Polls Show Dead Heats In Key Swing States
The presidential race really could not be closer in the key swing states, according to a new round of Rasmussen polls, with ties in two states and near-ties in three others -- though on balance it's decent news for John McCain:
• In Colorado, McCain has a 48%-46% edge, within the ±4.5% margin of error. Last week, Obama was up 49%-46%, within the margin of error.
• In Florida, McCain is up 49%-44%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. Last week, it was a 48%-48% tie.
• In Ohio, McCain has a narrow 48%-45% lead, within the ±4.5% margin of error. Last week, McCain was ahead 51%-44%. This is the third poll today that gives McCain a lead in Ohio -- so we're inclined to think he's ahead.
• In Pennsylvania, it's a 47%-47% tie. Last week, Obama had a 47%-45% lead, within the margin of error.
• And in Virginia, it's a 48%-48% tie. Last week, Rasmussen had McCain up 49%-47%, within the margin of error.
Only one of these states, Pennsylvania, went for Kerry in 2004. So what we have here is the GOP playing some serious defense in four states they've previously won -- and the Dems having to work just as hard to hold on to a big prize of their own.
Eric,
Dead heat? C'mon...Consider the source, its the Ramussen/Fox Poll. Their polls is full of over sampling, errors and under sampling.
September 15, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah its very hard for me to believe any poll thats affiliated with fox news
McCain Camp, Tina Fey is SEXIST!!!
September 15, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen's polls aren't worth the paper they are written on.
September 16, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
Dead heat? C'mon...Consider the source, its the Ramussen/Fox Poll. Their polls are full of over sampling, errors and under sampling.
September 15, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I feel like someone could write a pretty simple program to pull poll results from various web sites and post them in a thread.
September 15, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen/Fox has Obama behind in both Colorado and Virginia, but the Public Policy Poll and SurveyUSA Poll has Obama ahead in both states. Rasmussen/Fox over samples republicans and under samples registered voters and new registered voters.
September 15, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Worth pointing out is that Rasmussen recently shifted its party weighting formula to favor Republicans more.
September 15, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
This round of Rasmussen polls are also one-day likely-voter polls taken on a weekend with a sample size of 500 (4.5 percent margin of error). I'm not saying this is good news, but I'd need to see another poll or two before worrying about Pennsylvania.
September 15, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep wasting money on Pennsylvania McCain! I smell a victory comin' your way, boy!
September 15, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just don't think there's much there in that round of polling for Obama analysis.
McCain's losing ground in Ohio and picking it up in Florida.
The rest is w/i the margin of error and noise.
September 15, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
With Obama only up by 5 points in NY (Siena Poll that had him up by 18 in June) and now tied in PA (Rasmussen) and in Minnesota (Star Tribune), Obama will have to spend a lot more on defense than he originallly thought he would have to.
He is eventually doomed in Colorado because of the referendum there to ban affirmative action, especially if his covered-up SAT and LSAT scores are revealed.
The only state with good news for Barack today is Virginia where he is tied in Rasmussen and up 4 in SurveyUSA.
September 15, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooooohhh whoa is me....
It is OVER!
Obama should bow out now. Just give up, it's not worth going forward any more.
September 15, 2008 8:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Today Rasmussen adjusted the party weighting to reduce the Democratic advantage from 7.6% to 5.1%. That might be correct in absolute terms, but it skews the trendlines in McCain's favor. For example, the national margin appeared to shrink by just one point today, from +3 McCain to +2 McCain, but the real shift in Obama's favor was considerably more than that.
September 15, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could anyone out there explain for me/us, in plain language, how to read or interpret the Electoral Vote Distribution graph on the 538 website? Mr. Silver offers no explanation within his extensive FAQs.
It would be great to know, for all of us who are not interplanetary rocket/space scientists.
GRACI!
September 15, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Silver runs 10,000 simulations per day. The horizontal axis is the # of electoral votes received by Obama, the vertical lines represent the number of simulations--the taller the line, the greater the # of simulations showing that number of electoral votes for Obama. Right now the tallest line is red, and at about 260, indicating that the likeliest result if the election was held today would be something around McCain 280-Obama 260.
September 15, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Poll of polls, folks. That's the only one to look at.
September 15, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not too optimistic at this point.
Mind you, as I have done on Election Days past, I will be manning the phones, canvassing, and authenticatiing results at polling sites. And I'll remember to vote.
But...
I've seen this movie before, and dear God, I am so sick of it. If McCain wins it will have been three straight general elections, three straight very strong Democratic candidates, and three losses.
Thing is, it all wouldn't be nearly as bad if we were losing to people like Sen. Dick Lugar, retiring Sen. John Warner, or Sen. Olympia Snowe. But we have lost two elections to Monkey Boy, and now appear poised to lose to a 72-year old whose policy positions are the stuff of lost sleep, with a fundamentalist dingbat ready to jump in should the two-time cancer survivor abruptly depart this Earth.
I hope to God that the coming election shows me to be a Chicken Little, not a Cassandra. This marks the first time I have desperately desired to be shown to be utterly, embarrassingly wrong in my life.
Robert
September 15, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
More good news on the liar meme. It seems the meme is even taking hold a little on Fox. You know about the Karl Rove thing, but I don't know if you've seen this one with Tucker Bounds. Its worth a look:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OviYjJWIYbY
One YouTube commenter actually had a clever take. Its like you ask maid to sweep a little dirt under the rug, but then show up with a 50-pound bag of manure. They can't do it.
So, lets hear it for the doom-and-gloom headlines! Despite the TPM vibe, I think the worm is turning.
September 15, 2008 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hard to see how we can lose Ohio AND Florida and still win. 50 lbs of horse sh*t? The Bushies have managed to sweep a stable's worth of it under the rug over the course of the last seven+ years. (They couldn't have done it without a compliant media and a group of Democratic senators and congressmen who generally pretend they haven't noticed the smell, but that is another matter.) Think McCain can't manage the same feat? He has the same Rovian crew to assist him.
No, nearly eight years of George W. Bush haven't transformed me into a cynical, pessimistic SOB, why?
Robert
September 15, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out Cusack. He nails it. Some great advice for the Obama campaign.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-cusack/the-final-distraction-mcc_b_126672.html
September 16, 2008 1:54 AM | Reply | Permalink