedly said Iran is a threat to Israel, and has also clearly said that Iran is a threat in the broader sense that its "support for terrorism" has "increased." You can read those real-world Obama quotes right here.

Here's another way to assess the state of the race right now: We've drawn up a chart comparing the Real Clear Politics averages right now in 13 core battleground states with the RCP averages in the same states from right before the 2004 election.

The results are startling. Obama is currently leading in eight swing states that Bush led in just before Election Day 2004, in several cases by big margins, and he's leading in all of the selected battleground states except for West Virginia. Take a look:

	RCP 2004	Result 2004	RCP Now
Colorado	Bush +5.2	Bush +4.7	Obama +6.2
Florida	Bush +0.6	Bush +5.0	Obama +2.7
Iowa	Bush +0.3	Bush +0.7	Obama +11.4
Michigan	Kerry +3.5	Kerry +3.4	Obama +17.0
Minnesota	Kerry +3.2	Kerry +3.5	Obama +11.3
Missouri	Bush +4.2	Bush +7.2	Obama +0.6
Nevada	Bush +6.3	Bush +2.6	Obama +3.5
New Hampshire	Kerry +1.0	Kerry +1.3	Obama +7.7
New Mexico	Bush +1.4	Bush +0.7	Obama +8.4
Ohio	Bush +2.1	Bush +2.1	Obama +6.3
Pennsylvania	Kerry +0.9	Kerry +2.5	Obama +10.8
West Virginia	Bush +8.5	Bush +12.9	McCain +8.0
Wisconsin	Bush +0.9	Kerry +0.4	Obama +10.6

Obama is winning by sizable margins in Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin, all states Bush led in four years ago. He's winning by slimmer margins in Florida, Missouri, and Nevada, also states where Bush led.

Also noteworthy: In every state but one -- Wisconsin -- the RCP average just before the election was predictive of the final outcome.

And get this: Obama is also competitive, or even winning, in an additional half-dozen states that RCP didn't even bother calculating the average of four years ago. Obama is winning in Virginia and holds a slight edge in North Carolina; he's roughly tied with McCain in Indiana; and he's even within striking distance in Montana and North Dakota.

Wow.

(Ed. Note: RCP doesn't have an archive of exactly what their averages were calculated as being one week before the election, the equivalent point to where we are now. That said, the raw poll data did not significantly change for most of the individual states during that final week in 2004.)

The Huffington Post gets a hold of a new radio spot that the McCain campaign and Republican National Committee are airing in, of all places, Montana:

"Hello, I'm Hank Williams, Jr. When Barack Obama said folks like you and me were bitter, and clinging to religion, I knew he just doesn't understand small town America. We love our God, and we love our guns, 'specially handed down from our grandfathers. And we resent it when liberals like Obama question our way of life. Don't be bitter. Vote McCain."

The ad then rather abruptly veers into an attack on Congressional liberals over taxes.

Meanwhile, a second RNC spot -- at same link above -- hits Obama on taxes with a line painting Obama as a risky unknown: "Just as you suspected, Barack Obama's wrong for you."

Whatever. The Repubs have been forced to run ads in Montana. That's all that matters here.

In another sign that more and more GOPers are presuming an Obama victory, top McCain surrogate Mitt Romney confesses as much in a fundraising email he blasted out on behalf of GOP Senator Mitch McConnell.

In his email, Romney warns against electing McConnell's Dem challenger, Bruce Lunsford, as follows:

His opponent was handpicked by Chuck Schumer and will be a reliable vote for the Democrats. And as we face the very real possibility of an Obama presidency, that's the last thing we need.

It's more critical than ever that we have a strong Republican leader to act as a "firewall" against bad legislation, tax increases, and increased spending.

You're seeing more and more of this. Today the NRSC released an ad for embattled GOP Senator Gordon Smith that presumes an Obama victory by warning against "one party rule" in Washington.

McCain, too, has been arguing that he should be elected President in order to counter-balance the Dem Congress, which presumes Dems will win in the Congressional races, or at least that the GOP is doomed to remain in the minority. As one Dem joked to us recently: "Republicans launch new campaign theme: All the rest of us are gonna lose, so elect me."

Here's a stunning finding buried in the new Pew poll: Barack Obama is now narrowly leading John McCain among voters in the 10 battleground states that voted for George W. Bush in 2004.

The poll finds that among those voters, Obama is now up 47%-43%, which is within the margin of error, but still noteworthy. In the past few weeks Obama has steadily gained, and now passed, McCain among these voters.

A week ago, according to the poll's internals, McCain led among these red battleground state voters by seven points, 49%-42%. Two weeks ago McCain led among them by 10 points, 51%-41%.

No wonder McCain is transferring ad spending out of the blue states and into red ones and spending much of his final campaign time in the Bush states. He's trying to staunch the red bleeding.

Separately, the poll also finds that Obama is leading McCain by 16 points (52%-36%) among registered voters overall, and by 19 points (53%-34%) among the 15% of respondents who say they've already voted.

Here's today's run-down of the Congressional races:

GOP Releases Excerpt From The Kentucky Voice Recorder
The Kentucky voice-recorder saga -- involving a criminal complaint by the NRSC that the campaign of Dem Senate candidate Bruce Lunsford allegedly erased content from a voice recorder they secretly planted at his podium -- just keeps getting weirder. The NRSC has released this piece of audio recovered from the recorder after its return, of what appears to be an angry Lunsford telling his staffers not to give the recorder back:

This has got to be one of the most bizarre allegations of a dirty trick ever: That a campaign secretly planted a bug on an opposing candidate, then complained when the bug was not initially returned and may have been erased.

Murtha's Opponent Blasts Him On Racist/Redneck Comments
Check out this new ad from William Russell, the GOP candidate against Jack Murtha, hammering Murtha for referring to his western Pennsylvania constituents as rednecks and racists:

Murtha is usually a safe bet for re-election, but this gaffe may have landed him in serious trouble. A recent Susquehanna poll shows Murtha just edging out Russell 46%-41%. A fun part of this ad is its use of a computer interface to show videos of Murtha -- as if to say that the people of western Pennsylvania do in fact know how to read and use a computer.

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On the trail right now in Pennsylvania, John McCain is keeping up with his efforts to paint Barack Obama as a closet socialist, seizing again on that 2001 interview in which Obama allegedly called for the state to seize the assets of hard-working Americans and redistribute the booty to the poor and lazy.

From McCain's prepared remarks:

Senator Obama is running to be Redistributionist in Chief. I'm running to be Commander in Chief. Senator Obama is running to spread the wealth. I'm running to create more wealth. Senator Obama is running to punish the successful. I'm running to make everyone successful.

Not to belabor the point, but unless McCain plans to disband the entire Federal government and amend the Constitution to ensure that it can never gear up again, he too is running for the post of "redistributionist in chief." If McCain doesn't think the job of President entails drawing up budgets that determine how the citizenry's tax money should be spent, he should say so. It would certainly be newsworthy.

Again: This is yet another silly stunt from a candidate who is suffering badly from what might be called the "Seriousness Gap" between himself and his opponent. I'd really be interested to see detailed polling on whether the electorate is buying the argument that Obama harbors the shadowy socialist and redistributionist leanings that McCain and Sarah Palin are alleging.

Full McCain remarks after the jump.

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Over at TNR's The Plank, there's some more good push-back against John McCain's ridiculous "Barack the redistributor" attacks yesterday over that 2001 interview Barack Obama gave in which he allegedly called for the mass transfer of wealth from hard-working Americans to lazy poor people.

Here's Jonathan Chait:

Need I point out that literally having every any government at all involves taking somebody's money and giving it to somebody else? Even the more restrivtive definition of redistribution -- using government to create a less unequal distribution of wealth -- has been going on for a century. If McCain is really opposed to redistribution, then that means he thinks the rich should get back a dollar in spending for every dollar they pay in taxes.

Obama adviser Cass Sunstein also has a good takedown.

It's ridiculous, of course, to even be debating the substance of McCain's arguments. Unless McCain's plan upon taking office is to disband the entire Federal government and fire himself, McCain is a redistributionist, too.

The real significance of this episode is that it's yet another reminder of just how out of touch with the public mood McCain the Redistributor is. From the transparently bogus campaign suspension to the selection of Palin to the Joe the Plumber nonsense to this latest, McCain's campaign has been little more than a series of gimmicks that have revealed him to be fundamentally unseriousness in a way that's completely at odds with the apparent yearnings of the public at this current juncture.

Obama, by contrast, has consistently projected a level of seriousness in sync with the public mood, the challenges ahead, and the gravity of this historical moment.

Call it the Seriousness Gap. It's a key reason Obama is winning.

New McCain Ad: He's For "Workin' Joes"
The new McCain ad, set to air in targeted states, contrasts the two candidates and attacks Obama on the McCain campaign's apparent closing issue of wealth redistribution:

"For higher taxes," the announcer says of Obama, then declaring that McCain is "for workin' Joes." That's right -- the McCain campaign is dropping the G's in its slogans, including in the on-screen text.

The GOP's Bizarre Spending
The Huffington Post does a comprehensive review of the RNC and McCain campaign's finance reports and finds a bunch of expenditures every bit as odd as the spending on Sarah Palin's wardrobe. The GOP laid out for everything from art restoration to elephant-shaped shrubbery to lunches for Karl Rove.

Obama In Pennsylvania and Virginia; Biden In Florida; Michelle In Colorado
Barack Obama is holding a morning rally in Chester, Pennsylvania, a 5:15 p.m. ET rally in Harrisonburg, Virginia, and a 9:30 p.m. ET rally in Norfolk, Virginia. Joe Biden is campaigning in Florida, with an 11 a.m. ET rally in Ocala and a 4:30 p.m. ET rally in Melbourne. Michelle Obama is holding a 6:30 p.m. ET rally in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

GOP Ticket Focused On Pennsylvania Today; McCain Also In North Carolina
John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending a lot of time today in Pennsylvania, the state that has become the linchpin of their new strategy -- but where the polls still show them far behind. The two of them have a joint rally at 10 a.m. ET in Hershey, then a joint rally at 1:15 p.m. ET in Quakertown, followed by Palin solo rallies at 5:15 p.m. ET in Shippensburg and at 9 p.m. ET in University Park. John McCain also has a solo rally at 5:30 p.m. ET in Fayetteville, North Carolina.

Poll: Obama Ahead in Ohio, Way Up On Early Votes
A new SurveyUSA poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-45% lead in Ohio, with a ±3.9% margin of error. The key number from the internals is that 22% of the likely electorate has already voted, and they've gone for Obama by a 56%-39% margin, with the two candidates tied 47%-47% among the remaining 78%.

Obama Ad: In A Crisis, "He's Got Steel In His Spine"
The Obama campaign has this new ad running under the radar, firing back on the controversy surrounding Joe Biden's remarks that the next president will be tested in a crisis, and accusing the McCain campaign of selectively editing the tape:

"But here's what Biden actually said about Barack Obama," the announcer said, followed by audio of Biden: "They're gonna find out this guy's got steel in his spine."

New NRA Ad Stars Chuck Norris
This new NRA ad, targeted at ten battleground states, features the one and only Chuck Norris warning voters that certain politicians just say they're for gun rights, but they're really just protecting criminals:

"If some thug breaks into my home, I could use my roundhouse kick," the World's Greatest Human says. "But I'd prefer he look down the barrel of my gun."

The new set of Rasmussen swing-state polls shows Barack Obama continuing to lead in Colorado and Virginia, and running close with John McCain in a few other battlegrounds:

• Colorado: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead last week. Most recent polls have given Obama a lead of about this much or even more, and the state should be considered as leaning towards Obama.

• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-48% McCain edge last week. Other polls show a tight race here, and it should be seen as a real toss-up with a possible slight Obama lean.

• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead last week. This state is a true toss-up.

• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to a 50%-48% McCain lead from late last week. This formerly reliably-red state is also a genuine toss-up now, with other polls giving a similarly narrow lead to either candidate.

• Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, compared to a 49%-47% McCain lead last week. Most of the recent polls give Obama a lead about in line with this one.

• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 54%-44% Obama lead from last week. Most other recent polls have Obama ahead by a much bigger margin -- but they all agree that he is ahead.

These polls all have a ±3% margin of error.

All six of these states went for George W. Bush twice, and combined they have a total of 95 electoral votes.

It's hard to overstate just how damaging it would be for John McCain if he loses either Colorado or Virginia, let alone both. With Obama on track for solid wins in Iowa and New Mexico, both Bush 2004 states, all he has to do is win Colorado or Virginia plus all the Kerry states. At that point, McCain will have to sweep all of the remaining Bush states and snatch away Pennsylvania -- where the polls right now have him way behind.

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races;

NRSC's New Mailer Invites Children To Read About Pornography, Rape
The NRSC has this new mailer against Al Franken, presented in the format of a goofy children's book about what an obscene human being Franken is. The mailer invites unsuspecting children to open the pages, and then read about pornography and rape:

To his credit, GOP Sen. Norm Coleman has distanced himself from this one. "A piece of direct mail, dealing with this subject matter, that could be viewed as a comic book by children is something that is just not acceptable," Coleman wrote in a letter to NRSC chairman John Ensign. "I'm astonished that anyone would have used such poor judgment."

Poll: GOP Sen. Smith Already Losing Badly With Half The Vote In
The new SurveyUSA poll shows Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) trailing Democrat Jeff Merkley by a 49%-42% margin -- and the internals are even worse. Half of the voters have already turned in their ballot, the poll says, and this group has given Merkley a 51%-41% win. Time is running out for Smith to get the landslide win among the remaining voters that he would need in order to pull of a victory.

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Some three dozen workers at a telemarketing call center in Indiana walked off the job rather than read an incendiary McCain campaign script attacking Barack Obama, according to two workers at the center and one of their parents.

Nina Williams, a stay-at-home mom in Lake County, Indiana, tells us that her daughter recently called her from her job at the center, upset that she had been asked to read a script attacking Obama for being "dangerously weak on crime," "coddling criminals," and for voting against "protecting children from danger."

Williams' daughter told her that up to 40 of her co-workers had refused to read the script, and had left the call center after supervisors told them that they would have to either read the call or leave, Williams says. The call center is called Americall, and it's located in Hobart, IN.

"They walked out," Williams says of her daughter and her co-workers, adding that they weren't fired but willingly sacrificed pay rather than read the lines. "They were told [by supervisors], `If you all leave, you're not gonna get paid for the rest of the day."

The daughter, who wanted her name withheld fearing retribution from her employer, confirmed the story to us. "It was like at least 40 people," the daughter said. "People thought the script was nasty and they didn't wanna read it."

A second worker at the call center confirmed the episode, saying that "at least 30" workers had walked out after refusing to read the script.

"We were asked to read something saying [Obama and Democrats] were against protecting children from danger," this worker said. "I wouldn't do it. A lot of people left. They thought it was disgusting."

This worker, too, confirmed sacrificing pay to walk out, saying her supervisor told her: "If you don't wanna phone it you can just go home for the day."

The script coincided with this robo-slime call running in other states, but because robocalling is illegal in Indiana it was being read by call center workers.

Representatives at Americall in Indiana, and at the company's corporate headquarters in Naperville, Illinois, didn't return calls for comment.

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. John McCain has picked up some of the undecided vote, but Barack Obama's support is steady and he remains well ahead nationally:

• Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.6% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-40% Obama lead yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.2%-44.0%, a lead of 7.2 points, compared to the 51.2%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.

The big news today in the Alaska Senate race -- that Sen. Ted Stevens (R) was convicted on all counts in his corruption trial, and now faces up to five years in prison -- might just guarantee a huge Democratic pickup in this deep-red state next week.

Stevens' initially took a huge dive in the polls after his indictment over the Summer, falling behind Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) by about 20 points. As the controversy settled down and Stevens vowed to beat the charges at trial, his numbers began inching up again -- and a poll last week from local pollster Ivan Moore put him behind Begich by only one point.

But with Stevens now officially a convicted felon, any good will he built up with voters will probably be falling away very quickly. Over the next eight days, voters are likely to swing heavily to Begich in a state that hasn't elected a Dem to federal office since 1974. And this also puts the Democrats one step closer to that magic number of 60 seats.

Meanwhile, the Alaska Dems have put out this statement, calling upon Stevens to resign:

"Senator Stevens' felony convictions are very serious and he should immediately resign from the United States Senate. He knew what he was doing was wrong, but he did it anyway and lied to Alaskans about it. Alaskans deserve better from their public officials. It's time for us to elect an ethical and honest Senator who will move this state forward."

In all likelihood, the Dems don't have too much to worry about -- the voters might be getting rid of Stevens no matter what he decides to do.

A new Suffolk poll of Florida, which shows Barack Obama ahead 49%-44%, has another statistic that could affect the outcome on Election Day: Among early voters, Obama is ahead by a 60%-40% margin.

Early voting has become a big thing in Florida, and current statistics show that enough early votes have already been cast to equal more than a quarter of the total votes that were cast in 2004. So Obama has already banked a good lead in a major swing state, if this poll is accurate.

Bear in mind, it's still possible to win the early votes but lose overall -- mainly because enthusiastic Obama supporters show up to vote early, but they would have otherwise voted on Election Day if the option hadn't been available. For example, Obama won the early votes in the Texas primary in March, but Hillary Clinton won on Primary Day itself by a wide enough margin to overcome the deficit.

Barack Obama just wrapped up his big closing argument speech in Canton, Ohio, and his remarks drive home one of the under-appreciated aspects of this amazing campaign: The similarities between Obama and Bill Clinton, and between their respective readings of the electorates each man sought to win over.

The speech shows, again, that Obama rivals (and perhaps surpasses) Bill as one of the great public communicators of the last few decades. But their similarities run deeper. Obama's success -- like Bill's -- is rooted in an uncanny sense of the electorate's mood, and of what it's looking for in its next leader. The likenesses were unmistakable today.

In 1992, Bill -- though he was running against a popular incumbent who'd just prosecuted a successful war -- sensed a widespread drift among voters that was only partly rooted in economic doldrums. Crucially, Bill also sensed that the electorate was looking for a clear signal from its next President on just how the nation would be moved from the 20th Century to the 21st at a time of rapid global change.

As his speech makes clear, Obama's reading of the electorate is in some ways very similar today to Bill's read 16 years ago.

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Three new polls have now found Barack Obama with a clear and decisive lead in Virginia, bringing him one crucial step closer to a majority in the Electoral College:

• SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, outside of the ±3.9% margin of error, not significantly different from a 53%-43% Obama lead from three weeks ago. Nine percent of respondents have already voted, giving Obama a 67%-30% majority, and he's ahead 50%-44% among the remaining 91% of likely voters.

• Zogby: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. There is no other recent Zogby phone poll for comparison.

• Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.5% margin of error, compared to a 49%-46% Obama lead a month ago.

The early-vote number from SurveyUSA shows just what a hole John McCain is in. If he loses the early vote in a given state, he has to not only win the vote on Election Day, but win it by a large enough majority to overcome his early-vote deficit.

If John McCain can't turn things around in Virginia, then he really has to sweep the big three swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania if he is to have any hope of winning. And the public polls in Pennsylvania haven't pointed towards any real chance of such a strategy working.

The McCain campaign's efforts to portray Barack Obama as a closet socialist took a turn into the burlesque today, with the McCain camp falsely claiming that in a seven year old interview, Obama said that it was a "tragedy" that the Supreme Court hadn't redistributed wealth away from hard-working Americans.

The Obama interview in question is being pushed relentlessly today by the wingnuts, who are circulating this audio of it.

The McCain campaign just blasted out a quote from senior economics adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin hammering Obama. In the interview, Holtz-Eakin claimed, "Obama expressed his regret that the Supreme Court hadn't been more 'radical' and described as a 'tragedy' the Court's refusal to take up 'the issues of redistribution of wealth.'"

Holtz-Eakin asserted that this proves that Obama wants to take money "away from people who work for it" and give it to people "Obama believes deserves it." Apparently McCain himself is going to pick up this cudgel on the trail today, too.

But as usual, this latest attack rests on a complete falsehood.

If you look at Obama's full quote -- which you can read right here -- it's very clear that Obama was not directly "regretting" the failure of the court to be "radical." Rather, he was saying that the court's failure to take up redistributive issues proved that it wasn't as "radical" as some have claimed. The "radical" line was clearly a dispassionate claim about the reality of history.

What's more, take a look at the operative part of Obama's quote that includes the "tragedy" line:

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New GOP Ad: Al Franken "Writes Pornography," "Laughs At The Disabled"
The NRSC, facing more poll data showing Al Franken taking the lead in Minnesota, is pulling out all the stops with their new ad against Franken's dirty humor:

Both the NRSC and the Coleman campaign have been attacking Franken's toilet-humor for months now, but Franken has nevertheless managed to take the lead in most of the recent polls. This increase in the intensity of the attack does come off as desperate, if it's meant to be a real closing argument against Franken and the Democrats.

Coleman Ad: I Work Really Hard For You!
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who is trying to keep it positive in his own new ads, has this new one-minute ad in which the incumbent seems to be begging Minnesotans to realize how hard he works for them:

"In times as thought as this, it's really easy to kind of be on the sidelines and cast stones, and say, you know 'This is the problem and that's the problem," Coleman says. "I think people know we've got problems, but I think what they're looking for is solutions."

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Chuck Todd and the gang at MSNBC's First Read become the latest electoral-vote crunchers to decree that Barack Obama has crossed the 270 threshold without any of their designated toss-up states:

After moving the battlegrounds of Colorado and Virginia from Toss-up to Lean Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee now has crossed the 270 Electoral Vote threshold in NBC's electoral map. One week before the election, Obama leads McCain 286-163, up from his 264-163 advantage a week ago. As we pointed out on Friday, the significance of moving Colorado and Virginia into Obama's column is this: If Obama wins those two states, plus Nevada, he can still get to 270 -- even if he loses Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

And that's a pretty huge "if," given that Obama has double-digit leads in Pennsylvania and is narrowly ahead of McCain in Florida and Ohio in many polls.

First Read's calculation is yet another reminder why today's WaPo poll finding Obama up by eight in Virginia is such a big deal. If Obama can snatch Virginia, which is increasingly likely, it means McCain will have to sweep the big three battlegrounds, requiring a win Pennsylvania, in order to still have any hope at all of winning. And that just isn't going to happen.

Missouri is a key state to watch because it voted twice for Bush, with a seven-point margin in 2004, and has a historic status as the poster-child for swing states -- it only voted for the loser once in the past 100 years. And today we have the fourth poll in a row showing that the state is a dead-heat and could easily go either way this time:

• SurveyUSA, released this morning: Obama 48%, McCain 48%, compared to a 51%-43% Obama lead two weeks ago.

• Zogby, released this morning: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. There is no other recent Zogby phone poll here for comparison.

• Research 2000, released yesterday: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, with a ±3.5% margin of error, compared to a 47%-46% McCain edge a month ago.

• Mason-Dixon, released yesterday: McCain 46%, Obama 45%, with a ±4% margin of error. There is no prior Mason-Dixon poll here for comparison.

This state was thought to be trending more and more Republican until the 2006 Senate win by Democrat Claire McCaskill, and the Dems are also expected to win the open GOP-held gubernatorial race in a landslide this year.

A new round of Zogby polls shows Barack Obama ahead in six states that George W. Bush won twice, with McCain only leading in two out of the eight polled:

• Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.

• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.

• Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.

• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

• North Carolina: Obama 50%, McCain 46%.

• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (Obama 47.2%, McCain 46.9%).

• Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 44%.

• West Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.

The six states where Obama is ahead in this set have a combined total of 91 electoral votes. The polls all have a margin of error of ±4.1%.

Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the vast majority of their remaining time in red states, a sign that they know they are playing on defense.

Obama To Deliver "Closing Argument" Speech
Barack Obama is rolling out his "closing argument" speech today, with the rhetorical points he will stress for the remainder of the campaign. There won't be any great substantive change, but this line from the prepared remarks, condemning Republican culture-war politics, jumps out in the way it hearkens back to his 2004 convention speech: "In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope."

Obama In Ohio And Pennsylvania; Biden In North Carolina And Florida
Barack Obama is holding a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Canton, Ohio, at which he will roll out his "closing argument" stump speech, followed by a 3 p.m. ET rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Joe Biden is holding a 10 a.m. ET rally in Greenville, North Carolina, a 2:15 p.m. ET rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, and a 7:30 p.m. ET rally in New Port Richey, Florida.

Michelle Obama On The Tonight Show, And Rallying In Nevada
Michelle Obama is taping an appearance for tonight on The Tonight Show, and will then be holding a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, beginning at at 9:15 p.m. local time (that is, a quarter after midnight ET).

McCain In Ohio And Pennsylvania; Palin In Virginia
John McCain is holding a 2:30 p.m. ET rally in Dayton, Ohio, and a 6:30 p.m. ET rally in Pottsville, Pennsylvania. Sarah Palin is touring through Virginia today, with a 10 a.m. ET rally in Leesburg, a 1 p.m. ET rally in Fredericksburg, and a 6:45 p.m. ET rally in Salem.

GOP Sen. Kyl: Unfortunately, McCain Will Probably Lose
Sen. Jon Kyl, John McCain's fellow Republican Senator from Arizona, is openly voicing pessimism about McCain's chances next Tuesday. "Unfortunately, I think John McCain might be added to that long list of Arizonans who ran for president but were never elected," Kyl told the Arizona Daily Star.

Poll: Obama Ahead By Eight In Virginia
A new Washington Post poll gives Barack Obama a 52%-44% lead in Virginia, up from a 49%-46% lead a month ago. There now seems to be a strong consensus in the polls that Obama has a solid lead in a state that hasn't voted Democratic since the 1964 LBJ landslide.

Palin: The Clothes Are Like The Stage And Lighting
At a rally yesterday in Tampa, Sarah Palin explained that the story about her expensive campaign wardrobe was "ridiculous," saying the clothes are not her property and are like the stage and the lighting -- after the rally is over, it all goes back to the RNC to dispose of. This does invite an interesting question: How much else about Palin is just so much stagecraft?

The Obama campaign announces that he will deliver his closing argument speech tomorrow in Canton, Ohio. From the release:

In his speech, Senator Obama will tell voters that after twenty-one months and three debates, Senator McCain still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing he'd do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy. Obama will ask Americans to help him change this country, and say that in just one week, they can choose an economy that rewards work and creates new jobs and fuels prosperity from the bottom-up, they can choose to invest in health care for our families and education for our kids and renewable energy for our future, and they can choose hope over fear, unity over division and the promise of change over the power of the status quo.

It's pretty much the same message as it's been all along, a testament to the Democrat's ability to hew to a kind of message discipline that in recent years has been the province of the GOP and has eluded Dems. Not this time.

Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama is still way ahead nationally, with his overall lead dipping just slightly from yesterday:

• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, compared to a 53%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% Obama lead yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 51%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.2%-43.1%, a lead of 8.1 points, compared to the 51.6%-42.8% Obama lead from yesterday.

An interesting pattern now seems to be coming from Joe Lieberman: He is now reminding us all how much he respects Barack Obama, even if he's for John McCain this time around.

In a conference call with Connecticut reporters on Friday, Lieberman bristled at the media's coverage of the McCain campaign's negativity. "You guys are going down a road, you have contributed to the demeaning of our politics by this kind of focus," Lieberman said. "I mean, give me a break. Have any of you been out listening to me?"

"When I go out, I say, 'I have a lot of respect for Sen. Obama. He's bright. He's eloquent.' Someday, I might even support him for president," Lieberman told a conference call of Connecticut reporters. "But now in the midst of this series of crises, John McCain is simply so much better prepared that that's who I am proud to support."

Lieberman also said that if McCain doesn't, "I'm going to do everything I can to be bringing people ... together across party lines to support the new president so he can succeed."

This seems like a serious change of pace, to say the least, for Lieberman to be talking about how much he likes Obama and how he could potentially support him for president down the road. Indeed, it invites questions about what might have prompted Lieberman's change of tone.

For context, it's worth looking at some other things Joe has said this campaign season:

• In an interview with the right-wing site NewsMax a little over two weeks ago, Lieberman endorsed GOP attacks against Obama over Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright: "And one of the things you want to know is who have they associated with, because it may help you know who they'll listen to when they get into office."

• In the same interview, he left the door open on switching parties: "Well, I've thought about it. But this term is about over, so i'll take up this question again."

• During his speech at the Republican Convention, Lieberman repeated the smear that Obama "was voting to cut off funding for our troops on the ground."

• While campaigning for McCain back in August, Lieberman said that Obama does not "put the country first."

So the big question here, really, is what happened in the last few weeks that turned Obama from someone who doesn't put the country first, might listen to anti-American characters when he's in office, and wants to cut off resources for American troops, into someone who Lieberman respects and could support for president down the road?

McCain: I'm Not Bush
Appearing this morning on Meet The Press, John McCain reiterated his "I am not George Bush" line. "So do we share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course," McCain explained "But I've, I've stood up against my party, not just President Bush, but others."

Obama Seizes On "Common Philosophy" Remark
At a rally today in Denver, Barack Obama will go after John McCain's concession on Meet The Press that he and President Bush share a common philosophy. "But then, just this morning, Senator McCain said that he and President Bush - 'share a common philosophy,'" Obama will say, according to prepared remarks. "That's right, Colorado. I guess that was John McCain finally giving us a little straight talk, and owning up to the fact that he and George Bush actually have a whole lot in common."

Obama In Colorado
Barack Obama is campaigning in Colorado today, with a 1:30 p.m. ET rally in Denver, and a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Forth Collins. Joe Biden is off the campaign trail today.

McCain In Iowa And Ohio, Palin In Florida And North Carolina
John McCain is holding a 2 p.m. ET rally in Cedar Falls, Iowa, a 5:30 p.m. ET rally in Zanesville, Ohio, and a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Lancaster Ohio. Sarah Palin has a 12 p.m. ET rally in Tampa, Florida, a 3 p.m. ET rally in Kissimmee, Florida, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Asheville, North Carolina.

Polls: Obama Way Ahead In Iowa
Two new polls of Iowa raise doubts as to whether McCain appearance today in the state is really the best use of his time. From Research 2000: Obama 54%, McCain 39%. And from Mason-Dixon: Obama 51%, McCain 40%.

Poll: Obama Also Way Ahead In New Hampshire
A new University of New Hampshire poll gives Barack Obama a 54%-39% lead in New Hampshire, and Democrats sweeping all the down-ticket races there this year. A caveat: Obama has been infamously burned by New Hampshire polls before, so the state's Dems should be anything but complacent.

Obama: McCain Attacking Bush "Like Robin Getting Mad At Batman"
At a rally yesterday in New Mexico, Barack Obama ridiculed John McCain's attempts to distance himself from George W. Bush's economic policies. "It's like Robin getting mad at Batman," Obama said.

Palin: Obama Will Abolish All Private Property
Campaigning yesterday in Iowa, Sarah Palin upped the ante on the GOP's efforts to paint Barack Obama as some kind of a Marxist because he wants the tax structure to be slightly more progressive, warning that all property would be collectively owned under Obama:

"See, under a big government, more tax agenda, what you thought was yours would really start belonging to somebody else, to everybody else," Palin said. "If you thought your income, your property, your inventory, your investments were, were yours, they would really collectively belong to everybody." Note: Palin is the governor of a state that practices the collective ownership of profitable natural resources.

The Obama campaign goes up with a new 30-second ad designed to pre-emptively frame McCain's expected fusillade of closing attacks as the last gasps of a losing campaign:

The ad revives a line he used against Hillary in the closing days of the Dem primary, charging that McCain "wants to tear Barack Obama down with scare tactics and smears."

Only this time, the spot puts that claim in the context of the economy, saying that McCain's campaign of slime is due to the fact that "McCain's own campaign admits that if the election is about the economy, he's going to lose."

That's the framing the Obama camp has been repeating endlessly and wants for the closing days: Obama wants the campaign to be about which candidate has better solutions on the economy, while McCain's attacks on Obama's character and allegedly questionable background and associations signal nothing but desperation to avoid discussion of the things that matter to voters.

If many recent polls are to be believed, voters are seeing the race in precisely these terms, and as a result don't appear to be listening to or getting swayed by McCain's attacks. The question is whether the frame will hold for another 10 days.