Report: Republicans Going Up On The Air In Indiana
Ben Smith reports that the Republican National Committee is going to sink some six-figure advertising cash into Indiana, a state where Obama's been making a heavy play.
With its own polling presumably confirming public polls showing Obama seriously competitive in Indiana, which hasn't gone Democratic since 1964, the Republicans are being stretched thinner than they would like. Meanwhile, elements of Obama's attempt to expand the map appear to be succeeding, at least by a preliminary measure: He's making the GOP spend money.
One other quick point: The McCain bounce after the convention and the Palin announcement appeared to manifest itself by shrinking the map: Obama pulled staff out of North Dakota, and pulled his ads in Georgia. But, in another measure of how quickly the McCain bounce evaporated amid the economic meltdown, to be replaced by an Obama surge, we're seeing very real signs that the map has expanded again. Obama's gaining in Virginia, has taken the lead in Colorado, and the Repubs are panicked about Indiana.
Not a bad place to be as we head into the debates.
Late Update: Our own poll tracker shows that Obama has actually taken the lead in Colorado. I've edited the above to reflect that.
Wow. Too cool. McSame having to dump huge sums defending Indiana, of all places!
September 26, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I smell panic.
On a side note...
I read the Ol' Miss folks are PO'ed at McCain.
It would be an instant classic if he was booed when he took the stage.
September 26, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is my dearest wish - McLame would be booed.
September 26, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't expect boos. Maybe golf-clapping.
September 26, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, golf-clapping. They aren't going to boo McCain. Even if he's annoyed them, they will still love him, and besides, Mississippians are some of the politest people I've ever met.
September 26, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and Missouri... I'm disappointed by reports that BigO is cutting back in MO. It's looking pretty competitive there, too.
Anybody know what's the real scoop in MO?
September 26, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
If MO is tied up then the race is already over since other swing states will most likely already be in Obama's favor.
September 26, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seems to me it was Monday or over the weekend that it was announced that Obama was pulling out of MO. I had a brief discussion here w/ someone from MO who was very disappointed. BUT, this was definitely before the "suspension" and the latest McBonkers crap.
Maybe Obama will throw some back there?
September 26, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
He did not "pull out." He cut his ad budget here. It is not like ND, however, where he shuttered all of his campaign offices. The staff are still on the ground here coordinating the volunteers and suchlike.
September 26, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cool. Thanks for the clarification. Give 'em hell... ;)
September 26, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I had something one might call "the real scoop," but in reality all I can tell you is that we are working our hearts out to turn this state blue. I have no idea yet (and neither does anyone else, really) whether our efforts will be enough on November 4. That said, I am cautiously optimistic. MO is the most bell-weathery bell-weather in this country, so I fully expect us to back the winner just like we have done so many times before.
September 26, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks BagPiper.
September 26, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
The race has tightened in CO? Umm what?
Dont you mean Obama has taken the lead there, Greg?
September 26, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
To echo Mr Oakly and Jeppy below, what do you mean "tightened"? Obama's is pulling away in Colorado.
September 26, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
If we can get NH to stay blue, then that's the election right there.
September 26, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
NOrth Carolina lookin' bluer everyday as well.
September 26, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is great. Every dollar McShame spends in Indiana is a dollar not spent in Colorado, Virginia, Florida and Ohio.
September 26, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tightened in CO? The last 6 polls there (since 9/17) all show Obama ahead by 3-10 points.
September 26, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
From Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight:
Smiles!
September 26, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want those racist bigots reTHUGS to spend as much money as possible.
September 26, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
omfg. I'm in an f5 refresh frenzy right now on multiple blogs.
I think I'm seriously way to addicted to politics. It's insane.
My heart needs a break come November 5th.
...I think my left arm feels numb.
September 26, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, you're seriously addicted to comments boards running conversations about politics.
That's different. ;)
September 26, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
A little pageantry:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/out-of-juneau.html
September 26, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's showing off her cellulite.
September 26, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that's the beauty pageant segment, I have some seriously mixed feelings about that.
If there were equal opportunities for footage of McCain, Biden, and Obama marching around a stage in a bathing suit, I'd say "Go for it!"
And I know that she participated willingly in the pageant, that she had to know the footage was out there, and for all I know, she's really proud of it. But there's something unfair about all of this. The only individual we see walking around in a bathing suit is the only woman in the race? Palin is a trainwreck of a candidate, but this just seems off.
September 26, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see the relevance of the video at all in this race. It just feeds into the whole "everyone attacking me is sexist" meme. Plenty of legitimate ways to criticize her without resorting to this.
September 26, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Indiana goes to Obama the only two questions on Nov 4 will be how soon is it over and how big is Obama's victory.
September 26, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
As someone in Indiana, I am more than pleased to see Indiana become a financial drain on the GOP. If we can get the 18-22 year olds to come out and vote, we stand a good chance.
September 26, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking as someone who volunteers at my county Democratic headquarters located in the reddest part of the first red state called for GWB in 2000 (Indiana), this is very heartening (as are the poll numbers).
One thing I've noticed is the absence of McCain/Palin signage anywhere around the county. It's actually a little spooky. People aren't even replacing their "W" stickers!
I feel good about this.
September 26, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Northwest Indiana (Gary, Munster, Merrillville) is going to be the key to Obama's victory in Indiana. If he can get that white suburban vote its a done deal.
September 26, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Peronsally speaking, I still think Obama will utlimately lose INdiana. He will make it close, but he'll probably lose it.
What concerns me is Obama should have tried harder in Arkansas. Looking at recent history and congressional delegation, Democrats should have a better chance in Arkansas than in Indiana.
First, Clinton won Arkansas both in 1992 and 1996. Gore and Kerry lost Arkansas, though I would say not by much. However, Clinton narrowly lost Indiana both in 1992 and 1996, while both Gore and Kerry lost Indiana way big.
Both Arkansas Senators are Democrats, while three out of four Representatives are Democrats. On the other hand, Indiana has a Democratic Senator, while the other is Republican, while five out of nine Representatives are Democratic.
I'm not saying Barack Obama should stop focusing on Indiana-I'm saying he should be focusing more on Arkansas. I sincerely hope Arkansas isn't the "one that got away", like Florida or New Hampshire in 2000, or Ohio in 2004.
September 26, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink