RCP shows McCain went down from a high of 2.7 to just 2 on their average poll.

NY Post this morning said Obama went down even in the NY State.

Something doesn't add up, unless today's polls show a slide for McCain.

I am guessing that the tightening in MN reflects the fact that the convention was held there. It's a fact, however, that MN has been very close in the last two election cycles, though even to this day many Obama supporters poo poo it. Gotta fight hard in MN. It's a swing state now, the HHH glory days are done and gone.

Convention bump.

I won't update my own projection summary http://dawabbit.mine.nu/ProjectionSummary.html until around the 28th.

I have some trust for the guy at fivethirtyeight (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html) so I don't think its worth even doing much of the poll stuff until then when the convention bounce is almost totally eliminated.

Pro-Obama Nate at fuvethirtyeight.com now shows McCain witha 56% chance of winning in Novemeber.

The NY Post says internal Dem and GOP party polling shows a tightening race in NY, with public polls starting to come out today that will make Dems fret.

hrebendorf, have you been up north lately? They can't find jobs, pay for heating oil, fuel or health care, but my un-scientific poll found a lot of these folks supporting McCain. It doesn't make sense, but they are.

The state polls lag behind, they are now showing McCain's convention bumb, but next week will settle back down to reality. I do wonder though, if Franken, is dragging down Obama?

I haven't seen much Obama money spent here. Perhaps a couple bucks would help. All I've seen is McCain's 'Original Mavricks' ad. Ugh.

Eric,

It would probably be a good idea to mention that both of these are polls of "likely voters" and not registered voters as I thought that in this election cyle surveys of registered voters are viewed as more accurate.

I live in Minnesota, but don't believe a survey of the people I know gives me a decent sample of how this state will go. I do know, however, that historically we have the highest voter turnout in the nation and with same day registration, this year should be no exception.

My sense is that Minnesota still goes for Obama, but that he may have to spend resources here that he would otherwise not want to spend if the polls didn't indicate a tightening race.

"A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows that the race is now a dead heat between Barack Obama and John McCain, each supported by 45 percent of (LIKELY VOTERS) in the state." (Emphasis added)

"SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Minnesota adults 09/10/08 through 09/11/08. Of them, 836 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 734 were determined by SurveyUSA to be LIKELY VOTERS in the 11/04/08 general election." (Emphasis added)

Let's not forget that the fair-minded and practical folks of MN (I am a transplant to NYC) elected Keith Ellison to Congress. And although the 5th district to elect him includes the very Democratic Minneapolis area it also includes more conservative suburbs including St Louis Park w/ a high Jewish population.

Obama will Take MN, have no doubt.