Still no 50% in the tracking polls. I believe Obama went as high as 51%.

So was this not expected?

Whatever the polls show I agree completely with Josh, it is long past time for Obama to start making some news and stop reacting to it.

I guess this is the difference between the (post Popular Front) left and the right: when things start going wrong for the right, they double down on their faith that they can push harder and win. When the smallest blip occurs for the left's plans for a giant landslide, everybody's already packing everything in and rolling up the banners. HAVE SOME FAITH PEOPLE! Do you want to WIN or not?! Double-down already!

I agree that it is time for Obama to make some news. I am tired of headlines that start "Obama Responds To Palin Attacks."

As to the polls. This is the McCain bounce at its crest. Things will settle down. Don't panic just yet.

Eric,

Interesting analysis, unfortunately, the MSM won't these meaningless polls the way you do. The MSM will take these polls and skew them to create the perception that the race is actually close.

How about that 1-pt lead in Michigan?

That's positive.

When is Obama going to get backing to doing what he does best.... Talking about himself.. That's what got him this far.

Forget Palin, forget McCain, forget Bush. Focus on OBAMA, OBAMA, OBAMA.

Sadly it's seems like the The One and allusions of a Messiah complex got to him and has him scared to talk about himself anymore.

Anyway, Obama sucks at attacking. And finding surragates to fight his battles has been ineffective as evidenced by the recent polling.

This is bad news, but then again, I'm beginning to really like the idea of moving to Australia so maybe it's actually good news. Good luck with that whole "new-clear holocaust" thing northern hemispherites.

Screw the polls. Remember how accurate the "exit" polls were in 2004? The results were nearly the complete obverse of most predictions.
So, if Rove doesn't still have the keys to the Diebold operation, Obama should take the office in January.

It's really mostly the RNC bounce, but I hope people woke up a bit now. "We are 30 points down" was the basis for the success during the Primaries and people seem to have forgotten this mindset quite a bit, making a win sound like a sure thing (remember 2004?). Work as if Obama was 30 % behind McCain and this thing will be easily won. Work as if Obama wins this for sure and we are in for President Palin.

Guys, all we can do is our best. Obama is counting on the ground game to help win this and that is us.

As Joe Biden says "If the bully knocks you down, you get back up and bloody his nose so you can hold your head up the next time you walk down the street."

Did anybody think the Republicans were going to roll over and play dead this year so we could win without a fight? Nope. Do the Republicans think that we will roll over? Maybe. But if they do, they are ever so wrong. We will fight and we will win.

national tracking polls are meaningless.

do you have any state polls? those would probably be more relevant.

So it's a toss up in the polls. Obama needs to match the "audacity" of dopes. Why not take the "straight talk" mantle from McGrumpy since he took "change" from Obama.

Here's the straight talk you've been missin':

(List them ALL - let them scroll by lioke the credits in a bad "maverick" western)

Then: looks like "the straight talk express" got de-railed.

Make it lighthearted. "Just a joke" guys. Just kidding. Lighten up.

Polls be damned! Chuck Todd's new Microsoft Surface toy trumps them all!

Face it yall, Its over; we have lost but I will not vote for Hillary in 2012.

Since eliminating polling - except done privately by candidates who would be fined if their numbers got out - could not reasonably be challenged even by Constitution-thumpers, I suggest they be outlawed.

Not only are we not privy to the questions, to who comprised the group sampled, to the biases of the pollsters (everyone has biases), poll results often launch what is known in advertising country as the band-wagon effect. (I think it's that effect that we're witnessing in the present Palin-mania that's occurring.)

If they were merely a media gimmick, which they are, OK, but because their numbers can move people to vote a certain way, based on nothing but the very human need to jump on the band-wagon, they should be outlawed.

You know lalo, for some strange reason there was time when I was about half inch away from actually liking you.

Thanks for exploding that delusion.

I think this race will be even more difficult to predict than usual and polls will be even less useful than they usually are. The Bush/Kerry and Bush/Gore elections are our most recent experiences, but Obama and McCain are some of the most unconventional candidates in history and therefore appeal to voters in different ways than previous candidates did.

For example, Obama may run ahead of his national numbers in Virginia and Colorado: he attracts younger voters and professionals; combined with the large African American vote in Virginia and the sizable Hispanic vote in Colorado, he could win these states that John Kerry had very little chance of winning. On the other hand, Obama may run behind his national polling numbers places like Pennsylvania or Michigan, which Al Gore and John Kerry won.

McCain's support is now even harder to gauge. He used to have some appeal to voters like myself, an independent-minded voter in my early 30s who doesn't fall in line with either party's ideological foundations. Now, with McCain's cave-in on a whole host of right-wing ideological positions that he once strongly opposed and a cynical VP pick, there's no way I would even consider voting for him. On the other hand, he seems to have revved up the GOP base. He has so far done this fairly artfully, without connecting himself too much to GWB. Some people may still vote for the formerly independent-minded John McCain while others will vote for the new and improved ideologically pure John McPalin. A combination of these votes could win, but if independents see the cave-in, cynical, lack-of-integrity, fallen John McCain, he's a goner.

Add to this instability the following wild cards:

--The supposed but largely unproven Bradley affect (which, if it operates at all, probably operates differently in different states and regions)
--The possibility of gaffes by Palin or Biden
--Turnout. Obama is trying to do on a larger scale what he did in Iowa. The infrastructure is in place, new voters are being registered. Now, how many of them will vote? Will the GOP right wing turn out to support a VP pick even though they have long despised the GOP candidate for POTUS?
--Possible voting irregularities.
--And of course, a volatile environment for the economy and foreign affairs.

If the election is close, I just don't see how it can be predicted. So, the important thing to do is do some actual work to turn out voters, raise funds, etc. That may make the difference.

That's it. I am not giving another penny to the Obama campaign until he starts to spend some money to destroy the Repuglican thugs. What the hell is wrong with our party? Just sitting there pretty while the Repuglican thugs over and over again paint our candidates with lies.

It is time to ATTACK and destroy grandpa's circus act. I will start giving to the Obama campaign when the party finds its backbone. This is pathetic. People who do not pay attention are going to think that Democrats are week of defence when they don;t see democrats defending themselves!

Quick! Let's attack Eric for only focusing on bad poll results!

Wait...

There has been a lot of talk about McCain tapping into the so-called "Reagan Democrats." The reason that Reagan appealed to these folks is that he reached out to them in a way that conveyed that he understood their struggles. McCain has not made a similar "outreach" and if anything, he has telegraphed that he is out of touch with their needs. Furthermore, he has denigrated the notion of "Hope" and by doing so, he has condescended to the very voters that he needs to win in November. McCain is no Ronald Reagan.