Second Poll Puts Obama Up -- In North Carolina!
A second poll is now saying that Barack Obama is ahead in North Carolina, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter ran as the South's favorite son in 1976.
The new numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 47%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error. This comes on top of a Rasmussen poll from last week, which had Obama up 49%-47%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.
Obama surge in some of these red states has been happening in large part due to economic anxiety. In the PPP poll, an astonishing 64% of North Carolinians rated the economy as their top issue, and these voters who list the economy as the most important give Obama a 55%-38% advantage.
What makes these numbers even more surprising is that North Carolina is a state with a big military presence. And yet only 10% of respondents said the Iraq War is the biggest issue.
How much more bad news before McCain loses it?
September 29, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Losing it in 3... 2... 1...
It's hardly 'bad news'... for America anyway. :)
http://thepajamapundit.com/
September 29, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
New Ras. polls:
Obama ahead in Virginia, PA, and Colorado. Florida is TIED and Ohio McCain is one point ahead.
Let the McCain meltdown begin! I only hope it is as delicious as Hillary's.
September 29, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
That VA poll also puts Obama's support at 50%. Breaking 50% is always a huge positive.
September 29, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I always said that, if Obama could win either OH or FL, you could put the fork in McCain.
Well, if he wins NC, suddenly McCain's got to replace a LOT of EVs, and God only knows where he'll get them.
The one thing I'm stone-cold certain of is that McCain will never (as in never, never ever) win PA. Having been on the ground here, I believe McCain will get no closer than 53-47, especially with Rendell's GOTV out there for Obama.
September 29, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, let's say Obama loses OH, FL, IN and NV, but ends up winning CO, NM, VA and NC? Obama still wins with 301 EVs. Technically, at that point, Obama could LOSE VA and NC and squeak by with a win of 273 EVs. Doesn't look good for McCain. At all.
September 29, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I always assumed McCain would carry NC. Can't imagine the Wachovia crash will help him there - and today's numbers don't include any reaction to that little development.
I don't know of a GOoPer electoral map that has McCain winning without either OH or FL, which is why I held that position. Take NC off the table, and it's all over without either of those two states, like you said.
September 29, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Precisely. McCain is in dire need of turning a huge blue state red. And that just looks impossible for him at this point. The position he's in is this: Obama needs to hold on to or extend his lead in a few crucial states. McCain needs to gain a lead in numerous states, period. McCain's entire electoral outlook right now is one of complete defense.
September 29, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sure am happy to hear that. As a follow-up, McCain also is not going to win in Michigan, where I grew up. Because
1. Kwame Kilpatrick resigned. And he did it the day after Obama said it was time.
2. If putting a hunter who plays hockey on your ticket doesn't put you over the top, nothing ever will.
3. He lied about buying American, when he owns a Volkswagen, a Lexus, and a Honda. And a Toyota, but that may be his daughter's car. Not everyone in Michigan is gung-ho about buying American (my first car was a Honda), but it's NOT SOMETHING YOU LIE ABOUT.
John McCain can expect the Wolverines to rip his bones clean this November.
September 30, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
It modestly understates his black support. Even assuming it accurately models black turnout as a proportion of the whole, there's another point or so of difference lost in the inaccuracy of 91% for Obama among black voters in NC. The last internal I saw (Ras) was 98-0-2 undecided, I think.
September 29, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
*happyfuckingsigh*
September 29, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wonderful news. I also see that the same poll shows Dole going down to a flaming, crashing, burning disaster of a defeat. I cannot wait!
September 29, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Intrade:
Obama - 62.1
McShame - 38
I guess that's why the mcCrapShoot campaign trying to spin "gold" from straw as fast as they can. But the more they spin, the lower these numbers are going.
We need an Intrade for how low mcShame can go!
September 29, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. If you look, Obama keeps rising and McCain keeps falling.
It hasn't even been an hour since your post and McCain is down to 37.4 and Obama is up to 62.5.
Heh.
September 29, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
And the Intrade for Electoral Votes now has Obama at 338 to 200 for mcShame.
Down the drain
With mcShame
September 29, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
After Gore lost Tennessee, his home state, in 2000, there was some commentary that said that by the time he realized it was in trouble, he had essentially lost the state. To me that says that he had understandably taken the state for granted and by the time he realized it was no longer a given, he didn't have enough time to play catch up.
I wonder if that's the case with Indiana and North Carolina, and perhaps Georgia if things start to turn around in that state, this year. (I'm leaving Virginia off of that list because, from the outset, both sides seemed to think it would be competitive.) We've seen steps in recent weeks taken by the Republicans to shore up support in those states, but how serious were their efforts? They seem to have a limited presence in North Carolina, at least compared to Obama, and pretty much no presence in Indiana. The election is in less than forty days. Assuming these polls aren't flukes, at what point do they assume they need to plow a lot of money into the states at the last minute? At what point do they think the states are already lost?
September 29, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, it took a while for the Republicans to believe that Virginia would really be competitive, though it happened earlier than IN and NC. Until just before the conventions, they seemed to be assuming that having Virginia Republicans campaigning for McCain would be enough (McCain didn't visit VA until September 10), and were running their campaign out of VA GOP offices in most places.
September 30, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
This seems fairly reasonable:
http://rossdouthat.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/three_scenarios.php
September 29, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
{{{{{SWOON}}}}}
that was way more than nice.
September 29, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll swoon with you!
September 29, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Loved this part:
September 29, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
One word: nice.
September 29, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
another word: sweet.
September 29, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
;)
September 29, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you say "tanking financial sector" centered in North Carolina? Where do you think Wachovia is based. Hint, Charlotte.
September 29, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was going to say the very same thing. Charlotte is one of the major financial/banking cities in the country so it makes sense that NC would be up for grabs.
September 29, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
hmmm...is it safe to say, Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia is going blue in the fall? Not just because of the polls, but because Obama has registered an estimate of 330,000 new voters in all three states.
NORTH CAROLINA: According, to the pollster Obama is polling 36% among whites. The pollster said if Obama keeps that number he will win the state. Remember in the NC primary he won 38% of the white vote.
September 29, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seat-of-the-pants observation in the Denver area is that Obama yard signs and bumper stickers outnumber McCain by about 15 to 1.
We have an Obama banner hanging from our 2nd story deck railing and have had no less than 8 neighbors stop to compliment us on it and talk about the election (we live in a reliably GOP district, our congresscritter is Tom Tancredo). Also, people honk as they drive by if we're outside. I assume that's support as they are just a friendly toot-toot, not a blaring rebuke.
So, from where I stand, Colorado looks good for Obama.
September 29, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Got hope!
September 29, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just saw the Couric-Plain interview on CBS. McCain was with her. She did much better and sounded much more sure of herself. There is another piece of the interview that will be shown tomorrow. CBS sure is milking it.
September 29, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hm. I'd like to see it. Was McCain also getting interviewed? Or was he just there to make sure Couric went easy on Palin?
September 29, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
They played a snipet on CNN, and she said like two sentences and then McCain stepped in and started going on and on.
September 29, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
A little bit of both, I guess.
September 29, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did he butt in at all?
September 29, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, he didn't butt out!
September 30, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unless Couric did a second Palin interview, I have no idea what interview you could be talking about.
The Couric interview - Palin's first with a female journalist that she couldn't flirt her way out of tough questions in - was an abject disaster.
Have you EVER seen an SNL skit where the comedian/comedienne was able to quote the politician, and in so doing underline said politician's complete idiocy, with no embellishment necessary?
I've also read in numerous places that CBS held back the worst parts (for Palin, anyway) of that interview. That's what's coming out Wed/Thu.
September 29, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh....there was another interview.
McCain was there to avoid further disasters...which will only call attention to the previous ones, with everyone watching Palin drink that tall glass of Sedona-squeezed STFU in the bargain. :-)
September 29, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is more Couric interview than was shown originally. CBS is just releasing a bit more and there's yet more, apparently.
September 29, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wasn't aware that McCain was in the hizzouse for part of it. Not enough, if you ask Mark Salter. *evil laugh*
September 29, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me neither til just now.
you might know he'd come in and hold her hand.
But I guess that makes me a sexist for saying that.
September 29, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS
September 29, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
IS
September 29, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
September 29, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
GREAT
September 29, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
EXCELLENT
September 29, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
NEWS
September 29, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
FOR......
September 29, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
MCCAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
September 29, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
!!!McManyMansionsMENTUM™!!!
September 29, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe I filled half of the sentence.
I won't do that again.
September 29, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bogart.
September 29, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy crap!
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/tell-her-story.html
Marbury v. Madison, anyone?
Brown v. Board of Ed?
Plessy v. Ferguson?
God help us.
September 29, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gideon v. Wainwright?
Miranda v. Arizona?
September 29, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush v Gore?
September 29, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tyson v Holmes
September 29, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
DeHavilland v. Warner Brothers
(thought I'd toss in an obscure one)
September 29, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Come on, for Palin, Miranda was probably a terrorist.
September 29, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy crap, indeed!
Please god, deliver us from Palin!
September 29, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given her staunch antiabortion stance, and the fact that she's a governor, you would have thought she'd have at least a passing acquaintanceship with Casey v. Planned Parenthood.
But then, I'm just an elitist snob with totally warped values because I didn't grow up in a small town.
Plus, my avatar's a CAT.
Obviously, I must be French.
September 29, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Baby, god is, or the goddesses or the everlovin immortal voudoun priestesses of Nawlins are helping us.
IF they try to hold this country against all this by doing something really dumb like stealing it- god better help them.
Not this time. They finally broke the country completely.
We to have it back so we can back together. If we can.
Well damn, now I'm crying because the Repugs broke my country. They broke everything -
goddamn them
September 29, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Believe me, I feel your pain.
When I get like that, I roll up my sleeves and do some phonebanking. :-)
September 29, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a lot of buddies in the Bragg area...Obama is definitely in play! In fact they are going to canvass for the O this weekend.
September 29, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fantastic!!! Thanks for that!
September 29, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the nitwits would just stick to what they do best - opposition.
Repugs do fine there. They cannot be in charge of Congress. End of story.
I can't believe the Republican Party just broke this country completely twice in the space of a hundred years.
If they get voted back into power again in my lifetime, I'm going straight to the heroin habit I've been putting off starting all these years...
September 29, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey hey hey...try pakalolo.
September 29, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
You think I'd jump straight to smack without any gateway drugs?
dude.
If I knew where I could find some here in the High Chihuahuan Desert, I would. I make do with Mexican.
September 29, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a sucker for babies and I love Obama.
Take a looksee:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/75765855@N00/2899171384/
September 29, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too cute.
September 29, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's an adorable picture.
Love the look on the baby's face.
I wonder how many babies get handed to McCain? Seriously.
September 29, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
So cute.
I love Obama's face in this. Made me smile.
September 29, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok I found one with McShame.
http://tnaron.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/mccain-baby.jpg
What a difference in the baby's behavior.
September 29, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know, I know, the next McCaine plan is they are going to work on the Economic SURGE!
As the VP would say; a noun, a verb and SURGE!
September 29, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or is it serge?
September 29, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well there is a part of me that is thinking like this:
Ok, this is nothing like Clinton, this is nothing like anything I can think of so much as Hoover===>FDR.
If Obama can do it, and I think he can, he could get us out of here. FDR was pulling out of worse when admittedly WWII came along and helped.
But first and foremost, Obama will ease the war in Iraq and start keeping some of that money here. That's trillions once we're out of there.
September 29, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama should say, just like George Bush; John McCain said "Mission Accomplished" on Sunday and said OOps on Monday! When it comes to the economy.
I know, I know, I shouldn't be talking about the other party, but should say what we would do.
However, When on Monday we say one thing and 2 hours later we say another, I have to ask the question.
Where are you?
September 29, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, since it's been a tough day for Americans, I think I'll post my picture again:
http://punditkitchen.com/2008/09/05/political-pictures-barack-obama-chill-out-got-this/
September 29, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
And we've got his back.
September 29, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
YES!
September 29, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well timed. Here's a link to the raw image.
September 29, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oo, thanks.
September 29, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't wait till Rachel Maddow comes on and tears a new orafice into Crash!
September 29, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
2 more days and I can donate to the O again! Yippeee Kayoooo!
September 29, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
We knocked on 107,000 doors in NC this weekend.
September 29, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Way to go. AIRBORNE!
September 29, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great news.
Even if Obama doesn't win NC, this will force McCain to spend more time and money there. Since he's Mr. Military, it's especially bad for him.
September 29, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have believed for some time that NC was ripe to go for Obama. The Wachovia "sale" is not factored into this poll. There can be no doubt that this will cost NC thousands of jobs when the dust settles, expecially in the Charloote area. Given that McCain and his economic "team" has substatial responsibility, this amy be the closest McCain will be.
September 29, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that woman has terrible posture, too.
I'll just say it.
September 29, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Little topheavy.
September 29, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
The PPP is not a polling agency that anyone should bet on . . . It is in house polling.
AND while I dream of a fifty state win for Obama (with the possible exception of Kansas due to inbreeding), NEVER under estimate the Democratic Party's ability to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory or the malfeasence of the Republicants.
September 29, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Black persons 22%
Hispanic or Latino 7%
other minorities 3%
White persons not 68%
assuming that Obama gets 90-95% of the AA vote
60% of the combined minority vote (10%) he would need 35% of the white vote to win NC, assuming that there is no other contender but McCain.
in this poll he is getting 35% so if this becomes true in November Obama will win NC
September 29, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you are in the Military the economy is an issue...You are overworked and under paid. Most Civilians have an eight hour day...When you are in the service it is 24/7 regardless of your pay...That's why, other than getting out of WAR it is the ECONOMY stupid, for those military families.
September 30, 2008 3:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
absolutely. and Eric's claim shows that he knows very little about NC:
I'm not sure exactly what Eric is trying to say here. That it's surprising that Obama is winning NC because it's a "military state," or that it's surprising that "Iraq" isn't a higher priority b/c NC is a military state. Either way, I think he may be oversimplifying. The economy matters to "the military," too. And Obama is carrying a large portion of the military vote in NC. He ran up huge margins and got massive turnout in Cumberland County (Fort Bragg) and Onslowe County (Camp Lejeune) in the NC primaries; McCain support was ho-hum.
I have been following the internals of polling from NC over the course of the primary and general election. In North Carolina, Obama has consistently lead amongst voters who rank "Iraq" as their top issue. It's not a huge lead - usually w/in the 5% range. But NC voters clearly trust Obama more than they do McCain on "Iraq." McCain's margins come from "War on Terror" voters, "Taxes," and "Moral Issues." As the economy becomes increasingly important, those become less pressing concerns.
September 30, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
After the first question at the upcoming debate, Biden should ask for a life line...lol.
September 30, 2008 4:03 AM | Reply | Permalink