For those who are interested, Nate Silver's got a great analysis of the tracking polls and the convention bump over at 538.com:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/crackin-trackin-poll.html

There's a great post analyzing and estimating each day's numbers at fivethirtyeight.com

Obama's ceiling is 50-51%. If McCain can't get to 47-48% then McCain is screwed as his ceiling has been 44%.

I don't think McCain is going to get to the 47-48% that he needs and as bad as the CBS news poll was, McCain could only get to 42%.

It looks like at best he will pull back to right where he was before the election. And it isn't just a convention bounce, but the Palin bounce as well. As the conventions fade, and the truth about becomes more real to the independents, the likelihood he'll remaining hovering in the 42 to 44% range.

The head of the Alaskan republican state senate and house both said, Palin is not qualified to be vice president. Andrew Sulivan and NEQ are reportedly looking into Todd Palin's former business partners divorce records regarding Sarah Palin's alleged affair. The walls are starting crumble around Palin.

Man, I am really nervous. %45 of people think Mccain/Palin is what America needs. What does that say about America? Bush is floating around at unthinkable approval ratings, but people somehow think McCain is different. McCain is old enough, he should know the phrase, "you can't teach an old dog new tricks"

The only change he is going to make is a pair of depends.

Eric, I hate to be rude, but you guys have shown over and over that you don't know how to read, and use a poll. You never dig into the crosstabs when they're available, and you often draw wild and offbase conclusions about what the results of a polls reflect. I'm saying this for your own good.

Stop. Obsessing. About. Polls.

Please. Especially these tracking polls, which are just ridiculous. They have their place, but almost never in the context that you give them. By all means, continue to bring us polls, especially any relevant state polls as they become available. But please, stop drawing conclusions for us. You're very bad at it.

One should note that a very good day for Obama dropped off of both polls today. I think someone calculated that Obama actually gained 2% from Wednesday to Thursday in Gallap, from +3% to +5%.

I'm not sure how reliable that math is, since I'm not sure how easy it is to infer individual day numbers.

McCain will be able to break even. Maybe.

Obama was able to pull out in front by 8 points at one time.

Only one candidate has the numbers on their side.

Erik: you missed the poll for Alaska:

The Headline should be Pittbull wins Alaska for McWar...

This might throw just a bit of a damper on the otherwise (marginally) rising fortunes of the McGramps/Barracuda ticket:

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5734511&page=1

The bounce was supposed to happen, but the unemployment numbers ans the return of Troopergate will put things back to normal.

But I want to leave a question in the open: Can McCain's awful speech affect his convention bounce?

McCain-Palin'08: A POW and a barracuda!

Unfortunately, some of that 45% are made up of people like my father. The man LOATHES Bush and regularly rails against the GOP for their theocratic leanings, budget largess, imprudent foreign policy (in his better days he was an old-fashioned realist ala Eisenhower), yet he voted for Bush twice and plans to vote for McCain. The only way he's able to do so is by COMPLETELY ignoring the news. He will literally walk out of the room when anything GOP-related is on the news so he doesn't have to hear it and can vote for them this fall. He's not your typical low-information voter either; he's a retired scientist with a PhD in chemistry from Stanford. The problem is that he's way too prideful to vote for anybody else because it would be truly admitting the GOP (and by extension, himself) was wrong. He won't even vote Libertarian to protest.

What's even more frustrating is that he openly admits our current economic policy (engineered by the GOP) is slowly bankrupting the country and will lead to extreme hardship for his grandchildren.

We're not really on speaking terms now because I told him he's personally responsible (since he agrees our policies are ruining the country) for destroying the lives of his grandchildren because he's too fucking prideful. I also told him "to take off his fucking flag pin, because, via his actions he's a traitor to his nation and doesn't deserve the honor of wearing it. Yeah, I'm a disrespectful son, but the stakes are too high to not speak frankly. It won't make a difference though.

Like I said; my subjective judgment is that there are A LOT of people like him out there.

McCain Beat Obama in Ratings

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080905/pl_bloomberg/ae1brfgubhjs_1

Republican presidential candidate John McCain attracted 38.9 million television viewers to his acceptance speech last night, Nielsen Media Research said.

The total exceeded the 38.4 million who watched Democratic nominee Barack Obama last month. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, McCain's vice presidential running mate, drew 37.2 million on Sept. 3 after three days of intense media coverage.

McCain Beat Obama in Ratings

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080905/pl_bloomberg/ae1brfgubhjs_1

Republican presidential candidate John McCain attracted 38.9 million television viewers to his acceptance speech last night, Nielsen Media Research said.

The total exceeded the 38.4 million who watched Democratic nominee Barack Obama last month. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, McCain's vice presidential running mate, drew 37.2 million on Sept. 3 after three days of intense media coverage.

If you include the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking poll which includes Palin's speech, which has Obama at 46 and McCain at 40(!), it doesn't look like much of a bounce to me.

If McCain can't crack 48%-50% by Monday we can put a fork in him.

McCain Beat Obama in Ratings

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080905/pl_bloomberg/ae1brfgubhjs_1

Republican presidential candidate John McCain attracted 38.9 million television viewers to his acceptance speech last night, Nielsen Media Research said.

The total exceeded the 38.4 million who watched Democratic nominee Barack Obama last month. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, McCain's vice presidential running mate, drew 37.2 million on Sept. 3 after three days of intense media coverage.

McCain Beat Obama in Ratings

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080905/pl_bloomberg/ae1brfgubhjs_1

Republican presidential candidate John McCain attracted 38.9 million television viewers to his acceptance speech last night, Nielsen Media Research said.

The total exceeded the 38.4 million who watched Democratic nominee Barack Obama last month. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, McCain's vice presidential running mate, drew 37.2 million on Sept. 3 after three days of intense media coverage.

Obama Beats McCain In New Diageo/Hotline Poll: Obama 46%, McCain 40%, undecided 10%

September 5, 2008

New York, NY – The Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll, conducted by FD, is a new daily
tracking poll that is being conducted from September 2, 2008 until Election Day, November 4,
2008. The poll is being conducted via telephone among a random, nationally representative
sample of registered voters, age 18 and older. FD
is interviewing no fewer than 300
registered voters nationwide each day up to Election Day. Results will be released daily,
Monday through Friday.

Today’s results are based on combined data from Sept 2 to Sept 4, 2008, with n=916
registered voters (margin of error +/- 3.2%), and a subsample of n=877 likely voters (margin
of error +/- 3.3%).

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/Tracker/Diageo%20Hotline%20Tracker%20release%20-%2009%2005%20final.pdf

Two words: Electoral College!!!!

Tracking polls are sort of a fun parlor game (does anyone even have a parlor anymore let alone play games in them?) but they really don't help us any. The big question is what has been the impact of the conventions on the swing states?

So what if McCain has sewn up the right wing conservative Republicans? This election will be determined by moderates and independents; people who believe in science, books, education, economic opportunity, and international leadership.

In which swing state did McCain help himself with his convention? Alaska - which has never been a swing state before. In which swing states did Obama help himself during the Dem convention? Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.

Let them try to hide Palin; it won't help. McCain's speech was a flub.

A dead heat. Within the margin of error.

Exactly as I predicted.

It's good that so many people got to see McCain's speech. It was vague and wandering and made him look weak.

It's good that so many people got to see McCain's speech. It was vague and wandering and made him look weak.

My father is a lifelong Republican in his 60s who thinks George W Bush has been a disaster -- especially the recklessness when it comes to war, spending, and broad issues of national decency (torture, habeas corpus, undiplomatic international arrogance.) He actually voted for Kerry in 2004. Yet he'll almost certainly vote for McCain in 2008.

One, because he truly believes McCain is different from Bush.

But another of the major reasons is that Barack Obama is just too exotic for him in some gut-level way. I think we underestimate how stuck in old assumptions and perceptions older people can be. For many who grew up in the 50s and early 60s, the idea that a black man named Barack Obama could be elected president, and could be trusted once he was, is still an odd one.

I played McCain's speech backwards and found that he was repeating the same statement over and over again, in different languages.
"Pull my finger", "Pull my finger", "Pull my finger".

START THE CLOCK!!!

CAN TPM PLEASE START A CLOCK OF THE DAYS THAT ARE GOING BY WITH SARAH PALIN NOT SITTING DOWN FOR A NATIONAL INTERVIEW WITH A SERIOUS REPORTER FROM A LEGITIMATE NEWS ORGANIZATION? It's a shame that she could potentially be a heartbeat away from the presidency and we've yet to hear her without a script.

McCain's ratings are a function of NFL on NBC - I'm sure a good number of those viewers, like me either dozed off or were off walking the bed before the thing ended.

McCain's ratings are a function of NFL on NBC - I'm sure a good number of those viewers, like me either dozed off or were off walking the bed before the thing ended.

Meanwhile, over at electoral-vote.com:

Today (2008-09-05):
Obama 301 McLame 224 Ties 13

Yesterday's numbers:
Obama 298 McLame 227 Ties 13

So Obama is up 3 EV's from yesterday.
Change since yesterday: ND moved from "weak R" to "weak D"

Obama also up 23 EV's since 2008-08-28
Those numbers were Obama 298 McLame 227 Ties 13
Change from 20080828 to 20080904: OH, with 20 EV's moved from "weak R" to "weak D".

The tie state in all cases is VA (13 EV's.)

It's about the Electoral College, as PeninsulaMatt notes upthread.

Although a resounding popular victory would be nice as well -- "mandate" and all.

The numbers at pollster.com, otoh, have remained largely static for a while (Obama 260 EV's).

Meanwhile, over at electoral-vote.com:

Today (2008-09-05):
Obama 301 McLame 224 Ties 13

Yesterday's numbers:
Obama 298 McLame 227 Ties 13

So Obama is up 3 EV's from yesterday.
Change since yesterday: ND moved from "weak R" to "weak D"

Obama also up 23 EV's since 2008-08-28
Those numbers were Obama 298 McLame 227 Ties 13
Change from 20080828 to 20080904: OH, with 20 EV's moved from "weak R" to "weak D".

The tie state in all cases is VA (13 EV's.)

It's about the Electoral College, as PeninsulaMatt notes upthread.

Although a resounding popular victory would be nice as well -- "mandate" and all.

The numbers at pollster.com, otoh, have remained largely static for a while (Obama 260 EV's).

It seems like Obama did not really move much. (In fact, today's Rasmussen has him higher than yesterday.) Arguably, those slight ticks for him are just MOE artifacts (down 1 point from his Rasmussen high and 2 from Gallup). McCain appears to have gotten a real bounce, but it seems to have occurred without him taking anyone from Obama (with the caveat that we won't know the full effect until Monday, yet the fact that he ticked up after dropping is heartening). I suspect that McCain only accomplished solidifying his base and fencesitters on the right who would have held their noses and voted for him regardless are now committing. It will be interesting to see if McCain can ever get past 45-46 in the national averages. I doubt it. My sense is that picking Palin has also made fencesitters on the left decide that there is no way they can support him. If they can't support Obama, but the current percentages hold, adjusting for their absence, Obama wins the popular vote with over 51%. Except in rare circumstance (2000), that means an electoral college victory as well. In addition, electoral college analyses are leaning heavily in his favor.

The "maverick" is looking more and more like a sidekick...merely going along with the powers that be...he says and does whatever he thinks his champions want to hear. Just like calling lobbyists 'birds of prey' which is a total contradiction to what his true ties with these unnecessary evils in Washinton are.

And I'm simply at a loss for words regarding Ms. Palin's popularity. We don't even know her. What planet are these people from that are going on and on about how wonderful she is...one woman said.."I love her. I love her kids. I even love her parents!" (who I wouldn't have been able to point out in a line up had it not been for a brief glimpse provided by the cameramen at the RNC...What is wrong with this country?