Part of me feels like McCain isn't really even trying anymore. Like he wanted to be president, then realized he didn't have the energy, and now is just going through the motions, pretending to care, but really just trying to sink his own campaign.

I can't think of a better explanation for Sarah Palin, minus him just being a complete idiot.

Well...now I'm torn...

Yes, Obama breaks 50%. This has been the supposed "magical" threshold that Obama had to meet in order to satisfy the pundits of Obama's chances. I'm wondering when the TV bobbleheads will start being critical of McCain's loss of support. I won't hold my breath.

Good news on the national polls. Now above 50 in 2 separate polls.

I'm anxious to see the next batch of state polling in battlegrounds. Is this national trend carrying through at the state level?

But . . . But . . . But . . . McInsane has yet to give his acceptance speech . . . Johnny-mop is bound to get a thirty-five point bump due to his golden throated delivery style alone.

It looks like Obama got more of a bounce from John McCain's vp pick than he did his own.

I like Obama's chances, and am generally optimistic, but referring to a change in polls from 49/46 to 51/45 as a "doubling" of his lead when the poll has a 2% margin of error seems like a bit of stretch. I wouldn't be surprised if the Palin pick hurt McCain more than it helped him, but isn't it also possible that the "actual" numbers are 50/45 and these two polls just had the usual amount of noise in them?

And, of course, we still have two months to go, so let's not get complacent.

Hey folks, go look at Intrade.

Palin is trade up 8.5 today on the questions "Will Palin be withdrawn as VP?"

trying not to laugh...

it is great that the press is actually covering the sarah palin gimmick with some circumspection. because on friday it did not look like there would be any. that said i am in the don't get complacent camp. the press is fickle and without integrity. and they have sold much bigger lies than sarah palin. so it aint over. they don't want it to be over yet. and so it won't be. so chuckle a little but get ready for the next round of swift boats.

Great! I'm sure these slew of poll are sobering news for the Obama campaign, but somehow, the MSM, i.e., CNN will find someway to criticize these polls numbers. One of the earlier comments alluded the MSM moving the goal-post.

I'm more and more convinced that McCain is sabotaging the republican party for its own good, making the ultimate pander to the fundamentalist (let's stop pretending that those people are "conservative") base in an effort to loosen its grip on the party that keeps independents from choosing the R lever every November. This theory allows me to stop thinking of him as a truly tragic sellout. (It's been hard for me to reconcile his campaign with my lingering belief that he didn't sincerely take a great deal of pride in his integrity. (I had really wanted him to accept Kerry's VP nod.)

That, or he's lost his mind and he doesn't realize that you try to drive the wedge between your opponent's supporters.

Let's hear it for Occam's Razor (dispense with superfluities) and Hobson's Choice!
A Phalin strategy, no choice at all.
Putin and Palin, soulmates, close namewise and not all that far apart geographically. And he completes her.

It is great to see Obama finally above the 50% mark. However, I fear that all that this means is that the 527 smear machines will get into high gear sooner than they wanted to. Looks like it could turn into another gays, guns, and abortion election. But I think Obama is above that and the Palin selection will show what horrible judgement McSame has.

From:

Head of State

http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/intrusive-personal-questions-from-palin.html

Monday, September 01, 2008

"Intrusive Personal Questions" from the Palin Vetting Questionnaire

"Mr. McCain’s advisers said repeatedly on Monday that Ms. Palin was 'thoroughly vetted'"- The New York Times

Palin "responded to a 70-question form that included 'intrusive personal questions' a senior campaign aide said today."- The Washington Post

"Intrusive Personal Questions" from the Palin Vetting Questionnaire:

1) Did we forget anything?

2) Secession from your own country is

a) Patriotic

b) A qualification to be the potential leader of that country

c) Maverick-y!

d) None of the above

3) John McCain has said that he has followed your record for "many, many years." Divide those "many" years by the number of years of your actual record. The result is

a) Three days

b) Two years as mayor of a town of 9000, and 20 months at the helm of the vaunted Alaska National Guard

c) 0: experience, as we know, is not relevant to one's record

d) Czechoslovakia

4) Moose Burger : Abstinence as Moose Hunting :

a) Brother-in-law

b) 50 state flag

c) Bridge to Nowhere (after it was made impossible)

d) All of the above

5) Did we forget anything?

6) Three Vice Presidential candidates are moving from three equidistant fixed points towards a podium. One, in his slightly glazed stare and awkwardly quasi-combative speech bears a faint resemblance to Dan Quayle; the next can only assist the ticket as we near closer to Rapture; the third seems to have stumbled out of one of Christopher Buckley's sharper efforts. Which one arrives at the podium first?

7) "Nothing that has come out did not come out in the vet." This sentence actually means:

a) Everything has come out and everything has been vetted

b) Everything that was vetted has come out

c) Everything that has come out was vetted

d) The vet came out and vetted the vets vetter than anything has ever been vetted. Really.

8) You are a right-wing, red-state conservative. During the Clinton Administration, you believed that President Clinton's behavior with Monica Lewinsky disqualified him from the Presidency on moral grounds; you fervently raised the terms "Lincoln Bedroom" and "Johnny Chung" to invoke notions of utter corruption, and regarded the "Travelgate" firings as an abuse of power. In the face of the recent revelations regarding Palin's directorship of Ted Stevens' 527, support of the Bridge to Nowhere, "Troopergate" imbroglio, and illegitimate pregnancy of her 16 year old daughter, you:

a) Blame George Soros

b) Talk about Bill Clinton instead of Palin

c) Hold your hands over your ears and loudly shout "La la la"

d) Try to change the subject

9) "Foreign policy experience" includes:

a) Being near another large nation

b) Seceding from your own country and then taking up residence in the new nation

c) Being close to "Nowhere" in your support for the Bridge to Nowhere, which is different than being "Somewhere"

d) Blame George Soros

10) If you were seeking to choose as your running mate someone who would please Evangelical Conservatives with very traditional values, who would be without taint of corruption or misuse of government power, and someone who, in line with your campaign's own slogan, would put "Country First", after thorough vetting and "intrusive personal questions", you would choose someone who:

a) Supported the Bridge to Nowhere

b) Supported the secession of Alaska from the U.S. (Slogan: "Alaska First!")

c) Was the subject of a state ethics investigation due to allegations that she had tried to have her brother-in-law fired and that she fired the state public safety commissioner due to his unwillingness to fire the brother-in-law

d) Would suffer from allegations that her 16 year old child had become pregnant illegitimately, despite her fervent support for abstinence only sex education

e) None of the above



Cite:

Head of State:

http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/09/intrusive-personal-questions-from-palin.html

Just wait till TRAITOR JOE gives his speech tonight. That will move the needle. I'm crossing party lines, how historic of Me.

I wasn't around for Dole in 1996, but I asked people about it -- and when it became clear that Dole was just there to make up the numbers.

McCain's apparent ceiling across most polls seems pretty telling.

Let's hear it for Occam's Razor (dispense with superfluities) and Hobson's Choice!

Don't want to be one of those guys, but the misuse of the phrase Hobson's Choice is a pet peeve. I'm not sure what the poster above meant, but most* people use the phrase to mean that a choice offered is bad (either because you're damned if you do, damned if you don't or because it's an option between two bad choices--lesser evil.../devil you know...). The expression actually means that an apparent choice is actually no choice at all. Thus, the chooser really doesn't have an option (either literally (think a rigged Monty Hall game) or, metaphorically, because one is truly unacceptable, not merely more repugnant). I don't mention this as a gotcha. Actually, I wanted to pose the question below:

*Actually, I have never seen it used correctly. Has anyone else?

It's really hard to believe that John McCain selected an attractive women who is young enough to be his daughter, AGAIN.

New Gallup ##s:

Obama: 50

McCain: 42

The Palin Bounce is looking better and better every day.

The problem with JMAC is time has passed him by. In 2000, he was able to make to decisions he needed to make and look like a leader. But today you have to look at the whole man. He went negative on Romney to get close. People who didn't want to vote for JMAC voted for Huckabee instead. It didn't matter if he had 30 or 40% of the vote...the goal was to divide Romney's vote. With a winner take all system, all he needed was to win by just one vote. Now, he's in the general election and feels he can beat either HRC or OB. The problem is, he has always been behind in the polling. So let's do some polls and see what the people want to hear. Now this is where a pattern starts.

1. People want relief at the pump, I can't do anything with the state tax (which by the way makes up a large portion of the tax) but I can suggest we suspend the fed tax for the summer. Now did he think it through...apparently not when OB pointed out it would save the average family $28 during those 3 months. GIMMICK #1

2. Polls say like the idea of drilling. Some good...go for it. Well then he had this stupid slogan "Drill here drill now." Besides looking silly saying that line in the middle of an auto plant...he should have picked a better back drop. Next, he was force to say...well no oil will get to market until 10 yrs from now. Instead of defending his position he hands out tire gauges and says this is OB's energy plan. AND …Still had to admit OB was right on the tire inflation thing. (GIMMICK #2)

3. Probably the most important to date. His VP choice. We now know he wanted either Joe L. or Tom R. But when he went to his fundraiser...they bucked. It was so bad that Rove had to call Joe L. and ask him to remove his name from consideration. Only when there was a threat to split the convention did HE buck. But, OB start having a good week with the Dems and he picked Biden...looking at the polls he made the same decision he made with Romney...you can have your voters but I want the ones that don't like you. Now what woman can I put on the ticket that I have alienated in the Senate, none. Gov...none except one...Gov Palin. Hey she's prolife, life member of the NRA, and has a great story. She wasn't vetted seriously, because his staff was focus on the other SERIOUS candidates. Let's just get the basics and if she's okay let’s move forward. Now all of the crap is coming out about her and backers are saying "What the heck were you thinking John?" (GIMMICK #3)

But as we all know, he doesn't like to be told what to do...but he's in a jam. In a jam I say because as more and more stuff comes out...the bigger OB's lead is going to get. Sending a team to AK is too late now because the genie is out of the bottle. He has to ride this horse and hope not to get bucked. Everyone is waiting for her speech...that won't do much because she knows how to read a teleprompter (SP?). No the minefield of the Sunday Morning Talk Show is what's going to turn this drip into a river. And the debate, less than a month away, will turn this river into a flood.

If something else comes out….he’s done.

I agree with Mark Crispin Miller that a 10% spread is necessary to battle the shenanigans that GOP operatives will attempt to employ via faulty and vulnerable voting systems as well as classic voter suppression techniques.

So one more possibility is that Palin may help provide cover (like the 'Bradley Effect' and others) for analysts who try to posthumously explain away an unnatural shift from polling to the official results. Just trying to stay a step ahead - I imagine there are some hidden benefits to this selection that aren't immediately apparent.

There's probably some kind of Bradley effect going on, except not along the lines of race. Studies have shown that despite voters saying they value decades of experience, they just can't bring themselves to pull the lever for senile geezers.

McCain will bounce back to a statistical dead heat with a slight Obama lead. It will come down to the debates. If Obama performs as well as he did in most of the primary debates, he will be able to 'run down the clock' and win by a slim popular and electoral vote majority.

That's not all. Hurricane Hanna will be making a 'landfall' appearance then, too.

I love it ... McCainico!

Obama's gains will ring more loudly with me after the RNC is over.

Maybe McCain really *is* a maverick, and he's bucking the Republican Party that screwed him over so badly in 2000 by playing to lose, and taking down as many of them as he can.

Okay, maybe I don't really believe he'd do that consciously. But unconsciously?

Peace,
Paul

According to the AP, Obama got a smaller than ususal convention bounce and it is already shrinking. Check it out.

According to the AP, Obama got a smaller than ususal convention bounce and it is already shrinking. Check it out.

But wait...McWar has not giving his speech yet, so these polls don't matter...

michelle, pass the bong please!

Did you see the video of him introducing her to the crowd? He's playing with his wedding ring while staring at her ass.
Mr Subliminal.

pass the bong, share the wealth

Methuselah and the Milf are going down in flames. Who could ask for a more entertaining political season?

I believe it was a post on TPM that impressed me with a street-wise insight yesterday- the Palin pick is a gut level turn off for women because she is exactly the kind of women most women resent- the sexy ladder climber who seems to advance beyond her talents because of the way her sex appeal opens doors for her. This is a big blind spot for male pundits who simply don't have the biological make up to feel that resentment, but it's real and I think it may well be the subtext of the polling trends right now. It's an aspect of human nature as old as humanity itself, and no one in McCain's inner circle (presumably all male) saw it.

He's just hoping to get laid..........

don't lose sight of the fact that the Repubs own the companies that make the voting machines.

I can't Believe I'm going to stick up for McCaina and Politool!

McCain can't be blamed for losing one of his planes a soviet A30 missle had something to do with it. Rolling thunder tried to steer the old A-4s away but the target was too important....

Politool was right! Obama got his bounce --- and now McCain is getting a -8 bounce from his campaign!

Did you notice they took of Rudi and replaced him with Fred Thompson and Joe Liberman so the GOP won't look so old and whiney!

snark/off

Ridge was the one person on McCain's shortlist that would have been a net positive for his campaign, provided that the base was significantly motivated to show up in November as they did in '04.

McCain's "choice" of Palin further demonstrates just how deep the fundies' hold is on the GOP, and is yet another sign that if they continue down this path, they are heading for ruin.

Sydney Blumenthal has a post up on HuffPo saying that the Bushies (including Rove) were pushing heavily for Mitt Romney. McCain balked and picked Palin, in part as a way of thumbing their noses at him.

While you have to admire McCain's spunk, it was a self-destructive act that shows a rather scary lack of discipline.