I'm not surprised about Ohio. Lot's of racism. I disagree about the undecided white voters in all swing states going to John McCain though. See Colorado for example.

As long as Obama holds the Kerry states+IA,NM,CO he will win.

Hmm interesting especially as a poll from this same pollster will show (come sout tomorrow Taegan has story) Obama trending upwards and in the lead in Virginia. How can he be in trouble if Mccain loses virginia? Additionally another poll from ARG (yeh shaky track record for those bubbas) shows Obama back up in New Mex by 7. Colorado, Iowa, New Mex, Virginia? Suddenly Ohio doesnt seem as relevant anymore if and I know it is a big if Obama can hold Mich, PA, Minn and Mich then how undecideds trend in Ohio wont mean squat.

Maybe I'm just looking for silver linings, but Chuck Todd said this morning that all of these close swing state polls should be taken with a grain of salt because the Dems have run up huge numbers of new voters that may not show up in these polls. Also, Democratic votes in Ohio's cities in the last two elections have over-performed and may be even stronger this time with a motivated African American vote. Todd said that if Obama can shift rural counties from 70-30 McCain to 65-35 McCain, he should win the state. But, McCain does consistently poll ahead of Obama, so I guess we'll see.

Yes, I think it's safe to say that McCain is up in Ohio.

Guess I'll just have to make more phone calls.

Wonder if Ohio voters feel that the "fundamentals of the economy are strong"?

Bush-McCain, 08.

Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton. He can convince these voters that their lives and livelihoods are at stake in this election, black President be damned. Obama and Clinton need to make a swing through southern Ohio and up the eastern border into Youngstown, Canton, and Akron. Have Obama deliver his stump speech then have Clinton come out and vouch for him, or vice versa. The purely visceral visual of Obama next to Clinton will assuage a lot of fears and remind people that the 90s were gravy compared to now. Obama can still win Ohio, I think, but he's got to actually make a play for it and stop going to just Columbus and Cleveland and actually get out there on the ground.

From:

Head of State

http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/parachutes-away.html

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Parachutes Away!

From ABC News:

Republican ticket mates John McCain and Sarah Palin Monday blasted corporate executives who leave their company with a "golden parachute" and pledged to "stop multimillion dollar payouts" to CEOs, seeming to forget their own top economic adviser Carly Fiorina walked away with $45 million, including a $21.4 million severance package when she was dismissed by Hewlett Packard in 2005.

Cite:
Head of State
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/parachutes-away.html

If he couldn't muster a majority of voters in a party primary, what makes you think he can get a majority of votes in the general election?

The only aspect to remember over Ohio it's all the recent polls give McCain a 4 point lead. He maybe has the advantage but he can't put a bigger lead there. There's an opening there and it's up to keep registering new voters, maximize in the areas where the democrats have better appeal, use the early voting weeks to drive the college vote and try to minimize the damage in the troubling areas. Send Bill & Hillary Clinton there...

The game is not over until it's over.

Zephyrus: I understand there's a second poll that shows Obama within 5 in West Virginia.

Isn't Ohio the best state for Obama to attack McCain on wanting to appoint a commission to study the economy?

"McCain wants to appoint a commission, while I will attack the economic woes facing America immediately upon assuming the Presidency. The American worker, the American retiree, the American economy can't wait for a commission to spend months deliberating. Appointing blue ribbon commissions that promise everything and deliver nothing is the tired old politics of Washington, and is not the change we need. Its more of the McSame."

Just a thought.

I am in the Dayton area which has been savaged by the economy. We are looking at the DHL closing and Miamisburg GM Truck plant. This should be very fertile ground for Obama. However, Obama had ceded far too much ground to McCain, especially during the period before his convention. The ads have all been extremely negative with far less coming from Obama. That may be changing now, however, most residents just parrot the Republican talking points - higher taxes in particular. They also just think Obama is weak. Look, this is more than just undecided, secret racists (although there are many). This place was swinging towards Obama. Yes, it was a stretch for many, but a stretch that they seemed ready to make because of the economy. They want a strong leader, Obama ceded this issue.

"From ABC News:

"Republican ticket mates John McCain and Sarah Palin Monday blasted corporate executives who leave their company with a "golden parachute" and pledged to "stop multimillion dollar payouts" to CEOs, seeming to forget their own top economic adviser Carly Fiorina walked away with $45 million, including a $21.4 million severance package when she was dismissed by Hewlett Packard in 2005."

Must be sexism: I was never paid so much as a penny the several times I was fired from jobs. Or is it that I didn't know I should both accuse others of being elitist, and feel entitled?

I'm sure, though, she'll donate the most of that to charity -- which, of course, begins at home.

I lived most of my life in Ohio. Yes, there are a a lot of closeted racists and "drill baby drill" chanting idiots. But this is true of any state. These people are lost causes and no time should be wasted wringing hands over them. The few remaining undecideds are not lost causes. Obama simply has not been effective in convincing them that he is their man and that McCain is Bush's man. My mom in Ohio was laid off her blue collar job a few years ago. Her husband was laid off this year. They could care less that McCain has a bunch of lobbyists running his campaign. They're probably not sure what a lobbyist does. Obama needs to focus on the economy!

Indeed, anything could happen,,,,,,,,,, like some serious investigation of Todd (Bluto from the Popeye strip)Palin always being within groping distance of poor little Sarah when she appears or is speaking. He has a bad history of that back home on the tundra, and the continuation of that on the campaign trail looks downright sicko.

McCain will probably well us we're getting a twofur,,,,,, two for the price of one. Sicko.

I wonder if it's time for Obama's surrogates to confront this 'hidden racism' head-on. Of course, it would have to be handled carefully, but I think it's time to confront people with that well-hidden secret that it's not okay to vote for a black man for President. Maybe it's time for Obama to deal with it too..just before the election..to call people out about this.

I think we are all forgetting state polls take longerto come around after a convention bounce than do national polls. Look I think Ohio is a tough get, however, given the constant undrestimation even by PPP of AA % for Mccain (most have it between 8 -12%) that is at least a point maybe two right there. Additionally no one including the best pollsters know what kind of turn out there will be but just from experience if it is bigger than expected that is always going to favor Obama. Does that mean one point, none or 4 or 5? Also the economy just became even more of a factor than it was when these polls where taken so what do the internals say when broken down on the economy? If we see these same polls mere days before Nov 4 then color me worried until then it is called a swing state for a reason.

yawning!!!! i am grateful for the 50 state strategy, but in life you win some and you lose some...OH, WV, KY are gonna tough it out with McCain no matter what!!! Obama just doesn't look like the other Presidents....so what if his policies are sound? So what his running mate looks just like them? So what his whole team is diverse, but more white men running around? So freaking what? People let's face it-for some, the thought of a black man or a woman for that matter is just too much to muster!!!!

If you think Hillary winning over the bigots implies automatic victory in November, you have no clue...these people had to choose b/c a black man and white woman..at the end, the white woman was less scary....but faced with a white woman and white man, do you really think Hill would have won on the bread and butter issues alone? Get real!!!! Appac is what it is-RACIST/SEXIST/BIGOTED!!!!

Some of these comments are disturbing because they seem to be already giving up on Ohio. Ohio is hard to grasp because it is really three regions inside one state, but it is winnable. The battle, it seems to me, will be won or lost in the suburbs and in the middle, midwestern part of the state.

Don't forget that John Kerry came very close to winning Ohio in 2004. He wasn't exactly the type of guy who would fit in well in southeast Ohio (I lived there during the 2000 campaign), and he was going up against a GOP machine in almost complete control of the state.

This time around, Obama has the advantage of having a democratic secretary of state AND a democratic governor, Ted Strickland, who is from southeast Ohio and represented it in congress. Add to that McCain's admitted incompetence on the economy and at this point I'd give Obama at least a 50/50 shot of winning the state.

It'll be close, but we can make it happen!