Here's a campaign appearance that could have gone a little better. Sarah Palin stopped in at tonight's Philadelphia Flyers game to ceremonially drop the first puck -- and was met by an arena full of booing.

"Flyers fans, please welcome the best-known hockey mom in the United States," the announcer said. What happened next cannot exactly be described as a warm welcome:

(Via Daily Kos)

The controversy surrounding John McCain's rallies took another turn today, with Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), a veteran organizer of the civil rights movement, releasing a statement condemning the McCain campaign and even comparing the Republican nominee to George Wallace.

"George Wallace never threw a bomb. He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who only desired to exercise their constitutional rights," Lewis said. "Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed one Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama."

McCain quickly fired back with his own statement, defending his audiences and calling upon Barack Obama to repudiate Lewis: "I am saddened that John Lewis, a man I've always admired, would make such a brazen and baseless attack on my character and the character of the thousands of hardworking Americans who come to our events to cheer for the kind of reform that will put America on the right track."

The Obama campaign then seemed to agree in part with Lewis, backing away from the George Wallace comparison but standing by him on almost everything else: "Senator Obama does not believe that John McCain or his policy criticism is in any way comparable to George Wallace or his segregationist policies. But John Lewis was right to condemn some of the hateful rhetoric that John McCain himself personally rebuked just last night, as well as the baseless and profoundly irresponsible charges from his own running mate that the Democratic nominee for President of the United States 'pals around with terrorists.'"

Check out the full statements, after the jump.

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Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. This is the first day on which we have data collected entirely after the second presidential debate, and it shows, and it shows that Barack Obama has expanded his already-considerable lead since that debate:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.8%-42.5%, a lead of more than eight points, compared to a 50.0%-42.2% Obama lead yesterday. In the data collected before the debate, the score was Obama 49.7%, McCain 43.2%.

Palin Lies About Ethics Report's Finding
Sarah Palin falsely told reporters this morning that the Alaska legislature's ethics report on Trooper-Gate clears her of any wrongdoing. "And if you read the report, you'll see that there was nothing unlawful or unethical about replacing a cabinet member. You got to read the report, sir," Palin said. In fact, the report says that Palin violated the state's ethics codes in bringing pressure upon cabinet members to take retaliatory actions against her ex-brother-in-law.

Obama Thanks McCain For Calling Him A Decent Man
At a stop in Philadelphia this morning, Barack Obama thanked John McCain for telling his own audiences to be respectful, and that Obama is a decent man. "I want to acknowledge that Senator McCain tried to tone down the rhetoric in his town hall meeting yesterday, and I appreciated his reminder that we can disagree while still being respectful of each other," Obama said.

Obama In Philadelphia
Barack Obama is touring through Philadelphia, today, holding multiple rallies around the city. Obama held an 8:15 a.m. ET rally at Progress Plaza, a 9:30 a.m rally at the Mayfair Diner, an 11:15 a.m. rally at Vernon Park, and he has one more scheduled for at 1:10 p.m. ET, at the intersection of South 52nd Street and Locust Street. Joe Biden does not have any public events.

McCain In Iowa, Palin In Pennsylvania
John McCain has a 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Davenport, Iowa -- an odd choice for a visit, considering how polling right now has Barack Obama winning Iowa by a more than double-digit margin. Sarah Palin held a rally at 10 a.m. ET this morning in Johnstown, Pennsylvania.

Poll: McCain Has Narrow Edge In North Carolina
A new North Carolina poll from Marshall Marketing gives John McCain a 48%-46% lead in this new swing state, within the ±4.5% margin of error. The same poll also shows Democratic Senate candidate Kay Hagan with a 44%-43% edge over Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole, within the same margin of error.

Dem Senator To GOPer: Take Down Ad That Features Me
Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) has called upon fellow Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith (R) to take down an ad that used old video of Wyden praising Smith, so as to make it appear as if Wyden was endorsing him. In fact, Wyden just recently did a commercial for Democratic nominee Jeff Merkley.

The new Newsweek poll, which finds Obama leading McCain by 52%-41% among registered voters, also finds some serious movement among voter groups that had been reluctant to back the Illinios Senator in the past:

He now leads McCain among both men (54 percent to 40 percent) and women (50 percent to 41 percent). He now wins every age group of voters -- including those over 65 years of age, who back him over McCain 49 to 43 percent. Supporters of Hillary Clinton, as many as a fifth of whom had at one point told pollsters they'd support McCain over Obama, now back the Democratic nominee 88 percent to 7 percent.

McCain still retains a slight edge of two points among independents, 45%-43%. But Obama is winning on the character front. His favorability ratings have actually edged up, from 57% to 60%, while his unfavorability rating has dropped a point, to 36%.

Meanwhile, McCain's favorability rating has dropped six points to 51%. And 59% say Obama shares their values, versus only 47% for McCain. So McCain's efforts to paint Obama as culturally out of touch, allied with shadowy figures, including terrorists, and different from you and me in a vaguely sinister way just may be proving to be a bust.

As noted below, today's McCain event was awfully surreal, and here's some video of the best moment -- McCain grabbing the mic away from a woman who says she's scared of Obama because he's an "Arab"...

One thing that's intriguing: How quickly the crowd goes from booing McCain's demand that his supporters respect Obama to cheering his claim that that's how politics should be conducted in America. The crowd swung from booing the sentiment to cheering it in seconds.

Also: It's hard to see how his current appearance today doesn't cut against him, should his campaign amp up the attacks on Ayers (and, potentially, Wright) in the home stretch. But he was boxed in and had no choice but to do this.

After taking criticism for standing by for days while his supporters grew increasingly unhinged and hysterical, John McCain did the right thing today, telling his supporters that there's no need to be "scared" of a president Obama and calling on them to be "respectful" towards him.

We have two videos for you from the same event. Here's vid of McCain saying that you needn't fear Obama: "He is a decent person, and a person that you do not have be scared as President of the United States"...

And here's video of McCain calling for respect from his supporters...

That's all fine. But if McCain wants to lower the temperature, how about stopping with the new ad implying that Obama is currently in league with a current terrorist? And if we see Wright come up next week, will this stuff still be operative?

The Obama campaign has a new spot in key states firing back at John McCain's attack ads, saying it's all a result of McCain's own desperation:

"Barack Obama launched his first campaign here, not in anyone's living room," the announcer says as a photo of a hotel is flashed on the screen. "And Bill Daley? He was confirmed as Commerce Secretary and praised for his great work -- by none other than John McCain."

"It's clear," the announcer concludes. "With no plan to fix our economy, smears are all John McCain has left."

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Coleman Suspends Negative Ads, Sort Of
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), who has fallen behind in the polls against Al Franken thanks to the economic crisis and voter backlash against the negative turn that the campaign has taken, has announced that he is pulling all of his negative ads, and will only run positive spots. There is a loophole here, though: The Coleman campaign can cancel its own negative advertising, but the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee and outside groups will still be able to run as many attacks against Al Franken as they want.

Franken Camp: Our Ads Against Coleman's Record Are Staying
In a statement released to the media, Al Franken's campaign declared that they'll keep their attack ads against Norm Coleman running: "Given that this week's polls are clearly showing that Minnesotans are sick of Norm Coleman's campaign of character assassination, today's stunt rings as a cynical ploy designed to change the subject and avoid scrutiny of his own record. It's like an arsonist burning down every house in the village and then asking to be named fire chief."

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The McCain campaign is now broadening their attack on Obama's past association with William Ayers to include Michelle Obama -- even though McCain has repeatedly said spouses should be off limits during the campaign.

The attack? Bernardine Dohrn, Ayers' wife and fellow former Weatherman, went to work in 1984 for the major Chicago-based national law firm of Sidley & Austin, and three years later, Michelle joined the mega-firm as well.

That's the entire attack. We wish we were joking. But we aren't.

In launching this latest, McCain is ditching yet another formerly-claimed principle as he faces the growing likelihood of defeat. In a statement back in June, the McCain campaign said: "Senator McCain agrees with Senator Obama that spouses should not be an issue in this campaign, and he has stated that position frequently."

The attack on Michelle came on a McCain conference call with reporters this afternoon featuring John Murtagh, who has been hitting Obama over the Weather Underground's attack on his family's home back in 1970. Murtagh noted that Dohrn and Michelle Obama had both worked at the firm starting in the late 1980s.

The firm's Chicago office currently employs more than 500 lawyers.

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In an unusual move, one of the largest unions supporting Barack Obama is blitzing some 250,000 senior households in the battleground states with a 13-minute DVD that's solely devoted to attacking John McCain's health care plan in a level of detail that far outdoes your typical direct mail piece.

Here's a first look at the DVD, which has been sent out to the quarter-million households in 18 battleground states by the Service Employees International Union and was sent our way by an SEIU official:

What's interesting about the union's investment in a campaign of this kind is that it's banking on the willingness of voters to sit through a 13-minute policy discussion -- a pretty big gamble in our sound-bite era. It reflects a conviction that the state of our economy has left the election so issue-focused and left voters so hungry for real solutions that they'll willingly muster the attention span required to absorb the DVD's message.

The DVD -- whose existence was previously known about but hadn't reached reporters yet -- offers a very detailed policy critique of McCain's plan. It watches like a documentary, with footage of McCain and lots of interviews with ordinary voters about their health care problems. It also digs deep into the record to accuse McCain of voting against seniors' interests on health care in multiple ways.

These numbers, buried in the internals of a new Fox News poll out today, are the first time a national poll has tried to gauge the impact of Barack Obama's association with William Ayers. And the numbers are pretty bad for McCain:

There has been some discussion of Barack Obama's relationship with the former radical activist William Ayers. Because Ayers is linked to plots to bomb the Pentagon and the U.S. Capitol in the 1970s, and because Ayres recently said he wished he had done more, some people say Obama's association with Ayers calls into question his judgment. Does Obama's connection with Ayers make you less likely to vote for him for president or does it not really make a difference to your vote?

Less Likely 32%

No Difference 61%

Strikingly, the numbers are worse for McCain among independents: Only 29% say the Ayers association makes them less likely to vote for Obama, and more than twice as many -- 64% -- say it makes no difference. The data suggests that the vast majority of the respondents saying it makes them less likely to vote for Obama are Republicans, who probably wouldn't have supported him anyway.

Meanwhile, the poll suggests that McCain's attacks could be blowing back on him: A majority -- 51% -- say he's running a negative campaign, as compared to only 21% who say that about Obama.

Our handy TPM Election Central calculator tells us that the number of voters think McCain is running a negative campaign is nearly double that of the number who care about McCain's primary attack line right now. Go figure.

Could it be that voters have something on their minds other than the question of what a former violent radical who's now respected in Chicago was doing when Obama was walking around in shortpants?

Late Update: A quick additional point on this. Obviously this attack isn't really about Ayers; it's about sowing vague doubts about Obama's patriotism and background. Whether that dimension of the attack is working is harder to measure, and may not be perfectly reflected in the answers to direct pollster questions about Ayers. Still, the above numbers are striking.

Hey, TPM readers: As you may have heard, we are launching an all-new version of our TPM community -- an overhaul of our community tools that will vastly improve your reading, commenting, and blogging experience here.

You can get the whole story on this big overhaul right here.

But before we launch, we need some of our trusted readers, commenters and bloggers to test out the new system. You can be the first to experience it!

If you're interested in helping us give our new system a test run, shoot us email us at tpmbeta@gmail.com -- this afternoon, if you can. Thanks in advance, and enjoy.

Obama campaign surrogates are out there in the states today pushing the campaign's attack line over McCain-Palin's unhinged crowds very hard, with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland blasting the McCain team at a rally today, and vouching for Obama as a "strong Christian man" who poses no threat to gun rights.

"Why do I share those two things with you this morning?" Strickland added. "Because the McCain-Palin campaign, and unfortunately some of their followers, would want you to be afraid of Barack Obama," he said. "They want you to believe that he is untested and unknown, and they are doing it my friends for one reason, they want to hold onto the power they have and to the positions that they want."

Meanwhile, the atmosphere at McCain events seems to be getting worse and worse. The Huffington Post points out that a woman in the crowd at a rally today in Wisconsin began yelling "Traitor!" -- and TV footage appears to show John and Cindy McCain looking in her direction and smiling.

Late Update: Here's the video of the woman yelling at the McCain rally:

Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. With two days of post-debate data within these three-day trackers, Barack Obama is ahead by nearly eight points. His support is holding about where it was before the debate, while John McCain's may be declining even further:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 47%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, Compared to a 51%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.0%-42.2%, a nearly eight-point lead, compared to a 49.9%-42.6% Obama lead yesterday. In the data collected before the debate, the score was Obama 49.7%, McCain 43.2%.

As noted below, the story of the moment is not just the unhinged quality we're seeing from more and more McCainiacs at McCain-Palin rallies, but also the leading role McCain and Palin have played in whipping up all the anger.

Here is establishmentarian David Gergen making the key point ( nice catch by HuffPo)...

"There is a free-floating sort of whipping-around anger that could really lead to some violence," Gergen says. "And I think we're not far from that."

More from Gergen: "I think it's really imperative the candidates try to calm people down."

That's the story here: That not only have McCain and Palin helped stoke all this craziness, they've also refused to utter a single syllable of condemnation of any of it -- an astonishing abdication of leadership.

The fury and loathing of Obama being whipped up largely by McCain-Palin-GOP rhetoric about the Illinois Senator is now spilling into down-ticket races, specifically the battle between GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss and his Dem challenger:

Thursday's debate took place in front of a highly partisan crowd in the GOP stronghold of Middle Georgia.

Chambliss supporters waved "Saxby" signs and offered up a sustained "boos" when Martin mentioned Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.

"Bomb Obama," one woman hollered.

This isn't a McCain rally, to be sure. But McCain could definitely have an impact on the overall climate if he called on the McCainiacs to calm down a notch or two and made a public gesture of some kind in order to let it be known that some behavior is simply unacceptable.

Asking the McCain campaign to stop insinuating that Obama is a terrorist is probably a bit much to expect. But as the leader of the Republican Party right now, he could let it be known that there is a line somewhere that shouldn't be crossed. Of course, that would require him to show leadership.

Here's today's run-down on the Congressional races:

McConnell Ad Ties Lunsford To Schumer And New York
Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, who is facing a tough challenge from Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford, has this incredible ad out tying Lunsford to the New York liberalism of DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer:

"And this guy wants to put a New Yawk Senadduh in Kentucky," the announcer says, in a hammed-up New York City accent. "Fuggedaboudit."

Gordon Smith: Palin Is A Great Governor For California
Some Republicans have taken to exaggerating Sarah Palin's qualifications, but this is just ridiculous. In a funny verbal slip-up in last night's Senate debate in Oregon, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith referred to Sarah Palin as an effective governor for California:

"I've met Sarah Palin once, she's a lovely person," Smith said. "She's a great governor of California, she's a strong executive."

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The news orgs are beginning to weigh in with big takes on what is unquestionably one of the most important stories of Campaign 2008: The pathologically-unhinged tone that McCain-Palin supporters are displaying at rallies of late.

The New York Times has a write-up here; The Washington Post has one here, and The Politico has one here.

This is a welcome development, and the stories are pretty good. But the news orgs are still dancing around the central story here: That McCain and Palin themselves are largely responsible for what's happening.

The Times, for instance, does say that McCain's rallies are worse than Obama's, but nonetheless bemoans negative campaigning on "both sides." WaPo very politely notes that McCain and Palin "drew on the crowd's energy" as they attacked Obama yesterday (actually, they fed the crowd's "energy"). And Politico says that the anger is driven by Obama's momentum and fears that McCain will lose.

No question, there are a number of factors at play. But surely the most important one is the role that McCain and Palin themselves are playing in creating the toxic hysteria that reigns at the rallies they are running.

Let's consider a partial list of what the McCain camp has done recently:

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In remarks he's giving in Ohio right now, Barack Obama seeks to make a campaign issue out of the unhinged tone that's been gripping McCain-Palin rallies of late, directly blaming the McCain-Palin ticket for stoking all the rage and linking it to his slowly crescendoing attack on McCain as unfit to lead the country.

From the prepared remarks:

It's easy to rile up a crowd by stoking anger and division. But that's not what we need right now in the United States. The times are too serious. The challenges are too great. The American people aren't looking for someone who can divide this country -- they're looking for someone who will lead it. We're in a serious crisis -- now, more than ever, it is time to put country ahead of politics. Now, more than ever, it is time to bring change to Washington so that it works for the people of this country that we love.

I know my opponent is worried about his campaign. But that's not what I'm concerned about. I'm thinking about the Americans losing their jobs, and their homes, and their life savings. We can't afford four more years of the economic theory that says we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else.

Thus adding another dimension to the Obama campaign's overall message: McCain wants to attack and destroy in order to avoid talking about the economy, while Obama wants to get on with solving the crisis. Full prepared remarks after the jump.

Late Update: Here's the video:

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A funny thing seems to be happening in Minnesota: Al Franken, who trailed in the polls for a long time and whose candidacy was written off by many observers, now seems to be surging ahead of incumbent GOP Sen. Norm Coleman.

Don't look now, but he just might win.

The last three polls of the race have put Franken ahead. Rasmussen had it yesterday at Franken 43%, Coleman 37%, and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley 17%. The University of Minnesota has it at Franken 41%, Coleman 37%, and Barkley 14%. And the Star Tribune puts it at Franken 43%, Coleman 34%, and Barkley 18%.

And as of yesterday afternoon, Pollster.com has given Franken a narrow lead of 40.0%-39.2% in its trend-line.

So how on earth did a foul-mouthed comedian talk his way to the point where he may knock off an established GOP incumbent?

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New McCain Ad: Obama Worked With A Terrorist
The McCain campaign has a new TV ad hammering Barack Obama for his past associations with Bill Ayers. Check it out:

"When convenient, he worked with terrorist Bill Ayers. When discovered, he lied," the announcer says. Much like the Web ad from yesterday, the syntax here appears to suggest that the two of them worked together on terrorism, rather than an education foundation that Obama chaired and Ayers served on.

Obama In Ohio, Biden In Missouri
Barack Obama is in Ohio today, with a 9:40 a.m. ET rally in Chillicothe, and an early afternoon rally in Columbus. Joe Biden is in Missouri, with an 12:30 p.m. ET rally in Springfield.

McCain In Wisconsin And Minnesota, Palin In Ohio And Pennsylvania
John McCain is campaigning today in Wisconsin and Minnesota, two Dem-leaning swing states where he's fallen way behind in the recent polls. McCain has an 11 a.m. ET rally in La Crosse, Wisconsin, and a 5 p.m. ET rally in Lakeville, Minnesota. Sarah Palin is touring through Ohio and Pennsylvania, which are both slipping away from the GOP ticket, with events in Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

Hillary Campaigning For Dem Ticket Today In Arkansas
Hillary Clinton is holding a rally today on behalf of Barack Obama in Little Rock, Arkansas, scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Obama: I Assumed Ayers Was Rehabilitated
In an interview with Michael Smerconish, Barack Obama said that he had begun working Bill Ayers on the Annenberg education project under innocent circumstances. "Ultimately, I ended up learning about the fact that he had engaged in this reprehensible act 40 years ago," Obama said, "but I was eight years old at the time and I assumed that he had been rehabilitated."

GOP Pollster: Obama Up In Florida And Ohio
A new pair of polls from Strategic Vision (R) gives Barack Obama the lead in both Florida and Ohio. In Florida: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, outside of the ±3% margin of error. In Ohio: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, within the ±3% margin of error.

More Polls Put Obama Up In North Carolina
Two new polls are showing Obama ahead in North Carolina, which hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976. From North Carolina-based Civitas (R): Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±4.2% margin of error. From Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 48%, with a ±4% margin of error.

CREW Wants Probe Of McCain's Gambling Winnings
The Committee for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington is calling upon the Senate Ethics Committee to investigate John McCain's habit of gambling, and whether he has failed to reports winnings on his financial disclosure forms. "Given Sen. McCain's history of gambling on a regular basis over many years, it is nearly impossible to imagine that he never won over $200, the amount that triggers the reporting requirement," said CREW executive director Melanie Sloan.

William Ayers makes his first appearance in a paid TV ad campaign attacking Obama, courtesy of the Republican National Committee:

The RNC reported to the Federal Election Commission today that they plunked down around $5 million for TV ads. While we can't be sure it's all funding this spot, there may be some serious money behind this buy.

When is the unhinged frenzy gripping crowds at McCain-Palin gatherings -- not to mention McCain-Palin's own role in stoking that frenzy -- going to become a big story?

Today in Wisconsin, a McCain supporter unleashed a long, unhinged rant in which he blasted the "socialists taking over our country" and referred to Obama and Nancy Pelosi as "hooligans." McCain didn't utter one syllable of objection. In fact, he nodded bemusedly at the "socialist" mention.

And at the end of the man's rant, McCain said that the man was "right."

(Hat tip The Politico.)

After the man's rant, the crowd got worked up and chanted "U-S-A" a bunch of times. Then McCain replied: "Well, I -- I think I got the message. Could I just say, the gentleman is right." McCain then went on about how it was true that Americans are angry.

Look, it's easy to dismiss the guy at this rally as a crank. But the larger context here is important. The McCain campaign -- with public statements and ads suggesting Obama is linked to terrorists and many other tactics -- is very deliberately trying to whip up mass fear and loathing about the prospect of an Obama presidency.

This has been going on for some time now. And Joe Biden, among others, has been appealing to McCain and Palin to do something to calm their supporters down and to condemn their outpourings of hatred and lunacy.

In that context, this is telling. This supporter, bless his soul, is in a frenzy about the prospect of being taking over by "socialists" and "hooligans," and his rant clearly got the crowd going. Rather than responsibly talk him and the rest of the crowd down, or say even some de rigeur things about how socialists aren't really going to take over, about how Obama and the Dems aren't really hooligans, about how we should keep the dialog respectful and sane, McCain says the man is "right."

The point is, McCain is letting this whack-job fear and hysteria ride across the board, and is even encouraging it. That's news, and you'd think it would get some serious and aggressive treatment from the big news orgs.

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Franken Ad: GOP Ads Lie About Me Being Angry
Al Franken, who has taken the lead in the latest polls of the Minnesota Senate race, has this new one-minute TV ad, showing in detail how a Republican attack ad has twisted around footage of him doing a humorous impersonation of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone in order to make Franken look manic and angry:

"Look familiar?" the announcer says. "That's right. Ads for Norm Coleman use this footage of Al Franken telling this story about Paul Wellstone and his son and try to make is seem like he was angry. Minnesota deserves better."

Polls: Dems Ahead In Alaska's Congressional Races
A new poll from Alaska pollster Ivan Moore shows Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and Rep. Don Young (R), both tainted by scandal, trailing their Democratic opponents. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) leads Stevens 49%-45%, and former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz has a wider lead of 51%-42% over Don Young.

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The Obama campaign confirms to us that Obama is buying up half-hour primetime blocs on the networks, for unspecified programming, later this month.

The campaign declined to elaborate. But Obama has closed a deal for a half-hour of time on CBS on Wednesday, Oct. 29th, at 8 P.M., a source familiar with the discussions confirms.

Obama's bids for the airtime were first reported by The Hollywood Reporter.

It's unclear yet whether Obama has closed the deal with NBC, and we're told that the bid for time on Fox has run into a potential complication: Game six of the World Series is set to air on that network on the 29th, should it be necessary.

So what is Obama planning to run? "It could be a long commercial, it could be a speech," the source said.

That should be interesting. October 29th is less than a week before Election Day.

We asked Hillary spokesperson Kathleen Strand for a comment on McCain's use of Hillary today to attack Obama over his association with Bill Ayers today, and she sent over a barbed response:

As Hillary Clinton has criss-crossed the country for Barack Obama, she has said to anyone who will listen that we can't trust John McCain and the Republicans to fix this economy and turn our country around. Funny, John McCain isn't using those words.

That's not bad: It hits McCain for not wanting to discuss the economy, in keeping with the Obama campaign's message.

McCain, incidentally, appears to be misrepresenting what Hillary said about Ayers during the primary in order to legitimize his smear. McCain said today that Hillary had asserted that Ayers "should" come up.

While Hillary did point to Ayers as something Obama might have to deal with in a general election, to the best of our knowledge, Hillary only said that Republicans would bring it up, and lamented that fact.

It's official: John McCain has now fully embraced the assault on Obama's association with William Ayers -- and he's evoking Hillary to do it.

From a McCain-voter exchange at a town hall meeting today, as reported by The Politico...

"We're all a product of our association. Is there not a way to get around this media and line up the people that he has hung with?" the man asked.

McCain responded:

"Well, sir, with your help and the people in this room, we will find out. Just as Senator Clinton said in the primary that we should find out about this association.

"Look, we don't care about an old washed-up terrorist and his wife, who still, at least on Sept. 11, 2001, said he still wanted to bomb more. That's not the point here. The point is Senator Obama said he was just a guy in the neighborhood. We know that's just not true. We need to know the full extent of the relationship because of whether Senator Obama is telling the truth to the American people or not. That's the question."

Looks like Ayers isn't off the table after all: The rub here is that it was basically McCain who brought up Ayers, and he was very clearly primed to say what he said, since the attack dovetails perfectly with the campaign's talking points.

Also, I think the Hillary quote McCain's referring to here is from a Dem primary debate in which the candidates were asked about Ayers. If so, McCain is misrepresenting Hillary's remarks: She said Republicans would dredge up Ayers and use him against Obama, and she lamented that fact. She didn't say that they "should," as McCain says. Not that facts matter...oh, never mind.

The newest survey from Public Policy Polling (D) not only has Barack Obama ahead in Virginia, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since the LBJ landslide of 1964 -- it's the widest lead he's had in their polling yet.

The new numbers: Obama 51%, McCain 43%, outside of the ±3.2% margin of error. This is consistent with other recent polls that show Obama building up a sizable lead here.

The internals show Obama winning 42% of the white vote, way ahead of John Kerry's 32% in 2004. This could explain why Obama is doing so well: Sixty-three percent of respondents say the economy is the single most important issue, and this group is going for Obama 59%-36%.

Late Update: Now this is interesting. A new ARG poll gives Obama a 50%-42% lead in West Virginia. The major caveat here, of course, is that ARG's track record during the presidential primaries was simply less than stellar, and other polls have given McCain the lead here. But maybe the economic crisis is having an effect here, too.

So General Petraeus agrees with Barack Obama -- and not John McCain -- on the question of whether we should meet with hostile enemies?

In an interview that aired on CBS last night, John McCain, when asked which three living people he'd like to have dinner with most, promptly chose General Petraeus. McCain frequently hails Petraeus as an "American hero."

McCain, however, might not enjoy that dinner so much if he heard Petraeus' views on one of the leading foreign policy differences he has with Barack Obama.

In a case of comically awful timing, Petraeus yesterday gave a talk at the Heritage Foundation in which he more or less echoed Barack Obama's views on negotiating with hostile foreign leaders -- views that McCain has repeatedly subjected to criticism and ridicule.

Asked by a questioner specifically about the disagreement on this topic that McCain and Obama had at Tuesday night's debate, Petraeus demurred a bit, but said: "I do think you have to talk to enemies."

"I'm not trying to get into the middle of domestic politics," Petraeus also said, "but I mean what we did do in Iraq ultimately was sit down with some of those that were shooting at us. What we tried to do was identify those who might be reconcilable."

Petraeus' comments were reported on yesterday by Spencer Ackerman and were noted elsewhere today, and we think they deserve more attention. We went to the video on Heritage's site to get a longer transcript, and sure enough, the context shows that Petraeus was more or less backing up Obama's point of view.

What Petraeus said isn't a perfect endorsement of Obama's views -- he didn't specifically discuss Iran, and the question of "no preconditions" didn't come up -- but it's pretty darn close.

That's because it's as clear as day that the context specifically was the debate between Obama and McCain on this topic on Tuesday night. During that exchange, the candidates clashed on whether to meet with the leaders of Iran, and the questioner at Heritage posed the subject about talking to enemies specifically in that light.

And while Petraeus did say he didn't see Tuesday's debate, the general no doubt knows precisely what the disagreement between the two men is on this topic. So the question Petraeus was asked was basically the same as him being asked whose views he endorsed when it comes to the two men's very public disagreement. Petraeus' own joke about not wanting to wade into "a minefield" and his allusion to not getting "involved in domestic politics" would suggest that that's how he saw the question, too.

And Petraeus more or less picked the Obama argument.

Maybe Petraeus and McCain can discuss this at dinner someday.

Full transcript after the jump.

Late Update: Video added above.

Late Late Update: Petraeus's spokesperson, Steven Boylan, contests our interpretation of what the General said, and sends over this statement:

Some of the remarks made by Gen Petraeus at the Heritage Foundation have been misinterrepted and mischarecterized. At no time did he state or intimate that he agrees with or disagrees with either candidates views on foreign policy. Gen Petraeus remains a-political in his remarks and actions. In his response to a question about the debate, he clearly stated that he was not getting into domestic politics and that he had not seen the debate.

He did provide a response based on his experiences as a military commander and those experiences based in Iraq. In his response to the question Gen Petraeus was referring to talking with our enemies that are facing us in Iraq such as the Sunni and Shia extremists to determine who is reconcilable and who is irreconcilable. In the same regard, he was referring to the potential to have the same type of discussions with various elements/members of the Taliban as we did in Iraq with AQI and other extremeists.

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Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. With one new day of post-debate data within these three-day trackers, Barack Obama's significant lead over John McCain has expanded slightly:

• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. At 11 points, this is Obama's widest lead in the Gallup poll for this whole campaign so far.

• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 45%-44% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 47%-45% Obama lead yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 49.9%-42.6%, compared to a 49.7%-43.2% Obama lead yesterday.

In a speech today in Ohio, Barack Obama will seize on John McCain's change in his housing plan to launch a direct hit on McCain's temperament and fitness to lead, in what's looking increasingly like a concerted effort to unnerve McCain in advance of the final debate.

According to the prepared remarks, Obama will hit McCain for making an overnight change to his homeowner bailout scheme that would make it better for financial institutions and worse for taxpayers:

Now, this is just the latest in a series of shifting positions that Senator McCain has taken on this issue. His first response to this crisis in March was that homeowners shouldn't get any help at all. Then, a few weeks ago, he put out a plan that basically ignored homeowners. And now, in the course of 12 hours, he's ended up with a plan that punishes taxpayers, rewards banks, and won't solve our housing crisis.

Well, I don't think we can afford that kind of erratic and uncertain leadership in these uncertain times. We need steady leadership in the White House. We need a President we can trust in times of crisis. And that's the kind of President I intend to be.

This comes after the Obama campaign released a new ad this morning questioning McCain's judgment amid crisis.

Now Obama is personally questioning whether McCain's temperament renders him unfit to lead, and contrasting it unabashedly with his own leadership abilities. I'm not sure if Obama himself has done this quite so directly before. Temperature steadily rising...

Full Obama remarks after the jump.

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Others have already hit this, but it's a key moment: Obama, in an interview with ABC News that aired last night, effectively daring McCain to bring up Ayers to his face:

Between these comments suggesting that McCain is a bit of a coward, and that ad this morning about mortgage policy that takes care to question McCain's judgment in a crisis, it seems like the Obama camp is trying to get under McCain's skin and unnerve him a bit in advance of the final debate next week.

Also: A direct confrontation over Ayers is one that Obama is happy to invite, since it would give him a chance to directly hit McCain with the charge that he's trying to distract from the economy with frivolous attacks. Plus, it seems like something McCain is unlikely to risk in any case.

With the big unions gearing up for the final push in the battlegrounds, the United Auto Workers hits the airwaves in four swing states with an ad campaign tattooing John McCain on the economy and health care.

The spots have shades of the "Harry and Louise" ads that were run against health care way back when, featuring ordinary working people worrying about their loved ones' future -- only these aren't actors. Here's a spot featuring an auto worker worried about the future on behalf of his new grandson...

And here's a spot featuring a female autoworker worrying about her son's asthma...

The UAW says they're spending $3 million on the ad campaign, which will run in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, which are home to more than half of UAW's one million active and retired members.

An intriguing observation from MSNBC's First Read:

Obama has really stepped up the mentions of his mother. It happened at the debate Tuesday night, when he told the story of his mother and health care. Then right after the debate, the campaign launches this ad that's as much about his mother as it is about Obama. There are more pictures of a young Obama with his mother than any ad that he's aired to date. It's a big reminder that Obama is biracial -- something many Democrats believe helps him with some older voters who might be struggling with the race issue.

Seems like the mentions of his mother -- both when discussing her illness and in the new ad, which stresses that she taught him the value of hard work -- are more about emotionally connecting with struggling folks than they are about reminding people that he's biracial. Interesting, though.

The Obama campaign is going up with a new ad that questions McCain's judgment "in a time of crisis" by hitting the mortgage refinancing plan that McCain sprung during Tuesday night's debate:

The details of McCain's plan are now available, and the the ad hits McCain's plan by saying it "would shift the burden from lenders to taxpayers, guaranteeing a loss of taxpaper money."

The ad says the same lenders who caused the crisis would benefit, and uses this to tie McCain to Bush: "Putting bad actors ahead of taxpayers? We can't afford more of the same."

The spot signals the opening of a new offensive by the Obama campaign: As part of Obama's big jobs and economy tour through Ohio today, his advisers say, he'll be playing up his criticsm of McCain's mortgage plan.

McCain Camp Steps Up Attacks Against Obama Over Ayers
We usually don't post on Web ads, but this new McCain piece is really something, saying that Obama is lying when he downplays his ties to Bill Ayers and the supposedly "radical" education foundation they both served on:

"Barack Obama and domestic terrorist Bill Ayers. Friends," the announcer says. "They've worked together for years. But Obama tries to hide it. Why?" The syntax here seems to imply that Ayers is currently a domestic terrorist, and that Obama and Ayers have worked together on terrorism.

HuffPo: Obama Camp Working On Transition, McCain Putting It Off
The Huffington Post reports that the Obama campaign has a fully-functioning transition effort in place should he win the election, and has obtained a copy of an ethics code that places limits on the ability of former lobbyists to serve on his team, and forbids current lobbyists entirely. By contrast, the McCain campaign has barely begun a transition t all, in contrast to virtually all other non-incumbent presidential nominees in the past who have prepared for the possibility of winning.

Obama In Ohio, Biden In Missouri
Barack Obama is touring Ohio today, with an 11:20 a.m. ET rally in Dayton, a 3 p.m. ET rally in Cincinnati, and a 7:30 p.m. rally in Portsmouth. Joe Biden is swinging through Missouri, with a 9 a.m. ET event in St. Joseph, a 1:30 p.m. ET event in Liberty, and an 8 p.m. ET event in Jefferson City.

McCain And Palin In Wisconsin, Then Palin In Ohio
John McCain and Sarah Palin are campaign together in Wisconsin today, with a 1 p.m. ET event in the Republican stronghold of Waukesha. Palin will then split off from McCain and go to Ohio, for a 7 p.m. ET rally in Wilmington.

McCain Changes Mortgage Plan, Makes It Friendlier To Banks
The McCain campaign made a sudden change to the candidate's American Homeownership Resurgence Plan, eliminating a sentence in the original version that would have forced banks to accept some loss in mortgage renegotiations. Instead, taxpayers would reimburse the banks for the difference between the original mortgages and the new versions. "That language was mistakenly included in the initial draft and it's been corrected," a campaign spokesman told the Politico.

Poll: Obama Way Up In Pennsylvania
A new Strategic Vision (R) poll of Pennsylvania gives Barack Obama a huge lead of 54%-40% in this perennial swing state. This state only narrowly voted for John Kerry in 2004, but it's looking more and more like it's off the table now, thanks to the economic crisis.

Obama Buying Ad Time On Youth-Oriented Channels
The Obama campaign has bought ad time on Comedy Central, VH1 and Spike, in an effort to boost his turnout among the younger voters that watch those channels. Young voters were one of Obama's most loyal constituencies in the Democratic primaries, and polling has indicated he'll run very strong with them again for the general election.

With the McCain campaign working overtime to sow doubts about Obama's patriotism, otherness, and alleged ties to terrorists, Mark Halperin reports that Obama is going up with this soft-focus biographical spot wholly focused on sketching his American story:

The ad features Obama recalling waving a "little American flag" while going to see returning astronauts with his grandfather, who fought in Patton's army; his grandmother's work on a bomber assembly line; and his mother's efforts to instill in him "American" values of hard work, honesty, self-reliance, and faith

"That's the country I believe in," Obama concludes. Details of the ad buy weren't immediately available.

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

The Worst Press Conference Ever?
You really have to watch this excruciating press conference given by Sen. Norm Coleman's (R-MN) campaign manager, in which he struggled to (not) answer questions about reports that his boss' clothes were paid for by one of his campaign contributors. Give it a look -- it's well worth your time.

House GOP Gets Huge Loan
In a sign of just how desperate things are going for the House Republicans, Roll Call reports that the NRCC has obtained an $8 million loan in order for them to be able to compete against their much better-funded Democratic counterparts. Deep thought: In this economy, one can only wonder what kind of interest rate they're being charged.

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That's the logical conclusion of what Cindy McCain said when she attacked Barack Obama at the big McCain rally today in Pennsylvania.

In a move that's driving today's news cycle, Cindy McCain went on the attack, charging that Obama voted to defund the troops -- one of whom is her son -- with his vote against the 2007 Iraq War funding bill that didn't include a timetable for withdrawal.

"The day that Senator Obama cast a vote not to fund my son when he was serving sent a cold chill through my body, let me tell you," said Cindy.

Here's the thing, though. If Obama's vote against that supplemental can be said to constitute a vote not to fund Cindy's son, as she put it, McCain, too, can be said to have voted to defund his own son.

McCain, of course, also opposed an Iraq troop funding bill in 2007 -- the one that did include a withdrawal timetable -- and voted against passage of the bill in the Senate.

It's important to be as clear as possible about this. If we accept Cindy's implication that Obama's vote constituted a danger to the McCains' son, then John, too, put his own son at risk -- all because the bill he voted against would have brought his son and his fellow troops home and ended the war McCain wants to continue.

In reality, of course, neither man supported "defunding" the troops. The goal of Obama's vote was to impose a withdrawal timetable, and the goal of McCain's vote was to oppose one. Not that reality matters, of course.

The last thing you need is yet more proof that the McCain campaign "suspension" was a big ruse, but this is a pretty funny postscript.

Buried in that Wisconsin Advertising Project report I mentioned below is this shining gold nugget:

On September 24, his campaign aired 2,447 ads and on Sept. 25, it aired 1,304 ads. From September 26-28, McCain aired 302, 670, and 852 ads respectively. On September 29, the campaign returned to previous advertising levels, airing 2,687 ads."

McCain suspended his campaign on the afternoon of Sept. 24th, and attended the debate on the 26th. On Sept. 25th -- the only full day of the suspension -- McCain's campaign ran a grand total of 1,304 ads. That's roughly half the campaign's ordinary level of advertising -- still a very heavy level.

To be fair, the numbers do show the McCain team did make an effort to pull ads down. But as the head of the Ad project told The Swamp blog, "It's not clear how hard they tried."

More to the point, whether the campaign tried or not, in the real world, McCain's suspension just didn't end up being the heroic act of self-sacrifice he claimed it to be.

After attacking Barack Obama's association with William Ayers for several days running, including yesterday, Sarah Palin made no mention of Ayers in her speech at a joint appearance with McCain in Pennsylvania that ended moments ago. Neither did McCain.

The missing Ayers reference suggest that the Ayers attacks may have backfired, and that the Obama campaign's counter-attack -- that the McCain team wants to use slimy negative attacks to distract from a discussion from the economy -- may have been effective.

It's also possible that Palin dropped the reference today because unlike in the past few days, she's appearing jointly with McCain. But even if that's so, it suggests that the McCain team doesn't want McCain directly associated with the Ayers reference.

Palin's non-mention of Ayers is only the latest sign that the McCain team is all over the map on Ayers right now. This morning, The Politico quoted McCain advisers saying McCain wouldn't focus on the former Weatherman going forward. But the McCain campaign also blasted out a statement from John Murtagh, who says his house was bombed by the Weather Underground when he was nine, hammering Obama's ties to Ayers.

In other words, the McCain campaign wants Ayers to be discussed in the press, but doesn't want McCain -- and now also Palin, perhaps -- associated with such a slimy attack at a time when voters want solutions to the economic crisis.

It would be nice if the McCain campaign explained precisely what it is they are objecting to about Obama's relationship with William Ayers. Their message on Ayers is muddled, confused, and self-contradictory -- all over the map.

Last night, a senior McCain adviser claimed that the campaign doesn't care specifically about who Ayers is per se, arguing that McCain's team is only concerned with Obama's alleged dishonesty about his relationship with the former Weatherman.

Yet this morning, only 12 hours later, the McCain campaign blasted out a statement from one John Murtagh, who says he was nine years old when the Weathermen firebombed his house. In other words, half a day after saying Ayers himself isn't the issue, the McCain team directly attacked Ayers, with a detailed recital of his crimes -- an obvious effort to insinuate that Obama is in league with terrorists.

Last night's statement claiming that the McCain team isn't concerned with Ayers himself came from McCain adviser Nicole Wallace. "[N]obody in America sitting around the kitchen table trying to figure out if they're gonna be able to make the mortgage or worried about the price of groceries or price of gas, nobody cares about Mr. Ayers," Wallace told Fox News. "Neither do we...What we care about is that Barack Obama described him as a guy in his neighborhood."

The reason for Wallace's statement seems obvious: She's claiming that the campaign is not trying to imply that Obama is in league with terrorists, as a way of deflecting the Obama camp's counter-argument that the McCain team is indulging in dirty negative attacks as a way of distracting voters from a discussion about the economy.

Yet this morning, the McCain team's statement from Murtagh said: "When I was 9 years-old the Weather Underground, the terrorist group founded by Barack Obama's friend William Ayers, firebombed my house. Barack Obama has dismissed concerns about his relationship with Ayers by noting that he was only a child when Ayers was planting bombs at the Pentagon and the U.S. Capitol. But Ayers has never apologized for his crimes, he has reveled in them, expressing regret only for the fact that he didn't do more."

So which is it? Is the McCain team only concerned with Obama's alleged dishonesty over Ayers, or are they attacking Ayers himself in order to make the slimy terrorist association at a time when voters want solutions to the economic crisis? They can't seem to decide.

Late Update: Here's another data point on just how muddled and confused the McCain team is over Ayers. As I noted below, Politico quoted McCain aides this morning saying that going forward, McCain "wouldn't focus on the former domestic terrorist." Later in the morning the McCain campaign sent out the statement from Murtagh. So maybe the candidate is taking Ayers off the table but the candidate's own campaign isn't?

Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Going into last night's debate, Obama's significant lead over John McCain was holding steady:

• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 41%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-42% Obama lead yesterday. At 11 points, this is Obama's widest lead in the Gallup poll for this whole campaign so far.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead yesterday. That number from yesterday was Obama's all-time highest lead in Rasmussen.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 45%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 46%-44% Obama lead yesterday. Note: This poll's partisan weighting a few days ago was 41% Dem to 36% GOP, but has been changed to 40% Dem and 38% GOP.

• Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

• Zogby: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.8% margin of error, compared to a 48%-45% Obama lead yesterday. This is the second day for Zogby's daily tracking poll, and the first day that we're including it in our TPM Track Composite.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 49.7%-43.2%, compared to a 50.2%-43.2% Obama lead yesterday. Bear in mind that this polling is all from before last night's debate. As such, it does not tell us about the post-debate race, but instead provides us a baseline against which we can measure polls over the next few days.

Speaking in Indiana right now, Obama hits McCain for a key health care answer at last night's debate, and links the attack to a ratcheted up emotional appeal on the issue, recounting his mother's twin battles with cancer and with insurance companies. From the prepared remarks:

Take health care. We were both asked whether we believed that health care should finally be the right of every American. I believe it should. But Senator McCain didn't say that. And when you look at his radical health care plan, you can see why....

Senator McCain didn't tell us about the studies that say his plan would cause 20 million Americans to lose their health insurance, or how the Chamber of Commerce said it would be a disaster for businesses, or how it would de-regulate the insurance industry so that they don't have to cover things like mammograms, or vaccinations, or maternity care. He thinks we won't notice these things.

Well, I've got news for John McCain: we notice, we know better, and we're not going to let him get away with it.

This issue is personal for me. My mother died of ovarian cancer at the age of 53, and I'll never forget how she spent the final months of her life lying in a hospital bed, fighting with her insurance company because they claimed that her cancer was a pre-existing condition and didn't want to pay for treatment. If I am President, I will make sure those insurance companies can never do that again.

That last line has accents of Bill Clinton's familar refrain in the early 1990s, when he promised health care that can "never be taken away" (no need to dwell on how that one turned out). There are no indications that the economy is going anywhere as the central issue of this campaign, and no indications that Obama has any intention to let up on it.

Full text of Obama's remarks after the jump.

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As we reported here on Friday, the McCain campaign has shifted nearly all of its ad spending into negative ads by pulling its positive "Original Mavericks" spot and replacing it with an attack ad hitting Obama and his "liberal" allies in Congress.

Today the Wisconsin Advertising Project released new numbers confirming this and offering more detail on just how big the gulf in negativity is between the two campaigns. It finds that while McCain's spending was nearly 100 percent negative during the week ending October 4th, negative attack ads constituted roughly a third of Obama's ad spending.

The Wisconsin project also has a fascinating breakdown of how Obama is swamping McCain in state-by-state spending:

Over the past week, the two campaigns were roughly even in spending in Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign has outspent the McCain campaign by a margin of over 3 to one in Florida, over 2 to 1 in New Hampshire, over 3 to 2 in Nevada, over 8 to 1 in North Carolina, and over 3 to 1 in Virginia

Separately, Biden just made a reference to McCain's 100-percent-negative campaign while speaking in Florida, suggesting this meme may now become a stock reference in his stump speech.

The Huffington Post catches the key moments from today's morning shows: Joe Biden threw down the gauntlet with Sarah Palin and demanded -- twice -- that she condemn the ugly slurs her supporters have been trafficking in at rallies.

"I watched the news and I heard a couple people hollering from the audience, semi-vile things about 'terrorists,' things like that," Biden said on NBC's Today Show. "The idea that a leading American politician who might be vice president of the United States would not just stop mid-sentence and turn and condemn that -- it's just a slippery slope, it's a place that we shouldn't be going."

On the other hand, it's pretty remarkable that she's a veep candidate at all, so we should hardly be expecting her to act like one. Meanwhile, here's Biden on Good Morning America:

"I mean, some of the stuff she's saying about Barack Obama and the stuff that people are yelling from the crowd, if she hears it, she should be at least be saying, whoa, whoa, whoa, that's overboard. But this is volatile stuff."

Of course, Palin herself is stoking such sentiments, so it seems unlikely that she'll suddenly demonstrate some decency and condemn them. Can't hurt for Biden to take on a leading role in pointing out Palin-McCain's daily descent into ever-lower depths of ugliness and sleaze, though.

Here's today's run-down of the Congressional Races:

Dems Shell Out $7 Million In One Day On House Races
The DCCC latest FEC filings from last night show that the Dems put down over $7 million for ads in 39 races across the country, in a mix of offense and defense. The single most notable expenditure: The Dems are spending $777,000 to go after scandal-plagued Rep. Don Young (R-AK), an astonishing amount for a small and very red state.

Poll: Franken Ahead In Minnesota
A new University of Minnesota poll is giving Al Franken a narrow lead in his bid to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN). The numbers: Franken 41%, Coleman 37%, and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley at 14%, within the ±5% margin of error.

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VoteVets goes up, mostly in Virginia, with a new spot that quotes a young veteran lambasting McCain for skipping a vote on Jim Webb's G.I. bill.

"When John McCain was about my age, our country paid his way through college," says Iraq vet Jason Bensley:

The allusion to McCain's government-funded education strikes me as effective. But Bensley then segues into an attack on McCain's many houses and rich friends, which seems like an overly canned recitation of the standard Dem message and detracts a bit from the power of the vet-versus-vet confrontation.

VoteVets is also up with another spot attacking McCain over care for veterans, and the group says it's spending $350,000 to run its ads in Virginia, another $40,000 to run them in New Mexico, and another $700,000 on direct mail hitting McCain on this front.

Late Update: VoteVets is also spending $200,000 to run this ad in North Carolina attacking vulnerable incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole for voting against body armor for our troops:

The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees keeps up the economic assault in the swing states, blitzing a dozen battlegrounds with two new hard-hitting mailers tying McCain to George W. Bush on the economy and lambasting McCain's health care plan.

An AFSCME official sends over the mailers, the first of which hammers McCain for his "fundamentals" gaffe and claims that Bush-McCain policies are "killing the middle class" (click on the images to enlarge)...

"You have a right to know about John McCain's economic record," the mailer reads, reflecting internal union polling that shows low-information swing-state voters lack a strong sense of McCain's ideology and proposals on the economy.

Meanwhile, a second mailer hits McCain's proposal to tax health care benefits, the central target of efforts to paint McCain as the risky and even frightening choice on this crucial pocketbook issue. Also note the word "Republican" in big and garish green letters...

As noted here and elsewhere, the words "William Ayers" appeared nowhere in yesterday's debate, despite the fact that the McCain campaign hinted for days that McCain would go hard at Obama's associations.

Now Politico reports that McCain advisers are privately indicating that Ayers, and Obama's pastor, Jeremiah Wright, may be off the table for good:

After days of attempts to persuade voters that Obama's ties to '60s radical Bill Ayers are a crucial character issue, McCain didn't mention Ayers' name during the 90 minutes of Tuesday's forum. His top aides suggested afterward that, going forward, the candidate wouldn't focus on the former domestic terrorist nor invoke the name of Obama's controversial pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

If it's really true that the McCain team is holstering this pistol, it suggests that the McCain campaign's internal polling on how the Ayers stuff is playing is just brutal, likely among independents. It also suggests that Obama's counter-attack -- lambasting McCain's campaign for wanting to change the subject from the economy to personal attacks -- has been effective.

Also: No more hits on Ayers or Wright will make for a lot of disappointed conservatives.

All that said, whether or not Ayers comes up again, the McCain campaign hasn't stopped with its strategy of painting Obama as a risky and vaguely sinister unknown. The campaign released an ad this morning asking, "who is Barack Obama?," and concluding, "Mr. Obama, we all know the truth."

McCain Ad: "We All Know The Truth" About Obama's Extreme Liberalism
The new post-debate McCain ad doesn't use any debate footage, but is instead a more general spot going after Obama for being a liberal -- and for having something to hide:

"Mr. Obama, we all know the truth," the announcer says sternly.

New Obama Ad: McCain's Health Plan Giveth -- Then Taketh Away
The Obama campaign has a new ad using footage from the debate, continuing their push against John McCain's health-care plan -- something they've clearly identified as an effective wedge issue in the battle for working-class voters:

"He says that he's going to give you a $5,000 tax credit," Obama says. "What he doesn't tell you is that he's going to tax your employer based health care benefits, for the first time ever. So what one hand giveth, the other hand taketh away."

Barack Obama In Indiana, Michelle In New Hampshire, Biden In Florida
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Indiana, with a rally set to begin at 12:15 p.m. ET. Michelle Obama is holding an 11:30 a.m. ET rally in Keene, New Hampshire. Joe Biden is back on the campaign trail today, with an 8:30 a.m. ET community event in Tampa, Florida, and a 5:30 p.m. ET community event in Fort Myers, Florida.

GOP Ticket In Ohio And Pennsylvania
John McCain and Sarah Palin will be holding a rally today in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Then they're off to Strongsville, Ohio, for another joint rally at 5:15 p.m. ET.

Poll: McCain Narrowly Ahead In North Carolina
The new SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina gives John McCain a 49%-46% lead here, within the ±4% margin of error. On the one hand, this is better for McCain than other recent polls showing Barack Obama taking the lead in this Southern state -- but it's not as good as SurveyUSA poll from a month ago, which gave him a 20-point lead.

Polls: Obama Up Ten Points In Wisconsin
Two new polls are giving Barack Obama ten-point leads in Wisconsin, a state that only just barely voted for Al Gore and John Kerry. From SurveyUSA: Obama 52%, McCain 42%. And from Rasmussen: Obama 54%, McCain 44%.

New York Times Condemns McCain
The New York Times has a new editorial today lambasting what has become of the McCain campaign. "They have gone far beyond the usual fare of quotes taken out of context and distortions of an opponent's record -- into the dark territory of race-baiting and xenophobia," the Times says. "Senator Barack Obama has taken some cheap shots at Mr. McCain, but there is no comparison."

The debate's relatively low-key tone, combined with a series of exchanges that Obama won by at minimum a marginal amount, translate into a clear, even decisive win for Obama tonight. There's no point in mincing words: Time is running out for McCain.

As multiple observers have pointed out, McCain needed to jar the electorate into seeing this race in a new way. It isn't even clear if McCain even tried to do this tonight -- there was no moment where he appeared to make an aggressive bid to take down Obama or grab the initiative. McCain did try to hit Obama by saying that the presidency is no time for "on the job training," but the attack was a stale one that we've heard before. There was no mention of the words "William Ayers."

The subdued tone of the debate was partly a function of tonight's format -- one that McCain's people, ironically, wanted and saw as playing to his strengths. But it hamstrung McCain from doing what he needed to do tonight. The format placed the onus on the candidates to "connect" with voters, rather than to land haymakers on each other.

The first big test for both candidates, tellingly, came not from an exchange between the two but from a voter's question. Teresa asked why we should trust either party when they'd both landed us in this mess. It was an invitation for the candidates to reproduce Bill Clinton's famous moment in the 1992 debate against George H.W. Bush, when he approached a questioner and spoke directly to her economic distress. Both failed the Bill test, but any draws at this point favor Obama, as did the focus on anyone but each other.

The candidates, aware of the constraints of being in an intimate setting with voters, edged into attacking each other, and even there, Obama, at a minimum, held his own.

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The post-debate snap polls are out, showing that Barack Obama won the debate.

In CNN's poll of debate-watchers, Obama won by a 54%-30% margin. In the CBS poll of uncommitted debate-watchers, Obama won 39%-27%.

The CNN poll's numbers were just read on TV, showing that Obama is seen as better on Iraq by 51%-47%, McCain has a 51%-46% edge on terrorism -- a subject where he's usually done much better than this -- and Obama wins 59%-37% on the economy. On the current financial crisis, Obama wins 57%-36%

Both the first presidential debate and the Veep debate showed the Dem winning -- and both were followed by the Democratic ticket gaining more and more in the polls.

Late Update: Some more numbers from the CNN poll were read just now on the air: Obama is seen as the stronger leader 54%-43%, and is more likable 65%-28%.

Obama, in response to McCain's criticism of his declaration that he'd pursue Bin Laden into Pakistan, plays the hothead card by pointing to the "bomb bomb bomb Iran" moment, in what seemed like a response Obama had prepared in advance:

Now, Senator suggests that somehow I'm green behind the ears, and I'm just spouting off, and he's somber and responsible.

Senator McCain, this is the guy who sang "bomb bomb bomb Iran." Who called for the annihilation of North Korea. That I don't think is an example of speaking softly. This is the guy who after we had -- we hadn't even finished Afghanistan -- he said, "next up Baghdad."

An interesting dynamic: The heavy focus on economics tonight allows Obama to more directly criticize the Iraq War in economic terms, focusing on the huge amount of money we're spending on it, something that is probably way more vivid given the economic meltdown than it once might have been.

Obama, in the context of the night's argument about the economy, made the case against the war as a strain on our economy, pointing out that we're spending $10 billion a month and are on track to spending over a trillion dollars overall.

Notably, CNN's dial charts were soaring during that stretch.

Right now, Obama seems to be winning, and even if he does prevail by a modest margin, it's a huge loss for McCain.

The exchange over the candidates' tax policies strikes me as a critical one, and not just because McCain managed to introduce an element of Obama-as-scary-unknown into a discussion of tax policy:

Senator Obama's secret that you don't know is that his tax increases will increase taxes on 50% of small business revenue. Small businesses across America will have to cut jobs, and will have their taxes increased, and won't be able to hire, because of Senator Obama's tax policies.

The key moment came when Obama got a chance to directly confront these claims, which he did, at length, and convincingly, too.

Obama also said: "The Straight Talk Express lost a wheel on that one."

One of the most famous moments in recent political history came when Bill Clinton, during a 1992 debate with George H.W. Bush, approached an ordinary voter in the audience and asked her to reiterate just what she had gone through.

Tonight's town hall seemed to offer the potential for such moments, where the test is whether the candidate can relate to people's economic suffering. And a voter named Teresa just created that opening, asking the candidates why people should trust either party when they'd both landed us in this mess.

Both candidates responded by taking steps towards Teresa, just as Bill did. Obama said:

Well, look, I understand your frustration and your cynicism, because while you've been carrying out your responsibilities, most of the people here -- you've got a family budget. If less money's coming in you end up making cuts. Maybe you don't go out to dinner as much. Maybe you put off buying a new car. That's not what happens in Washington. And you're right -- there's a lot of blame to go around.

Obama then talked about the recent history of the Republican Party and how it had turned a surplus into an enormous deficit. McCain also approached the voter, made emotional overtures, and directly attacked Obama:

Senator Obama has never taken on the leaders of his party on a single issue. And we need to reform. So let's look at our records as well as our rhetoric -- that's really part of your mistrust here. And now I suggest that maybe you go to some of these organizations that are the watchdogs of what we do. Like the citizens against govt waste or the national taxpayer's union or these other orgs that watch us all the time -- I don't expect you to watch every vote. And you know what you'll find: this is the most liberal big-spending record in the United States Senate.

It's fair to say that neither candidate quite rose to Bill's performance. That said, Obama drew a difference between the two parties' ideologies on the economy, while McCain sank to a bogus negative attack.

The debate is underway, and the first exchange is a bit of a surprise: Obama gets in an attack, and McCain, who was expected to go after Obama aggressively, doesn't.

Obama hits McCain for having supporting the deregulatory policies that have created our current mess.

"I believe this is a final verdict on the failed economic policies of the last eight years, strongly promoted by President Bush and supported by Senator McCain that essentially said that we should strip away regulation, consumer protections, let the market run wild, and prosperity would rain down on all of us," Obama said, right on message. "It hasn't worked out that way, and so now we've got to take some decisive action."

McCain, by contrast, gets in a dig on Obama for not agreeing to previous town halls, but in his first answer, avoids directly faulting Obama on a policy level.

Late Update: McCain just hit Obama squarely over Fannie and Freddie, claiming his call for action on the mortgage giants shows he was out front on the crisis. Obama responded by reminding folks that deregulation, not Fannie and Freddie, was at the root of the problem, and that McCain's record on Fannie and Freddie isn't what he says it was.

In case you haven't read these elsewhere today, here are the rules for tonight's debate.

Tom Brokaw's role as the moderator will take a backseat to the true hosts of this debate: The audience, made up of undecided voters. Brokaw will select an audience member, and then that person will get to pitch his or her pre-submitted question.

The candidates will then have two minutes each to answer the voter's question, followed by Brokaw moderating a one-minute free-form discussion between Obama and McCain, and possibly asking follow-up questions.

The candidates aren't dealing primarily with some well-known TV personality in a suit, but instead with real-live voters, whose own reactions and presentations can have just as much of effect on the race as the candidates' own answers.

We'll be live-blogging the debate here at Election Central.

Senior McCain advisers have flatly declared that they want the subject of the campaign changed from the economic crisis to Barack Obama's past associations and the various things that allegedly make Obama a "risky" choice.

So the question going into tonight's debate is this: Will moderator Tom Brokaw let McCain do this? For that matter, will Brokaw himself ask about former Weatherman William Ayers?

And if the discussion does shift over to Obama's relationship with Ayers -- whether due to Brokaw's questioning or McCain's attacks -- will Brokaw play the association game fairly and ask about the Keating Five scandal?

No one is questioning Brokaw's professionalism or impartiality, but keep in mind that Brokaw has taken on a behind-the-scenes role as a kind of emissary to the McCain campaign for NBC, suggesting he may be sympathetic to the McCain team's claims that McCain has been treated unfairly by the media.

What's more, Brokaw has indicated that he may be less than sympathetic to efforts to recall McCain's role in the Keating Five scandal. He recently agreed with an assessment of the scandal as "ancient history."

One interesting side note: The McCain team would probably prefer that McCain not be the one to bring up Ayers, since that will allow Obama to remind everyone that McCain's own adviser said they were hoping to turn the page past the crisis and get back to explaining why Obama is "risky." That makes the question of whether Brokaw will bring up Ayers more pressing.

We'll be blogging the debate right here at Election Central.

Late Update: John Aravosis makes the key point that the suggestion yesterday by McCain's lawyer that McCain did nothing wrong amid Keating Five might make questions about his role newly relevant.

Here's tonight's run-down of the Congressional races:

New Dem Ad Dramatizes FBI Monitoring Ted Stevens
Check out this stunning new ad from the DSCC, depicting fictional FBI agents monitoring indicted Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) and listing his alleged crimes:

"And I voted for him," says a disappointed fictional agent.

Poll: Stevens Regains Narrow Lead In Alaska
A new Rasmussen poll has indicted Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) taking a narrow 49%-48% lead over Democrat Mark Begich, helped in now small part by the presence of the state's favorite daughter Sarah Palin on the GOP ticket. But Uncle Ted is hardly out of the woods yet -- there's a chance he could be convicted of a felony before Election Day, which would probably impact his numbers in a negative fashion.

Read more »

In a much discussed story, the Associated Press reported today that John McCain served in the mid-1980s on the advisory board of a right-wing group called the Council for World Freedom, which has been controversial because of the group's aid to the Nicaraguan Contras and the presence of anti-Semites in its ranks.

Now we've gotten a hold of another fun little nugget that shows how whacked out this group really is: A newsletter from the group from July 1985 that lashed out at people who criticized Ronald Reagan for visiting the Bitburg cemetery in Germany, which includes the graves of members of the SS.

The Reagan visit was widely controversial among Jews, but the Council newsletter -- which you can view right here -- was less than charitable towards Reagan's Jewish critics.

"Those misguided souls who accused President Reagan of insensitivity for visiting the German cemetery at Bitburg are wallowing in tears of pity over the past crimes of the Nazi regime which collapsed over 40 years ago," the newsletter said. "They claim they want to keep the memory of the holocaust alive so that it can never happen again."

"Crocodile tears! It is happening again," the newsletter continues, "and again, and again, right now, in the modern world; only the crimes of today are not being perpetrated by the Nazis but by their philosophical and demoniacal soulmates, the communists."

McCain reportedly was still associating with the group a few months later: A States News Service article from October 15, 1985, found via Nexis, confirms that McCain was on hand at a Council awards dinner.

McCain told the AP that he resigned the group's advisory board in 1984, and eventually asked to have his name removed from the letterhead. But the State News Service article places him at a group dinner a year later.

The reason this is worth noting is that John McCain has been attacking Barack Obama over Obama's minor ties to former 60s radical Bill Ayers -- putting associations like these into play.

Read more »

For the first time, both Clintons will campaign together for the Obama-Biden ticket.

Hillary and Bill will be campaigning alongside Joe Biden this Sunday at an event in Scranton, Pennsylvania, according to Obama Pennsylvania spokesperson Sean Smith.

Polls have been showing Obama-Biden starting to pull away in the Pennsylvania -- and that's before any appearance by the Clintons in the state.

The Clintons will hammer away at economic themes in their speeches at the Sunday rally, and they are likely to play up the roots in the Scranton area that both Hillary and Biden share. Further details will be announced later in the week.

As I noted below, in his piece today about the abuse that Palin supporters heaped on reporters at a Florida rally yesterday, WaPo's Dana Milbank wrote that one supporter had hurled an unspecified racial epithet at an African American sound man before saying, "sit down, boy."

A reporter who was there tells me what that unspecified epithet was: "Uppity negro."

Late Update: I should have made it clearer that this happened at a rally where Palin was stoking anger by attacking Katie Couric and the "mainstream media."

More polls today show Barack Obama leading in some key red states:

• In Ohio, Public Policy Polling (D) gives Obama a 49%-43% lead over John McCain, with a ±2.8% margin of error. Three weeks ago, PPP had McCain ahead 48%-44%. Take this as further evidence to suggest that the economic crisis is knocking John McCain down in a lot of places.

• In Florida, Mason-Dixon gives Obama a narrow lead of 48%-46%, within the ±4% margin of error, not significantly changed from a 47%-45% Obama lead two-and-a-half weeks ago.

• In Nevada, Research 2000 has Obama ahead 50%-43%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Obama had slim edge of 44%-43%.

All totaled, these three states have 52 electoral votes, and they all voted for George W. Bush in 2004.

Dana Milbank -- the Washington Post reporter who wrote this morning's piece about the Palin crowd's disgusting abuse of reporters at a rally yesterday -- tells me that the McCain camp's repeated attacks on the media have spawned crowd hostility towards the press that's running at a "degree of intensity" he's never experienced in covering presidential politics.

As Milbank wrote, one Palin supporter hurled an unspecified racial epithet at an African American sound man, and told him: "Sit down, boy."

I checked in with Milbank to get a bit more on what happened yesterday, because the ugliness unleashed by McCain-Palin's nasty crowd-riling tactics are becoming a story in this campaign.

"None of this is new, but the degree of intensity is different," Milbank says. "It's taken an uglier turn. I've been doing this for years, and there's never been anything quite like this."

Milbank says that after the Palin attacked the New York Times and Katie Couric in her stump speech yesterday in Florida, he and other reporters were pelted with boos, with some saying things like "screw you" and "fucking liberal media."

"McCain has so overtly taken on the media -- they're doing it to rile the base," he continued. "And lo and behold, the base is good and riled."

Lots of people are linking to this piece by New York magazine's John Heilemann, which takes a crack at explaining how exactly McCain squandered his "maverick" brand.

Heliemann's basic point is that McCain's repeated campaign stunts, his choice of Sarah Palin, and his dishonest adver-sleazements conspired to produce a kind of tipping-point for the press. The media went into revolt and painted the suspension stunt for the ruse it was, hurting McCain on the most important issue right now: The economic crisis.

"By the time the financial crisis hit, we were past the tipping point," one national reporter explains to Heilemann. "Lipstick on a pig and sex ed were the last straw for some of McCain's old hands and media allies. And because of this cynicism, he didn't get the benefit of the doubt for his 'suspension,' and it was treated as the stunt it was."

Heilemann makes some solid points. But his analysis overlooks two other important factors -- ones that will in retrospect be viewed as critical should Obama win.

Read more »

Here's our daily composite of the four major national tracking polls. The race is in essentially the same place as yesterday, with Barack Obama ahead by a strong margin going into tonight's debate:

• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead yesterday. This is Obama's widest lead in the Gallup poll for this whole campaign so far.

• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. This is also Obama's new all-time highest lead in Rasmussen.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 46%, McCain 44%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 47%-41% Obama lead yesterday. Note: This poll's partisan weighting a few days ago was 41% Dem to 36% GOP, but has been changed to 40% Dem and 38% GOP.

• Research 2000: Obama 52, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-40% lead yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.6%-42.8%, compared to a 50.5%-42.1% lead yesterday. John McCain has picked up over half a point, but Obama hasn't actually lost any support -- he may even have gained slightly.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Pennsylvania suggests that this big Dem-leaning swing state, where John McCain has been making a major play, may have slipped away from him for good.

The numbers: Obama 55%, McCain 40%. Obama is ahead 52%-43% among men, ahead 57%-38% with women, and even leads 49%-45% among white voters.

The McCain campaign had high hopes that they could take advantage of Obama's problems with working-class whites during the state's primary. But more and more polls, such as Muhlenberg, Quinnipiac and Rasmussen, are showing Obama way ahead here.

Here's a story that's just starting to get noticed: Ohio seemed like a McCain state in September, but economic jitters and the final dissipation of McCain's convention bounce have now edged Obama into the lead in almost all of the recent polls:

• CNN: Obama 50%, McCain 47% (Oct 7)

• ABC/WaPo: Obama 51%, McCain 45% (Oct 6)

• Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47% (Oct 6)

• Columbus Dispatch: Obama 49%, McCain 42% (Oct 5)

• GQR (D): Obama 49%, McCain 43% (Oct 1)

• Quinnipiac: Obama 50%, McCain 42% (Oct 1)

Ohio was rated as "Leans McCain" over at Pollster.com just a few weeks ago, but as of this morning it's now been reclassified as "Leans Obama."

Bonus finding: The internals from the ABC/WaPo seem to disprove people who say Obama's candidacy is based on fluff. Among those respondents who say personal qualities are the most important, it's McCain who is winning by a 62%-34% margin. Those voters who say they're picking their candidate based on the issues are going to Obama 65%-30%.

Veterans Group To McConnell: Take Down Ad That Uses Our Name
The Military Order of the Purple Heart is demanding that the campaign of Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell pull an ad in which a McConnell supporter identifies himself as a member of the organization and appears to speak on its behalf:

"I am a member of the Military Order of the Purple Heart, the official organization of combat-wounded veterans," says Lee Moore. "Our veterans demand an investigation into the negligent care that Bruce Lunsford's clinics provided." Moore then goes on to accuse Lunsford of manipulating an 83-year old veteran who appeared in a Lunsford ad defending the candidate. Lee Moore is not a spokesman for the group, and furthermore its bylaws forbid it from being involved in partisan politics.

Poll: Dem Narrowly Ahead For Heather Wilson's House Seat
A new Albuquerque Journal poll shows a close race for the open seat of Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM), who left the seat open when she ran unsuccessfully in the GOP primary for the Senate. The numbers: Democratic Martin Heinrich 43%, Republican Darren White 41%, within the ±4.9% margin of error.

Read more »

Here, courtesy of the new NBC/WSJ poll's internals, are some key numbers to chew over as we head into tonight's debate:

* Thirty-four percent feel more reassured by Obama's approach to dealing with the current financial crisis, versus 25% for McCain. Meanwhile, only 29% feel less reassured by Obama, versus 38% for McCain.

* Obama-Biden slaughtered McCain-Palin in the last two debates, with 50% saying Obama-Biden did a better job, versus only 29% for McCain-Palin.

* Obama's advantage on the economy in general is formidable: 46% say Obama would be better on that issue, versus 29% for McCain.

* Obama holds a sizable edge on other domestic issues polled here, including the mortgage and housing crisis, and energy and the cost of gas.

The upshot: As many others have observed, the pressure on McCain tonight to do something to jolt the electorate into seeing this race in a new way is now enormous. The race's dynamic is hardening by the hour: The public has gotten a close look at the candidates in debate settings, and feel more reassured by Obama-Biden on the issues that matter to them.

The problem for McCain is that he needs to go hard-negative in a dramatic, confrontational, attention-grabbing fashion, most likely on Obama's associations, which of course risks looking desperate and allows Obama to remind voters that McCain's own senior adviser said the McCain team doesn't want to talk about the economic crisis.

Tonight's debate, and the public's response to it, will tell us whether the race has come to resemble quicksand: The more McCain and Palin thrash around, the quicker they sink.

Sarah Palin's frequent attacks on the media are now stoking so much outrage among her supporters that they've now taken to abusing reporters:

Palin's routine attacks on the media have begun to spill into ugliness. In Clearwater, arriving reporters were greeted with shouts and taunts by the crowd of about 3,000. Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric's questions for her "less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media." At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thunder sticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African American sound man for a network and told him, "Sit down, boy."

Palin's ugly attacks, her non-stop lying, and her glaring buffoonery and incompetence are all the media's fault! It is pretty outrageous, this liberal media conspiracy to report accurately on what Palin says and does as she asks us to put her a heartbeat away from being steward of our troubled economy and controlling the most powerful military in human history.

Tonight: The Second Presidential Debate
Barack Obama and John McCain are meeting tonight in Nashville, Tennessee, for their second debate. The debate will be conducted in a town-hall format, and will begin at 9 p.m. ET.

Obama Ad: McCain "Out Of Ideas, Out Of Touch"
The Obama campaign has this new ad, set to air on national cable, saying that John McCain is trying to change the subject away from the economy with his smears against Barack Obama:

"He's out of ideas, out of touch, and running out of time," the announcer says. "But with no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain wants to tear Barack Obama down."

McCain Ad: Obama "Hypocritical" On Smear Ads
This new McCain ad, set to air nationally, calls Barack Obama a hypocrite for complaining about misleading TV ads, only to run misleading ads of his own:

"Barack Obama. He promised better," the announcer says. "He lied."

Polls: Obama Up In Battleground States
A new set of CNN polls shows Barack Obama running strong in four key swing states: Obama is up 53%-45% in New Hampshire, 50%-47% in Ohio, 51%-46% in Wisconsin, and is tied with John McCain 49%-49% in North Carolina. The only real bright spot for McCain in this batch is Indiana, where he has a 51%-46% lead.

Michelle Obama In North Carolina, Biden Off The Trail
Michelle Obama will hold a rally today in Jacksonville, North Carolina, set to begin at 1:30 p.m. ET. Joe Biden is still off the campaign trail for today, as his family mourns the death of his mother-in-law.

Palin Touring Florida And North Carolina
Sarah Palin is continuing her tour of the South, with stops today in several Republican stronghold areas within key battleground states. Palin has a 10 a.m. ET rally in Jacksonville, Florida, a 3:30 p.m. ET rally in Pensacola, Florida, and a 7 p.m. ET rally in Greenville, North Carolina.

Hagel's Wife To Formally Endorse Obama
Lilibet Hagel, the wife of GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel, will formally endorse Barack Obama at a press conference in Alexandria, Virginia. On the one hand, it's been a matter of public record that Mrs. Hagel has donated to Obama -- but this will be viewed by many in the media as a sign that Sen. Hagel himself is supporting Obama.

Anti-Obama Author Detained In Kenya
Jerome Corsi, author of the anti-Obama smear book The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality, has been detained by authorities in Kenya as he set out to conduct a book tour there. Authorities there say Corsi does not have a work permit for his tour.

A new round of SurveyUSA polls, commissioned by Roll Call, suggests that Democrats are poised to sweep those House races this year that are competitive rematches from 2006.

Some of these races are Democratic gains from 2006, in which candidates defeated Republican incumbents or picked up open seats. Some of them were Republican retentions that year, where the incumbents fended off challengers who are trying again this year. In all seven of these case, the Democrats are winning:

• IL-10: Democrat Dan Seals, who lost a race to GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, may be successful in riding Barack Obama's local coattails. The numbers: Seals 52%, Kirk 44%.

• IN-09: Rep. Baron Hill (D) has faced GOPer Mike Sodrel in every race since 2002. Hill narrowly won in 2002, then Sodrel won in 2004, then Hill came back and defeated Sodrel in 2006. The numbers now: Hill 53%, Sodrel 38%.

• NH-01: Freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) defeated Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley in a huge upset in 2006, and Bradley never really stopped running. The numbers in this poll: Shea-Porter 50%, Bradley 41%.

• NY-29: Democrat Eric Massa, a Navy veteran and former military aide to Wes Clark, narrowly lost to Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) in 2006. The current numbers from SurveyUSA: Massa 51%, Kuhl 44%.

• NC-08: Democrat Larry Kissell lost after a recount in 2006 to Rep. Robin Hayes. The new poll: Kissell 49%, Hayes 41%.

• PA-04: Freshman Rep. Jason Altmire (D) defeated GOP Rep. Melissa Hart in an upset in 2006, and Hart is trying for a comeback. The new poll: Altmire 54%, Hart 42%.

• WI-08: Democratic physician and businessman Steven Kagen picked up this seat for the Democrats in an open-seat race against then-state House Speaker John Gard, in a 51%-49% race. Gard soon started running again. The new poll: Kagen 54%, Gard 43%.

If these numbers hold up through Election Day, it's going to be a long night for the House Republicans.

A new set of polls from Rasmussen shows Barack Obama further dominating in key swing states -- though McCain retains an edge in Ohio for this particular firm:

• Colorado: Obama ahead 51%-45%, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, Obama had a narrower 49%-48% edge.

• Florida: Obama up 52%-45%, outside the ±3% margin of error. Last week, the two candidates were tied at 47% each.

• Missouri: Obama up 50%-47%, within the ±3% margin of error. Three weeks ago, McCain was ahead 51%-46%.

• Ohio: McCain with a 48%-47% edge, with a ±3% margin of error. Last week, McCain was up 47%-46%, pretty much the same as now.

• Virginia: Obama up 50%-48%, within the ±3% margin of error, not all that different from Obama's 50%-47% lead a week ago.

All five of these states voted for George W. Bush in 2004, and all totaled they have 80 electoral votes. If John McCain were to lose even one from the Republican column, winning would become extremely difficult.

Here's tonight's run-down on the Congressional races:

Poll: GOP Senator Chambliss In Dead Heat For Re-Election
In a very interesting development, a new Research 2000 poll gives Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), who was believed to be more or less invulnerable going into this campaign, a statistically insignificant lead of 45%-44% over Democrat Jim Martin. This corroborates a SurveyUSA poll taken last week, which put Chambliss ahead 46%-44%, as the economy continues to take a toll on Republicans even in seemingly safe places.

Dem Candidate Ties GOP Incumbent To Bush -- And Tuxedo-Wearing
This new ad from Senate candidate Jeff Merkley (D-OR) launches one of the most novel attacks on the economy that I've ever seen: It depicts incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith (R) standing next to George W. Bush -- and they're both wearing tuxedos:

Maybe next, Merkley will run an ad tying Gordon Smith to the Monopoly Man.

Read more »

After John McCain delivered the central question of his speech today -- "Who is the real Barack Obama?" -- the first, and loudest, supporter seems to yell:

"Terrorist!"

That's what John Aravosis and Marc Ambinder heard, and it does sound like it.

McCain seemed to pause, and didn't denounce the epithet. I'd argue that there's no way to arrive at a conclusive answer as to whether he heard it or not, short of asking him and getting a frank answer. McCain could have been pausing to admire the pith and artfulness of his smear, or to bask in the adulation it brought. And McCain is not responsible for what some whackjob yells at his rally.

That said, the moment is uncomfortably revealing: McCain is now dabbling in the tactics employed in the most viral smears of Obama, if not to the same degree. No honest observer would dispute that McCain's speech today was about sowing fears of Obama as a risky, unknown, and vaguely sinister "other," and this supporter, at least, read the subtext, intended or not, loud and clear. And when McCain delivered that line there was a gratified, even visceral roar from McCain supporters, as if this attack -- fear the alien in our midst! -- was the gloves-off moment they'd been waiting for.

Counter-terrorism expert Richard Clarke dares to broach publicly the scenario that most will only discuss in private: The possibility of a terror attack, or the release of another Bin Laden tape, right on the eve of the election:

U.S. intelligence and security officials are worried. They admit that there is nothing concrete that suggests another attack, but they fear that al Qaeda may try something, maybe even in the United States...

At the very least, expect another Halloween video from the scary man in the cave...

Even more likely is the possibility that al Qaeda would hope the attack would benefit John McCain. Opinion polls, which, as noted above, al Qaeda reads closely, suggest that an attack would help McCain. Polls in Europe and the Middle East also suggest an overwhelming popular support there for Barack Obama. Al Qaeda would not like it if there were a popular American president again.

When dealing with this topic, it's always worth recalling that CIA analysts reportedly did conclude that Bin Laden had released the tape in order to help Bush stay in power, partly because his presidency made such a handy recruiting tool.

John Kerry has said that the Bin Laden tape released days before Election Day 2004 helped tip the election to Bush. But Kerry and his aides were caught off guard, and even alarmed, by the surfacing of the tape. One imagines -- indeed, one has no doubt -- that the Obama team is already thinking this through right now.

(Via Matthew Yglesias, whose new book on foreign policy and Democrats comes heartily recommended by this blog.)

Yet another poll is showing Barack Obama ahead in North Carolina, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976.

The new numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.8% margin of error. A week ago, PPP had Obama up 47%-45%, a lead that appears to be increasing. The poll also shows that 60% of voters say the economy is their biggest issue, and this group is going for Obama by a 60%-34% margin.

Three separate pollsters have been giving Obama the lead here: PPP, Rasmussen and Elon University.

You can sense a palpable shift of tone in the remarks that John McCain is now delivering in New Mexico -- a new level of frustration, combined with his most overt implication yet that there's something vaguely different, and perhaps sinister, about Obama that you just can't put a finger on.

From the prepared remarks:

My opponent has invited serious questioning by announcing a few weeks ago that he would quote -- "take off the gloves." Since then, whenever I have questioned his policies or his record, he has called me a liar.

Rather than answer his critics, Senator Obama will try to distract you from noticing that he never answers the serious and legitimate questions he has been asked. But let me reply in the plainest terms I know. I don't need lessons about telling the truth to American people. And were I ever to need any improvement in that regard, I probably wouldn't seek advice from a Chicago politician.

My opponent's touchiness every time he is questioned about his record should make us only more concerned. For a guy who's already authored two memoirs, he's not exactly an open book. It's as if somehow the usual rules don't apply, and where other candidates have to explain themselves and their records, Senator Obama seems to think he is above all that. Whatever the question, whatever the issue, there's always a back story with Senator Obama. All people want to know is: What has this man ever actually accomplished in government? What does he plan for America? In short: Who is the real Barack Obama?

The tone of frustration here is unmistakable. But put that aside for a sec. This is something of a new tack for McCain in defending himself against those who point out his campaign's non-stop mendacity. McCain's new claim is that the charge of dishonesty comes from Obama alone, and that it's borne of a desire on Obama's part to avoid legit questions about his background, the implication being that there's something shadowy about it that he's trying to conceal.

Unfortunately for McCain, the charges of lying have come not just from the Obama campaign, but from literally dozens of news and fact-checking organizations.

Also note how McCain, under the guise of asking legit questions about Obama's record, slips in charged language designed to paint him as a scary unknown. "He's not exactly an open book." "There's always a back-story." "Who is the real Barack Obama?"

Oddly, when McCain delivered that last line there was a visceral roar from the crowd of McCain supporters, as if this attack -- there's an alien in our midst! -- has been the one they'd been waiting for.

Full text of McCain's remarks after the jump.

Read more »

Here's our daily composite of the four major national tracking polls for today. This is the first day of polls with data taken entirely after the Veep debate -- and Obama's lead just keeps getting bigger:

• Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead yesterday. This is Obama's biggest lead ever in the Rasmussen poll.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 47%-41% Obama lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.5%-42.1%. Note that Obama is not only up by over eight points, but he has climbed past the 50% mark.

At a campaign event in Virginia over the weekend, John McCain's brother, acting as a McCain surrogate, told a crowd that McCain would pursue Osama Bin Laden across the border into a country that hadn't granted us permission to do so, according to a tape made by a Democratic tracker that we've obtained.

McCain, of course, has ridiculed Obama for taking just that position with regard to Pakistan. And McCain recently had to disown comments by Sarah Palin, in which she expressed the same sentiment (albeit about Pakistan specifically) as the brother, Joe McCain, now has.

Joe made his gaffe at an event on Saturday in Loudoun County -- an event that's already drawn attention because Joe referred to northern Virginia Dem strongholds as "Communist country."

But the Bin Laden gaffe has gone unnoticed. Here's what Joe said, speaking of his brother and drawing applause:

"I do know that if he finds out where Osama is and I think we probably know, although I don't know personally -- he's just gonna go up to that country and say, `you have a murderer of thousands of Americans. I hope you help us get him. If not, just stand back, because we're coming in after him.' And that man will be brought to justice."

Here's audio:

The rub here is that McCain has repeatedly ridiculed Obama for declaring out loud what he'd do in such a situation, and has equated Obama's assertion that he'd pursue terrorists into Pakistan with a threat to invade and bomb that whole country. Now a prominent McCain surrogate has stated out loud that McCain would basically do the same thing to any country, ally or not.

No word yet from the McCain campaign on this.

For years, John McCain made elaborate displays of public contrition about his involvement in the Keating Five scandal, admitting that he made errors in judgment when he lobbied regulators on behalf of a corrupt banker who eventually went to prison. But now his campaign is suddenly saying that McCain did nothing wrong.

On a conference call with reporters this afternoon, held in response to the Obama campaign's ramped-up attacks on McCain's involvement in the scandal, the campaign brought out attorney John Dowd, who served as McCain's counsel at the time. Dowd declared that he vehemently disagreed with the judgment of the Senate Ethics Committee that McCain had made some serious mistakes. "That's not something that as his counsel I accepted," Dowd said.

Dowd singled out the late Sen. Howell Heflin (D-AL), who vocally criticized McCain at the time, for particular scorn. "But you know, Sen. Mitchell was the majority leader, and Howell Heflin was his stooge," said Dowd. "And he was doing what he was told because the rest were Democrats in the hearing. So it's sort of a classic political smear-job on John."

The odd thing is that McCain himself has written that the Keating Five period was a dark time in his life, and that he himself believed he'd made serious errors in judgment. So is it the McCain campaign's position that this contrition is no longer operative?

Here's the audio of the call:

Click To Play

A new set of polls out today shows Barack Obama with enormous leads in two of the most contested swing states this election:

• In Virginia, SurveyUSA has Obama up 53%-43%, up from a 51%-45% Obama lead two weeks ago. The key internal number: McCain now has only a 52%-43% lead among white voters, while Obama is up 86%-13% among blacks. Also, the new Suffolk poll puts Obama ahead 51%-39%.

• In New Hampshire, SurveyUSA gives Obama a 53%-40% lead. This is consistent with other recent polls from Rasmussen and St. Anselm, showing this former Republican stronghold slipping away for McCain.

Both of these states have been Republican areas until just recently -- Virginia hasn't gone Dem since the 1964 LBJ landslide, and New Hampshire only voted narrowly for Kerry in 2004 after having voted for Bush in 2000.

The McCain campaign is rolling out attorney John Dowd to purportedly "set the record straight" on a campaign conference call about McCain and the Keating Five scandal.

So it seems worth recalling that Dowd actually endorsed Fred Thompson during the GOP primary, revealing that he was "very sorry" about the campaign McCain was running and lamenting that "we lost the John McCain I knew."

From The Washington Post, June 8, 2007...

John Dowd represented Sen. John McCain in his darkest hour, the "Keating Five" scandal. He supported McCain the first time he ran for president in 2000 and signed up to be a major fundraiser for him in this year's presidential race. But when former senator Fred D. Thompson began thinking about running, the Washington lawyer changed his mind...

"I am very sorry to see what's happened to John," Dowd said in an interview. "I don't think his campaign is being well run. It's been over-managed. He blew through $8 1/2 million. It's a difficult thing to leave a friend and go to another friend. But we lost the John McCain I knew."

If Dowd was saying this way back in June of 2007, imagine what he must really think now...

Late Update: The conference call is underway, and John Aravosis brings you the first wave of absurdity.

Working America, the arm of the AFL-CIO that does outreach to nonunion workers, keeps up the economic assault on John McCain with another huge, hard-hitting mailing targeting the battleground states (click to enlarge):

Also, in an interesting experiment, the AFL-CIO tells me that they'll be emailing this video out to a list that includes thousands of Republicans and Independents in the swing states -- "a persuasion piece," as AFL spokesperson Steve Smith puts it.

The thing to keep in mind is that the ratcheted up activity by the big unions is driven partly by the fact that their own internal polling indicates that the race is much more volatile in the battlegrounds than public polls suggest, and that low-info voters there tend to be surprised when they learn the truth about McCain's economic proposals.

Late Update: The mail piece is going out to more than a million swing-state households, and the vid is the first in a three part series.

The Obama campaign rolls out a military man, John Natham, who retired as a four-star admiral after four decades in the Navy, to respond to McCain's adver-sleazement hitting Obama as "dangerous" and "dishonorable to our troops":

"As a recently retired Admiral, I know who has the strongest record of supporting the men and women currently serving in our military. Senator Obama has consistently voted to fund our troops in Afghanistan and Iraq and, just as importantly, a proven record of support when they return home. That's why independent veterans organizations give Senator Obama higher marks than Senator McCain. Despite consistent distortions of his record, thousands of veterans like myself support Senator Obama because he has the judgment, character and integrity to be a great president. We will need a great president to lead us in these very challenging times."

With McCain telegraphing a coming assault on Obama's fitness to be president, you've got to think we'll be seeing more retired military brass attesting not just to Obama's judgment and support for vets, but to his readiness to serve as commander in chief.

Here's today's rundown on the Congressional races.

Franken: My Ads Are About Norm Coleman's Record -- So They're Negative
Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) debated last night against Al Franken and Independency Party candidate Dean Barkley. Franken got off this zinger when asked what he would do about negative ads that have taken over the race on all sides: "We've been running ads against Norm Coleman's record. So they're negative."

Franken: I'll Keep On Impersonating Wellstone
At a rally over the weekend featuring Al Gore, Al Franken declared that he would not be deterred from doing his goofy impression of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone, who would manically shout "You can take this guy!" at his son's track and field meets. The GOP has been using video of Franken impersonating his departed friend and twisting it to look like Franken himself was being crazy and unstable.

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Sarah Palin has now attacked Barack Obama over his association with Reverend Wright -- even though John McCain himself explicitly said this spring that Wright was off limits and that attacking Obama over his former minister was "not the message of my campaign."

Palin made her comments about Wright in a new interview with New York Times columnist Bill Kristol, after he asked her whether Wright was a legit issue.

"I don't know why that association isn't discussed more," Palin said, "because those were appalling things that that pastor had said about our great country, and to have sat in the pews for 20 years and listened to that -- with, I don't know, a sense of condoning it, I guess, because he didn't get up and leave -- to me, that does say something about character."

"I guess that would be a John McCain call on whether he wants to bring that up," Palin added.

But in April, when the North Carolina GOP released a TV ad on behalf of two local GOP candidates hitting Obama over Wright in terms virtually identical to those used by Palin here, McCain expressly condemned the attack and said his campaign wanted no part of it.

The ad attacked Obama as "too extreme," asserting that "for 20 years Barack Obama sat in his pew listening to his pastor." That's precisely the same point Palin made.

At the time, McCain his campaign called the North Carolina GOP and asked them to take down the ad.

"It's not the message of the Republican Party," McCain said then. "It's not the message of my campaign. I've pledged to conduct a respectful campaign."

When told that the N.C. party would continue to air the ad, McCain rejoined: "Unfortunately all I can do is, in as visible way as possible, is disassociate myself from that kind of campaigning."

So will McCain now disassociate himself from what Palin said? Or has McCain changed his mind and decided that the gutter attack on Wright he previously condemned in such high-minded terms is now a legit tactic for his campaign?

And if it's the latter, what's changed since then aside from the fact that his campaign is in trouble?

Sarah Palin continues attacking Obama's character and patriotism and raising William Ayers in Clearwater, Florida, this morning, though today she adds a new layer of dishonesty to the attack, taking a previous quote from an Obama adviser out of context to assert that Obama has lied about his closeness to the former Weatherman.

From the prepared remarks:

Barack Obama said Ayers was just someone in the neighborhood. But that's less than truthful. His own top advisor said they were, quote, "certainly friendly." In fact, Obama held one of the first meetings of his political career in Bill Ayers's home. And they've worked together on various projects in Chicago.

These are the same guys who think "patriotism" is paying higher taxes. (Remember what his running mate Joe Biden said!) This is not a man who sees America as you and I do -- as the greatest force for good in the world. This is someone who sees America as "imperfect enough" to work with a former domestic terrorist who targeted his own country.

The "certainly friendly" line is a reference to this interview with top Obama strategist David Axelrod. In it, he said:

"Bill Ayers lives in his neighborhood. Their kids attend the same school," he said. "They're certainly friendly, they know each other, as anyone whose kids go to school together."

Palin left out the qualifier, obviously. Separately, Palin's use of Ayers to question Obama's patriotism makes it perfectly legitimate to point out that Palin repeatedly courted a secessionist group founded by someone who openly professed his hatred for the American government and cursed our "damn flag." And Palin's husband was a member of the group for years.

More Palin excerpts after the jump.

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New McCain Ad: Obama "Dangerous" And "Dishonorable" To Our Troops
This new McCain TV ad, set to air nationally, goes after Barack Obama by taking his comments on Afghanistan seriously out of context:

"Who is Barack Obama? He says our troops in Afghanistan are 'just air-raiding villages and killing civilians," the announcer says, splicing in footage of Obama's mangled quote. "How dishonorable." In fact, Obama was talking about the need for more troops in Afghanistan, in order to avoid the situation he was talking about -- a real problem that has been acknowledged by President Bush, no less.

Dem Ticket Off The Trail Today
Barack Obama has no scheduled public events for today, as he is preparing for tomorrow's debate. Joe Biden is also off the trail, due to the passing of his mother-in-law over the weekend.

McCain In New Mexico, Palin In Florida
John McCain is campaigning today in Albuquerque, New Mexico, with a rally set for 2:15 p.m. ET. McCain will then head off to Nashville, Tennessee, ahead of tomorrow's debate, with his arrival scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Sarah Palin is campaigning today in Clearwater, Florida, with a rally scheduled to begin at 9 a.m. ET.

Palin: Let's Talk About Jeremiah Wright
In an interview with Bill Kristol, Sarah Palin said the campaign and media should be talking more about Jeremiah Wright: "To tell you the truth, Bill, I don't know why that association isn't discussed more, because those were appalling things that that pastor had said about our great country, and to have sat in the pews for 20 years and listened to that -- with, I don't know, a sense of condoning it, I guess, because he didn't get up and leave -- to me, that does say something about character. But, you know, I guess that would be a John McCain call on whether he wants to bring that up."

Albright To Palin: Don't Misquote Me
Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright is taking serious issue with Sarah Palin's misquotation of her at a rally on Saturday, declaring that "There's a place in Hell reserved for women who don't support other women." In fact, Albright pointed out to the Huffington Post, her original quote had absolutely nothing to do with partisan politics, but was about human rights for women across the globe.

L.A. Times Looks At McCain's Naval Aviation Record
In a further sign that a whole lot more dirt is going to be dug up on the candidates before this race is over, the Los Angeles Times reports that McCain's record as a Naval Aviator was marked by recklessness and avoidable accidents -- most notably the time he flew into power lines and caused a blackout in Southern Spain. "In today's military, a lapse in judgment that causes a crash can end a pilot's career," the paper says. "Though standards were looser and crashes more frequent in the 1960s, McCain's record stands out."

The Obama campaign is bringing out their latest salvo against the McCain campaign's decision to attack Obama's character. They've just put up a new Web site, KeatingEconomics.com, teasing a comprehensive attack on McCain's role in the Keating Five scandal.

Here's the teaser for what is being promoted as a full-length documentary on McCain's part in the last major banking crisis:

"Many of our fellow citizens apparently believe that your services were bought by Charles Keating," says the late Sen. Howell Heflin (D-AL), in some archive footage of the Keating Five hearings.

It's going to be a very interesting next four weeks, to say the least, as these two camps throw everything they've got at each other.

Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today. With two days of post-VP debate data within these three-day tracking polls, Barack Obama's is maintaining his big lead over John McCain:

• Gallup: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead yesterday.

• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead yesterday.

• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, unchanged from lead yesterday.

• Research 2000: Obama 52, McCain 40%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.4%-42.7% -- identical to his lead from yesterday. Note that Obama is not only up by nearly eight points, but is over the 50% mark.

McCain's Brother Insults Northern Virginia
At a rally in the Northern Virginia swing area of Loudon County, John McCain's brother Joe McCain referred to the Dem strongholds of Alexandria and Arlington as "communist country." "This was Joe McCain's unsuccessful attempt at humor," said a McCain spokeswoman. "John McCain and Sarah Palin are committed to winning the support of voters in Northern Virginia and understand the region's importance to victory statewide."

Obama In North Carolina, Biden Off The Trail
Barack Obama is campaigning today in Asheville, North Carolina, with a rally scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. ET. Joe Biden does not have any public events, having cancelled his weekend campaign schedule due to a family medical emergency.

Palin Holds Rally In Deep-Red Nebraska
Sarah Palin has a rally today in Omaha, Nebraska, set to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET. It seems odd that Palin would have to go to rev up the party base in a state that is guaranteed to go their way -- but in this case, it's because Nebraska splits its electoral votes by Congressional district, and the Obama camp has been making a play for this area. John McCain is off the campaign trail, preparing for Tuesday's debate.

HuffPo: Palin's Latest Line Against Obama Is A Long-Discredited Smear
The Huffington Post points out this morning that Sarah Palin has taken up a smear against Barack Obama that was discredited a year ago: That he said U.S. troops in Afghanistan were only killing civilians. In fact, Obama was addressing a problem that the White House and Pentagon have recognized as a serious concern, and the need to put more troops in Afghanistan in order to avoid such an impression becoming more widespread among the people there.

Poll: Obama Takes Big Lead In Ohio
The new Columbus Dispatch poll gives Barack Obama a 49%-42% lead in Ohio, outside of the ±2% margin of error. If Obama were to pick up Ohio for the Dems, it would become virtually impossible for John McCain to put together an Electoral College majority.

Poll: It's A Tie In Colorado
A new Mason-Dixon poll of Colorado shows a tied race in this key swing state, with Obama and McCain at 44% each. Back in August, Obama had a 45%-42% lead, not significantly different from this new number.

Poll: Obama Way Ahead In Minnesota
The new Star Tribune poll gives Barack Obama a 55%-37% lead in Minnesota, a state that hasn't voted GOP since 1972 but has been increasingly close in recent elections. A SurveyUSA poll from just a few days ago gave McCain a 47%-46% lead, and a CNN poll from a few days ago put Obama ahead 54%-43%, further complicating the picture here.

As part of its new big push on health care, the Obama campaign is unleashing a massive blitz of mailers attacking John McCain's plan, an assault that includes multiple mail pieces that do everything from accusing McCain of lying about his plan to quoting doctors fretting about McCain's approach.

The mail pieces -- all of which are going to households in the battleground states -- are in keeping with the Obama campaign's strategy of painting McCain as the economically risky and even frightening choice at a time when public anxiety is fixed squarely on the economy, just as public fears centered on national security in previous elections.

Here, for instance, is one that accuses McCain of deceptively concealing the real aims of his plan (click on the images to enlarge):

The other mailers after the jump.

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The Obama campaign just released a very tough ad hitting John McCain in advance for the barrage of adver-sleazements and attacks on Obama's character that the McCain team is readying:

The spot features that quote we highlighted here yesterday -- in which a McCain adviser admitted to The Washington Post that his campaign is "looking forward to turning the page on this financial crisis" and getting back to attacking Obama as too liberal and too "risky."

The ad opens with bad news about job losses and the financial meltdown, then hits him as "erratic in a crisis" and "out of touch."

"No wonder his campaign wants to change the subject -- turn the page on the financial crisis, by launching dishonest, dishonorable assaults against Barack Obama," the ad says. "Struggling families can't turn the page on this economy."

That "turning the page" quote really was a gift -- the perfect counter-weapon against the coming character assault. The ad will run on national cable -- though that's presumably subject to change -- suggesting that the immediate target audience is opinion-makers and political insiders who might be wondering what Obama is doing about the tidal wave of sleaze on the horizon.