Ohio, it seems, is a wash. Perhaps better to prioritize (and hope for) Virginia?

Nate Silver has good commentary on these polls at fivethirtyeight.

The upshot of his analysis: on the whole, it's not bad news for Obama. The Rep. bounce has been weaker in swing states than in national polling. Our position has strengthened especially in FL and CO, and if we can hold onto either one of those states, we don't need OH. Since this should be the high point of the Republican post-convention bounce, there's reason for optimism.

The basic reality of the race is that Obama really shouldn't have much trouble holding Kerry's states and has multiple pathways (and a much better ground game than Kerry's)to get to 271 from there. Make a few adjustments in messaging- primarily hitting McCain harder and starting some fights instead of just reacting- and all will be well. Where McCain is now should be more or less his high-water mark unless Obama screws up pretty badly.

Boy, if you look at the pollster.com graphs on the right side of the page, you see what a close race it's shaping up to be -- esp. in CO, OH, and VA! Remember, we only need to take one of those three (or FL).

I think these are all very good numbers for Obama. considering they are coming directly after McCain's convention bounce.

The SUSA poll in WA worries me a bit but Obama is still close to 50% even in this post-GOP convention poll. Methinks Gov. Palin will have a short-lived love affair with voters in the West/Pac-NWest. (see Ras' latest CO, which gives Obama a 3pt lead and puts him close to 50%)

This all comes with the disclaimer - I'm still scare shitless.

Here's a thought I've been kicking around. Please tell me if I'm crazy:

Why can't Obama's surrogates (Obama?) spell out Palin's radical Right beliefs? I understand that mentioning her family by name is a dicey prospect but certainly her *views* must be made plain.

Seems to me her radical views ought to be made public.

caveat: I'm not proposing campaign strategy-just looking for feedback...

1)One could make the case that Palin is exactly the sort of choice that runs up the popular vote nationwide while hurting McCain with independent voters in the swing states.

2) Democrats REALLY NEED TO GET OUT THE NEWS THAT PALIN IS A WANNABE BOOK-BANNER AND LIBRARIAN-FIRER. Out of all the negative stories about her past, that seems to me the one most likely to result in almost universal scorn.

Interesting!!! The Rasmussen polls were done with FOX News Channel, so for what it's worth much cannot made of Rasmussen.

Rasmussen is also a frequent guest of Fox Noise and Hannity.

I want to know more about the so-called "test of loyalty" mentioned here; http://www.adn.com/sarah-palin/story/515512.html

What the...? Is this a common occurence in municipalities? That a newly sworn in mayor asks for the resignation of the major department heads as a "test of loyatly". How does that work? If they refuse they are fired? On what grounds?

THIS has to be looked into. That's some seriously strange and I would guess not "Standard operating procedure."

Anyone else ever hear of such?

Well this polling indicates to me that McCain is boosting his support amongst Republicans, but that support is pushing into states that are already into the GOP column. Colorado appears to be going for Obama, Florida is now in play and Nevada will be a state to look for in the future. If Obama holds all the Kerry states and with some more effort and the likely descent of McCain-Palin's convention bounce over time, Obama I believe will hold New Hampshire and Michigan. New Mexico and Iowa are solidly blue now, Obama posted a 15 point lead in Iowa before the GOP convention and that will be extremely difficult for McCain to break down. That gives Obama a total of 260 electoral votes that he's be able to work with. Colorado+Nevada would push him over, Colorado+Montana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia on their own. I think nationally the Mile High Stadium idea was potentially damaging to Obama, but it was brilliant for bringing in people who'll be the foot soldiers for the campaign locally in Colorado. I think these numbers will remain steady and improve as the GOP convention bump declines.

Al Giordano over on The Field notes that the polling for Virginia isn't really representative of the demographics that will be bolstered by GOTV efforts and the energizing of the Democratic ground game. Demographics favourable to Obama are under-represented, which bodes well for the future of the campaign and for the state to turn blue for the first time since 1964 if McCain is only leading by 2 percentage points.

I'm watching this all from afar, but isn't it true that McCain has been hitting the batlleground states with primary money in the lead up to the RNC.

Could that have contributed to spikes and won't that fade off now... down here its playing that he's far less cashed up than Obama

Over the past two weeks we have seen how malleable are the minds and views of a sizeable portion of those persons at the center of the spectrum and this is one hell of a unique election in that we have a candidate of African-American heritage. How many of those at the center will say one thing and do exactly the opposite after being polled? How many would say that they intend to vote Obama and end up voting McCain as oppossed to vice-versa? Right: there isn't any doubt about that the answer to that.

Unless Obama has his support nailed down solid by a hard-hitting, populist campaign, I think that we are in for a big disappointment nine weeks from today.