Polls: Obama Holds Huge Edge On Economy, Crisis
More polls are showing just how dramatic Obama's advantage over McCain is on the economy -- and how big his edge is on the economic meltdown in particular.
* In the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll released late yesterday, registered voters see Obama as the one who would do a better job of strengthening the national economy by a 46%-32% margin. What's more, Obama leads McCain by double digits on the question of who woud be better at handling the financial crisis: 48%-35%.
That crisis number comes on top of yesterday's Pew poll finding that Obama is seen as the one who would a better job by a 47%-35% margin among U.S. adults. Pew also found that Obama leads McCain among independents by double digits on the crisis question, 44%-30%.
*In the ABC/Washington Post poll released today, registered voters see Obama as better at handling the economy by 14 points, 53%-39%. And they say he better understands people's economic problems by 24 points, 57%-33%.
What's more, the WaPo poll shows the economy and jobs rating as the single most important issue for 50% of registered voters, with terrorism and foreign policy only in the teens.
* All this comes on top of the Quinnipiac polls from yesterday showing Obama with an advantage on understanding the economy in three key swing states: 47%-41% in Colorado, 50%-38% in Michigan, and 47%-40% in Wisconsin. The two were tied 45%-45% in Minnesota. In all four of these states, majorities rate the economy as the most important issue, with Iraq and terrorism combined again in the high teens.
* The one bit of good news for McCain comes in the increasingly pivotal state of Virginia, where the new Mason-Dixon poll of Virginia shows him edging Obama on the economy by a 46%-45% margin.
McCain has repeatedly attacked Obama as failing to show leadership during the meltdown. He's tried to use the financial mess in order to transfer one of his key advantages -- the perception that he's more prepared to handle crises -- onto the economy, where Obama has long enjoyed an edge. It doesn't appear to be working.
I predict a melt-down by mcShame any moment!
September 24, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain lashing out at someone is bound to happen.
September 24, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Given the magnitude of this economic crisis, this really could be the deciding factor in this close contest.
September 24, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed.
September 24, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Given the magnitude of this crisis, I'm not sure the election is going to be close!
September 24, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let's hope this WaPo poll is a leading indicator and not a bizarre outlier. But it does seem there's serious momentum building toward a whole lotta anti-Republican resentment.
Pufferfish
September 24, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
It doesn't appear to be working
No, and the Wapo/ABC poll suggested that McCain's advantage on national security has eroded as well:
Maybe Obama's advantage on the economy is creating a bit of a halo effect. Or maybe Palin is, by contrast, making Obama look like a genius on foreign affairs. Who knows? Good news, either way.
September 24, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's hard for people to hold strong confidence for a candidate in one area and not to have that confidence bleed over into other areas. It becomes more of a broad view, "are they a strong leader." As Obama has not given reason to doubt his foreign policy, his stature on the economy helps people feel more comfortable with him dealing with foreign policy.
September 24, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
These numbers make me think that if Obama can really whip McCain in the foreign policy debate this Friday the deal might sealed.
McCain will have nothing left to run on but is supposed "maverickness".
September 24, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heh.
I love how the McCain campaign held a conference call to shout that this poll is an outlier and that they are really tied. I'm sorry but I find that really hard to believe and if they weren't in trouble why bash the media THIS week?
September 24, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
They really did that? They called a conference call just to dispute a poll?
Wow. They're soooo screwed. These people have the worst poker faces ever.
September 24, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, it's on The Page right now. Who holds a conference calls about polls if they don't have problems?
Obama's campaign has been consistent from the beginning that national polls don't matter to them even when they were ahead. It's amazing how panicked the McCain campaign is and it shows through their actions.
September 24, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Check the Page.
September 24, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
And to say that NYT and Huffington Post are the same when it comes to ideological bias.
September 24, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
September 24, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
They're going to have to toss in NPR, Newsweek, and Roll Call, as well, since all three of those outlets reported about Davis' sweet deal from Freddie and Fannie.
September 24, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know things aren't going well when McCain has his main pollster holding a call to try and dismiss the Washington Post/ABC poll as an outlier.
September 24, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
They can sense the "conventional wisdom" starting to lean towards "Obama is leading this thing" which can then dispirit the base, leading to lower enthusiasm, etc.
Which, if you look at the Wapo/ABC poll, has already started to happen. McCain supporters went from 46% being very enthusiastic to 34%. Over 60% of Obama's supporters are still very enthusiastic.
September 24, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
And once the tipping point occurs, which it seems to have done, then you have the people who want to be on a winning side.... just following the wave.
September 24, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting polls. When you consider the perception voters have of GOP and DEM strengths, its almost as if the average voter trusts the GOP more to get us into trouble, but they trust the DEMs more to get us out of trouble.
September 24, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thus: Republicans = Trouble. Dems = Hope!
September 24, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. I think its going that way. I get the sense that people are beginning to think along the lines of a "lets throw the bums out" response to all the chaos and anxiety. This was already a 'change' election. It'll be more so now
September 24, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
VA numbers by Mason-Dixon tells me Obama is going to win VA.
Rasmussen is more credible that the Dixon but they are both right of center and do show their bias in embarrassing fashion at times. Dixon has McCain up nationally by 3 when we all know that Obama is up, even Rasmussen just had a 2% uptick for Obama from yesterday.
September 24, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, when a gaffe by Biden is what brings the trolls out, I would say things are looking fairly good right now...
September 24, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Polls: Obama Holds Huge Edge On Economy, Crisis"
Which is why we've got to keep a sharp eye on Bush, Cheney, et al. They'd love nothing better than to start something that puts national security back in the forefront of people's thoughts. As far as I'm concerned, they already tried and failed to get a shooting scrape going with Russia in Georgia. Nothing is beneath them.
September 24, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great minds think alike! ;-)
September 24, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Given the way things are shaking out now, "nothing beneath them" as a divisor = zero!
September 24, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Except such a move will only show how incredibly stretched our military has become due to Iraq. The equipment and manpower just isn't there.
Of course, N Korea is acting up again.
September 24, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, their leader is ill. And likely they need something to "unite" their country. bush mad at them would do.
September 24, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
AAHHAHAHAHAH that's funny because me and another user just finished commenting on this and I refreshed the page and saw the link.
September 24, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only way I see this thing turning back towards McSame is if the conversation reverts to national security. And that has me worrying that maybe Shooter Cheney and The Gang have an October Surprise, in the form of an invasion or even a false flag terrorism incident, in the works. Lets hope not.
September 24, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Their Brand is getting so tied to LIAR though. The public may not be conned.
September 24, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're right, but we're talking about confidence men of the highest order. Or should I say, the lowest order.
September 24, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I know exactly what you mean. But they're off their game! However.... Let us pray....
September 24, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm on my knees, head bowed . . .
September 24, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I feel better already!
September 24, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly right, which is what happened in Georgia. Not only Americans, but the Georgians were skeptical. Rightly so. But as Doofus (that CAN'T be his picture!) agrees, it's possible we ain't seen nothin' yet. Terrorist attack, anyone? Even with lots o' dead people?
Where are my meds...? Quick!
September 24, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now I've done a little more reading...I think maybe our eyes should be on North Korea. Not on North Korea but on how BushCo handles the supposed restart of that reactor. If they start waving the warning flags, we know the game is on.
September 24, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm more interested in how mcShame reacts!
September 24, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain can react, do his Angry Old White Man routine, but BushCo can actually START something. They're the ones who make me nervous in the present. McCain only makes me nervous for the future.
September 24, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I intend to remain calm no matter what. We know Obama will be the Exemplar of Calm. And this time I think Calm will win the day.
September 24, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
HEY! Ya got something against wigs and leisure suits??!!
September 24, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yay! I love your headline, Greg!
September 24, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now that the RNC bounce is over can we say that those who a) predicted it and b) said "DON'T PANIC" were right?
Taking the long view of this election you could have predicted the RNC bounce back in January, before any of the candidates were determined. To illustrate the point, in mid-August fivethirtyeight.com published a forecast for what the polls would likely do from the day before the DNC through the RNC and then through to October 1. The forecast was based entirely on history, with out regard to the specifics of this campaign, and was made before either VP had been selected. Fivethirtyeight's forecast was uncannily accurate. The only inaccuracy was that the RNC bounce ended by last week, not Oct 1 as predicted. But that last part may be explained by the fact that so many voters will vote early this year, thus accelerating the campaign cycle.
Taking the same long view, barring catastrophe Obama should win this handily. Swing voters tend to vote with the economy, so they will swing towards Obama. There will be other influencing factors of course, but they tend to balance out. For example seniors, whose formative years occurred when Jim Crow was still the law of the South, are more susceptible to racist feelings and will tend to McCain. But they will be balanced by younger voters who think it would be a good thing for a black to finally be the President.
September 24, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
They held a conference call to dispute a poll? A poll?
Wow. I've never seen such panic.
September 24, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
In the last few weeks I decided to do a bit of research and listening to radio more than I usually do (which is never). So what was the research and who was I listening to?
I listened to Steve Harvey, Warren Ballentine and Tom Joyner some of the preeminent voices in black talk radio. Why? Simple I thought prior to this little case study that the AA vote is being underestimated in every state where it will make a huge difference, ya know those swing states.
After listening for just two weeks I am beaming. The hosts have huge, and I mean huge audiences. They are full on committed to voter turn vote, pushing Obama's message and vision and dismantling McPOS.
The enthusiasm and effort these hosts are having is below the radar but come Nov 4th it will show up big time. Think about it majority of polls are using 04 models for AA turnout. That was when the choice was well...Kerry.
I know pollsters cant really guess how much more AA turnout will be, however, given the efforts of these radio hosts and many more around the country (I also found out there is a huge push in the latino radio community also) I think it is a safe bet to say AA turnout is really going to "shock" the MSM.
These hosts are geting folks into rural areas where AA turnout has always been very low. Literally there is mini armies being sent to all corners to muster up voters where ever they can be found.
Will they win Obama states like Miss or Georgia? No, but in NC, Ohio, Fla, and VA it will have a major impact that might make tight states not so close or close states with a repub lean even tighter.
One example is VA. Just listening to all three hosts the largest amount of callers came from Va, NC and Florida. In VA the GOTV push for AAs is massive. Joyner, Harvey and Ballentine harp on this non stop and especially in states like VA.
If Obama tops 60% in NOVA he wins the state and the AA vote I believe will get him there with room to spare.
In conclusion the influence of these and gents and ladies like Bev Smith will at worst push AA vote totals up one or two points and that is being very conservative IMHO.
On off subject note these hosts are all class, for instance if a Mccain supporter calls up they dont belittle them or cut them off they make a genuine attempt to understand why they are supporting him then try with humor and honesty to make them see why that is such a bad option. Take notes Limdrugslut.
September 24, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well jessran, when Obama's primary campaign got to Texas, I saw what you are talking about. I saw people turn out to caucus for Obama no one ever imagined would turn out to vote. I've said this over and over - but they are using numbers from an election that has no bearing on this one.
I was a poll watcher in '04. In my precinct, around 500 people voted. On primary night, 1200 people lined up to caucus for Obama and about a third again were there for Hillary.
In Oak Cliff, which is predominantly AA, in one precinct, jessran, where in '04,, 58 people voted - total - 4000 voters turned out for Obama on primary night.
September 24, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Something that might be working in Obama's favor with this financial mess is the realization among reasonable people that we really DO want and need a smart, thoughtful person leading the charge in times like this.
Financial crises are complicated affairs. Enjoying a beer with the President at a backyard barbeque isn't going to cut it.
September 24, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just wait for the big game-changer. When Sarah Palin is ready for her close-up, she will wade through the media hordes with ease and confidence, smiting the heathens with her scintillating wit and confounding them with her powerful intellect ...
Or not.
September 24, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow Biden seems tired in this speech
September 24, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
So would you. Campaigning is REAL HARD WORK!
September 24, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oho! New NH poll and the dominoes begin to fall. Ladies and Gentleman (in Biden voice) "John" is in seriou kimche...
September 24, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/07/top-senate-recipients-of-fanni.html
September 24, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why was Obama silent on Hagel-McCain s190 which sought to stop the fraud?
September 24, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fogu 2 let me guess the best part of you rolled down the crack of yer mum's ass?
September 24, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink